Things are set up perfectly now heading into Conference Championship weekend. It’s like a playoff before the playoff. I mean, we have Florida State & Georgia Tech, Oregon and UofSuck, Alabama and Missouri, Wisconsin and Ohio State, and of course – TCU and Iowa State. Wait, what? Come on Big12. Get your act together, grab a couple more teams, and get a conference championship already! It’s going to be extremely interesting to see what happens if TCU beats Iowa State (and they’re a 35-point favorite) and Baylor beats Kansas State. Can the committee all of the sudden reward Baylor and punish TCU? Or do we wind up with two Big 12 teams is FSU, Oregon, or Alabama go down?
For this update, let’s do a series of numbers games for the Top-10 from this weekend.
1. Three teams with 9+ wins the last five years. Alabama, Oregon, and………yep, Nebraska. The main reason Pelini was fired wasn’t because he won nine games every year – you don’t remember those. What you do remember is the losses; the bad losses, especially at the end of the year in the heart of conference play.
2. 4-0 or 0-4, depending how the look at it. That was the record of the ACC versus the SEC this weekend in their annual in-state rivalries. Great weekend for the ACC; not so much for the SEC (especially with Mississippi State losing the Egg Bowl) – though, Alabama can get the last laugh with a win against Missouri and be the lone representative of the SEC in the playoff.
3. 22-1, 0-2: Oregon’s record the last two years versus everyone, and their record the last two years against UofSuck. I guess it’s fitting that they’ll play in the PAC-12 Championship. And, if UofSuck gets yet another win against the Ducks, they’ll probably sneak into #4, with a little bit of help from Kansas State, Wisconsin, and possibly Georgia Tech.
4. 1: The number of teams that will have played 12 games against Power5 opponents. Must be an SEC team, right? Maybe Notre Dame? Perhaps a PAC-12 team? Nope. Florida State. That’s right, say what you want about their perceived schedule, their conference, their off the field problems, their game day struggles, their ranking in the playoffs right now, etc.; they will have played more Power5 opponents than anyone else this year. And up until now, they’re undefeated. Until this weekend, that is.
5. 566 and 628: No championship team since 2000 has given up more than 566 yards in a game. ‘Bama gave up nearly a hondo more than that against Auburn this weekend.
6. 7-0: Stanford’s record this year when scoring 20+ points (0-5 when scoring less than 20). What happened to the offense this year? Getting shut down by USC and Utah is one thing – but only scoring 14 against Notre Dame’s worst defense ever? 10 against an ASU team that gave up 62 to UCLA and was 75th in the country in scoring defense? For being the 2nd best scoring defense in the country (behind Ole Miss), you gotta win more than seven games, Stanford.
7. 1446, 133, & 15: If you thought Auburn and Alabama lit up the scoreboard, you obviously didn’t catch the Marshall/Western Kentucky game. 15 TD passes between the two, 133 total points, and 1446 total yards. And good for WKU to go for two in the first overtime. You had 738 yards of total offense; was there really a doubt you couldn’t get a couple more?
8. Three in the Top-10: If I had asked after week 2, which conference would have three teams in the Top-10 going into Championship weekend, how many would’ve said the Big 12? Sure, we knew the SEC (particularly the West) was going to beat each other up, but the way the TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State have persevered has been impressive. But, as the schedule is set up, one of them is going down this weekend; which means the Big 12’s lack of a championship game still has major implications for the playoff. There’s a still an outside chance that the Big-12 gets both TCU and Baylor in the playoff, which no one saw coming this year.
9. 28 and 12.6: Despite being on a 28 game winning streak, Florida State is only outscoring opponents this year by an average of 12.6 points a game. That’s the lowest amount for an undefeated team in the past ten years, and when compared to their 39.5 points per game margin of victory last year, it’s easy to see why FSU is slipping down the rankings, despite continuing to win. And I thought margin of victory wasn’t supposed to play into the committee’s considerations?
10. 1st in 127 years: Not only did Notre Dame give up 30+ points in seven straight games for the first time in the 127 year history of their football program, they also allowed six passing TD’s for the first time ever in their finale against rival USC. Yikes, the Irish were one marginal call away from upsetting then #1 FSU on the road and remaining undefeated, to this; all in just a few weeks? I bet Brian Kelly is wishing some NFL teams will come calling again…
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (12-0) – To be the best, you’ve gotta beat the best. Until they lose, FSU has to be #1.
#2. Oregon (11-1) – Are you excited, or petrified to be seeing UofSuck for the third time in two years?
#3. Alabama (11-1) – If Georgia beat Missouri 34-0, how bad will ‘Bama beat them?
#4. Baylor (10-1) – Don’t worry, if you take care of business, you’ll leap from TCU in the playoff poll. But, that’s a big if…
#5. TCU (10-1) – Iowa State has a history of pulling huge upsets to end the season. Just ask Nebraska and Oklahoma State, among others. But this one isn’t in Ames.
#6. Ohio State (10-1) – Is it ironic that Ohio State basketball was punished in the playoff rankings because of a key injury? You know the committee is going to be watching this one very close.
#7. Arizona (10-2) – Dating back to 1959, I don’t think UofSuck has ever won the PAC-12 outright in football.
#8. Michigan State (10-2) – Not gonna move much higher.
#9. Kansas State (9-2) – #4 is still a long shot, but within the mathematical realm of possibility (meaning, there’s no chance in hell)
#10. Georgia Tech (10-2) – You can make a lot of people happy if you can pull the upset.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota – Signed, sealed, delivered.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Baylor
#2 Oregon v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State v. Alabama – Of course, if the current playoff committee rankings hold true, this will be one of the semi-finals. Rumor has it, under the BCS system, these teams would be #1 and #2. Make it happen, committee.
Week 15 Big Games:
Florida State v. Georgia Tech – The blueprint will be the same as it’s been all year. FSU will find themselves behind in the first half, Winston will throw a couple of picks, and the Seminoles will rally in the second half. But, the difference in this game will be if Georgia Tech can 1) control the line of scrimmage for all 60 minutes, 2) frustrate the FSU defense with long drives, 3) win the turnover battle (especially in the second half), and 4) punch in TD’s and not FG’s inside the redzone. If three of those things happen, Georgia Tech pulls the upset. And, FSU is due for a loss. I like Georgia Tech 34 Florida State 31
Alabama v. Missouri – We’ve talked all year about how Alabama has had some weaknesses and holes, and yet here they are. Again. Missouri on the other hand, wasn’t supposed to be here. After getting blown out 34-0 to Georgia, Missouri has won six straight, including four as underdogs, to get back to the SEC Championship Game for the second year in a row. The difference will be this: 8-1 v. 0-5. Saban is 8-1 in conference and national championship games, while Missouri is 0-5 in conference championship games all time. Alabama has the experience, the coaching, the depth, the ability to win with both offense and defense, and of course: “the process.” Alabama 41 Missouri 27
Wisconsin v. Ohio State – After Braxton Miller went out in the preseason, and then Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech, everyone counted them out. But, they’ve steamrolled through the rest of the season, only to lose their other starting QB to injury, who set all sorts of records in place of Miller. We know what we’re going to get out of Wisconsin, a steady dose of Melvin Gordon, even though he’s got a sore ankle. Ohio State is going to load up the box and stop Gordon, and play extremely conservative on offense with their third string QB. Look for a low scoring, field position dominated grudge match. And in the end, I like Ohio State to come out on top: 23 to 20.
Kanas State @ Baylor – Baylor can win the Big 12 (regardless of what the committee says) with a win here and in my opinion solidify their spot in the Top-4 because of their head-to-head win over TCU. Kansas State can ruin things for the Bears, and it might be a bit easier, considering Baylor almost lost to Texas Tech and Bryce Perry is beat up pretty good. But, the bottom line is this: despite all of the good wins in his career, and despite how well he’s built the K State program, Bill Synder is 0-10 in Top-10 match-ups. That alone favors the Bears. Baylor 34 Kansas State 24
Week 15 Game of the Week:
Arizona v. Oregon – Arizona’s two game winning streak over the Ducks is largely because of injury. Last year, Mariota had a bum leg, and this year, Oregon didn’t have an offense line. The Ducks are healthy and hungry, and it’s really hard to beat a Top-5 team twice in the same year. In fact, the last 13 times that a team has faced a Top-5 team twice in one year, they’ve only beaten them both times once: in 1999 when Alabama knocked off Top-5 Florida twice. It’ll also help that this game is on Friday night – all alone on TV – and the Ducks will secure themselves a spot in the inaugural playoff: Oregon 44 UofSuck 31
Until next time…
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Week 13 Recap and Week 14 Preview
“ARTICLE 4. Persons subject to the rules shall not intentionally contact a game official forcibly during the game. PENALTY—Administer as a dead-ball foul. 15 yards from the succeeding spot. Automatic first down for fouls by Team B if not in conflict with other rules. Automatic disqualification.” That’s the text of the rule. Winston broke it twice, and wasn’t tossed out; let alone given a 15-yard penalty. Sure, it happened in the 3rd quarter, and probably didn’t impact the game directly at the time, but once again, Famous Jameis’ behavior is reinforced that rules don’t apply to him. I can’t wait to see what he gets away with next. Maybe he should try murder. He can talk to Ray Lewis about the best ways to not only get away with murder, but improve your image over time, post-murder. In other news, FSU keeps winning extremely close games against inferior teams. They’ll lose to Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, though. I’ll break that one down later, but let’s just say that I don’t really care if they win or lose that; in fact, I kind of want them to win it, because I want to see them get blitzed by any of the other three teams in the Top-4. Then again, they still need to get by Florida this weekend…(upset alert?)
In the meantime, let’s check out the Top-10 from this weekend (with an emphasis on why the Top-7 teams should be in the Top-4, and why they shouldn’t).
1. With Arkansas’s second consecutive shut-out against a ranked SEC team, the SEC West now has all seven teams bowl eligible – the first time that’s ever happened. It’s fitting that the best Division, top-to-bottom, we’ve seen, maybe ever, will be heavily represented in bowl games. Wow, that was a lot of commas.
2. With yet another second half collapse in the second half of the season, Nebraska’s in danger of losing four games (if they lose @ Iowa this weekend) for the seventh straight season; certainly not Nebraska standards, but also maybe the new norm. But, for me, it’s not just that Nebraska is losing, it’s how they’re losing. Getting blown out by Big 10 teams late in the season, and losing at home after building comfortable leads is starting (continuing?) to wear on the Husker faithful. But, I said it last week; they better not fire Pelini unless they have a committed replacement – and that replacement better be Scott Frost.
3. Speaking of mediocre finishes, Notre Dame has given up 30 or more points for the sixth straight game, the first time that's happened in all 126 seasons of Irish football. Sure, injuries and suspensions have played a part, not to mention their turnover prone offense putting the defense in tough spots all year, but yikes, it’s been a rough second half for the Irish. And of course they head down to Southern California this weekend to take on USC, so it’s likely to get even rougher. I said it all year (okay, except for maybe one week), the Irish were not a Top-10 team this year, despite the good start (against crappy opponents) and the close loss to undefeated FSU (who wouldn’t be in the Top-10 if they had lost that). Look for Kelly’s name to come up for the Florida job, or likely even some NFL jobs. And if Nebraska is going to be a tough spot to find a quality replacement, I don’t even know where Notre Dame goes with their search.
4. I still say Florida State is the #1 team in the land until they lose. That’s just how it should work. Defending champs, Heisman trophy winner, 27 game winning streak, and part of a Power 5 conference (sorry Marshall). If you’re not going to value undefeatedness (if that’s even a word), then maybe Arkansas should be considered for the Top-4 considering how they’re playing right now. And, there’s that old adage in sports that you’re #1 until your beaten. I don’t like ‘em, I hope they lose, I think they’ll lose, but in the meantime, FSU should be #1.
5. The UofSuck loss is looking better and better for Oregon, and let’s not forget they were a stupid celebration penalty away from forcing UofSuck into a FG try late in that game. Things could’ve easilty ended differently. The Michigan State win isn’t as impressive, but it’s still the most impressive non-conference win for the Top-7 teams. The PAC-12 South surge will help Oregon as well, as would a rematch against UofSuck in the PAC-12 title game (where Oregon would win this time by three TDs). Yep, Oregon deserves a shot in the Top-4 (assuming they win out).
6. The Tide has looked shaky at times, and dominant at times; and anyone who comes out of the SEC-West with only one loss deserves a shot. If they win the SEC it’s a no-brainer, and if they lose to Auburn or in the SEC Championship game, they’re rightfully out. Interestingly enough, Alabama would’ve been in the playoff last year, considering their only blemish was that 109-yard FG return in the Iron Bowl. Which gets us to…
7. Mississippi State. If they win the Egg Bowl and Alabama wins the Iron Bowl, Mississippi State is stuck at 11-1, and with (in my opinion) a very rightful claim to #4. They’re only loss would’ve been to the Champion of the best Division by far this year (and maybe ever?), in a relatively close game. Sure, Alabama defense shut down the Bulldogs for three and half quarters, but Mississippi State’s defense also played well enough to keep them in that game. But, whether or not MSU gets #4 will have nothing to do with them, but what happens with Baylor, Ohio State, and committee’s perception about SEC fatigue.
