Week 1 Preview

Is this really year 6 of the Autumn Wind???? Boy how time flies. Ironically, the Autumn Wind started with an e-mail rant to family and friends about how crappy Notre Dame was. Sad to say, not much has changed.

Lots of things happened during this off-season, some good (a playoff is coming, well, a sorta playoff), some bad (Penn State, let’s just leave it at that), and some just bizarre (conference realignment jockeying continues; and nothing says Big 12 football like West Virginia!). But, here we are just a few days away from the 2012-2013 season, and some things haven’t changed. The SEC is stacked once again, with at least five teams in the running for not only a conference championship, but the national championship. Every other conference is playing for the final spot in the title game, as I don’t see any way that the SEC Champion won’t finish #1 or #2 in what is the final two years of this BCS failure.

In this preseason edition, I’ll list my Top-5 things to watch for this year; I’ll offer up my games of the week for each week of the season; and my pre-season Top-10, why they’ll win it, and why they won’t. Of course BCS title and Heisman trophy predictions will follow, and in typical Wind fashion, will change weekly until I get it right (I have, after all, picked the National Championship winner correctly the past five years).

Top-5 Things to Watch for This Season

1) The Big East is crumbling, and we get to watch it over the next couple of years as conference realignment really takes a toll on the Big East. Yet, they still have an automatic BCS bid for the next two years. How pissed off are two to three SEC teams, the loser of Oregon/USC, and a Big 12 and/or Big 10 team gonna be with a four loss Big East team is sitting in the Orange Bowl? To butcher a quote from the great movie “Major League:”

Random Big East player “I play for the Big East.”

Rest of the country: “I didn’t know they still had a conference.”

Random player: “Yup, we have uniforms and everything, it’s really great.”

Then again, last time we saw a Big East team in the Orange Bowl, it was West Virginia dropping 70 on Clemson back in January (not that Clemson deserved to be there either).

2) The only thing worse than Notre Dame’s schedule is their new uniforms. That noise you heard was Knute rolling over. Is it too late to add Alabama or LSU to ND’s schedule? They are after all playing @ Michigan State, @ Oklahoma, and @ USC; all three of which are in the running to win their conferences. Add in Michigan, Stanford, BYU, and a likely slip up against someone else, and Notre Dame will be lucky to go 6-6 this year.

3) Lots of familiar faces in new places this year: Terry Bowden at Akron (Akron’s equal with Auburn, right?), Rich Rod at Arizona (if it didn’t work at Michigan, it’s certainly not gonna work for UofSuck – which is fine by me), Todd Graham at Arizona State (did he really say at the pep rally that they’d be in the hunt for a national title?), Norm Chow to Hawaii (that offense could be scary good), Charlie Weis to Kansas (thought I’m sure he’s still being paid millions by Notre Dame), Bob Davie to New Mexico (wait, is he still being paid by Notre Dame too?), Jim More to UCLA (no, not “Playoffs??!?!?!!? Don’t talk about playoffs!!!!” Jim Mora; his kid), Mike Leach to Washington State (I wonder if the players are getting keys made so they can break of out of equipment closets) and of course Urban Meyer to bowl-ineligible Ohio State (making the Michigan game their bowl game).

4) Do you remember “Oh Brother, Where Art Though” when Tommy said he sold his soul to the Devil “to play this here guitar?” Well, Lame Kiffen sold his soul to the Devil to coach this USC team. I don’t know what the NCAA was thinking. Petey Carroll cheated his ass off for years and finally took off right before the Heat caught up to him (with the excuse of “it was time to move on to something different” which really means “I finally got my hand caught in the cookie jar.”). The punishment? No bowl games for a couple years, but also no restrictions in recruiting for two years. So now, two years later when scholarship restrictions finally take place, Kiffen’s got a stacked bowl eligible team, ranked #1 in the AP, with a relatively easy schedule. Thankfully, Kiffen has always shown to suck as coach, so I look for USC to lose to Oregon and maybe Stanford. Karma, USC. It’s finally gonna get you.

5) There’s been some talk that the four team “playoff” compromise is partially the result of the Alabama-LSU matchup in January that was one of the lowest rated championship games of all time. If it did help move the playoff discussion along, great. But there’s nothing stopping that from happening again in the new system (a rematch for the title). And now, starting in 2014, we’re stuck with the four team playoff format until 2025, and a secret committee that picks the four teams. Maybe we should just go back to what bowl games were in the first place? A bunch of pomp and circumstance that resulted in the AP picking a champion. At least then we knew what we had, and didn’t try to pretend that this pile of dog crap was a rose.

