Three weeks in, and we know this much: there is no SEC fatigue. We’ve heard about it for years, yet the results are still the same. The conference has eight teams ranked in the Top 18. Hell, the SEC West alone has five in the Top-10. I said it in my preseason post; I don’t see a way the SEC does not get two teams in the playoff. But, the biggest reason that scenario won’t happen is the SEC East has already beaten each other up, and the SEC West will get around to that in due time. The only way the SEC gets two teams in is if they wind up with a one loss team that doesn’t make the conference championship (like Alabama last year). I just don’t see a way the committee votes in essentially a rematch of a conference championship. But remember, four out of the last five years, the SEC has had two teams in the final four at the end of the year anyway. I’ve been saying all year it is going to happen, but the more I watch the SEC (particularly the West) play, I see a bunch of great teams, but not one or two incredibly dominant teams like we’ve seen the last several years. So, throw in injuries, schedules, and other factors (these still are 18-20 year old kids we’re talking about) and the more realistic scenario is that the SEC does indeed only get one team in. That’s good news for Oregon and others, as we get into this Top-10 recap:
1) That parity is showing itself throughout college football. Nine of the current Top-25 teams already have one loss. No one has looked really dominant outside of Baylor, and they haven’t played anyone. Teams are already victims of the “what have you done for us lately” mentality from the pollsters. USC beat Stanford, but now is ranked behind them because of their loss @ Boston College. Georgia just lost to South Carolina but is still ranked ahead of them, because of South Carolina’s loss to A&M (which outside of Michigan State’s loss to Oregon, is still the best loss of the season so far). Why? Preseason polls. Thankfully, polls won’t make up any formal part of the committee’s rankings and head-to-head will make up a big part of their decisions (as it should, like when Notre Dame beat FSU in 1993 and finished second behind FSU for that National Championship – yeah, I’m still not over that). Side bar: that was also the year Auburn finished 12-0 and #4 in the polls. Oh how things have changed in 20 years. Can you imagine an SEC team finishing undefeated in not in the Top 2? (Then again, let’s just forget about the pesky NCAA probation that Auburn team was under).
2) Okay – back to 2014…I think the most surprising upset over the weekend was East Carolina over Virginia Tech. Va Tech had just gone in to the Horseshoe and beaten Ohio State and then found themselves down 21-0 to East Carolina in the 1st quarter (and it easily could’ve been 38-0). They just didn’t look like the same team that beat Ohio State the week before.
3) USC on the other hand, showed serious defensive weaknesses last weekend against Stanford. The difference was that Boston College actually scored as they marched up and down the field against USC. Stanford did the same thing, but just didn’t capitalize. I think Stanford’s biggest weakness (as I’ve mentioned many times before) is that they play a style of ball very conducive to close games, and that often costs them against good teams. And I think part of that is coaching. I love Shaw as a coach, but I’m not sold on his ability to manage a game the way a Saban or a Miles or Sumlin do. Let’s look back at Stanford’s losses this year and the last two years. 2014: lost to USC by three, 2013; lost to Utah by six, USC by three, and Michigan State by four; 2012: lost to Washington by four and Notre Dame by seven (in O.T.). All of their losses the last two plus years have been by seven or less. Now, they have won their share of close games against good teams as well (2012: USC by seven, Oregon State by four, Oregon by three, UCLA by three, Wisconsin by six; 2013: Washington by three, Oregon by three, Notre Dame by seven). Keep that in mind as the PAC-12 North continues this year – USC’s defense sucks, Stanford has a history of close games, so it’s Oregon who has a chance to fly away with the PAC-12 North.
4) On to the PAC-12 South, UCLA continues to be the worst 3-0 team this year, but because of the hype surrounding them in the preseason, have continued to stick around in the upper end of the polls. But now they have a week off before a Thursday game with ASU, then a visit from improved Utah, before the huge showdown with Oregon on October 11th. They then play some mediocre PAC-12 teams before closing with USC and Stanford. Last year, Auburn made a season by winning improbable game after improbable game; can UCLA do that this year? Well, their game against ASU may be a bit easier since ASU’s QB is possibly out with a still-to-be-disclosed injury (I watched the replay a dozen times and the only thing I can think is turf toe or stress fracture in the ankle; but the Devil’s coaching staff won’t talk about it at all).
5) So a couple upsets and near upsets leads us to Georgia and South Carolina as the most exciting big game of the day. South Carolina’s defense played better, but their turnovers on offense nearly cost them. In the game that no one seemed to want to win, Georgia seemed to content to play for a game tying FG late (which they of course missed) rather than get Gurley the ball and go for the go ahead score. It was fitting that the game pretty much ended with a 4th and two inch QB sneak resulting in a first down by literally one millimeter (and I actually believe they got that spot right). So, the SEC East is wide open with a combined conference record of 2-4 and Florida sitting in the best position right now (which is of course going to change soon).
6) The long season from the Longhorns got even longer when they couldn’t even execute the coin toss properly against UCLA. UCLA won the toss and deferred to the second half, and Texas turned around and elected to play defense, essentially giving UCLA a free possession, which in turn helped UCLA pull out a victory. That was the second oddest coin toss result I’ve seen; followed by the one where Jerome Bettis (playing for the Steelers) clearly called tails, and the ref said “he called heads; heads is the call.”
7) Despite youth, suspensions, injuries, and academic inquiries, Notre Dame is off to a 3-0 start for the second time in three years (and only the first time they’ve done that in 25 years. Wow). They’ve got a week off before Syracuse, and then Stanford comes to South Bend. The polls have the Irish in the Top 10, but I do not. Golson has been playing well, and defense looks pretty good, but looking at this team and their schedule, 9-3 would be a miracle. That isn’t Top-10 material.
8) Virginia has now beaten a ranked team (Louisville) and should’ve beaten another ranked team (UCLA). Are they going to be the sleeper team in the ACC to make some noise? We’ll know more after they travel to BYU this weekend to take on another underrated team. Looking at BYU’s schedule, it’s hard to see a loss out there (v. Nevada, @ UCF, @ Cal, maybe?).
9) Much like Virginia Tech, Oregon forgot to show up in the first quarter. But, well, it was against Wyoming, not East Carolina, and Oregon isn’t Virginia Tech. When the dust settled, Oregon had blown out the Cowboys, helped in part by a defense that forced three turnovers. If Oregon stays healthy on offense, and if their defense can continue to generate some turnovers, they’ll be just fine. Another cupcake this weekend against Washington State, and then UofSuck comes to Eugene on Thursday October 2nd and the Ducks have revenge on their mind for that one.
10) I keep saying this is the year that the PAC-12 overtakes the SEC as the best overall conference. Then USC loses to unranked Boston College, UofSuck struggles with Nevada, and UCLA barely survives a bad Texas team. The SEC took care of business in non-con play this weekend, with the exception of Tennessee losing to Oklahoma; but even then the Vols looked better against the Sooners than many thought. Oh well, just another year of SEC supremacy, I guess.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (2-0) – Chance for a statement game this weekend against Clemson. You’ve owned the Tigers in Tallahassee the last twenty years.
#2. Oklahoma (3-0) – A solid defense and a pretty good offense. Oh, and Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State all at home.
#3. Alabama (3-0) – Schedule is shaping up nicely; @ Ole Miss after a bye, A&M at home, and @ LSU after a bye.
#4. Oregon (3-0) – Only two currently ranked teams remaining on the schedule (@ UCLA and v. Stanford), and the huge strength of schedule win over Michigan State. Still need to win the PAC-12 to make it to the playoff though.
#5. Auburn (2-0) – Of your remaining schedule, seven are in the Top 20. Good luck with that.
#6. LSU (3-0) – @ Auburn in a few weeks. But first you need to take care of pesky Mississippi State.
#7. UCLA (3-0) – Overrated or underachiever? We’ll know more next Thursday when you take on ASU. Now, get healthy.
#8. Baylor (3-0) – Five more preseason games until November 8, @ Oklahoma. You better keep scoring ~60 a game; style points will matter for you.
#9. Texas A&M (3-0) – Still not sold on A&M, but you’ve a few weeks to solidify your Top-10 ranking before that brutal schedule kicks in. A little hint, out of Ole Miss, Alabama, UL Monroe, Auburn, and Missouri, I wouldn’t have scheduled UL Monroe after a bye.
#10. Arizona State (3-0) – But only by default. I can’t have another SEC team in my Top-10 as the losses are going to come eventually. And I can’t have Notre Dame here; they’re just not a Top-10 team (right now, at least). And, ASU has a bye, so it “bye’s” me another week to figure out #10. And finally with their next three games v. UCLA, @ USC, and v. Stanford we’ll know soon enough is ASU is Top-10 material.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – Over/under on how many times his dive into the endzone will be shown on preview commercials or Heisman updates? I’m thinking 17.5.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Oregon – FSU is one of the few teams that can match Oregon’s speed, and their defense is as good as their offense.
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama – I just want to see this matchup in a game that matters, not some crappy BCS bowl game that Alabama doesn’t care about - if nothing else, for the press blurbs from Stoops and Saban.
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – Until there’s reason to believe otherwise, I’m sticking with this. FSU is a three TD favorite against a ranked Clemson team this weekend, and Alabama is back to that usual 42/10 scoring/defense average.
Week 4 Big Games:
Auburn @ Kansas State – As most are gearing up for their conference schedules, we get a nice Thursday match up on ranked non-con teams in a game that does have some national implications. Auburn’s on the road, and Kansas State doesn’t feel like they’re getting any respect in the Big 12. A win over a Top 5 team could certainly add Kansas State into the discussion. But, Auburn’s too strong, and KSU nearly lost to Iowa State last week. Iowa State! Keep an eye on the forecast though. The rain may be the only thing that can slow down the Tiger. Auburn 45 Kansas State 17
Florida @ Alabama – Florida needed triple O.T. to topple Kentucky, but now they stumble into Tuscaloosa with a hungry Alabama team ready to get rolling into SEC play. Florida’s going to come out excited, but it won’t take long for Alabama to take over and control the game. Just another step in the process for Saban and the Tide. Alabama 38 Florida 13.
Week 4 Game of the Week:
Clemson @ Florida State – Remember that leading up to last year’s Clemson/FSU game, it was Clemson that was higher ranked and had national championship ambitions. Of course, FSU clobbered Clemson and ran away with the Championship. Florida State hasn’t played well yet this year, but Clemson doesn’t have the Boyd to Watkins connection anymore and their defense isn’t stellar. And, FSU has owned Clemson in Tallahassee in recent times: winning 10 out of the last 11. Florida State 31 Clemson 10
Until next time…
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Tuesday, September 9, 2014
Week 2 Recap and Week 3 Preview
It’s one of my biggest pet peeves when the pollsters move a team way down in the polls for winning, or worse when they move someone way up when the teams above them keep winning. If you really felt Oregon was the #2 team in the country, why did you wait for them the beat Michigan State to make them #2? Especially when Alabama shut out their opponent in a lightning shortened game. Now, that being said, one team that does deserve to move down (despite winning) is UCLA. Yikes, two wins by the narrowest of margins against Virginia and Memphis? That’s not a good start for what many have predicted to be the PAC-12 winners. But, we’ll know more about UCLA when they take on Texas this weekend and when they travel to the desert (or is it rain forest?) to take on ASU on Thursday September 25th. But, in the meantime, I’m moving UCLA down in my poll.
1) The playoff picture got a bit clearer, as the Big 10 is obviously not going to make it. Not a good week at all for that conference. When your shining moments are Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland staring off 2-0; you’ve got problems. The bigger problem is when in the hell did Rutgers and Maryland join the Big 10?
2) Really the only chance for the Big 10 is for Nebraska to run the table. But, the Husker’s have tough road games at Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Iowa. And the Husker’s road resume isn’t very good since joining the B1G. Their home resume almost took a big hit this weekend against FCS McNeese State. If it wasn’t for Abdullah’s heroics in the final minute, Nebraska probably loses that game in O.T.
3) I don’t know why, but I always take great pleasure in seeing Ohio State lose, especially at home. Maybe it’s because it doesn’t happen very often, or maybe it’s because when it does happen, it’s to a team like Virginia Tech that all of the sudden is playing Beamer Ball again. And that’s a good thing.
4) One more thought on the Big 10 – and that’s Michigan. Wow, what an anticlimactic finish to the Notre Dame & Michigan rivalry. I know both coaches tried to downplay the significance of it before the game, but I think Michigan took that a little too literally and completely forgot to show up. Notre Dame has looked pretty good in their first two, and if they can find a way to beat Stanford in South Bend in a few weeks, they’ll be in the Top 10 when they head off for their first true road game of the year: October 18th @ Tallahassee. And unless FSU gets their act together, that could be an upset in the making against the Seminoles (or at least you can be sure Lou Holtz will predict it that way!).
5) I said in the USC/Stanford preview last week that Stanford “plays the type of games that are always close and can allow for weird things to happen.” Advancing all nine of their offensive possessions to inside the USC 35 yard line and walking away with 10 total points definitely fits that bill. Stanford should’ve beaten USC by 21-24 points, but instead lose by a FG because their offense and kicking game weren’t able to close to out in the red-ish zone. Sure, I’ll give USC’s defense a bit of credit too, but I’m not sold on USC yet, though they have shown that they can win games in a variety of ways this year so far. We’ll know more on October 4th when ASU brings a real offense to the Coliseum.
6) The most impressive thing I saw in the Oregon/Michigan State game was that the momentum was turned not by the Ducks explosive offense, but by their defense. Call it second half adjustments, call it conditioning, call if confidence, call it experience; but whatever you call it, Oregon finally grew up Saturday. They aren’t the flashy team that’s going to score 50+ points a game, but then give up against the Stanford’s of the world when the going gets tough. Things got tough against Sparty, and the Ducks finally responded. With the Stanford loss to USC, the PAC-12 officially goes through Eugene (especially with that road trip to Pasadena in a few weeks not looking nearly as scary). Not to say there isn’t a loss out there though; I still think the PAC-12 is going to beat each other up and when the dust settles, there likely won’t be an undefeated team left in the conference which may hurt them in playoff considerations.
7) While a few of the top ranked teams have struggled so far this year, Oklahoma, Baylor, and A&M have been lighting it up against everyone. Oklahoma and Baylor will continue to do so, until they meet on November 8th, and A&M will continue to roll for the next few weeks, but look at how their schedule closes out: v. Ole Miss, @ Alabama, @ Auburn, v. Missouri, v. LSU. Okay, there’s a UL Monroe in there as well, but does anyone think they can run that gauntlet without a loss? I sure don’t.
8) Arizona State’s offense has been looking great as expected, but it’s still a bit scary to look on the other side of the ball and see all of those ju-co transfers. That’s worked fine against Weber State and New Mexico, and will work fine against Colorado this weekend, but then their schedule goes all A&M on them: UCLA, USC, and Stanford in three straight; followed up with games against Washington and Notre Dame. It was interesting to see on one of the broadcasts that ASU is actually the PAC-12 team with the longest drought in the entire conference of not finishing in the Top-10 in the country. Looks like that’s gonna continue.
9) For our weekly comparisons of the PAC-12 versus SEC, let’s just do something to save us all the trouble in future comparisons – the Autumn Wind is kicking Vandy out of the SEC and Washington State out of the PAC-12. This week’s comment refers to defense. Who would’ve thought five years ago that the PAC-12 would be the defensive conference and the SEC would the wild west of offenses? Well, that’s what appears to have happened. So far.
10) There’s going to be some tough decisions for the committee to make if things progress as I’m anticipating. Which is, undefeated ACC and Big 12 champions, and a bunch of one and two loss teams from the PAC-12 and SEC. The Big 10 is out, and the AAC was never in. You keep hearing about SEC fatigue, but the polls have 5 SEC teams in the Top 10 compared to just two for the PAC-12. That’s why I still think there’s going to be two SEC teams in the playoff, Georgia (as a result of beating Auburn or A&M in the SEC Championship), and Alabama (as a result of one regular season loss and no SEC Championship appearance).
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (2-0) – It’s now obvious they aren’t going to cruise through every game like they did last regular season.
#2. Oklahoma (2-0) – But, Oklahoma probably will.
#3. Alabama (2-0) – Undefeated, one loss, two losses, or even three losses are all a possibility.
#4. Georgia (1-0) – The stars appear to be aligning.
#5. Oregon (2-0) – Only team with a major statement win so far.
#6. Auburn (2-0) – Not sneaking up on anyone this year, but still rolling. Errrr…..War Eaglin’….
#7. LSU (2-0) – Someone’s gonna survive the SEC West – could be Miles and Co.
#8. UCLA (2-0) – Yikes. They need to get things figured out quick.
#9. Baylor (2-0) – I can see a scenario lining up where you’re the only undefeated team.
