Ever since Notre Dame beat Florida State in 1993 (and then lost a let-down game the following weekend against Boston College by a FG) yet lost the National Championship vote to FSU, I’ve always ranted about the value of head-to-head results over anything else (given even records). Seems I have myself in a pickle now. By head-to-head results only, Auburn should be #3 and Notre Dame should be #4 (given their sole losses to the #1 and #2 teams in the country). But, they’re not. And sure, I think it’s still appropriate to have Oregon over Michigan State. But, now it gets hairy – UofSuck is sitting on one loss (and should’ve been a win with a near chip shot FG against USC that they made before the ‘SC timeout), but who in their right mind would rank them above Oregon? Not I, not anyone. Okay, let’s complicate things a bit more. Baylor beat TCU, but everyone (including me) has TCU higher than Baylor. Alabama lost to Ole Miss just a couple weeks ago, and with Ole Miss’ loss to LSU this weekend, the AP has them four spots behind Alabama. And then there’s Georgia, who’s frantically climbing up the polls, with their lone loss to a four-loss South Carolina team. Yep, I’m beginning to think head-to-head is meaningless; well not meaningless, but certainly less of a factor than 1) how teams lost (which is why both ASU and Ohio State are going to have hard time climbing much higher in the polls), 2) and when teams lost. Throw strength of schedule in there as well (which starts to favor Auburn and Oregon for their non-con wins against Kansas State and Michigan State), and we have the first Top-25 rankings from the playoff committee. More on that later as we get into this weekend’s Top-10 recap; well, make it Top-5 (I’m packing up for a deer hunt as we speak so I need to keep this short):
1) My take home from the LSU/Ole Miss game is threefold: the kicking game plays such a huge roll in college football (Ole Miss couldn’t decide if they wanted to try a FG to tie the game, go for more yards, go for the endzone, take a delay of game, call a timeout, or just let Bo be Bad Bo); never count out LSU at home, especially when they’re down in the 4th quarter (looking at you Alabama); and while the SEC-West is still leading the polls, but they’re going to continue to knock each other off at an alarming rate (not to mention that the SEC-East can help a bit with Georgia-Auburn in a few weeks).
2) Oregon’s offense is back firing on all cylinders, but their defense needs to pick it up some. The Ducks have below-standard Stanford team this weekend, and if they can finally get that Cardinal off their back, they have a very good chance at taking care of Utah in a couple weeks and then just letting the PAC-12 South beat each other up to decide who gets to get beat up by Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship.
3) Mississippi State won in their first game as a #1 ranked team, but they were taken to the wire by a pretty good Kentucky team. It’s another reminder that while many accuse there of being an SEC bias, the reality is the SEC is once again, top to bottom, better than any conference in the country. (Well, if you take out Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida)
4) Wouldn’t it be something if Kansas State wins @ TCU, @ West Virginia, and @ Baylor; with their lone loss being what should’ve been a win against Auburn (a team with as good a shot as any to win the SEC)? If that happens, Kansas State is in. And if the queen had balls, she’d be king.
5) While I find the intrigue behind this week’s first reveal of the committee’s Top-4, I also know that in the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t really matter. There’s too much football to play, and too many upsets yet to happen. But, my initial thoughts: I was surprised (yet agree) with Notre Dame at #10 (they haven’t beaten anyone). I was really surprised at Ole Miss at #3, given how poor their offense looks at time and that fact that they play Auburn this weekend, meaning at least one of the initial Top-4 is going down this weekend (queue the conspiracies about that’s how they want it to happen). Other than that, no major surprises for me. But again, it’s all going to sort itself out in the next month and with the way things are lining up, I think the Top-4 is going to be a lot clearer on December 7th than it is on October 28th. I still think the SEC gets two teams in though, with Oregon and Florida State rounding out the mix.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (7-0) – The last time you played Louisville, it was on the road, on Thursday night, you were #4, they were unranked, and you lost. Just sayin’.
