Week 11 Recap and Week 12 Preview

I was scratching my head all year trying to figure out how the SEC wouldn’t have a team in the Championship Game, as I long assumed that the winner of the SEC Championship Game would for sure be in the Top-2. That’s not the case anymore. The winner of a likely Georgia/’Bama rematch isn’t going to automatically vault into #2 without help. That help is looking to be in the form of USC beating Notre Dame (likely); Oregon losing to Stanford, Oregon State, or the likely rematch with USC (not likely), or Kansas State losing at home to Texas (unpossible). It’s safe to say that K. State is playing for the championship. Of course, it’s never safe to say anything with football still left to be played!

Here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 11 Top-10 recap:

1. Despite being 4-5 and having a disappointing season, Virginia Tech still showed why it’s so difficult to go into Blacksburg on a Thursday night and come away with a win. Florida State was held to -15 yards rushing, but did get seven on a fourth and one play on the last minute game winning drive. Huge win for the Seminoles.

2. TCU had won 27 straight when holding teams to 28 or under. Streak snapped via Collin Klein and that underrated K. State defense. The stars are aligning in favor of K. State. I think Herbstreit said it best: “Can you imagine a 12-0 Notre Dame team not being in the Top-2?” That’s likely to happen without an Oregon or K State loss. And of course that assumes a Notre Dame win @ USC which I’m already mentally prepared for that not to happen.

3. Notre Dame’s defense continues to shine, holding yet another team without a TD, and is now the number one scoring defense in the country. I just hope their offense clicks against USC, or the Irish faithful will be haunted by that one loss for years to come.

4. Did Florida really need 14 points in the last two minutes at the Swamp to beat Louisiana-Lafayette, a middle of the pack Sun Belt team? Good luck @ Florida State in a couple weeks.

5. Georgia, LSU, and South Carolina continue to roll, and it’s fascinating that with five teams in the Top-10, the SEC may not be represented in the BCS Championship Game. I think you can clearly see why the SEC was one of the biggest proponents of a playoff system. No offense to my beloved Irish, but do you really think Notre Dame has a chance in a playoff against the likes of Alabama, LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, or Texas A&M?

6. Case in point about a team being undefeated not meaning much: Louisville. Now Rutgers controls its own destiny in the “I can’t believe we still get an automatic bid” conference that used to be known as the Big East.

7. In this week’s “Don’t forget about us,” Clemson is nearly back in the Top-10, and have reeled off six straight wins following the loss to Florida State. Their transformation can be complete with the upset of South Carolina in a couple weeks.

8. Someone needs to tell Northwestern that games are 48 minutes long and not 42 minutes. All three of their losses have come after being ahead with six minutes left.

9. All the talk was the Cal had somehow figured out Oregon and that they were the blueprint to slow down the Ducks. And that was fine and dandy mid-way through the third when Oregon was only up 24-17. But then the Ducks pulled a Marty McFly, dropped it into fourth and said “Let’s see if you bastards can do 90” and racked up five unanswered TDs. I don’t think anyone can slow down the Ducks for four quarters. This isn’t the same Ducks team, or mentality, that Auburn was able to wrangle a couple years ago. You remember Auburn used to be good, right? And not the soon-to-be 0-8 SEC team we see now?

10. They spotted A&M three first quarter TDs, they couldn’t tackle Johnny, they turned it over three times, they had no business winning that game, yet there Alabama was with a 4^th and goal to win it. Sure, Alabama lost, sure A&M played near flawless football, but don’t forget how good of team this Alabama team is. And they’re only gonna get better: another top-5 recruiting class and they only use nine scholarship seniors. Oh, and all the talk about A&M and Johnny football? Total yards: A&M 418 Alabama 431.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Oregon (10-0) – Quack, quack. We’re #1!!! (I think the Autumn Wind poll should be included in the BCS calculation as there’s no reason for Kansas State to be ranked higher than Oregon).

#2 Kansas State (10-0) – Solid lead at #2.

#3 Notre Dame (10-0) – Please find a way to beat that loser Lame Kiffen and those hated USC Trojans. Please. Please. Please!!! Oh yeah, don’t forget about Wake Forest either.

#4 Alabama (9-1) – One time it doesn’t hurt to lose late is when everyone else in your conference has already lost.

#5 Georgia (9-1) – 35-7 against South Carolina, really?

#6 Florida (9-1) – 14-7 win against Missouri, and needing two TDs late to beat LA-Lafayette, really?

#7 Florida State (9-1) – 17-16 against North Carolina State, really?

#8 LSU (8-2) – Six points against Florida, and giving up a game winning drive @ home @ night, really?

#9 South Carolina (8-2) – A 17-13 win against Vandy and only 11 points against Florida, really?

#10 Oklahoma (7-2) – Two chances for signature wins at home and two losses, really? I think I’ve talked myself into the four teams that should be in a playoff this year!

Rising Fast:

Texas A&M – Who would’ve thought that Texas A&M is the likely reason that the SEC National Championship streak is likely coming to an end?

Falling Faster:

Oregon State – If you go on the road and win the turnover battle 4:1, you’re supposed to win. Or at least not lose the “points off turnovers” battle 7:3.