#10.USC (2-0) – Nice win over Stanford, but let’s be honest; they left A LOT of points out there in your red zone.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – Bad time for a bye week for Gurley; Mariota leads a second half comeback against Michigan State, and is still my pick for the Heisman. He wasn’t flashy, but he didn’t make any errors; and he showed a maturity and confidence that Oregon overall has lacked when falling behind the last couple of years. But, this weekend Georgia has South Carolina while Oregon has Wyoming. And neither team plays anyone of consequence for the next few weeks so it may leave the door open for someone else to sneak into the picture. But for now it’s Mariota and Gurley running neck and neck.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Georgia
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – So many uncertainties still, especially with how poorly (or at least underachieving) the top ranked teams (outside of Oregon and Auburn) have played so far. But, I’ll stick with this for now.
Week 3 Big Games:
UCLA v. Texas – Desperation for both teams. UCLA was supposed to run away with the PAC-12, but they’re not even to conference play yet and they’ve almost found ways to lose to Virginia and Memphis. Texas was blown out by BYU (again), and is still searching for their identity under Charlie Strong. The game’s at a “neutral” site, but in Texas; but UCLA is more experienced, and already tested (though, they shouldn’t have been tested by Virginia or Memphis). Texas can pull the upset, but they don’t. UCLA gets back on track right before conference play. UCLA 41 Texas 27.
Week 3 Game of the Week:
Georgia @ South Carolina – It’s only week 3, but this is probably the SEC Semi-final. Despite losing to A&M in week 1, and struggling a bit with East Carolina, the Gamecocks are back at home. Georgia’s off a bye and can really distance themselves not only in the race for the SEC East, but also for a solid shot at the playoff. South Carolina had won three straight in the series before last year’s loss, but Georgia had won 7 out of 8 before that. Look for the same game plan Georgia had against Clemson: a steady dose of Gurley, early and often, and look for the same result. Georgia 45 South Carolina 24.
Until next time…
1) The playoff picture got a bit clearer, as the Big 10 is obviously not going to make it. Not a good week at all for that conference. When your shining moments are Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland staring off 2-0; you’ve got problems. The bigger problem is when in the hell did Rutgers and Maryland join the Big 10?
2) Really the only chance for the Big 10 is for Nebraska to run the table. But, the Husker’s have tough road games at Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Iowa. And the Husker’s road resume isn’t very good since joining the B1G. Their home resume almost took a big hit this weekend against FCS McNeese State. If it wasn’t for Abdullah’s heroics in the final minute, Nebraska probably loses that game in O.T.
3) I don’t know why, but I always take great pleasure in seeing Ohio State lose, especially at home. Maybe it’s because it doesn’t happen very often, or maybe it’s because when it does happen, it’s to a team like Virginia Tech that all of the sudden is playing Beamer Ball again. And that’s a good thing.
4) One more thought on the Big 10 – and that’s Michigan. Wow, what an anticlimactic finish to the Notre Dame & Michigan rivalry. I know both coaches tried to downplay the significance of it before the game, but I think Michigan took that a little too literally and completely forgot to show up. Notre Dame has looked pretty good in their first two, and if they can find a way to beat Stanford in South Bend in a few weeks, they’ll be in the Top 10 when they head off for their first true road game of the year: October 18th @ Tallahassee. And unless FSU gets their act together, that could be an upset in the making against the Seminoles (or at least you can be sure Lou Holtz will predict it that way!).
5) I said in the USC/Stanford preview last week that Stanford “plays the type of games that are always close and can allow for weird things to happen.” Advancing all nine of their offensive possessions to inside the USC 35 yard line and walking away with 10 total points definitely fits that bill. Stanford should’ve beaten USC by 21-24 points, but instead lose by a FG because their offense and kicking game weren’t able to close to out in the red-ish zone. Sure, I’ll give USC’s defense a bit of credit too, but I’m not sold on USC yet, though they have shown that they can win games in a variety of ways this year so far. We’ll know more on October 4th when ASU brings a real offense to the Coliseum.
6) The most impressive thing I saw in the Oregon/Michigan State game was that the momentum was turned not by the Ducks explosive offense, but by their defense. Call it second half adjustments, call it conditioning, call if confidence, call it experience; but whatever you call it, Oregon finally grew up Saturday. They aren’t the flashy team that’s going to score 50+ points a game, but then give up against the Stanford’s of the world when the going gets tough. Things got tough against Sparty, and the Ducks finally responded. With the Stanford loss to USC, the PAC-12 officially goes through Eugene (especially with that road trip to Pasadena in a few weeks not looking nearly as scary). Not to say there isn’t a loss out there though; I still think the PAC-12 is going to beat each other up and when the dust settles, there likely won’t be an undefeated team left in the conference which may hurt them in playoff considerations.
7) While a few of the top ranked teams have struggled so far this year, Oklahoma, Baylor, and A&M have been lighting it up against everyone. Oklahoma and Baylor will continue to do so, until they meet on November 8th, and A&M will continue to roll for the next few weeks, but look at how their schedule closes out: v. Ole Miss, @ Alabama, @ Auburn, v. Missouri, v. LSU. Okay, there’s a UL Monroe in there as well, but does anyone think they can run that gauntlet without a loss? I sure don’t.
8) Arizona State’s offense has been looking great as expected, but it’s still a bit scary to look on the other side of the ball and see all of those ju-co transfers. That’s worked fine against Weber State and New Mexico, and will work fine against Colorado this weekend, but then their schedule goes all A&M on them: UCLA, USC, and Stanford in three straight; followed up with games against Washington and Notre Dame. It was interesting to see on one of the broadcasts that ASU is actually the PAC-12 team with the longest drought in the entire conference of not finishing in the Top-10 in the country. Looks like that’s gonna continue.
9) For our weekly comparisons of the PAC-12 versus SEC, let’s just do something to save us all the trouble in future comparisons – the Autumn Wind is kicking Vandy out of the SEC and Washington State out of the PAC-12. This week’s comment refers to defense. Who would’ve thought five years ago that the PAC-12 would be the defensive conference and the SEC would the wild west of offenses? Well, that’s what appears to have happened. So far.
10) There’s going to be some tough decisions for the committee to make if things progress as I’m anticipating. Which is, undefeated ACC and Big 12 champions, and a bunch of one and two loss teams from the PAC-12 and SEC. The Big 10 is out, and the AAC was never in. You keep hearing about SEC fatigue, but the polls have 5 SEC teams in the Top 10 compared to just two for the PAC-12. That’s why I still think there’s going to be two SEC teams in the playoff, Georgia (as a result of beating Auburn or A&M in the SEC Championship), and Alabama (as a result of one regular season loss and no SEC Championship appearance).
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (2-0) – It’s now obvious they aren’t going to cruise through every game like they did last regular season.
#2. Oklahoma (2-0) – But, Oklahoma probably will.
#3. Alabama (2-0) – Undefeated, one loss, two losses, or even three losses are all a possibility.
#4. Georgia (1-0) – The stars appear to be aligning.
#5. Oregon (2-0) – Only team with a major statement win so far.
#6. Auburn (2-0) – Not sneaking up on anyone this year, but still rolling. Errrr…..War Eaglin’….
#7. LSU (2-0) – Someone’s gonna survive the SEC West – could be Miles and Co.
#8. UCLA (2-0) – Yikes. They need to get things figured out quick.
#9. Baylor (2-0) – I can see a scenario lining up where you’re the only undefeated team.
#10.USC (2-0) – Nice win over Stanford, but let’s be honest; they left A LOT of points out there in your red zone.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – Bad time for a bye week for Gurley; Mariota leads a second half comeback against Michigan State, and is still my pick for the Heisman. He wasn’t flashy, but he didn’t make any errors; and he showed a maturity and confidence that Oregon overall has lacked when falling behind the last couple of years. But, this weekend Georgia has South Carolina while Oregon has Wyoming. And neither team plays anyone of consequence for the next few weeks so it may leave the door open for someone else to sneak into the picture. But for now it’s Mariota and Gurley running neck and neck.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Georgia
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – So many uncertainties still, especially with how poorly (or at least underachieving) the top ranked teams (outside of Oregon and Auburn) have played so far. But, I’ll stick with this for now.
Week 3 Big Games:
UCLA v. Texas – Desperation for both teams. UCLA was supposed to run away with the PAC-12, but they’re not even to conference play yet and they’ve almost found ways to lose to Virginia and Memphis. Texas was blown out by BYU (again), and is still searching for their identity under Charlie Strong. The game’s at a “neutral” site, but in Texas; but UCLA is more experienced, and already tested (though, they shouldn’t have been tested by Virginia or Memphis). Texas can pull the upset, but they don’t. UCLA gets back on track right before conference play. UCLA 41 Texas 27.
Week 3 Game of the Week:
Georgia @ South Carolina – It’s only week 3, but this is probably the SEC Semi-final. Despite losing to A&M in week 1, and struggling a bit with East Carolina, the Gamecocks are back at home. Georgia’s off a bye and can really distance themselves not only in the race for the SEC East, but also for a solid shot at the playoff. South Carolina had won three straight in the series before last year’s loss, but Georgia had won 7 out of 8 before that. Look for the same game plan Georgia had against Clemson: a steady dose of Gurley, early and often, and look for the same result. Georgia 45 South Carolina 24.
Until next time…
Wednesday, September 3, 2014
Week 1 Recap and Week 2 Preview
After week 1, we officially have more questions than answers. Well, except for one question we now know the answer to: no, South Carolina won’t win the SEC, won’t get into the playoff, and probably won’t even compete in the SEC East. Ouch. It’s one thing to lose the opening game; it’s another to do so at home as a double digit favorite while giving up the most yardage ever to a pass happy team that had lost their QB, best WR, and starting left tackle to the NFL draft. Good thing I didn’t have South Carolina making a run this year to the playoff. Oops. Enough about that, let’s take a look a few more things we learned (and a few more questions we have) after week 1:
1) In our search for answers, you can divide week 1 into 1) teams that didn’t play anyone and took care of business (looking at you Oregon, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Baylor, Stanford, Ole Miss, ASU, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Missouri), 2) teams that had some decent opponents but didn’t really struggle (specifically Auburn and USC), 3) ranked matchups (A&M/South Carolina, Georgia/Clemson, and LSU/Wisconsin) where the better teams clearly one, and 4) four games where top-10 teams struggled (FSU, Alabama, Ohio State, and UCLA). Of those, the Ohio State game was the least of a surprise. Navy is a good team, and Ohio State has to re-tool that offense. Still, when all was done, Ohio State had won comfortably. FSU, Alabama, and UCLA? Not so much…
2) Sure, UCLA had to travel across the country and play essentially a 9am (Pacific time kickoff) against an average Virginia team; but they needed three defensive TD’s to pull off the victory and avoid the upset. That’s not a good start for a team many have winning the PAC-12, getting into the playoff, and having a QB in the Heisman discussion (big step backwards for Hundley).
3) Florida State found out exactly how a hard it is to repeat in their opening week challenge against a pesky Oklahoma State team that just wouldn’t go away. I’ll call it a combination of rust and cockiness for the Seminoles, but I also am already looking forward to Bedlam on December 6th. If Oklahoma State can continue to play like they did on Saturday, and build upon that through their Big 12 schedule, they could have the chance to knock Boomer Sooner out of the playoff. The loss did pretty much eliminate Oklahoma State from the playoff though, especially since there are probably a couple more losses on the table.
4) We’ve seen Alabama open up their season against quality Power 5 conference teams over and over, and the results are always the same: ‘Bama up by two to three TDs after one, giving up a FG or fewer by the end of the half, and then coasting to an easy victory. But, at halftime against WVU, they were only up by a FG, and had already given up 17 points. Still, the victory really wasn’t ever in doubt in the 2nd half, and I think Alabama will be just fine, especially if Sims keeps handing it off 40 or more times to Yeldon and Henry. The biggest concern for Alabama right now is injuries – more on that later.
5) Maybe these were just pre-season jitters and adjustments for new personnel for FSU, Alabama, and UCLA. Maybe Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Virginia are much better teams than we thought. Or maybe these teams with high expectations are already feeling the pressure of the playoff system. My thought is that it’s a combination of the first two, and that the latter certainly didn’t come into play this early in the season.
6) Of all the ranked versus unranked games I found most impressive was USC’s thrashing of Fresno State, especially with all of the off the field drama surrounding USC the last couple of weeks. Now, Fresno isn’t the team they were last year, but for the Trojans to put on a performance like they did showed that Sarkisian is in control of this team. Big test in Palo Alto this weekend to see what could wind up being a preview of the PAC-12 Championship later this year.
7) Les Miles in the only coach in the country that could pull off a fake punt call with the wrong personnel in the game, have it succeed, and have it result in yet another come from behind win. Wisconsin was in control of that game for nearly three quarters. But in the end, LSU knows how to win close games, and Wisconsin sure knows how to lose them. It’s nothing new for the Badgers to seemingly snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory time and time again in big games recently. The best stat from this one? LSU is now 22-21 in games under Les Miles where they trailed entering the fourth quarter. That’s impressive.
8) Many are saying the most impressive performance in week 1 was Georgia taking down Clemson in Athens. I have to agree, especially how the game unfolded – Clemson takes a 21-14 lead and then Heisman hopeful Todd Gurley runs the ensuing kick back 100 yards for the equalizer, and then adds two more long TD runs in the 4th to seal it. This may be Georgia’s year finally, with a fairly favorable SEC schedule. But they’ve gotta take care of business next week against South Carolina.
9) I still think the PAC-12 is going to wind up being the better, deeper conference compared to the SEC this year. But, they didn’t help my case this weekend. Sure, Vandy turned it over seven times and lost to Temple; but Washington barely survived Hawaii, Washington State lost at home to Rutgers, preseason conference champ pick UCLA struggled against Virginia, and Colorado lost at home to Colorado State. And, Cal beating Northwestern isn’t nearly as impressive as Georgia beating Clemson and LSU beating Wisconsin. So, week 1 advantage goes to the SEC. Week 2 goes to the PAC-12 just because of the Oregon-Michigan State game. They toughest SEC game this weekend is East Carolina @ South Carolina. Then again, UTSA is going to beat UofSuck this weekend which won’t do the PAC-12 any favors.
10) Several teams have had some significant injuries already in week 1. I wonder how that will wind up affecting the playoff committee’s selections come December? We see it in college basketball all of the time – a team deserving of a one seed gets bumped down to a two or three seed (or worse) because of late injuries. Will something like that happen with football? Think about this scenario – an undefeated Alabama barely beats Auburn at the end of the year and loses Yeldon due to injury and he’s out for the SEC Championship Game against a one-loss Georgia team. Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship, but the playoff is three weeks away and Yeldon will be back by then. Does a one-loss, non-SEC Champion Alabama get into the playoff (especially considering the SEC Champion regardless of number of losses is in)? Well, time will tell. And as I’ve always said in the Autumn Wind – these things always have a way of working themselves out, especially in the last month of the season.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (1-0) – If you play Clemson as close as you played Oklahoma State, I’m dropping you like third period French.
#2. Oklahoma (1-0) – @ West Virginia on September 20th looks a bit more interesting all of the sudden.
#3. UCLA (1-0) – Your offense better get things together or you’re gonna get hooked by the Horns in two weeks.
#4. Alabama (1-0) – You win in week 1, your two-headed running back committee goes for over 200 yards, Sims throws for 250, and the defense was pretty good. And everyone is saying “what’s wrong with Alabama?” Well, just part of the “process.”
#5. Oregon (1-0) – My goal in keeping you outside of the Top 4 right now is so you earn it; rather than the last three years of disappointment. That, and this week’s matchup against a very similar style to that of Stanford.
#6. Michigan State (1-0) – Big 10’s best hope to get into the playoff is for you to win the September Rose Bowl.
#7. Auburn (1-0) – Brutal schedule upcoming: @ Kansas State, v. LSU, @ Mississippi State, v. South Carolina, @ Ole Miss, v. Texas A&M, @ Georgia, @ Alabama. With that schedule, two losses may get you in the Top 4.
#8. Georgia (1-0) – Take care of South Carolina on the road in a couple weeks, and a 9-0 start is well within reach before Auburn comes to Athens on November 15th.
#9. LSU (1-0) – A&M should probably be up here, but the win against Wisconsin is going to prove to be more impressive as every week goes on.
#10.Baylor (1-0) – ‘Cuz I just can’t have 5 SEC teams in the Top 10.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – But, he’s going to need a solid performance and a win against Michigan State this weekend; as everyone is talking about Gurley from Georgia (and rightfully so – that was a Heisman performance in week 1 against Clemson).
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Georgia
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – I’ve got a bad feeling this prediction isn’t going to last long…but which team will be the first to fall? Considering the schedule and injuries, it’ll be Alabama. Then again, for the remainder of September, FSU’s schedule is much more difficult than Alabama’s.
Week 2 Big Games:
USC @ Stanford – Shaw and Sark don’t like each other. USC wants to go fast, Stanford wants to go slow. Stanford has lost of experience (especially on defense), but USC has seemed to pick up Sark’s system in no time. Stanford’s won 17 straight in a row at home (longest streak in the nation), but plays the type of games that are always close and can allow for weird things to happen (see @ Utah last year). I really like Stanford’s program and what Shaw’s done, and I absolutely hate USC, but I think USC pulls the shocker: 27 to 24.
