Week 6 Recap and Week 7 Preview

For the first time ever, five of the Top-8 teams in the AP poll lost on the same weekend. With the way the schedules were lining up, and the failure for any one team to distance themselves from the pack, it wasn’t a matter of if this was going to happen, but when. It also highlights a big problem in college football – preseason polling. Preseason college football polls lately are becoming more and more like Doc Brown’s crazy mind-reader machine. Had you told Dr. Brown back in mid-September what was going to happen in week 6, he would’ve said: “Do you know what this means……it means that this DAMN thing doesn’t work!” Well, that’s becoming more and more true about preseason, and even early season polls, in college football. No need to even begin releasing things until conference play begins. However, despite the massive amount of upsets this weekend (and certainly more to come), the most interesting thing is that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Meaning, the overall playoff picture hasn’t significantly changed much, even though we have few teams new to the top of the polls. More on that, as we get into the Top 10 recap:

1) Despite UCLA’s luck running out finally, and Oregon losing to UofSuck (again), not much has changed in the PAC-12 race. No, UofSuck isn’t a Top-10 team and will quickly lose two or three (or more in the PAC-12). Remember, UofSuck barely beat UTSA and Nevada, and needed a Hail Mary to beat Cal at home. And, despite USC losing on a Hail Mary to ASU (what a bizarre play that was!) and Stanford falling to Notre Dame (in yet another Stanford game decided by seven or less), the PAC-12 race is right where it started out to be: between Oregon and UCLA. And, with the SEC really looking like it’s going to beat each other up now (no offense, Mississippi schools, but I just don’t see the Egg Bowl as the game deciding the SEC West), it still looks like the PAC-12 Champion has a good shot to get to the Final Four. And, we get a preview at that likely PAC-12 Championship this weekend at Oregon heads down to Palo Alto with both teams looking to get back on track.

2) In the Big 12, I called the TCU upset over Oklahoma. Despite being ranked #1 in some of the power polls, Oklahoma wasn’t impressing me, and in some ways were only in that position because of their win over an unmotivated Alabama team in the Sugar Bowl last year. And, Big Game Bob hasn’t been so for about 15 years. But, even with OU going down, the Big 12 Championship (and probably Final Four spot) is probably still going to come down to the Baylor-OU game. Especially because TCU goes down to Baylor this weekend.

3) The most surprising result of the week (including the upsets) was Auburn manhandling LSU and dominating every aspect of that game and handing Les Miles his worst loss as LSU’s coach. LSU had beaten Auburn three straight (including Auburn’s only regular season loss last year), but not only is Auburn’s offense back to firing on all cylinders, but their defense is playing better and better every week. But, it doesn’t get any easier for Auburn now, starting @ Mississippi State this weekend.

4) While most people’s take away from the Alabama/Ole Miss game was the Alabama is/was undefeated, I see things differently (especially if you actually watched the game). Alabama owned that game on both sides of the ball until that key turnover in the 4th quarter on the kick off following the Ole Miss score. And even then, thanks to the blocked extra point on the ensuing touchdown, they were in a position to win the game. Make no mistake, Alabama isn’t the juggernaut this year that they have been in previous years, but even when Alabama makes huge 4th quarter mistakes and misses FG’s, they’re still in position to win games. I still think they have a good chance to come out of the SEC-West, especially because of their experience. Mississippi State and Ole Miss aren’t used to what is going to be mounting pressure each and every week.

5) With Michigan State’s big come-from-ahead win against Nebraska, we’re seeing something interesting happening in the Big 10. While the SEC and PAC-12 start to beat each other up, the Big 10 is extremely happy to be in conference play. Michigan State and Ohio State are starting to run away with the conference, and the early losses by both teams are becoming distant memories. They always say in college football that it’s better to lose early than late (witness Michigan State ahead of Oregon in the polls), and as the prize fighters in the SEC keep knocking each off, it’s starting to look like the Big 10 Champion may sneak into the Top-4.

6) I still insist Notre Dame isn’t a Top-10 team. Sure, that’s a nice win against Stanford this weekend, but they lose that game if Stanford doesn’t make one missed assignment on that key 4th and 11 with a minute to go in the game that allowed Notre Dame to score the winning TD. Big mistakes and turnovers for both teams, but penalties and that missed assignment did Stanford in. But, Notre Dame still has @ Florida State, @ Arizona State, and @ USC (not mention @ pesky Navy). With one loss, Notre Dame will be out of the playoff picture.

7) Speaking of Arizona State and USC, I’ve seen lots of Hail Mary’s over the years, but I’ve never seen one like that, especially because ASU in essence had two Hail Mary’s – scoring on a 73-yard TD reception just a couple minutes earlier. After stopping USC to get the ball back, ASU only needed ~20 yards to get into FG range but opted to go for the Hail Mary. The result was an underthrown pop fly pass caught by an ASU guy in dead sprint as three of four USC players sat there like they were about to fair catch a punt. Arizona State still alive in the PAC-12 South.

8) That ASU Hail Mary was bizarre, but not as bizarre as the trick play TCU pulled off against Oklahoma. After tying the game, OU kicked off to the Horned Frogs. One of TCU’s players (dressed in their dark uniforms) had laid down in the dark painted end zone and was camouflaged. After the receiver caught the kick and started up field, the guy got up and caught a lateral, nearly getting to midfield in the process. But alas, the play was wiped out by a holding penalty. If you didn’t see the play, look it up; it’s pretty good.

9) I’m sold on Mississippi State (which of course means they’ll lose this weekend). Dak Prescott is playing like a Heisman, the defense is solid, the offense controls the ball/clock, and they’ve responded to challenges thusfar in SEC-West play. If they can somehow get by Auburn this week, they’ve a let up in schedule until they head to Tuscaloosa on November 15th.

10) While I wasn’t much of a fan of the BCS, and I think the four team playoff is a step in the right direction, I still get sick of the “every week is a playoff” mantra you hear so often. If that was the case, all five of these Top-8 teams that lost this weekend would be out of contention with so much football left to play. Thankfully they’re not; as I don’t think a week 6 loss should eliminate anyone from contention in a playoff. Call it a double elimination pre-playoff to the playoff, as all five teams that lost this weekend have no more room for error. Especially with six more huge games slated for week 7.

The Top-10

#1. Florida State (5-0) – Still #1, but still vulnerable.

#2. Auburn (5-0) – It’s like the end of 2013 all over again!

#3. Baylor (5-0) – Your schedule makes it more likely that you’ll remain unbeaten. That’s important for the committee. Why, I don’t know. But it is.

#4. Mississippi State (5-0) – Two huge wins in a row and now all of the sudden you’re in contention. You’re also a home underdog this weekend to Auburn.

#5. Ole Miss (5-0) – Huge, emotional win v. Alabama; immediately followed by a trip to a pissed off A&M team. Yeah, have fun with that.

#6. Alabama (4-1) – Remember that two of three Alabama’s recent National Championships included a loss to a quality team from the SEC West. If ‘Bama doesn’t turn it over twice in the second half and makes some field goals, they win that game easily and are #2. Things aren’t over for the Tide.

#7. Notre Dame (5-0) – I still don’t think you’re a Top-10 team, but if everyone else keeps losing, and you keep winning, what am I supposed to do?

#8. Oregon (4-1) – As long as you have the same number of losses as Michigan State, I’ll have you ranked ahead of them. But, you need to take care of UCLA this weekend.

#9. Michigan State (4-1) – Congrats on winning the Big 10!

#10.TCU (4-0) – Welcome to the Top-10! Enjoy it while it lasts, because I have a feeling you won’t be here long!

Heisman Watch:

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Coolest named QB we’ve seen in a while, best QB in the country right now on the hottest team in the country right now in best conference overall (and best division by far). But, the spotlight won’t be easy, especially with your upcoming schedule

College Football Playoff Prediction:

#1 Florida State v. #4 Mississippi State

#2 Auburn v. #3 Baylor

Championship: Mississippi State v. Auburn – Wouldn’t it be interesting if the first four team playoff in college football history gave a rematch of a regular season SEC game? With the teams that are left in the hunt, it’s entirely possible…

Week 7 Big Games:

Georgia @ Missouri – Missouri beat South Carolina and Georgia did not, so that gives an automatic nod to Missouri in this one, especially since they’re at home, right? In the words of Lee Corse – not so fast! Missouri is going to see a steady dose of Gurley all day long, and Georgia is overall the better team (as in, they didn’t lose to Indiana). Georgia regains control in the SEC-East: 38 to 27.

TCU @ Baylor – Oh how things change in the Big 12. The second weekend in October, and the featured game in Texas between Top-10 teams isn’t the Red River Shootout, but TCU/Baylor. Patterson’s boys better be ready to play early. We see it so many times. A team with an emotional win the weekend before struggles in their next game. Especially on the road. Especially with a quality opponent. All three of those are in play this weekend. Baylor scores early and often and blows TCU back to the middle of the Big 12: Baylor 52 TCU 38.

