Week 3 has come and gone and we know this: Alabama is still good, but A&M and Johnny Football can still score, the PAC-12 is much improved, the Big 10 isn’t; and the NCAA continues to state that they won’t pay their athletes (so I guess the boosters and agents will have to continue to fill that void).
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 3 Top-10 recap:
1. I saw some bad calls this weekend (the targeting call against Alabama’s DB, rightfully overturned; a series of strange/bad calls in the Thursday night TCU/Texas Tech game – a “fumble” into the endzone prior to scoring a TD resulting in a dead ball at the half yard line, a failure to adequately not call a fair catch, or whatever the explanation was) but the end of the ASU/Wisconsin game takes the cake as far as flat out bad calls. Sure, the play by the Wisconsin QB was boneheaded (I’ve never seen a player spot the bad like that), and the response by ASU thinking it may have been an ill-advised fumble wasn’t the problem. The problem was the refs letting the clock run out without even blowing it dead to discuss what was happening. And then not even looking at it after the fact! With replay happening on insignificant plays in the first quarter of games, the NCAA must include a rule that in the final minute of play, everything is reviewable. Notice how I haven’t said that this scenario cost Wisconsin the game. They still would’ve needed to make the FG. What a strange ending to an otherwise entertaining game.
2. You really shouldn’t need three 4th quarter TD’s to beat Purdue, Notre Dame. I hate to say it, the only reason the Irish have a chance this year is because of Tommy Rees. The defense (which was supposed to be as good, if not better, than last year’s squad) has not been good. And, the schedule doesn’t get any easier: Michigan State, Oklahoma, Arizona State, and USC. Then it calms down a bit with Air Force, Navy, and Pitt; only to end with BYU and Stanford. Looking more and more like 7-5 for the Irish.
3. Akron almost pulled an Appalachian State against the Wolverines. Hey Michigan, when you’re 38-point favorites at home, you probably don’t need to have to have a goal-line-stand to save the day against the Zips.
4. Nebraska gets shut out at in the second half at home, and the Blackshirts give up 38 straight points to UCLA. Yikes. Pelini better pack his bags. 85th in the nation in scoring defense is not good; especially when two of your first three were against Wyoming and Southern Miss. At least Wisconsin and Ohio State aren’t on the schedule, and overall the Big 10 is down. 9-3 may not be good enough for Pelini to keep his job.
5. Speaking of coaches on the hot seat, Nebraska could probably get a fair deal in a trade for Mac Brown. Texas has lost two straight, and have lost three straight to both Kansas State and Red River Rival Oklahoma. I know Mac wants to leave on his own terms, but he may want to start packing too.
6. The PAC-12 was 8-1 in non-con games this weekend, including 3-1 against the Big 10; and, Cal actually looked pretty decent against thee Ohio State. The Big 10 was 7-5, but six of those wins were Bowling Green, Akron (barely), Western Illinois, Youngstown State, Iowa State, and Western Michigan. The PAC-12 is flying high; the B1G is not.
7. Every time I changed channels from the A&M/Alabama game to the Oregon game the result was the same. Oregon was flying in for yet another score. But, the Ducks looked pretty crappy in the first quarter with lots of penalties and mental mistakes. You can get away with that versus a Tennessee, but not many quality teams. The offense looks better than ever, and the defense continues to improve. However, two of their three remaining toughest games are on the road: @ Washington, and @ Stanford. I still don’t see a PAC-12 team that’s gonna slow down the Ducks. They’ll be #1 soon, just wait for it.
8. In the most exciting game of the weekend that no one saw, Oregon State took down Utah 51-48 in overtime. If you’re into gambling, you may want to start looking at overs in these Beavers games. They’re scoring 43/game but are 110th in the nation in scoring defense, giving up 37/game. And their season ending schedule is brutal – v. Stanford, v. USC, @ Arizona State, v. Washington, and @ Oregon in the Civil War. It’s gonna be a long year for Oregon State fans – if there are any left.
9. A couple of things to take home from the A&M/Alabama game (yet again the game of the week that did not disappoint): Manziel’s two INTs cost A&M 14 points – one in the endzone and one returned by ‘Bama for a TD. Alabama’s defense gave up the most yards it ever has. Ever. Alabama’s offensive line looked great; but it was against A&M’s defensive line (remember the team that gave up 509 yards to Rice). Bottom line, ‘Bama’s the better team, and once they got the lead, it was clear that Saban and Co. wasn’t going to give it up.
10. The anti-playoff folks say that every week is a playoff. Well, even though there were many cupcake games on week 3’s schedule (yes, Michigan, Akron was a cupcake); check out what’s upcoming this weekend for the AP Top-25: #1 Alabama v. Colorado State, #2 Oregon (bye), #3 Clemson v. North Carolina State, #4 Ohio State v. Florida A&M, #7 Louisville v. Florida International, #8 Florida State v. Bethune-Cookman, #9 Georgia v. North Texas, #10 Texas A&M v. SMU, #11 Oklahoma State (bye), #12 South Carolina (bye), #13 UCLA v. New Mexico State, #14 Oklahoma (bye), #15 Michigan @ Connecticut, #16 Miami v. Savannah State, #17 Washington v. Idaho State, #18 Northwestern v. Maine, #19 Florida v. Tennessee, #20 Baylor v. Louisiana-Monroe, #21 Ole Miss (bye), #24 Wisconsin v. Purdue, and #25 Texas Tech v. Texas State. So, outside of #5 Stanford v. #23 Arizona State, #6 LSU v. Auburn, and #22 Notre Dame v. Michigan State, if there’s going to be any upsets this weekend, they’ll be huge upsets. Don’t expect the Top-10 to change much after this weekend.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (3-0) – Oregon’s so good they’re gonna score 59 on Bye.
#2 Ohio State (3-0) – At least one Big 10 team beat a PAC-12 team.
#3 Stanford (2-0) – My confidence in you is fading…struggling to put Army away? Let’s see how you do against Arizona State this weekend, back at the farm.
#4 Alabama (2-0) – Offensive output was surprising, defense looked the most vulnerable it has in years.
#5 Louisville (12-0) – Did you accept your Orange Bowl bid yet?
#6 Clemson (2-0) – Probably should be closer to #3 in my poll, but gotta wait until LSU beats Alabama and Oregon beats Stanford. And, you need to beat Florida State.
#7 Oklahoma State (3-0) – It figures that the year OU and Texas are really down, and Oklahoma State looks great, the eye of NCAA is peering down on the Cowboys for violations.
#8 Georgia (1-1) – You’ve got the offense to put up points on ‘Bama in the SEC Championship, but your defense isn’t much better than A&M’s.
#9 Florida State (2-0) – But, which four TD underdog will you lose to this year?
#10 LSU (3-0) – Mettenberger leads the SEC in passing efficiency. Yes, you heard that right. Not McCarron from Alabama, Johnny from A&M, Murray from Georgia, or Shaw from South Carolina. And LSU may have the best defense in the SEC.
Heisman Watch:
Tajh Boyd, Clemson – Boyd had a bye; gets back at it Thursday night @ NC State.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – This requires Alabama losing somewhere along the way…
Week 4 Big Games:
Auburn @ LSU – Auburn’s off to a surprising 3-0 start, but LSU isn’t Washington State, Arkansas State, or Mississippi State. Then again, is LSU peeking ahead to next week’s road trip to Athens? Not this time. LSU may be the most balanced team in the SEC right now. LSU 34 Auburn 14.
Week 4 Game of the Week:
Arizona State @ Stanford – ASU comes in on a high note, with a wild win over Wisconsin. Stanford hasn’t been all that impressive through their two games, but they really haven’t had to be. The national spotlight will be on Stanford this weekend, as there’s no other match-ups of ranked teams, and the country wants to see if they are worth the hype. ASU’s gonna want to create some tempo, but Stanford’s going to want to slow it down. ASU is a much improved team, but they’re not quite ready for the big time. Stanford 31 ASU 27.
Until next time…
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Week 2 Recap and Week 3 Preview
Week 2 is in the books, and in case you didn’t know, Oregon can score and score quickly, Notre Dame’s defense ain’t the 2012 crew that propelled the Irish to the National Championship game, Georgia’s still the best one loss team in the country, and whomever had Clowney as their preseason pick for the Heisman is an idiot. Oops.
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 2 Top-10 recap:
1. After Tommy Rees threw that INT towards the end of the first half and Michigan scored yet again, I thought that game was over. Yet, at the end, Rees and company continued to fight back (even though the defense continued to suck it up) and we had another classic Notre Dame and Michigan finish. I’m really gonna miss that series. So many good memories. One last time next year in South Bend.
2. Well, Western Kentucky isn’t going to bust the BCS this year. It’s really hard to win games when you turn it over five times in six plays in the first quarter. Even against Tennessee.
3. Washington State beat USC in the Coliseum for the first time in 13 years, and did so without scoring an offensive touchdown. I wonder if Pat Haden is still 100% behind Lame Kiffin? USC has now dropped six of their last eight, after being the AP Preseason #1 last year. When are these AD’s gonna realize that Lame ain’t Monte, and he isn’t head coach material? Last season, for the first time in 50 years, a team went from #1 to unranked. Now they only put up 193 yards against Washington State (not exactly ’85 Bears material)? And remember his “success” with the Raiders (5-15) or his one year with Tennessee (7-6)? I wish I could be paid millions of dollars for repeated mediocrity.
4. You’re seeing a swagger from A&M that I don’t think many expected this soon into their SEC tenure. Of course, it’s only been against Rice and Sam Houston State, but Johnny Autograph and company seem to have picked up right where they left off last year. Just in time for Alabama to come to town.
5. Texas loses to BYU and Oklahoma struggled against a not-so-good West Virginia team. Let’s face it, Texas and OU just aren’t that good. The Big 12 looks to be Oklahoma State’s unless this latest pay-for-play scandal creates some distractions.
6. Ohio State rolled over San Diego State, and they did so without Braxton Miller for most of the game. He’s still day-to-day with that knee injury, but it’s pretty clear the Buckeyes are a completely different offense without him. Their chances of running the table diminish pretty quick if he’s not healthy.
7. LSU’s offense is firing on all cylinders, and they still have a couple warm up games before heading to Georgia on September 28th. If the Tigers can pull off that upset, it’s pretty smooth sailing until November 9th @ Alabama and @ Texas A&M following a bye week. The SEC West will be decided those two weekends.
8. Missouri and Tennessee are the only undefeated teams in the SEC East. Raise your hand if you thought that would be the case after week 2. Of course five of Tennessee’s next six are @ Oregon, @ Florida, v. Georgia, v. South Carolina, @ Alabama. Better make hay against South Alabama in a couple weeks.
9. The look on the Virginia fans’ faces was priceless after Mariota went 71 yards untouched on a QB draw on 3rd and five on Oregon’s first possession. Oregon is for real.