Heisman Watch:

Collin Klein, Kansas State – Johnny Football is the talk of the town, but don’t forget his poor second halves against Florida and LSU. Klein has been solid all year. And I personally like the name Optimus Klein a lot more than Johnny Football.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Oregon v. Kansas State – Alabama was exposed by both LSU and A&M. Neither of these teams has yet to be exposed. I’d be happy if this is the final match-up, but there’s still a lot of football to play.

Week 12 Big Games:

USC @ UCLA – USC needs a win against cross town rival UCLA to head to the PAC-12 Championship game with an outside shot still at the Rose Bowl. How UCLA is ranked higher than USC is truly a reflection of W/L and nothing to do with how good either team is or is not. Remember last year? USC 50 UCLA 0. USC isn’t peeking ahead to the Notre Dame match-up next week – that usually doesn’t happen with a rivalry game. USC 45 UCLA 13

Week 12 Game of the Week:

Stanford @ Oregon – All eyes will be on Eugene as the rest of the BCS Top-10 basically take the week off (Kansas State @ Baylor, Wake Forest @ Notre Dame, Western Carolina @ Alabama, Georgia Southern @ Georgia, Jacksonville State @ Florida, Ole Miss @ LSU, Sam Houston State @ Texas A&M, Wofford @ South Carolina, and Florida State @ Maryland). Stanford is a tough gritty team, but they just can’t score enough (63^rd in the nation at just over 29/game). And they gave up 54 to a UofSuck team that was shut out 49-0 earlier in Eugene. The last two years in this series will look eerily similar to this result. 2010: Oregon 52 Stanford 31; 2011: Oregon 53 Stanford 30; 2012: Oregon 58 Stanford 31.

Until next time…

Week 10 Recap and Week 11 Preview

There’s a little election going on today, if you haven’t heard, so let’s make this quick.

Here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 10 Top-10 recap:

1. Notre Dame had no business winning that game: turnovers, missed extra points, missed FGs, needing Pitt to miss a FG in the 2^nd OT, a couple graceful calls from the refs, etc.; but they did. And they’re 9-0 for the first time since 1993. And that year they lost to Boston College. And of course their opponent this week is Boston College. Thankfully it’s on the road as they seem to play a lot better away from home this year.

2. Matt Barkley’s numbers were huge: 35-54 for 484 yards and 5 TDs. The problem? Oregon was 9/13. That’s nine TDs on their 13 possessions. It’s hard to win when you give up 62.

3. Kansas State beats yet another ranked team, but they only managed six points after the Klein injury.

4. Florida’s done with SEC play at 7-1, but will need Auburn to beat Georgia to claim the SEC East. Not gonna happen. But, they may have a better shot at an at large BCS bid this way. If Florida beats Florida State, and Georgia loses to Alabama in the SEC Championship game, Florida is likely in the Sugar Bowl.

5. Johnny Football keeps A&M rolling and now they get a shot at Alabama. This is the difference between the SEC and the Big 12. You don’t ever get a chance to catch your breath. Unless you’re playing Auburn, Tennessee or Missouri, that is. A&M needs a win and a ‘Bama loss to Auburn (not gonna happen) to win the West.

6. Michigan State’s four conference losses are by a combined 10 points. That’s what happens when you have the 109^th scoring offense in the country. They need a win over Northwestern or Minnesota to even become bowl eligible.

7. Who has been more disappointing this year? Arkansas, West Virginia, Michigan, or Virginia Tech? All were in the preseason Top 16, and all flopped. Bad.

8. Why was 5-3 UofSuck ranked? Well, they’re 5-4 now after getting slapped around by UCLA, and I’m not so sure that Colorado doesn’t beat them this weekend. Okay, maybe not.

9. And, Oregon just scored again.

10. It didn’t matter that Alabama’s offense did nothing in the second half before The Drive. It didn’t matter that LSU moved the ball up and down the field on the nation’s #1 defense. It didn’t matter that the Mad Hatter tried a couple trick plays at really bad times. All that mattered was ‘Bama gave up less than 20, again; and McCarron engineered the Crimson Tide’s version of The Drive.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Alabama (9-0) – Survived your toughest test. On the road. At night. Death Valley. That’s why I’ve had you #1 since day 1.

#2 Oregon (9-0) – I know it works for the system, but the defense has to slow some folks down.

#3 Kansas State (9-0) – No Klein? We won’t know.

#4 Notre Dame (9-0) – Boston College is 2-0 against Top-5 Notre Dame teams. 1993 and 2002. Gulp.

#5 Georgia (8-1) – Pretty much have the SEC East wrapped up. Would winning the SEC jump you to #2? Doubtful.

#6 Florida (8-1) – Congrats on a great season, now just beat Florida State!

#7 Florida State (8-1) – Don’t forget about us!

#8 LSU (8-2) – Why is LSU always in the Top-10 with two losses? I guess they’re that good.

#9 South Carolina (7-2) – So close, yet so far away.

#10 Oregon State (7-1) – Big test on the road at the Farm this weekend.

Rising Fast:

Texas A&M – 2^nd place in the vaunted SEC West; and their two losses to Florida and LSU were by a combined eight points. ‘Bama better look out.