Michigan @ Notre Dame – The last scheduled game between these two rivals, and Michigan looks to play spoiler under the lights in South Bend. Notre Dame is the better team this year, but that rarely matters in this series (though the home team has won the last three). With the exception of last year, the previous four were decided by six or fewer points, including several with multiple comebacks in the final minutes. I hate picking a winner in this game, so I’ll just pick Michigan. If they win I’ll be happy I’m right, and if Notre Dame wins, I’ll gladly stand up and sway while singing “Notre Dame, Our Mother” one last time in this series. Michigan 34 Notre Dame 31.
Week 2 Game of the Week:
Michigan State @ Oregon – If anyone other than Stanford can slow down the Ducks, it’s Michigan State. Very similar styles – ball control offense, and a swarming defense. But, Stanford has the experience of playing Oregon’s speed every year. Michigan State does not. And, it’s a long road trip for the Spartans. Finally, Oregon has a chip on their shoulder and has a chance in the national spotlight to say “don’t forget about us.” Look for the Ducks to fly high in Eugene: Oregon 41 Michigan State 20.
Until next time…
1) In our search for answers, you can divide week 1 into 1) teams that didn’t play anyone and took care of business (looking at you Oregon, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Baylor, Stanford, Ole Miss, ASU, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Missouri), 2) teams that had some decent opponents but didn’t really struggle (specifically Auburn and USC), 3) ranked matchups (A&M/South Carolina, Georgia/Clemson, and LSU/Wisconsin) where the better teams clearly one, and 4) four games where top-10 teams struggled (FSU, Alabama, Ohio State, and UCLA). Of those, the Ohio State game was the least of a surprise. Navy is a good team, and Ohio State has to re-tool that offense. Still, when all was done, Ohio State had won comfortably. FSU, Alabama, and UCLA? Not so much…
2) Sure, UCLA had to travel across the country and play essentially a 9am (Pacific time kickoff) against an average Virginia team; but they needed three defensive TD’s to pull off the victory and avoid the upset. That’s not a good start for a team many have winning the PAC-12, getting into the playoff, and having a QB in the Heisman discussion (big step backwards for Hundley).
3) Florida State found out exactly how a hard it is to repeat in their opening week challenge against a pesky Oklahoma State team that just wouldn’t go away. I’ll call it a combination of rust and cockiness for the Seminoles, but I also am already looking forward to Bedlam on December 6th. If Oklahoma State can continue to play like they did on Saturday, and build upon that through their Big 12 schedule, they could have the chance to knock Boomer Sooner out of the playoff. The loss did pretty much eliminate Oklahoma State from the playoff though, especially since there are probably a couple more losses on the table.
4) We’ve seen Alabama open up their season against quality Power 5 conference teams over and over, and the results are always the same: ‘Bama up by two to three TDs after one, giving up a FG or fewer by the end of the half, and then coasting to an easy victory. But, at halftime against WVU, they were only up by a FG, and had already given up 17 points. Still, the victory really wasn’t ever in doubt in the 2nd half, and I think Alabama will be just fine, especially if Sims keeps handing it off 40 or more times to Yeldon and Henry. The biggest concern for Alabama right now is injuries – more on that later.
5) Maybe these were just pre-season jitters and adjustments for new personnel for FSU, Alabama, and UCLA. Maybe Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Virginia are much better teams than we thought. Or maybe these teams with high expectations are already feeling the pressure of the playoff system. My thought is that it’s a combination of the first two, and that the latter certainly didn’t come into play this early in the season.
6) Of all the ranked versus unranked games I found most impressive was USC’s thrashing of Fresno State, especially with all of the off the field drama surrounding USC the last couple of weeks. Now, Fresno isn’t the team they were last year, but for the Trojans to put on a performance like they did showed that Sarkisian is in control of this team. Big test in Palo Alto this weekend to see what could wind up being a preview of the PAC-12 Championship later this year.
7) Les Miles in the only coach in the country that could pull off a fake punt call with the wrong personnel in the game, have it succeed, and have it result in yet another come from behind win. Wisconsin was in control of that game for nearly three quarters. But in the end, LSU knows how to win close games, and Wisconsin sure knows how to lose them. It’s nothing new for the Badgers to seemingly snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory time and time again in big games recently. The best stat from this one? LSU is now 22-21 in games under Les Miles where they trailed entering the fourth quarter. That’s impressive.
8) Many are saying the most impressive performance in week 1 was Georgia taking down Clemson in Athens. I have to agree, especially how the game unfolded – Clemson takes a 21-14 lead and then Heisman hopeful Todd Gurley runs the ensuing kick back 100 yards for the equalizer, and then adds two more long TD runs in the 4th to seal it. This may be Georgia’s year finally, with a fairly favorable SEC schedule. But they’ve gotta take care of business next week against South Carolina.
9) I still think the PAC-12 is going to wind up being the better, deeper conference compared to the SEC this year. But, they didn’t help my case this weekend. Sure, Vandy turned it over seven times and lost to Temple; but Washington barely survived Hawaii, Washington State lost at home to Rutgers, preseason conference champ pick UCLA struggled against Virginia, and Colorado lost at home to Colorado State. And, Cal beating Northwestern isn’t nearly as impressive as Georgia beating Clemson and LSU beating Wisconsin. So, week 1 advantage goes to the SEC. Week 2 goes to the PAC-12 just because of the Oregon-Michigan State game. They toughest SEC game this weekend is East Carolina @ South Carolina. Then again, UTSA is going to beat UofSuck this weekend which won’t do the PAC-12 any favors.
10) Several teams have had some significant injuries already in week 1. I wonder how that will wind up affecting the playoff committee’s selections come December? We see it in college basketball all of the time – a team deserving of a one seed gets bumped down to a two or three seed (or worse) because of late injuries. Will something like that happen with football? Think about this scenario – an undefeated Alabama barely beats Auburn at the end of the year and loses Yeldon due to injury and he’s out for the SEC Championship Game against a one-loss Georgia team. Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship, but the playoff is three weeks away and Yeldon will be back by then. Does a one-loss, non-SEC Champion Alabama get into the playoff (especially considering the SEC Champion regardless of number of losses is in)? Well, time will tell. And as I’ve always said in the Autumn Wind – these things always have a way of working themselves out, especially in the last month of the season.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (1-0) – If you play Clemson as close as you played Oklahoma State, I’m dropping you like third period French.
#2. Oklahoma (1-0) – @ West Virginia on September 20th looks a bit more interesting all of the sudden.
#3. UCLA (1-0) – Your offense better get things together or you’re gonna get hooked by the Horns in two weeks.
#4. Alabama (1-0) – You win in week 1, your two-headed running back committee goes for over 200 yards, Sims throws for 250, and the defense was pretty good. And everyone is saying “what’s wrong with Alabama?” Well, just part of the “process.”
#5. Oregon (1-0) – My goal in keeping you outside of the Top 4 right now is so you earn it; rather than the last three years of disappointment. That, and this week’s matchup against a very similar style to that of Stanford.
#6. Michigan State (1-0) – Big 10’s best hope to get into the playoff is for you to win the September Rose Bowl.
#7. Auburn (1-0) – Brutal schedule upcoming: @ Kansas State, v. LSU, @ Mississippi State, v. South Carolina, @ Ole Miss, v. Texas A&M, @ Georgia, @ Alabama. With that schedule, two losses may get you in the Top 4.
#8. Georgia (1-0) – Take care of South Carolina on the road in a couple weeks, and a 9-0 start is well within reach before Auburn comes to Athens on November 15th.
#9. LSU (1-0) – A&M should probably be up here, but the win against Wisconsin is going to prove to be more impressive as every week goes on.
#10.Baylor (1-0) – ‘Cuz I just can’t have 5 SEC teams in the Top 10.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – But, he’s going to need a solid performance and a win against Michigan State this weekend; as everyone is talking about Gurley from Georgia (and rightfully so – that was a Heisman performance in week 1 against Clemson).
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Georgia
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – I’ve got a bad feeling this prediction isn’t going to last long…but which team will be the first to fall? Considering the schedule and injuries, it’ll be Alabama. Then again, for the remainder of September, FSU’s schedule is much more difficult than Alabama’s.
Week 2 Big Games:
USC @ Stanford – Shaw and Sark don’t like each other. USC wants to go fast, Stanford wants to go slow. Stanford has lost of experience (especially on defense), but USC has seemed to pick up Sark’s system in no time. Stanford’s won 17 straight in a row at home (longest streak in the nation), but plays the type of games that are always close and can allow for weird things to happen (see @ Utah last year). I really like Stanford’s program and what Shaw’s done, and I absolutely hate USC, but I think USC pulls the shocker: 27 to 24.
Michigan @ Notre Dame – The last scheduled game between these two rivals, and Michigan looks to play spoiler under the lights in South Bend. Notre Dame is the better team this year, but that rarely matters in this series (though the home team has won the last three). With the exception of last year, the previous four were decided by six or fewer points, including several with multiple comebacks in the final minutes. I hate picking a winner in this game, so I’ll just pick Michigan. If they win I’ll be happy I’m right, and if Notre Dame wins, I’ll gladly stand up and sway while singing “Notre Dame, Our Mother” one last time in this series. Michigan 34 Notre Dame 31.
Week 2 Game of the Week:
Michigan State @ Oregon – If anyone other than Stanford can slow down the Ducks, it’s Michigan State. Very similar styles – ball control offense, and a swarming defense. But, Stanford has the experience of playing Oregon’s speed every year. Michigan State does not. And, it’s a long road trip for the Spartans. Finally, Oregon has a chip on their shoulder and has a chance in the national spotlight to say “don’t forget about us.” Look for the Ducks to fly high in Eugene: Oregon 41 Michigan State 20.
Until next time…
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Week 1 Preview
On the drive home from work the last couple of weeks, the angle of the sun has been slightly different. The air is a bit colder, the mosquitos a bit worse, and the DVR is cranking away recording all new episodes of “Bering Sea Gold.” That can only mean one thing: it’s back!
So, with only a couple days to go until the 2014-2015 kick-off, college football is back, and the Autumn Wind is back for its 8th season. In this preseason edition, I’ll list my top things to watch for this year; I’ll offer up my games of the week; and my pre-season Top-10, why they’ll win it, and why they won’t. We’ll also get into the four team playoff, and how it’s a guarantee that the SEC will take two of those spots. I’ll pick the conference winners, Heisman winner, playoff participants, and national champs. A few rants and raves will follow, and I’ll try not bore you with details of how bad this season will be for Notre Dame – academic investigations/suspensions, one of the worst schedules in the nation (Vegas had their win total O/U at 7.5, and that was pre-suspensions) and loss of many key weapons on offense and defense. It’s going to be a long Autumn in South Bend.
For year 8 of the Autumn Wind (and for what really should be an eight team playoff), let’s look at the top 8 things to watch for this season.
Top-8 Things to Watch for This Season
1. The first year of the four team playoff is going to dominate the discussion this year. I already don’t like it, and the season hasn’t even started yet. Why? Well, I think Stanford’s coach says it best when he talks about the inequalities in scheduling within the major conferences. Some play everyone in their conference, most don’t; many have a conference championship, some don’t; some sprinkle in a bunch of gimme’s in their non-conference play; others at least try to schedule some quality non-conference games (which of course is tough to predict many years out how quality those games will be when they actually arrive). But most of all – six major conferences (well, five; we don’t really count the Big E….errr, AAC) and only four spots in the playoffs. That means, at best – and I’ll say it again, at best; one of the major conference champions won’t get into the playoff. And, this year particularly, I think there’s only two spots available, as the SEC champions is obviously in, and I believe the SEC will get a second team in the Top 4. Sure, the argument is that the playoff is designed to put the top four teams in regardless of conference, but it’s just not right that one, two, or even three major conference champions won’t make the playoff. But hey, they’ve got until 2025 to figure this all out, so let’s just have fun with it.
2. While the SEC is clearly the #1 conference still, the PAC-12 continues to rise. We all know about Stanford and Oregon. But, they may not even win the conference. UCLA is the top dog right now, and Washington, USC, and ASU are all on the rise as well. Now, let’s just forget about Washington State, Colorado, and Utah…
3. Ohio State was in most people’s Top 5, but with the loss of their Heisman candidate QB, there is serious doubt as to how Ohio State will perform. They’re certainly talented enough all over the place to win games even with a new QB, but their schedule isn’t going to do them any favors. They only have one ranked team on the schedule: @ Michigan State. Their non-con is Navy, Virginia Tech, Kent State, and Cincinnati (that’s one reference, Ryan); certainly not going to get them many points from the committee. So, basically, their season comes down to the Michigan State game. If they can scrap together an undefeated season, they will be in the Top 4, but of all the teams out there, they have the littlest room for error.
4. I take that back. Marshall has the littlest room for error. There’s talk that they’ll run the table and make a play for #4, but that’s just not going to happen. I hope they go undefeated and have a great season, I really do. But they play no one. Literally. I think their toughest game is FIU. Even if every other team in the country has two losses, Marshall doesn’t deserve to be in the Top 4. Put them in a bowl game against someone from a power conference, but don’t waste a spot in the playoff on them. The difference between the NCAA basketball tourney (where we all love a Cinderella making a run to the Sweet 16, or even Elite 8, or occasionally Final Four) and football is the Cinderalla’s don’t belong in a four team playoff. Before the “but what about Boise State over Oklahoma?” talk starts, remember that Boise was a helluva team that year and Oklahoma was overrated (and Boise was actually ranked higher than OU in that game).
5. For major conference predictions, I like Alabama beating South Carolina to take the SEC, Michigan State clawing it out against Wisconsin to win the Big 10, Florida State over North Carolina the ACC, UCLA over Oregon in the PAC-12, and Oklahoma in the Big 12.
6. I know this year is the last scheduled game between Notre Dame and Michigan. And I know that Notre Dame probably won’t ever join a conference, even though they’re now trending away from a Big 10 dominated schedule to an ACC dominated schedule. And, they’ll always retain Navy, USC, and Stanford on the schedule. But dammit, find a way to make that Michigan-Notre Dame game a permanent annual game. Frankly, college football is just better when that game is always on the schedule every year.
7. It’ll be interesting to watch how some of the big name coaches perform at their new schools: Charlie Strong at Texas, Sarkisian at USC, Bobby Petrino back to Louisville again, and Chris Petersen moving over from Boise State to Washington. But, the most intriguing move I’ll be watching is Lame Kiffin as the offensive coordinator at Alabama. It’s no secret I’m not a fan of Kiffin, mainly because he’s been an over paid under achiever living off the laurels of his dad and the promise of success when he never sticks around to see it through (mainly because he gets run out of town within a year or two, with a fat wallet). But, as horrible as he is, well was, as a head coach either in college or the NFL, he is a very good offense mind, and when plugged into the right situation, he should excel. And if anyone knows how to plug people into the right situation, it’s Nick Saban. Perfect timing too, with a full stable of running backs to provide a little relief to a new QB at Alabama.
8. It was nearly seven years ago when Appalachian State upset then #5 Michigan in the Big House, and lost the following week to Oregon. Notre Dame was upset by Georgia Tech in week 1, and destroyed by Penn State in week 2. That marked the first time ever in this history of college football that both Michigan and Notre Dame started the season 0-2, and marked the first time since 1909 that both Michigan and Notre Dame were unranked when they played. Those two weeks and what transpired were what spawned what we now know at the Autumn Wind. The last couple of years I keep swearing up and down that I’m done with this blog, but then I get the itch again right before the season starts. Let’s enjoy the ride once again!
Games of the Week
Week 1: Wisconsin v. LSU – Huge implications for strength of schedule points for later in the season. But both are still going to need to win their conferences if they want to get into the playoff.
Week 2: Michigan State @ Oregon – It’s like the Rose Bowl. In September. In Oregon.
Week 3: Georgia @ South Carolina – It’s like the SEC East semifinal.
Week 4: Clemson @ Florida State – FSU’s only major test of the year, and they’ll probably be a 16.5 point favorite.
Week 5: UCLA @ ASU – Big road test for UCLA. It’ll still be hot in the desert.
Week 6: LSU @ Auburn – Both need a win to keep their hopes alive in the NFL Southeast, I mean SEC West.
Week 7: Oregon @ UCLA – Preview of the PAC-12 Championship?
Week 8: Texas A&M @ Alabama – No Johnny Football, but let’s not forget how much Saban hated these games the last two years, even though Alabama won last year.
Week 9: South Carolina @ Auburn – Will South Carolina be fighting to stay on top in the SEC or just fighting to play spoiler?
Week 10: Stanford @ Oregon – Can the Trees make it three in a row over the Ducks?
Week 11: Alabama @ LSU – Always one of the most entertaining and competitive games of the year. It usually plays like an NFL game.
Week 12: Auburn @ Georgia – Bulldogs usually peak late. A victory here keeps them in contention for both the SEC and the playoff.
Week 13: USC @ UCLA – UCLA has owned USC recently. They’ll need for that to continue to win the PAC-12 and get to the playoff.
Week 14: Auburn @ Alabama – Iron Bowl. ‘Nuff said.
Week 15: Kansas State @ Baylor – Will they be playing for second place in the Big 12, or for a shot at the playoff?