#2. Mississippi State (7-0) – A win is a win is a win. Next up, Arkansas and UT Martin before you go to Tuscaloosa on November 15th. Get healthy, Dak.
#3. Auburn (6-1) – @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, @ Alabama remaining. Huge strength of schedule points if you can run the table.
#4. Alabama (7-1) – Bye week before you head to Death Valley.
#5. Oregon (7-1) – Your ole foe, the Cardinal, come to town this weekend; and they’re vulnerable for a change.
#6. Ole Miss (7-1) – You lose @ Death Valley (where no one wins at night) and everyone has forgotten about you? Maybe because you have no time to recover as Auburn comes to town this weekend.
#7. Michigan State (7-1) – Bye week for you too; then Ohio State comes to town for your last big matchup before the Big 10 Championship.
#8. Notre Dame (6-1) – Just please, God; beat Navy.
#9. Georgia (6-1) – Still can’t believe that the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party hasn’t been played by undefeated teams.
#10. TCU (6-1) – Careful @ Morgantown; remember WestByGod’s only two losses are to Alabama (by 10) and Oklahoma (by 12). WVU should probably be a bit higher in the rankings.
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – But how bad is his foot injury?
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Alabama
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Until FSU loses to Louisville this weekend.
Week 10 Big Games:
Florida State @ Louisville – What do Louisville, Alabama, and Ole Miss have in common? They’re the only teams in college football to have not given up more than 23 points in a game this year. The Cardinals’ are going to have to give up that or fewer if they’re going to have a chance, as their offense isn’t going to be able to play in a shootout with Florida State. But, Florida State is having more off the field problems (I mean, wonderful outstanding citizens in the classroom and off the field; as Jimbo puts it). And this is Thursday night, where ranked favorites on the road go to die. Why not; it’s the hipster pick, but I’ll pick it too; Louisville shakes things up: 31 to 27.
Stanford @ Oregon – Oregon’s National Title march was derailed each of the last two years by Stanford, but the difference in this one is this: each of the last three years, Stanford wound up in a BCS game. Not so this year. Stanford is still physical on both sides of the ball, but Oregon is getting healthy at the right time. Oregon finally gets by the Cardinal, and solidifies their claim to a top-4 spot in the polls: Oregon 37 Stanford 24.
TCU @ West Virginia – We know TCU isn’t going to put up 80 in Morgantown, and we know that WVU’s two losses were to two quality teams: Alabama and Oklahoma. What we don’t know is if TCU’s defense is going to show back up after giving up 33 to Oklahoma, 61 to Baylor, and 27 to Texas Tech. But, West Virginia only beat Texas Tech by three, and TCU beat them by 55. Let the Horned Frogs keep rolling: TCU 44 West Virginia 31.
UofSuck @ UCLA – UofSuck is one FG away from being undefeated; or at least that’s what the pundits will tell you. They must have forgotten that they needed a 36 point 4th quarter against Cal to win, and almost lost to Nevada and the Fighting Roadrunners at UTSA. UCLA has underachieved all season, and look for that to continue. Whatever you do, take the over. I like UofSuck 48 UCLA 45.
Utah @ Arizona State – After giving up 62 to UCLA and 34 to USC, ASU suddenly learned how to play defense – only giving up 10/each in wins against Stanford and Washington. Utah has gone Stanford on us; not only are they big and physical, but they can’t play a game that’s decided by more than seven points – they’re four PAC-12 games have been decided by a total of 12 points. You east coasters will have to read about this one since it doesn’t kick-off until 11:00pm Eastern time. Too bad. You’re missing out on an Arizona State team starting to peak at the right time: ASU 30 to 24.