10. Once again, the game of the week lived up to the hype as Georgia South Carolina exchanged hay makers for four quarters. Georgia’s got a pro-style offensive, but their defense is going to need to improve before the LSU game in a couple weeks. After the LSU game, their schedule lightens up, with only Florida remaining as a currently ranked team. And you know what they always say, better to lose early than late. That close loss to Clemson is already a distant memory.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (2-0) – 25.5 favorites @ Virginia and they won by nearly double that. Good luck traveling to Eugene, Tennessee.
#2 Ohio State (2-0) – Braxston Miller’s injury is cause for concern, but that again, you don’t play anyone until Wisconsin comes to town at the end of September.
#3 Stanford (1-0) – 3 TD victory over San Jose State, a team you only beat by FG last year. Don’t let me down, Stanford!
#4 Alabama (1-0) – The game we’ve been waiting a long time for…@ A&M.
#5 Louisville (12-0) – Okay, I’ll even give you the Cincy game now.
#6 Clemson (2-0) – Looking good, but I won’t be sold until you beat Florida State.
#7 Oklahoma State (2-0) – U.T. San Antonio exposed your defense. Then again, when has Oklahoma State ever had a defense?
#8 Georgia (1-1) – By far the best one loss team in football.
#9 Texas A&M (2-0) – Can you beat Alabama twice in a row?
#10 Florida State (1-0) – All of the sudden that game v. The U looks more difficult than your trip to the Swamp.
Heisman Watch:
Tajh Boyd, Clemson – Needs a big game against Florida State, and no other stumbles along the way. Though Bridgewater at Louisville is close behind, putting up video game like numbers.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Ohio State needs to get healthy or they’ll be booted from this prediction even before the Wisconsin game. An Alabama loss this weekend and everyone will have Oregon #1 after they drop 60+ on Tennessee.
Week 3 Big Games:
UCLA @ Nebraska – Last year the Bruins surprised Nebraska. But that was in California, and not in Lincoln. And, how will UCLA be mentality after the tragic death of one of their players? Don’t think the Blackshirts improved much based on what they did against Southern Miss. Southern Miss hasn’t won a game since 2011. And, Nebraska did give up more than 300 yards in the first half to Wyoming in the opener. Emotionally, UCLA will be prepared. This game will come down to the turnover battle. Don’t expect UCLA to give up four times (including two pick sixes) like So. Miss did. UCLA beats Nebraska. Again. 37 to 31.
Tennessee @ Oregon – The only reason I have this as a big game is because it’s being played at the same time as Alabama @ A&M, so no one is going to watch. You really need to watch this Oregon team. They’re gonna be everyone’s #1 soon. Oregon 64 Tennessee 20
Wisconsin @ Arizona State – In another marquee Big 10 v. PAC 12 match-up, 20th ranked Wisconsin comes to the desert against unranked Arizona State. These teams are #1 and #2 in the nation in total defense right now, then again their first few opponents were crappy, with these teams winning the three games a combined 148-0. Remember that ASU nearly upset a much better Wisconsin team in Camp Randall two years ago, and this Wisconsin team struggled early in the year last year losing @ Oregon State. The biggest question is whether or not ASU’s defensive line can hold up to Wisconsin’s relentless rushing attack. Uh, have you seen Will Sutton?? And, interestingly enough, ASU comes in as a four point favorite. Oh, and ASU is 8-0 at home against the Big 10. Let’s make it 9-0. ASU 34 Wisconsin 31.
Week 3 Game of the Week:
Alabama @ Texas A&M – How do you even break down this match-up? Let’s rewind to last year…Alabama had just come home after an emotional come-from-behind win @ LSU @ night. A&M was hot, and Alabama was flat. A&M scored three quick TDs and it looked like Alabama was done. Then A&M missed that third extra point and all of the sudden momentum shifted. Alabama spotted the Aggies three TDs, committed three turnovers themselves, and yet still found themselves goal-to-go with a chance to win it in the fourth quarter. You know Saban and company have been scheming for this one since McCarron’s INT that sealed it for A&M. The key to this game will be if Alabama can retain its focus and composure; especially in front of a hostile crowd in College Station. A&M will score, and score quite a bit – this isn’t your 2011 or 2012 Alabama defense. And, this isn’t your 2012 Alabama offensive line that allowed that fourth quarter comeback against LSU, that second half comeback against A&M, and that dominant performance against Notre Dame. As much as I respect Alabama’s program, and as annoying as I find Johnny Autograph, I was even more shocked to see Vegas had Alabama as a seven point favorite. I think we’ll see something similar to the 2010 Alabama/Auburn game. Alabama just won’t have enough to slow down, or to keep up with A&M. Wrong team favored – A&M 27 Alabama 20.
Until next time…
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 2 Top-10 recap:
1. After Tommy Rees threw that INT towards the end of the first half and Michigan scored yet again, I thought that game was over. Yet, at the end, Rees and company continued to fight back (even though the defense continued to suck it up) and we had another classic Notre Dame and Michigan finish. I’m really gonna miss that series. So many good memories. One last time next year in South Bend.
2. Well, Western Kentucky isn’t going to bust the BCS this year. It’s really hard to win games when you turn it over five times in six plays in the first quarter. Even against Tennessee.
3. Washington State beat USC in the Coliseum for the first time in 13 years, and did so without scoring an offensive touchdown. I wonder if Pat Haden is still 100% behind Lame Kiffin? USC has now dropped six of their last eight, after being the AP Preseason #1 last year. When are these AD’s gonna realize that Lame ain’t Monte, and he isn’t head coach material? Last season, for the first time in 50 years, a team went from #1 to unranked. Now they only put up 193 yards against Washington State (not exactly ’85 Bears material)? And remember his “success” with the Raiders (5-15) or his one year with Tennessee (7-6)? I wish I could be paid millions of dollars for repeated mediocrity.
4. You’re seeing a swagger from A&M that I don’t think many expected this soon into their SEC tenure. Of course, it’s only been against Rice and Sam Houston State, but Johnny Autograph and company seem to have picked up right where they left off last year. Just in time for Alabama to come to town.
5. Texas loses to BYU and Oklahoma struggled against a not-so-good West Virginia team. Let’s face it, Texas and OU just aren’t that good. The Big 12 looks to be Oklahoma State’s unless this latest pay-for-play scandal creates some distractions.
6. Ohio State rolled over San Diego State, and they did so without Braxton Miller for most of the game. He’s still day-to-day with that knee injury, but it’s pretty clear the Buckeyes are a completely different offense without him. Their chances of running the table diminish pretty quick if he’s not healthy.
7. LSU’s offense is firing on all cylinders, and they still have a couple warm up games before heading to Georgia on September 28th. If the Tigers can pull off that upset, it’s pretty smooth sailing until November 9th @ Alabama and @ Texas A&M following a bye week. The SEC West will be decided those two weekends.
8. Missouri and Tennessee are the only undefeated teams in the SEC East. Raise your hand if you thought that would be the case after week 2. Of course five of Tennessee’s next six are @ Oregon, @ Florida, v. Georgia, v. South Carolina, @ Alabama. Better make hay against South Alabama in a couple weeks.
9. The look on the Virginia fans’ faces was priceless after Mariota went 71 yards untouched on a QB draw on 3rd and five on Oregon’s first possession. Oregon is for real.
10. Once again, the game of the week lived up to the hype as Georgia South Carolina exchanged hay makers for four quarters. Georgia’s got a pro-style offensive, but their defense is going to need to improve before the LSU game in a couple weeks. After the LSU game, their schedule lightens up, with only Florida remaining as a currently ranked team. And you know what they always say, better to lose early than late. That close loss to Clemson is already a distant memory.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (2-0) – 25.5 favorites @ Virginia and they won by nearly double that. Good luck traveling to Eugene, Tennessee.
#2 Ohio State (2-0) – Braxston Miller’s injury is cause for concern, but that again, you don’t play anyone until Wisconsin comes to town at the end of September.
#3 Stanford (1-0) – 3 TD victory over San Jose State, a team you only beat by FG last year. Don’t let me down, Stanford!
#4 Alabama (1-0) – The game we’ve been waiting a long time for…@ A&M.
#5 Louisville (12-0) – Okay, I’ll even give you the Cincy game now.
#6 Clemson (2-0) – Looking good, but I won’t be sold until you beat Florida State.
#7 Oklahoma State (2-0) – U.T. San Antonio exposed your defense. Then again, when has Oklahoma State ever had a defense?
#8 Georgia (1-1) – By far the best one loss team in football.
#9 Texas A&M (2-0) – Can you beat Alabama twice in a row?
#10 Florida State (1-0) – All of the sudden that game v. The U looks more difficult than your trip to the Swamp.
Heisman Watch:
Tajh Boyd, Clemson – Needs a big game against Florida State, and no other stumbles along the way. Though Bridgewater at Louisville is close behind, putting up video game like numbers.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Ohio State needs to get healthy or they’ll be booted from this prediction even before the Wisconsin game. An Alabama loss this weekend and everyone will have Oregon #1 after they drop 60+ on Tennessee.
Week 3 Big Games:
UCLA @ Nebraska – Last year the Bruins surprised Nebraska. But that was in California, and not in Lincoln. And, how will UCLA be mentality after the tragic death of one of their players? Don’t think the Blackshirts improved much based on what they did against Southern Miss. Southern Miss hasn’t won a game since 2011. And, Nebraska did give up more than 300 yards in the first half to Wyoming in the opener. Emotionally, UCLA will be prepared. This game will come down to the turnover battle. Don’t expect UCLA to give up four times (including two pick sixes) like So. Miss did. UCLA beats Nebraska. Again. 37 to 31.
Tennessee @ Oregon – The only reason I have this as a big game is because it’s being played at the same time as Alabama @ A&M, so no one is going to watch. You really need to watch this Oregon team. They’re gonna be everyone’s #1 soon. Oregon 64 Tennessee 20
Wisconsin @ Arizona State – In another marquee Big 10 v. PAC 12 match-up, 20th ranked Wisconsin comes to the desert against unranked Arizona State. These teams are #1 and #2 in the nation in total defense right now, then again their first few opponents were crappy, with these teams winning the three games a combined 148-0. Remember that ASU nearly upset a much better Wisconsin team in Camp Randall two years ago, and this Wisconsin team struggled early in the year last year losing @ Oregon State. The biggest question is whether or not ASU’s defensive line can hold up to Wisconsin’s relentless rushing attack. Uh, have you seen Will Sutton?? And, interestingly enough, ASU comes in as a four point favorite. Oh, and ASU is 8-0 at home against the Big 10. Let’s make it 9-0. ASU 34 Wisconsin 31.