Falling Faster:

West Virginia – What happened? You give up a game tying 94-yard TD pass with less than two minutes left and lose in double OT to TCU? Just three weeks ago, you were in the Top 5 with the leading Heisman trophy candidate, and now you’re not even guaranteed to go to a bowl game.

Heisman Watch:

Collin Klein, Kansas State – But, how bad is the injury?

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Alabama v. Oregon – We’ll see how Alabama plays against a spread offense this weekend against A&M. I still think Oregon is in if they win out.

Week 11 Big Games:

Mississippi State @ LSU – LSU is coming off the sting of doing everything to beat Alabama except scoring enough points, so they’re ripe for the taking. But, Mississippi State hasn’t beaten LSU in 12 tries and hasn’t won @ LSU in 20+ years. Mississippi State was a good story this year, until they actually started playing quality teams. LSU 41 Mississippi 23

Kansas State @ TCU – K State has a challenge here. No one really knows if Collin Klein is going to play, and even if he does, how effective will he be? It’s pretty simple for TCU. Hold them to under 28 – the Horned Frogs have won 27 straight when holding their opponents to 28 or less. Of course, K State has only scored less than 28 twice, the wins @ Iowa State and @ Oklahoma. And in their three game streak against Top-25 teams they’ve scored 55, 55, and 44. TCU won’t be able to score enough, and K State’s magical season continues. Kansas State 48 TCU 30

Oregon State @ Stanford – The battle of the “we’re ranked this high but couldn’t beat Washington?” teams. Stanford’s win over USC is looking less and less impressive, and Oregon State’s win over Wisconsin is similar. When they do win, it’s not impressive, but they’re losses to Washington and Notre Dame were all close games to. Look for this to come down to turnover margin and FG kicking. Gotta favor the home team in that situation: Stanford 20 Oregon State 17

Week 11 Game of the Week:

Texas A&M @ Alabama – After an emotional win against their rival on the road, how will Alabama respond when Johnny Football and A&M come to Tuscaloosa? They bring the country’s 4^th best scoring offense, and will go up against ‘Bama’s 1^st ranked scoring defense. There’s some history here too, with Saban criticizing A&M’s no huddle offense earlier in the year by questioning if this is how “we want football to be played.” Don’t think that A&M won’t run up the score if given the chance. But, ‘Bama also wants to properly welcome A&M into the SEC. ‘Bama’s a team of destiny, I say. Alabama 31 Texas A&M 27

Until next time…

Week 9 Recap and Week 10 Preview

Down to four unbeatens (sorry Louisville and Ohio State, you don’t count), and all four have a legitimate claim to the top-2 spots. Alabama’s claim is week-in-and-week out blowouts in the best conference in football and a high preseason ranking. Oregon’s is a little more difficult, but comes down to this: yeah, we haven’t played anyone yet – but look at the tail end of our schedule; don’t we deserve #2 if we run that table? Kansas State’s is more straightforward: road wins over Oklahoma and West Virginia. And Notre Dame has a say as well: the only team to beat four Top-25 teams so far (including two top-10 teams on the road), and before I get hate mail from the K St fans, let’s look at common opponents: Kansas State v. Miami 52-13, Kansas State @ Oklahoma 24-19; Notre Dame against Miami on a neutral field 41-3 and Notre Dame @ Oklahoma 30-13. Of course, many folks are saying that this justifies the four team playoff, but I’ll tell you this: there’s still a lot of football to play, and I’ll be shocked if these four are undefeated by the time middle December rolls around.

Here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 9 Top-10 recap:

1. If Alabama’s idea of a look-ahead game against an undefeated Mississippi State team is a 38-7 rout, I’m fearful for what they’ll do to Les and company this weekend. Yes, even at Death Valley. A #1 defense, a #1 rated QB, and rated #1 in offensive TD efficiency obviously equal the #1 team in the country.

2. I wish Oregon would quit putting on the breaks. They probably could’ve cracked 100 at least two or three times this season, but instead pull back on the reigns and drop in the standings as a result. Not cool.

3. Kansas State is firing on all cylinders and appears to have the easiest road to 12-0. That would all but secure the Heisman for Klein as well.

4. Can someone explain Washington to me? They’ve beaten two top-10 (at the time) teams in Oregon State and Stanford, and kept it close against USC. Oh, those were all at home – and they only have one home game left: sorry Utah.

5. I watched the USC/UofSuck game with great interest. It turned out to be entirely possibly to hope to find a way that both teams lose. Good pick by Herbstreit to take the Wildcats in the upset, and now the Oregon/USC game this weekend will be on TV #2 behind the Alabama/LSU game.

6. Tennessee is 0-5 in the SEC for the third straight season, but the bigger story out of that game was yet another injury to Marcus Lattimore from South Carolina. South Carolina is probably the best two loss team in the country, but they just won’t be the same without their star RB.

7. In Lincoln, the Blackshirts showed up, and Nebraska took care of Michigan and now have the inside track to the Big 10 title game. Assuming they can win @ Michigan State this weekend. Gulp.

8. Remember that team from Idaho that used to bust the BCS? Boise is quietly 7-1, and should be 8-0 if they actually figure out a way to make a play or two in the opener at Boise State.