The Pre-Season Top-10
#1. Florida State – No brainer here; the National Champs return their Heisman trophy QB, and they’ll be double digit favorites in every game this year. They only have two preseason ranked teams (Clemson and Notre Dame), and both are at home (as is the end of season matchup against Florida). Assuming they don’t lose @ NC State following the Clemson game, Florida State should roll into the playoff as the #1 seed.
#2. Oklahoma – Fourteen returning starters, a favorable schedule (both Kansas State and Baylor @ home), and a lot of momentum after knocking around Alabama in their bowl game last year propel Oklahoma into #2. We’ll also get to see if the Big-12 not having a conference championship game helps or hurts their chances at getting into the top 4.
#3. UCLA – Oregon should be the pick here, but since Oregon can’t beat Stanford, and since UCLA has Oregon, USC, and Stanford at home, I’m giving the nod to UCLA in the PAC-12. They do have tough games at ASU and Washington, but they’ll also pick up a bit of non-con credibility with Texas and Virginia on the schedule. Besides, you gotta have a Jim Mora (in this case, Junior) involved if we’re talking “PLAYOFFS???? Don’t talk about playoffs!.......Playoffs???”
#4. Alabama – For one second Alabama was looking like a three peat, and the next second they had their hearts ripped out by Auburn. And, I agree with Saban; they didn’t care about the bowl game against Oklahoma, so that outcome means nothing to the Tide. A couple things to keep in mind – two of their three most recent championships came with 1st year QB’s (so the loss of McCarron isn’t huge) and three times in the last five years Alabama wasn’t the preseason #1 (of course they went on to win it all those three years). But, the SEC West is stacked again as usual, so it’s a good thing Alabama’s non-con is West Virginia, Florida Atlantic, Southern Miss, and Western Carolina.
#5. Oregon – This may be Oregon’s best all-around team yet, but until they can beat Stanford, they’re going to have a hard time getting into the Top-4. The week 2 test against Michigan State will surely show us if they’re able to win a physical, grind-it-out game, because that’s exactly what Sparty is going to try to do.
#6. Michigan State – If, and it’s a big if, Michigan State can go to Autzen in week 2 and win against Oregon, they should be able to sneak into the Top 4. Ohio State is crushed with the loss of Miller, and they don’t have to play Wisconsin. They basically just have to beat Nebraska at home (and we all know how poor Nebraska has been on the road in Big 10 play).
#7. Auburn – Teams have had all off-season to prepare for Gus Malzahn’s unique offense that almost sprung the Tiger’s from unranked to National Champs last year. But their schedule is brutal: seven ranked teams, and then a potential SEC Championship and playoff semi-final before getting to play for a National Championship again. Yeah, not gonna happen.
#8. South Carolina – A team that just seems to get a bit better every year, South Carolina has high hopes that this is finally the year they win the SEC. We’ll certainly know if they have a shot right away – before October hits they’ll have played three ranked teams. Of all the teams out there, a four team playoff may benefit South Carolina the most; they may not even need to play in the SEC Championship to sneak into the Top 4.
#9. Baylor – If Oklahoma doesn’t win the Big 12, Baylor should. The highest scoring team in the country has a cakewalk of a schedule, and while I mentioned earlier the Big 12 doesn’t benefit from a Conference Championship game; the final week does give us a default Big 12 four team playoff with Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State and Baylor v. Kansas State.
#10. Wisconsin – Speaking of favorable schedules, after LSU on August 30th, Wisconsin doesn’t play another ranked team until Nebraska on November 15th. And they completely avoid Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State. If Wisconsin can roll through LSU in week 1, they could be a team that sneaks into #4.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – They don’t like giving the Heisman to the same person twice. The expectations are just too high. So, Winston is out. Mariota is in for one big reason: week 2 versus Michigan State. If he (and Oregon) shines in that game, Mariota can cruise to the Heisman.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 South Carolina
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama
Wait, I’ve South Carolina at #8 in my poll, but #4 in my playoff seeds? Yep. Remember, the committee will largely throw poll position out the window in making their Top 4 selections.
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – just too many weapons for FSU, and it would be interesting if FSU repeats and starts their own dynasty by beating Alabama.
Week 1 Big Games:
Texas A&M @ South Carolina – This may be the year South Carolina finally wins the SEC. And, A&M is ranked mainly because of their laurels or the last two years. Their defense is still horrible, and their offense won’t be able to score enough to win any shootouts. Vegas agrees and has South Carolina as double digit favorites. South Carolina 31 Texas A&M 17.
Clemson @ Georgia – No Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins for Clemson, and no Aaron Murray for Georgia, but yet again we have an intriguing opening match-up with Clemson and Georgia. Clemson is off an 11 win season last year, but lost a lot key players. Georgia never seems to start the season well, mainly because they seem to play some giants every year early on. Georgia’s defense will be better this, not great; but still better. And Clemson’s offense will go through some growing pains without Boyd and Watkins. And, it’s in Athens. That’s enough to give the nod to Georgia 38 to 23.
Week 1 Game of the Week:
Wisconsin @ LSU – Lots of defense and power running in this matchup of Top 15 teams. Wisconsin has an eye on the Big 12 Championship and LSU is hoping to escape out of the SEC West. But, both need a win here to have an early advantage at one of the four playoff seeds. Both teams are pretty evenly matched, however, I’ll give the nod to LSU for a couple reasons: 1) SEC over Big 10 pretty much any day, 2) Wisconsin struggled last year in close games (and this one will be close), and 3) under Les Miles, LSU is undefeated against ranked non-con opponents, and this is the fourth year out of five that LSU has opened with a ranked non-con opponent. Let’s take LSU, down to the wire: 24-21.
Until next time…
So, with only a couple days to go until the 2014-2015 kick-off, college football is back, and the Autumn Wind is back for its 8th season. In this preseason edition, I’ll list my top things to watch for this year; I’ll offer up my games of the week; and my pre-season Top-10, why they’ll win it, and why they won’t. We’ll also get into the four team playoff, and how it’s a guarantee that the SEC will take two of those spots. I’ll pick the conference winners, Heisman winner, playoff participants, and national champs. A few rants and raves will follow, and I’ll try not bore you with details of how bad this season will be for Notre Dame – academic investigations/suspensions, one of the worst schedules in the nation (Vegas had their win total O/U at 7.5, and that was pre-suspensions) and loss of many key weapons on offense and defense. It’s going to be a long Autumn in South Bend.
For year 8 of the Autumn Wind (and for what really should be an eight team playoff), let’s look at the top 8 things to watch for this season.
Top-8 Things to Watch for This Season
1. The first year of the four team playoff is going to dominate the discussion this year. I already don’t like it, and the season hasn’t even started yet. Why? Well, I think Stanford’s coach says it best when he talks about the inequalities in scheduling within the major conferences. Some play everyone in their conference, most don’t; many have a conference championship, some don’t; some sprinkle in a bunch of gimme’s in their non-conference play; others at least try to schedule some quality non-conference games (which of course is tough to predict many years out how quality those games will be when they actually arrive). But most of all – six major conferences (well, five; we don’t really count the Big E….errr, AAC) and only four spots in the playoffs. That means, at best – and I’ll say it again, at best; one of the major conference champions won’t get into the playoff. And, this year particularly, I think there’s only two spots available, as the SEC champions is obviously in, and I believe the SEC will get a second team in the Top 4. Sure, the argument is that the playoff is designed to put the top four teams in regardless of conference, but it’s just not right that one, two, or even three major conference champions won’t make the playoff. But hey, they’ve got until 2025 to figure this all out, so let’s just have fun with it.
2. While the SEC is clearly the #1 conference still, the PAC-12 continues to rise. We all know about Stanford and Oregon. But, they may not even win the conference. UCLA is the top dog right now, and Washington, USC, and ASU are all on the rise as well. Now, let’s just forget about Washington State, Colorado, and Utah…
3. Ohio State was in most people’s Top 5, but with the loss of their Heisman candidate QB, there is serious doubt as to how Ohio State will perform. They’re certainly talented enough all over the place to win games even with a new QB, but their schedule isn’t going to do them any favors. They only have one ranked team on the schedule: @ Michigan State. Their non-con is Navy, Virginia Tech, Kent State, and Cincinnati (that’s one reference, Ryan); certainly not going to get them many points from the committee. So, basically, their season comes down to the Michigan State game. If they can scrap together an undefeated season, they will be in the Top 4, but of all the teams out there, they have the littlest room for error.
4. I take that back. Marshall has the littlest room for error. There’s talk that they’ll run the table and make a play for #4, but that’s just not going to happen. I hope they go undefeated and have a great season, I really do. But they play no one. Literally. I think their toughest game is FIU. Even if every other team in the country has two losses, Marshall doesn’t deserve to be in the Top 4. Put them in a bowl game against someone from a power conference, but don’t waste a spot in the playoff on them. The difference between the NCAA basketball tourney (where we all love a Cinderella making a run to the Sweet 16, or even Elite 8, or occasionally Final Four) and football is the Cinderalla’s don’t belong in a four team playoff. Before the “but what about Boise State over Oklahoma?” talk starts, remember that Boise was a helluva team that year and Oklahoma was overrated (and Boise was actually ranked higher than OU in that game).
5. For major conference predictions, I like Alabama beating South Carolina to take the SEC, Michigan State clawing it out against Wisconsin to win the Big 10, Florida State over North Carolina the ACC, UCLA over Oregon in the PAC-12, and Oklahoma in the Big 12.
6. I know this year is the last scheduled game between Notre Dame and Michigan. And I know that Notre Dame probably won’t ever join a conference, even though they’re now trending away from a Big 10 dominated schedule to an ACC dominated schedule. And, they’ll always retain Navy, USC, and Stanford on the schedule. But dammit, find a way to make that Michigan-Notre Dame game a permanent annual game. Frankly, college football is just better when that game is always on the schedule every year.
7. It’ll be interesting to watch how some of the big name coaches perform at their new schools: Charlie Strong at Texas, Sarkisian at USC, Bobby Petrino back to Louisville again, and Chris Petersen moving over from Boise State to Washington. But, the most intriguing move I’ll be watching is Lame Kiffin as the offensive coordinator at Alabama. It’s no secret I’m not a fan of Kiffin, mainly because he’s been an over paid under achiever living off the laurels of his dad and the promise of success when he never sticks around to see it through (mainly because he gets run out of town within a year or two, with a fat wallet). But, as horrible as he is, well was, as a head coach either in college or the NFL, he is a very good offense mind, and when plugged into the right situation, he should excel. And if anyone knows how to plug people into the right situation, it’s Nick Saban. Perfect timing too, with a full stable of running backs to provide a little relief to a new QB at Alabama.
8. It was nearly seven years ago when Appalachian State upset then #5 Michigan in the Big House, and lost the following week to Oregon. Notre Dame was upset by Georgia Tech in week 1, and destroyed by Penn State in week 2. That marked the first time ever in this history of college football that both Michigan and Notre Dame started the season 0-2, and marked the first time since 1909 that both Michigan and Notre Dame were unranked when they played. Those two weeks and what transpired were what spawned what we now know at the Autumn Wind. The last couple of years I keep swearing up and down that I’m done with this blog, but then I get the itch again right before the season starts. Let’s enjoy the ride once again!
Games of the Week
Week 1: Wisconsin v. LSU – Huge implications for strength of schedule points for later in the season. But both are still going to need to win their conferences if they want to get into the playoff.
Week 2: Michigan State @ Oregon – It’s like the Rose Bowl. In September. In Oregon.
Week 3: Georgia @ South Carolina – It’s like the SEC East semifinal.
Week 4: Clemson @ Florida State – FSU’s only major test of the year, and they’ll probably be a 16.5 point favorite.
Week 5: UCLA @ ASU – Big road test for UCLA. It’ll still be hot in the desert.
Week 6: LSU @ Auburn – Both need a win to keep their hopes alive in the NFL Southeast, I mean SEC West.
Week 7: Oregon @ UCLA – Preview of the PAC-12 Championship?
Week 8: Texas A&M @ Alabama – No Johnny Football, but let’s not forget how much Saban hated these games the last two years, even though Alabama won last year.
Week 9: South Carolina @ Auburn – Will South Carolina be fighting to stay on top in the SEC or just fighting to play spoiler?
Week 10: Stanford @ Oregon – Can the Trees make it three in a row over the Ducks?
Week 11: Alabama @ LSU – Always one of the most entertaining and competitive games of the year. It usually plays like an NFL game.
Week 12: Auburn @ Georgia – Bulldogs usually peak late. A victory here keeps them in contention for both the SEC and the playoff.
Week 13: USC @ UCLA – UCLA has owned USC recently. They’ll need for that to continue to win the PAC-12 and get to the playoff.
Week 14: Auburn @ Alabama – Iron Bowl. ‘Nuff said.
Week 15: Kansas State @ Baylor – Will they be playing for second place in the Big 12, or for a shot at the playoff?
The Pre-Season Top-10
#1. Florida State – No brainer here; the National Champs return their Heisman trophy QB, and they’ll be double digit favorites in every game this year. They only have two preseason ranked teams (Clemson and Notre Dame), and both are at home (as is the end of season matchup against Florida). Assuming they don’t lose @ NC State following the Clemson game, Florida State should roll into the playoff as the #1 seed.
#2. Oklahoma – Fourteen returning starters, a favorable schedule (both Kansas State and Baylor @ home), and a lot of momentum after knocking around Alabama in their bowl game last year propel Oklahoma into #2. We’ll also get to see if the Big-12 not having a conference championship game helps or hurts their chances at getting into the top 4.
#3. UCLA – Oregon should be the pick here, but since Oregon can’t beat Stanford, and since UCLA has Oregon, USC, and Stanford at home, I’m giving the nod to UCLA in the PAC-12. They do have tough games at ASU and Washington, but they’ll also pick up a bit of non-con credibility with Texas and Virginia on the schedule. Besides, you gotta have a Jim Mora (in this case, Junior) involved if we’re talking “PLAYOFFS???? Don’t talk about playoffs!.......Playoffs???”
#4. Alabama – For one second Alabama was looking like a three peat, and the next second they had their hearts ripped out by Auburn. And, I agree with Saban; they didn’t care about the bowl game against Oklahoma, so that outcome means nothing to the Tide. A couple things to keep in mind – two of their three most recent championships came with 1st year QB’s (so the loss of McCarron isn’t huge) and three times in the last five years Alabama wasn’t the preseason #1 (of course they went on to win it all those three years). But, the SEC West is stacked again as usual, so it’s a good thing Alabama’s non-con is West Virginia, Florida Atlantic, Southern Miss, and Western Carolina.
#5. Oregon – This may be Oregon’s best all-around team yet, but until they can beat Stanford, they’re going to have a hard time getting into the Top-4. The week 2 test against Michigan State will surely show us if they’re able to win a physical, grind-it-out game, because that’s exactly what Sparty is going to try to do.
#6. Michigan State – If, and it’s a big if, Michigan State can go to Autzen in week 2 and win against Oregon, they should be able to sneak into the Top 4. Ohio State is crushed with the loss of Miller, and they don’t have to play Wisconsin. They basically just have to beat Nebraska at home (and we all know how poor Nebraska has been on the road in Big 10 play).
#7. Auburn – Teams have had all off-season to prepare for Gus Malzahn’s unique offense that almost sprung the Tiger’s from unranked to National Champs last year. But their schedule is brutal: seven ranked teams, and then a potential SEC Championship and playoff semi-final before getting to play for a National Championship again. Yeah, not gonna happen.
#8. South Carolina – A team that just seems to get a bit better every year, South Carolina has high hopes that this is finally the year they win the SEC. We’ll certainly know if they have a shot right away – before October hits they’ll have played three ranked teams. Of all the teams out there, a four team playoff may benefit South Carolina the most; they may not even need to play in the SEC Championship to sneak into the Top 4.
#9. Baylor – If Oklahoma doesn’t win the Big 12, Baylor should. The highest scoring team in the country has a cakewalk of a schedule, and while I mentioned earlier the Big 12 doesn’t benefit from a Conference Championship game; the final week does give us a default Big 12 four team playoff with Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State and Baylor v. Kansas State.
#10. Wisconsin – Speaking of favorable schedules, after LSU on August 30th, Wisconsin doesn’t play another ranked team until Nebraska on November 15th. And they completely avoid Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State. If Wisconsin can roll through LSU in week 1, they could be a team that sneaks into #4.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – They don’t like giving the Heisman to the same person twice. The expectations are just too high. So, Winston is out. Mariota is in for one big reason: week 2 versus Michigan State. If he (and Oregon) shines in that game, Mariota can cruise to the Heisman.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 South Carolina
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama
Wait, I’ve South Carolina at #8 in my poll, but #4 in my playoff seeds? Yep. Remember, the committee will largely throw poll position out the window in making their Top 4 selections.
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – just too many weapons for FSU, and it would be interesting if FSU repeats and starts their own dynasty by beating Alabama.
Week 1 Big Games:
Texas A&M @ South Carolina – This may be the year South Carolina finally wins the SEC. And, A&M is ranked mainly because of their laurels or the last two years. Their defense is still horrible, and their offense won’t be able to score enough to win any shootouts. Vegas agrees and has South Carolina as double digit favorites. South Carolina 31 Texas A&M 17.