8. We all know Baylor’s non-conference schedule was bad (then again, so were many other teams, and some could say Florida State’s in-conference schedule is bad), but they did beat TCU and Oklahoma in the conference. If they win out, they win the Big-12, and have the head-to-head over TCU. That should be enough to get them ranked above TCU. But will it be enough to get them to #4? Well, Kansas State can save us this entire problem by beating Baylor on December 6th. And if not, that’s another quality win for the Bears. If it comes down to Baylor or TCU for #4, I have to take Baylor for having the head-to-head advantage against TCU. But that also means they’re going to need at least a Mississippi State loss.
9. But, one thing that TCU’s resume brings to the table the following: they are 3-1 versus current AP Top-25 teams; out of the Top-7 teams, they’re the only one that has played four current Top-25 (Oregon’s played three; everyone else two) and beaten three current Top-25. Should Minnesota beat Wisconsin this weekend, and Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game, you have to give serious consideration to TCU – they’d be a conference co-champ (with their only loss on the road to the other co-champ) and also would’ve beaten any Power 5 champ. But, as good of a story as Minnesota has been, I don’t see them winning both of those games. So, TCU needs a bit of help, and perhaps a committee that will be gun shy about putting two SEC teams into the playoff which could result in a championship game played between two SEC-West teams. Again. Part of the reason we have the playoff is to avoid seeing that again.
10. Finally, Ohio State is sneaking up in the polls, but I still can’t get over the loss to a now 5-6 Virginia Tech at home early in the season. Of all the one-loss teams, that’s by far the worst loss. At least Baylor’s loss was on the road, following the emotional win against TCU, to a pretty good West Virginia Team that played Alabama, TCU, and Kansas State to games decided by 10, 1, and 6. I just don’t see a way for Ohio State to get there, unless TCU, Baylor, and Mississippi State all lose. And I don’t think that’s going to happen. The final thing that’s not going to happen, but would be interesting if it did: FSU loses to Georgia Tech, Oregon loses to ASU/UofA, Alabama loses to Auburn, Mississippi State loses to Ole Miss, Missouri beats whoever comes out of the SEC West in the SEC Championship, Ohio State holds serve. We could wind up with TCU, Baylor, Georgia (a 2-loss team who didn’t win their Division), and Ohio State in the Top-4. Think that would shake things up a bit?
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (11-0) – Living dangerously, but still undefeated.
#2. Oregon (10-1) – Flyin’ high.
#3. Alabama (10-1) – The Iron Bowl is here!
#4. Mississippi State (10-1) – Eggs, anyone?
#5. Baylor (9-1) – No love for the likely Big-12 Champs!
#6. TCU (9-1) – Best resume of any Top-10 team?
#7. Ohio State (10-1) – September 6th is sooooo long ago.
#8. Georgia (9-2) – Is it me, or does Georgia always lose two games but then find themselves back in the Top-10?
#9. Michigan State (9-2) – Two pretty good losses, but zero pretty good wins.
#10. UCLA (9-2) – Too far behind with too little time left.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota – Unless Oregon State pulls the upset in the Civil War, Mariota has the Heisman wrapped up.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Mississippi State
#2 Oregon v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State v. Alabama – Sticking with my preseason prediction, at least for another week.
Week 14 Big Games:
TCU @ Texas – With wins against Texas and Iowa State, TCU can share the Big-12 and possibly get to #4 in the Playoff rankings. Many are saying that Texas is surging, but let’s look at their schedule. Their five Big-12 wins are against the bottom five in the Big-12, so the reason they appear to be surging late in the year is because they played Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State earlier in the year. And, after nearly blowing it against Kansas two weeks ago, TCU will come into this one focused and ready to go. I like TCU to win, and win big: 48 to 27.
Stanford @ UCLA – UCLA can win the PAC-12 South with a victory here, and for Stanford to pull the upset, it’s pretty easy: score points. Stanford is 0-5 when scoring 17 or less and 6-0 when scoring more than 17. In recent years, this is the type of matchup where I think Stanford would prevail: short week, UCLA off a big win over USC, PAC-12 South on-the-line pressure, etc. But, this isn’t the Stanford of years past. I think Stanford gets to 20+, but I also think UCLA gets almost double that. UCLA 37 Stanford 24.
Arizona State @ Arizona – These teams won’t know if they’re playing for the PAC-12 South or not (as Stanford/UCLA is at the same time), but in the Territorial Cup, that doesn’t matter. As is usually the case, the inter-state rivalry games have been close and crazy the last several years with seven of the last ten decided by seven or less. Also, as usual, you can throw out home field advantage – the road team has won four out of the last five. But, the big interest in this game, this year, is that both have nine wins together for the first time since 1975, and both are ranked coming into this one for the first time since 1986. The key in this one will be ASU’s defense (or lack thereof) against either UofSuck’s injured QB, or their backup who has never started a game. ASU’s pressure defense is prone to big plays, but also to giving up big plays. And in a rivalry game, there will be big plays; and lots of them. UofSuck 52 ASU 45.
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss – Dreams of an undefeated matchup in the Egg Bowl went south pretty quick, with Ole Miss dropping three straight SEC games and Mississippi State dropping a game against Alabama. Mississippi State needs this one against “that school from up north” to remain in the playoff discussion and the key to this one will be, of course, which Bo Wallace shows up. I’m betting on Bad Bo. Mississippi State 34 Ole Miss 23
Georgia Tech @ Georgia – It’s been since 1966 that these two teams have such good records coming into the game known as “Clean, Old Fashioned Hate.” But, despite my early pick that Georgia Tech beats Florida State in the ACC Championship next weekend, I’ve gotta go with Georgia in this one. Why? Well, Mark Richt is 12-1 against the Yellow Jackets. No more Gurley, but Chubb will continue doing what he’s been doing all year, running downhill. Georgia 34 Georgia Tech 27.
Minnesota @ Wisconsin – The battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe has extra meaning this year, as the winner goes to the Big 10 Championship game. Minnesota is a two-TD underdog, but that hasn’t stopped them all year. The problem for Minnesota is that they haven’t won in Madison in 20 years, and Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon is healthy while Minnesota’s top back, David Cobb, is not. Look for Minnesota to do exactly what Iowa tried to do last week – stop Gordon and force Wisconsin to throw. That didn’t work out well for Iowa, as Gordon averaged 6.5 yards/carry on 30+ carries. I like Wisconsin to tire out Minnesota and get the win, but not by as big as Vegas thinks: Wisconsin 30 Minnesota 24.
Week 14 Game of the Week:
Auburn @ Alabama – The winner of the Iron Bowl has played in the National Championship the last five years, and we don’t need to recap last year’s incredible game. Though, it would only take a second (that’s for you, Geno). Alabama is once again a ~10 point favorite in this one, but there’s one very interesting stat to look at. In the last 10 years, Auburn is 6-0 against Alabama when they’re ranked, and 0-4 when they’re not. But, the difference this year is the wheels are coming off at Auburn, while Alabama is peaking. Roll Tide. Alabama 27 Auburn 20.
Until next time…
In the meantime, let’s check out the Top-10 from this weekend (with an emphasis on why the Top-7 teams should be in the Top-4, and why they shouldn’t).
1. With Arkansas’s second consecutive shut-out against a ranked SEC team, the SEC West now has all seven teams bowl eligible – the first time that’s ever happened. It’s fitting that the best Division, top-to-bottom, we’ve seen, maybe ever, will be heavily represented in bowl games. Wow, that was a lot of commas.
2. With yet another second half collapse in the second half of the season, Nebraska’s in danger of losing four games (if they lose @ Iowa this weekend) for the seventh straight season; certainly not Nebraska standards, but also maybe the new norm. But, for me, it’s not just that Nebraska is losing, it’s how they’re losing. Getting blown out by Big 10 teams late in the season, and losing at home after building comfortable leads is starting (continuing?) to wear on the Husker faithful. But, I said it last week; they better not fire Pelini unless they have a committed replacement – and that replacement better be Scott Frost.
3. Speaking of mediocre finishes, Notre Dame has given up 30 or more points for the sixth straight game, the first time that's happened in all 126 seasons of Irish football. Sure, injuries and suspensions have played a part, not to mention their turnover prone offense putting the defense in tough spots all year, but yikes, it’s been a rough second half for the Irish. And of course they head down to Southern California this weekend to take on USC, so it’s likely to get even rougher. I said it all year (okay, except for maybe one week), the Irish were not a Top-10 team this year, despite the good start (against crappy opponents) and the close loss to undefeated FSU (who wouldn’t be in the Top-10 if they had lost that). Look for Kelly’s name to come up for the Florida job, or likely even some NFL jobs. And if Nebraska is going to be a tough spot to find a quality replacement, I don’t even know where Notre Dame goes with their search.
4. I still say Florida State is the #1 team in the land until they lose. That’s just how it should work. Defending champs, Heisman trophy winner, 27 game winning streak, and part of a Power 5 conference (sorry Marshall). If you’re not going to value undefeatedness (if that’s even a word), then maybe Arkansas should be considered for the Top-4 considering how they’re playing right now. And, there’s that old adage in sports that you’re #1 until your beaten. I don’t like ‘em, I hope they lose, I think they’ll lose, but in the meantime, FSU should be #1.
5. The UofSuck loss is looking better and better for Oregon, and let’s not forget they were a stupid celebration penalty away from forcing UofSuck into a FG try late in that game. Things could’ve easilty ended differently. The Michigan State win isn’t as impressive, but it’s still the most impressive non-conference win for the Top-7 teams. The PAC-12 South surge will help Oregon as well, as would a rematch against UofSuck in the PAC-12 title game (where Oregon would win this time by three TDs). Yep, Oregon deserves a shot in the Top-4 (assuming they win out).
6. The Tide has looked shaky at times, and dominant at times; and anyone who comes out of the SEC-West with only one loss deserves a shot. If they win the SEC it’s a no-brainer, and if they lose to Auburn or in the SEC Championship game, they’re rightfully out. Interestingly enough, Alabama would’ve been in the playoff last year, considering their only blemish was that 109-yard FG return in the Iron Bowl. Which gets us to…
7. Mississippi State. If they win the Egg Bowl and Alabama wins the Iron Bowl, Mississippi State is stuck at 11-1, and with (in my opinion) a very rightful claim to #4. They’re only loss would’ve been to the Champion of the best Division by far this year (and maybe ever?), in a relatively close game. Sure, Alabama defense shut down the Bulldogs for three and half quarters, but Mississippi State’s defense also played well enough to keep them in that game. But, whether or not MSU gets #4 will have nothing to do with them, but what happens with Baylor, Ohio State, and committee’s perception about SEC fatigue.
8. We all know Baylor’s non-conference schedule was bad (then again, so were many other teams, and some could say Florida State’s in-conference schedule is bad), but they did beat TCU and Oklahoma in the conference. If they win out, they win the Big-12, and have the head-to-head over TCU. That should be enough to get them ranked above TCU. But will it be enough to get them to #4? Well, Kansas State can save us this entire problem by beating Baylor on December 6th. And if not, that’s another quality win for the Bears. If it comes down to Baylor or TCU for #4, I have to take Baylor for having the head-to-head advantage against TCU. But that also means they’re going to need at least a Mississippi State loss.
9. But, one thing that TCU’s resume brings to the table the following: they are 3-1 versus current AP Top-25 teams; out of the Top-7 teams, they’re the only one that has played four current Top-25 (Oregon’s played three; everyone else two) and beaten three current Top-25. Should Minnesota beat Wisconsin this weekend, and Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game, you have to give serious consideration to TCU – they’d be a conference co-champ (with their only loss on the road to the other co-champ) and also would’ve beaten any Power 5 champ. But, as good of a story as Minnesota has been, I don’t see them winning both of those games. So, TCU needs a bit of help, and perhaps a committee that will be gun shy about putting two SEC teams into the playoff which could result in a championship game played between two SEC-West teams. Again. Part of the reason we have the playoff is to avoid seeing that again.
10. Finally, Ohio State is sneaking up in the polls, but I still can’t get over the loss to a now 5-6 Virginia Tech at home early in the season. Of all the one-loss teams, that’s by far the worst loss. At least Baylor’s loss was on the road, following the emotional win against TCU, to a pretty good West Virginia Team that played Alabama, TCU, and Kansas State to games decided by 10, 1, and 6. I just don’t see a way for Ohio State to get there, unless TCU, Baylor, and Mississippi State all lose. And I don’t think that’s going to happen. The final thing that’s not going to happen, but would be interesting if it did: FSU loses to Georgia Tech, Oregon loses to ASU/UofA, Alabama loses to Auburn, Mississippi State loses to Ole Miss, Missouri beats whoever comes out of the SEC West in the SEC Championship, Ohio State holds serve. We could wind up with TCU, Baylor, Georgia (a 2-loss team who didn’t win their Division), and Ohio State in the Top-4. Think that would shake things up a bit?