9. Time to dust off the time breaker rules in the SEC again. South Carolina beat Georgia who beat Florida who beat South Carolina. Toss in some more potential chaos should LSU beat Alabama this weekend. Hmmmm, maybe there are a couple scenarios where the SEC Champion doesn’t play for the championship. Thankfully, an all-SEC title appears dead in the water with Georgia’s victory over Florida.

10. While Notre Dame’s defense has been fun to watch this year, their offense has been downright offensive at times; but has shown a glimmer in the last couple weeks with a much improved running game. Huge win @ Oklahoma on Saturday night, and once again, Notre Dame’s defense is where opposing offenses go to die. Case in point, check out what their opponents scored the week before they played Notre Dame compared to how they fared against the Irish (in parentheses): Purdue 48 (17), Michigan State 41 (3), Michigan 63 (6), Miami 44 (3), Stanford 54 (13), BYU 24 (14), Oklahoma 52 (13). Manti stays in the Heisman race, for now.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Alabama (8-0) – Saban is only 3-3 against LSU since he’s been with Alabama.

#2 Oregon (8-0) – Sticking with the Ducks at #2. Don’t let me down!!

#3 Kansas State (8-0) – Will there ever be a letdown?

#4 Notre Dame (8-0) – I can’t decide if I want a loss before the USC game. Not sure I can take the stress of an 11-0 Irish team against a likely three loss USC team at the Coliseum.

#5 Georgia (7-1) – You beat Florida so you have to be ahead of them, right?

#6 LSU (7-1) – I should have you below Florida since you lost to them, but, better to lose early…

#7 Florida (7-1) – …than late.

#8 Florida State (8-1) – Remember us?

#9 South Carolina (7-2) – Much like Arkansas last year, we may not know how good you were based on two loses to incredible teams.

#10 Oregon State (6-1) – Once again, I have you at #10 because I can’t really put anyone else here.

Rising Fast:

Notre Dame – Not only are they 8-0 for the first time in 10 years, but they’ve won eight games in three straight years for the first time since 1991-1993. Just don’t blow any of your next three against Pitt, Boston College, and Wake Forest, please.

Falling Faster:

Oklahoma – Remember when they called him Big Game Bob? Stoops can’t seem to win ‘em anymore. Well, blowouts against Texas don’t count.

Heisman Watch:

Collin Klein, Kansas State – Manti is a better story, but Collin is a better candidate.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Alabama v. Oregon – Still sticking with it. I want to see the #1 scoring defense versus the #1 scoring offense.

Week 10 Big Games:

Oklahoma State @ Kansas State – You keep waiting for Kansas State to have a letdown, and they just don’t. I keep saying that Saban is the best gameday prep coach in the country, but I may have to revise that: Synder is right up there. What about this week? Oklahoma State comes in with the #1 offense in the country (yards/game, at least), but K St has shown they can move the ball up and down the field as well. Look for this one to be a little bit closer than the W. Virginia or Texas Tech games, but K State rolls again: 48 to 43.

Oregon @ USC – I’ve had this one circled since USC went to Eugene and pulled off the upset last year. Sadly, the Trojans and their #1 AP preseason ranking have been disappointing this year: and I gladly place the blame solely on Lame Kiffen. I love Oregon in this one: 58 to 38

Nebraska @ Michigan State – Michigan State isn’t ranked anymore, but Nebraska needs this one to get a shot at the Big 10 Championship game. Nebraska struggles on the road, but Michigan State can’t score. Outside of Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Indiana, the Spartans biggest point total is 17 (in the opener against Boise). Surely Nebraska can score that much? Let’s take Nebraska 20 to 13.

Week 10 Game of the Week:

Alabama @ LSU – I’ve had this one circled since last year as well. Alabama dominated LSU twice last year (except for some crappy FG kicking in the regular season matchup), and while Death Valley at night is usually very good to LSU, Norman is usually very good to Oklahoma against ranked teams. How’d that work out for them? Alabama is as balanced of a college team I’ve ever seen, not flashy, certainly not the best defense Saban has had, but they don’t turn it over, they score early and often, and then they pin the ears back and get after the QB. LSU has no offense, and Alabama won’t need many FG attempts, which is what screwed them up last year. Alabama 31 LSU 13.

Until next time…

Week 8 Recap and Week 9 Preview

For the first time in a long time, my Top-9 is unchanged. South Carolina (#10 in my poll last week) was bounced after the loss in the Swamp. In the actual BCS standings, Oregon keeps dropping by winning, and winning big, which makes absolutely no sense. If you’re going to rank teams at the start of the season, they shouldn’t drop at all by starting 7-0. Just another reason why I hate the BCS. But, I still say Oregon gets in if they win out – especially with Oregon playing D2 Colorado this weekend while Alabama has undefeated Mississippi State, Florida has Georgia, Kansas State has Texas Tech, and Notre Dame has Oklahoma. There’s gonna be a big shakeup in the polls come Sunday.

Here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 8 Top-10 recap:

1. The Thursday night game was one of the weirder games I’ve seen (well, then again, a couple fit that bill this weekend). Oregon turns it over on their first possession and Arizona State scores on their first play. Then Oregon scores 43 straight in the next 19 minutes and doesn’t score again. ASU tacks on two TDs late, and had a chance at a 3^rd that would’ve made it 43-28. But, Oregon wins in a 43-21 blowout that wasn’t nearly that close, and their reward is another drop in the BCS.