Predicted Games of the Week

Week 1 – Michigan v. Alabama: Two top-10 ten teams; neutral site; storied powers; what’s not to love?

Week 2 – Wisconsin @ Oregon State: Week 2 is pretty weak overall, but if Wisconsin is going to win the Big 10, they have to be able to win in a tough place like Corvallis; even though the Beavers suck this year.

Week 3 – Alabama @ Arkansas: Arkansas had a legit claim to be #3 last year, with their only loses to LSU and Alabama. The strange off season tale of coach Bobby Petrino will hurt, but this is the Hogs best bet to win the SEC; and they have both Alabama and LSU at home.

Week 4 – Kansas State @ Oklahoma: Many people see this as the default Big 12 championship game. It will be a good game; the best of week 4; but the Big 12 title runs through Morgantown (see below).

Week 5 – Wisconsin @ Nebraska: Winning at Corvallis is one thing; winning in Lincoln is another. Well, it used to be.

Week 6 – Georgia @ South Carolina: Everyone seems to be focused on LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas. Don’t count out the winner of this game; as they may have a shot at #1 or #2.

Week 7 – South Carolina @ LSU: Can South Carolina actually win back-to-back games against Georgia and LSU? Hell, it’s the SEC; most back-to-back games are against NFC North quality opponents.

Week 8 – Michigan State @ Michigan: Sparty tries to spoil what could be a magical season for Michigan. Oh, and I think there’s some other game this weekend – third weekend of October or something or other.

Week 9 – Michigan @ Nebraska: If Michigan survives Sparty, they’ll need a big road win in Lincoln to stay alive in the Big 10 Legends Division. Or is it Leaders? Or Losers. Ah, who cares.

Week 10 – Oregon @ USC; Alabama @ LSU: This could very well be the top four teams in the country playing each other by the time week 10 rolls around.

Week 11 – Arkansas @ South Carolina: Will either team still be in the hunt at this point?

Week 12 – Oklahoma @ West Virginia: Mark it down; winner of this wins the Big 12. Like I said, the Big 12 goes through Morgantown.

Week 13 – LSU @ Arkansas, Arizona State @ Arizona, Notre Dame @ USC, Michigan @ Ohio State, Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma, Oregon @ Oregon State, Auburn @ Alabama, Georgia Tech @ Georgia, Florida @ Florida State, South Carolina @ Clemson, TCU @ Texas: No point to try and pick a top game for this weekend. Can I watch them all, please?

Week 14 – Oklahoma @ TCU: Oklahoma may still need this game for a BCS birth, and TCU may need this game to prove they belong in the Big 12.

The Pre-Season Top-10

#1 Alabama (0-0) – I don’t see a reason why Alabama won’t repeat. The best offensive line in the nation, a QB who knows how to manage a game, an incredible defense (though not as good as last year’s version), and probably the best game preparation coach we’ve seen in a long while, Nick Saban. The reason they might not? The schedule: versus Michigan and @ Arkansas early; and then the game of year @ LSU on November 3^rd. But if anyone can go into Baton Rouge and win at night, it’s Alabama. And, even a loss to LSU or Arkansas may not prevent a return to the title game. We know this much – the winner of the SEC Championship will be in the title game.

#2 Oregon (0-0) – Unlike Alabama, Oregon has eight weeks to get firing on all cylinders before their first real test: November 3^rd at USC. I think this is the year for Oregon. Even if they lose @ USC, I think they have a decent shot at beating them in the PAC-12 Championship. Conversely, if they beat USC on November 3^rd, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lose the re-match. Both teams are good enough that I don’t see a way either can beat each other twice.

#3 LSU (0-0) – No honey badger, no problem, right? Well, I’m not so sure. Granted, Les Miles handles distractions better than most, but let’s not forget how exposed LSU’s offense was in both matchups with Alabama last year. The schedule is about as favorable as can be, with South Carolina and Alabama at home. They do have to travel to Florida and Arkansas, but circle October 20^th. Smack dab between home games against South Carolina and Alabama is a road trip to College Station to take on Texas A&M for the first time in SEC play. If that doesn’t scream “TRAP!!!!” I don’t know what does.