Clemson @ Georgia – No Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins for Clemson, and no Aaron Murray for Georgia, but yet again we have an intriguing opening match-up with Clemson and Georgia. Clemson is off an 11 win season last year, but lost a lot key players. Georgia never seems to start the season well, mainly because they seem to play some giants every year early on. Georgia’s defense will be better this, not great; but still better. And Clemson’s offense will go through some growing pains without Boyd and Watkins. And, it’s in Athens. That’s enough to give the nod to Georgia 38 to 23.
Week 1 Game of the Week:
Wisconsin @ LSU – Lots of defense and power running in this matchup of Top 15 teams. Wisconsin has an eye on the Big 12 Championship and LSU is hoping to escape out of the SEC West. But, both need a win here to have an early advantage at one of the four playoff seeds. Both teams are pretty evenly matched, however, I’ll give the nod to LSU for a couple reasons: 1) SEC over Big 10 pretty much any day, 2) Wisconsin struggled last year in close games (and this one will be close), and 3) under Les Miles, LSU is undefeated against ranked non-con opponents, and this is the fourth year out of five that LSU has opened with a ranked non-con opponent. Let’s take LSU, down to the wire: 24-21.
Until next time…
Monday, December 30, 2013
Bowl Preview Edition - Part II
And here’s part duex of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview Edition! Enjoy!
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPN2
Georgia v. Nebraska
The first bowl game of 2014 gives us a rematch of a bowl game from last season. Georgia is beaten up and Pelini keeps begging Nebraska to fire him. Both teams played a ton of close games this year, including several that weren’t decided until the final minutes (and how different of a bowl picture are we seeing if Auburn doesn’t beat Georgia on that bizarre hail mary?). So, look for a close game here. In these cases I always have to pick the SEC over the Big 10. Sorry Nebraska.
Gambling angle: The SEC has beaten the Big 10 in three straight here, but underdogs have also covered two out of the last three. I like Georgia to win, but not by nine; let’s take Nebraska +9 and the over 60.5 as both defenses have struggled all year.
Heart of Dallas Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPNU
North Texas v. UNLV
Last year we were graced with Oklahoma State and Purdue in the “Used to be Ticket City Bowl” and now we get North Texas and UNLV? Yikes. And it’s in the time slot competing with Georgia/Nebraska, which means no one will watch it. North Texas is pretty much at home, so they’ll win this one.
Gambling angle: No strong trends here for such a young bowl game, so I like North Texas -6.5 and the under 54.5.
Outback Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ESPN
LSU v. Iowa
The Outback Bowl is turning into one of my favorite bowls of the year. It always matches up Big 10 versus SEC teams. But top tier teams from each conference, not the stragglers that the Gator Bowl and others get. And, usually on paper the SEC team is supposed to be the dominant team. But looking back 20+ years, the SEC is only 12-9 against the Big 10 here. And remember Michigan State’s shocking upset of Georgia two years ago and Michigan’s near upset of South Carolina last year? LSU and injured and deflated, and Iowa surprised all with an eight win season. I’m smelling an upset here…
Gambling angle: The Big-10 has covered or tied the spread eight of the last 11 Outback bowls (as it’s usually a motivated Big-10 team and an unmotivated SEC team), so I like Iowa +7.5 the under 49.
Capital One Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ABC
South Carolina v. Wisconsin
Another good Big 10/SEC match up here, with solid defenses and smash mouth offenses. After the unexpected loss @ Tennessee, South Carolina has rattled off five straight wins, including victories against #5 Missouri and #6 Clemson. Wisconsin’s three losses were really only two (@ Ohio State and v. Penn State) as they should’ve beaten ASU on the road if the refs don’t blow it. If they do make that chip shot field goal, they’re probably closer to a Top-10 ranking. South Carolina is only giving up 20 points a game and Wisconsin on 15, so points will be at a premium. South Carolina has the momentum, and in a Big 10/SEC match up, I usually will pick the SEC, especially if it’s a hungry team. South Carolina by a FG.
Gambling angle: Five of the last eight have played under, and that seems appropriate with these defenses, so I like the under 51. The game is a pick ‘em, and I gotta go with South Carolina.
Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO – Jan. 1, 5:00pm EST ESPN
Michigan State v. Stanford
The 100th Rose Bowl takes place this year, and with these two teams, it looks similar to the matchup from 100 years ago. Points will be at a premium, but off-tackle right FB dives will not be. Stanford’s style lends itself to close games, and Michigan State’s defense is about the best in the land so this will be a close, low scoring game. I still don’t know how/why Stanford lost to Utah, but Stanford beat Notre Dame and Notre Dame beat Michigan State. That’s enough for me to pick the Cardinal in this one.
Gambling angle: The Big 10 has only won this game once since 2000, but the last three have been close, decided by a total of 15 points. Favorites tend to do well in Pasadena, so I like Stanford -4.5 and the under 42.5.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl – Jan. 1, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Baylor v. UCF
How many had Baylor and UCF in their preseason prediction for the Fiesta Bowl? Thought so. UCF comes in after winning the AAC, and their only loss was by a FG to South Carolina. But, the problem is, they had several other close calls; seven of their wins were decided by seven or less. That won’t bode well against the #1 offense in the country. Baylor, in a rout.
Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered four of the last six Fiesta Bowls, but the two that didn’t cover were when Kansas State was overmatched with Oregon last year and UConn got stuck with Oklahoma a couple years ago. Even though Baylor’s spread is the highest of the bowls this year, I like them to light things up. Baylor -16.5 and the over 68 is the play here.
Allstate Sugar Bowl – Jan. 2, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Alabama v. Oklahoma
After two years of bad match-ups, the Sugar Bowl gets a dream pairing of Alabama and Oklahoma. Alabama should be playing for the National Championship (again) and Oklahoma rebounded after the embarrassing loss to Baylor with their upset over Oklahoma State in the final game of the year to grab an at-large BCS bid. Alabama is a huge favorite, and rightfully so, but you do have to remember the last time an Alabama team wound up in the Sugar Bowl after a heartbreaking loss to close the season. Utah smacked them upside the head in the 2009 Sugar Bowl, winning 31-17. But, the Texas rumors are kaput, and Saban needs a win here to keep the recruiting train running through Tuscaloosa. Speaking of running, Alabama is 45-1 under A.J. McCarron when they rush for 125+ yards and only 4-5 when they don’t, so look for a steady dose of T.J. Yeldon and company. And, this will be the best defense that Oklahoma faces by far, much better than the Texas and Baylor defenses that held Oklahoma to 20 and 12 points in their two losses. ‘Bama wins in a rout.
Gambling angle: 15 is a lot of points to give up, but I’ll do it. Alabama -15 and the under 51.5 as the Tide defense will limit Oklahoma to less than 20 points.
AT&T Cotton Bowl – Jan. 3, 7:30pm EST FOX
Missouri v. Oklahoma State
Old Big 12 foes are at it again in the Cotton Bowl, following up last year’s match up of Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Missouri was the surprise in the SEC this year, and Oklahoma State once again blew a chance at the Big 12 Championship by losing Bedlam (again). Missouri, despite coming out of nowhere, is still one of the most underrated teams in the country, losing only that double O.T. thriller against South Carolina and keeping it pretty darn close against the buzz saw that is Auburn this year. Oklahoma State will score, but they won’t be able to score enough to overcome the Tigers. I like Missouri in a shootout.
Gambling angle: The SEC is 9-1 straight up over the Big-12 in this game. That will continue, and I like Missouri -1 and the over has hit two out of the last three here, so I gotta take the over 60.5 with these two offenses.
Discover Orange Bowl – Jan. 3, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Ohio State v. Clemson
Ohio State was one win away from a National Championship and Clemson lost the only two real games they played all year. It’s going to be hard to motivate the Buckeyes, who slipped up against the Spartans in the Big 10 Championship game. There will be lots of offense in this one, and we get to watch Boyd to Watkins one final time. I like Clemson to win this one, if for no other reason than I hate Ohio State.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 7-3 against the spread and the under has hit eight out of 11, and with good reason. Some overvalued BCS teams against some undervalued opponents. Let’s take Clemson +2.5 and the under 67.5.
BBVA Compass Bowl – Jan. 4, 1:00pm EST ESPN
Houston v. Vanderbilt
After 33 games we get Houston and Vanderbilt on January 4th? At least it’s a Saturday and there’s probably something else to do. Vandy’s QB is hurt, and Houston led the nation in turnover margin and takeaways. Houston gets the W.
Gambling angle: Let’s take Houston +3 and the under 54 (again, only because I’m picking lines and O/U’s on every game).
GoDaddy Bowl – Jan. 5, 9:00pm EST ESPN
Ball State v. Arkansas State
They should just change the name of this bowl to the Arkansas State bowl, as this is their third straight visit here. Ball State won 10 games for just the third time in school history, but is 0-7-1 in bowl games. If you’re not doing anything on this Sunday night, go ahead and watch Ball State win their first bowl game.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 8-1-2 against the spread in this game, so let’s look to Ball State -9 and the under 63.5.
Discover BCS National Championship – Jan. 6, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Florida State v. Auburn
The BCS comes to a close, and while Auburn may be the team of destiny, in order to win, they need to defeat a Florida State team that won all of its games by an average score of 53-10 and finished 2nd in the country in scoring and 1st in points allowed (a very rare thing). Auburn needed some magic to get here, the improbable wins in the closing moments against Georgia and Alabama; and then knocking off a very good Missouri team in the SEC Championship. On paper, FSU wins in a rout (especially with how suspect Auburn’s defense is), but there are several factors to consider here, even outside of the destiny talk. FSU hasn’t faced a rushing attack like Auburn. In fact, the one very strong rushing team that FSU played, Boston College, kept it pretty close. FSU didn’t play another close game. How will they do when Auburn not only matches them blow-for-blow early on, but then frustrates the FSU offense by keeping the FSU defense on the field for long drives? Auburn is battle tested and knows how to win close games, but FSU is not. And, of course you can’t ignore the SEC’s 7-game BCS Championship winning streak. And finally, check out these numbers: in the last 10 years the BCS Championship has been played between an undefeated team and a one loss team three times and the one loss team is 3-0, winning all three by 20+ points. And FSU’s strength of schedule is the lowest of any championship team in the last ten years. The three previous lowest (2006 Ohio State, 2007 Ohio State, and 2009 Texas) all lost to SEC teams by more than 14 points. But, the month off will benefit Florida State more than Auburn (who’s relying on a ton of momentum), and Auburn’s Achilles heel is its defense. They’ll score on FSU, but can they hold FSU to under 50? I don’t think so. FSU wins the final BCS Championship, but it comes down to the wire: FSU 52 Auburn 45.
Gambling angle: The SEC is 7-0 straight up and against the spread here, so gotta stick with that (at least for the spread). Auburn +8.5 and the over 67.
Well, that’s it for 2013’s college football season! From all of the editors, statisticians, researchers, and other contributors at the Autumn Wind (oh wait – it’s just me): Happy New Year!
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPN2
Georgia v. Nebraska
The first bowl game of 2014 gives us a rematch of a bowl game from last season. Georgia is beaten up and Pelini keeps begging Nebraska to fire him. Both teams played a ton of close games this year, including several that weren’t decided until the final minutes (and how different of a bowl picture are we seeing if Auburn doesn’t beat Georgia on that bizarre hail mary?). So, look for a close game here. In these cases I always have to pick the SEC over the Big 10. Sorry Nebraska.
Gambling angle: The SEC has beaten the Big 10 in three straight here, but underdogs have also covered two out of the last three. I like Georgia to win, but not by nine; let’s take Nebraska +9 and the over 60.5 as both defenses have struggled all year.
Heart of Dallas Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPNU
North Texas v. UNLV
Last year we were graced with Oklahoma State and Purdue in the “Used to be Ticket City Bowl” and now we get North Texas and UNLV? Yikes. And it’s in the time slot competing with Georgia/Nebraska, which means no one will watch it. North Texas is pretty much at home, so they’ll win this one.
Gambling angle: No strong trends here for such a young bowl game, so I like North Texas -6.5 and the under 54.5.
Outback Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ESPN
LSU v. Iowa
The Outback Bowl is turning into one of my favorite bowls of the year. It always matches up Big 10 versus SEC teams. But top tier teams from each conference, not the stragglers that the Gator Bowl and others get. And, usually on paper the SEC team is supposed to be the dominant team. But looking back 20+ years, the SEC is only 12-9 against the Big 10 here. And remember Michigan State’s shocking upset of Georgia two years ago and Michigan’s near upset of South Carolina last year? LSU and injured and deflated, and Iowa surprised all with an eight win season. I’m smelling an upset here…
Gambling angle: The Big-10 has covered or tied the spread eight of the last 11 Outback bowls (as it’s usually a motivated Big-10 team and an unmotivated SEC team), so I like Iowa +7.5 the under 49.
Capital One Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ABC
South Carolina v. Wisconsin
Another good Big 10/SEC match up here, with solid defenses and smash mouth offenses. After the unexpected loss @ Tennessee, South Carolina has rattled off five straight wins, including victories against #5 Missouri and #6 Clemson. Wisconsin’s three losses were really only two (@ Ohio State and v. Penn State) as they should’ve beaten ASU on the road if the refs don’t blow it. If they do make that chip shot field goal, they’re probably closer to a Top-10 ranking. South Carolina is only giving up 20 points a game and Wisconsin on 15, so points will be at a premium. South Carolina has the momentum, and in a Big 10/SEC match up, I usually will pick the SEC, especially if it’s a hungry team. South Carolina by a FG.
Gambling angle: Five of the last eight have played under, and that seems appropriate with these defenses, so I like the under 51. The game is a pick ‘em, and I gotta go with South Carolina.
Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO – Jan. 1, 5:00pm EST ESPN
Michigan State v. Stanford
The 100th Rose Bowl takes place this year, and with these two teams, it looks similar to the matchup from 100 years ago. Points will be at a premium, but off-tackle right FB dives will not be. Stanford’s style lends itself to close games, and Michigan State’s defense is about the best in the land so this will be a close, low scoring game. I still don’t know how/why Stanford lost to Utah, but Stanford beat Notre Dame and Notre Dame beat Michigan State. That’s enough for me to pick the Cardinal in this one.
Gambling angle: The Big 10 has only won this game once since 2000, but the last three have been close, decided by a total of 15 points. Favorites tend to do well in Pasadena, so I like Stanford -4.5 and the under 42.5.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl – Jan. 1, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Baylor v. UCF
How many had Baylor and UCF in their preseason prediction for the Fiesta Bowl? Thought so. UCF comes in after winning the AAC, and their only loss was by a FG to South Carolina. But, the problem is, they had several other close calls; seven of their wins were decided by seven or less. That won’t bode well against the #1 offense in the country. Baylor, in a rout.
Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered four of the last six Fiesta Bowls, but the two that didn’t cover were when Kansas State was overmatched with Oregon last year and UConn got stuck with Oklahoma a couple years ago. Even though Baylor’s spread is the highest of the bowls this year, I like them to light things up. Baylor -16.5 and the over 68 is the play here.
Allstate Sugar Bowl – Jan. 2, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Alabama v. Oklahoma
After two years of bad match-ups, the Sugar Bowl gets a dream pairing of Alabama and Oklahoma. Alabama should be playing for the National Championship (again) and Oklahoma rebounded after the embarrassing loss to Baylor with their upset over Oklahoma State in the final game of the year to grab an at-large BCS bid. Alabama is a huge favorite, and rightfully so, but you do have to remember the last time an Alabama team wound up in the Sugar Bowl after a heartbreaking loss to close the season. Utah smacked them upside the head in the 2009 Sugar Bowl, winning 31-17. But, the Texas rumors are kaput, and Saban needs a win here to keep the recruiting train running through Tuscaloosa. Speaking of running, Alabama is 45-1 under A.J. McCarron when they rush for 125+ yards and only 4-5 when they don’t, so look for a steady dose of T.J. Yeldon and company. And, this will be the best defense that Oklahoma faces by far, much better than the Texas and Baylor defenses that held Oklahoma to 20 and 12 points in their two losses. ‘Bama wins in a rout.
Gambling angle: 15 is a lot of points to give up, but I’ll do it. Alabama -15 and the under 51.5 as the Tide defense will limit Oklahoma to less than 20 points.
AT&T Cotton Bowl – Jan. 3, 7:30pm EST FOX
Missouri v. Oklahoma State
Old Big 12 foes are at it again in the Cotton Bowl, following up last year’s match up of Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Missouri was the surprise in the SEC this year, and Oklahoma State once again blew a chance at the Big 12 Championship by losing Bedlam (again). Missouri, despite coming out of nowhere, is still one of the most underrated teams in the country, losing only that double O.T. thriller against South Carolina and keeping it pretty darn close against the buzz saw that is Auburn this year. Oklahoma State will score, but they won’t be able to score enough to overcome the Tigers. I like Missouri in a shootout.