2. Texas A&M and South Carolina both had chances to get back into the SEC race against LSU and Florida, but both suffered too many turnovers, and too many turnovers on the wrong side of the field. Get this: Florida scored 44 points on less than 200 yards of total offense. That’s a point for every four yards of offense. It’s hard to overcome turnovers against quality opponents.

3. If it wasn’t for an overtime win against Louisiana-Monroe, Auburn would be 0-7. Either way, they’re 0-5 in the SEC, and need a win against ranked A&M, Georgia, and Alabama teams to avoid a winless SEC. That sound you hear is Chizik getting run out of town on a pine rail.

4. The Irish finally allowed a TD, well two actually, but still managed to escape with yet another win. Allowing a TD for the first time since the Purdue game is probably the best thing that could happen to that defense. Because, Oklahoma is going to score several TDs this weekend, and it’s going to be very important for the defense to regroup, if they are going to have a chance in Norman.

5. In the West Virginia game, the Heisman hopeful QB threw for 323 yards (on 19/21 passes) and three TDs, also adding four TDs on the ground. And no, I’m not talking about Geno Smith, I’m talking about the new Heisman front runner: Collin Klein. K State keeps rolling, but they have to take care of business this weekend against pesky Texas Tech. Geno, I can probably hook you up with Fiesta Bowl tickets if K State gets there. And, I mean uncle Geno, not Geno Smith.

6. How about Matt Barkley’s line: 19/20 for 298 yards and six TDs. Sure it was against Colorado, but he did break fellow USC QB Matt Leinart’s record of 99 career TD passes in the PAC-12 (Barkley’s now sitting on 102). Let’s see if he can break Leinart’s record for number of underage chicks doing beer bongs in the pool in Scottsdale. Or was it Ahwatukee?

7. Georgia fell behind three times to SEC winless Kentucky (even after a bye week), but managed to escape with a victory to set up a huge SEC East game this weekend against Florida at the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.

8. Ohio State keeps winning, and nobody keeps caring. Just the way it should be.

9. Sure, it was a triple overtime game, but Seth Doege from Texas Tech did throw seven TDs (3^rd time he’s had at least six this year) and Texas Tech needs to be brought into the discussion in the BCS. And Doege needs to be brought into the Heisman discussion, so let’s do that next.

10. Geno’s out of the Heisman picture, Barkley’s back in it, Te’o keeps sticking around as long as the Irish keep winning, but no one has been as impressive and consistent as Collin Klein. Barring a major choke job, it’s his. Unless Doege (who leads the nation in TDs by the way) goes ballistic this weekend in Manhattan that is.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Alabama (7-0) – Is it just me or do they always win 40-something to 10-something?

#2 Oregon (7-0) – Don’t worry, I got your back.

#3 Florida (7-0) – I keep picking against ‘em and keep losing.

#4 Kansas State (7-0) – Maybe those video gamers who had you winning it all were right?

#5 Notre Dame (7-0) – I don’t even want to think about what will happen if you somehow find a way to beat Oklahoma.

#6 LSU (7-1) – November 3^rd awaiteth.

#7 Oklahoma (5-1) – A win over Notre Dame and your back in the picture.

#8 USC (6-1) – That loss to Stanford seems so long ago.

#9 Oregon State (6-0) – Best start in over 100 years.

#10 Georgia (6-1) – You do realize Kentucky sucks?

Rising Fast:

Texas Tech – The best team in Texas?

Falling Faster:

Auburn – Ouch. Looking like a winless season in the SEC just two years removed from winning it all.

Heisman Watch:

Collin Klein, Kansas State – Unless Barkley keeps rolling, or Te’o has five INTs against Oklahoma, I think this one’s pretty much wrapped up.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Alabama v. Oregon – Nine weeks in and I still haven’t had to change my title game prediction? I’ve usually changed it three or four times by now.

Week 9 Big Games:

Mississippi State @ Alabama – Unbeaten Mississippi State comes to town; and they’re a 24 point underdog, the week before Alabama has to travel to LSU? Yikes. If this wasn’t at home, and if Saban wasn’t the best game day prep coach in the country, this would scream “trap!!!” But, then again, if the Queen had balls, she’d be King. Alabama 45 Mississippi State 20

Florida v. Georgia – SEC East is on the line. I’ve picked against Florida so many times this year, I almost have to stick with that. But, if the last six years has shown us anything, defense wins championships, and Florida’s is right up there with Alabama’s. Plus, Georgia was down three times to Kentucky over the weekend. Gators keep things interesting in the BCS race: 27 to 20

Texas Tech @ Kansas State – Tech had one of the roughest schedules this side of South Carolina or South Bend: @ Iowa State, v. Oklahoma, v. West Virginia, @ TCU, and now @ Kansas State. They managed to win three out of those four, but they did get blown out by Oklahoma, a team that Kansas State handled convincingly. Following a three O.T. emotional thriller @ TCU, and now having to travel to Manhattan won’t be good for the Red Raiders. They’ll start out flat, and need to come from behind, but K State’s defense is too tough. Kansas State 38 Texas Tech 31

Michigan @ Nebraska – Michigan’s first trip to Lincoln in 100 years, and it pits the high powered offense of Nebraska (first in the Big 10 in scoring) against the tough Michigan defense (10^th in the country). Nebraska was humiliated in the Big House last year, and the inconsistent play from Michigan’s QB Denard Robinson will decide how this one shakes out. I think the Blackshirt’s get a few big turnovers and eek out enough points to get it done: 24 to 20.