#4 USC (0-0) – The AP has the Trojans #1, which is really generous. Though, outside of Oregon, the PAC-12 is pretty weak this year. They do have road trips to Stanford and Washington, so if there’s a slip-up outside of the Oregon game, those are the ones to watch. Don’t be surprised if Barkley wins the Heisman and is a top two pick in the NFL draft.

#5 Oklahoma (0-0) – Landry Jones will put up big numbers, we know that. But, will this version of Oklahoma play some defense? The get Kansas State out of the way early, which should help the Sooners, and I still can’t believe that the Big 12 Title may run through Morgantown, West Virginia this year, but that’s what it’s looking like. October 17^th, Oklahoma @ West Virginia – sponsored of course, by Dr. Pepper.

#6 Florida State (0-0) – Most have Florida State winning the ACC, which isn’t really a surprise. They return eight starters on offense, and eight from a defense that was second in the nation against the run and only gave up ~15 a game. They have Clemson and Florida at home; but there toughest game (no surprise) will be Thursday November 8^th @ Virginia Tech. No one beats Va. Tech at home, at night, on Thursday.

#7 Wisconsin (0-0) – Many think the Big 10 title runs through the state of Michigan this year, but don’t count out the Badgers. The Leaders sub-conference is horrible, with the exception of Wisconsin, they don’t play Michigan, and have Michigan State at home. A third straight Rose Bowl appearance is likely.

#8 West Virginia (0-0) – How again does a team from the sticks in West Virginy join the Big 12 and get Oklahoma, Kansas State, and TCU at home? Geno Smith and company will light up the scoreboard, but then again so will the opposing team’s offense. I don’t know if they’ll have a chance to win the Big 12, but having Oklahoma at home will help.

#9 Michigan (0-0) – Who was the fool that voted for Michigan at #1 in the AP poll? Did Tim Jehn get a vote that I don’t know about? Michigan is glad the Rich Rod experiment is long in their rearview mirror, though expectations may be too high for Brady Hoke’s second season. We’ll know right away when they take on Alabama in week 1.

#10 Georgia (0-0) – If Georgia’s gonna make a run, this is the year. They lucked out with the schedule, probably the easiest of any SEC team. No Alabama, LSU, or Arkansas; they get South Carolina after a bye week, and get Florida at the always entertain World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. But, they have to survive a road trip to new SEC member Missouri in week 2.

Heisman Watch:

Matt Barkley, USC – Size, strength, hype, and an easy schedule make Barkley the preseason pick for the Heisman. He may even get some of the “Andrew Luck deserved it the last two years so I’m gonna vote for a PAC-12 guy.” I wonder if he’ll have to give this trophy back in a few years. Being a Heisman winner from USC isn’t always a good thing. Just ask O.J. Simpson and Reggie Bush.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Alabama v. Oregon – Ducks versus Elephants. Ducks fly fast, elephants rumble along. Very fitting for these two teams. Does the SEC win yet another BCS Championship? It looks like it.

Week 1 Big Games:

Boise State @ Michigan State – Can the Broncos continue to take on the big boys and beat ‘em on the road? Not without Kellen Moore and company. It was a fun ride the last several years, Boise; knocking off all those big boys at neutral fields; but it ends this year. Michigan State 38 Boise State 27

Clemson v. Auburn – Clemson’s ranked, Auburn isn’t. After this one, Auburn will be, and Clemson won’t. Auburn 34 Clemson 31

Week 1 Game of the Week:

Alabama v. Michigan – Saban’s been prepping for this game since the day after last year’s championship game. While on paper this looks to be a very exciting match up, let’s just all remember what SEC elite teams do to the Big 10. Alabama 30 Michigan 17

Until next time…

Bowl Preview Edition - Part II

And here’s part duex of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview Edition! Enjoy!

Ticket City Bowl – Jan. 2, 2:00pm ESPNU

Houston v. Penn State.

The first New Year’s game of the year, and each team is reeling. Penn State was passed over by three other bowls because of the scandals, and Houston was one win from a BCS game; not to mention each team is playing with an interim coach. Houston led the country in both scoring and passing yards, but didn’t play anywhere near a defense like they’ll see in this one. As it has been all year: can Penn State score enough to win? Houston is averaging 30 more a game than Penn State. That should be enough to get the Cougars a victory.

Gambling angle: This is the 2^nd Ticket City Bowl, with the underdog covering last year, and the over hitting. Despite Houston averaging 50/game, the over/under is only at 57, a testament to Penn State’s defense. Penn State is just too distracted, so let’s take Houston -5.5 and the over 57.