Gambling angle: The SEC is 9-1 straight up over the Big-12 in this game. That will continue, and I like Missouri -1 and the over has hit two out of the last three here, so I gotta take the over 60.5 with these two offenses.
Discover Orange Bowl – Jan. 3, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Ohio State v. Clemson
Ohio State was one win away from a National Championship and Clemson lost the only two real games they played all year. It’s going to be hard to motivate the Buckeyes, who slipped up against the Spartans in the Big 10 Championship game. There will be lots of offense in this one, and we get to watch Boyd to Watkins one final time. I like Clemson to win this one, if for no other reason than I hate Ohio State.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 7-3 against the spread and the under has hit eight out of 11, and with good reason. Some overvalued BCS teams against some undervalued opponents. Let’s take Clemson +2.5 and the under 67.5.
BBVA Compass Bowl – Jan. 4, 1:00pm EST ESPN
Houston v. Vanderbilt
After 33 games we get Houston and Vanderbilt on January 4th? At least it’s a Saturday and there’s probably something else to do. Vandy’s QB is hurt, and Houston led the nation in turnover margin and takeaways. Houston gets the W.
Gambling angle: Let’s take Houston +3 and the under 54 (again, only because I’m picking lines and O/U’s on every game).
GoDaddy Bowl – Jan. 5, 9:00pm EST ESPN
Ball State v. Arkansas State
They should just change the name of this bowl to the Arkansas State bowl, as this is their third straight visit here. Ball State won 10 games for just the third time in school history, but is 0-7-1 in bowl games. If you’re not doing anything on this Sunday night, go ahead and watch Ball State win their first bowl game.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 8-1-2 against the spread in this game, so let’s look to Ball State -9 and the under 63.5.
Discover BCS National Championship – Jan. 6, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Florida State v. Auburn
The BCS comes to a close, and while Auburn may be the team of destiny, in order to win, they need to defeat a Florida State team that won all of its games by an average score of 53-10 and finished 2nd in the country in scoring and 1st in points allowed (a very rare thing). Auburn needed some magic to get here, the improbable wins in the closing moments against Georgia and Alabama; and then knocking off a very good Missouri team in the SEC Championship. On paper, FSU wins in a rout (especially with how suspect Auburn’s defense is), but there are several factors to consider here, even outside of the destiny talk. FSU hasn’t faced a rushing attack like Auburn. In fact, the one very strong rushing team that FSU played, Boston College, kept it pretty close. FSU didn’t play another close game. How will they do when Auburn not only matches them blow-for-blow early on, but then frustrates the FSU offense by keeping the FSU defense on the field for long drives? Auburn is battle tested and knows how to win close games, but FSU is not. And, of course you can’t ignore the SEC’s 7-game BCS Championship winning streak. And finally, check out these numbers: in the last 10 years the BCS Championship has been played between an undefeated team and a one loss team three times and the one loss team is 3-0, winning all three by 20+ points. And FSU’s strength of schedule is the lowest of any championship team in the last ten years. The three previous lowest (2006 Ohio State, 2007 Ohio State, and 2009 Texas) all lost to SEC teams by more than 14 points. But, the month off will benefit Florida State more than Auburn (who’s relying on a ton of momentum), and Auburn’s Achilles heel is its defense. They’ll score on FSU, but can they hold FSU to under 50? I don’t think so. FSU wins the final BCS Championship, but it comes down to the wire: FSU 52 Auburn 45.
Gambling angle: The SEC is 7-0 straight up and against the spread here, so gotta stick with that (at least for the spread). Auburn +8.5 and the over 67.
Well, that’s it for 2013’s college football season! From all of the editors, statisticians, researchers, and other contributors at the Autumn Wind (oh wait – it’s just me): Happy New Year!
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Bowl Preview Edition - Part I
Here’s Part I of the 7th annual edition of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview. I’ll break ‘em all down: 35 bowls, 70 teams, starting December 21st and ending January 6th, including some very intriguing match-ups in non-BCS bowls. Here’s the games, dates, times, TV coverage, and angles (for entertainment purposes only) up to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on December 31st. I’ll post the update for the real bowl games next week. Enjoy the last few weeks of the 2013-2014 college football season!
Gildan New Mexico Bowl – Dec. 21, 2:00pm EST ESPN
Washington State v. Colorado State
A couple of teams new to bowls start off the 2012-2013 bowl season, as Colorado State is bowling for the first time since 2008 and Washington State gets in at 6-6 for the first time since 2003. Keep an eye Kapri Bibbs, the running back no one has heard of. He plays for Colorado State and leads the nation with 28 rushing touchdowns. And Washington State’s defense has been torched by some of the stronger rushing teams in the PAC-12 this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Colorado State pulls the upset.
Gambling angle: This is the 8th New Mexico Bowl – and underdogs have not only covered five of the first seven, but won outright in four of those (and Nevada nearly upset UofSuck as a 10-point dog last year). In addition the over has hit in the last five. Let’s look for Colorado State to cover the +4, perhaps winning outright, and even though the over is at 65, I think they’ll get there as Leach’s pass-happy offense will put some points on the board as well.
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl – Dec. 21, 3:30pm EST ABC
Fresno State v. USC
Fresno State was one win away from busting the BCS, and UCS is on their third coach of the year. The match-up here is Fresno’s high powered offense versus UCS’s stingy defense. And, even though Fresno’s defense is horrible, UCS’s offense is just as bad. I’m excited about the game as it’s pretty rare to have a matchup of two ranked teams this early in the bowl season.
Gambling angle: I like Fresno State +6 (and maybe an outright win) and with ten of the last 15 Vegas Bowl’s hitting the under, I like the under 62 as USC’s offense is bad but their defense is going to keep Fresno in check.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Dec. 21, 5:30pm EST ESPN
Buffalo v. San Diego State
Ohio State destroyed San Diego State, but Buffalo played the Buckeyes pretty close. That was back in September though, and things have obviously changes since then. Three of San Diego State’s wins came in overtime, and another two wins were separated by five points or less and they only beat 2-10 Air Force by seven. December in Idaho will favor Buffalo, so let’s go ahead and pick them.
Gambling angle: No strong trends here: underdogs are 4-3-1 against the spread the last eight here, and half of the last six have played to either the over or the under. The game is a pick ‘em, and lets pick Buffalo and the under 63.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Dec. 21, 9:00pm EST ESPN
Tulane v. Louisiana-Lafayette
We should just change the name of this bowl to the Louisiana-Lafayette bowl as they’re making their third straight appearance (also winning the last two). Both teams lost to South Alabama, so take that for what it’s worth. I should like LA-LF at home, but Joe Montana’s kid (Nick) has led a nice turn around for Tulane’s program that’s only in their 4th bowl game in 30 years.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 5-3 in the past eight and six of the past seven have played over the total. The game’s a pick ‘em, so let’s take Tulane and the over 56.
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl – Dec 23, 2:00pm EST ESPN
East Carolina v. Ohio
If you don’t have anything better to do than watch this game, then go ahead and jump off of a cliff. The most interesting part of this game will be the O/U on Beef ‘O’ Brady commercials. Let’s put it at 9.5.
Gambling angle: This is the 6th Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, somehow it still keeps going. Let’s take ECU -13.5 and the over 61.5, not that anyone will be watching.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl – Dec. 24, 8:00pm ESPN
Boise State v. Oregon State
Peterson won’t be coaching the Broncos, focusing on his upcoming job with Washington. That’s gotta favor Oregon State. As usual, there’s going to massive offense in this game (even more so then usual, thanks to two crappy defenses), so I think we’re looking at a shoot-out. Boise State will win this one in a squeaker.
Gambling angle: Boise State opened -3, but now it’s moved to Oregon State -3, Underdogs have won, and covered, four of the past five here, and seven of the last 11 have played over. I like Boise State +3 and the over 65.
Little Caesars Bowl – Dec. 26, 6:00pm EST ESPN
Pittsburgh v. Bowling Green
I like Little Caesars Pizza. That’s about all I’ll say about this game.
Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered five outta six and under total is 9-5 in last 14 Motor City…errrrr, Little Caesars Bowls. Pitt +5.5 and the under 50, I guess.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – Dec. 26, 9:30pm EST ESPN
Utah State v. Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois was one win away from another BCS game, but they stumbled against Bowling Green. On paper, NIU is a much better team than Utah State, but this is the first of those bowls where you’ve gotta wonder if Northern Illinois will show up to play after going from a likely BCS spot to a pre-New Year’s game. And, Utah State may be the best defense that NIU has seen all year. Utah State pulls the upset in a squeaker.
Gambling angle: The Mountain West has won six of the past seven here, so let’s look for that again. Utah State +1.5 and the under 58, as points will be at a premium in this one.
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman – Dec. 27 2:30pm EST ESPN
Marshall v. Maryland
Remember when Maryland was 4-0 and ranked #25? Well, that week they lost to Florida State 63-0 and proceeded to lose four of their next six (winning their only two in that stretch by a total of four points). They did close with a win against ACC winless NC State to finish 7-5, but it’s 9-4 Marshall that comes into this one with all of the momentum. They had won seven of eight before losing to Rice in the Conference USA Championship Game. Marshall is 1st in the nation in passing and 7th in scoring. The problem is they’re defense gives up more than 40/game. The good news is Maryland only scores ~20/game, so I think Marshall comes out on top.
Gambling angle: All five is this bowl’s history have played to the over; so I like the Marshal -2.5 and the over 61.
Texas Bowl – Dec. 27, 6:00pm EST ESPN
Syracuse v. Minnesota
The old Texas Bowl that was the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas is now back to being just the Texas Bowl. Minnesota’s back here again, after given Texas Tech all they could handle last year. And this Gopher team is much better. Syracuse is a middle of the pack ACC team, so you gotta favor Minnesota in this one.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 7-3-2 against the spread in this bowl so let’s take Minnesota -4; and I like the over 47.5 as well as four of the past six played over.
Fight Hunger Bowl – Dec. 27, 9:30pm EST ESPN
BYU v. Washington
I guess Kraft didn’t fight hunger good enough, so it’s just the Fight Hunger Bowl now. Sarkisian is out as he’s the new USC coach, so good ol’ Tuiasosopo will be coaching for Washington. Washington’s only four losses were to ranked PAC-12 teams (Oregon, Stanford, Arizona State, and UCLA), while BYU beat Texas and played Wisconsin and Notre Dame close, but they also lost to Virginia and Utah. Let’s take Washington.
Gambling angle: Let’s look at Washington -3 and the under 58.5.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Dec. 28, 12:00pm EST ESPN
Rutgers v. Notre Dame
Rutgers needed a late win against South Florida to finish 6-6 and get to a bowl. Notre Dame was up and down all season, and just never really regained the “it” they had last year, despite returning most of their starters. Vegas really likes Notre Dame in this one, but as usual, the number is too high. Notre Dame will win, as Rutgers isn’t very good, but it’s going to be an ugly game.
Gambling angle: I’ll take Rutgers +15.5 and the under 52.5.
Belk Bowl – Dec. 28, 3:20pm EST ESPN
Cincinnati v. North Carolina
This would be a great Sweet 16 matchup, but we’re stuck with a football game instead. Cincy rattled off nine wins under Tuberville, and North Carolina bounced back after a 1-5 start to make a bowl. If the New Era Pinstripe Bowl didn’t bore you enough, this one certainly will.
Gambling angle: Cincy won and covered in this game last year, but they’re a 3-point underdog this year against a middle of the road ACC team. I like Cincy +3 and the over 56.5 (if you haven’t figured it out by now, this gambling “advice” is truly for entertainment purposes. Anyone who bets on this game needs to call 1-800-522-4700 immediately.
Russell Athletic Bowl – Dec. 28, 6:45pm ESPN
Miami v. Louisville
Both of these teams had early National Championship hopes before Louisville lost a heartbreaker to eventual AAC Champion UCF and Miami dropped three straight to Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Duke. This is likely Teddy Bridgewater’s last game for Louisville, and he gets to play it very close to where he played his high school ball in Florida. Louisville’s defense is underrated, and it’s kind of a shame that they’re ranked as low as they are for being a one loss team. Miami was exposed mid-season, and they’ll be exposed in this one as well. Louisville wins big in yet another bowl game.
Gambling angle: The ACC is only 3-7 straight up in this game, and the under is 7-1 the past eight. I really like Louisville -3.5 and the under 55.5.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl – Dec. 28, 10:15pm EST ESPN
Michigan v. Kansas State
Michigan stumbles into this bowl, losing five of seven and has an injured QB. And let’s not forget they almost lost to Akron and UConn. Kansas State started poorly, but has won five of their last six (losing only to BCS-at large Oklahoma in a pretty close game). I’d think Kansas State wins this one handily, but they have lost their last five bowl games, and Michigan occasionally performs extremely well (remember the games against Notre Dame and Ohio State?). But, the injury bug will be too much for Michigan to overcome, and Synder is due for a bowl win.
Gambling angle: The over is 8-3 in this last 11 here, and the Big-12 has won five of seven v. Big-10, so I’ll take Kansas State -3.5 and over 55.5
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl – Dec. 30, 11:45am EST ESPN
Middle Tennessee v. Navy
Navy can run the ball and Middle Tennessee cannot stop the run. That’s this one in a nutshell.
Gambling angle: Rice upset Air Force last year, but I don’t see Middle Tennessee figuring out how to stop Navy’s triple option attack, especially with how porous their defense is. Let’s take Navy -6 and the over 55.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Dec. 30, 3:15pm EST ESPN
Ole Miss v. Georgia Tech
A match-up of 7-5 teams in this one. But, one’s from the SEC and the other from ACC. That means the SEC team wins. Don’t forget Ole Miss beat Texas and LSU this year (but do forget they lost to Mississippi State). Georgia Tech’s signature win was over Duke, but that was early in the season, and regardless of how good Duke is this year, it’s never a good thing to have them as your signature win.
Gambling angle: I like Ole Miss -3 (favorites are 6-2-1 the last nine Music City bowls) and since eight of 12 have played under, I like the under 57.
Valero Alamo Bowl – Dec. 30, 6:45pm EST ESPN
Oregon v. Texas
The Big 12 has owned the PAC-12 in recent history in this game which bodes well for Texas. Oregon struggled down the stretch after getting beat down (again) by Stanford, and Texas rebounded nicely after starting slow. This will also be Mack Brown’s final game at the helm for Texas, ending a stellar career that’s been on the slow decline the last couple of years. But, which Oregon team will show up? The National Championship contender, or the team that lost to Stanford and then more or less declared that they didn’t even care about the Rose Bowl (which of course led to another loss)? And, Texas upset Oregon State in this very game last year. But, the Ducks aren’t the Beavers, and this Texas team isn’t as good as last year’s version. I like Oregon in a shootout.
Gambling angle: Trends for both the spread and O/U are pretty even here, so I gotta go with my gut. Oregon will win, but not by 14. I like Texas +14 and the over 67.
National University Holiday Bowl – Dec. 30, 10:15pm EST ESPN
Arizona State v. Texas Tech
Lots of offense in this one, as the teams combine to average more than 90 passes a game. Tech stumbles in at 7-5, losing five straight in the meat of their conference schedule. Whereas, Arizona State comes in with losing to only two teams: Stanford and Notre Dame, and they easily could’ve beaten the Irish. On paper, this should be all Devils, but what scares me is ASU is 0-3 in the Holiday Bowl, and they had their sights set on the Rose Bowl this year. But, they are a much better team, and their offense will cause lots of problems for Tech’s defense which was exposed in their five game skid against Oklahoma (38), Oklahoma State (52), Kansas State (49), Baylor (63), and Texas (41). ASU should get a Holiday Bowl win finally.
Gambling angle: Interesting angle’s here: the PAC-10 doesn’t win (3-9 straight up), but favorites cover (14-3), which is quite the conundrum as ASU is a 14-point favorite. The over 70 looks good (even though it’s the second highest O/U this bowl season), and I’ll lean towards ASU winning, but Tech covering the +14.
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – Dec. 31, 12:30pm EST ESPN
Arizona v. Boston College
Two of the best running backs in the country face off in this one, and I’m sure you’ll hear the announcers say that a dozen or so times. Boston College’s claim to fame this year was only losing to Florida State by 14. UofSuck’s claim to fame was beating Oregon. They both lost to USC, though BC lost worse. That’s enough for me to pick UofSuck.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 7-3 against the spread and the four of the last five here played under. So let’s take UofSuck -7.5 and under 57 as the clock’s going to move quick in this one.
Hyundai Sun Bowl – Dec. 31, 2:00pm EST CBS
Virginia Tech v. UCLA
UCLA’s offense versus Virginia Tech’s defense will be the highlight here. As usual, Va Tech will bring a stingy defense and attempt a ball controlled offense, but they haven’t seen speed like this UCLA team has. UCLA put up 35 on USC just a couple weeks ago, and I expect them to do the same here.
Gambling angle: I’ll take UCLA -7 and the under 47.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Dec 31, 4:00pm EST ESPN
Rice v. Mississippi State
Mississippi State needed an overtime upset over rival Ole Miss to get to bowl eligibility, and they beat Arkansas in overtime the week before to even make a bowl appearance possible. That’s 0-8 in the SEC, Arkansas, in case you forgot. Rice won 10 games and blew out Marshall in the Conference USA Championship and actually played pretty competitively against A&M early in the season. This is one of the few times I’ll pick against the SEC. Go Rice!