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (11-0) – Living dangerously, but still undefeated.
#2. Oregon (10-1) – Flyin’ high.
#3. Alabama (10-1) – The Iron Bowl is here!
#4. Mississippi State (10-1) – Eggs, anyone?
#5. Baylor (9-1) – No love for the likely Big-12 Champs!
#6. TCU (9-1) – Best resume of any Top-10 team?
#7. Ohio State (10-1) – September 6th is sooooo long ago.
#8. Georgia (9-2) – Is it me, or does Georgia always lose two games but then find themselves back in the Top-10?
#9. Michigan State (9-2) – Two pretty good losses, but zero pretty good wins.
#10. UCLA (9-2) – Too far behind with too little time left.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota – Unless Oregon State pulls the upset in the Civil War, Mariota has the Heisman wrapped up.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Mississippi State
#2 Oregon v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State v. Alabama – Sticking with my preseason prediction, at least for another week.
Week 14 Big Games:
TCU @ Texas – With wins against Texas and Iowa State, TCU can share the Big-12 and possibly get to #4 in the Playoff rankings. Many are saying that Texas is surging, but let’s look at their schedule. Their five Big-12 wins are against the bottom five in the Big-12, so the reason they appear to be surging late in the year is because they played Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State earlier in the year. And, after nearly blowing it against Kansas two weeks ago, TCU will come into this one focused and ready to go. I like TCU to win, and win big: 48 to 27.
Stanford @ UCLA – UCLA can win the PAC-12 South with a victory here, and for Stanford to pull the upset, it’s pretty easy: score points. Stanford is 0-5 when scoring 17 or less and 6-0 when scoring more than 17. In recent years, this is the type of matchup where I think Stanford would prevail: short week, UCLA off a big win over USC, PAC-12 South on-the-line pressure, etc. But, this isn’t the Stanford of years past. I think Stanford gets to 20+, but I also think UCLA gets almost double that. UCLA 37 Stanford 24.
Arizona State @ Arizona – These teams won’t know if they’re playing for the PAC-12 South or not (as Stanford/UCLA is at the same time), but in the Territorial Cup, that doesn’t matter. As is usually the case, the inter-state rivalry games have been close and crazy the last several years with seven of the last ten decided by seven or less. Also, as usual, you can throw out home field advantage – the road team has won four out of the last five. But, the big interest in this game, this year, is that both have nine wins together for the first time since 1975, and both are ranked coming into this one for the first time since 1986. The key in this one will be ASU’s defense (or lack thereof) against either UofSuck’s injured QB, or their backup who has never started a game. ASU’s pressure defense is prone to big plays, but also to giving up big plays. And in a rivalry game, there will be big plays; and lots of them. UofSuck 52 ASU 45.
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss – Dreams of an undefeated matchup in the Egg Bowl went south pretty quick, with Ole Miss dropping three straight SEC games and Mississippi State dropping a game against Alabama. Mississippi State needs this one against “that school from up north” to remain in the playoff discussion and the key to this one will be, of course, which Bo Wallace shows up. I’m betting on Bad Bo. Mississippi State 34 Ole Miss 23
Georgia Tech @ Georgia – It’s been since 1966 that these two teams have such good records coming into the game known as “Clean, Old Fashioned Hate.” But, despite my early pick that Georgia Tech beats Florida State in the ACC Championship next weekend, I’ve gotta go with Georgia in this one. Why? Well, Mark Richt is 12-1 against the Yellow Jackets. No more Gurley, but Chubb will continue doing what he’s been doing all year, running downhill. Georgia 34 Georgia Tech 27.
Minnesota @ Wisconsin – The battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe has extra meaning this year, as the winner goes to the Big 10 Championship game. Minnesota is a two-TD underdog, but that hasn’t stopped them all year. The problem for Minnesota is that they haven’t won in Madison in 20 years, and Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon is healthy while Minnesota’s top back, David Cobb, is not. Look for Minnesota to do exactly what Iowa tried to do last week – stop Gordon and force Wisconsin to throw. That didn’t work out well for Iowa, as Gordon averaged 6.5 yards/carry on 30+ carries. I like Wisconsin to tire out Minnesota and get the win, but not by as big as Vegas thinks: Wisconsin 30 Minnesota 24.
Week 14 Game of the Week:
Auburn @ Alabama – The winner of the Iron Bowl has played in the National Championship the last five years, and we don’t need to recap last year’s incredible game. Though, it would only take a second (that’s for you, Geno). Alabama is once again a ~10 point favorite in this one, but there’s one very interesting stat to look at. In the last 10 years, Auburn is 6-0 against Alabama when they’re ranked, and 0-4 when they’re not. But, the difference this year is the wheels are coming off at Auburn, while Alabama is peaking. Roll Tide. Alabama 27 Auburn 20.
Until next time…
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
Week 12 Recap and Week 13 Preview
“Game control.” That’s the new phrase the playoff committee is using as they try to figure out who in the heck to pick for #4 (#1-3 are pretty clear if they all win out – but that’s still a big if). Head-to-head doesn’t matter (right Baylor?), conference championships don’t matter (right TCU and Mississippi State?), who you lost to doesn’t matter (right Baylor, Ohio State, and Oregon?), who you beat doesn’t matter (right Alabama?), and that you haven’t lost at all doesn’t matter (right Florida State?); so we’re left with this “game control” phrase to pick the Top 4. Clearly, Alabama leads in that factor, as they’ve really controlled every game (with the exception of about three plays in their lone loss at Mississippi). My Top-4 is a little more scientific: Who do I think are the best overall teams in football, number one through four. Okay, maybe that sound as subjective as the Heisman criteria, but until someone, anyone, beats Florida State – they’re still #1. Oregon and Alabama are a toss-up for #2 and #3, and while #4 may be pretty cloudy right now, should #4-7 all win out, I still say Mississippi State has the most impressive resume for that final spot (and I’ve money on the SEC getting two teams in the playoff; so just call me Jameis Winston with my pick for #4). In the meantime, let’s check out the Top-4 from this weekend (for the four teams fighting for the #4 spot).
1. The difference between Auburn’s miracle run last year and Florida State’s run this year, is Auburn was actually coming from behind to beat good teams. Florida State fell behind an average-at-best team yet again, and rallied yet again. I believe that’s now seven comeback wins this year for the defending champs. Regardless of who they’re playing, that’s impressive that they’ve been able to battle back all of those times without slipping up. Even though I still have them as #1, they probably don’t deserve to be there, but assuming they win out, they do deserve a Top-4 ranking as they’re the only Power 5 team undefeated.
2. There’s still a bunch of “what if’s” out there regarding the Top-4, thanks to one half of the divisions in many of the conferences looking to play spoiler. What if Missouri beats Alabama in SEC Championship? What if Georgia Tech upsets FSU in the ACC? What if someone actually steps forward and wins the PAC-12 South? What a mess we have out west, with five teams still in contention in the PAC-12 South to see who gets steamrolled by Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship. ASU was sailing along until they went to Corvallis this weekend and got smoked by the Beavers. I wouldn’t mind seeing a UofSuck/Oregon rematch in the PAC-12 Championship, if for nothing else to see the Ducks beat the snot out of them like they should’ve the first time. UofSuck is still around because of some bizarre finishes. The latest being the “ice the kicker” actually backfiring this time, as their kicker missed the FG that was attempted after the timeout was called, only to make the game winner after the time out. The PAC-12 South is the wild, wild, west.
3. I’m not as impressed by Gordon’s 408 rushing performance against the Black Skirts as I am with Western Illinois holding him to 38 yards on 17 carriers back in September (the only time he’s been held under 120 yards rushing all year). Maybe Pelini can get Leatherneck’s Defensive Coordinator Brian Ward to come on over to Lincoln. They need something there. This is Nebraska’s 7th loss by 17 or more points, as a ranked team, in the last four years. That’s not good. I don’t know what the answer is though. It’s hard to fire a guy that’s won 9+ games every year; unless they have someone lined up to replace him. And if they did, he probably would’ve been fired last year. Chin up Husker fans; it’s still not as bad as it was under Callahan. We’ll see what happens this weekend against Minnesota, though. If the team has quit on him, it may be time for a change.
4. Georgia just can’t get a break. They beat Missouri 34-0 but are probably going to watch the Tigers represent the SEC-East in the SEC Championship game. Again. Gurley’s finally back after his suspension for autograph issues (why he’s suspended and everyone else under investigation for this gets to keep playing, I’ll never know), and they destroy SEC-West’s Auburn only to lose Gurley to a torn ACL. That $10 million dollar insurance policy they got for Gurley for ~$50,000 will turn out to be a nice investment though…
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (10-0) – Will you fall behind for the fifth straight game? Probably. Will you still win? Yes.
#2. Oregon (9-1) – Colorado’s first PAC-12 win of the year is not coming this weekend in Eugene.
#3. Alabama (9-1) – Watch out for the Catamounts of Western Carolina! Okay, not really.
#4. Mississippi State (9-1) – What is it with top teams playing teams winless in their conference this week? Safe to say, Vandy isn’t pulling the upset.
#5. Baylor (9-1) – 1st in the nation in scoring, 1st in the Big 12, but it may not be enough.
#6. TCU (9-1) – Did you really almost lose to Kansas?
#7. Ohio State (9-1) – You’d beat Virginia Tech by three TDs if you played them now. The problem is you already lost to them by two TDs. At home. In VT’s highest scoring game of the year. Sorry, but that’s not #4 material.
#8. Ole Miss (8-2) – Win the Egg Bowl, and things get messy.
#9. Georgia (8-2) – The eventual SEC-East Champ lost to you 34-0. How does that feel?
#10. Kansas State (8-2) – I have you here because I can’t have a UCLA team that needed double O.T. to beat Colorado anywhere near the Top-10.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota – Back in the lead, though that rumbling you’re hearing is Melvin Gordon coming on strong.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Mississippi State
#2 Oregon v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State v. Alabama – Interestingly enough, I’ve now come full circle. This was my preseason prediction.
Week 13 Big Games:
Arizona @ Utah – The log jam in the PAC-12 will clear up a bit after this weekend, and starting with this game. UofSuck has lost games by having the kicker iced, won games by having the kicker iced, nearly lost to UT San Antonio, needed a Hail Mary to beat Cal, and yet somehow beat Oregon. For Utah, six of their seven PAC-12 games have been decided by six or less, and three of those went to O.T. Utah can throw a big wrench into the PAC-12 South with a win, and UofSuck hasn’t played well against physical teams, which Utah is. We know the game will be close, and we know we should like Utah at home. But these pesky UofSuckers just keep getting things done, so I’ll take them in the upset: Arizona 31 Utah 27
Minnesota @ Nebraska – Though I don’t think firing him is the right move, Pelini’s job is likely on the line in this one. It’s Minnesota that comes in with the inside track to the Big 10 title game (though they need a little help), and Nebraska is just playing for pride. The main angle on this one is that Nebraska is a much better team at home and Minnesota has struggled on the road (losing to TCU and Illinois). But, I don’t think Nebraska is going to blow them out. Keep in mind that Minnesota’s David Cobb has actually outrushed Nebraska’s Abdullah this year, and the Gophers have shown the ability to keep things close (their only loss of more than seven points was @ TCU). Let’s look for Nebraska to win, but closer than the odds makers think: Nebraska 27 Minnesota 24.
Week 13 Game of the Week:
USC @ UCLA – After owning the battle for L.A. for a decade prior to 2012, USC has lost two straight to their cross town rival. UCLA is back in the college football playoff Top-10, but their only chance now is to win out and play spoiler to Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship. UCLA seems to have hit their stride lately, winning four straight since their loss to Oregon (but let’s just ignore that double O.T. win over 2-8 Colorado). UCLA is more athletic and more talented, and Mora Jr. has USC’s number right now. UCLA 30 USC 20.
Until next time…
1. The difference between Auburn’s miracle run last year and Florida State’s run this year, is Auburn was actually coming from behind to beat good teams. Florida State fell behind an average-at-best team yet again, and rallied yet again. I believe that’s now seven comeback wins this year for the defending champs. Regardless of who they’re playing, that’s impressive that they’ve been able to battle back all of those times without slipping up. Even though I still have them as #1, they probably don’t deserve to be there, but assuming they win out, they do deserve a Top-4 ranking as they’re the only Power 5 team undefeated.
2. There’s still a bunch of “what if’s” out there regarding the Top-4, thanks to one half of the divisions in many of the conferences looking to play spoiler. What if Missouri beats Alabama in SEC Championship? What if Georgia Tech upsets FSU in the ACC? What if someone actually steps forward and wins the PAC-12 South? What a mess we have out west, with five teams still in contention in the PAC-12 South to see who gets steamrolled by Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship. ASU was sailing along until they went to Corvallis this weekend and got smoked by the Beavers. I wouldn’t mind seeing a UofSuck/Oregon rematch in the PAC-12 Championship, if for nothing else to see the Ducks beat the snot out of them like they should’ve the first time. UofSuck is still around because of some bizarre finishes. The latest being the “ice the kicker” actually backfiring this time, as their kicker missed the FG that was attempted after the timeout was called, only to make the game winner after the time out. The PAC-12 South is the wild, wild, west.