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl – Jan. 2, 1:00pm ESPN2

Florida v. Ohio State

Hey, I have a clever name for this bowl: the Urban Meyer bowl! What? That’s already been used? Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve heard about this game as the matchup of Meyer’s former and future teams. On paper, these teams are very similar: both struggled down the stretch after good starts, and each averaged 25/game and gave up 21/game. Ohio State is dealing with new NCAA sanctions, and Florida is playing in their own backyard. That should be enough to give the Gators a victory by a FG.

Gambling angle: As usual, the trend is for underdogs to cover here, and I like Florida +2, and the over 44 as both teams will pull out all of the tricks.

Outback Bowl – Jan. 2, 1:00pm ABC

Georgia v. Michigan State

This year’s Outback Bowl matches two 10-3 teams who also lost their respective conference championship games. Michigan State hasn’t won a bowl game in 10 years, and Georgia’s 10-game winning streak was snapped by LSU in the SEC Championship. There is some history here, as Georgia beat Michigan State in the 2009 Capital One bowl. As with many bowl games, this matches Gerogia’s offense (3^rd in the SEC) versus Michigan State’s defense (5^th in the country). But, let’s not forget that Georgia is also a top-5 defense. Look for a close, exciting, but scoring game, in what could’ve been two BCS teams. I like Georgia, down to the wire, to win in a close one. 

Gambling angle: The Big-10 has covered six of the last nine Outback bowls, and three of the last five have played under. Let’s try and keep that going: Michigan State +3.5 and the under 50.5Even though I like Florida to win; I think Penn State covers the -6. And I look for the under 48 here also.

Capital One Bowl – Jan. 2, 1:00pm ESPN

South Carolina v. Nebraska

This match-up is simple. If South Carolina stops Burkhead and forces Martinez to pass, they win. And, they should have no problem doing that, as the 4^th best defense in the country (even while playing in the brutal SEC). Nebraska’s only chance is if the Blackshirts show up, but there’s no Suh or Crick this time. South Carolina wins big.

Gambling angle: While underdogs here are 4-2-1 against the spread in the last seven here, I have to take South Carolina -2. Four of the last six have played under, and that seems appropriate with these defenses, so I like the under 47.

Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO – Jan. 2, 5:00pm ESPN

Oregon v. Wisconsin

Two of the most prolific offenses in the country meet up in Pasadena. Wisconsin was outplayed by TCU last year here, and Oregon hasn’t won a Rose Bowl since 1917. Each team scores ~45+/game, and each has a deceptively steady defense that compliments their offense. LaMichael James led the country in rushing yards per game for the Ducks, and Monte Ball of Wisconsin has a chance to tie or break Barry Sanders’ single season TD record. Wisconsin couldn’t match TCU in the trenches last year, and they won’t be able to match Oregon’s speed this year. Oregon finally gets a BCS bowl win!

Gambling angle: Favorites tend to do well in Pasadena, and I like Oregon at -6 in a shootout. The over is a ridiculous 72, and as much as I want to take the over, I can’t. I’ll take the under as I remember what both Wisconsin and Oregon did last year in bowl games (each scored 19 in loses to TCU and Auburn).

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl – Glendale, AZ Jan. 2, 8:30pm ESPN

Oklahoma State v. Stanford

While the Rose Bowl features the 3^rd and 4^th scoring offenses in the country, the Fiesta Bowl features the 2^nd and 6^th scoring offenses, so look for lots of points. If you’ve followed ‘The Wind’ all year, you know how much I like these two teams this year. I’m really looking forward to watching this game. Stanford’s only blemishes the last two years have been against Oregon, and Oklahoma State silenced the critics by destroying the Sooners to end the season. As much as I’ve liked Stanford, I’m also a realist. They haven’t beaten anyone other than USC this year, and that was at home, and in triple O.T. Stanford and Andrew Luck run a very effective and efficient pro-style offense, but it’s not conducive to hanging with a spread style offense like Oklahoma State runs. And, like I’ve been saying all year: this year’s Oklahoma State team is special!  

Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered three of the last four Fiesta Bowls and four of the last seven have played under the total. While I do like Oklahoma State to win, Stanford will keep it close, so let’s look to Stanford +3.5; and much like the Rose Bowl, while there will be lots of points scored, I can’t see the over 74 hitting, so look to the under.