Oregon @ UCLA – This was supposed to be a Top-10 matchup and preview of the PAC-12 Championship, but with both teams stumbling against lesser foes this past weekend, we’re left with just two teams wanting to get back into things. UCLA hasn’t looked great all year (except against Arizona State) and Oregon’s offensive line looks like a series of human turn-styles. But, again, outside of the game against ASU (and who doesn’t look good against ASU’s defense?), UCLA hasn’t looked great against Virginia, Memphis, Texas, and Utah. Oregon heads into Pasadena and gets a win in the Rose Bowl: 43 to 30.

Ole Miss @ Texas A&M – Ole Miss’ stock is at an all-time high following their upset of Alabama, and A&M’s is at a yearly low after its loss at Mississippi State. But, I’ll say it again – huge emotional win followed by a tough game on the road, and that spells trouble for Ole Miss (especially with their safety being suspended for the first half for that cheap shot against Alabama that ended up breaking the leg of their running back). I’ll sell high and buy low, and take A&M: Texas A&M 45 Ole Miss 27.

USC @ UofSuck – UofSuck is the last undefeated team in the PAC-12, and they’re back at home against a two-loss USC team. And they’re a three point underdog. When Vegas knows, they know. Remember, this UofSuck team barely beat UTSA and Nevada, and needed a Hail Mary and 36 point 4th quarter to beat lowly Cal. And they caught Oregon at the right time on a Thursday night (where favorites go to die) with a beat up offensive line. USC 27 UofSuck 20.

Week 7 Game of the Week:

Auburn @ Mississippi State – Dak and Co. are back at home, and it’s just another game against a Top-10 opponent, as Mississippi State tries to keep their magical run alive. The problem is, Auburn is the team coming to town – not only the #2 in the current polls, but the #2 team from last year as well. And, their defense is much better than last year but most importantly, they aren’t as one dimension on offense this year, and Nick Marshall has Auburn rolling. Look for a shootout in this one, as both teams know they’re best defense will be a good offense as the other is going to score as well. My gut says War Eagle, but my heart says Dak Prescott: Mississippi State 41 Auburn 38.




Until next time…

Week 5 Recap and Week 6 Preview

The week 5 Recap, in a series one sentences statements: (I was camping much of the weekend, so didn’t watch much, there really wasn’t much to talk about anyways, and the week 6 preview is too damn exciting with seven big games on the schedule, so I’m spending my time there)

1) Florida State was challenged early as predicted.

2) South Carolina still isn’t very good.

3) The SEC-West still is.

4) Case in point, Arkansas is the best two loss team in the country.

5) Georgia might be the most overrated one loss team in the country.

6) Baylor continues to roll.

7) Yet another Stanford game decided by seven or less.

8) Nebraska is the only undefeated team left in the B1G.

9) UofSuck is one of three undefeateds left in the PAC-12 (though that’ll change Thursday).

10) UCLA just scored; again.

The Top-10

#1. Florida State (4-0) – Forget about October 18 v. Notre Dame. Thursday, October 30th @ Louisville will be interesting.

#2. Oklahoma (4-0) – We’ll finally know more after this weekend @ TCU.

#3. Alabama (4-0) – Four out of your next five away from Tuscaloosa, including @ Ole Miss, @ Arkansas, @ LSU, and that one “Third Saturday in October” thing (which the game is actually the 4th Saturday in October this year, and most of the last 20 years, but whatever).

#4. Oregon (4-0) – Don’t be peaking ahead to UCLA, now!

#5. Auburn (4-0) – Your remaining schedule makes Alabama’s look like cake: eight games, six of whom are ranked in the Top-15 right now.

#6. Texas A&M (5-0) – Six of your last seven are against teams ranked in the Top-24. Safe to say, the polls are going to start shaking soon!

#7. UCLA (4-0) – Finally got their offense figured out (sure, it was against the Arizona JuCo coalition) but now you have to find your defense against before Oregon comes to town on October 11th. But, don’t overlook Utah this weekend – this on screams TRAP!

#8. Baylor (4-0) – No love for the Bears, probably because they STILL haven’t played anyone.

#9. Michigan State (3-1) – The way the SEC and PAC-12 are going to beat themselves up, and the way FSU has looked vulnerable, you may just find yourself in the playoff. But, gotta take care of Nebraska first.

#10. Ole Miss (4-0) – The obligatory “I really don’t think you’re the #10 team in the country, but neither is Notre Dame, so I’ll keep you here until you lose to Alabama” ranking. I should just start doing a Top-9.

Heisman Watch:

Marcus Mariota, Oregon – The best part about Oregon’s bye is that Mariota didn’t get sacked another seven times this past weekend. And now he has Thursday night to lay the wood to UofSuck.

College Football Playoff Prediction:

#1 Florida State v. #4 Oregon

#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama

Championship: Florida State over Alabama – Again, which one of these Top-4 teams will lose? The upsets are a comin’, and it’s not a matter of it, or even when these teams lose; it’s how many times and who’s left standing – not only after the season but after the conference championships and semi-finals.

Week 6 Big Games:

Arizona @ Oregon – UofSuck is 4-0 and sixth in the nation with nearly 600 yards of total offense a game. Oregon’s defense still needs to improve, as they’re 10th in the PAC-12 in total defense, giving up nearly 450/game. And, UofSuck beat Oregon 42-16 last year. But let’s remember what happened the last time the Wildcats travelled to Eugene – they got obliterated 49-0. And Oregon hasn’t lost at home to unranked teams since they lost to Boise back in 2008. Make no mistake, UofSuck will score, but it won’t be enough since their defense is probably worse than Oregon’s. First to 60 wins: Oregon 65 UofSuck 38

Oklahoma @ TCU – Whether in the Big 12 or previously in the Mountain West, TCU has given Stoops and Company fits, either winning outright, or pushing Oklahoma down to the wire. TCU’s got the top ranked defense in the Big 12, and are at home; but OU is coming off of a bye and are ranked #1 overall in ESPN’s Power Poll Index, but this is one of those games that if Oklahoma loses, you aren’t necessarily shocked. On the road, against a great defense, and a much improved offense. Let’s go ahead and call the upset and get things shaking this year: TCU 38 Oklahoma 34.

LSU @ Auburn – Nearly identical teams when you look at offensive and defensive stats so far to start the season. Auburn’s at home, which should help, and LSU’s already shown they can be beat. But also remember, LSU was the only team to beat Auburn last year (well, until the National Championship Game). A win by LSU would throw some chaos into the SEC-West, but don’t worry; that’s going to come regardless of what happens here on Saturday night with the way the schedules are going to play out. Vegas likes Auburn by more than a TD, but I think it’ll be closer than that, even though LSU is starting a freshman QB. Special teams and turnovers will decide this one. Let’s give the nod to Auburn: 31-27.

Texas A&M @ Mississippi State – I’d normally like A&M in this one as they’re the better team, but we’ve often talked about let down games. Mississippi State is at home and off a bye, and A&M is coming off of an emotional O.T. win against Arkansas and is travelling to Mississippi for an early start time. That spells a slow start for A&M (just like we saw last week when FSU went to N.C. State). And similar to that game, the question is can Mississippi State hold off the late rally from A&M, which is going to happen, the same way they were able to against LSU? The answer is no. A&M is used to the spotlight now, and once they start scoring in the 2nd half, MSU won’t be able to respond. I like A&M 45 Mississippi St. 34.

Stanford @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame is ranked 9th in the country, despite their four opponents so far this year having zero wins against Power 5 conference. This is still Notre Dame, I guess. But, Stanford has owned Notre Dame lately, beating the Irish four out of the last five times they’ve played; the exception being in South Bend two years ago when Notre Dame stuffed Stanford on four straight runs inside the one yard line to win it 20-13 in O.T. Notre Dame has played sloppy at times this year (five turnovers last week against Syracuse), and they haven’t been tested all year, only trailing for a couple of minutes. Stanford brings the best defense in the nation, and a battle tested team that constantly plays close games and finds a way to win most of them. Unless Golson has a huge game and the Irish win the turnover margin by three or more, I don’t see a way Notre Dame prevails in this one, but as usual with most games Stanford plays, it’ll be close: Stanford 23 Notre Dame 17.

Nebraska @ Michigan State – In a likely preview of the Big 10 Championship Game, the main matchup to watch will be Abdullah (167 yards/game) and the Husker’s run game (355/game) against the Michigan State defense that is only giving up around 80/yards a game on the ground. Nebraska is 5-0 and only ranked #19 in the country which tells you something about where their program stands, especially since after this week they only have one ranked opponent on the schedule. Maybe it’s the fact that Pelini has never started 6-0 at Nebraska, or maybe it’s because Michigan State (in addition to a great defense) is putting up more than 50 a game and was well in command @ Eugene before the wheels fell off in the 2nd half? Regardless, Nebraska hasn’t played well in big road games since joining the B1G, and I still can’t forget how Nebraska needed a miracle to get by McNeese State at home a couple weeks ago. With two good offenses, but only one great defense in this one, you gotta go with Sparty: Michigan State 31 Nebraska 24.