3. I’m not as impressed by Gordon’s 408 rushing performance against the Black Skirts as I am with Western Illinois holding him to 38 yards on 17 carriers back in September (the only time he’s been held under 120 yards rushing all year). Maybe Pelini can get Leatherneck’s Defensive Coordinator Brian Ward to come on over to Lincoln. They need something there. This is Nebraska’s 7th loss by 17 or more points, as a ranked team, in the last four years. That’s not good. I don’t know what the answer is though. It’s hard to fire a guy that’s won 9+ games every year; unless they have someone lined up to replace him. And if they did, he probably would’ve been fired last year. Chin up Husker fans; it’s still not as bad as it was under Callahan. We’ll see what happens this weekend against Minnesota, though. If the team has quit on him, it may be time for a change.
4. Georgia just can’t get a break. They beat Missouri 34-0 but are probably going to watch the Tigers represent the SEC-East in the SEC Championship game. Again. Gurley’s finally back after his suspension for autograph issues (why he’s suspended and everyone else under investigation for this gets to keep playing, I’ll never know), and they destroy SEC-West’s Auburn only to lose Gurley to a torn ACL. That $10 million dollar insurance policy they got for Gurley for ~$50,000 will turn out to be a nice investment though…
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (10-0) – Will you fall behind for the fifth straight game? Probably. Will you still win? Yes.
#2. Oregon (9-1) – Colorado’s first PAC-12 win of the year is not coming this weekend in Eugene.
#3. Alabama (9-1) – Watch out for the Catamounts of Western Carolina! Okay, not really.
#4. Mississippi State (9-1) – What is it with top teams playing teams winless in their conference this week? Safe to say, Vandy isn’t pulling the upset.
#5. Baylor (9-1) – 1st in the nation in scoring, 1st in the Big 12, but it may not be enough.
#6. TCU (9-1) – Did you really almost lose to Kansas?
#7. Ohio State (9-1) – You’d beat Virginia Tech by three TDs if you played them now. The problem is you already lost to them by two TDs. At home. In VT’s highest scoring game of the year. Sorry, but that’s not #4 material.
#8. Ole Miss (8-2) – Win the Egg Bowl, and things get messy.
#9. Georgia (8-2) – The eventual SEC-East Champ lost to you 34-0. How does that feel?
#10. Kansas State (8-2) – I have you here because I can’t have a UCLA team that needed double O.T. to beat Colorado anywhere near the Top-10.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota – Back in the lead, though that rumbling you’re hearing is Melvin Gordon coming on strong.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Mississippi State
#2 Oregon v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State v. Alabama – Interestingly enough, I’ve now come full circle. This was my preseason prediction.
Week 13 Big Games:
Arizona @ Utah – The log jam in the PAC-12 will clear up a bit after this weekend, and starting with this game. UofSuck has lost games by having the kicker iced, won games by having the kicker iced, nearly lost to UT San Antonio, needed a Hail Mary to beat Cal, and yet somehow beat Oregon. For Utah, six of their seven PAC-12 games have been decided by six or less, and three of those went to O.T. Utah can throw a big wrench into the PAC-12 South with a win, and UofSuck hasn’t played well against physical teams, which Utah is. We know the game will be close, and we know we should like Utah at home. But these pesky UofSuckers just keep getting things done, so I’ll take them in the upset: Arizona 31 Utah 27
Minnesota @ Nebraska – Though I don’t think firing him is the right move, Pelini’s job is likely on the line in this one. It’s Minnesota that comes in with the inside track to the Big 10 title game (though they need a little help), and Nebraska is just playing for pride. The main angle on this one is that Nebraska is a much better team at home and Minnesota has struggled on the road (losing to TCU and Illinois). But, I don’t think Nebraska is going to blow them out. Keep in mind that Minnesota’s David Cobb has actually outrushed Nebraska’s Abdullah this year, and the Gophers have shown the ability to keep things close (their only loss of more than seven points was @ TCU). Let’s look for Nebraska to win, but closer than the odds makers think: Nebraska 27 Minnesota 24.
Week 13 Game of the Week:
USC @ UCLA – After owning the battle for L.A. for a decade prior to 2012, USC has lost two straight to their cross town rival. UCLA is back in the college football playoff Top-10, but their only chance now is to win out and play spoiler to Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship. UCLA seems to have hit their stride lately, winning four straight since their loss to Oregon (but let’s just ignore that double O.T. win over 2-8 Colorado). UCLA is more athletic and more talented, and Mora Jr. has USC’s number right now. UCLA 30 USC 20.
Until next time…
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Week 11 Recap and Week 12 Preview
I can see it now; with TCU moving into #4 in the playoff poll, they really shouldn’t move down at all if they win out. Same with Oregon and FSU (though I find it funny that FSU is down to #3 now even though they keep winning). So, with Alabama playing Mississippi State this weekend, and Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl left to play, coupled with Baylor’s head-to-head win over TCU, there’s a scenario lining up where the Big 12 could get both TCU and Baylor in the playoff. Can you imagine that? A playoff with no SEC or Big 10? Of course, about six or seven things need to happen for that to come to fruition (especially with Baylor’s 130th out of 130 non-con schedule), so let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves; there’s still a month left until the final rankings come out. In the meantime, let’s check out the Top-8 from this weekend (because we really should have an eight team playoff).
1. Florida State won its 25th game in a row, but once again they found themselves down early to subpar competition. At some point, that’s going to catch up to them, right? Well, looking at their remaining schedule, it looks like the only time it may happen is in the playoff; unless Duke can pull the upset in the ACC Championship. Lots of people talk about SEC fatigue, but I think we’re starting to see FSU fatigue (especially with the continued off the field drama). The committee seems to be agreeing, dropping an undefeated defending champion with a Heisman Trophy winning QB in the midst of a 25 game winning streak to #3 in their polls. Good for them.
2. With a dominating performance against Michigan State, Ohio State has re-entered the playoff race. The loss to Virginia Tech seems so long ago, and looking ahead, it’s good news for the Buckeyes that Minnesota is the biggest test remaining on their schedule before the Big 10 Championship Game. But, even if they win out, they need some help. They need a Baylor and/or TCU loss, and some continued chaos in the SEC to have a chance. At this stage, it’s still safe to say that the conference left out of the playoff is going to be the Big 10.
3. Baylor blows out OU in Norman, has the win over TCU, and had the inside track to the Big 12 Championship, but it still may not be enough to overtake TCU in the polls. Which is interesting, since it would in essence mean the committee doesn’t value head-to-head AND conference championships as much as, uh, other stuff. Oh yeah, body of work; yeah, that’s the term. As if TCU’s non-conference schedule of Samford, SMU, and Minnesota is far superior to that of Baylor’s non-con of SMU, Northwestern St, and Buffalo. Still, there’s a couple scenario’s out there where both TCU and Baylor wind up in the Top-4 in the AP, and then the committee is going to find itself in a pickle, especially if the SEC Champion has two losses.
4. Alabama and LSU played another classic slugfest, and I was a little bit surprised to see Saban play for the FG to send the game into O.T. rather than taking a quick shot or two at the endzone. Maybe he’s a little gun shy after what happened @ Auburn last year, or what happened with Ole Miss @ LSU this year when they went for the win instead of kicking a FG and playing for O.T. Or maybe, despite being held in check most of the game by LSU, Kiffin told Saban that on a short field in O.T., Alabama could score. Sure enough, they pull out some trickery (fake tackle-eligible screen and go route to the TE) and get the winning score. Despite showing some seriously vulnerabilities this year, Alabama is still in a position to get to #4 – and they’re favorites against Mississippi State and will be against Auburn, too.
5. In their last 19 games, Duke is 16-3. In their last 19 basketball games, Duke is 14-5. Think about that for awhile
6. In probably their most complete performance of the year, TCU made Kansas State’s defense look average. The Horned Frogs rushed for three times the average given up all year by KSU, and had almost as many rushing TDs as Kansas State had given up all year. TCU rises to #4 in the polls, and Kansas State falls to 0-10 all time in Top-10 matchups.
7. My favorite quote of the week was from the Auburn-A&M game when TV replay showed that Auburn has recovered one of their fumbles, even though A&M came out of the stack with the ball. “A lot of stuff happens at the bottom of a pile. I'm not going to say exactly who had possession of it, but when it is all said and done I ended up with the ball and we had possession, so yes I did get the fumble.” Despite outplaying A&M in nearly every aspect of the game, the three turnovers (especially the two late fumbles) just killed Auburn.
8. Speaking of fumbles, Everett Golson fumbled three more times while I was writing this blog.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (9-0) – Can you just lose one of these games, dammit?
#2. Mississippi State (9-0) – Still have Alabama, Ole Miss, and possibly an SEC Championship. Obviously win out and you’re in. One loss may still get you there.
#3. Oregon (9-1) – No one’s talking about the Civil War; that usually spells trouble in cross-state games.
#4. Alabama (8-1) – Still not sure what to think about you; but we’ll know much more at this time next week.
#5. Baylor (8-1) – If it comes down to Baylor or TCU for #4, I have to give the nod to head-to-head results and conference champions. If Baylor wins out, they’ll have both.
#6. TCU (8-1) – Needs some help from Okie State, Texas Tech, or Kansas State; but first needs to take care of Kansas, Texas, and Iowa State.
#7. Arizona State (8-1) – Just please beat UofSuck. Please.
#8. Ohio State (8-1) – Oh hi there! Where have you been all year? Welcome to the party.
#9. Auburn (7-2) – Fumbled away your chances, literally. But still not out of it.
#10. Ole Miss (8-2) – Beat Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl, and pray for help. Two losses by a total of seven points.
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Everyone’s voting for Mariota now; but I’m still pulling for Dak.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Alabama
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Though, Oregon is coming on strong; and losses may be looming for both FSU and Mississippi State.
Week 12 Big Games:
Auburn @ Georgia – Gurley is back for Georgia, and Auburn is reeling after fumbling away their hopes against A&M last weekend. Georgia still has hopes of playing in the SEC Championship game, while Auburn is left to be spoiler. Coupled with the game being in Athens give the Bulldogs the edge on the Tigers. A steady dose of Gurley and Chubb will keep Auburn’s offense off the field, and put up enough points for Georgia to stay in contention. Georgia 41 Auburn 34.
Nebraska @ Wisconsin – In the default play-in game for the Big 10 West Division championship (though Minnesota will disagree), Nebraska and Wisconsin both teams bring in massive offense lines and a power running game. But, this one is away from Memorial Stadium, and Nebraska hasn’t done well at all away from home against ranked teams, especially Wisconsin – losing 48-17 and 70-31 the last two times the Huskers have played Wisconsin away from home. I don’t think Wisconsin will run away with this one, but I also don’t think Nebraska pulls the upset, especially with Adbullah still not at 100%. Let’s take Wisconsin 34 to 27.
Week 12 Game of the Week:
Mississippi State @ Alabama – Both Alabama and Mississippi State played Arkansas and LSU very close. But, Alabama blew out A&M 59-0 while Mississippi State was in a dog fight with the Aggies the whole way. That’s why Alabama is a nearly double digit favorite against the #1 team in the country. But, let’s not forget what happened last week – Alabama was in a slug fest with their ol’ rival LSU, and needed O.T. to escape with an emotional victory at Death Valley. That spells trouble for Alabama, especially in the first half. Alabama will come out flat; all teams do after huge emotional games like that; and Mississippi State has to take advantage of that, and then hold off the Crimson Tide when they wake up and get their act together. I’d like Mississippi State to keep their magical season alive, but I’d also like to see some chaos continue in the SEC. Let’s take Alabama in a squeaker: 34 to 31.
Until next time…
1. Florida State won its 25th game in a row, but once again they found themselves down early to subpar competition. At some point, that’s going to catch up to them, right? Well, looking at their remaining schedule, it looks like the only time it may happen is in the playoff; unless Duke can pull the upset in the ACC Championship. Lots of people talk about SEC fatigue, but I think we’re starting to see FSU fatigue (especially with the continued off the field drama). The committee seems to be agreeing, dropping an undefeated defending champion with a Heisman Trophy winning QB in the midst of a 25 game winning streak to #3 in their polls. Good for them.
2. With a dominating performance against Michigan State, Ohio State has re-entered the playoff race. The loss to Virginia Tech seems so long ago, and looking ahead, it’s good news for the Buckeyes that Minnesota is the biggest test remaining on their schedule before the Big 10 Championship Game. But, even if they win out, they need some help. They need a Baylor and/or TCU loss, and some continued chaos in the SEC to have a chance. At this stage, it’s still safe to say that the conference left out of the playoff is going to be the Big 10.