Week 3 Game of the Week:
Alabama @ Texas A&M – How do you even break down this match-up? Let’s rewind to last year…Alabama had just come home after an emotional come-from-behind win @ LSU @ night. A&M was hot, and Alabama was flat. A&M scored three quick TDs and it looked like Alabama was done. Then A&M missed that third extra point and all of the sudden momentum shifted. Alabama spotted the Aggies three TDs, committed three turnovers themselves, and yet still found themselves goal-to-go with a chance to win it in the fourth quarter. You know Saban and company have been scheming for this one since McCarron’s INT that sealed it for A&M. The key to this game will be if Alabama can retain its focus and composure; especially in front of a hostile crowd in College Station. A&M will score, and score quite a bit – this isn’t your 2011 or 2012 Alabama defense. And, this isn’t your 2012 Alabama offensive line that allowed that fourth quarter comeback against LSU, that second half comeback against A&M, and that dominant performance against Notre Dame. As much as I respect Alabama’s program, and as annoying as I find Johnny Autograph, I was even more shocked to see Vegas had Alabama as a seven point favorite. I think we’ll see something similar to the 2010 Alabama/Auburn game. Alabama just won’t have enough to slow down, or to keep up with A&M. Wrong team favored – A&M 27 Alabama 20.
Until next time…
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
Week 1 Recap and Week 2 Preview
Week 1 is in the books, and my Top-10 is largely unchanged. I just flip-flopped Clemson and Georgia. I don’t get why the AP makes changes at the top when you don’t play or you still win. Does Stanford really look that bad by not playing that they drop in the polls? And does Oregon’s blow out against whomever they played (I really can’t remember) all of the sudden make them look better than Ohio State because the Buckeyes struggled at times against Buffalo? I’m glad the playoffs will be chosen by a committee rather than letting the human polls have such an impact…
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 1 Top-10 recap:
1. Do you think some of these schools are rethinking paying FCS teams a ton of money to come play? Seven FCS teams took down FBS schools this weekend, most notably Eastern Washington going into Corvallis and taking out the ranked Beavers and not so surprisingly North Dakota State taking out Kansas State in Manhattan. I mean, we knew K-State wasn’t going to be the team they were last year, and the Bison have a history of beating FBS teams (now 7-3).
2. Oh boy does Kevin Sumlin have his hands full with Johnny Autograph. Not only did the spoiled little rich kid make a mockery of himself against Rice, but after the stupid taunting penalty and bumping through his coach after Sumlin tried to talk to him, his response is to bench him for the rest of the game? If you really want to make a statement Kevin, bench him for the next game AND the first quarter against Alabama. Watching this spoiled little rich kid melt-down is supposed to be TMZ material for the likes of Lindsay Lohan and Miley Cyrus, not the defending Heisman winner. Oh, and did I mention this was Rice? If lowly Rice (who put up 509 yards of offense by the way) gets under Manziel’s skin this easily, imagine what Saban, C.J. Mosley and company are gonna do when Alabama comes to town in a couple weeks.
3. Washington’s “upset” of Boise pretty much eliminates the BCS buster for the year. If Washington can figure out how to win on the road, they’ve got a chance to make some noise in the PAC-12 North. And, they do get Oregon at home. Of course though, they’ll likely lose on the road @ Illinois this weekend.
4. When I mentioned Boise losing “pretty much eliminates” a BCS buster this year, keep an eye on the Western Kentucky @ Tennessee game this weekend. Western Kentucky could make it 2-0 against the SEC, and don’t think that won’t come into play if they end up running the table.
5. I’m torn on the NCAA’s new targeting rule – aka, the when in doubt, throw ‘em out rule. I understand the emphasis on player protection and the typical 15-yard penalty wasn’t deterring any hits. But, it’s football. Hard hitting is part of the game. Clowney’s hit against Michigan in the bowl game last year probably qualifies under this new rule. And I hate when I see players slide to avoid a hit to the mid section that results in a blast to the head. We’ll see what impact this new rule has, and so far I think the refs are batting about 50/50 when it comes to “correct” interpretation of the rule.
6. A few Top-25 teams escaped with wins this weekend; most notably Ohio State and Nebraska. Ohio State just looked slow, and Nebraska’s defense obviously hasn’t improved since last year. Being outgained by Wyoming in Lincoln is never a good thing. At least Ohio State and Wisconsin aren’t on the schedule.
7. The PAC-12 South is the only unbeaten conference or subconference after week 1. And with Utah and Colorado in the division, that’s saying something. Of course Utah barely got by Utah State and Colorado always struggles with Colorado State…
8. Speaking of struggles, Notre Dame didn’t give up a rushing TD until game 8 against Oklahoma last year, and already gave up one against Temple this year. That’s right, a team picked to finish in the basement of the Big East…errrrr….AAC scored a rushing TD against Notre Dame. Uh oh. But, Rees and the offense looked better than I thought they would; sadly, it won’t be enough to get by Michigan this weekend.
9. LSU had an efficient, balanced offense and stellar defense against TCU, yet the game was still in doubt into the 4th. Miles’ offensive looked good under their new offensive coordinator, but going 13-19 on 3rd down will always make an offense look good. LSU should cruise to 4-0 before they travel to Georgia on September 28th.
10. The game of the week lived up to the hype with Clemson holding off Georgia for a huge opening night win. Tajh Boyd is now in the Heisman discussion, and Sammy Watkins continues to live up to the hype at wide receiver. Ultimately, Clemson needed this one more to stay in the National Title hunt, but Georgia has to beat South Carolina this weekend, or they’re done.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (1-0) – 59 point favorites and they covered! And they’re crawling up the AP poll as well. Don’t worry, they’ll have you #1 soon enough.
#2 Ohio State (1-0) – A little hint; don’t let teams like Buffalo keep it close if you want to stay #2.
#3 South Carolina (1-0) – Gonna need to improve on both sides to have a chance this weekend against Georgia.
#4 Stanford (0-0) – Week 1 bye? Really?
#5 Alabama (1-0) – The defense and special teams looked great. The offense? Not so much…
#6 Louisville (11-0) – No that’s not a misprint. I’ve you 11-0 to save me the trouble of updating it every week. Note that I’m not sure you win @ Cincy to end the year…
#7 Clemson (1-0) – Impressive win to open the season. Next up: October 19th when Florida State comes to Death Valley.
#8 Oklahoma State (1-0) – Bring on the U.T. San Antonio Road Runners!
#9 Georgia (0-1) – By far the best one loss team in football.
#10 Florida (1-0) – What was Herbstreit smoking that he had you losing to Toldeo?
Heisman Watch:
Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina – If this is the kind of scrutiny he’s going to be under every game, he doesn’t stand a chance. I’ve never seen as much attention paid to whether or not a defensive lineman was in the game or not, if he had one hand or two hands on his knees during a huddle, how much he was breathing or not, etc. etc. etc. Yikes. Hope that’s just a week 1 thing.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Oregon looked great; Ohio State did not. But, unlike the AP, I don’t change rankings when you win.
Week 2 Big Games:
Florida @ Miami – Old rivals (errr….big regional game?) that haven’t met since 2008 are back at it for one last time. Florida’s defense picked up right where they left off last year. Miami’s not quite back to the Miami of old, but they’re on their way. I like Florida 27 to 17.
Notre Dame @ Michigan – The last three between these rivals have been chaos – Michigan blowing a 21-7 lead in 2010 only to score in the final minute to win it; Notre Dame blowing 24-7 4th quarter lead, ending with three lead changes in the final two minutes in 2011; and of course the ugliness of the 2012 game in which we realized that Notre Dame’s defense was legit, forcing six turnovers and holding Michigan to six points. There will be more points than the 13-6 version of last year. Let’s pick Michigan 23 to 20.
Week 2 Game of the Week:
South Carolina @ Georgia – Georgia had its heart stomped out in Death Valley last weekend, but they can get right back into it this weekend at home against South Carolina. In order for my prediction of an SEC-less BCS Championship, I need Georgia to win this one. And have Georgia beat LSU. And LSU beat Alabama, and Alabama beat A&M. Piece one starts this weekend: Georgia 34 South Carolina 24.
Until next time…
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 1 Top-10 recap:
1. Do you think some of these schools are rethinking paying FCS teams a ton of money to come play? Seven FCS teams took down FBS schools this weekend, most notably Eastern Washington going into Corvallis and taking out the ranked Beavers and not so surprisingly North Dakota State taking out Kansas State in Manhattan. I mean, we knew K-State wasn’t going to be the team they were last year, and the Bison have a history of beating FBS teams (now 7-3).
2. Oh boy does Kevin Sumlin have his hands full with Johnny Autograph. Not only did the spoiled little rich kid make a mockery of himself against Rice, but after the stupid taunting penalty and bumping through his coach after Sumlin tried to talk to him, his response is to bench him for the rest of the game? If you really want to make a statement Kevin, bench him for the next game AND the first quarter against Alabama. Watching this spoiled little rich kid melt-down is supposed to be TMZ material for the likes of Lindsay Lohan and Miley Cyrus, not the defending Heisman winner. Oh, and did I mention this was Rice? If lowly Rice (who put up 509 yards of offense by the way) gets under Manziel’s skin this easily, imagine what Saban, C.J. Mosley and company are gonna do when Alabama comes to town in a couple weeks.
3. Washington’s “upset” of Boise pretty much eliminates the BCS buster for the year. If Washington can figure out how to win on the road, they’ve got a chance to make some noise in the PAC-12 North. And, they do get Oregon at home. Of course though, they’ll likely lose on the road @ Illinois this weekend.
4. When I mentioned Boise losing “pretty much eliminates” a BCS buster this year, keep an eye on the Western Kentucky @ Tennessee game this weekend. Western Kentucky could make it 2-0 against the SEC, and don’t think that won’t come into play if they end up running the table.
5. I’m torn on the NCAA’s new targeting rule – aka, the when in doubt, throw ‘em out rule. I understand the emphasis on player protection and the typical 15-yard penalty wasn’t deterring any hits. But, it’s football. Hard hitting is part of the game. Clowney’s hit against Michigan in the bowl game last year probably qualifies under this new rule. And I hate when I see players slide to avoid a hit to the mid section that results in a blast to the head. We’ll see what impact this new rule has, and so far I think the refs are batting about 50/50 when it comes to “correct” interpretation of the rule.
6. A few Top-25 teams escaped with wins this weekend; most notably Ohio State and Nebraska. Ohio State just looked slow, and Nebraska’s defense obviously hasn’t improved since last year. Being outgained by Wyoming in Lincoln is never a good thing. At least Ohio State and Wisconsin aren’t on the schedule.
7. The PAC-12 South is the only unbeaten conference or subconference after week 1. And with Utah and Colorado in the division, that’s saying something. Of course Utah barely got by Utah State and Colorado always struggles with Colorado State…
8. Speaking of struggles, Notre Dame didn’t give up a rushing TD until game 8 against Oklahoma last year, and already gave up one against Temple this year. That’s right, a team picked to finish in the basement of the Big East…errrrr….AAC scored a rushing TD against Notre Dame. Uh oh. But, Rees and the offense looked better than I thought they would; sadly, it won’t be enough to get by Michigan this weekend.