Week 6 Game of the Week:

Alabama @ Ole Miss – Ole Miss hasn’t beaten Alabama since Eli Manning was playing QB, but this year, it’s Ole Miss that comes into the game with the #1 defense in the SEC (right now, at least). Also, Bo Wallace has more yards and TD’s than Blake Sims, despite all of the hype being given to Alabama’s offense so far this year. The biggest problem is that ‘Bama’s defense is solid, as always, and Wallace has been prone to making mental mistakes and throwing too many picks (six already this year). The lead up to this game has a big upset brewing as many think Alabama is overrated this year. But, when the dust settles, it’ll just be another step in Saban’s “process” and we’ll all say “oh yeah, Alabama is good this year.” Alabama in a squeaker: 20 to 17.





Until next time…

Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Preview

We saw two main themes this weekend: the Top-4 are all beatable, and the SEC-West is stacked (undefeated in games against everyone else, except themselves). And the two points are related since the SEC-West has four teams in the Top-10 and six in the Top-17. Also, the Big 10 is back, and the bottom of the Top-10 is getting muddier and muddier as teams start to fall (I still insist that Notre Dame is not a Top-10 team; beat Stanford in a couple weeks and we’ll talk). More on that, as we get into this Top-10 recap:

1) Of the Top-7 teams that played this weekend, only Texas A&M appears flawless, but again, outside of their opening game @ South Carolina, they haven’t played anyone (sorry, Lamar, Rice, and SMU). But that all changes this weekend. A&M eases into SEC-West play against 3-1 Arkansas, and then plays Ole Miss, Mississippi, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU as five of their last seven (and three of those are on the road). I don’t think they’re going to be winning many of those 73-3 or 58-6.

2) Of the other Top-6 teams, Alabama had the easiest time, but that was mainly because of Florida’s porous secondary. Simms nearly set the Alabama single game passing record, and Amari Cooper is now in the Heisman race after 201 yards receiving and three TD’s on only 10 catches. But, Alabama also turned it over four times. That’ll work against Florida, but not against the SEC-West. They’ve got a week to clean things up before they head over to Ole Miss on October 4th.

3) If Oregon is going to win the PAC-12 and contend in the playoff, they’ve got to get healthy on the offensive line. Despite Mariota’s ridiculous numbers (21-25 for 329 yards, 5 TD’s, and 0 INT’s), it’s not good when you’re sacked almost twice as many times as incompletions thrown (seven vs. four). Oregon’s defense has to get better too, especially with some other high powered offenses coming up, specifically UofSuck in two weeks on Thursday night. Good win for Oregon, but you really shouldn’t be in a dog fight into the 4th quarter with Washington State. The Washington State team that hasn’t been good since the Ryan Leaf days, and more recently, the Washington State team that lost to Rutgers and Nevada (but hey, they did beat Portland State).

4) Three turnovers, three missed FG’s. And a loss by six to a Top-5 team. That’s how close Kansas State was to a signature win and getting themselves tossed in the playoff discussion. They held Auburn’s vaunted ground game in check, but their offense and special teams didn’t do them any favors. Still, the loss highlighted a couple key factors for all teams to remember: don’t turn the ball over, and make your FG’s. We’ve seen it time and time again how big FG’s are in college football – remember Oregon against Stanford and Alabama against LSU a couple years ago? Games both decided because the better team missed key FG’s (and not long ones, either). The other thing worth noting about this game: Thursday night games between ranked teams are usually very exciting, and often result in upsets. Next up for Thursday games: UCLA @ ASU this week.

5) Oklahoma’s been getting a lot of love from the various power rankings due to their win @ West Virginia. I think the main reason is that they beat WVU in their place by 12, whereas Alabama only beat them by 10 on a neutral field. I still think that of the Top-5, Oklahoma and Alabama both have yet to be tested (if we’re using West Virginia at the benchmark that should say something). But, what isn’t being talked about it is what role West Virginia may have in deciding the Big 12 and the playoff. They’ve already played both Alabama and Oklahoma close, and they have Baylor and Kansas State at home later this year. The Mountaineers could be playing spoiler in the Big 12.

6) I really don’t want to talk much about FSU. Sure, they beat Clemson (even though Clemson only scored on three of seven trips into the red zone) without their star QB, and now the only one in their path to the playoff and potentially another National Championship is Notre Dame. But, I’m sick of all of the media coverage around this troublemaker Winston. I do applaud FSU for suspending him for the full game rather than just a half, but his rap sheet is getting longer than most rappers, and he’s only a sophomore. I guess one good thing is that he won’t repeat as Heisman winner, and I do hope he grows up a bit, as he is a great talent. But what we’re seeing with Winston is a near direct correlation to what we’re seeing in the NFL headlines these days: many of these players have no accountability because from the time they were 12 years old, their bad behavior has been swept aside and/or covered up because of their athletic talent. And that’s just wrong. These players need to be taught that their off-the-field behavior and accomplishments are what’s going to carry them through life, not the few years they spend between the hedges. Lest they wind up like ex-Phoenix Sun Rex Chapman and countless other broke, criminal, ex-athletes.

7) Mississippi State did something that few do: roll into Death Valley on a Saturday night and beat LSU. But, they almost did what so many others do – allow 4th quarter comeback victories to Les Miles and crew. Despite sucking it up for 3+ quarters, and being down 24 early in the 4th, at the end LSU had the ball and a chance to win. What a wild final few minutes full of, in my opinion, poor coaching decisions. LSU scored with 12+ minutes remaining in the 4th and chose to go for two to cut the lead to 16. The math may add up (cut the lead down to two TD’s and two two-point conversions), but the probabilities do not – there’s no way you’re going to get three TD’s and three two-point conversions in a row. Then, Miss St had a chance to kick a FG to go back up 21, but went for it instead and got stuffed. Then LSU scores again, and now really has to go for two (I guess) and they miss again. Finally, Miss St gives the ball back to LSU and they score quickly and kick the PAT to make it 34-29 and then wind up with ball again in the closing seconds. Had Miles just kicked the PAT’s earlier in the 4th, it’s probably a 34-31 game, and they only need a FG to tie, rather than a Hail Mary to win. That’s why they always say to avoid going for two early.

8) Speaking of Hail Mary’s, in a game no one watched, UofSuck scored 36 points against Cal. In the 4th quarter. Including the game winning TD on a 47-yard heave as time expired to win 49-45. All I gotta say about that is: Thursday October 2nd, UofSuck @ Oregon (revenge game for the Ducks); take the over, I don’t care if it’s at 80+.

9) Finally a good week for the Big 10. They went 12-1 over the weekend, and while many of those wins were against the likes of Eastern Michigan, Massachusetts, Texas State, Southern Illinois; there were victories over Navy, Miami, and of course, Indiana’s shocking upset over Missouri. The lone loss? Michigan at the not-so-Big House against a pretty good Utah team. It’s going to be a long year for the Wolverines, and you can bet the search for a new head coach is on, as Brady Hoke is struggling both on the field and in the Midwest recruiting battles.

10) The playoff picture is largely unchanged from last week. FSU has the upper hand because of their remaining schedule. The SEC-West, the PAC-12, and Big 12 are all setting themselves up to beat each other up which is going to make the choices for #4 especially difficult. I think we all agree an undefeated FSU ACC Champion is in, so is the SEC Champion regardless of record. An undefeated PAC-12 and/or Big 12 Champion are in as well. So, that’s the easy part. If you’re FSU, Oregon, Oklahoma/Baylor, and someone in the SEC-West (other than Arkansas), win out in you’re in. But, the losses are going to come, and I’ve a couple top teams on upset alert this weekend. Bring on October….

The Top-10

#1. Florida State (3-0) – One ranked team left on your schedule: Notre Dame. Flashback to 1993’s Game of the Century?

#2. Oklahoma (4-0) – Kansas State, Baylor, and Okie State all at home.

#3. Alabama (4-0) – November 15th, v. Mississippi State. The week after @ LSU. If they survive Death Valley, they better respond at home. Remember what happened a few years back after Death Valley? A&M jumped all over Alabama in Tuscaloosa before they even knew what hit them.

#4. Oregon (4-0) – A week off to get the line healthy.

#5. Auburn (3-0) – Louisiana Tech this weekend, then it’s LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Ole Miss, A&M, Georgia; a break with Samford, and then the Iron Bowl. Wow.

#6. Texas A&M (4-0) – Other than Alabama, your schedule may be the most favorable in the SEC-West, if there is such a thing as a favorable SEC-West schedule this year.