Allstate Sugar Bowl – Jan. 3, 8:30pm ESPN

Virginia Tech v. Michigan

A BCS Game with the #13 and #17 teams in the country? Okay then. As I’ve said before, we don’t know how good Va. Tech is because they haven’t played anyone (other than getting smashed by Clemson twice). And, while Michigan is much improved this year over last year (specifically on defense, going from 110^th last year to 18^th this year), their resume is about as non-impressive at Va. Tech’s (a win over Nebraska is about it). For once, I won’t be upset if I miss the Sugar Bowl.

Gambling angle: This game usually matches up an SEC team against someone, so no real trends to look at here. Va. Tech is -2, and I like that, with the over 51.

Discover Orange Bowl – Jan. 4, 8:30pm ESPN

Clemson v. West Virginia

If you thought the Sugar Bowl was bad, Clemson and West Virginia isn’t much better (#15 versus #23), though at least they both won their conferences. However, this should be a fairly entertaining game with solid offenses (each average ~35/game) and average defenses (each give up ~26/game).

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 6-2 against the spread and the under has hit seven out of nine, but I like the opposite here. Lots of offense and not much defense = Clemson -3.5 and over 60.5

AT&T Cotton Bowl – Jan. 6, 8:00pm FOX

Arkansas v. Kansas State

It’s fitting that the Cotton Bowl is played after the Orange and Sugar bowls this year, as it’s more of a BCS matchup than either of those games. #6 Arkansas comes in with its only loses to #1 and #2 Alabama, and surprise of the year #8 Kansas State reaches this game with their only loses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Either of these teams could’ve and should’ve made a BCS game. Will that affect their mental preparation at all? Doubtful. As usual, I’ve gotta take the SEC over the Big-12, and Arkansas gets their 11^th win.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 7-1 straight up over the Big-12 in this game. That will continue, and I like Arkansas -7.5; and while the under is 7-3 here, I gotta take the over 63 with these two offenses.

BBVA Compass Bowl – Jan. 7 1:00pm ESPN

Pittsburgh v. SMU

After 32 games we get Pittsburg v. SMU on January 7^th? SMU stumbles into this one losing four of its last six, and Pitt doesn’t have a coach (who is off to ASU – I’m still wondering if ASU realizes Pitt went 6-6 this year when they made a move to get him). Pitt wins again here, for the second straight year.

Gambling angle: In the bowl formerly known as the papajohns.com bowl, the Big East is 5-0. I’ll take Pitt -5 and the under 48.

GoDaddy.com Bowl – Jan. 8 9:00pm ESPN

Northern Illinois v. Arkansas State

So we’ve seen the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl, and Sugar Bowl – so it must be time for the National Championship, right? Nope. The bowl formally known as the GMAC bowl is played on January 8^th this year, and is one of three bowl games between the traditional big four and the championship. And, believe it or not, I’m actually okay with this. If we’re not going to have a playoff, but all means – let’s have games between Northern Illinois and Arkansas State. At least we get a match-up of conference champions in this one; albeit the MAC and the Sunbelt. And, while this may not be a BCS match-up, both teams are red hot, with NIU winning eight straight and Arkansas State winning nine in a row. NIU scores a ton, but they also give up more than 30/game. Arkansas State wins in a shootout, and quick – name the Arkansas State mascot. Thought so.

Gambling angle: Favorites are 8-0-1 against the spread in this game, so let’s look to Arkansas State -1.5 and the over 62.5

AllState BCS National Championship – Jan. 9, 8:30pm ESPN

LSU v. Alabama

Normally, I’m not a big fan of rematches in bowl games; and especially in National Championship games. But, let’s remember what happened November 5^th in Tuscaloosa. Alabama missed four field goals; neither defense made a mistake; neither coach took a chance on offense; and yet, Alabama battled the clear #1 team in the country to a 6-6 tie in regulation. Alabama’s defense gives up 190 yards/game and less than 9 points/game; far and away the best defense in the country. Rematches usually favor the loser of the first game, especially with two teams as evenly matched as this. Part of me wants LSU to win, as they’ve clearly been the most dominating team all year; but the same could be said about Alabama if they don’t miss four FGs at home. Like I said in the first match-up (even though I was wrong), you won’t be able to win this game by kicking FGs. I like Alabama to win 23-20.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 5-0 straight up and against the spread here, so of course that will move to 6-0 with two SEC teams playing! LSU is -1, and the O/U is 39.5. For selfish reasons which I may or may not explain later, I like Alabama +1 and the over 39.5 as both teams will open up their offenses a lot more compared to the November 5^th match-up. I wonder if the AP will still give LSU the AP Title with a loss? Hmmm, shall we start this debate already? Nah, save it for next year.  