9. LSU had an efficient, balanced offense and stellar defense against TCU, yet the game was still in doubt into the 4th. Miles’ offensive looked good under their new offensive coordinator, but going 13-19 on 3rd down will always make an offense look good. LSU should cruise to 4-0 before they travel to Georgia on September 28th.
10. The game of the week lived up to the hype with Clemson holding off Georgia for a huge opening night win. Tajh Boyd is now in the Heisman discussion, and Sammy Watkins continues to live up to the hype at wide receiver. Ultimately, Clemson needed this one more to stay in the National Title hunt, but Georgia has to beat South Carolina this weekend, or they’re done.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (1-0) – 59 point favorites and they covered! And they’re crawling up the AP poll as well. Don’t worry, they’ll have you #1 soon enough.
#2 Ohio State (1-0) – A little hint; don’t let teams like Buffalo keep it close if you want to stay #2.
#3 South Carolina (1-0) – Gonna need to improve on both sides to have a chance this weekend against Georgia.
#4 Stanford (0-0) – Week 1 bye? Really?
#5 Alabama (1-0) – The defense and special teams looked great. The offense? Not so much…
#6 Louisville (11-0) – No that’s not a misprint. I’ve you 11-0 to save me the trouble of updating it every week. Note that I’m not sure you win @ Cincy to end the year…
#7 Clemson (1-0) – Impressive win to open the season. Next up: October 19th when Florida State comes to Death Valley.
#8 Oklahoma State (1-0) – Bring on the U.T. San Antonio Road Runners!
#9 Georgia (0-1) – By far the best one loss team in football.
#10 Florida (1-0) – What was Herbstreit smoking that he had you losing to Toldeo?
Heisman Watch:
Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina – If this is the kind of scrutiny he’s going to be under every game, he doesn’t stand a chance. I’ve never seen as much attention paid to whether or not a defensive lineman was in the game or not, if he had one hand or two hands on his knees during a huddle, how much he was breathing or not, etc. etc. etc. Yikes. Hope that’s just a week 1 thing.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Oregon looked great; Ohio State did not. But, unlike the AP, I don’t change rankings when you win.
Week 2 Big Games:
Florida @ Miami – Old rivals (errr….big regional game?) that haven’t met since 2008 are back at it for one last time. Florida’s defense picked up right where they left off last year. Miami’s not quite back to the Miami of old, but they’re on their way. I like Florida 27 to 17.
Notre Dame @ Michigan – The last three between these rivals have been chaos – Michigan blowing a 21-7 lead in 2010 only to score in the final minute to win it; Notre Dame blowing 24-7 4th quarter lead, ending with three lead changes in the final two minutes in 2011; and of course the ugliness of the 2012 game in which we realized that Notre Dame’s defense was legit, forcing six turnovers and holding Michigan to six points. There will be more points than the 13-6 version of last year. Let’s pick Michigan 23 to 20.
Week 2 Game of the Week:
South Carolina @ Georgia – Georgia had its heart stomped out in Death Valley last weekend, but they can get right back into it this weekend at home against South Carolina. In order for my prediction of an SEC-less BCS Championship, I need Georgia to win this one. And have Georgia beat LSU. And LSU beat Alabama, and Alabama beat A&M. Piece one starts this weekend: Georgia 34 South Carolina 24.
Until next time…
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
Week 1 Preview
I must admit, the beginning of college football season is always bittersweet for me. Sure, it means my Saturdays (and Thursdays) are tied up for hours on end with endless entertainment and intrigue, but it also means summer is over and with it brings on cold and dreary days, darkness driving to and from work, new episodes of “Gold Rush,” and the other signs of the upcoming winter. But, I will admit, as giddy as I get in February and March when CBS starts airing the Master’s teasers (admit it, you just heard Jim Nantz say “A tradition like no other, the Masters…..on CBS”), I have been even more excited seeing the “College Football returns August 29th” teasers on ESPN.
So, with only two days to go until the 2013-2014 kick-off, the Autumn Wind is back for its 7th season. In this preseason edition, I’ll list my top things to watch for this year; I’ll offer up my games of the week; and my pre-season Top-10, why they’ll win it, and why they won’t. Of course BCS title and Heisman trophy predictions will follow, and in typical Wind fashion, will change weekly until I get it right. For year 7 of the Autumn Wind, let’s look at the top 7 things to watch for this season.
1. All the talk of the off-season (well, not involving fake girlfriends and autographs, at least) has been if Alabama can three-peat. I don’t think so, and here are six reasons why: 1) Let’s not forget Alabama needed help the last two years to even get to the title game. Sure, once in the title game they’ve been dominant, but they were on the outside looking in going into the final weeks of the season each of the last two years. 2) Huge losses on both the offensive and defensive lines; you don’t just replace three All-American’s off the offensive line. You see it quite a bit in college football – you need to be superior on both lines to compete for the title. 3) There’s a sense of complacency in Tuscaloosa; it’s just expected that Alabama is gonna win it all. That spells trouble, especially when…4) There could be three (or more) teams (Ohio State, Oregon, Louisville) that finish undefeated and I don’t think one of those will be from the SEC; a one-loss SEC team isn’t going to the title this year. 5) Even if Alabama gets to the SEC Championship, I’m not sure they get by South Carolina; or Florida; or Georgia. And finally, 6) it’s extremely tough (i.e. unpossible) to win three in a row and four outta five in college football. So, this year is lining up to be the first in seven years without a SEC team winning the BCS. For all these reasons, I’m one of the few that doesn’t have Alabama #1. They’ll be in the discussion for sure; especially with a relatively easy schedule (only A&M and LSU are in the preseason Top-25; and both of those come after a bye week).
2. This is the year of the PAC-12; I’m calling it now. The winner of the November 7th Oregon @ Stanford game will finish undefeated and wind up in the BCS championship game. If you haven’t watched these teams play the last couple of years, you’re missing out. Oregon has finished in the top-5 the last three seasons (12 wins a year); been to four straight BCS games (something no other school can claim right now); they’re schedule is favorable with non-con games against Virginia and Tennessee; and they have a bye the weekend before the Thursday night game @ Stanford. Stanford’s been to three straight BCS games and has won 11+ games three years a row for the first time in school history. They’re big on both lines, and their defense that led the nation in sacks per game returns nine starters. Their only weakness is at running back (seriously, how do you replace the school’s all-time leading rusher), but their running-back-by-committee will work – especially when they have Barry Sanders Jr. starting to get some time. There is a trap game on the schedule though, @ Oregon State sandwiched in between the games against UCLA and Oregon; which is why I like Oregon to win the PAC-12 and go to the BCS Championship.
3. Brian Kelly said before the BCS Championship last year that Notre Dame was “a year away” – almost a prophet-like prediction that the Tide were gonna roll the Irish. Even after losing T’eo, the defense is stacked with Louis Nix and Stephon Tuitt upfront, three returning linebackers including Prince Shembo, and three returners in the secondary. The problem is their offense. They lost their top two running backs and their best tight end, and of course don’t have their planned QB-of-the-future who was booted for academic reasons; or something. Last year, seven of their wins came in games where they scored 22 or fewer points. With key losses at QB, RB, and TE, the defense is gonna have to be as good, or better, than last year to keep the Irish in games. And they’ve a brutal four game stretch with Michigan State, Oklahoma, Arizona State, and USC. Not to mention road games against Michigan and Stanford early and late in the year. 9-3 would be an incredible success, but I’m guessing it’ll be closer to 7-5 (then again, I predicted 6-6 last year).
4. The off season drama revolving around Johnny Manziel has been tough to watch. Between the bar fights, the meltdowns, the tweets, and the autograph scandal; it’s a humble reminder that these athletes are just kids. The compensation issue has to be resolved. I’m tired of the old argument that they’re getting a full ride scholarship and should be happy with just that. The money involved in college football is mind boggling. ESPN has reportedly paid 7.3 billion dollars just for the TV rights for the new playoff system. Everyone is profiting off of these kids, except for the kids themselves (well, allegedly, at least). Much like campaign finance reform, I don’t care about all of the details, but I just want something that is 100% transparent. If Nike is gonna pay the kids from Oregon a little extra cash for signing up, I wanna know about it. Put a system in place where the kids can get a miniscule slice of the pie that they’re brining to their schools. But make it above board and accountable. Rant over.
5. Conference predictions: In the Big East…errrrr….. American Athletic Conference, I’ve got Louisville running away with it, though Cincy is gonna surprise some folks in Tuberville’s first year with the Bearcats. The ACC’s gonna come down to Florida State and Clemson, and I’m giving the nod to Clemson. The Big 10 is going to be all about Ohio State in the Leaders Division and a race between Michigan, Nebraska, and Northwestern in the Legends Division (and thank God this is the last year of those two stupid division names). In the Big 12 I like Oklahoma State – though Texas returns 19 starters. The PAC-12 is all about Oregon and Stanford in the North and UCLA and ASU in the South (nod to Oregon). The SEC is going to be Alabama in West and South Carolina in the East. Oh, and the schedule maker at Ole Miss should be out of a job – other than the home game against Southeastern Missouri State on September 7th, their schedule looks like this to open the season: @ Vandy, @ Texas, @ Alabama, @ Auburn. They’re not home again until October 12th and 19th, and then they get A&M and LSU. Scheduling – you’re doing it wrong…
6. Here’s my BCS Bowl Predictions - Rose Bowl: Michigan v. Stanford; Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State v. Boise State; Sugar Bowl: South Carolina v. Texas; Orange Bowl: Clemson v. Louisville; and BCS Championship: Oregon v. Ohio State
7. And lastly, after this season, we say goodbye to the BCS. In the end, it did what it was supposed to do – pit the #1 versus #2 teams for the last game of the year. Of course there have been conspiracies and controversies, but in short, don’t lose to Iowa State, Stanford, or Baylor (looking at you Oklahoma State, Oregon, and Kansas State), and then you won’t have any reason to complain. The plus-1 system isn’t perfect, but get used to it. We’re stuck with it until at least 2025. I can’t wait until the top four teams in the polls aren’t the teams selected to the four team playoff by the secret committee. Let the complaining begin!
Games of the Week
Week 1: Georgia @ Clemson – Sorry Alabama and Virginia Tech (well, mostly Va. Tech), Georgia @ Clemson has all sorts of national implications; especially for an early non-conference game. We all know Clemson appears to be overhyped every year, and I want Georgia to win (just because I have this fantasy about both Georgia and Florida being undefeated for the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party). Alternate game: LSU v. TCU – tough opener for Miles and Co. as TCU tries to show A&M they’re the best team in Texas.