#7. UCLA (3-0) – I vowed to keep you in the Top-10 until you lose, which will be sooner rather than later…

#8. Baylor (3-0) – Five more games to get fat before travelling to Norman on November 8th.

#9. Michigan State (2-1) – Let’s face it, despite the woes of the B1G, MSU loss is still more impressive than anyone else’s, and they should run the table.

#10. Arizona State (3-0) – I can’t have BYU or Notre Dame here; so it’s ASU for now.

Heisman Watch:

Marcus Mariota, Oregon – More TD’s than incompletions this week, and no INT’s to date this year. But, Amari Cooper from Alabama is officially on your heels.

College Football Playoff Prediction:

#1 Florida State v. #4 Oregon – Let’s put the point spread at FSU -2.5.

#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama – I’d set it at Alabama -3.5.

Championship: Florida State over Alabama – Though I’m starting to lean a little more towards Oregon v. Alabama.

Week 5 Big Games:

Arkansas @ Texas A&M – Just about every week from now on, the SEC-West is going to feature their own playoff on the road to the SEC Championship and the College Football Playoff. The first big test for A&M within the West, and it’s an Arkansas team that is the only unranked team in the SEC West right now. And it’s going to stay that way. A&M 45 Arkansas 20

Florida State @ N.C. State – A huge, emotional, close win at home for FSU over a rival; followed by a road game against a 4-0 N.C. State team. Don’t laugh. There will be a letdown. Just how big will it be, and can N.C. State capitalize? Ah, no. Florida State firing on all cylinders leading up to their October 18th game against Notre Dame. FSU 58 N.C. State 17.

Week 5 Game of the Week:

UCLA @ Arizona State – Thursday nighter in the desert, and both teams are beat up at QB. Hundley should play, but 5th year starter Taylor Kelly is out for ASU. UCLA hasn’t looked good all year, but has found ways to win all their games. ASU is looking better than expected, but they really haven’t been tested yet. That’ll change in the next six weeks at they take on UCLA, USC, Stanford, Washington, Utah, and Notre Dame (currently a combined 17-2). Without Kelly, ASU is going to be a bit more one dimensional on offense, but D.J. Foster is up to the task (he was the #3 rusher in the country before their bye week last week). That bodes well for ASU if they can keep it close, and they can considering all three of UCLA’s games have been decided by a TD or less. Upset in the desert: ASU 34 UCLA 27.




Until next time…

Week 3 Recap and Week 4 Preview

Three weeks in, and we know this much: there is no SEC fatigue. We’ve heard about it for years, yet the results are still the same. The conference has eight teams ranked in the Top 18. Hell, the SEC West alone has five in the Top-10. I said it in my preseason post; I don’t see a way the SEC does not get two teams in the playoff. But, the biggest reason that scenario won’t happen is the SEC East has already beaten each other up, and the SEC West will get around to that in due time. The only way the SEC gets two teams in is if they wind up with a one loss team that doesn’t make the conference championship (like Alabama last year). I just don’t see a way the committee votes in essentially a rematch of a conference championship. But remember, four out of the last five years, the SEC has had two teams in the final four at the end of the year anyway. I’ve been saying all year it is going to happen, but the more I watch the SEC (particularly the West) play, I see a bunch of great teams, but not one or two incredibly dominant teams like we’ve seen the last several years. So, throw in injuries, schedules, and other factors (these still are 18-20 year old kids we’re talking about) and the more realistic scenario is that the SEC does indeed only get one team in. That’s good news for Oregon and others, as we get into this Top-10 recap:

1) That parity is showing itself throughout college football. Nine of the current Top-25 teams already have one loss. No one has looked really dominant outside of Baylor, and they haven’t played anyone. Teams are already victims of the “what have you done for us lately” mentality from the pollsters. USC beat Stanford, but now is ranked behind them because of their loss @ Boston College. Georgia just lost to South Carolina but is still ranked ahead of them, because of South Carolina’s loss to A&M (which outside of Michigan State’s loss to Oregon, is still the best loss of the season so far). Why? Preseason polls. Thankfully, polls won’t make up any formal part of the committee’s rankings and head-to-head will make up a big part of their decisions (as it should, like when Notre Dame beat FSU in 1993 and finished second behind FSU for that National Championship – yeah, I’m still not over that). Side bar: that was also the year Auburn finished 12-0 and #4 in the polls. Oh how things have changed in 20 years. Can you imagine an SEC team finishing undefeated in not in the Top 2? (Then again, let’s just forget about the pesky NCAA probation that Auburn team was under).

2) Okay – back to 2014…I think the most surprising upset over the weekend was East Carolina over Virginia Tech. Va Tech had just gone in to the Horseshoe and beaten Ohio State and then found themselves down 21-0 to East Carolina in the 1st quarter (and it easily could’ve been 38-0). They just didn’t look like the same team that beat Ohio State the week before.

3) USC on the other hand, showed serious defensive weaknesses last weekend against Stanford. The difference was that Boston College actually scored as they marched up and down the field against USC. Stanford did the same thing, but just didn’t capitalize. I think Stanford’s biggest weakness (as I’ve mentioned many times before) is that they play a style of ball very conducive to close games, and that often costs them against good teams. And I think part of that is coaching. I love Shaw as a coach, but I’m not sold on his ability to manage a game the way a Saban or a Miles or Sumlin do. Let’s look back at Stanford’s losses this year and the last two years. 2014: lost to USC by three, 2013; lost to Utah by six, USC by three, and Michigan State by four; 2012: lost to Washington by four and Notre Dame by seven (in O.T.). All of their losses the last two plus years have been by seven or less. Now, they have won their share of close games against good teams as well (2012: USC by seven, Oregon State by four, Oregon by three, UCLA by three, Wisconsin by six; 2013: Washington by three, Oregon by three, Notre Dame by seven). Keep that in mind as the PAC-12 North continues this year – USC’s defense sucks, Stanford has a history of close games, so it’s Oregon who has a chance to fly away with the PAC-12 North.

4) On to the PAC-12 South, UCLA continues to be the worst 3-0 team this year, but because of the hype surrounding them in the preseason, have continued to stick around in the upper end of the polls. But now they have a week off before a Thursday game with ASU, then a visit from improved Utah, before the huge showdown with Oregon on October 11th. They then play some mediocre PAC-12 teams before closing with USC and Stanford. Last year, Auburn made a season by winning improbable game after improbable game; can UCLA do that this year? Well, their game against ASU may be a bit easier since ASU’s QB is possibly out with a still-to-be-disclosed injury (I watched the replay a dozen times and the only thing I can think is turf toe or stress fracture in the ankle; but the Devil’s coaching staff won’t talk about it at all).

5) So a couple upsets and near upsets leads us to Georgia and South Carolina as the most exciting big game of the day. South Carolina’s defense played better, but their turnovers on offense nearly cost them. In the game that no one seemed to want to win, Georgia seemed to content to play for a game tying FG late (which they of course missed) rather than get Gurley the ball and go for the go ahead score. It was fitting that the game pretty much ended with a 4th and two inch QB sneak resulting in a first down by literally one millimeter (and I actually believe they got that spot right). So, the SEC East is wide open with a combined conference record of 2-4 and Florida sitting in the best position right now (which is of course going to change soon).

6) The long season from the Longhorns got even longer when they couldn’t even execute the coin toss properly against UCLA. UCLA won the toss and deferred to the second half, and Texas turned around and elected to play defense, essentially giving UCLA a free possession, which in turn helped UCLA pull out a victory. That was the second oddest coin toss result I’ve seen; followed by the one where Jerome Bettis (playing for the Steelers) clearly called tails, and the ref said “he called heads; heads is the call.”

7) Despite youth, suspensions, injuries, and academic inquiries, Notre Dame is off to a 3-0 start for the second time in three years (and only the first time they’ve done that in 25 years. Wow). They’ve got a week off before Syracuse, and then Stanford comes to South Bend. The polls have the Irish in the Top 10, but I do not. Golson has been playing well, and defense looks pretty good, but looking at this team and their schedule, 9-3 would be a miracle. That isn’t Top-10 material.

8) Virginia has now beaten a ranked team (Louisville) and should’ve beaten another ranked team (UCLA). Are they going to be the sleeper team in the ACC to make some noise? We’ll know more after they travel to BYU this weekend to take on another underrated team. Looking at BYU’s schedule, it’s hard to see a loss out there (v. Nevada, @ UCF, @ Cal, maybe?).

9) Much like Virginia Tech, Oregon forgot to show up in the first quarter. But, well, it was against Wyoming, not East Carolina, and Oregon isn’t Virginia Tech. When the dust settled, Oregon had blown out the Cowboys, helped in part by a defense that forced three turnovers. If Oregon stays healthy on offense, and if their defense can continue to generate some turnovers, they’ll be just fine. Another cupcake this weekend against Washington State, and then UofSuck comes to Eugene on Thursday October 2nd and the Ducks have revenge on their mind for that one.