Week 10 Game of the Week:
Auburn @ Ole Miss – Ole Miss needs to dust itself off quick. After the upset to LSU, Auburn brings a much better offense into this one; though Ole Miss still has the #1 scoring defense in the country. Here’s the scary thing – Auburn won the turnover battle against LSU 4-1, gave up 10 points, and lost. Why? LSU lined up and hammered it time and time again inside the tackles. You’ll see the same thing here, but instead of the play action pass being freed up by the inside running game, the outside options are going to allow Auburn to run wild. Ole Miss goes down two weeks in a row: Auburn 27 Ole Miss 20.
Until next time…
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Week 8 Recap and Week 9 Preview
Two more unbeatens go down, and now the SEC has four teams in the Top-5; the first time that’s ever happened (one conference having four in the top five), and they’re all in the same division! My bet that the SEC will have two in the Final Four is looking better and better, and there are some scenarios where they could have three teams. Heck, I’ve even seen a fourth scenario where they wind up all four slots, but that is predicated by FSU losing twice, which isn’t going to happen. They are vulnerable though, as they were largely outplayed and outcoached in Tallahassee by a Notre Dame squad with half the talent. Here’s the Top 10 recap:
1) Let’s just get it over with right away: yes, it was a pick play. Notre Dame dared the ref’s to call it, and they did (even the head referee mouthed “are you sure?” when told of the foul). The two most unfortunate things about the play (other than the FSU player that tore his helmet off after the play and could’ve been flagged for that): 1) the Irish TD in the first half was an actual real pick and wasn’t called (and it should’ve been called) and 2) the final pick play wasn’t even necessary as Robinson was so wide open from blown coverage that the other two Irish receivers could’ve just stood on the line and not moved. As Kelly said: “they were rewarded for blown coverage.”
2) One last comment about FSU before we move on to the SEC and other conferences. I almost puked during Jimbo’s post game comments when he said that Florida State “is a high-character program that’s ran the right way, on class, on dignity, in the classroom, off the field, and this team shows it.” That reminded me of the All Valley Tournament scene in Karate Kid III when Terry Silver hypocritically talked about importance of giving back to the community through the self-confidence and inner peace instilled by Karate, and the virtues of honesty, compassion, and fair play. Sorry Jimbo, we ain’t buying it. I miss the days of Jimmy Johnson’s Miami teams where they didn’t pretend they weren’t criminals – they embraced it.
3) Of all the Top-15 teams, the one that I still don’t have a good read on is Kansas State. They’re just outside the Top-10 and are the only team remaining in the Big 12 that is undefeated in conference play. They got lucky to beat Oklahoma this weekend (ever seen one of the best kickers in the game hook a 19 yard FG wide left by 30 feet?), but also were in a great position to beat Auburn. Then again, they struggled @ Iowa State but looked great against Texas Tech. Even though they’re sitting in first in the Big 12 right now, they still have @ TCU, @ West Virginia, and @ Baylor. I don’t think they’re going to be sitting in first for long.
4) Everyone seems to have forgotten about the Big 10 after Ohio State’s loss to Virginia Tech and Michigan State’s loss to Oregon. But, those teams haven’t loss since, and they bring in the 3rd and 4th scoring offenses in the country. Sure, part of that is their competition, but don’t think that a one loss Big 10 Champion doesn’t have legitimate claim to be in the Top-4. Especially if it winds up being Michigan State which would have a win over Ohio State and two wins over Nebraska, with their sole loss to Oregon (who’s chances to win the PAC-12 and get in the playoff are getting better and better by the weekend). I can see it now – the Final Four winds up being two teams from the SEC-West and Michigan State and Oregon (assuming Florida State losses again somewhere along the way – oh wait, that’s right, they didn’t lose to Notre Dame. Grrr……right up there with the phantom clip against Colorado in the ’91 Orange Bowl or the Reggie Bush “I’ll just illegally push Matt Leinart into the endzone” in 2005). Oh wait, where was I? That’s right – imagine if the Final Four winds up being two rematches! So much for the “every week is a playoff” crowd…
5) Two reason’s you can tell it’s almost November: Alabama is back in the Top-5 in scoring defense, and Georgia is probably the best one loss team in the country. From the opening minutes, Alabama took it straight to Texas A&M and finally exposed the Aggie offense as a unit that lost their QB, best WR, and left tackle to the NFL. And, even without Gurley for the last two weeks, Georgia’s running game hasn’t missed a beat, and they’re not running away with the SEC-East. That cross-divisional game with Auburn in a few weeks seems to be the Bulldogs last major chance for a stumble before the SEC Championship Game. Speaking of Auburn – they have @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, and @ Alabama remaining. That quite possibly could be three more losses. Safe to the say, even though they have four in the Top-5 right now, the SEC-West isn’t done beating each other up.