Week 9 Game of the Week:

Notre Dame @ Oklahoma – Everyone’s talking about if Notre Dame’s defense can hold up against Oklahoma’s high powered offense. What no one is talking about is if Notre Dame’s offense can do anything at all against Oklahoma’s underrated defense. Notre Dame has proven they can shut teams down and come from behind by a score to win. But can their offense generate enough points to come from behind if that quick strike Oklahoma offense gets two or three quick scores? I don’t think so. Oklahoma 31 Notre Dame 17

Until next time…

Week 7 Recap and Week 8 Preview

Seven weeks in and the first BCS rankings are out with six SEC teams in the Top-12. I wonder if any of those experts who said the SEC wouldn’t win the Championship this year, let alone may not even have a team in the Top-2 want to change their mind? As I said in the preview, I don’t see a way the winner of the SEC Championship game doesn’t get into the Top 2. So who gets the other spot? Assuming Oregon runs the table; they will. But, if there’s not an undefeated team left, it will get ugly. We know Florida State is out no matter what, as is West Virginia, in my opinion. USC, Oklahoma, LSU, and South Carolina can all creep back into it; but they have to take care of business first – easier for USC than for Oklahoma and the SEC teams. And, I’ll say it now – we could wind up with SEC v. SEC again (assuming Oregon, Notre Dame, and Kansas State all lose somewhere along the way – which is very likely). Look at the schedule – let’s assume Alabama takes care of business the next four weeks (@ Tennessee, v. Miss St, @ LSU, v. A&M) and then they coast into the last two games of the regular season (v. Western Carolina and v. Auburn) and finish 12-0. Let’s say they lose the SEC Championship to an undefeated or one loss Florida, South Carolina, or Georgia. Does a 12-1 Alabama finish below #2 to a one loss Oregon, Notre Dame, or Kansas State? Probably not. Uh oh.

Here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 7 Top-10 recap:

1. Let’s get this out of the way early: yes, Taylor was down; or at least that’s what was called on the field and in the booth. Forward momentum was stopped; and when he did change directions and roll over, his left elbow was down before he stretched the ball across the goal line. Notre Dame’s defense still hasn’t given up a rushing TD all year, and their offense is giving up more overall TD’s than Manti Te’o and company. It’s fun to watch. Their offense on the other hand? Not so much. Notre Dame should beat BYU this weekend, but unless Rees can wake up the offense (they can’t keep running Golson out there, especially with that concussion), the game @ Oklahoma in two weeks is going to be ugly.

2. Which conference other than the SEC is the only conference with three remaining undefeated teams? The Big East. I didn’t see that coming; then again, between Rutgers, Louisville, and Cincinnati, their quality win is over four loss Arkansas.

3. And so it begins – the annual SEC “let’s beat up on ourselves and see who’s left standing.” First, LSU loses in the Swamp to Florida; then South Carolina falls to LSU in Death Valley, and I think there’s a good chance that South Carolina takes out Florida and Texas A&M takes out LSU this weekend. Alabama’s schedule is looking better and better…

4. Do you think West Virginia got caught peeking ahead to Kansas State? A classic trap game gobbles up another victim! But, Geno still has a lock on the Heisman, as the only other person to gain ground in the race is Manti T’eo, but I don’t see how a LB wins the Heisman.

5. Someone, please someone, beat Ohio State. Michigan, I’m looking at you! I can’t stand to see cheaters undefeated.

6. Kansas State is climbing up the polls fast. They’ve played two good teams, both on the road (Oklahoma and Iowa State), and won them both; and they go to Morgantown this weekend. That’s what championship caliber teams do: win tough, close games on the road. Are you listening Spurrier?

7. I forgot that the Red River shootout was an early game (9:00am on the Left Coast). By the time I tuned in, it was 36-2, Oklahoma. Way to show up to a rivalry game, Texas.

8. The concern with Oregon State was that, yeah, they’ve a solid defense, but their offense can’t score enough. And, they were going on the road with a back-up QB to play a BYU team that was giving up less than 9/game and hadn’t given up more than 300 yards in twelve straight. 450 yards and 35 points later, and the Beavers are showing they deserve that Top-10 ranking and a favorable remaining schedule with both Arizona State and Oregon at home.

9. It’s clear the only thing that can slow down Alabama is an act of God. Literally. Lightning delayed the game at Missouri, and gave the Tigers a chance to dust themselves off after Alabama raced off to a 28-0 lead. Welcome to the SEC, Missouri. Battle of the Bottom of the SEC West this weekend: 0-4 Missouri v. 0-4 Kentucky.

10. Texas A&M and Louisiana Tech combined for 116 points and about 1300 yards. The 57 given up by the Wrecking Crew were two scores more than they gave up in their first four games combined. And, those 57 points came in the final 29 minutes as they were pitching a shutout for the first quarter and a half. Will A&M’s defense be able to regroup when LSU comes to town this weekend? Because I can tell you this – LSU’s defense is just a teeny bit better than Louisiana Tech’s.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Alabama (6-0) – The computer’s don’t like you, but I do.