3. Baylor blows out OU in Norman, has the win over TCU, and had the inside track to the Big 12 Championship, but it still may not be enough to overtake TCU in the polls. Which is interesting, since it would in essence mean the committee doesn’t value head-to-head AND conference championships as much as, uh, other stuff. Oh yeah, body of work; yeah, that’s the term. As if TCU’s non-conference schedule of Samford, SMU, and Minnesota is far superior to that of Baylor’s non-con of SMU, Northwestern St, and Buffalo. Still, there’s a couple scenario’s out there where both TCU and Baylor wind up in the Top-4 in the AP, and then the committee is going to find itself in a pickle, especially if the SEC Champion has two losses.
4. Alabama and LSU played another classic slugfest, and I was a little bit surprised to see Saban play for the FG to send the game into O.T. rather than taking a quick shot or two at the endzone. Maybe he’s a little gun shy after what happened @ Auburn last year, or what happened with Ole Miss @ LSU this year when they went for the win instead of kicking a FG and playing for O.T. Or maybe, despite being held in check most of the game by LSU, Kiffin told Saban that on a short field in O.T., Alabama could score. Sure enough, they pull out some trickery (fake tackle-eligible screen and go route to the TE) and get the winning score. Despite showing some seriously vulnerabilities this year, Alabama is still in a position to get to #4 – and they’re favorites against Mississippi State and will be against Auburn, too.
5. In their last 19 games, Duke is 16-3. In their last 19 basketball games, Duke is 14-5. Think about that for awhile
6. In probably their most complete performance of the year, TCU made Kansas State’s defense look average. The Horned Frogs rushed for three times the average given up all year by KSU, and had almost as many rushing TDs as Kansas State had given up all year. TCU rises to #4 in the polls, and Kansas State falls to 0-10 all time in Top-10 matchups.
7. My favorite quote of the week was from the Auburn-A&M game when TV replay showed that Auburn has recovered one of their fumbles, even though A&M came out of the stack with the ball. “A lot of stuff happens at the bottom of a pile. I'm not going to say exactly who had possession of it, but when it is all said and done I ended up with the ball and we had possession, so yes I did get the fumble.” Despite outplaying A&M in nearly every aspect of the game, the three turnovers (especially the two late fumbles) just killed Auburn.
8. Speaking of fumbles, Everett Golson fumbled three more times while I was writing this blog.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (9-0) – Can you just lose one of these games, dammit?
#2. Mississippi State (9-0) – Still have Alabama, Ole Miss, and possibly an SEC Championship. Obviously win out and you’re in. One loss may still get you there.
#3. Oregon (9-1) – No one’s talking about the Civil War; that usually spells trouble in cross-state games.
#4. Alabama (8-1) – Still not sure what to think about you; but we’ll know much more at this time next week.
#5. Baylor (8-1) – If it comes down to Baylor or TCU for #4, I have to give the nod to head-to-head results and conference champions. If Baylor wins out, they’ll have both.
#6. TCU (8-1) – Needs some help from Okie State, Texas Tech, or Kansas State; but first needs to take care of Kansas, Texas, and Iowa State.
#7. Arizona State (8-1) – Just please beat UofSuck. Please.
#8. Ohio State (8-1) – Oh hi there! Where have you been all year? Welcome to the party.
#9. Auburn (7-2) – Fumbled away your chances, literally. But still not out of it.
#10. Ole Miss (8-2) – Beat Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl, and pray for help. Two losses by a total of seven points.
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Everyone’s voting for Mariota now; but I’m still pulling for Dak.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Alabama
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Though, Oregon is coming on strong; and losses may be looming for both FSU and Mississippi State.
Week 12 Big Games:
Auburn @ Georgia – Gurley is back for Georgia, and Auburn is reeling after fumbling away their hopes against A&M last weekend. Georgia still has hopes of playing in the SEC Championship game, while Auburn is left to be spoiler. Coupled with the game being in Athens give the Bulldogs the edge on the Tigers. A steady dose of Gurley and Chubb will keep Auburn’s offense off the field, and put up enough points for Georgia to stay in contention. Georgia 41 Auburn 34.
Nebraska @ Wisconsin – In the default play-in game for the Big 10 West Division championship (though Minnesota will disagree), Nebraska and Wisconsin both teams bring in massive offense lines and a power running game. But, this one is away from Memorial Stadium, and Nebraska hasn’t done well at all away from home against ranked teams, especially Wisconsin – losing 48-17 and 70-31 the last two times the Huskers have played Wisconsin away from home. I don’t think Wisconsin will run away with this one, but I also don’t think Nebraska pulls the upset, especially with Adbullah still not at 100%. Let’s take Wisconsin 34 to 27.
Week 12 Game of the Week:
Mississippi State @ Alabama – Both Alabama and Mississippi State played Arkansas and LSU very close. But, Alabama blew out A&M 59-0 while Mississippi State was in a dog fight with the Aggies the whole way. That’s why Alabama is a nearly double digit favorite against the #1 team in the country. But, let’s not forget what happened last week – Alabama was in a slug fest with their ol’ rival LSU, and needed O.T. to escape with an emotional victory at Death Valley. That spells trouble for Alabama, especially in the first half. Alabama will come out flat; all teams do after huge emotional games like that; and Mississippi State has to take advantage of that, and then hold off the Crimson Tide when they wake up and get their act together. I’d like Mississippi State to keep their magical season alive, but I’d also like to see some chaos continue in the SEC. Let’s take Alabama in a squeaker: 34 to 31.
Until next time…
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
Week 10 Recap and Week 11 Preview
Disclaimer: I watched no football this weekend; I was out in the woods chasing deer around (errrr……drinking beer by a campfire), and cell service was spotty at best, so I wasn’t even able to keep up on my app. Yes, I missed Notre Dame almost losing to Navy. So, rather than the usual weekend recap, let’s just talk quickly about where things stand after week 10.
The latest scenario in the SEC (and certainly helped out by what’s going on in the other conferences) has an outside chance that the SEC may not have one team in the playoffs, let alone two, three or four. Let’s just say we wind up with an unbeaten FSU, and one loss champs in the PAC-12 (Oregon), Big 10 (Michigan State), and Big 12 (Baylor, TCU, or Kansas State). And, let’s just say we wind up with a five way tie for first in the SEC-West with everyone (except A&M and Arkansas, of course) at 6-2 in conference play (which is very plausible, by the way). And we know that the SEC-East Champion is going to have at least two losses (thanks to Georgia blowing it against Florida). Let’s say a two-to-three loss SEC-East Champ beats a two loss SEC-West team in the SEC Championship. Do you really send them to the Playoff? Conversely, do you send a two loss team from the SEC-West to the playoff that didn’t win their division? I don’t think so. So, there’s a not-too-far-fetched scenario where the playoff teams are FSU, Oregon, TCU, and Michigan State. That would officially end #SECbias forever. But, of course, that’s not how it’s all going to play out. And it will begin to really sort itself out this weekend: at least in the PAC-12 (Oregon @ Utah), Big 10 (Ohio State @ Michigan State), Big 12 (Kansas State @ TCU), and Notre Dame (@ ASU). The loser of these five games is officially out of the playoff. And, Alabama @ LSU has the potential to really start throwing a wrench in things should LSU pull the minor upset. At home. In Death Valley. At night.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (8-0) – They just refuse to lose.
#2. Mississippi State (8-0) – Nothing says Week 11 SEC schedule like the Skyhawks from UT Martin coming to town! Wait, what?
#3. Auburn (7-1) – The LSU and Kansas State wins are continuing to be more and more impressive.
#4. Alabama (7-1) – LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn three of the next four weeks? I feel sorry for Western Carolina on 11/22 if things don’t go well the next two weeks.
#5. Oregon (8-1) – Don’t forget about Utah, a team that is playing more like Stanford than the real Stanford.
#6. TCU (7-1) – Found a way to escape Morgantown and that’s all that matters. Find a way to beat Kansas State this weekend, and the Big 12 should be yours, and quite possibly a #4 when it’s all said and done. But you still need Baylor to lose somewhere along the way.
#7. Michigan State (7-1) – Ironically, your signature win is your loss to Oregon.
#8. Notre Dame (7-1) – Sure, your only loss is to FSU, but you almost lost to North Carolina, Navy, and Stanford; and struggled at times with Syracuse and the Purdue.
#9. Baylor (7-1) – I’d like Kansas State here (as their only loss is to Auburn), but I can’t ignore that they have @ TCU, @ WVU, and @ Baylor left, while you have @ Oklahoma and v. Kansas State left. Advantage Baylor.
#10. Arizona State (7-1) – Catching Notre Dame at the right time (after Navy and with a bunch of injuries).
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – If they remain undefeated through the close of voting, Dak is still the winner. But, Mariota’s coming on strong.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Alabama
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Though, I’d rather see Alabama v. Oregon.
Week 11 Big Games:
Oregon @ Utah – Let down game for Oregon after finally beating Stanford? Maybe. Especially since Utah is playing more like Stanford this year than Stanford is. Yet another Utah PAC-12 game decided by six or less in their O.T. loss to Arizona State. The problem though is that Utah doesn’t have the offense to keep up with Oregon. It’ll stay close for a bit, maybe into the second half; but look for Oregon to pull away late: Oregon 45 Utah 24.
Alabama @ LSU – Since losing to LSU in Tuscaloosa in the most exciting 9-6 game ever, Alabama has beaten LSU three straight, including two by 21 or more, and one of those for a National Championship. No secret what LSU will try to do on offense: run between the tackles. If Alabama can stop those and put LSU in obvious passing downs, it could be a long night for the Tigers. Conversely, which defense line will show up for LSU? The one that was trashed for 600+ yards rushing by Mississippi State and Auburn, or the one that has given up less than 100 yards a game during their three game SEC winning streak? Kiffin and Saban have the weapons to be a little more creative on offense, but that also brings turnovers into play, especially in a raucous atmosphere like Death Valley. Special teams, turnover margins, and the kicking game will decide this one. I’m leaning towards LSU, but whenever you start to count out Alabama is when they respond best. Alabama 27 LSU 17.
Ohio State @ Michigan State – Here we are in Week 11 and Ohio State is playing its first game this year against a ranked team? Wow. And if they win, they’re all of the sudden in playoff contention. But, they won’t. Michigan State is too strong on both lines, and Ohio State has struggled with average teams such as Navy, Penn State, and even Cincinnati. Michigan State keeps its hopes alive: MSU 41 Ohio State 34.
Notre Dame @ Arizona State – After Notre Dame lost to Navy in 2007 after 43 straight victories against them, an alarming trend has emerged: counting that year, Notre Dame is 5-3 against Navy, but in their games immediately following the Navy game they are 2-5 with their only victories against teams that finished with losing records that year. And, just this year other college teams are 2-6 the week after they play Navy. Notre Dame is beat up on defense and living dangerously on offense. Arizona State is playing well on both sides of the ball, and it’s going to be warm in Tempe (especially for November). Look for ASU to beat the Irish in a low scoring, turnover filled game: ASU 27 Notre Dame 24
Baylor @ Oklahoma – Baylor has never won in Norman. There’s a first time for everything. Baylor 52 Oklahoma 38.
Week 11 Game of the Week:
Kansas State @ TCU – TCU barely survived that trap game in Morgantown, and now they get Kansas State at home with a chance to stay in contention in the Big 12 and the Playoff. Kansas State could’ve beaten Auburn, but that also could’ve easily lost to Iowa State and Oklahoma. And looking at Oklahoma, the margins of victory by KSU and TCU against Oklahoma are pretty similar (one and four points). If this was in Manhattan, I’d give the nod to Kansas State, but I think that TCU will be a bit looser being back at home, and they’re still playing with a chip on their shoulder after blowing that 21 point lead with 11 minutes left against Baylor. TCU 34 Kansas State 28
Until next time…
The latest scenario in the SEC (and certainly helped out by what’s going on in the other conferences) has an outside chance that the SEC may not have one team in the playoffs, let alone two, three or four. Let’s just say we wind up with an unbeaten FSU, and one loss champs in the PAC-12 (Oregon), Big 10 (Michigan State), and Big 12 (Baylor, TCU, or Kansas State). And, let’s just say we wind up with a five way tie for first in the SEC-West with everyone (except A&M and Arkansas, of course) at 6-2 in conference play (which is very plausible, by the way). And we know that the SEC-East Champion is going to have at least two losses (thanks to Georgia blowing it against Florida). Let’s say a two-to-three loss SEC-East Champ beats a two loss SEC-West team in the SEC Championship. Do you really send them to the Playoff? Conversely, do you send a two loss team from the SEC-West to the playoff that didn’t win their division? I don’t think so. So, there’s a not-too-far-fetched scenario where the playoff teams are FSU, Oregon, TCU, and Michigan State. That would officially end #SECbias forever. But, of course, that’s not how it’s all going to play out. And it will begin to really sort itself out this weekend: at least in the PAC-12 (Oregon @ Utah), Big 10 (Ohio State @ Michigan State), Big 12 (Kansas State @ TCU), and Notre Dame (@ ASU). The loser of these five games is officially out of the playoff. And, Alabama @ LSU has the potential to really start throwing a wrench in things should LSU pull the minor upset. At home. In Death Valley. At night.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (8-0) – They just refuse to lose.
#2. Mississippi State (8-0) – Nothing says Week 11 SEC schedule like the Skyhawks from UT Martin coming to town! Wait, what?