6) West Virginia lost the turnover battle 0-3, but still beat Baylor. How? Well, Baylor’s 18 penalties sure didn’t help. But, with the score tied at 27 going into the 4th quarter, West Virginia’s defense really tightened down and kept Bryce Perry and crew in check. That’s something you haven’t heard much about in the Baylor-West Virginia matchups the last couple of years: defense. Great win in Morgantown for the Mountaineers, and if they keep winning, that’s going to help out Alabama with strength-of-schedule points.
7) Whenever people start to doubt Oregon, it seems Washington shows up on their schedule. After struggling against Washington State and losing to UofSuck, the Ducks took care of Oregon, and then blasted Washington like they always do – that’s not 11 straight years of 17+ point wins in the cross state matchup. With Stanford losing yet again, all of the sudden, November 8th @ Utah seems to be the Ducks last major hurdle before the PAC-12 Championship and a likely spot in the Top-4.
8) So who is Oregon going to face from the PAC-12 South? There’s a log jam happening right now, as four teams are sitting at one less, with USC holding the tie breaker over UofSuck, ASU holding the tie breaker over USC, and Utah having to play all three (plus Oregon and Stanford). It’s looking like the Territorial Cup may decide the PAC-12 South, assuming both ASU and UofSuck can hold serve until the last weekend in November. Regardless, for a team that gave up 62 to UCLA and was left for dead, I’ve been impressed with how ASU has responded by not quitting against USC in the Coliseum and by dominating a Stanford team on both sides of the ball. It should be noted that the PAC-12 South has four out of their five teams ranked in the Top 25. Take that, SEC West!
9) The old saying in college football is that it’s better to lose early than late. In the case of TCU, not only is it better to lose early than late, but also to not play anyone late. By the time LSU and Alabama tee it off late on November 8th, TCU will be done with their last real challenge against Kansas State. After that, they have Kansas, Texas, and Iowa State to close the season with no Conference Championship. If they find themselves in the top six or seven going into that game, they may just sneak into the Top-4 via attrition as here’s the other big games happening on November 8th or later: Ohio State @ Michigan State, Notre Dame @ Arizona State, Baylor @ Oklahoma, Mississippi State @ Alabama, Auburn @ Georgia, K State @ West Virginia, UCLA @ USC, Mississippi State @ Ole Miss, Auburn @ Alabama, Notre Dame @ USC, Kansas State @ Baylor, Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma, and the Big 10, PAC-12, SEC, and ACC Conference Championships. TCU’s got a great chance to not only win the Big 12 but to coast into the Top-4.
10) Regardless of what happens in the next seven or eight weeks, the committee is going to have their hands full – especially if they continue to state putting a high value on the result of head-to-head matchups. Michigan State is out because of the loss the Oregon. Same for Notre Dame at the hands of FSU. Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl losers? Out. No one wants to see those matchups again. So then you have to start looking at good losses versus bad losses. All those mentioned above are “good losses.” Oregon going to down to UofSuck, Georgia to South Carolina? Not so much. Yet, interestingly enough, Georgia and Oregon are playing some of the best football right now. The most interesting scenario is what happens if a one loss Georgia beats an undefeated Mississippi (or State) team in the SEC Championship. Georgia’s in for sure. But now you have a likely one loss team (or maybe two – winner of Iron Bowl may end with one loss) that didn’t make the conference championship and a one loss team that just lost the conference championship but beat their in-state rival the week before. Ah, my head hurts. Hopefully it’ll all be straightened out on the field in the next eight weeks, and given the history, it will. Even if there’s only one second left…
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (7-0) – After Louisville next week, their last “tough” game will be the ACC Championship against Duke or Pitt. But, I’m giving Louisville a chance – at home, on Thursday night…
#2. Mississippi State (6-0) – I don’t have you at #1 because you still have @ Alabama and @ Ole Miss (let alone the SEC Championship against Georgia – if you make it that far).