Well, that’s it for 2011’s college football season! From all of the editors, statisticians, researchers, and other contributors at the Autumn Wind (oh wait – it’s just me): Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Until next time year….

Bowl Preview Edition - Part I

Here’s the 5^th annual edition of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview. I’ll break ‘em all down: 35 bowls, 70 teams, starting December 17^th and ending January 9^th, including some very intriguing match-ups in non-BCS bowls. This year will be known as the bowl season without any games on January 1^st! That’s right, because the 1^st falls on a Sunday this year, college football deferred its usual New Year’s Day games to the 2^nd.

Here’s the games, dates, times, TV coverage, and angles (for entertainment purposes only) up to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on December 31^st. I’ll post the update for the real bowl games next week. Enjoy the last few weeks of the 2011-2012 college football season!

Gildan New Mexico Bowl – Dec. 17, 2:00pm ESPN

Wyoming v. Temple

A match-up of 8-4 teams start off the 2011-2012 bowl season, but Temple has the advantage here. The Owls are 7^th in the nation in rushing, and 3^rd in the nation in scoring defense. Wyoming is no stranger to this bowl, having won a couple years ago as a 12.5 point underdog. But, the Cowboys rushing defense is 6^th worst in the nation. The Temple Owls win a bowl game!

Gambling angle: This is the 6^th New Mexico Bowl – and underdogs have not only covered, but won outright in three of the first five. In addition the over has hit in the last three. Despite the underdog’s strong play in this bowl, I think Temple covers the 6.5, and the over 48 should be no problem as Temple will score early and often, and Wyoming will wind up with some garbage points in the 4^th.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Dec. 17, 5:30pm ESPN

Utah State v. Ohio

This is the match-up of “someone must win” as these two teams are a combined 1-11 in bowl games. Both teams score a lot (31-35/game) but also give up a lot (22-28/game) so we’re looking at an entertaining offensive match-up in this one. Ohio falls to 0-6 all time in bowls, as the Aggies get the win, in a close one.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 3-2-1 against the spread the last six here, and three of the past four played to the over. Utah State opened at -2 and it’s up to -2.5. Let’s take Utah State -2.5 and the over 57.5.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Dec. 17, 9:00pm ESPN

Louisiana Lafayette v. San Diego State

In this match-up of 8-4 teams, you’ve got a San Diego State team whose only losses were to other bowl teams versus Louisiana Lafayette, a team that struggled on the road and it making their first ever bowl appearance. Not really much else to say about this one other that Louisiana Lafayette’s defense has been getting worse towards the end of the season, and both offenses score ~30+/game.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 4-2 in the past six and the past six have played over the total. The play here is San Diego State -5 with the over 58.5.

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl – Dec 20, 8pm ESPN

Marshall v. Florida International

Alright, now it’s bowl season: a 6-6 team from the MAC versus a 4^th place team from the Sun Belt Conference. If you don’t have anything better to do than watch this game, then go ahead and jump off of a cliff.

Gambling angle: This is the 4th Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, with the Big East victorious in the previous three (all as favorites). The problem is the Big East sucked this year and couldn’t send anyone for this bowl game. FIU is favored by four, and I like that, along with the over 48.5.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – Dec. 21, 8:00pm ESPN

TCU v. Louisiana Tech

TCU’s rattled off seven straight since their inexplicable loss to SMU, including winning @ Boise. And keep this in mind, except for a two point loss to Baylor to open the season and that O.T. loss to SMU (both very winnable games), TCU could be looking at 37-0 the last three regular season. The Horned Frogs aren’t the same as their previous teams, but they should have no problems against a Louisiana Tech team that won the WAC.

Gambling angle: The Mountain West has won the past five here. TCU opened at -12, but that’s crept down to -10.5. Gimme TCU -10.5 and the under 55.5 as TCU grinds out a big win.

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl – Dec. 22, 8:00pm ESPN

Boise State v. Arizona State

This is the worst match up of the bowl season. Boise was one FG away from playing in the National Championship, and ASU (the preseason favorite in the PAC-12 South) finished 6-6, losing four straight, and firing head coach Dennis Erickson. However, as we know, the games aren’t played on paper and often teams that wind up in disappointing bowl game won’t show up. But, that won’t be the case here. Remember, Boise got snubbed last year as well and went and put a whipping on Utah in this same bowl game. The only question is if ASU will show up at all; that, and put an already undisciplined team with a lame duck coach in Vegas and watch disaster unfold. Kellen Moore gets his 50^th win, a feat that may never be equaled.  