#3. Auburn (7-1) – The LSU and Kansas State wins are continuing to be more and more impressive.
#4. Alabama (7-1) – LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn three of the next four weeks? I feel sorry for Western Carolina on 11/22 if things don’t go well the next two weeks.
#5. Oregon (8-1) – Don’t forget about Utah, a team that is playing more like Stanford than the real Stanford.
#6. TCU (7-1) – Found a way to escape Morgantown and that’s all that matters. Find a way to beat Kansas State this weekend, and the Big 12 should be yours, and quite possibly a #4 when it’s all said and done. But you still need Baylor to lose somewhere along the way.
#7. Michigan State (7-1) – Ironically, your signature win is your loss to Oregon.
#8. Notre Dame (7-1) – Sure, your only loss is to FSU, but you almost lost to North Carolina, Navy, and Stanford; and struggled at times with Syracuse and the Purdue.
#9. Baylor (7-1) – I’d like Kansas State here (as their only loss is to Auburn), but I can’t ignore that they have @ TCU, @ WVU, and @ Baylor left, while you have @ Oklahoma and v. Kansas State left. Advantage Baylor.
#10. Arizona State (7-1) – Catching Notre Dame at the right time (after Navy and with a bunch of injuries).
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – If they remain undefeated through the close of voting, Dak is still the winner. But, Mariota’s coming on strong.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Alabama
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Though, I’d rather see Alabama v. Oregon.
Week 11 Big Games:
Oregon @ Utah – Let down game for Oregon after finally beating Stanford? Maybe. Especially since Utah is playing more like Stanford this year than Stanford is. Yet another Utah PAC-12 game decided by six or less in their O.T. loss to Arizona State. The problem though is that Utah doesn’t have the offense to keep up with Oregon. It’ll stay close for a bit, maybe into the second half; but look for Oregon to pull away late: Oregon 45 Utah 24.
Alabama @ LSU – Since losing to LSU in Tuscaloosa in the most exciting 9-6 game ever, Alabama has beaten LSU three straight, including two by 21 or more, and one of those for a National Championship. No secret what LSU will try to do on offense: run between the tackles. If Alabama can stop those and put LSU in obvious passing downs, it could be a long night for the Tigers. Conversely, which defense line will show up for LSU? The one that was trashed for 600+ yards rushing by Mississippi State and Auburn, or the one that has given up less than 100 yards a game during their three game SEC winning streak? Kiffin and Saban have the weapons to be a little more creative on offense, but that also brings turnovers into play, especially in a raucous atmosphere like Death Valley. Special teams, turnover margins, and the kicking game will decide this one. I’m leaning towards LSU, but whenever you start to count out Alabama is when they respond best. Alabama 27 LSU 17.
Ohio State @ Michigan State – Here we are in Week 11 and Ohio State is playing its first game this year against a ranked team? Wow. And if they win, they’re all of the sudden in playoff contention. But, they won’t. Michigan State is too strong on both lines, and Ohio State has struggled with average teams such as Navy, Penn State, and even Cincinnati. Michigan State keeps its hopes alive: MSU 41 Ohio State 34.
Notre Dame @ Arizona State – After Notre Dame lost to Navy in 2007 after 43 straight victories against them, an alarming trend has emerged: counting that year, Notre Dame is 5-3 against Navy, but in their games immediately following the Navy game they are 2-5 with their only victories against teams that finished with losing records that year. And, just this year other college teams are 2-6 the week after they play Navy. Notre Dame is beat up on defense and living dangerously on offense. Arizona State is playing well on both sides of the ball, and it’s going to be warm in Tempe (especially for November). Look for ASU to beat the Irish in a low scoring, turnover filled game: ASU 27 Notre Dame 24
Baylor @ Oklahoma – Baylor has never won in Norman. There’s a first time for everything. Baylor 52 Oklahoma 38.
Week 11 Game of the Week:
Kansas State @ TCU – TCU barely survived that trap game in Morgantown, and now they get Kansas State at home with a chance to stay in contention in the Big 12 and the Playoff. Kansas State could’ve beaten Auburn, but that also could’ve easily lost to Iowa State and Oklahoma. And looking at Oklahoma, the margins of victory by KSU and TCU against Oklahoma are pretty similar (one and four points). If this was in Manhattan, I’d give the nod to Kansas State, but I think that TCU will be a bit looser being back at home, and they’re still playing with a chip on their shoulder after blowing that 21 point lead with 11 minutes left against Baylor. TCU 34 Kansas State 28
Until next time…
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Week 9 Recap and Week 10 Preview
Ever since Notre Dame beat Florida State in 1993 (and then lost a let-down game the following weekend against Boston College by a FG) yet lost the National Championship vote to FSU, I’ve always ranted about the value of head-to-head results over anything else (given even records). Seems I have myself in a pickle now. By head-to-head results only, Auburn should be #3 and Notre Dame should be #4 (given their sole losses to the #1 and #2 teams in the country). But, they’re not. And sure, I think it’s still appropriate to have Oregon over Michigan State. But, now it gets hairy – UofSuck is sitting on one loss (and should’ve been a win with a near chip shot FG against USC that they made before the ‘SC timeout), but who in their right mind would rank them above Oregon? Not I, not anyone. Okay, let’s complicate things a bit more. Baylor beat TCU, but everyone (including me) has TCU higher than Baylor. Alabama lost to Ole Miss just a couple weeks ago, and with Ole Miss’ loss to LSU this weekend, the AP has them four spots behind Alabama. And then there’s Georgia, who’s frantically climbing up the polls, with their lone loss to a four-loss South Carolina team. Yep, I’m beginning to think head-to-head is meaningless; well not meaningless, but certainly less of a factor than 1) how teams lost (which is why both ASU and Ohio State are going to have hard time climbing much higher in the polls), 2) and when teams lost. Throw strength of schedule in there as well (which starts to favor Auburn and Oregon for their non-con wins against Kansas State and Michigan State), and we have the first Top-25 rankings from the playoff committee. More on that later as we get into this weekend’s Top-10 recap; well, make it Top-5 (I’m packing up for a deer hunt as we speak so I need to keep this short):
1) My take home from the LSU/Ole Miss game is threefold: the kicking game plays such a huge roll in college football (Ole Miss couldn’t decide if they wanted to try a FG to tie the game, go for more yards, go for the endzone, take a delay of game, call a timeout, or just let Bo be Bad Bo); never count out LSU at home, especially when they’re down in the 4th quarter (looking at you Alabama); and while the SEC-West is still leading the polls, but they’re going to continue to knock each other off at an alarming rate (not to mention that the SEC-East can help a bit with Georgia-Auburn in a few weeks).
2) Oregon’s offense is back firing on all cylinders, but their defense needs to pick it up some. The Ducks have below-standard Stanford team this weekend, and if they can finally get that Cardinal off their back, they have a very good chance at taking care of Utah in a couple weeks and then just letting the PAC-12 South beat each other up to decide who gets to get beat up by Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship.
3) Mississippi State won in their first game as a #1 ranked team, but they were taken to the wire by a pretty good Kentucky team. It’s another reminder that while many accuse there of being an SEC bias, the reality is the SEC is once again, top to bottom, better than any conference in the country. (Well, if you take out Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida)
4) Wouldn’t it be something if Kansas State wins @ TCU, @ West Virginia, and @ Baylor; with their lone loss being what should’ve been a win against Auburn (a team with as good a shot as any to win the SEC)? If that happens, Kansas State is in. And if the queen had balls, she’d be king.
5) While I find the intrigue behind this week’s first reveal of the committee’s Top-4, I also know that in the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t really matter. There’s too much football to play, and too many upsets yet to happen. But, my initial thoughts: I was surprised (yet agree) with Notre Dame at #10 (they haven’t beaten anyone). I was really surprised at Ole Miss at #3, given how poor their offense looks at time and that fact that they play Auburn this weekend, meaning at least one of the initial Top-4 is going down this weekend (queue the conspiracies about that’s how they want it to happen). Other than that, no major surprises for me. But again, it’s all going to sort itself out in the next month and with the way things are lining up, I think the Top-4 is going to be a lot clearer on December 7th than it is on October 28th. I still think the SEC gets two teams in though, with Oregon and Florida State rounding out the mix.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (7-0) – The last time you played Louisville, it was on the road, on Thursday night, you were #4, they were unranked, and you lost. Just sayin’.
#2. Mississippi State (7-0) – A win is a win is a win. Next up, Arkansas and UT Martin before you go to Tuscaloosa on November 15th. Get healthy, Dak.
#3. Auburn (6-1) – @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, @ Alabama remaining. Huge strength of schedule points if you can run the table.
#4. Alabama (7-1) – Bye week before you head to Death Valley.
#5. Oregon (7-1) – Your ole foe, the Cardinal, come to town this weekend; and they’re vulnerable for a change.
#6. Ole Miss (7-1) – You lose @ Death Valley (where no one wins at night) and everyone has forgotten about you? Maybe because you have no time to recover as Auburn comes to town this weekend.
#7. Michigan State (7-1) – Bye week for you too; then Ohio State comes to town for your last big matchup before the Big 10 Championship.
#8. Notre Dame (6-1) – Just please, God; beat Navy.
#9. Georgia (6-1) – Still can’t believe that the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party hasn’t been played by undefeated teams.
#10. TCU (6-1) – Careful @ Morgantown; remember WestByGod’s only two losses are to Alabama (by 10) and Oklahoma (by 12). WVU should probably be a bit higher in the rankings.
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – But how bad is his foot injury?
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Alabama
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Until FSU loses to Louisville this weekend.
Week 10 Big Games:
Florida State @ Louisville – What do Louisville, Alabama, and Ole Miss have in common? They’re the only teams in college football to have not given up more than 23 points in a game this year. The Cardinals’ are going to have to give up that or fewer if they’re going to have a chance, as their offense isn’t going to be able to play in a shootout with Florida State. But, Florida State is having more off the field problems (I mean, wonderful outstanding citizens in the classroom and off the field; as Jimbo puts it). And this is Thursday night, where ranked favorites on the road go to die. Why not; it’s the hipster pick, but I’ll pick it too; Louisville shakes things up: 31 to 27.
Stanford @ Oregon – Oregon’s National Title march was derailed each of the last two years by Stanford, but the difference in this one is this: each of the last three years, Stanford wound up in a BCS game. Not so this year. Stanford is still physical on both sides of the ball, but Oregon is getting healthy at the right time. Oregon finally gets by the Cardinal, and solidifies their claim to a top-4 spot in the polls: Oregon 37 Stanford 24.
TCU @ West Virginia – We know TCU isn’t going to put up 80 in Morgantown, and we know that WVU’s two losses were to two quality teams: Alabama and Oklahoma. What we don’t know is if TCU’s defense is going to show back up after giving up 33 to Oklahoma, 61 to Baylor, and 27 to Texas Tech. But, West Virginia only beat Texas Tech by three, and TCU beat them by 55. Let the Horned Frogs keep rolling: TCU 44 West Virginia 31.
UofSuck @ UCLA – UofSuck is one FG away from being undefeated; or at least that’s what the pundits will tell you. They must have forgotten that they needed a 36 point 4th quarter against Cal to win, and almost lost to Nevada and the Fighting Roadrunners at UTSA. UCLA has underachieved all season, and look for that to continue. Whatever you do, take the over. I like UofSuck 48 UCLA 45.
Utah @ Arizona State – After giving up 62 to UCLA and 34 to USC, ASU suddenly learned how to play defense – only giving up 10/each in wins against Stanford and Washington. Utah has gone Stanford on us; not only are they big and physical, but they can’t play a game that’s decided by more than seven points – they’re four PAC-12 games have been decided by a total of 12 points. You east coasters will have to read about this one since it doesn’t kick-off until 11:00pm Eastern time. Too bad. You’re missing out on an Arizona State team starting to peak at the right time: ASU 30 to 24.
Week 10 Game of the Week:
Auburn @ Ole Miss – Ole Miss needs to dust itself off quick. After the upset to LSU, Auburn brings a much better offense into this one; though Ole Miss still has the #1 scoring defense in the country. Here’s the scary thing – Auburn won the turnover battle against LSU 4-1, gave up 10 points, and lost. Why? LSU lined up and hammered it time and time again inside the tackles. You’ll see the same thing here, but instead of the play action pass being freed up by the inside running game, the outside options are going to allow Auburn to run wild. Ole Miss goes down two weeks in a row: Auburn 27 Ole Miss 20.
Until next time…
1) My take home from the LSU/Ole Miss game is threefold: the kicking game plays such a huge roll in college football (Ole Miss couldn’t decide if they wanted to try a FG to tie the game, go for more yards, go for the endzone, take a delay of game, call a timeout, or just let Bo be Bad Bo); never count out LSU at home, especially when they’re down in the 4th quarter (looking at you Alabama); and while the SEC-West is still leading the polls, but they’re going to continue to knock each other off at an alarming rate (not to mention that the SEC-East can help a bit with Georgia-Auburn in a few weeks).