#3. Ole Miss (7-0) – @ LSU this weekend before Auburn comes to town next weekend. It’s a TRAP! Death Valley @ night. Good luck.
#4. Auburn (6-1) – @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, @ Alabama remaining, and don’t sleep against South Carolina this weekend.
#5. Alabama (6-1) – If you win @ Death Valley in three weeks, you lose v. Mississippi State the following weekend. If you lose @ LSU, you probably beat MSU. Regardless, another loss is coming, as Auburn’s still out there, too. Just not against Tennessee or Western Carolina.
#6. Oregon (6-1) – You might actually be able to beat Stanford this year is you can score 14+ points, as Stanford can’t seem to score more than 10-14 points against good teams.
#7. Michigan State (6-1) – Needs to run the table and needs SEC and PAC-12 losses to pile up.
#8. Notre Dame (6-1) – Ok, fine; you’re a top-10 team. Now just don’t blow it against Navy in a couple weeks.
#9. Georgia (6-1) – Just might be the best team in the whole SEC right now, and that’s saying a lot.
#10. TCU (6-1) – Up 21 @ Baylor with 11 minutes to go and you couldn’t seal the deal. The committee is going to remember that.
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Vegas is giving the best odds to Mariota right now; I’m guessing they’re just trying to recoup some money based on the payouts they’re going to have to make when Dak wins.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Auburn
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – I wonder if the refs will throw a flag in the closing seconds of this one?
Week 9 Big Games:
USC @ Utah – Utah is off to a 5-1 start, but their three PAC-12 games have been decided by a total of nine points. They did blow out Michigan in the Big House, but that’s not saying much this year. USC’s two losses came inexplicably to Boston College and that bizarre Hail Mary against ASU. Not sure what to expect in this one, except that Utah is similar in mold to Stanford (which almost beat USC) and Boston College – a physical line, power running game, and strong defense. Let’s take the Utes in a slugfest: 27 to 24.
Alabama @ Tennessee – Alabama 38 Tennessee 10 (if I don’t include this game every year I get yelled at from too many people in the South).
Week 9 Game of the Week:
Ole Miss @ LSU – Many folks are saying the LSU is going to pull the upset here; that Bo Wallace is due to make some more mistakes, and that LSU can’t possibly lose another one in Death Valley at night. They’re also point to their last two games to show that the Tigers’ have turned things around after their first two SEC games. Well, of course they looked better against Florida and Kentucky than against Mississippi State and Auburn! The Rebels and their #1 scoring defense keep rolling – Mississippi 38 LSU 27.
Until next time…
1) Let’s just get it over with right away: yes, it was a pick play. Notre Dame dared the ref’s to call it, and they did (even the head referee mouthed “are you sure?” when told of the foul). The two most unfortunate things about the play (other than the FSU player that tore his helmet off after the play and could’ve been flagged for that): 1) the Irish TD in the first half was an actual real pick and wasn’t called (and it should’ve been called) and 2) the final pick play wasn’t even necessary as Robinson was so wide open from blown coverage that the other two Irish receivers could’ve just stood on the line and not moved. As Kelly said: “they were rewarded for blown coverage.”