10) I keep saying this is the year that the PAC-12 overtakes the SEC as the best overall conference. Then USC loses to unranked Boston College, UofSuck struggles with Nevada, and UCLA barely survives a bad Texas team. The SEC took care of business in non-con play this weekend, with the exception of Tennessee losing to Oklahoma; but even then the Vols looked better against the Sooners than many thought. Oh well, just another year of SEC supremacy, I guess.

The Top-10

#1. Florida State (2-0) – Chance for a statement game this weekend against Clemson. You’ve owned the Tigers in Tallahassee the last twenty years.

#2. Oklahoma (3-0) – A solid defense and a pretty good offense. Oh, and Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State all at home.

#3. Alabama (3-0) – Schedule is shaping up nicely; @ Ole Miss after a bye, A&M at home, and @ LSU after a bye.

#4. Oregon (3-0) – Only two currently ranked teams remaining on the schedule (@ UCLA and v. Stanford), and the huge strength of schedule win over Michigan State. Still need to win the PAC-12 to make it to the playoff though.

#5. Auburn (2-0) – Of your remaining schedule, seven are in the Top 20. Good luck with that.

#6. LSU (3-0) – @ Auburn in a few weeks. But first you need to take care of pesky Mississippi State.

#7. UCLA (3-0) – Overrated or underachiever? We’ll know more next Thursday when you take on ASU. Now, get healthy.

#8. Baylor (3-0) – Five more preseason games until November 8, @ Oklahoma. You better keep scoring ~60 a game; style points will matter for you.

#9. Texas A&M (3-0) – Still not sold on A&M, but you’ve a few weeks to solidify your Top-10 ranking before that brutal schedule kicks in. A little hint, out of Ole Miss, Alabama, UL Monroe, Auburn, and Missouri, I wouldn’t have scheduled UL Monroe after a bye.

#10. Arizona State (3-0) – But only by default. I can’t have another SEC team in my Top-10 as the losses are going to come eventually. And I can’t have Notre Dame here; they’re just not a Top-10 team (right now, at least). And, ASU has a bye, so it “bye’s” me another week to figure out #10. And finally with their next three games v. UCLA, @ USC, and v. Stanford we’ll know soon enough is ASU is Top-10 material.

Heisman Watch:

Marcus Mariota, Oregon – Over/under on how many times his dive into the endzone will be shown on preview commercials or Heisman updates? I’m thinking 17.5.

College Football Playoff Prediction:

#1 Florida State v. #4 Oregon – FSU is one of the few teams that can match Oregon’s speed, and their defense is as good as their offense.

#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama – I just want to see this matchup in a game that matters, not some crappy BCS bowl game that Alabama doesn’t care about - if nothing else, for the press blurbs from Stoops and Saban.

Championship: Florida State over Alabama – Until there’s reason to believe otherwise, I’m sticking with this. FSU is a three TD favorite against a ranked Clemson team this weekend, and Alabama is back to that usual 42/10 scoring/defense average.

Week 4 Big Games:

Auburn @ Kansas State – As most are gearing up for their conference schedules, we get a nice Thursday match up on ranked non-con teams in a game that does have some national implications. Auburn’s on the road, and Kansas State doesn’t feel like they’re getting any respect in the Big 12. A win over a Top 5 team could certainly add Kansas State into the discussion. But, Auburn’s too strong, and KSU nearly lost to Iowa State last week. Iowa State! Keep an eye on the forecast though. The rain may be the only thing that can slow down the Tiger. Auburn 45 Kansas State 17

Florida @ Alabama – Florida needed triple O.T. to topple Kentucky, but now they stumble into Tuscaloosa with a hungry Alabama team ready to get rolling into SEC play. Florida’s going to come out excited, but it won’t take long for Alabama to take over and control the game. Just another step in the process for Saban and the Tide. Alabama 38 Florida 13.

Week 4 Game of the Week:

Clemson @ Florida State – Remember that leading up to last year’s Clemson/FSU game, it was Clemson that was higher ranked and had national championship ambitions. Of course, FSU clobbered Clemson and ran away with the Championship. Florida State hasn’t played well yet this year, but Clemson doesn’t have the Boyd to Watkins connection anymore and their defense isn’t stellar. And, FSU has owned Clemson in Tallahassee in recent times: winning 10 out of the last 11. Florida State 31 Clemson 10




Until next time…

Week 2 Recap and Week 3 Preview

It’s one of my biggest pet peeves when the pollsters move a team way down in the polls for winning, or worse when they move someone way up when the teams above them keep winning. If you really felt Oregon was the #2 team in the country, why did you wait for them the beat Michigan State to make them #2? Especially when Alabama shut out their opponent in a lightning shortened game. Now, that being said, one team that does deserve to move down (despite winning) is UCLA. Yikes, two wins by the narrowest of margins against Virginia and Memphis? That’s not a good start for what many have predicted to be the PAC-12 winners. But, we’ll know more about UCLA when they take on Texas this weekend and when they travel to the desert (or is it rain forest?) to take on ASU on Thursday September 25th. But, in the meantime, I’m moving UCLA down in my poll.

1) The playoff picture got a bit clearer, as the Big 10 is obviously not going to make it. Not a good week at all for that conference. When your shining moments are Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland staring off 2-0; you’ve got problems. The bigger problem is when in the hell did Rutgers and Maryland join the Big 10?

2) Really the only chance for the Big 10 is for Nebraska to run the table. But, the Husker’s have tough road games at Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Iowa. And the Husker’s road resume isn’t very good since joining the B1G. Their home resume almost took a big hit this weekend against FCS McNeese State. If it wasn’t for Abdullah’s heroics in the final minute, Nebraska probably loses that game in O.T.

3) I don’t know why, but I always take great pleasure in seeing Ohio State lose, especially at home. Maybe it’s because it doesn’t happen very often, or maybe it’s because when it does happen, it’s to a team like Virginia Tech that all of the sudden is playing Beamer Ball again. And that’s a good thing.

4) One more thought on the Big 10 – and that’s Michigan. Wow, what an anticlimactic finish to the Notre Dame & Michigan rivalry. I know both coaches tried to downplay the significance of it before the game, but I think Michigan took that a little too literally and completely forgot to show up. Notre Dame has looked pretty good in their first two, and if they can find a way to beat Stanford in South Bend in a few weeks, they’ll be in the Top 10 when they head off for their first true road game of the year: October 18th @ Tallahassee. And unless FSU gets their act together, that could be an upset in the making against the Seminoles (or at least you can be sure Lou Holtz will predict it that way!).

5) I said in the USC/Stanford preview last week that Stanford “plays the type of games that are always close and can allow for weird things to happen.” Advancing all nine of their offensive possessions to inside the USC 35 yard line and walking away with 10 total points definitely fits that bill. Stanford should’ve beaten USC by 21-24 points, but instead lose by a FG because their offense and kicking game weren’t able to close to out in the red-ish zone. Sure, I’ll give USC’s defense a bit of credit too, but I’m not sold on USC yet, though they have shown that they can win games in a variety of ways this year so far. We’ll know more on October 4th when ASU brings a real offense to the Coliseum.

6) The most impressive thing I saw in the Oregon/Michigan State game was that the momentum was turned not by the Ducks explosive offense, but by their defense. Call it second half adjustments, call it conditioning, call if confidence, call it experience; but whatever you call it, Oregon finally grew up Saturday. They aren’t the flashy team that’s going to score 50+ points a game, but then give up against the Stanford’s of the world when the going gets tough. Things got tough against Sparty, and the Ducks finally responded. With the Stanford loss to USC, the PAC-12 officially goes through Eugene (especially with that road trip to Pasadena in a few weeks not looking nearly as scary). Not to say there isn’t a loss out there though; I still think the PAC-12 is going to beat each other up and when the dust settles, there likely won’t be an undefeated team left in the conference which may hurt them in playoff considerations.

7) While a few of the top ranked teams have struggled so far this year, Oklahoma, Baylor, and A&M have been lighting it up against everyone. Oklahoma and Baylor will continue to do so, until they meet on November 8th, and A&M will continue to roll for the next few weeks, but look at how their schedule closes out: v. Ole Miss, @ Alabama, @ Auburn, v. Missouri, v. LSU. Okay, there’s a UL Monroe in there as well, but does anyone think they can run that gauntlet without a loss? I sure don’t.

8) Arizona State’s offense has been looking great as expected, but it’s still a bit scary to look on the other side of the ball and see all of those ju-co transfers. That’s worked fine against Weber State and New Mexico, and will work fine against Colorado this weekend, but then their schedule goes all A&M on them: UCLA, USC, and Stanford in three straight; followed up with games against Washington and Notre Dame. It was interesting to see on one of the broadcasts that ASU is actually the PAC-12 team with the longest drought in the entire conference of not finishing in the Top-10 in the country. Looks like that’s gonna continue.