Week 2: South Carolina @ Georgia – For those that want a playoff, remember that college football is basically 15 weeks of playoffs. Thankfully for Georgia it’s not single elimination. Can the SEC East really be decided in week 2? Alternate game: Notre Dame @ Michigan – the last in this series (at least for the time being) at the Big House. The last three between these rivals have been chaos – Michigan blowing a 21-7 lead in 2010 only to score in the final minute to win it; Notre Dame blowing 24-7 4th quarter lead, ending with three lead changes in the final two minutes in 2011; and of course the ugliness of the 2012 game in which we realized that Notre Dame’s defense was legit. I’ll miss this series; good thing there’s one more in 2014 @ Notre Dame. Anton and I need to grab a Ted’s hot dog and find a TV, just like we did in ’94.
Week 3: Alabama @ Texas A&M – Off season distractions at A&M and a coaching staff at ‘Bama that’s been scheming for this one since last year. Saban smells blood in the water, but this one’s at College Station.
Week 4: Michigan State @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame’s defense may need to score at least twice for the Irish to have shot in this one.
Week 5: LSU @ Georgia – Where will Georgia be after a brutal schedule to open the season? Will LSU have their offense figured out?
Week 6: Arizona State v. Notre Dame – If you think ND has talent on the defensive line, here’s a chance for the country to finally see Will Sutton; he’s likely gonna be the first defensive tackle selected in the next NFL draft.
Week 7: Florida @ LSU – Just your run of the mill top-10 midseason matchup in the SEC. Alternate game: Oklahoma v. Texas – Red River Rivalry? Is it really a rivalry if Oklahoma keeps winning by six TDs every year?
Week 8: Florida State @ Clemson – Winner controls the ACC and still has an outside shot at the BCS Championship.
Week 9: Tennessee @ Alabama – Just for you Greg and Geno.
Week 10: Georgia v. Florida – One of these years the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is gonna be between two undefeated teams. Sadly, I don’t think this is the year.
Week 11: Oregon @ Stanford (Thursday) – In 2011, Oregon spoiled Stanford’s bid for a National Championship, in 2012, Stanford returned the favor – both of those were road games for the winner; can Oregon do it again? Alternate Game: LSU @ Alabama – the last three (not counting the National Championship blowout) in this series have been decided by 10 points total and similar to Oregon/Stanford, the road team has won the last two. I’d be happy if these two games were National Championship semi-finals.
Week 12: Florida @ South Carolina – Winner claims the SEC East (unless Georgia is still relevant after their brutal early season schedule)
Week 13: Texas A&M @ LSU – Could have some relevance in the SEC West, but also in the race for the Championship.
Week 14: Notre Dame @ Stanford – I wanna see Stanford have a first goal at the three with a chance to win, cuz I know Shaw will still call four straight running plays. The battle in the trenches will be fun to watch. The rest of Notre Dame’s offense, not so much.
Week 15: Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State – Bedlam. Could decide the winner of the Big 12. O/U on “Belldozer” references by Mussberger: 12.5.
The Pre-Season Top-10
#1 Oregon (0-0) – What’s not to love (well other than the uniforms – several of which the NCAA made illegal for this year)? Speed, scoring, improved defense, and seamless transitions from Bellotti to Kelly to Helfrich over the last five years. Hard to believe Mariota is a redshirt sophomore and De’Anthony Thomas is a junior.
#2 Ohio State (0-0) – A Heisman trophy contender at QB, a coach who has won a National Championship in his second year in the past, actually eligible for a bowl this year, and playing in the crappy Big 10? Uh oh. Looks like Ohio State will play in its record 10th BCS bowl game, and it’ll probably the Championship game.
#3 South Carolina (0-0) – If you can take care of business in week 2 @ Georgia, you shouldn’t see a challenge until deep into November when you get both Florida and Clemson at home.
#4 Stanford (0-0) – Everyone thought Stanford was done when Luck and Harbaugh left two and three years ago. Everyone was wrong.
#5 Alabama (0-0) – One of the easiest schedules out there; with only two preseason top-25 teams on the schedule (A&M and LSU), and you get both of them after a bye week. The scheduling gods smiled on Alabama this year. The defense will be good as ever, but will McCarron have any protection?
#6 Louisville (0-0) – Even though your conference sucks, you’re a legit team that returns 16 starters. Just ask Florida how good you are.
#7 Georgia (0-0) – Clemson, South Carolina, and LSU as three of your first four opponents? I really feel sorry for North Texas when you play them on September 21st. If you win all three of those against top-12 teams, the dude who voted you #1 in the AP preseason poll may be on to something.
#8 Oklahoma State (0-0) – Favorites in the Big 12. The Big 12 ain’t great this year, but it’s deep. Should be interesting to see what Oklahoma, Texas, and TCU have to say about this.
#9 Clemson (0-0) – It seems like every year we get the “this is Clemson’s year.” And every year they choke it away. Is this finally the year?
#10 Florida (0-0) – You looked really bad against Louisville in the Sugar Bowl as a two TD favorite. But, don’t sleep on the Gators going into this season.
Heisman Watch:
Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina – Yes, no defensive player has won the Heisman since 1997, although Manti T’eo was good for the imagination last year; wait, what? They’re talking that this is the deepest QB crew since the famous ’82 class, and that’s got the making of splitting the vote. If Clowney matches (or exceeds) what he did last year, and South Carolina lives up to the hype, he’ll be the winner.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – A fitting end to the BCS would be to not have an SEC win it; let alone be in the game. With some top teams having a relatively easy schedule, we could wind up with 3-4 undefeated teams, which won’t bode well for a one-loss SEC school. Oregon finally gets a break and brings the title to Eugene.
Week 1 Big Games:
Alabama v. Virginia Tech – Alabama comes in as a huge favorite against Virginia Tech. Tech is a really young team attempting to develop a new offense. That won’t bode well against the veteran Alabama defense, led by All Universe linebacker C.J. Mosely. More of the same. Alabama scores on their first possession, and the defense carries them the rest of the way. Alabama 31 Virginia Tech 10.
TCU v. LSU – Two solid defenses will steal the show here with two offenses that struggled a year ago. I said earlier that the Big 12 isn’t great this year, but boy how that would change in an instant if TCU can pull the upset on a sorta neutral field in Texas. TCU will keep it close, but LSU will pull it out with a late FG: 20 to 17.
Week 1 Game of the Week:
Georgia @ Clemson – Why do we need a playoff system when you have a week 1 matchup like this? Expectations are at record highs for both Georgia and Clemson, with both hoping to be in the National Championship picture at the end of the year. Georgia returns nine on offense, the same offense that put up 28 on Alabama in the SEC Championship last year. Clemson was sixth best in the nation last year in points, putting up ~41/game. Both defenses are young. There’s gonna be some fireworks in this one! I like Georgia 45 to 31.
Until next time…
So, with only two days to go until the 2013-2014 kick-off, the Autumn Wind is back for its 7th season. In this preseason edition, I’ll list my top things to watch for this year; I’ll offer up my games of the week; and my pre-season Top-10, why they’ll win it, and why they won’t. Of course BCS title and Heisman trophy predictions will follow, and in typical Wind fashion, will change weekly until I get it right. For year 7 of the Autumn Wind, let’s look at the top 7 things to watch for this season.
1. All the talk of the off-season (well, not involving fake girlfriends and autographs, at least) has been if Alabama can three-peat. I don’t think so, and here are six reasons why: 1) Let’s not forget Alabama needed help the last two years to even get to the title game. Sure, once in the title game they’ve been dominant, but they were on the outside looking in going into the final weeks of the season each of the last two years. 2) Huge losses on both the offensive and defensive lines; you don’t just replace three All-American’s off the offensive line. You see it quite a bit in college football – you need to be superior on both lines to compete for the title. 3) There’s a sense of complacency in Tuscaloosa; it’s just expected that Alabama is gonna win it all. That spells trouble, especially when…4) There could be three (or more) teams (Ohio State, Oregon, Louisville) that finish undefeated and I don’t think one of those will be from the SEC; a one-loss SEC team isn’t going to the title this year. 5) Even if Alabama gets to the SEC Championship, I’m not sure they get by South Carolina; or Florida; or Georgia. And finally, 6) it’s extremely tough (i.e. unpossible) to win three in a row and four outta five in college football. So, this year is lining up to be the first in seven years without a SEC team winning the BCS. For all these reasons, I’m one of the few that doesn’t have Alabama #1. They’ll be in the discussion for sure; especially with a relatively easy schedule (only A&M and LSU are in the preseason Top-25; and both of those come after a bye week).
2. This is the year of the PAC-12; I’m calling it now. The winner of the November 7th Oregon @ Stanford game will finish undefeated and wind up in the BCS championship game. If you haven’t watched these teams play the last couple of years, you’re missing out. Oregon has finished in the top-5 the last three seasons (12 wins a year); been to four straight BCS games (something no other school can claim right now); they’re schedule is favorable with non-con games against Virginia and Tennessee; and they have a bye the weekend before the Thursday night game @ Stanford. Stanford’s been to three straight BCS games and has won 11+ games three years a row for the first time in school history. They’re big on both lines, and their defense that led the nation in sacks per game returns nine starters. Their only weakness is at running back (seriously, how do you replace the school’s all-time leading rusher), but their running-back-by-committee will work – especially when they have Barry Sanders Jr. starting to get some time. There is a trap game on the schedule though, @ Oregon State sandwiched in between the games against UCLA and Oregon; which is why I like Oregon to win the PAC-12 and go to the BCS Championship.
3. Brian Kelly said before the BCS Championship last year that Notre Dame was “a year away” – almost a prophet-like prediction that the Tide were gonna roll the Irish. Even after losing T’eo, the defense is stacked with Louis Nix and Stephon Tuitt upfront, three returning linebackers including Prince Shembo, and three returners in the secondary. The problem is their offense. They lost their top two running backs and their best tight end, and of course don’t have their planned QB-of-the-future who was booted for academic reasons; or something. Last year, seven of their wins came in games where they scored 22 or fewer points. With key losses at QB, RB, and TE, the defense is gonna have to be as good, or better, than last year to keep the Irish in games. And they’ve a brutal four game stretch with Michigan State, Oklahoma, Arizona State, and USC. Not to mention road games against Michigan and Stanford early and late in the year. 9-3 would be an incredible success, but I’m guessing it’ll be closer to 7-5 (then again, I predicted 6-6 last year).