2) One last comment about FSU before we move on to the SEC and other conferences. I almost puked during Jimbo’s post game comments when he said that Florida State “is a high-character program that’s ran the right way, on class, on dignity, in the classroom, off the field, and this team shows it.” That reminded me of the All Valley Tournament scene in Karate Kid III when Terry Silver hypocritically talked about importance of giving back to the community through the self-confidence and inner peace instilled by Karate, and the virtues of honesty, compassion, and fair play. Sorry Jimbo, we ain’t buying it. I miss the days of Jimmy Johnson’s Miami teams where they didn’t pretend they weren’t criminals – they embraced it.
3) Of all the Top-15 teams, the one that I still don’t have a good read on is Kansas State. They’re just outside the Top-10 and are the only team remaining in the Big 12 that is undefeated in conference play. They got lucky to beat Oklahoma this weekend (ever seen one of the best kickers in the game hook a 19 yard FG wide left by 30 feet?), but also were in a great position to beat Auburn. Then again, they struggled @ Iowa State but looked great against Texas Tech. Even though they’re sitting in first in the Big 12 right now, they still have @ TCU, @ West Virginia, and @ Baylor. I don’t think they’re going to be sitting in first for long.
4) Everyone seems to have forgotten about the Big 10 after Ohio State’s loss to Virginia Tech and Michigan State’s loss to Oregon. But, those teams haven’t loss since, and they bring in the 3rd and 4th scoring offenses in the country. Sure, part of that is their competition, but don’t think that a one loss Big 10 Champion doesn’t have legitimate claim to be in the Top-4. Especially if it winds up being Michigan State which would have a win over Ohio State and two wins over Nebraska, with their sole loss to Oregon (who’s chances to win the PAC-12 and get in the playoff are getting better and better by the weekend). I can see it now – the Final Four winds up being two teams from the SEC-West and Michigan State and Oregon (assuming Florida State losses again somewhere along the way – oh wait, that’s right, they didn’t lose to Notre Dame. Grrr……right up there with the phantom clip against Colorado in the ’91 Orange Bowl or the Reggie Bush “I’ll just illegally push Matt Leinart into the endzone” in 2005). Oh wait, where was I? That’s right – imagine if the Final Four winds up being two rematches! So much for the “every week is a playoff” crowd…
5) Two reason’s you can tell it’s almost November: Alabama is back in the Top-5 in scoring defense, and Georgia is probably the best one loss team in the country. From the opening minutes, Alabama took it straight to Texas A&M and finally exposed the Aggie offense as a unit that lost their QB, best WR, and left tackle to the NFL. And, even without Gurley for the last two weeks, Georgia’s running game hasn’t missed a beat, and they’re not running away with the SEC-East. That cross-divisional game with Auburn in a few weeks seems to be the Bulldogs last major chance for a stumble before the SEC Championship Game. Speaking of Auburn – they have @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, and @ Alabama remaining. That quite possibly could be three more losses. Safe to the say, even though they have four in the Top-5 right now, the SEC-West isn’t done beating each other up.
6) West Virginia lost the turnover battle 0-3, but still beat Baylor. How? Well, Baylor’s 18 penalties sure didn’t help. But, with the score tied at 27 going into the 4th quarter, West Virginia’s defense really tightened down and kept Bryce Perry and crew in check. That’s something you haven’t heard much about in the Baylor-West Virginia matchups the last couple of years: defense. Great win in Morgantown for the Mountaineers, and if they keep winning, that’s going to help out Alabama with strength-of-schedule points.
7) Whenever people start to doubt Oregon, it seems Washington shows up on their schedule. After struggling against Washington State and losing to UofSuck, the Ducks took care of Oregon, and then blasted Washington like they always do – that’s not 11 straight years of 17+ point wins in the cross state matchup. With Stanford losing yet again, all of the sudden, November 8th @ Utah seems to be the Ducks last major hurdle before the PAC-12 Championship and a likely spot in the Top-4.