9) For our weekly comparisons of the PAC-12 versus SEC, let’s just do something to save us all the trouble in future comparisons – the Autumn Wind is kicking Vandy out of the SEC and Washington State out of the PAC-12. This week’s comment refers to defense. Who would’ve thought five years ago that the PAC-12 would be the defensive conference and the SEC would the wild west of offenses? Well, that’s what appears to have happened. So far.

10) There’s going to be some tough decisions for the committee to make if things progress as I’m anticipating. Which is, undefeated ACC and Big 12 champions, and a bunch of one and two loss teams from the PAC-12 and SEC. The Big 10 is out, and the AAC was never in. You keep hearing about SEC fatigue, but the polls have 5 SEC teams in the Top 10 compared to just two for the PAC-12. That’s why I still think there’s going to be two SEC teams in the playoff, Georgia (as a result of beating Auburn or A&M in the SEC Championship), and Alabama (as a result of one regular season loss and no SEC Championship appearance).

The Top-10

#1. Florida State (2-0) – It’s now obvious they aren’t going to cruise through every game like they did last regular season.

#2. Oklahoma (2-0) – But, Oklahoma probably will.

#3. Alabama (2-0) – Undefeated, one loss, two losses, or even three losses are all a possibility.

#4. Georgia (1-0) – The stars appear to be aligning.

#5. Oregon (2-0) – Only team with a major statement win so far.

#6. Auburn (2-0) – Not sneaking up on anyone this year, but still rolling. Errrr…..War Eaglin’….

#7. LSU (2-0) – Someone’s gonna survive the SEC West – could be Miles and Co.

#8. UCLA (2-0) – Yikes. They need to get things figured out quick.

#9. Baylor (2-0) – I can see a scenario lining up where you’re the only undefeated team.

#10.USC (2-0) – Nice win over Stanford, but let’s be honest; they left A LOT of points out there in your red zone.

Heisman Watch:

Marcus Mariota, Oregon – Bad time for a bye week for Gurley; Mariota leads a second half comeback against Michigan State, and is still my pick for the Heisman. He wasn’t flashy, but he didn’t make any errors; and he showed a maturity and confidence that Oregon overall has lacked when falling behind the last couple of years. But, this weekend Georgia has South Carolina while Oregon has Wyoming. And neither team plays anyone of consequence for the next few weeks so it may leave the door open for someone else to sneak into the picture. But for now it’s Mariota and Gurley running neck and neck.

College Football Playoff Prediction:

#1 Florida State v. #4 Georgia

#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama

Championship: Florida State over Alabama – So many uncertainties still, especially with how poorly (or at least underachieving) the top ranked teams (outside of Oregon and Auburn) have played so far. But, I’ll stick with this for now.

Week 3 Big Games:

UCLA v. Texas – Desperation for both teams. UCLA was supposed to run away with the PAC-12, but they’re not even to conference play yet and they’ve almost found ways to lose to Virginia and Memphis. Texas was blown out by BYU (again), and is still searching for their identity under Charlie Strong. The game’s at a “neutral” site, but in Texas; but UCLA is more experienced, and already tested (though, they shouldn’t have been tested by Virginia or Memphis). Texas can pull the upset, but they don’t. UCLA gets back on track right before conference play. UCLA 41 Texas 27.

Week 3 Game of the Week:

Georgia @ South Carolina – It’s only week 3, but this is probably the SEC Semi-final. Despite losing to A&M in week 1, and struggling a bit with East Carolina, the Gamecocks are back at home. Georgia’s off a bye and can really distance themselves not only in the race for the SEC East, but also for a solid shot at the playoff. South Carolina had won three straight in the series before last year’s loss, but Georgia had won 7 out of 8 before that. Look for the same game plan Georgia had against Clemson: a steady dose of Gurley, early and often, and look for the same result. Georgia 45 South Carolina 24.


Until next time…

Week 1 Recap and Week 2 Preview

After week 1, we officially have more questions than answers. Well, except for one question we now know the answer to: no, South Carolina won’t win the SEC, won’t get into the playoff, and probably won’t even compete in the SEC East. Ouch. It’s one thing to lose the opening game; it’s another to do so at home as a double digit favorite while giving up the most yardage ever to a pass happy team that had lost their QB, best WR, and starting left tackle to the NFL draft. Good thing I didn’t have South Carolina making a run this year to the playoff. Oops. Enough about that, let’s take a look a few more things we learned (and a few more questions we have) after week 1:

1) In our search for answers, you can divide week 1 into 1) teams that didn’t play anyone and took care of business (looking at you Oregon, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Baylor, Stanford, Ole Miss, ASU, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Missouri), 2) teams that had some decent opponents but didn’t really struggle (specifically Auburn and USC), 3) ranked matchups (A&M/South Carolina, Georgia/Clemson, and LSU/Wisconsin) where the better teams clearly one, and 4) four games where top-10 teams struggled (FSU, Alabama, Ohio State, and UCLA). Of those, the Ohio State game was the least of a surprise. Navy is a good team, and Ohio State has to re-tool that offense. Still, when all was done, Ohio State had won comfortably. FSU, Alabama, and UCLA? Not so much…

2) Sure, UCLA had to travel across the country and play essentially a 9am (Pacific time kickoff) against an average Virginia team; but they needed three defensive TD’s to pull off the victory and avoid the upset. That’s not a good start for a team many have winning the PAC-12, getting into the playoff, and having a QB in the Heisman discussion (big step backwards for Hundley).

3) Florida State found out exactly how a hard it is to repeat in their opening week challenge against a pesky Oklahoma State team that just wouldn’t go away. I’ll call it a combination of rust and cockiness for the Seminoles, but I also am already looking forward to Bedlam on December 6th. If Oklahoma State can continue to play like they did on Saturday, and build upon that through their Big 12 schedule, they could have the chance to knock Boomer Sooner out of the playoff. The loss did pretty much eliminate Oklahoma State from the playoff though, especially since there are probably a couple more losses on the table.

4) We’ve seen Alabama open up their season against quality Power 5 conference teams over and over, and the results are always the same: ‘Bama up by two to three TDs after one, giving up a FG or fewer by the end of the half, and then coasting to an easy victory. But, at halftime against WVU, they were only up by a FG, and had already given up 17 points. Still, the victory really wasn’t ever in doubt in the 2nd half, and I think Alabama will be just fine, especially if Sims keeps handing it off 40 or more times to Yeldon and Henry. The biggest concern for Alabama right now is injuries – more on that later.

5) Maybe these were just pre-season jitters and adjustments for new personnel for FSU, Alabama, and UCLA. Maybe Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Virginia are much better teams than we thought. Or maybe these teams with high expectations are already feeling the pressure of the playoff system. My thought is that it’s a combination of the first two, and that the latter certainly didn’t come into play this early in the season.

6) Of all the ranked versus unranked games I found most impressive was USC’s thrashing of Fresno State, especially with all of the off the field drama surrounding USC the last couple of weeks. Now, Fresno isn’t the team they were last year, but for the Trojans to put on a performance like they did showed that Sarkisian is in control of this team. Big test in Palo Alto this weekend to see what could wind up being a preview of the PAC-12 Championship later this year.

7) Les Miles in the only coach in the country that could pull off a fake punt call with the wrong personnel in the game, have it succeed, and have it result in yet another come from behind win. Wisconsin was in control of that game for nearly three quarters. But in the end, LSU knows how to win close games, and Wisconsin sure knows how to lose them. It’s nothing new for the Badgers to seemingly snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory time and time again in big games recently. The best stat from this one? LSU is now 22-21 in games under Les Miles where they trailed entering the fourth quarter. That’s impressive.

8) Many are saying the most impressive performance in week 1 was Georgia taking down Clemson in Athens. I have to agree, especially how the game unfolded – Clemson takes a 21-14 lead and then Heisman hopeful Todd Gurley runs the ensuing kick back 100 yards for the equalizer, and then adds two more long TD runs in the 4th to seal it. This may be Georgia’s year finally, with a fairly favorable SEC schedule. But they’ve gotta take care of business next week against South Carolina.

9) I still think the PAC-12 is going to wind up being the better, deeper conference compared to the SEC this year. But, they didn’t help my case this weekend. Sure, Vandy turned it over seven times and lost to Temple; but Washington barely survived Hawaii, Washington State lost at home to Rutgers, preseason conference champ pick UCLA struggled against Virginia, and Colorado lost at home to Colorado State. And, Cal beating Northwestern isn’t nearly as impressive as Georgia beating Clemson and LSU beating Wisconsin. So, week 1 advantage goes to the SEC. Week 2 goes to the PAC-12 just because of the Oregon-Michigan State game. They toughest SEC game this weekend is East Carolina @ South Carolina. Then again, UTSA is going to beat UofSuck this weekend which won’t do the PAC-12 any favors.