#2 Oregon (7-0) – Just win out, and it doesn’t matter.

#3 Florida (6-0) – Ye Ole’ Ball Coach coming back to town this weekend!

#4 Kansas State (6-0) – Throwback team. Love it.

#5 Notre Dame (6-0) – I wonder why Kelly hates Rees so much? All he does is come in for Golson and win games.

#6 LSU (6-1) – Watch out for your trip to College Station!!!!

#7 Oklahoma (4-1) – Brutal 2^nd half schedule: Notre Dame, @ Iowa State, @ West Virginia, @ TCU.

#8 USC (5-1) – Bet you’re glad to have both Oregon and Notre Dame @ the Coliseum.

#9 Oregon State (5-0) – Check out the schedule…the Nicholls State game was rescheduled to December 1, and the PAC-12 Championship is November 30. You may want to reschedule that again. Just sayin’.

#10 South Carolina (6-1) – Gotta chance to get back into things @ the Swamp.

Rising Fast:

Florida – The win @ A&M is looking more and more impressive.

Falling Faster:

Tennessee – 0-3 in the SEC, and make it 0-4 after Alabama visits.

Heisman Watch:

Geno Smith, West Virginia – Nine of the last 10 Heisman winners have been QBs. Geno stepped down a notch this weekend, but he still hasn’t thrown an inception – and no one (other than Te’o) really stepped up. It’s still Geno’s trophy, for now.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Alabama v. Oregon – Eight weeks in and I haven’t had to change my title game prediction? I’ve usually changed it three or four times by now.

Week 8 Big Games:

Oregon @ Arizona State – It’ll be about 95 degrees in the desert on Thursday night; not that the Ducks have had any problems with that – winning four straight in Tempe, and seven straight overall against the Devils, winning by an average of three TDs. I was smelling an upset here for awhile, but I don’t see that happening anymore. But, ASU will make a game of this and won’t get blown out like they have the last seven. Oregon 47 Arizona State 38

Kansas State @ West Virginia – We know West Virginia can score (7^th in the nation), but they were living dangerously with that defense (112^th in the nation). Kansas State is the exact type of team that gives the Mountaineers trouble: physical, aggressive, and with a power running game. Kansas State in the driver’s seat in the Big12 after this one: K State 30 West Virginia 27

Alabama @ Tennessee – 3^rd weekend in October….blah, blah, blah. Just putting this in for Greg so I don’t get hate mail for a month about not having this as a big game. Alabama 31 Tennessee 10

LSU @ Texas A&M – For LSU, sandwiched in between the South Carolina game and the Alabama game is this roaddie to A&M. They haven’t seen an offense like this yet this year, and they haven’t played in the wildness that is College Station. I’m calling the upset. A&M 27 LSU 20

Texas Tech @ TCU – Texas Tech is the better team, but they’re on the road following an emotional win against West Virginia. Tech has lost four straight following victories against ranked foes, and that won’t change here. TCU is TCU – gritty defense, disciplined, and back to classic Gary Patterson football. TCU 31 Texas Tech 27

Week 6 Game of the Week:

South Carolina @ Florida – This is about as even of a match-up as you can see – both teams rely heavily on the ground game and stingy defenses. But the intangible is with Spurrier coming back to the Swamp to take on his old team. Look for South Carolina to open up the offense a little bit, and look for South Carolina’s Lattimore to outrush Florida’s Gillislee. Regardless, points will be at a premium in this game – kicking FGs ain’t gonna cut it. Another upset in the SEC: South Carolina 20 Florida 13.

Until next time…

Week 6 Recap and Week 7 Preview

Florida State, LSU, Georgia, and Texas all went down this weekend; which makes teams like Oklahoma and USC very happy. Better to lose early than late. Alabama and Oregon’s grip on #1 and #2 is very solid right now, and I can’t have West Virginia at #3 with how bad their defense is. So, South Carolina it is at #3, even though they have to go to LSU this weekend and host Florida the following week. Looking ahead to this weekend; there’s a bunch of trap games to look out for – Kansas State @ Iowa State (looking ahead to WVU), West Virginia @ Texas Tech (emotional win @ Texas, looking ahead to K State), Florida @ Vandy (emotional win v. LSU, looking ahead to South Carolina), and Alabama @ Missouri (looking ahead to @ Tennessee, v. Mississippi State, @ LSU, and v. A&M).

Here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 6 Top-10 recap:

1. While it wasn’t the good ole days of the “Catholics versus the Convicts”, I always enjoy seeing Notre Dame beat Miami. The Irish are the only team in college football that have yet to trail in a game this season. #2 in scoring defense, very few turnovers on offense, lots of forced turnovers on defense, and an incredible front seven on defense have the Irish 5-0 for the first time in 10 years. I do miss Lou Holtz though – remember when he said this before that epic Notre Dame v. Miami game in the late 80s? “After we win the game, if Miami wants to fight, fine, we'll meet 'em in the alley. And if they do, you save Jimmy Johnson's butt for me."