8) So who is Oregon going to face from the PAC-12 South? There’s a log jam happening right now, as four teams are sitting at one less, with USC holding the tie breaker over UofSuck, ASU holding the tie breaker over USC, and Utah having to play all three (plus Oregon and Stanford). It’s looking like the Territorial Cup may decide the PAC-12 South, assuming both ASU and UofSuck can hold serve until the last weekend in November. Regardless, for a team that gave up 62 to UCLA and was left for dead, I’ve been impressed with how ASU has responded by not quitting against USC in the Coliseum and by dominating a Stanford team on both sides of the ball. It should be noted that the PAC-12 South has four out of their five teams ranked in the Top 25. Take that, SEC West!
9) The old saying in college football is that it’s better to lose early than late. In the case of TCU, not only is it better to lose early than late, but also to not play anyone late. By the time LSU and Alabama tee it off late on November 8th, TCU will be done with their last real challenge against Kansas State. After that, they have Kansas, Texas, and Iowa State to close the season with no Conference Championship. If they find themselves in the top six or seven going into that game, they may just sneak into the Top-4 via attrition as here’s the other big games happening on November 8th or later: Ohio State @ Michigan State, Notre Dame @ Arizona State, Baylor @ Oklahoma, Mississippi State @ Alabama, Auburn @ Georgia, K State @ West Virginia, UCLA @ USC, Mississippi State @ Ole Miss, Auburn @ Alabama, Notre Dame @ USC, Kansas State @ Baylor, Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma, and the Big 10, PAC-12, SEC, and ACC Conference Championships. TCU’s got a great chance to not only win the Big 12 but to coast into the Top-4.
10) Regardless of what happens in the next seven or eight weeks, the committee is going to have their hands full – especially if they continue to state putting a high value on the result of head-to-head matchups. Michigan State is out because of the loss the Oregon. Same for Notre Dame at the hands of FSU. Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl losers? Out. No one wants to see those matchups again. So then you have to start looking at good losses versus bad losses. All those mentioned above are “good losses.” Oregon going to down to UofSuck, Georgia to South Carolina? Not so much. Yet, interestingly enough, Georgia and Oregon are playing some of the best football right now. The most interesting scenario is what happens if a one loss Georgia beats an undefeated Mississippi (or State) team in the SEC Championship. Georgia’s in for sure. But now you have a likely one loss team (or maybe two – winner of Iron Bowl may end with one loss) that didn’t make the conference championship and a one loss team that just lost the conference championship but beat their in-state rival the week before. Ah, my head hurts. Hopefully it’ll all be straightened out on the field in the next eight weeks, and given the history, it will. Even if there’s only one second left…
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (7-0) – After Louisville next week, their last “tough” game will be the ACC Championship against Duke or Pitt. But, I’m giving Louisville a chance – at home, on Thursday night…
#2. Mississippi State (6-0) – I don’t have you at #1 because you still have @ Alabama and @ Ole Miss (let alone the SEC Championship against Georgia – if you make it that far).
#3. Ole Miss (7-0) – @ LSU this weekend before Auburn comes to town next weekend. It’s a TRAP! Death Valley @ night. Good luck.
#4. Auburn (6-1) – @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, @ Alabama remaining, and don’t sleep against South Carolina this weekend.
#5. Alabama (6-1) – If you win @ Death Valley in three weeks, you lose v. Mississippi State the following weekend. If you lose @ LSU, you probably beat MSU. Regardless, another loss is coming, as Auburn’s still out there, too. Just not against Tennessee or Western Carolina.
#6. Oregon (6-1) – You might actually be able to beat Stanford this year is you can score 14+ points, as Stanford can’t seem to score more than 10-14 points against good teams.
#7. Michigan State (6-1) – Needs to run the table and needs SEC and PAC-12 losses to pile up.
#8. Notre Dame (6-1) – Ok, fine; you’re a top-10 team. Now just don’t blow it against Navy in a couple weeks.
#9. Georgia (6-1) – Just might be the best team in the whole SEC right now, and that’s saying a lot.
#10. TCU (6-1) – Up 21 @ Baylor with 11 minutes to go and you couldn’t seal the deal. The committee is going to remember that.