10) Several teams have had some significant injuries already in week 1. I wonder how that will wind up affecting the playoff committee’s selections come December? We see it in college basketball all of the time – a team deserving of a one seed gets bumped down to a two or three seed (or worse) because of late injuries. Will something like that happen with football? Think about this scenario – an undefeated Alabama barely beats Auburn at the end of the year and loses Yeldon due to injury and he’s out for the SEC Championship Game against a one-loss Georgia team. Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship, but the playoff is three weeks away and Yeldon will be back by then. Does a one-loss, non-SEC Champion Alabama get into the playoff (especially considering the SEC Champion regardless of number of losses is in)? Well, time will tell. And as I’ve always said in the Autumn Wind – these things always have a way of working themselves out, especially in the last month of the season.

The Top-10

#1. Florida State (1-0) – If you play Clemson as close as you played Oklahoma State, I’m dropping you like third period French.

#2. Oklahoma (1-0) – @ West Virginia on September 20th looks a bit more interesting all of the sudden.

#3. UCLA (1-0) – Your offense better get things together or you’re gonna get hooked by the Horns in two weeks.

#4. Alabama (1-0) – You win in week 1, your two-headed running back committee goes for over 200 yards, Sims throws for 250, and the defense was pretty good. And everyone is saying “what’s wrong with Alabama?” Well, just part of the “process.”

#5. Oregon (1-0) – My goal in keeping you outside of the Top 4 right now is so you earn it; rather than the last three years of disappointment. That, and this week’s matchup against a very similar style to that of Stanford.

#6. Michigan State (1-0) – Big 10’s best hope to get into the playoff is for you to win the September Rose Bowl.

#7. Auburn (1-0) – Brutal schedule upcoming: @ Kansas State, v. LSU, @ Mississippi State, v. South Carolina, @ Ole Miss, v. Texas A&M, @ Georgia, @ Alabama. With that schedule, two losses may get you in the Top 4.

#8. Georgia (1-0) – Take care of South Carolina on the road in a couple weeks, and a 9-0 start is well within reach before Auburn comes to Athens on November 15th.

#9. LSU (1-0) – A&M should probably be up here, but the win against Wisconsin is going to prove to be more impressive as every week goes on.

#10.Baylor (1-0) – ‘Cuz I just can’t have 5 SEC teams in the Top 10.

Heisman Watch:

Marcus Mariota, Oregon – But, he’s going to need a solid performance and a win against Michigan State this weekend; as everyone is talking about Gurley from Georgia (and rightfully so – that was a Heisman performance in week 1 against Clemson).

College Football Playoff Prediction:

#1 Florida State v. #4 Georgia

#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama

Championship: Florida State over Alabama – I’ve got a bad feeling this prediction isn’t going to last long…but which team will be the first to fall? Considering the schedule and injuries, it’ll be Alabama. Then again, for the remainder of September, FSU’s schedule is much more difficult than Alabama’s.

Week 2 Big Games:

USC @ Stanford – Shaw and Sark don’t like each other. USC wants to go fast, Stanford wants to go slow. Stanford has lost of experience (especially on defense), but USC has seemed to pick up Sark’s system in no time. Stanford’s won 17 straight in a row at home (longest streak in the nation), but plays the type of games that are always close and can allow for weird things to happen (see @ Utah last year). I really like Stanford’s program and what Shaw’s done, and I absolutely hate USC, but I think USC pulls the shocker: 27 to 24.

Michigan @ Notre Dame – The last scheduled game between these two rivals, and Michigan looks to play spoiler under the lights in South Bend. Notre Dame is the better team this year, but that rarely matters in this series (though the home team has won the last three). With the exception of last year, the previous four were decided by six or fewer points, including several with multiple comebacks in the final minutes. I hate picking a winner in this game, so I’ll just pick Michigan. If they win I’ll be happy I’m right, and if Notre Dame wins, I’ll gladly stand up and sway while singing “Notre Dame, Our Mother” one last time in this series. Michigan 34 Notre Dame 31.

Week 2 Game of the Week:

Michigan State @ Oregon – If anyone other than Stanford can slow down the Ducks, it’s Michigan State. Very similar styles – ball control offense, and a swarming defense. But, Stanford has the experience of playing Oregon’s speed every year. Michigan State does not. And, it’s a long road trip for the Spartans. Finally, Oregon has a chip on their shoulder and has a chance in the national spotlight to say “don’t forget about us.” Look for the Ducks to fly high in Eugene: Oregon 41 Michigan State 20.


Until next time…

Week 1 Preview

On the drive home from work the last couple of weeks, the angle of the sun has been slightly different. The air is a bit colder, the mosquitos a bit worse, and the DVR is cranking away recording all new episodes of “Bering Sea Gold.” That can only mean one thing: it’s back!

So, with only a couple days to go until the 2014-2015 kick-off, college football is back, and the Autumn Wind is back for its 8th season. In this preseason edition, I’ll list my top things to watch for this year; I’ll offer up my games of the week; and my pre-season Top-10, why they’ll win it, and why they won’t. We’ll also get into the four team playoff, and how it’s a guarantee that the SEC will take two of those spots. I’ll pick the conference winners, Heisman winner, playoff participants, and national champs. A few rants and raves will follow, and I’ll try not bore you with details of how bad this season will be for Notre Dame – academic investigations/suspensions, one of the worst schedules in the nation (Vegas had their win total O/U at 7.5, and that was pre-suspensions) and loss of many key weapons on offense and defense. It’s going to be a long Autumn in South Bend.

For year 8 of the Autumn Wind (and for what really should be an eight team playoff), let’s look at the top 8 things to watch for this season.

Top-8 Things to Watch for This Season

1. The first year of the four team playoff is going to dominate the discussion this year. I already don’t like it, and the season hasn’t even started yet. Why? Well, I think Stanford’s coach says it best when he talks about the inequalities in scheduling within the major conferences. Some play everyone in their conference, most don’t; many have a conference championship, some don’t; some sprinkle in a bunch of gimme’s in their non-conference play; others at least try to schedule some quality non-conference games (which of course is tough to predict many years out how quality those games will be when they actually arrive). But most of all – six major conferences (well, five; we don’t really count the Big E….errr, AAC) and only four spots in the playoffs. That means, at best – and I’ll say it again, at best; one of the major conference champions won’t get into the playoff. And, this year particularly, I think there’s only two spots available, as the SEC champions is obviously in, and I believe the SEC will get a second team in the Top 4. Sure, the argument is that the playoff is designed to put the top four teams in regardless of conference, but it’s just not right that one, two, or even three major conference champions won’t make the playoff. But hey, they’ve got until 2025 to figure this all out, so let’s just have fun with it.

2. While the SEC is clearly the #1 conference still, the PAC-12 continues to rise. We all know about Stanford and Oregon. But, they may not even win the conference. UCLA is the top dog right now, and Washington, USC, and ASU are all on the rise as well. Now, let’s just forget about Washington State, Colorado, and Utah…

3. Ohio State was in most people’s Top 5, but with the loss of their Heisman candidate QB, there is serious doubt as to how Ohio State will perform. They’re certainly talented enough all over the place to win games even with a new QB, but their schedule isn’t going to do them any favors. They only have one ranked team on the schedule: @ Michigan State. Their non-con is Navy, Virginia Tech, Kent State, and Cincinnati (that’s one reference, Ryan); certainly not going to get them many points from the committee. So, basically, their season comes down to the Michigan State game. If they can scrap together an undefeated season, they will be in the Top 4, but of all the teams out there, they have the littlest room for error.

4. I take that back. Marshall has the littlest room for error. There’s talk that they’ll run the table and make a play for #4, but that’s just not going to happen. I hope they go undefeated and have a great season, I really do. But they play no one. Literally. I think their toughest game is FIU. Even if every other team in the country has two losses, Marshall doesn’t deserve to be in the Top 4. Put them in a bowl game against someone from a power conference, but don’t waste a spot in the playoff on them. The difference between the NCAA basketball tourney (where we all love a Cinderella making a run to the Sweet 16, or even Elite 8, or occasionally Final Four) and football is the Cinderalla’s don’t belong in a four team playoff. Before the “but what about Boise State over Oklahoma?” talk starts, remember that Boise was a helluva team that year and Oklahoma was overrated (and Boise was actually ranked higher than OU in that game).

5. For major conference predictions, I like Alabama beating South Carolina to take the SEC, Michigan State clawing it out against Wisconsin to win the Big 10, Florida State over North Carolina the ACC, UCLA over Oregon in the PAC-12, and Oklahoma in the Big 12.

6. I know this year is the last scheduled game between Notre Dame and Michigan. And I know that Notre Dame probably won’t ever join a conference, even though they’re now trending away from a Big 10 dominated schedule to an ACC dominated schedule. And, they’ll always retain Navy, USC, and Stanford on the schedule. But dammit, find a way to make that Michigan-Notre Dame game a permanent annual game. Frankly, college football is just better when that game is always on the schedule every year.