Gambling angle: Boise opened at -14, and I like that number; and with ten of the last 13 Vegas Bowl’s hitting the under, I like the under 66 as ASU will struggle to score against the underrated Broncos defense.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl – Dec. 24, 8:00pm ESPN

Southern Miss v. Nevada

As usual, tons of offense in the Hawaii Bowl, with both teams scoring over 32 a game, mostly through the ground attack. Southern Miss won 11 games, though Fedora is out as coach (moving on to North Carolina). Nevada’s pistol offense averages more than 500/game, and they’ll have no problem racing up and down the field.

Gambling angle: Underdogs have won, and covered, the past four here, and seven of the last nine have played over. Southern Miss is at -6. I love Nevada +6, with the over 63.

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – Dec. 26, 5:00pm ESPN2

North Carolina v. Missouri

Missouri won three straight to get here, and North Carolina finishd 2-4 down the stretch and will be on their 3^rd coach in two years next year. Nothing to see here folks…

Gambling angle: Favorites are 6-2 against the spread and the last three here played under. Missouri is -4.5 and like that number, as well as the under 52.5.

Little Caesars Bowl – Dec. 27, 4:30pm ESPN

Purdue v. Western Michigan

Purdue lost to Rice and only beat 1-11 Indiana by seven points in a must win to clinch a bowl berth finale. I don’t really care what Western Michigan has or has not done, they win this game.

Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered four straight and under total is 8-4 in last 12 Motor City…errrrr, Little Caesars Bowls. Purdue is -2.5, though I like Western Michigan to win outright, as Purdue just gives up too many points. Even though the under is the trend here, I do like the over 60.

Belk Bowl – Dec. 27, 8:00pm ESPN

North Carolina State v. Louisville

In what used to be the Meineke Car Care Bowl, Louisville can’t score and plays in the Big East. NC State upset Clemson and then came from a million back to beat Maryland in their final game. NC State wins, and wins big..

Gambling angle: Let’s take NC State -2.5 and the under 44.5.

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman – Dec. 28 4:30pm ESPN

Air Force v. Toledo

Grab the popcorn and get ready for some offense and not much defense. Toledo scores 42+/game, but gives up 31/game and Air Force scores 35/game but gives up 27/game.

Gambling angle: All three is this bowl’s history have played to the over; so I like the Toledo -3 and the over 70, as Air Force’s defense is too banged up to stop anyone.

Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl – Dec. 28, 8:00pm ESPN

Texas v. California

Both Texas and Cal had disappointing seasons. However, they each ended differently. Texas lost three out of their last four, and Cal won three out of their last four. Their sole loss in that stretch was by a FG at BCS-bound Stanford. But the wins were against Oregon State, Washington State, and ASU. Not exactly ’85 Bears material there. Texas’ losses were to Baylor, K State, and Missouri; all bowl teams.

Gambling angle: Interesting angle’s here: the PAC-10 doesn’t win (3-7 straight up), and favorites cover (10-3). Same story. I’ll take Texas -3 and the under 47.5.

Champs Sports Bowl – Dec. 29, 5:30pm ESPN

Notre Dame v. Florida State

The battle of “remember when were good?” schools. 1993 and the “Game of the Century” seem so long ago because, well, that was 18 years ago! Still, I’ll enjoy watching this game for old times sake, and the O/U on how many times Bowden and Holtz are named is 28.5.

Gambling angle: The ACC is only 1-7 straight up in this game, and the under is 5-1 the past six. I really like Notre Dame +3 and the under 47

Valero Alamo Bowl – Dec. 29, 9:00pm ESPN

Baylor v. Washington

The Big 12 has owned the PAC-12 in recent history in this game which bodes well for RGIII and Baylor. Rightfully so, Vegas has this game as the highest O/U this year. Baylor scores 43/game but gives up 36/game and Washington gives up more than it scores (33 and 31, respectively). Gonna be a ton of scoring in this one, and with it being played in RGIII’s backyard, I like Baylor.