Gambling angle: The underdogs have covered eight out of nine here and the under has hit 10 out of the last 14. So, if I had to put action on this game, Rice +7.5 and the under 50.5
Chick-fil-A Bowl – Dec. 31, 8:00pm EST ESPN
Duke v. Texas A&M
We get to see Johnny Manziel one last time before he heads to a complete failure of a career in the NFL (if RG3 can’t cut it, neither will Mr. Football). Duke’s defense kept them in games (even in the FSU game, they were in it for a couple quarters), and with plenty of rest, let’s look for that to continue. A&M probably pulls it out in the end, but I think it’ll be closer than many think.
Gambling angle: The SEC is 5-3 straight up in the last eight here, but I like Duke +12.5; and let’s take the under 73.5 (highest O/U of the bowls) as Manziel isn’t going to be able to run wild against Duke’s defense (how many just mentally pictured Bobby Hurley slapping the court?).
Well that’s it for the pre-New Year’s Games!
Until next time…
Gildan New Mexico Bowl – Dec. 21, 2:00pm EST ESPN
Washington State v. Colorado State
A couple of teams new to bowls start off the 2012-2013 bowl season, as Colorado State is bowling for the first time since 2008 and Washington State gets in at 6-6 for the first time since 2003. Keep an eye Kapri Bibbs, the running back no one has heard of. He plays for Colorado State and leads the nation with 28 rushing touchdowns. And Washington State’s defense has been torched by some of the stronger rushing teams in the PAC-12 this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Colorado State pulls the upset.
Gambling angle: This is the 8th New Mexico Bowl – and underdogs have not only covered five of the first seven, but won outright in four of those (and Nevada nearly upset UofSuck as a 10-point dog last year). In addition the over has hit in the last five. Let’s look for Colorado State to cover the +4, perhaps winning outright, and even though the over is at 65, I think they’ll get there as Leach’s pass-happy offense will put some points on the board as well.
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl – Dec. 21, 3:30pm EST ABC
Fresno State v. USC
Fresno State was one win away from busting the BCS, and UCS is on their third coach of the year. The match-up here is Fresno’s high powered offense versus UCS’s stingy defense. And, even though Fresno’s defense is horrible, UCS’s offense is just as bad. I’m excited about the game as it’s pretty rare to have a matchup of two ranked teams this early in the bowl season.
Gambling angle: I like Fresno State +6 (and maybe an outright win) and with ten of the last 15 Vegas Bowl’s hitting the under, I like the under 62 as USC’s offense is bad but their defense is going to keep Fresno in check.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Dec. 21, 5:30pm EST ESPN
Buffalo v. San Diego State
Ohio State destroyed San Diego State, but Buffalo played the Buckeyes pretty close. That was back in September though, and things have obviously changes since then. Three of San Diego State’s wins came in overtime, and another two wins were separated by five points or less and they only beat 2-10 Air Force by seven. December in Idaho will favor Buffalo, so let’s go ahead and pick them.
Gambling angle: No strong trends here: underdogs are 4-3-1 against the spread the last eight here, and half of the last six have played to either the over or the under. The game is a pick ‘em, and lets pick Buffalo and the under 63.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Dec. 21, 9:00pm EST ESPN
Tulane v. Louisiana-Lafayette
We should just change the name of this bowl to the Louisiana-Lafayette bowl as they’re making their third straight appearance (also winning the last two). Both teams lost to South Alabama, so take that for what it’s worth. I should like LA-LF at home, but Joe Montana’s kid (Nick) has led a nice turn around for Tulane’s program that’s only in their 4th bowl game in 30 years.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 5-3 in the past eight and six of the past seven have played over the total. The game’s a pick ‘em, so let’s take Tulane and the over 56.
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl – Dec 23, 2:00pm EST ESPN
East Carolina v. Ohio
If you don’t have anything better to do than watch this game, then go ahead and jump off of a cliff. The most interesting part of this game will be the O/U on Beef ‘O’ Brady commercials. Let’s put it at 9.5.
Gambling angle: This is the 6th Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, somehow it still keeps going. Let’s take ECU -13.5 and the over 61.5, not that anyone will be watching.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl – Dec. 24, 8:00pm ESPN
Boise State v. Oregon State
Peterson won’t be coaching the Broncos, focusing on his upcoming job with Washington. That’s gotta favor Oregon State. As usual, there’s going to massive offense in this game (even more so then usual, thanks to two crappy defenses), so I think we’re looking at a shoot-out. Boise State will win this one in a squeaker.
Gambling angle: Boise State opened -3, but now it’s moved to Oregon State -3, Underdogs have won, and covered, four of the past five here, and seven of the last 11 have played over. I like Boise State +3 and the over 65.
Little Caesars Bowl – Dec. 26, 6:00pm EST ESPN
Pittsburgh v. Bowling Green
I like Little Caesars Pizza. That’s about all I’ll say about this game.
Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered five outta six and under total is 9-5 in last 14 Motor City…errrrr, Little Caesars Bowls. Pitt +5.5 and the under 50, I guess.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – Dec. 26, 9:30pm EST ESPN
Utah State v. Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois was one win away from another BCS game, but they stumbled against Bowling Green. On paper, NIU is a much better team than Utah State, but this is the first of those bowls where you’ve gotta wonder if Northern Illinois will show up to play after going from a likely BCS spot to a pre-New Year’s game. And, Utah State may be the best defense that NIU has seen all year. Utah State pulls the upset in a squeaker.
Gambling angle: The Mountain West has won six of the past seven here, so let’s look for that again. Utah State +1.5 and the under 58, as points will be at a premium in this one.
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman – Dec. 27 2:30pm EST ESPN
Marshall v. Maryland
Remember when Maryland was 4-0 and ranked #25? Well, that week they lost to Florida State 63-0 and proceeded to lose four of their next six (winning their only two in that stretch by a total of four points). They did close with a win against ACC winless NC State to finish 7-5, but it’s 9-4 Marshall that comes into this one with all of the momentum. They had won seven of eight before losing to Rice in the Conference USA Championship Game. Marshall is 1st in the nation in passing and 7th in scoring. The problem is they’re defense gives up more than 40/game. The good news is Maryland only scores ~20/game, so I think Marshall comes out on top.
Gambling angle: All five is this bowl’s history have played to the over; so I like the Marshal -2.5 and the over 61.
Texas Bowl – Dec. 27, 6:00pm EST ESPN
Syracuse v. Minnesota
The old Texas Bowl that was the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas is now back to being just the Texas Bowl. Minnesota’s back here again, after given Texas Tech all they could handle last year. And this Gopher team is much better. Syracuse is a middle of the pack ACC team, so you gotta favor Minnesota in this one.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 7-3-2 against the spread in this bowl so let’s take Minnesota -4; and I like the over 47.5 as well as four of the past six played over.
Fight Hunger Bowl – Dec. 27, 9:30pm EST ESPN
BYU v. Washington
I guess Kraft didn’t fight hunger good enough, so it’s just the Fight Hunger Bowl now. Sarkisian is out as he’s the new USC coach, so good ol’ Tuiasosopo will be coaching for Washington. Washington’s only four losses were to ranked PAC-12 teams (Oregon, Stanford, Arizona State, and UCLA), while BYU beat Texas and played Wisconsin and Notre Dame close, but they also lost to Virginia and Utah. Let’s take Washington.
Gambling angle: Let’s look at Washington -3 and the under 58.5.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Dec. 28, 12:00pm EST ESPN
Rutgers v. Notre Dame
Rutgers needed a late win against South Florida to finish 6-6 and get to a bowl. Notre Dame was up and down all season, and just never really regained the “it” they had last year, despite returning most of their starters. Vegas really likes Notre Dame in this one, but as usual, the number is too high. Notre Dame will win, as Rutgers isn’t very good, but it’s going to be an ugly game.
Gambling angle: I’ll take Rutgers +15.5 and the under 52.5.
Belk Bowl – Dec. 28, 3:20pm EST ESPN
Cincinnati v. North Carolina
This would be a great Sweet 16 matchup, but we’re stuck with a football game instead. Cincy rattled off nine wins under Tuberville, and North Carolina bounced back after a 1-5 start to make a bowl. If the New Era Pinstripe Bowl didn’t bore you enough, this one certainly will.
Gambling angle: Cincy won and covered in this game last year, but they’re a 3-point underdog this year against a middle of the road ACC team. I like Cincy +3 and the over 56.5 (if you haven’t figured it out by now, this gambling “advice” is truly for entertainment purposes. Anyone who bets on this game needs to call 1-800-522-4700 immediately.
Russell Athletic Bowl – Dec. 28, 6:45pm ESPN
Miami v. Louisville
Both of these teams had early National Championship hopes before Louisville lost a heartbreaker to eventual AAC Champion UCF and Miami dropped three straight to Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Duke. This is likely Teddy Bridgewater’s last game for Louisville, and he gets to play it very close to where he played his high school ball in Florida. Louisville’s defense is underrated, and it’s kind of a shame that they’re ranked as low as they are for being a one loss team. Miami was exposed mid-season, and they’ll be exposed in this one as well. Louisville wins big in yet another bowl game.
Gambling angle: The ACC is only 3-7 straight up in this game, and the under is 7-1 the past eight. I really like Louisville -3.5 and the under 55.5.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl – Dec. 28, 10:15pm EST ESPN
Michigan v. Kansas State
Michigan stumbles into this bowl, losing five of seven and has an injured QB. And let’s not forget they almost lost to Akron and UConn. Kansas State started poorly, but has won five of their last six (losing only to BCS-at large Oklahoma in a pretty close game). I’d think Kansas State wins this one handily, but they have lost their last five bowl games, and Michigan occasionally performs extremely well (remember the games against Notre Dame and Ohio State?). But, the injury bug will be too much for Michigan to overcome, and Synder is due for a bowl win.
Gambling angle: The over is 8-3 in this last 11 here, and the Big-12 has won five of seven v. Big-10, so I’ll take Kansas State -3.5 and over 55.5
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl – Dec. 30, 11:45am EST ESPN
Middle Tennessee v. Navy
Navy can run the ball and Middle Tennessee cannot stop the run. That’s this one in a nutshell.
Gambling angle: Rice upset Air Force last year, but I don’t see Middle Tennessee figuring out how to stop Navy’s triple option attack, especially with how porous their defense is. Let’s take Navy -6 and the over 55.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Dec. 30, 3:15pm EST ESPN
Ole Miss v. Georgia Tech
A match-up of 7-5 teams in this one. But, one’s from the SEC and the other from ACC. That means the SEC team wins. Don’t forget Ole Miss beat Texas and LSU this year (but do forget they lost to Mississippi State). Georgia Tech’s signature win was over Duke, but that was early in the season, and regardless of how good Duke is this year, it’s never a good thing to have them as your signature win.
Gambling angle: I like Ole Miss -3 (favorites are 6-2-1 the last nine Music City bowls) and since eight of 12 have played under, I like the under 57.
Valero Alamo Bowl – Dec. 30, 6:45pm EST ESPN
Oregon v. Texas
The Big 12 has owned the PAC-12 in recent history in this game which bodes well for Texas. Oregon struggled down the stretch after getting beat down (again) by Stanford, and Texas rebounded nicely after starting slow. This will also be Mack Brown’s final game at the helm for Texas, ending a stellar career that’s been on the slow decline the last couple of years. But, which Oregon team will show up? The National Championship contender, or the team that lost to Stanford and then more or less declared that they didn’t even care about the Rose Bowl (which of course led to another loss)? And, Texas upset Oregon State in this very game last year. But, the Ducks aren’t the Beavers, and this Texas team isn’t as good as last year’s version. I like Oregon in a shootout.
Gambling angle: Trends for both the spread and O/U are pretty even here, so I gotta go with my gut. Oregon will win, but not by 14. I like Texas +14 and the over 67.
National University Holiday Bowl – Dec. 30, 10:15pm EST ESPN
Arizona State v. Texas Tech
Lots of offense in this one, as the teams combine to average more than 90 passes a game. Tech stumbles in at 7-5, losing five straight in the meat of their conference schedule. Whereas, Arizona State comes in with losing to only two teams: Stanford and Notre Dame, and they easily could’ve beaten the Irish. On paper, this should be all Devils, but what scares me is ASU is 0-3 in the Holiday Bowl, and they had their sights set on the Rose Bowl this year. But, they are a much better team, and their offense will cause lots of problems for Tech’s defense which was exposed in their five game skid against Oklahoma (38), Oklahoma State (52), Kansas State (49), Baylor (63), and Texas (41). ASU should get a Holiday Bowl win finally.
Gambling angle: Interesting angle’s here: the PAC-10 doesn’t win (3-9 straight up), but favorites cover (14-3), which is quite the conundrum as ASU is a 14-point favorite. The over 70 looks good (even though it’s the second highest O/U this bowl season), and I’ll lean towards ASU winning, but Tech covering the +14.
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – Dec. 31, 12:30pm EST ESPN
Arizona v. Boston College
Two of the best running backs in the country face off in this one, and I’m sure you’ll hear the announcers say that a dozen or so times. Boston College’s claim to fame this year was only losing to Florida State by 14. UofSuck’s claim to fame was beating Oregon. They both lost to USC, though BC lost worse. That’s enough for me to pick UofSuck.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 7-3 against the spread and the four of the last five here played under. So let’s take UofSuck -7.5 and under 57 as the clock’s going to move quick in this one.
Hyundai Sun Bowl – Dec. 31, 2:00pm EST CBS
Virginia Tech v. UCLA
UCLA’s offense versus Virginia Tech’s defense will be the highlight here. As usual, Va Tech will bring a stingy defense and attempt a ball controlled offense, but they haven’t seen speed like this UCLA team has. UCLA put up 35 on USC just a couple weeks ago, and I expect them to do the same here.
Gambling angle: I’ll take UCLA -7 and the under 47.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Dec 31, 4:00pm EST ESPN
Rice v. Mississippi State
Mississippi State needed an overtime upset over rival Ole Miss to get to bowl eligibility, and they beat Arkansas in overtime the week before to even make a bowl appearance possible. That’s 0-8 in the SEC, Arkansas, in case you forgot. Rice won 10 games and blew out Marshall in the Conference USA Championship and actually played pretty competitively against A&M early in the season. This is one of the few times I’ll pick against the SEC. Go Rice!
Gambling angle: The underdogs have covered eight out of nine here and the under has hit 10 out of the last 14. So, if I had to put action on this game, Rice +7.5 and the under 50.5
Chick-fil-A Bowl – Dec. 31, 8:00pm EST ESPN
Duke v. Texas A&M
We get to see Johnny Manziel one last time before he heads to a complete failure of a career in the NFL (if RG3 can’t cut it, neither will Mr. Football). Duke’s defense kept them in games (even in the FSU game, they were in it for a couple quarters), and with plenty of rest, let’s look for that to continue. A&M probably pulls it out in the end, but I think it’ll be closer than many think.
Gambling angle: The SEC is 5-3 straight up in the last eight here, but I like Duke +12.5; and let’s take the under 73.5 (highest O/U of the bowls) as Manziel isn’t going to be able to run wild against Duke’s defense (how many just mentally pictured Bobby Hurley slapping the court?).
Well that’s it for the pre-New Year’s Games!
Until next time…
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Week 14 Recap and Week 15 Preview
Wow! Rivalry weekend certainly lived up to the hype – many games came down to the wire and Arizona State beat the snot out of UofSuck! Coaches are already starting to shuffle, and there’s renewed debate about who’s #2. I’ll expand on that – who’s #1??
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 14 Top-10 recap:
1. In my preview of the Auburn/Alabama game, I closed with this: “This one goes down to the wire, and if a bounce or two goes Auburn’s way, they pull off the upset.” The bounces certainly went their way (sans the Alabama 99-yard TD pass). I felt like Saban made some coaching mistakes, but I think part of it started right on the first drive when Alabama missed the FG wide left. It’s almost like Saban felt they were reliving the 2011 LSU game. Still, I have yet to hear a legitimate defense for trying that 56 yard FG with : 01 left. You’ve a Heisman candidate QB, have him toss it to the endzone and hope for a miracle grab or a defensive penalty. Of course, if it does go O.T., there’s no guarantee that Alabama wins (especially with how well Auburn runs the ball in a short field situation, and how bad Alabama’s kicking game was), but it still seems pretty cruel that the dynasty ends on a 109-yard missed FG return against an in-state rival in their building. Though, an Alabama-Auburn rematch in the Championship isn’t completely out of the question (more on that later).
2. In a turnover-filled Civil War, the Beavers matched the Ducks blow for blow, but in the end they just left too much time on the clock for the Oregon offense. Of course, Oregon scored the winning TD with just a 1:09 drive. Great effort by Oregon State though, and I’m glad that Mariota is coming back for Oregon. They’ll be a Top-5 preseason team once again.