7. It’ll be interesting to watch how some of the big name coaches perform at their new schools: Charlie Strong at Texas, Sarkisian at USC, Bobby Petrino back to Louisville again, and Chris Petersen moving over from Boise State to Washington. But, the most intriguing move I’ll be watching is Lame Kiffin as the offensive coordinator at Alabama. It’s no secret I’m not a fan of Kiffin, mainly because he’s been an over paid under achiever living off the laurels of his dad and the promise of success when he never sticks around to see it through (mainly because he gets run out of town within a year or two, with a fat wallet). But, as horrible as he is, well was, as a head coach either in college or the NFL, he is a very good offense mind, and when plugged into the right situation, he should excel. And if anyone knows how to plug people into the right situation, it’s Nick Saban. Perfect timing too, with a full stable of running backs to provide a little relief to a new QB at Alabama.

8. It was nearly seven years ago when Appalachian State upset then #5 Michigan in the Big House, and lost the following week to Oregon. Notre Dame was upset by Georgia Tech in week 1, and destroyed by Penn State in week 2. That marked the first time ever in this history of college football that both Michigan and Notre Dame started the season 0-2, and marked the first time since 1909 that both Michigan and Notre Dame were unranked when they played. Those two weeks and what transpired were what spawned what we now know at the Autumn Wind. The last couple of years I keep swearing up and down that I’m done with this blog, but then I get the itch again right before the season starts. Let’s enjoy the ride once again!

Games of the Week
Week 1: Wisconsin v. LSU – Huge implications for strength of schedule points for later in the season. But both are still going to need to win their conferences if they want to get into the playoff.

Week 2: Michigan State @ Oregon – It’s like the Rose Bowl. In September. In Oregon.

Week 3: Georgia @ South Carolina – It’s like the SEC East semifinal.

Week 4: Clemson @ Florida State – FSU’s only major test of the year, and they’ll probably be a 16.5 point favorite.

Week 5: UCLA @ ASU – Big road test for UCLA. It’ll still be hot in the desert.

Week 6: LSU @ Auburn – Both need a win to keep their hopes alive in the NFL Southeast, I mean SEC West.

Week 7: Oregon @ UCLA – Preview of the PAC-12 Championship?

Week 8: Texas A&M @ Alabama – No Johnny Football, but let’s not forget how much Saban hated these games the last two years, even though Alabama won last year.

Week 9: South Carolina @ Auburn – Will South Carolina be fighting to stay on top in the SEC or just fighting to play spoiler?

Week 10: Stanford @ Oregon – Can the Trees make it three in a row over the Ducks?

Week 11: Alabama @ LSU – Always one of the most entertaining and competitive games of the year. It usually plays like an NFL game.

Week 12: Auburn @ Georgia – Bulldogs usually peak late. A victory here keeps them in contention for both the SEC and the playoff.

Week 13: USC @ UCLA – UCLA has owned USC recently. They’ll need for that to continue to win the PAC-12 and get to the playoff.

Week 14: Auburn @ Alabama – Iron Bowl. ‘Nuff said.

Week 15: Kansas State @ Baylor – Will they be playing for second place in the Big 12, or for a shot at the playoff?

The Pre-Season Top-10

#1. Florida State – No brainer here; the National Champs return their Heisman trophy QB, and they’ll be double digit favorites in every game this year. They only have two preseason ranked teams (Clemson and Notre Dame), and both are at home (as is the end of season matchup against Florida). Assuming they don’t lose @ NC State following the Clemson game, Florida State should roll into the playoff as the #1 seed.

#2. Oklahoma – Fourteen returning starters, a favorable schedule (both Kansas State and Baylor @ home), and a lot of momentum after knocking around Alabama in their bowl game last year propel Oklahoma into #2. We’ll also get to see if the Big-12 not having a conference championship game helps or hurts their chances at getting into the top 4.

#3. UCLA – Oregon should be the pick here, but since Oregon can’t beat Stanford, and since UCLA has Oregon, USC, and Stanford at home, I’m giving the nod to UCLA in the PAC-12. They do have tough games at ASU and Washington, but they’ll also pick up a bit of non-con credibility with Texas and Virginia on the schedule. Besides, you gotta have a Jim Mora (in this case, Junior) involved if we’re talking “PLAYOFFS???? Don’t talk about playoffs!.......Playoffs???”

#4. Alabama – For one second Alabama was looking like a three peat, and the next second they had their hearts ripped out by Auburn. And, I agree with Saban; they didn’t care about the bowl game against Oklahoma, so that outcome means nothing to the Tide. A couple things to keep in mind – two of their three most recent championships came with 1st year QB’s (so the loss of McCarron isn’t huge) and three times in the last five years Alabama wasn’t the preseason #1 (of course they went on to win it all those three years). But, the SEC West is stacked again as usual, so it’s a good thing Alabama’s non-con is West Virginia, Florida Atlantic, Southern Miss, and Western Carolina.

#5. Oregon – This may be Oregon’s best all-around team yet, but until they can beat Stanford, they’re going to have a hard time getting into the Top-4. The week 2 test against Michigan State will surely show us if they’re able to win a physical, grind-it-out game, because that’s exactly what Sparty is going to try to do.

#6. Michigan State – If, and it’s a big if, Michigan State can go to Autzen in week 2 and win against Oregon, they should be able to sneak into the Top 4. Ohio State is crushed with the loss of Miller, and they don’t have to play Wisconsin. They basically just have to beat Nebraska at home (and we all know how poor Nebraska has been on the road in Big 10 play).

#7. Auburn – Teams have had all off-season to prepare for Gus Malzahn’s unique offense that almost sprung the Tiger’s from unranked to National Champs last year. But their schedule is brutal: seven ranked teams, and then a potential SEC Championship and playoff semi-final before getting to play for a National Championship again. Yeah, not gonna happen.

#8. South Carolina – A team that just seems to get a bit better every year, South Carolina has high hopes that this is finally the year they win the SEC. We’ll certainly know if they have a shot right away – before October hits they’ll have played three ranked teams. Of all the teams out there, a four team playoff may benefit South Carolina the most; they may not even need to play in the SEC Championship to sneak into the Top 4.

#9. Baylor – If Oklahoma doesn’t win the Big 12, Baylor should. The highest scoring team in the country has a cakewalk of a schedule, and while I mentioned earlier the Big 12 doesn’t benefit from a Conference Championship game; the final week does give us a default Big 12 four team playoff with Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State and Baylor v. Kansas State.

#10. Wisconsin – Speaking of favorable schedules, after LSU on August 30th, Wisconsin doesn’t play another ranked team until Nebraska on November 15th. And they completely avoid Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State. If Wisconsin can roll through LSU in week 1, they could be a team that sneaks into #4.

Heisman Watch:

Marcus Mariota, Oregon – They don’t like giving the Heisman to the same person twice. The expectations are just too high. So, Winston is out. Mariota is in for one big reason: week 2 versus Michigan State. If he (and Oregon) shines in that game, Mariota can cruise to the Heisman.

College Football Playoff Prediction:

#1 Florida State v. #4 South Carolina

#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama

Wait, I’ve South Carolina at #8 in my poll, but #4 in my playoff seeds? Yep. Remember, the committee will largely throw poll position out the window in making their Top 4 selections.

Championship: Florida State over Alabama – just too many weapons for FSU, and it would be interesting if FSU repeats and starts their own dynasty by beating Alabama.

Week 1 Big Games:

Texas A&M @ South Carolina – This may be the year South Carolina finally wins the SEC. And, A&M is ranked mainly because of their laurels or the last two years. Their defense is still horrible, and their offense won’t be able to score enough to win any shootouts. Vegas agrees and has South Carolina as double digit favorites. South Carolina 31 Texas A&M 17.

Clemson @ Georgia – No Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins for Clemson, and no Aaron Murray for Georgia, but yet again we have an intriguing opening match-up with Clemson and Georgia. Clemson is off an 11 win season last year, but lost a lot key players. Georgia never seems to start the season well, mainly because they seem to play some giants every year early on. Georgia’s defense will be better this, not great; but still better. And Clemson’s offense will go through some growing pains without Boyd and Watkins. And, it’s in Athens. That’s enough to give the nod to Georgia 38 to 23.

Week 1 Game of the Week:

Wisconsin @ LSU – Lots of defense and power running in this matchup of Top 15 teams. Wisconsin has an eye on the Big 12 Championship and LSU is hoping to escape out of the SEC West. But, both need a win here to have an early advantage at one of the four playoff seeds. Both teams are pretty evenly matched, however, I’ll give the nod to LSU for a couple reasons: 1) SEC over Big 10 pretty much any day, 2) Wisconsin struggled last year in close games (and this one will be close), and 3) under Les Miles, LSU is undefeated against ranked non-con opponents, and this is the fourth year out of five that LSU has opened with a ranked non-con opponent. Let’s take LSU, down to the wire: 24-21.

Until next time…