2) Oregon’s offense is back firing on all cylinders, but their defense needs to pick it up some. The Ducks have below-standard Stanford team this weekend, and if they can finally get that Cardinal off their back, they have a very good chance at taking care of Utah in a couple weeks and then just letting the PAC-12 South beat each other up to decide who gets to get beat up by Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship.
3) Mississippi State won in their first game as a #1 ranked team, but they were taken to the wire by a pretty good Kentucky team. It’s another reminder that while many accuse there of being an SEC bias, the reality is the SEC is once again, top to bottom, better than any conference in the country. (Well, if you take out Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida)
4) Wouldn’t it be something if Kansas State wins @ TCU, @ West Virginia, and @ Baylor; with their lone loss being what should’ve been a win against Auburn (a team with as good a shot as any to win the SEC)? If that happens, Kansas State is in. And if the queen had balls, she’d be king.
5) While I find the intrigue behind this week’s first reveal of the committee’s Top-4, I also know that in the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t really matter. There’s too much football to play, and too many upsets yet to happen. But, my initial thoughts: I was surprised (yet agree) with Notre Dame at #10 (they haven’t beaten anyone). I was really surprised at Ole Miss at #3, given how poor their offense looks at time and that fact that they play Auburn this weekend, meaning at least one of the initial Top-4 is going down this weekend (queue the conspiracies about that’s how they want it to happen). Other than that, no major surprises for me. But again, it’s all going to sort itself out in the next month and with the way things are lining up, I think the Top-4 is going to be a lot clearer on December 7th than it is on October 28th. I still think the SEC gets two teams in though, with Oregon and Florida State rounding out the mix.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (7-0) – The last time you played Louisville, it was on the road, on Thursday night, you were #4, they were unranked, and you lost. Just sayin’.
#2. Mississippi State (7-0) – A win is a win is a win. Next up, Arkansas and UT Martin before you go to Tuscaloosa on November 15th. Get healthy, Dak.
#3. Auburn (6-1) – @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, @ Alabama remaining. Huge strength of schedule points if you can run the table.
#4. Alabama (7-1) – Bye week before you head to Death Valley.
#5. Oregon (7-1) – Your ole foe, the Cardinal, come to town this weekend; and they’re vulnerable for a change.
#6. Ole Miss (7-1) – You lose @ Death Valley (where no one wins at night) and everyone has forgotten about you? Maybe because you have no time to recover as Auburn comes to town this weekend.
#7. Michigan State (7-1) – Bye week for you too; then Ohio State comes to town for your last big matchup before the Big 10 Championship.
#8. Notre Dame (6-1) – Just please, God; beat Navy.
#9. Georgia (6-1) – Still can’t believe that the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party hasn’t been played by undefeated teams.
#10. TCU (6-1) – Careful @ Morgantown; remember WestByGod’s only two losses are to Alabama (by 10) and Oklahoma (by 12). WVU should probably be a bit higher in the rankings.
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – But how bad is his foot injury?
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Alabama
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Until FSU loses to Louisville this weekend.
Week 10 Big Games:
Florida State @ Louisville – What do Louisville, Alabama, and Ole Miss have in common? They’re the only teams in college football to have not given up more than 23 points in a game this year. The Cardinals’ are going to have to give up that or fewer if they’re going to have a chance, as their offense isn’t going to be able to play in a shootout with Florida State. But, Florida State is having more off the field problems (I mean, wonderful outstanding citizens in the classroom and off the field; as Jimbo puts it). And this is Thursday night, where ranked favorites on the road go to die. Why not; it’s the hipster pick, but I’ll pick it too; Louisville shakes things up: 31 to 27.
Stanford @ Oregon – Oregon’s National Title march was derailed each of the last two years by Stanford, but the difference in this one is this: each of the last three years, Stanford wound up in a BCS game. Not so this year. Stanford is still physical on both sides of the ball, but Oregon is getting healthy at the right time. Oregon finally gets by the Cardinal, and solidifies their claim to a top-4 spot in the polls: Oregon 37 Stanford 24.
TCU @ West Virginia – We know TCU isn’t going to put up 80 in Morgantown, and we know that WVU’s two losses were to two quality teams: Alabama and Oklahoma. What we don’t know is if TCU’s defense is going to show back up after giving up 33 to Oklahoma, 61 to Baylor, and 27 to Texas Tech. But, West Virginia only beat Texas Tech by three, and TCU beat them by 55. Let the Horned Frogs keep rolling: TCU 44 West Virginia 31.
UofSuck @ UCLA – UofSuck is one FG away from being undefeated; or at least that’s what the pundits will tell you. They must have forgotten that they needed a 36 point 4th quarter against Cal to win, and almost lost to Nevada and the Fighting Roadrunners at UTSA. UCLA has underachieved all season, and look for that to continue. Whatever you do, take the over. I like UofSuck 48 UCLA 45.
Utah @ Arizona State – After giving up 62 to UCLA and 34 to USC, ASU suddenly learned how to play defense – only giving up 10/each in wins against Stanford and Washington. Utah has gone Stanford on us; not only are they big and physical, but they can’t play a game that’s decided by more than seven points – they’re four PAC-12 games have been decided by a total of 12 points. You east coasters will have to read about this one since it doesn’t kick-off until 11:00pm Eastern time. Too bad. You’re missing out on an Arizona State team starting to peak at the right time: ASU 30 to 24.
Week 10 Game of the Week:
Auburn @ Ole Miss – Ole Miss needs to dust itself off quick. After the upset to LSU, Auburn brings a much better offense into this one; though Ole Miss still has the #1 scoring defense in the country. Here’s the scary thing – Auburn won the turnover battle against LSU 4-1, gave up 10 points, and lost. Why? LSU lined up and hammered it time and time again inside the tackles. You’ll see the same thing here, but instead of the play action pass being freed up by the inside running game, the outside options are going to allow Auburn to run wild. Ole Miss goes down two weeks in a row: Auburn 27 Ole Miss 20.
Until next time…
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Week 8 Recap and Week 9 Preview
Two more unbeatens go down, and now the SEC has four teams in the Top-5; the first time that’s ever happened (one conference having four in the top five), and they’re all in the same division! My bet that the SEC will have two in the Final Four is looking better and better, and there are some scenarios where they could have three teams. Heck, I’ve even seen a fourth scenario where they wind up all four slots, but that is predicated by FSU losing twice, which isn’t going to happen. They are vulnerable though, as they were largely outplayed and outcoached in Tallahassee by a Notre Dame squad with half the talent. Here’s the Top 10 recap:
1) Let’s just get it over with right away: yes, it was a pick play. Notre Dame dared the ref’s to call it, and they did (even the head referee mouthed “are you sure?” when told of the foul). The two most unfortunate things about the play (other than the FSU player that tore his helmet off after the play and could’ve been flagged for that): 1) the Irish TD in the first half was an actual real pick and wasn’t called (and it should’ve been called) and 2) the final pick play wasn’t even necessary as Robinson was so wide open from blown coverage that the other two Irish receivers could’ve just stood on the line and not moved. As Kelly said: “they were rewarded for blown coverage.”
2) One last comment about FSU before we move on to the SEC and other conferences. I almost puked during Jimbo’s post game comments when he said that Florida State “is a high-character program that’s ran the right way, on class, on dignity, in the classroom, off the field, and this team shows it.” That reminded me of the All Valley Tournament scene in Karate Kid III when Terry Silver hypocritically talked about importance of giving back to the community through the self-confidence and inner peace instilled by Karate, and the virtues of honesty, compassion, and fair play. Sorry Jimbo, we ain’t buying it. I miss the days of Jimmy Johnson’s Miami teams where they didn’t pretend they weren’t criminals – they embraced it.
3) Of all the Top-15 teams, the one that I still don’t have a good read on is Kansas State. They’re just outside the Top-10 and are the only team remaining in the Big 12 that is undefeated in conference play. They got lucky to beat Oklahoma this weekend (ever seen one of the best kickers in the game hook a 19 yard FG wide left by 30 feet?), but also were in a great position to beat Auburn. Then again, they struggled @ Iowa State but looked great against Texas Tech. Even though they’re sitting in first in the Big 12 right now, they still have @ TCU, @ West Virginia, and @ Baylor. I don’t think they’re going to be sitting in first for long.
4) Everyone seems to have forgotten about the Big 10 after Ohio State’s loss to Virginia Tech and Michigan State’s loss to Oregon. But, those teams haven’t loss since, and they bring in the 3rd and 4th scoring offenses in the country. Sure, part of that is their competition, but don’t think that a one loss Big 10 Champion doesn’t have legitimate claim to be in the Top-4. Especially if it winds up being Michigan State which would have a win over Ohio State and two wins over Nebraska, with their sole loss to Oregon (who’s chances to win the PAC-12 and get in the playoff are getting better and better by the weekend). I can see it now – the Final Four winds up being two teams from the SEC-West and Michigan State and Oregon (assuming Florida State losses again somewhere along the way – oh wait, that’s right, they didn’t lose to Notre Dame. Grrr……right up there with the phantom clip against Colorado in the ’91 Orange Bowl or the Reggie Bush “I’ll just illegally push Matt Leinart into the endzone” in 2005). Oh wait, where was I? That’s right – imagine if the Final Four winds up being two rematches! So much for the “every week is a playoff” crowd…
5) Two reason’s you can tell it’s almost November: Alabama is back in the Top-5 in scoring defense, and Georgia is probably the best one loss team in the country. From the opening minutes, Alabama took it straight to Texas A&M and finally exposed the Aggie offense as a unit that lost their QB, best WR, and left tackle to the NFL. And, even without Gurley for the last two weeks, Georgia’s running game hasn’t missed a beat, and they’re not running away with the SEC-East. That cross-divisional game with Auburn in a few weeks seems to be the Bulldogs last major chance for a stumble before the SEC Championship Game. Speaking of Auburn – they have @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, and @ Alabama remaining. That quite possibly could be three more losses. Safe to the say, even though they have four in the Top-5 right now, the SEC-West isn’t done beating each other up.
6) West Virginia lost the turnover battle 0-3, but still beat Baylor. How? Well, Baylor’s 18 penalties sure didn’t help. But, with the score tied at 27 going into the 4th quarter, West Virginia’s defense really tightened down and kept Bryce Perry and crew in check. That’s something you haven’t heard much about in the Baylor-West Virginia matchups the last couple of years: defense. Great win in Morgantown for the Mountaineers, and if they keep winning, that’s going to help out Alabama with strength-of-schedule points.
7) Whenever people start to doubt Oregon, it seems Washington shows up on their schedule. After struggling against Washington State and losing to UofSuck, the Ducks took care of Oregon, and then blasted Washington like they always do – that’s not 11 straight years of 17+ point wins in the cross state matchup. With Stanford losing yet again, all of the sudden, November 8th @ Utah seems to be the Ducks last major hurdle before the PAC-12 Championship and a likely spot in the Top-4.
8) So who is Oregon going to face from the PAC-12 South? There’s a log jam happening right now, as four teams are sitting at one less, with USC holding the tie breaker over UofSuck, ASU holding the tie breaker over USC, and Utah having to play all three (plus Oregon and Stanford). It’s looking like the Territorial Cup may decide the PAC-12 South, assuming both ASU and UofSuck can hold serve until the last weekend in November. Regardless, for a team that gave up 62 to UCLA and was left for dead, I’ve been impressed with how ASU has responded by not quitting against USC in the Coliseum and by dominating a Stanford team on both sides of the ball. It should be noted that the PAC-12 South has four out of their five teams ranked in the Top 25. Take that, SEC West!
9) The old saying in college football is that it’s better to lose early than late. In the case of TCU, not only is it better to lose early than late, but also to not play anyone late. By the time LSU and Alabama tee it off late on November 8th, TCU will be done with their last real challenge against Kansas State. After that, they have Kansas, Texas, and Iowa State to close the season with no Conference Championship. If they find themselves in the top six or seven going into that game, they may just sneak into the Top-4 via attrition as here’s the other big games happening on November 8th or later: Ohio State @ Michigan State, Notre Dame @ Arizona State, Baylor @ Oklahoma, Mississippi State @ Alabama, Auburn @ Georgia, K State @ West Virginia, UCLA @ USC, Mississippi State @ Ole Miss, Auburn @ Alabama, Notre Dame @ USC, Kansas State @ Baylor, Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma, and the Big 10, PAC-12, SEC, and ACC Conference Championships. TCU’s got a great chance to not only win the Big 12 but to coast into the Top-4.