3. “The Game” saw its highest scoring matchup since 1902 and Michigan went for two (probably since they wouldn’t let ‘em go for three) and the win after a three TD rally in the 4th quarter. I like the call. You were a huge underdog at home, had all the momentum, and had a chance to knock your rival out of the National Championship Game. And, Ohio State was running the ball at will against Michigan all day, not something you want to go up against in O.T. with a tired defense. But, the pass was intercepted and it looks like Ohio State will be in the BCS Championship if they can get by Michigan State.
4. South Carolina continued its dominance over Clemson, and I’m going to be really curious to watch how Clemson plays in its bowl game. Outside of the Georgia game in week #1, they played two quality teams (FSU and South Carolina) and got blown out by both of them. If Clemson played in the SEC, PAC-12, or Big-12 this year, they’re probably a 3-5 loss team.
5. The best part about the Territorial Cup was Arizona State blowing out UofSuck and grabbing home field advantage for the PAC-12 Championship against Stanford. The worst part? The PAC-12 Network must be owned by UofSuck, because it sucks as much as they do, and hardly anyone got to watch the game. Get it together PAC-12 Network!!
6. Michigan State has now won eight straight, and has a chance to knock Ohio State out of the National Championship picture. Interestingly enough, it looks like Michigan State is headed to Rose Bowl, win or lose as the Rose Bowl would likely grab them up if Ohio State does win and winds up in the National Championship. I’m still not sold on this Sparty team, but they do only have one loss (a close 17-13 contest @ Notre Dame), and they’re defense will always keep them in games (and in some cases, win games).
7. Duke held off North Carolina to win the ACC-Coastal, and with FSU playing Duke in the ACC Championship, and Ohio State playing Michigan State in the Big-12 Championship, the main assumption of there is that FSU-Ohio State will be the BCS Championship match-up. Lots has been said and written about who deserves the #2 slot and who will get stuck in the #3 slot (even though there’s lots of football left to play!). I’ll take it a step further – who deserves to be #1??
8. Let’s debate #1 – FSU is clear favorite atop the polls, but let’s look at their resume: non-con schedule (Nevada, Bethune-Cookman, Idaho, and Florda) – meh. Key wins: Clemson, Maryland, Miami – meh. Closest game: @ Boston College – meh. Overall conference (ACC): double meh. Okay, how about Ohio State: non-con schedule (Buffalo, San Diego State, Cal, Florida A&M): double meh (at least in FSU’s case, Florida is supposed to be good). Key wins: Wisconsin and Northwestern – okay, but not great. Closest games: v. Wisconsin and @ Michigan – okay. Overall conference (Big 10): meh (or even double meh, same # of ranked teams as the ACC). The edge may actually be to Ohio State to be ranked over FSU. So that settles #1 and #2, right? In the words of Corso – not so fast!
9. But here’s where it gets interesting – let’s look at these three one-loss SEC teams: Auburn, Alabama, and Missouri.
Auburn’s non-con schedule (Washington State, Arkansas State, W. Carolina, Florida Atl): meh (though at least Wazzou is going to a bowl). Key wins: Ole Miss, A&M, Georgia, Alabama – wow. Loss: @ LSU in week 4 – okay. Overall conference (SEC): still the best, seven currently ranked teams.
Alabama’s non-con schedule (Virginia Tech, Colorado State, Georgia State, Chattanooga) – meh, though props for scheduling a tough (at least when scheduled) early game and for sprinkling out the cupcakes throughout the year). Key wins: @ A&M, Ole Miss, LSU – pretty good. Loss: @ Auburn (on a 109 missed FG return) – wow.
Missouri’s non-con schedule (Murray State, Toledo, Arkansas State, Indiana) – meh. Key wins: Georgia, Ole Miss, A&M – good. Loss: South Carolina (in 2 O.T.) – wow.
10. So, to close this recap, I will suggest this: if college football had no rankings until today, this is how the teams should be ranked (based on their abilities, momentum, and overall resume): 1) Missouri, 2) Auburn, 3) Alabama, 4) Ohio State, and 5) FSU; which, ironically, is almost the exact opposite of this week’s BCS rankings. But, thankfully, the sun is setting on the BCS, and next year we can be having the argument of who gets left out of the Top-4? In this scenario, I think it would probably be Alabama based on their late loss. Even with a playoff, it’s still going to be better to lose early than late…
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Florida State (12-0) – I hope you get a shot at one of the SEC teams.
#2 Ohio State (11-0) – Just lose to Michigan State and make it easier on everyone.
#3 Missouri (11-1) – Double O.T. loss to South Carolina makes you the most impressive one loss team.
#4 Auburn (11-1) – You beat ‘Bama, so you have to be above them.
#5 Alabama (11-1) – Do you think Saban slept on Saturday night?
#6 Oklahoma State (10-1) – Fiesta Bowl bound.
#7 Baylor (10-1) – Still seeking an at-large bid.
#8 South Carolina (10-2) – Will sadly be left out of an at-large bid.
#9 Michigan State (11-1) – Roses for the Spartans.
#10 Northern Illinois (12-0) – Which bowl do you get clobbered in this year? The Fiesta, I think.
Rising Fast:
Auburn – Two miracle finishes in a row put the Tigers in position for the SEC Championship and a very good case for an appearance in the BCS Championship.
Falling Faster:
UAB – They were up by eight at halftime against So. Miss (a team that was 0-12 last year and 0-11 this year) and ended up losing by 35 and finish the year 2-10.
Heisman Watch:
Jordan Lynch, Northern Illinois – Why not? He’s a 20/20 guy (passing/rushing TDs) and three of the four that have done that in the history of college football have won the Heisman (Tebow, Newton, and Manziel). Northern Illinois is likely going to bust the BCS again, and unlike Winston, Lynch isn’t likely to get busted by the law soon.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Florida State v. Ohio State – I’m still torn on this one, as you can make a case that several of the one loss teams had a much tougher road than these two. But, until we have a playoff, two undefeated teams have largely been rewarded. Let’s pick FSU 45 Ohio State 31.
Week 15 Big Games:
Duke v. Florida State – Duke’s a great story this year, but they’re completely over-matched in this one. Even the most serious of off the field distractions won’t come into play here. FSU 52 Duke 17.
Michigan State v. Ohio State – Michigan State will need their defense to score often to have a chance in this one. But, Ohio State may have some suspensions, and teams often start slow off of a very emotional victory. If Michigan State can put some points on the board early, their defense may be able to hold off the Buckeyes. But not for long enough. Ohio State 27 Michigan State 14.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State – Bedlam decides the Big-12 Championship. Sort of. If Oklahoma State wins, they win the Conference, if OU pulls the upset then the Baylor/Texas game has some relevance. Oklahoma State always seems to struggle against their big brother, but they’ve got the better team this year, and are at home and are riding high. Oklahoma State 34 Oklahoma 27.
Stanford @ Arizona State – ASU gets Stanford at home in this rematch, but this time ASU is favored. It’s hard to figure out why, especially since Stanford had the Devil’s down 29-0 at halftime earlier this season. But ASU is peaking, and Stanford struggles on the road (losing @ Utah and @ USC and struggling @ Oregon State and even @ Army). A look at both of these teams’ match-ups with Notre Dame show just how evenly matched they are. And, if you look at last year’s PAC-12 Championship (also a re-match), Stanford struggled against UCLA even though the beat them handily the week before. I like ASU to unexpectedly get to the Rose Bowl: 34 to 31.
Week 15 Game of the Week:
Missouri v. Auburn – No surprise that the SEC Championship is once again this week’s game of the week, but it is a surprise that it is Auburn and Missouri facing off. We covered both teams earlier and how they got here and I think this match-up comes down to this – either destiny or borrowed time. Auburn could’ve easily lost their last two while Missouri has just been chugging along. Will Auburn come out flat after back-to-back weeks of emotional victories? Can Missouri’s defense shut down the Auburn running game? Everyone seems to be riding Auburn, so I’m going to do the opposite: Missouri pulls the upset and makes their case for #2: 38 to 31.
Until next time…
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 14 Top-10 recap:
1. In my preview of the Auburn/Alabama game, I closed with this: “This one goes down to the wire, and if a bounce or two goes Auburn’s way, they pull off the upset.” The bounces certainly went their way (sans the Alabama 99-yard TD pass). I felt like Saban made some coaching mistakes, but I think part of it started right on the first drive when Alabama missed the FG wide left. It’s almost like Saban felt they were reliving the 2011 LSU game. Still, I have yet to hear a legitimate defense for trying that 56 yard FG with : 01 left. You’ve a Heisman candidate QB, have him toss it to the endzone and hope for a miracle grab or a defensive penalty. Of course, if it does go O.T., there’s no guarantee that Alabama wins (especially with how well Auburn runs the ball in a short field situation, and how bad Alabama’s kicking game was), but it still seems pretty cruel that the dynasty ends on a 109-yard missed FG return against an in-state rival in their building. Though, an Alabama-Auburn rematch in the Championship isn’t completely out of the question (more on that later).
2. In a turnover-filled Civil War, the Beavers matched the Ducks blow for blow, but in the end they just left too much time on the clock for the Oregon offense. Of course, Oregon scored the winning TD with just a 1:09 drive. Great effort by Oregon State though, and I’m glad that Mariota is coming back for Oregon. They’ll be a Top-5 preseason team once again.
3. “The Game” saw its highest scoring matchup since 1902 and Michigan went for two (probably since they wouldn’t let ‘em go for three) and the win after a three TD rally in the 4th quarter. I like the call. You were a huge underdog at home, had all the momentum, and had a chance to knock your rival out of the National Championship Game. And, Ohio State was running the ball at will against Michigan all day, not something you want to go up against in O.T. with a tired defense. But, the pass was intercepted and it looks like Ohio State will be in the BCS Championship if they can get by Michigan State.
4. South Carolina continued its dominance over Clemson, and I’m going to be really curious to watch how Clemson plays in its bowl game. Outside of the Georgia game in week #1, they played two quality teams (FSU and South Carolina) and got blown out by both of them. If Clemson played in the SEC, PAC-12, or Big-12 this year, they’re probably a 3-5 loss team.
5. The best part about the Territorial Cup was Arizona State blowing out UofSuck and grabbing home field advantage for the PAC-12 Championship against Stanford. The worst part? The PAC-12 Network must be owned by UofSuck, because it sucks as much as they do, and hardly anyone got to watch the game. Get it together PAC-12 Network!!
6. Michigan State has now won eight straight, and has a chance to knock Ohio State out of the National Championship picture. Interestingly enough, it looks like Michigan State is headed to Rose Bowl, win or lose as the Rose Bowl would likely grab them up if Ohio State does win and winds up in the National Championship. I’m still not sold on this Sparty team, but they do only have one loss (a close 17-13 contest @ Notre Dame), and they’re defense will always keep them in games (and in some cases, win games).
7. Duke held off North Carolina to win the ACC-Coastal, and with FSU playing Duke in the ACC Championship, and Ohio State playing Michigan State in the Big-12 Championship, the main assumption of there is that FSU-Ohio State will be the BCS Championship match-up. Lots has been said and written about who deserves the #2 slot and who will get stuck in the #3 slot (even though there’s lots of football left to play!). I’ll take it a step further – who deserves to be #1??
8. Let’s debate #1 – FSU is clear favorite atop the polls, but let’s look at their resume: non-con schedule (Nevada, Bethune-Cookman, Idaho, and Florda) – meh. Key wins: Clemson, Maryland, Miami – meh. Closest game: @ Boston College – meh. Overall conference (ACC): double meh. Okay, how about Ohio State: non-con schedule (Buffalo, San Diego State, Cal, Florida A&M): double meh (at least in FSU’s case, Florida is supposed to be good). Key wins: Wisconsin and Northwestern – okay, but not great. Closest games: v. Wisconsin and @ Michigan – okay. Overall conference (Big 10): meh (or even double meh, same # of ranked teams as the ACC). The edge may actually be to Ohio State to be ranked over FSU. So that settles #1 and #2, right? In the words of Corso – not so fast!
9. But here’s where it gets interesting – let’s look at these three one-loss SEC teams: Auburn, Alabama, and Missouri.
Auburn’s non-con schedule (Washington State, Arkansas State, W. Carolina, Florida Atl): meh (though at least Wazzou is going to a bowl). Key wins: Ole Miss, A&M, Georgia, Alabama – wow. Loss: @ LSU in week 4 – okay. Overall conference (SEC): still the best, seven currently ranked teams.
Alabama’s non-con schedule (Virginia Tech, Colorado State, Georgia State, Chattanooga) – meh, though props for scheduling a tough (at least when scheduled) early game and for sprinkling out the cupcakes throughout the year). Key wins: @ A&M, Ole Miss, LSU – pretty good. Loss: @ Auburn (on a 109 missed FG return) – wow.
Missouri’s non-con schedule (Murray State, Toledo, Arkansas State, Indiana) – meh. Key wins: Georgia, Ole Miss, A&M – good. Loss: South Carolina (in 2 O.T.) – wow.
10. So, to close this recap, I will suggest this: if college football had no rankings until today, this is how the teams should be ranked (based on their abilities, momentum, and overall resume): 1) Missouri, 2) Auburn, 3) Alabama, 4) Ohio State, and 5) FSU; which, ironically, is almost the exact opposite of this week’s BCS rankings. But, thankfully, the sun is setting on the BCS, and next year we can be having the argument of who gets left out of the Top-4? In this scenario, I think it would probably be Alabama based on their late loss. Even with a playoff, it’s still going to be better to lose early than late…
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Florida State (12-0) – I hope you get a shot at one of the SEC teams.
#2 Ohio State (11-0) – Just lose to Michigan State and make it easier on everyone.
#3 Missouri (11-1) – Double O.T. loss to South Carolina makes you the most impressive one loss team.
#4 Auburn (11-1) – You beat ‘Bama, so you have to be above them.
#5 Alabama (11-1) – Do you think Saban slept on Saturday night?
#6 Oklahoma State (10-1) – Fiesta Bowl bound.
#7 Baylor (10-1) – Still seeking an at-large bid.
#8 South Carolina (10-2) – Will sadly be left out of an at-large bid.
#9 Michigan State (11-1) – Roses for the Spartans.
#10 Northern Illinois (12-0) – Which bowl do you get clobbered in this year? The Fiesta, I think.
Rising Fast:
Auburn – Two miracle finishes in a row put the Tigers in position for the SEC Championship and a very good case for an appearance in the BCS Championship.
Falling Faster:
UAB – They were up by eight at halftime against So. Miss (a team that was 0-12 last year and 0-11 this year) and ended up losing by 35 and finish the year 2-10.
Heisman Watch:
Jordan Lynch, Northern Illinois – Why not? He’s a 20/20 guy (passing/rushing TDs) and three of the four that have done that in the history of college football have won the Heisman (Tebow, Newton, and Manziel). Northern Illinois is likely going to bust the BCS again, and unlike Winston, Lynch isn’t likely to get busted by the law soon.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Florida State v. Ohio State – I’m still torn on this one, as you can make a case that several of the one loss teams had a much tougher road than these two. But, until we have a playoff, two undefeated teams have largely been rewarded. Let’s pick FSU 45 Ohio State 31.
Week 15 Big Games:
Duke v. Florida State – Duke’s a great story this year, but they’re completely over-matched in this one. Even the most serious of off the field distractions won’t come into play here. FSU 52 Duke 17.
Michigan State v. Ohio State – Michigan State will need their defense to score often to have a chance in this one. But, Ohio State may have some suspensions, and teams often start slow off of a very emotional victory. If Michigan State can put some points on the board early, their defense may be able to hold off the Buckeyes. But not for long enough. Ohio State 27 Michigan State 14.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State – Bedlam decides the Big-12 Championship. Sort of. If Oklahoma State wins, they win the Conference, if OU pulls the upset then the Baylor/Texas game has some relevance. Oklahoma State always seems to struggle against their big brother, but they’ve got the better team this year, and are at home and are riding high. Oklahoma State 34 Oklahoma 27.
Stanford @ Arizona State – ASU gets Stanford at home in this rematch, but this time ASU is favored. It’s hard to figure out why, especially since Stanford had the Devil’s down 29-0 at halftime earlier this season. But ASU is peaking, and Stanford struggles on the road (losing @ Utah and @ USC and struggling @ Oregon State and even @ Army). A look at both of these teams’ match-ups with Notre Dame show just how evenly matched they are. And, if you look at last year’s PAC-12 Championship (also a re-match), Stanford struggled against UCLA even though the beat them handily the week before. I like ASU to unexpectedly get to the Rose Bowl: 34 to 31.
Week 15 Game of the Week:
Missouri v. Auburn – No surprise that the SEC Championship is once again this week’s game of the week, but it is a surprise that it is Auburn and Missouri facing off. We covered both teams earlier and how they got here and I think this match-up comes down to this – either destiny or borrowed time. Auburn could’ve easily lost their last two while Missouri has just been chugging along. Will Auburn come out flat after back-to-back weeks of emotional victories? Can Missouri’s defense shut down the Auburn running game? Everyone seems to be riding Auburn, so I’m going to do the opposite: Missouri pulls the upset and makes their case for #2: 38 to 31.
Until next time…
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