4. The off season drama revolving around Johnny Manziel has been tough to watch. Between the bar fights, the meltdowns, the tweets, and the autograph scandal; it’s a humble reminder that these athletes are just kids. The compensation issue has to be resolved. I’m tired of the old argument that they’re getting a full ride scholarship and should be happy with just that. The money involved in college football is mind boggling. ESPN has reportedly paid 7.3 billion dollars just for the TV rights for the new playoff system. Everyone is profiting off of these kids, except for the kids themselves (well, allegedly, at least). Much like campaign finance reform, I don’t care about all of the details, but I just want something that is 100% transparent. If Nike is gonna pay the kids from Oregon a little extra cash for signing up, I wanna know about it. Put a system in place where the kids can get a miniscule slice of the pie that they’re brining to their schools. But make it above board and accountable. Rant over.
5. Conference predictions: In the Big East…errrrr….. American Athletic Conference, I’ve got Louisville running away with it, though Cincy is gonna surprise some folks in Tuberville’s first year with the Bearcats. The ACC’s gonna come down to Florida State and Clemson, and I’m giving the nod to Clemson. The Big 10 is going to be all about Ohio State in the Leaders Division and a race between Michigan, Nebraska, and Northwestern in the Legends Division (and thank God this is the last year of those two stupid division names). In the Big 12 I like Oklahoma State – though Texas returns 19 starters. The PAC-12 is all about Oregon and Stanford in the North and UCLA and ASU in the South (nod to Oregon). The SEC is going to be Alabama in West and South Carolina in the East. Oh, and the schedule maker at Ole Miss should be out of a job – other than the home game against Southeastern Missouri State on September 7th, their schedule looks like this to open the season: @ Vandy, @ Texas, @ Alabama, @ Auburn. They’re not home again until October 12th and 19th, and then they get A&M and LSU. Scheduling – you’re doing it wrong…
6. Here’s my BCS Bowl Predictions - Rose Bowl: Michigan v. Stanford; Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State v. Boise State; Sugar Bowl: South Carolina v. Texas; Orange Bowl: Clemson v. Louisville; and BCS Championship: Oregon v. Ohio State
7. And lastly, after this season, we say goodbye to the BCS. In the end, it did what it was supposed to do – pit the #1 versus #2 teams for the last game of the year. Of course there have been conspiracies and controversies, but in short, don’t lose to Iowa State, Stanford, or Baylor (looking at you Oklahoma State, Oregon, and Kansas State), and then you won’t have any reason to complain. The plus-1 system isn’t perfect, but get used to it. We’re stuck with it until at least 2025. I can’t wait until the top four teams in the polls aren’t the teams selected to the four team playoff by the secret committee. Let the complaining begin!
Games of the Week
Week 1: Georgia @ Clemson – Sorry Alabama and Virginia Tech (well, mostly Va. Tech), Georgia @ Clemson has all sorts of national implications; especially for an early non-conference game. We all know Clemson appears to be overhyped every year, and I want Georgia to win (just because I have this fantasy about both Georgia and Florida being undefeated for the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party). Alternate game: LSU v. TCU – tough opener for Miles and Co. as TCU tries to show A&M they’re the best team in Texas.
Week 2: South Carolina @ Georgia – For those that want a playoff, remember that college football is basically 15 weeks of playoffs. Thankfully for Georgia it’s not single elimination. Can the SEC East really be decided in week 2? Alternate game: Notre Dame @ Michigan – the last in this series (at least for the time being) at the Big House. The last three between these rivals have been chaos – Michigan blowing a 21-7 lead in 2010 only to score in the final minute to win it; Notre Dame blowing 24-7 4th quarter lead, ending with three lead changes in the final two minutes in 2011; and of course the ugliness of the 2012 game in which we realized that Notre Dame’s defense was legit. I’ll miss this series; good thing there’s one more in 2014 @ Notre Dame. Anton and I need to grab a Ted’s hot dog and find a TV, just like we did in ’94.
Week 3: Alabama @ Texas A&M – Off season distractions at A&M and a coaching staff at ‘Bama that’s been scheming for this one since last year. Saban smells blood in the water, but this one’s at College Station.
Week 4: Michigan State @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame’s defense may need to score at least twice for the Irish to have shot in this one.
Week 5: LSU @ Georgia – Where will Georgia be after a brutal schedule to open the season? Will LSU have their offense figured out?
Week 6: Arizona State v. Notre Dame – If you think ND has talent on the defensive line, here’s a chance for the country to finally see Will Sutton; he’s likely gonna be the first defensive tackle selected in the next NFL draft.
Week 7: Florida @ LSU – Just your run of the mill top-10 midseason matchup in the SEC. Alternate game: Oklahoma v. Texas – Red River Rivalry? Is it really a rivalry if Oklahoma keeps winning by six TDs every year?
Week 8: Florida State @ Clemson – Winner controls the ACC and still has an outside shot at the BCS Championship.
Week 9: Tennessee @ Alabama – Just for you Greg and Geno.
Week 10: Georgia v. Florida – One of these years the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is gonna be between two undefeated teams. Sadly, I don’t think this is the year.
Week 11: Oregon @ Stanford (Thursday) – In 2011, Oregon spoiled Stanford’s bid for a National Championship, in 2012, Stanford returned the favor – both of those were road games for the winner; can Oregon do it again? Alternate Game: LSU @ Alabama – the last three (not counting the National Championship blowout) in this series have been decided by 10 points total and similar to Oregon/Stanford, the road team has won the last two. I’d be happy if these two games were National Championship semi-finals.
Week 12: Florida @ South Carolina – Winner claims the SEC East (unless Georgia is still relevant after their brutal early season schedule)
Week 13: Texas A&M @ LSU – Could have some relevance in the SEC West, but also in the race for the Championship.
Week 14: Notre Dame @ Stanford – I wanna see Stanford have a first goal at the three with a chance to win, cuz I know Shaw will still call four straight running plays. The battle in the trenches will be fun to watch. The rest of Notre Dame’s offense, not so much.
Week 15: Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State – Bedlam. Could decide the winner of the Big 12. O/U on “Belldozer” references by Mussberger: 12.5.
The Pre-Season Top-10
#1 Oregon (0-0) – What’s not to love (well other than the uniforms – several of which the NCAA made illegal for this year)? Speed, scoring, improved defense, and seamless transitions from Bellotti to Kelly to Helfrich over the last five years. Hard to believe Mariota is a redshirt sophomore and De’Anthony Thomas is a junior.
#2 Ohio State (0-0) – A Heisman trophy contender at QB, a coach who has won a National Championship in his second year in the past, actually eligible for a bowl this year, and playing in the crappy Big 10? Uh oh. Looks like Ohio State will play in its record 10th BCS bowl game, and it’ll probably the Championship game.
#3 South Carolina (0-0) – If you can take care of business in week 2 @ Georgia, you shouldn’t see a challenge until deep into November when you get both Florida and Clemson at home.
#4 Stanford (0-0) – Everyone thought Stanford was done when Luck and Harbaugh left two and three years ago. Everyone was wrong.
#5 Alabama (0-0) – One of the easiest schedules out there; with only two preseason top-25 teams on the schedule (A&M and LSU), and you get both of them after a bye week. The scheduling gods smiled on Alabama this year. The defense will be good as ever, but will McCarron have any protection?
#6 Louisville (0-0) – Even though your conference sucks, you’re a legit team that returns 16 starters. Just ask Florida how good you are.
#7 Georgia (0-0) – Clemson, South Carolina, and LSU as three of your first four opponents? I really feel sorry for North Texas when you play them on September 21st. If you win all three of those against top-12 teams, the dude who voted you #1 in the AP preseason poll may be on to something.
#8 Oklahoma State (0-0) – Favorites in the Big 12. The Big 12 ain’t great this year, but it’s deep. Should be interesting to see what Oklahoma, Texas, and TCU have to say about this.
#9 Clemson (0-0) – It seems like every year we get the “this is Clemson’s year.” And every year they choke it away. Is this finally the year?
#10 Florida (0-0) – You looked really bad against Louisville in the Sugar Bowl as a two TD favorite. But, don’t sleep on the Gators going into this season.
Heisman Watch:
Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina – Yes, no defensive player has won the Heisman since 1997, although Manti T’eo was good for the imagination last year; wait, what? They’re talking that this is the deepest QB crew since the famous ’82 class, and that’s got the making of splitting the vote. If Clowney matches (or exceeds) what he did last year, and South Carolina lives up to the hype, he’ll be the winner.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – A fitting end to the BCS would be to not have an SEC win it; let alone be in the game. With some top teams having a relatively easy schedule, we could wind up with 3-4 undefeated teams, which won’t bode well for a one-loss SEC school. Oregon finally gets a break and brings the title to Eugene.
Week 1 Big Games:
Alabama v. Virginia Tech – Alabama comes in as a huge favorite against Virginia Tech. Tech is a really young team attempting to develop a new offense. That won’t bode well against the veteran Alabama defense, led by All Universe linebacker C.J. Mosely. More of the same. Alabama scores on their first possession, and the defense carries them the rest of the way. Alabama 31 Virginia Tech 10.
TCU v. LSU – Two solid defenses will steal the show here with two offenses that struggled a year ago. I said earlier that the Big 12 isn’t great this year, but boy how that would change in an instant if TCU can pull the upset on a sorta neutral field in Texas. TCU will keep it close, but LSU will pull it out with a late FG: 20 to 17.
Week 1 Game of the Week:
Georgia @ Clemson – Why do we need a playoff system when you have a week 1 matchup like this? Expectations are at record highs for both Georgia and Clemson, with both hoping to be in the National Championship picture at the end of the year. Georgia returns nine on offense, the same offense that put up 28 on Alabama in the SEC Championship last year. Clemson was sixth best in the nation last year in points, putting up ~41/game. Both defenses are young. There’s gonna be some fireworks in this one! I like Georgia 45 to 31.
Until next time…
Friday, December 28, 2012
Bowl Preview - Part II
And here’s part duex of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview Edition! Enjoy! As of press time (half time of the Virginia Tech and Rutgers game), I’m 10-2 against the spread and 9-3 on the over/under. That’s some prognostication right there!
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPN
Northwestern v. Mississippi State
The first bowl game of 2013, and it matches up teams from the Big 10 and SEC, which never seems to go well for the Big 10. And even more so since Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1949 and Mississippi State has won five straight bowl games. But, Mississippi ended on quite the skid, losing four outta five (granted, in the heat of the SEC schedule). And where’s their quality win? Auburn, Arkansas, Tennessee?? Okay, SEC folks – not everyone in your conference is the ’85 Bears. North western’s three losses were all close games to quality teams (Penn State, Nebraska, and Michigan). Can’t believe it, but I like the Big 10 over the SEC in this one.
Gambling angle: As usual, the trend is for underdogs to cover here, and I like Mississippi State +2, and the under 51.5.
Heart of Dallas Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPNU
Oklahoma State v. Purdue
This used to be the Ticket City Bowl, but after only two years it’s now the Heart of Dallas Bowl. If you’re Purdue, it’s never a good thing to have needed a win against Indiana the last game of the year to become bowl eligible, and then immediately firing your coach. And if you’re Oklahoma State, it hasn’t been good to play away from home (they’re only road win was against what should be Division III Kansas). And finally, if you’re expecting this to be a quality New Year’s Day game, you’ll be disappointed; though it’ll likely wind up in a shootout as both defenses have struggled.