Gambling angle: Even though five of eight played under, and underdogs are 6-4 against the spread; I’m going to buck both trends here and take Baylor -9 and the over 78.5.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl – Dec. 30, 12:00pm ESPN

Tulsa v. Brigham Young

BYU finished 9-3, but outside of Texas, didn’t play anyone. Tulsa didn’t really beat anyone, but their only losses were to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and Houston. Gonna be hard to watch the Armed Forces Bowl without an Armed Forces team playing.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 6-1 against the spread in this one, winning the last two outright. I like Tulsa +2.5. The over/under alternated the last 8 years; it’s this year’s turn for the over (which I like over 55.5).

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Dec. 30, 3:20pm ESPN

Iowa State v. Rutgers

Everyone knows Iowa State as the team that beat Oklahoma State. No one knows anything about Rutgers. Gotta go with Big-12 over Big East here, solely on principle.

Gambling angle: I’ll take Iowa State +1.5 and the over 44.5.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Dec. 30, 6:40pm ESPN

Wake Forest v. Mississippi State

I refuse to even acknowledge this game. Okay, the name of bowl is cool. That’s about it.

Gambling angle: I like Mississippi -7 (favorites are 5-1-1 the last seven Music City bowls) and since seven of ten have played under, I like the under 48.

Insight Bowl – Dec. 30, 10:00pm ESPN

Oklahoma v. Iowa

Iowa’s back at the Insight Bowl, and Oklahoma winds up here, even though they started the season at #1. Oklahoma has a lot to prove in this one, and again, I’ll pick the Big-12 over the Big 10 solely on principle

Gambling angle: The over is 8-1 in this last nine here, and the Big-12 had won four straight v. Big-10 before Iowa upset Missouri last year. Oklahoma wins, but not by the 14 they are favored by. I’ll take Iowa +14 and the over 58.

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas – Dec. 31, 12:00pm ESPN

Northwestern v. Texas A&M

The old Texas Bowl is now the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas. And once again, middle of the road Big-10 versus middle of the road Big-12 in this edition of the Texas Bowl. Which Northwestern team will show: the team that lost to Army or the team that beat Nebraska in Lincoln? Not that it will really matter. Sure, A&M is only 6-6, but they did beat Baylor, lost to Oklahoma State by one, Arkansas by four, Texas by two, and Missouri and Kansas State in O.T. Their only real bad loss was @ Oklahoma.

Gambling angle: I like Texas A&M -10, as favorites are 6-2-2 against the spread in this bowl; and I like the over 65 as well as three of the past four played over, and each defense is capable of giving up lots and lots of big plays.

Hyundai Sun Bowl – Dec. 31, 2:00pm CBS

Utah v. Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech’s rushing offense (3^rd in the nation) goes against Utah’s 20-point/game defense. This one will be an ugly game.

Gambling angle: I’ll take Georgia Tech -3.5 and the under 50.5.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl – Dec. 31 3:30pm ESPN

UCLA v. Illinois

If Kraft wasn’t trying to fight hunger with this bowl, I’d say why bother. Both teams are 6-6, Illinois has lost six straight, UCLA’s signature win was over San Jose State, and neither team has a coach.

Gambling angle: I guess I’ll take Illinois -2.5 and the over 47.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Dec 31, 3:30pm ABC

Vanderbilt v. Cincinnati

This is life in the SEC. The talk was how Vandy surprised everyone this year; enough so to give their coach an extension. Um, did anyone else notice they finished 2-6 in the SEC, including loses to Tennessee and Florida? And while Cincinnati won a share of the Big East title, keep in mind it’s the Big East; and they too lost to Tennessee, and their quality win was, what, Louisville? Ugh, the 3:30 time slot on New Years Eve is this game and the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl? I wonder if a Back to the Future marathon is on, cuz I won’t be watching either of these games.

Gambling angle: Vandy is a 2.5 point favorite, but I’m guessing that’s just an SEC v. Big East thing. The underdogs have covered six out of seven here, and the under has hit nine out of the last 12. So, if I had to put action on this game, I’d take Cincy +2.5 and the under 48.5

Chick-fil-A Bowl – Dec. 31, 7:30pm ESPN

Auburn v. Virginia

It’s still hard to believe that Virginia had a shot to go to the ACC Title game, then lost to Va. Tech at home 38-0. The defending BCS Champs Auburn surprised many folks with their early upsets over Mississippi State and South Carolina, but then they got destroyed later by Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, and Alabama. Tough one to pick here, but I’ll usually pick a middle of the road SEC team versus a second tier ACC team.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 4-2 straight up in the last six here, so I like Auburn -1.5; and the over 48.5 as both teams should be able to score.

Well that’s it for the pre-New Year’s Games!

Until next time…