10) Regardless of what happens in the next seven or eight weeks, the committee is going to have their hands full – especially if they continue to state putting a high value on the result of head-to-head matchups. Michigan State is out because of the loss the Oregon. Same for Notre Dame at the hands of FSU. Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl losers? Out. No one wants to see those matchups again. So then you have to start looking at good losses versus bad losses. All those mentioned above are “good losses.” Oregon going to down to UofSuck, Georgia to South Carolina? Not so much. Yet, interestingly enough, Georgia and Oregon are playing some of the best football right now. The most interesting scenario is what happens if a one loss Georgia beats an undefeated Mississippi (or State) team in the SEC Championship. Georgia’s in for sure. But now you have a likely one loss team (or maybe two – winner of Iron Bowl may end with one loss) that didn’t make the conference championship and a one loss team that just lost the conference championship but beat their in-state rival the week before. Ah, my head hurts. Hopefully it’ll all be straightened out on the field in the next eight weeks, and given the history, it will. Even if there’s only one second left…
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (7-0) – After Louisville next week, their last “tough” game will be the ACC Championship against Duke or Pitt. But, I’m giving Louisville a chance – at home, on Thursday night…
#2. Mississippi State (6-0) – I don’t have you at #1 because you still have @ Alabama and @ Ole Miss (let alone the SEC Championship against Georgia – if you make it that far).
#3. Ole Miss (7-0) – @ LSU this weekend before Auburn comes to town next weekend. It’s a TRAP! Death Valley @ night. Good luck.
#4. Auburn (6-1) – @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, @ Alabama remaining, and don’t sleep against South Carolina this weekend.
#5. Alabama (6-1) – If you win @ Death Valley in three weeks, you lose v. Mississippi State the following weekend. If you lose @ LSU, you probably beat MSU. Regardless, another loss is coming, as Auburn’s still out there, too. Just not against Tennessee or Western Carolina.
#6. Oregon (6-1) – You might actually be able to beat Stanford this year is you can score 14+ points, as Stanford can’t seem to score more than 10-14 points against good teams.
#7. Michigan State (6-1) – Needs to run the table and needs SEC and PAC-12 losses to pile up.
#8. Notre Dame (6-1) – Ok, fine; you’re a top-10 team. Now just don’t blow it against Navy in a couple weeks.
#9. Georgia (6-1) – Just might be the best team in the whole SEC right now, and that’s saying a lot.
#10. TCU (6-1) – Up 21 @ Baylor with 11 minutes to go and you couldn’t seal the deal. The committee is going to remember that.
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Vegas is giving the best odds to Mariota right now; I’m guessing they’re just trying to recoup some money based on the payouts they’re going to have to make when Dak wins.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Auburn
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – I wonder if the refs will throw a flag in the closing seconds of this one?
Week 9 Big Games:
USC @ Utah – Utah is off to a 5-1 start, but their three PAC-12 games have been decided by a total of nine points. They did blow out Michigan in the Big House, but that’s not saying much this year. USC’s two losses came inexplicably to Boston College and that bizarre Hail Mary against ASU. Not sure what to expect in this one, except that Utah is similar in mold to Stanford (which almost beat USC) and Boston College – a physical line, power running game, and strong defense. Let’s take the Utes in a slugfest: 27 to 24.
Alabama @ Tennessee – Alabama 38 Tennessee 10 (if I don’t include this game every year I get yelled at from too many people in the South).
Week 9 Game of the Week:
Ole Miss @ LSU – Many folks are saying the LSU is going to pull the upset here; that Bo Wallace is due to make some more mistakes, and that LSU can’t possibly lose another one in Death Valley at night. They’re also point to their last two games to show that the Tigers’ have turned things around after their first two SEC games. Well, of course they looked better against Florida and Kentucky than against Mississippi State and Auburn! The Rebels and their #1 scoring defense keep rolling – Mississippi 38 LSU 27.
Until next time…
1) Let’s just get it over with right away: yes, it was a pick play. Notre Dame dared the ref’s to call it, and they did (even the head referee mouthed “are you sure?” when told of the foul). The two most unfortunate things about the play (other than the FSU player that tore his helmet off after the play and could’ve been flagged for that): 1) the Irish TD in the first half was an actual real pick and wasn’t called (and it should’ve been called) and 2) the final pick play wasn’t even necessary as Robinson was so wide open from blown coverage that the other two Irish receivers could’ve just stood on the line and not moved. As Kelly said: “they were rewarded for blown coverage.”
2) One last comment about FSU before we move on to the SEC and other conferences. I almost puked during Jimbo’s post game comments when he said that Florida State “is a high-character program that’s ran the right way, on class, on dignity, in the classroom, off the field, and this team shows it.” That reminded me of the All Valley Tournament scene in Karate Kid III when Terry Silver hypocritically talked about importance of giving back to the community through the self-confidence and inner peace instilled by Karate, and the virtues of honesty, compassion, and fair play. Sorry Jimbo, we ain’t buying it. I miss the days of Jimmy Johnson’s Miami teams where they didn’t pretend they weren’t criminals – they embraced it.
3) Of all the Top-15 teams, the one that I still don’t have a good read on is Kansas State. They’re just outside the Top-10 and are the only team remaining in the Big 12 that is undefeated in conference play. They got lucky to beat Oklahoma this weekend (ever seen one of the best kickers in the game hook a 19 yard FG wide left by 30 feet?), but also were in a great position to beat Auburn. Then again, they struggled @ Iowa State but looked great against Texas Tech. Even though they’re sitting in first in the Big 12 right now, they still have @ TCU, @ West Virginia, and @ Baylor. I don’t think they’re going to be sitting in first for long.
4) Everyone seems to have forgotten about the Big 10 after Ohio State’s loss to Virginia Tech and Michigan State’s loss to Oregon. But, those teams haven’t loss since, and they bring in the 3rd and 4th scoring offenses in the country. Sure, part of that is their competition, but don’t think that a one loss Big 10 Champion doesn’t have legitimate claim to be in the Top-4. Especially if it winds up being Michigan State which would have a win over Ohio State and two wins over Nebraska, with their sole loss to Oregon (who’s chances to win the PAC-12 and get in the playoff are getting better and better by the weekend). I can see it now – the Final Four winds up being two teams from the SEC-West and Michigan State and Oregon (assuming Florida State losses again somewhere along the way – oh wait, that’s right, they didn’t lose to Notre Dame. Grrr……right up there with the phantom clip against Colorado in the ’91 Orange Bowl or the Reggie Bush “I’ll just illegally push Matt Leinart into the endzone” in 2005). Oh wait, where was I? That’s right – imagine if the Final Four winds up being two rematches! So much for the “every week is a playoff” crowd…
5) Two reason’s you can tell it’s almost November: Alabama is back in the Top-5 in scoring defense, and Georgia is probably the best one loss team in the country. From the opening minutes, Alabama took it straight to Texas A&M and finally exposed the Aggie offense as a unit that lost their QB, best WR, and left tackle to the NFL. And, even without Gurley for the last two weeks, Georgia’s running game hasn’t missed a beat, and they’re not running away with the SEC-East. That cross-divisional game with Auburn in a few weeks seems to be the Bulldogs last major chance for a stumble before the SEC Championship Game. Speaking of Auburn – they have @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, and @ Alabama remaining. That quite possibly could be three more losses. Safe to the say, even though they have four in the Top-5 right now, the SEC-West isn’t done beating each other up.
6) West Virginia lost the turnover battle 0-3, but still beat Baylor. How? Well, Baylor’s 18 penalties sure didn’t help. But, with the score tied at 27 going into the 4th quarter, West Virginia’s defense really tightened down and kept Bryce Perry and crew in check. That’s something you haven’t heard much about in the Baylor-West Virginia matchups the last couple of years: defense. Great win in Morgantown for the Mountaineers, and if they keep winning, that’s going to help out Alabama with strength-of-schedule points.
7) Whenever people start to doubt Oregon, it seems Washington shows up on their schedule. After struggling against Washington State and losing to UofSuck, the Ducks took care of Oregon, and then blasted Washington like they always do – that’s not 11 straight years of 17+ point wins in the cross state matchup. With Stanford losing yet again, all of the sudden, November 8th @ Utah seems to be the Ducks last major hurdle before the PAC-12 Championship and a likely spot in the Top-4.
8) So who is Oregon going to face from the PAC-12 South? There’s a log jam happening right now, as four teams are sitting at one less, with USC holding the tie breaker over UofSuck, ASU holding the tie breaker over USC, and Utah having to play all three (plus Oregon and Stanford). It’s looking like the Territorial Cup may decide the PAC-12 South, assuming both ASU and UofSuck can hold serve until the last weekend in November. Regardless, for a team that gave up 62 to UCLA and was left for dead, I’ve been impressed with how ASU has responded by not quitting against USC in the Coliseum and by dominating a Stanford team on both sides of the ball. It should be noted that the PAC-12 South has four out of their five teams ranked in the Top 25. Take that, SEC West!
9) The old saying in college football is that it’s better to lose early than late. In the case of TCU, not only is it better to lose early than late, but also to not play anyone late. By the time LSU and Alabama tee it off late on November 8th, TCU will be done with their last real challenge against Kansas State. After that, they have Kansas, Texas, and Iowa State to close the season with no Conference Championship. If they find themselves in the top six or seven going into that game, they may just sneak into the Top-4 via attrition as here’s the other big games happening on November 8th or later: Ohio State @ Michigan State, Notre Dame @ Arizona State, Baylor @ Oklahoma, Mississippi State @ Alabama, Auburn @ Georgia, K State @ West Virginia, UCLA @ USC, Mississippi State @ Ole Miss, Auburn @ Alabama, Notre Dame @ USC, Kansas State @ Baylor, Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma, and the Big 10, PAC-12, SEC, and ACC Conference Championships. TCU’s got a great chance to not only win the Big 12 but to coast into the Top-4.
10) Regardless of what happens in the next seven or eight weeks, the committee is going to have their hands full – especially if they continue to state putting a high value on the result of head-to-head matchups. Michigan State is out because of the loss the Oregon. Same for Notre Dame at the hands of FSU. Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl losers? Out. No one wants to see those matchups again. So then you have to start looking at good losses versus bad losses. All those mentioned above are “good losses.” Oregon going to down to UofSuck, Georgia to South Carolina? Not so much. Yet, interestingly enough, Georgia and Oregon are playing some of the best football right now. The most interesting scenario is what happens if a one loss Georgia beats an undefeated Mississippi (or State) team in the SEC Championship. Georgia’s in for sure. But now you have a likely one loss team (or maybe two – winner of Iron Bowl may end with one loss) that didn’t make the conference championship and a one loss team that just lost the conference championship but beat their in-state rival the week before. Ah, my head hurts. Hopefully it’ll all be straightened out on the field in the next eight weeks, and given the history, it will. Even if there’s only one second left…
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (7-0) – After Louisville next week, their last “tough” game will be the ACC Championship against Duke or Pitt. But, I’m giving Louisville a chance – at home, on Thursday night…
#2. Mississippi State (6-0) – I don’t have you at #1 because you still have @ Alabama and @ Ole Miss (let alone the SEC Championship against Georgia – if you make it that far).
#3. Ole Miss (7-0) – @ LSU this weekend before Auburn comes to town next weekend. It’s a TRAP! Death Valley @ night. Good luck.
#4. Auburn (6-1) – @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, @ Alabama remaining, and don’t sleep against South Carolina this weekend.
#5. Alabama (6-1) – If you win @ Death Valley in three weeks, you lose v. Mississippi State the following weekend. If you lose @ LSU, you probably beat MSU. Regardless, another loss is coming, as Auburn’s still out there, too. Just not against Tennessee or Western Carolina.
#6. Oregon (6-1) – You might actually be able to beat Stanford this year is you can score 14+ points, as Stanford can’t seem to score more than 10-14 points against good teams.
#7. Michigan State (6-1) – Needs to run the table and needs SEC and PAC-12 losses to pile up.
#8. Notre Dame (6-1) – Ok, fine; you’re a top-10 team. Now just don’t blow it against Navy in a couple weeks.
#9. Georgia (6-1) – Just might be the best team in the whole SEC right now, and that’s saying a lot.
#10. TCU (6-1) – Up 21 @ Baylor with 11 minutes to go and you couldn’t seal the deal. The committee is going to remember that.
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Vegas is giving the best odds to Mariota right now; I’m guessing they’re just trying to recoup some money based on the payouts they’re going to have to make when Dak wins.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Auburn
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – I wonder if the refs will throw a flag in the closing seconds of this one?
Week 9 Big Games:
USC @ Utah – Utah is off to a 5-1 start, but their three PAC-12 games have been decided by a total of nine points. They did blow out Michigan in the Big House, but that’s not saying much this year. USC’s two losses came inexplicably to Boston College and that bizarre Hail Mary against ASU. Not sure what to expect in this one, except that Utah is similar in mold to Stanford (which almost beat USC) and Boston College – a physical line, power running game, and strong defense. Let’s take the Utes in a slugfest: 27 to 24.
Alabama @ Tennessee – Alabama 38 Tennessee 10 (if I don’t include this game every year I get yelled at from too many people in the South).
Week 9 Game of the Week:
Ole Miss @ LSU – Many folks are saying the LSU is going to pull the upset here; that Bo Wallace is due to make some more mistakes, and that LSU can’t possibly lose another one in Death Valley at night. They’re also point to their last two games to show that the Tigers’ have turned things around after their first two SEC games. Well, of course they looked better against Florida and Kentucky than against Mississippi State and Auburn! The Rebels and their #1 scoring defense keep rolling – Mississippi 38 LSU 27.
Until next time…
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