Gambling angle: No strong trends here for such a young bowl game, but even at -16.5, I like Oklahoma State. And let’s look to the over 70 as both teams give up ~30/game.
Outback Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ESPN
South Carolina v. Michigan
The Outback Bowl is turning into one of my favorite bowls of the year. It always matches up Big 10 versus SEC teams. But top tier teams from each conference, not the stragglers that the Gator Bowl and others get. And, usually on paper the SEC team is supposed to be the dominant team. But looking back 20 years, the SEC is only 11-9 against the Big 10 here. And remember Michigan State’s shocking upset of Georgia last year? Oh, who am I kidding. Maybe in a normal year the Big 10 would have a chance here, but Michigan’s only in this game because half of the Big 10 isn’t bowl eligible. South Carolina runs all over the Wolverines.
Gambling angle: The Big-10 has covered seven of the last ten Outback bowl, but I’m bucking the trend here and taking South Carolina -5 and the under 48.
Capital One Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ABC
Georgia v. Nebraska
Another good Big 10/SEC match up here, but I don’t think I’ll like the results. Georgia nearly won the SEC Championship Game and Nebraska got bombed back to the stone age by Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship Game. Nebraska’s three losses were all away from Lincoln and two of those Husker fans are still trying to forget about (@ Ohio State and against Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship Game). Georgia beat Florida on a neutral field and nearly beat Alabama on a neutral field a few weeks later. And let’s not forget what South Carolina did to Nebraska in this very game last year. This may be it for Pelini.
Gambling angle: I hate to give up this many points, but let’s take Georgia -10. Five of the last seven have played under, and that seems appropriate with these defenses, so I like the under 57.
Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO – Jan. 1, 5:00pm EST ESPN
Stanford v. Wisconsin
Wisconsin’s back in the Rose Bowl for the third straight year (after losses the last two years to TCU and Oregon), but don’t fret over those five loses from the Badgers. All were close games and three of the losses were in O.T. And they’ve Barry Alvarez back as head coach, who is 3-0 in Pasadena. But, let’s take a look at Stanford. Their two losses were really close games as well, and they’ve reeled off five straight wins against five straight opponents. Wisconsin is too one dimensional. When they’re running downhill they’re unstoppable. But Stanford is about as physical a team you’ll find this year. Wisconsin loses yet another Rose Bowl.
Gambling angle: Favorites tend to do well in Pasadena, and I like Stanford -6.5, and the over 47, but just barely.
Discover Orange Bowl – Jan. 1, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Florida State v. Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois busted the BCS this year, and they’ve got some firepower on offense (40+/game). FSU brings one of the best defenses in the country to the Orange Bowl, but the difference here is this. Northern Illinois hasn’t played anyone. Well except for Iowa back on September 1st, and they lost that on 17-16. Florida State should, and will, blow them out. Or will they? Florida State looked bad against North Carolina State and Florida, and not great against Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship; or against Virginia Tech, South Florida, and Clemson. Hmmmmm. And remember what these little giants have done to the Big Boys in BCS Games? I like Northern Illinois to keep this one close, and if it’s close in the 4th quarter, anything can happen. Just ask Bob Stoops if he’d ever want to play Boise State again.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 7-2 against the spread and the under has hit seven out of ten, and with good reason. Some overvalued BCS teams against some undervalued opponents. Let’s take NIU +13.5 and the over 58 as their only chance is to get into a shootout with the Seminoles.
Allstate Sugar Bowl – Jan. 2, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Florida v. Louisville
Two years in a row and we’ve a dud of a Sugar Bowl. Louisville doesn’t belong here and Florida has a case to make that they deserve to be #2. That’s got the making of an ugly game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Florida’s defense scores more points than Louisville’s offense.
Gambling angle: Let’s take Florida -13.5 and the under 45, in a truly ugly game.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl – Jan. 3, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Oregon v. Kansas State
Let’s call this the National Championship that could’a been. Both teams controlled their own destiny but stumbled down the stretch. And both teams are victims of the “we’re not in the SEC.” Until the SEC loses the title, that’s sadly, not gonna change. Still, the Fiesta Bowl is in my Top-3 games to watch this bowl season. Both teams are pretty solid all around, but it’s both teams offenses that make the headlines. Kansas State will be able to slow down the Ducks in a way similar to what Stanford did, but I’m not sure they can hold them to 14, especially seeing how Texas Tech, Baylor, and Texas moved the ball at will against Kansas State late in the year. And, the Ducks defense is underrated this year, for a change. This will be another exciting Fiesta Bowl (if we can block out the memory of the UConn-Oklahoma snooze fest a couple years ago). Oregon in a shoot out!
Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered four of the last five Fiesta Bowls, but I can’t see Kansas State keeping up with Oregon for 48 minutes the way Stanford did. Let’s take Oregon -9 and the over 75.
AT&T Cotton Bowl – Jan. 4, 8:00pm EST FOX
Texas A&M v. Oklahoma
Once again the Cotton Bowl is played after the Orange and Sugar bowls this year, which is fitting as this is more of a BCS style match-up. Old Big 12 foes are at it, as Texas A&M surprised everyone in the SEC this year by beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa and bringing home the Heisman. Both teams average 40+ points/game and 500+ yards/game, so we know there’s gonna be a bunch of points, but as usual, I’ve gotta take the SEC over the Big-12, and A&M finishes their magical season with a win over their old rival.
Gambling angle: The SEC is 8-1 straight up over the Big-12 in this game. That will continue, and I like A&M -4.5; and the over has hit the last two here so I gotta take the over 71.5 with these two offenses.
BBVA Compass Bowl – Jan. 5, 1:00pm EST ESPN
Ole Miss v. Pitt
After 32 games we get Pittsburg
Gambling angle: Let’s take Ole Miss -3.5 and the under 52 (again, only because I’m picking lines and O/U’s on every game).
GoDaddy.com Bowl – Jan. 6, 9:00pm EST ESPN
Kent State v. Arkansas State
So we’ve seen the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl, and Sugar Bowl – so it must be time for the National Championship, right? Nope. The bowl formally known as the GMAC bowl is played on January 6th this year, and is one of three bowl games between the traditional big four and the championship. And, believe it or not, I’m actually okay with this. If we’re not going to have a playoff, but all means – let’s have games between Kent State and Arkansas State. At least we get a match-up of conference champions in this one; albeit the MAC and the Sunbelt. Arkansas State gets revenge against the MAC Champion this year.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 8-1-1 against the spread in this game, so let’s look to Arkansas State -4.5 and the over 62.
Discover BCS National Championship – Jan. 7, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Notre Dame v. Alabama
Two of the most storied traditions in college football history meet in the Championship. But they both got here on different paths. Alabama’s won two out of the last three Championships and were #1 in my preseason poll. Notre Dame hasn’t been relevant in nearly two years and wasn’t ranked at all in anyone’s polls. The Irish got here with defense, and luck. Alabama got here because the computers continue to have a soft spot for one-loss SEC teams; and why not? The SEC continues to dominate in this game. Notre Dame could easily get blown out in this game, but there were also a handful of games this year when that could’ve, and should’ve, happened. But it didn’t. The front seven of Notre Dame is unlike anything Alabama has faced this year. They keep Notre Dame in games, make plays, switch field position, and just don’t break, even when the Irish offense screws up and gives the opponent a short field. But, Saban is the best in the game at developing a game plan and preparing players. They’re only two losses the last two years were when the missed a bunch of FGs against LSU two years ago and when they got Manzieled (yes that’s a word) and fell down three TDs to A&M in the first quarter this year (and they could’ve easily won both those games). Notre Dame could’ve easily lost to Purdue, Stanford, Pitt, etc. I said it to Uncle Gene right when the match up was announced, and I’m sticking with it. Alabama 24 Notre Dame 13
Gambling angle: The SEC is 6-0 straight up and against the spread here, so gotta stick with that. Alabama -9.5 and the under 42.
Well, that’s it for 2012’s college football season! From all of the editors, statisticians, researchers, and other contributors at the Autumn Wind (oh wait – it’s just me): Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Until next time year….
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Bowl Preview - Part I
Here’s Part I of the 6th annual edition of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview. I’ll break ‘em all down: 35 bowls, 70 teams, starting December 15th and ending January 7th, including some very intriguing match-ups in non-BCS bowls. Here’s the games, dates, times, TV coverage, and angles (for entertainment purposes only) up to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on December 31st. I’ll post the update for the real bowl games next week. Enjoy the last few weeks of the 2012-2013 college football season!
Gildan New Mexico Bowl – Dec. 15, 1:00pm EST ESPN
Arizona v. Nevada
A match-up of 7-5 teams start off the 2012-2013 bowl season, and on paper UofSuck has the advantage here. But, Nevada has a strong offense and UofSuck has had problems stopping people. Really no reason to watch this game unless 1) you’re bored, 2) you like seeing a half empty stadium in cold Albuquerque, or 3) you want to guess the over/under on how many times the announcers say that UofSuck has the leading rusher in the nation (the Autumn Wind puts that number at 8.5).
Gambling angle: This is the 7th New Mexico Bowl – and underdogs have not only covered, but won outright in four of the first six in this bowl series. In addition the over has hit in the last four. Let’s look for Nevada to cover the 9.5, perhaps winning outright, and even though the over is at 75, I think they’ll get there.
Famous Idaho
Utah State versus Toledo is another “yawn” game, right? In the words of Corso, not so fast!! Utah State had two loses (@ Wisconsin and @ BYU) by a total of five points. Toledo’s only loses were in O.T. to UofSuck, Ball State, and BCS bound Northern Illinois. These boys can play! Utah State lost a barn burning to Ohio last year in this same bowl, and I like for them to get their first bowl win in school history.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 4-2-1 against the spread the last seven here, and three of the past five played to the over; neither of which are strong trends. I like Utah State at -7.5, but let’s take the under 58.5 as Utah State brings the nation’s 8th best scoring defense.
San Diego State v. BYU
Old Mountain West rivals meet up again in this one, just one season after BYU bolted for some other conference, or independent status, or something. Other than the absurd name of this bowl, that’s about all the coverage I’m going to give it.
Gambling angle: The Mountain West has won the past six here, but last year TCU didn’t cover. Let’s look for that again, San Diego State wins, but doesn’t cover. BYU +2.5, down to the wire, and gotta take the under 49 as BYU has the 5th best scoring defense in the league.
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl – Dec 21, 7pm EST ESPN
Ball State v. UCF
If you don’t have anything better to do than watch this game, then go ahead and jump off of a cliff.