2. Georgia got down right thumped by South Carolina. How good is South Carolina’s defense? Well, I wouldn’t put it up there with Alabama, yet; but they held the SEC’s #1 offense to just over 200 yards of offense, and were a garbage time touchdown away from shutting out the Bulldogs who were averaging 48/game. Impressive, impressive win for Spurrier and company. Can they have a repeat performance this weekend in Death Valley?

3. That USC loss to Stanford seems so long ago. The Trojans have three more cupcakes before the November 3^rd matchup with Oregon. Assuming they don’t blow it @ Washington this weekend, USC will likely be back in the top 7 or so by that big game.

4. Florida’s defense, especially their second half defense, is the main reason the Gators are 5-0. LSU didn’t have a chance; and once again, their offense was exposed. The Tigers need to pick up the pieces quick as South Carolina comes to town this weekend. LSU’s defense will keep them in games, but they’ve gotta find a way to put points on the board.

5. Now that’s the Florida State team I’ve gotten to know over the past few years. Both Florida State and Oklahoma get the award for the last several years titled: “You lost to who?”

6. Missouri dropped to 0-3 in the SEC after losing to Vandy. I think Vandy is probably the happiest school in the SEC these days; knowing they won’t share the basement alone anymore.

7. Speaking of conference winless teams….UofSuck is 0-3 in the PAC-12. Even Colorado has a PAC-12 victory.

8. The Big 10 is so bad that the top 2 teams in the league aren’t eligible for post-season play. I think Minnesota still has a chance at getting to the Big 10 Championship.

9. No one’s gonna say that West Virginia has a good defense, but with their system, it works. With an efficient, quick-strike offense, it just means your defense is going to be on the field a lot. It’s almost like a reverse of what’s common football knowledge – WVU wants their defense out there to give their offense a rest. But, a dangerous trap game this weekend, in Lubbock, against Texas Tech, before the huge matchup the following week with Kansas State.

10. It’s not good when you score 38 and lose by 25. Yes, Nebraska, I’m looking at you…

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Alabama (5-0) – The Tide haven’t given up more than 14 points in any game this year. If that sticks, they’re the champs. Again.

#2 Oregon (6-0) – Bye week this week before traveling to the desert next Thursday.

#3 South Carolina (6-0) – Best South Carolina team I’ve seen.

#4 West Virginia (5-0) – You should be #3, and will be soon once South Carolina loses one of its next two (or both?), but I just can’t have you there now. Beat K State and we’ll talk.

#5 Kansas State (5-0) – Don’t forget about Iowa State this weekend! Gotta win that one first before the West Virginia game means anything.

#6 Notre Dame (5-0) – Can you finally beat Stanford for once?

#7 Florida (5-0) – Didn’t see this one coming…

#8 LSU (5-1) – Things can change in a hurry in the SEC. For the good, or the bad.

#9 USC (4-1) – If you’d quit turning the ball over, you’d still be in the top 5.

#10 Oregon State (4-0) – This is probably the worst Top 10 team I’ve had, but I just couldn’t think of anyone else to put here. At least beat BYU, please.

Rising Fast:

Florida – Didn’t see this coming. But look out @ Vandy this weekend – trap game – with South Carolina coming to the Swamp the following weekend.

Falling Faster:

Florida State – Getting shut out in the second half and losing to unranked NC State is not making the case that you belonged in the top 2.

Heisman Watch:

Geno Smith, West Virginia – Is this guy ever gonna throw an interception?

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Alabama v. Oregon – Clearly the two best teams in football, though South Carolina may disagree.

Week 7 Big Games:

Stanford @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame has lost three straight versus Stanford, but the Irish haven’t given up a touchdown in three games. The bottom line for this game is if Notre Dame’s front seven can keep the pressure on Stanford. Otherwise, those huge tight ends could have a huge day. Notre Dame’s offense will be able to move the ball, but they need touchdowns and not field goals. How will Stanford be emotionally after a big overtime victory and then having to travel to the chilly Midwest? I like Notre Dame in a squeaker 24 to 21

West Virginia @ Texas Tech – Dust off the extra scoreboard lights again. We know WVU will score, but Tech has a powerful offense as well. Like I said last week, WVU is going to run into a team that has both a good enough offense to put up points, but also a good enough defense to sorta slow down Geno and company. But it’s not this week. West Virginia 48 Texas Tech 34

Texas v. Oklahoma – The Red River shootout is here, and nobody seems to care. Oklahoma wins 34-24.

Texas A&M @ Louisiana Tech – Yes, this is a big game. Both teams are ranked, and Louisiana Tech actually has the longest winning streak in the country right now at 12.Grab some extra scoreboard bulbs as well here – two top 10 offenses square off, but the problem is LT is 109^th in the country in scoring defense. Yikes. A&M 44 LT 38

Week 6 Game of the Week:

South Carolina @ LSU – South Carolina has struggled away from home, and Death Valley at night will be a little different than games at Vandy and Kentucky. We know both defenses will come to play, so expect a slow paced, low scoring game. The question is whether or not LSU can find any offense. South Carolina is the better team overall, and unless they have a massive meltdown, I see them winning a huge game on the road (and possibly jumping Oregon in the initial BCS standings) 17-13.

Until next time…