Gambling angle: This is the 5th Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, somehow it still keeps going. UCF should cover the -7, and I would think the under 61.5 is the play here, not that anyone will be watching.
R+L Carriers New Orleans
All you need to know about this one is that both teams love to throw it around and both teams suck at preventing the other team from doing that. Louisiana Lafayette should come out on top though – yes, Louisana-Lafayette, as in the team that nearly beat Florida, not the other 8-4 Louisiana- team that beat Arkansas and nearly beat Auburn. Keep your Louisiana “dash” teams separate please.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 5-2 in the past seven and five of the the past six have played over the total. Gotta buck the trend here though and take LA-LF -5.5 and gotta love the over at 67.
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl – Dec. 22, 3:30pm EST ESPN
Washington beat Stanford and Oregon State, and kept it close against Oregon (at least in the first half and USC. But, they also got blown out by LSU, UofSuck, and lost to horrible Washington State. Boise’s quietly 10-2 with their only loses against Michigan State in the opener, and San Diego State late. Boise’s defense will keep them in this game, and they don’t fall into the Vegas trap like so many other teams heading to Viva Las Vegas for this bowl.
Gambling angle: I like Boise -5.5; and with ten of the last 14 Vegas Bowl’s hitting the under (forget about Boise nearly hitting the over themselves last year), I like the under 46 as both offenses will struggle to score against some pretty good defenses.
Sheraton Hawaii
Southern Methodist v. Fresno State
As usual, tons of offense in the Hawaii Bowl, with both teams scoring over 30-40 a game, mostly through the air. Fresno State was a quiet 9-3, and SMU needed a win against Tulsa in the finale to become bowl eligible. Fresno State should win this one going away.
Gambling angle: Underdogs have won, and covered, three of the past four here (but that’s often when Hawaii’s been the “home” underdog), and seven of the last 10 have played over. I like SMU +11.5 and the over 59.5
Little Caesars Bowl – Dec. 26, 7:30pm EST ESPN
Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky
I like Little Caesars Pizza. That’s about all I’ll say about this game.
Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered four outta five and under total is 8-5 in last 13 Motor City…errrrr, Little Caesars Bowls. Central Michigan +5.5 and the under 58.5, I guess.
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman – Dec. 27 3:00pm EST ESPN
San Jose State v. Bowling Green
Nothing says Military Bowl like San Jose State and Bowling Green. San Jose State won 10 games, only losing to Stanford and Utah State. Bowling Green’s signature win was against Rhode Island, or Massachusetts. Seriously, what the hell are they doing in a bowl game?
Gambling angle: All four is this bowl’s history have played to the over; so I like the San Jose State -7.5 and the over 47.
Belk Bowl – Dec. 27, 6:30pm EST ESPN
Duke v. Cincinnati
The Belk Bowl should be changed this year to the “we’re used to underperforming in the post season” bowl – oh wait, we’re talking football here, not basketball. Cincy has won a share of the Big East for four straight seasons while Duke’s in a bowl game for the first time since 1994. Wait a minute. Cincy loses a tie breaker that would’ve sent them to a BCS game as Big East champ and instead they’re playing Duke in the Belk Bowl? That’s what’s wrong with college football, folks.
Gambling angle: Let’s take Cincy -7.5 and the under 58.5 (if you haven’t figured it out by now, this gambling “advice” is truly for entertainment purposes. Anyone who bets on this game needs to call 1-800-522-4700 immediately.
Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl – Dec. 28, 9:45pm EST ESPN
UCLA v. Baylor
Finally a bowl game with teams people have actually heard of. UCLA heads down the road to San Diego after losing back-to-backs to Stanford. Baylor’s 5th in the nation in scoring offense but 117th in scoring defense. Let’s get out the popcorn and have some fun!
Gambling angle: Interesting angle’s here: the PAC-10 doesn’t win (3-8 straight up), and favorites cover (11-3). Same story. I’ll take Baylor -1 and the over 74 as Baylor just can’t stop anyone.
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – Dec. 28, 2:00pm EST ESPN
Louisiana-Monroe v. Ohio
Everyone knows Lousiana-Monroe as the team that shocked Arkansas and then nearly beat Auburn and Baylor. Ohio is known as the team that beat Penn State in the opener and started off 7-0, but lost four out of their last five. That’s about all I care to say about this game as well. Louisiana-Monroe wins in their first ever bowl appearance.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 7-2 against the spread and the last three of the last four here played under. Let’s take Louisiana-Monroe -7 and the under 60, as both teams struggled down the stretch.
Russell Athletic Bowl – Dec. 28, 5:30pm ESPN
Virginia Tech v. Rutgers
Formerly the Champs Sports Bowl, it pits Rutgers (who started 9-1 and had a shot at a BCS bowl) against a Virginia Tech team that failed to win 10 games for the first time in nine years. Virginia Tech had all sorts of troubles scoring this year, and their usually reliable special teams were not very good either. And, Rutgers is a very good defensive team, only giving up about 14/game. The ACC has also struggled in this game against the Big East. The Scarlet Knights get the victory.
Gambling angle: The ACC is only 2-7 straight up in this game, and the under is 6-1 the past seven. I really like Rutgers +2.5 and the under 41.5.
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
Texas Tech v. Minnesota
The old Texas Bowl is now the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas. The Big 10 is so bad that Minnesota with a 2-6 conference record gets to travel to Texas to take on Tech in a pretty much home game. Tech will throw the ball all over the field and Minnesota can’t. Tech will score a lot, and Minnesota won’t. Pretty easy pick here for Texas Tech.
Gambling angle: I like Texas Tech -13, as favorites are 7-2-2 against the spread in this bowl; and I like the over 57 as well as three of the past five played over, and Minnesota will struggle to contain Tech’s offense but still be able to put up some points on Tech’s defense.
Air Force v. Rice
This is why I struggle with many of these bowl games. Rice started off 2-6 and is bowling. Air Force lost to Army and Navy, among others, but still almost beat Michigan in the Big House. I’ll watch this one because I like the Armed Forces TV commercials, and I like watching the triple option, especially against a crappy team like Rice.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 6-2 against the spread in this one, but this one is essentially a pick ‘em. The over/under has alternated eight of the last nine years, with last year’s predicted over missing by 1.5 points. I’ll take Air Force -1, and let’s take the under 61.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Dec. 29, 3:15pm EST ESPN
Syracuse v. West Virginia
West Virginia had preseason aspirations for both a Heisman trophy and a National Championship. But they needed a win late to become bowl eligible. Why? 116th in the nation in scoring defense says a lot. Folks are giving Syracuse a chance in this game, but keep in mind they lost to Minnesota and only beat Stony Brook by 11. Sure they beat Louisville, but everyone knows Louisville was overrated. West Virginia wins, and wins big.
Gambling angle: I’ll take West Virginia -4 and the over 73.5 (West Virginia may get that on their own).
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl – Dec. 29 4:00pm EST ESPN
Arizona State v. Navy
Navy started off 1-3, but finished 7-1, including wins over both Air Force and Army. ASU struggled in the middle of their PAC-12 schedule, losing four straight, but finished strong with wins over Washington State and UofSuck (the only one that matters). This one will be all about Navy’s rushing game against ASU’s run defense. Vegas likes the Sun Devils a lot, and so do I.
Gambling angle: Let’s look at ASU -14.5 (biggest spread of the bowl season) and the over 56.
Valero Alamo Bowl – Dec. 29, 6:45pm EST ESPN
Oregon State v. Texas
The Big 12 has owned the PAC-12 in recent history in this game which bodes well for Texas. Both teams stumbled down the stretch, but this one’s worth watching as it’s the first bowl game this year against ranked teams. Oregon State has the better resume, and Texas struggled down the stretch. Let’s go Beavers!
Gambling angle: Trends for both the spread and O/U are pretty even here, so I gotta go with my gut. Overall, the PAC-12 was better than the Big 12 this year, so I like Oregon State -2 and the under 56.5.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl – Dec. 29, 10:15pm EST ESPN
Michigan State v. TCU
The Insight Bowl is now the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. Michigan State is 10th in defense, but only 109th offense. That explains why they lost all their games (with the exception of Notre Dame) by one, three, two, four, and three, respectively. TCU did well in their first year in the Big 12, with wins over Baylor, West Virginia, and Texas; and close loses against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. A close game is gonna favor the Horned Frogs – gotta go with TCU.
Gambling angle: The over is 8-2 in this last ten here, and the Big-12 had won five straight of six v. Big-10. Gotta go with TCU -2.5 (as Michigan State always loses by a FG this year) and the over 41. Even though both defenses are strong, 41 is a low number, about as low as they get (in fact, it’s lower than the Alabama/ND O/U with is the matchup of the two best defenses in the game).
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Dec. 31, 12:00pm EST ESPN
Vanderbilt v. North Carolina State
I refuse to even acknowledge this game. Okay, the name of bowl is cool. That’s about it. (For those of you keeping track at home, I said the exact same thing about this game last year between
Gambling angle: I like Vandy -6.5 (favorites are 5-2-1 the last eight Music City bowls) and since eight of 11 have played under, I like the under 52.
Hyundai Sun Bowl – Dec. 31, 2:00pm EST CBS
Georgia Tech v. USC
Georgia Tech is back in the Sun Bowl again, but this time against a USC team that was the AP preseason #1 team (obviously the AP voters forget that Lame Kiffin can’t coach). Georgia Tech doesn’t even belong in this game, needing a waiver from the NCAA to get into a bowl game with a 6-7 record. They lost to Middle Tennessee by three TD’s for crying out loud.
Gambling angle: I’ll take USC -10 and the under 64.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Dec 31, 3:30pm EST ESPN
Tulsa v. Iowa State
September 1st – Tulsa v. Iowa State. December 31st – Tulsa v. Iowa State. At least this rematch isn’t a National Championship game. Iowa State won the first one, but Tulsa wins the rematch.
Gambling angle: The underdogs have covered seven out of eight here (doesn’t matter as this one’s a pick ‘em), and the under has hit nine out of the last 13. So, if I had to put action on this game, I’d take Tulsa in the pick ‘em and the under 51.5.
Chick-fil-A Bowl – Dec. 31, 7:30pm EST ESPN
LSU v. Clemson
In the last of the pre-New Year’s bowls, we have a matchup of ten win Tigers’ teams. Clemson’s only loses were to Florida State and South Carolina, and LSU’s only loses were to Alabama and Florida. That’s pretty impressive. We know the stats here – LSU plays great defense, but their offense has woken up as of late, and Clemson has scored on anyone and everyone – well, except for South Carolina. That’s enough of an indicator for me right there. The ACC just can’t compete with SEC defenses. LSU wins in a higher scoring game than many predict.
Gambling angle: The SEC is 5-2 straight up in the last seven here, so I like LSU -4; and the over 58.5 as both teams should be able to score.
Well that’s it for the pre-New Year’s Games!
Until next time…
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