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Vegas is giving the best odds to Mariota right now; I’m guessing they’re just trying to recoup some money based on the payouts they’re going to have to make when Dak wins.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Auburn
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – I wonder if the refs will throw a flag in the closing seconds of this one?
Week 9 Big Games:
USC @ Utah – Utah is off to a 5-1 start, but their three PAC-12 games have been decided by a total of nine points. They did blow out Michigan in the Big House, but that’s not saying much this year. USC’s two losses came inexplicably to Boston College and that bizarre Hail Mary against ASU. Not sure what to expect in this one, except that Utah is similar in mold to Stanford (which almost beat USC) and Boston College – a physical line, power running game, and strong defense. Let’s take the Utes in a slugfest: 27 to 24.
Alabama @ Tennessee – Alabama 38 Tennessee 10 (if I don’t include this game every year I get yelled at from too many people in the South).
Week 9 Game of the Week:
Ole Miss @ LSU – Many folks are saying the LSU is going to pull the upset here; that Bo Wallace is due to make some more mistakes, and that LSU can’t possibly lose another one in Death Valley at night. They’re also point to their last two games to show that the Tigers’ have turned things around after their first two SEC games. Well, of course they looked better against Florida and Kentucky than against Mississippi State and Auburn! The Rebels and their #1 scoring defense keep rolling – Mississippi 38 LSU 27.
Until next time…
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Week 7 Recap and Week 8 Preview
We’re down to six unbeaten teams (well, five, since Marshall really doesn’t count), and at least one more is going down this weekend as Notre Dame travels to Tallahassee and we know the Egg Bowl will claim another before it’s said and done. It’s starting to look like 2007 where we wound up with no undefeated teams and ended up with a two loss LSU team winning it all. Only six unbeatens after week 7? Last year at this stage there were 14, and the year before 12. Call if parity, call it scheduling, call it coaching, call it something; but it sure is fun to watch as we pass the midpoint of the season and head down the stretch. Here’s the Top 10 recap:
1) Thanks to Washington, the “ice the kicker” timeouts are back in style. I see those work maybe once every three or four years. Well in Tucson this weekend (after ya’ll went to bed), Washington iced the kicker twice, at the end of the first half and the end of the game. The result? Both kicks were good, timeouts were called split seconds before the kicks, and the both second kicks missed or were blocked. The last one cost UofSuck the game. The most interesting part of that game was that despite their undefeated record and Top-10 ranking, UofSuck was a home underdog to an unranked USC team. A two point underdog. Final score: 28-26, USC. Man, those guys in Vegas are good.
2) UCLA falls to Oregon at home, giving the Ducks the clear path once again to the PAC-12 Championship. But, it’s becoming abundantly clear that home field “advantage” is not an advantage in the PAC-12 this year. In conference play, home teams are only 4-14 at home. That’s great when you’re Oregon going to Pasadena, but it doesn’t look so great when Stanford’s coming Eugene in three weeks, not to mention Washington this week.
3) It took Gurley getting suspended to wake up Georgia’s defense, and the Bulldogs went into Missouri and blew out the Tigers (being home isn’t so nice in the SEC either, right Texas A&M). Georgia had the ball for almost ¾ of the game, and Missouri was o’fer on third down and turned it over five times and never stood a chance. That Georgia loss @ South Carolina seems so long ago, and Georgia’s not only right back into things in the SEC East but right back into the Top-10.
4) The Fighting Irish gave up 43 points to an average (at best) North Carolina team, but still won. That’s the most points they’ve ever given up in a game and still won. You know what else is giving it up? Everett Golson. Nine turnovers in the last three games for the Irish QB, and they’re 3-0. That’s fine against the likes of Syracuse and North Carolina (and even “we always play good teams to a margin of victory of seven or less” Stanford), but that isn’t going to work this weekend at Notre Dame heads to Florida State for their first true road game of the year. A FSU team that is falling in the major polls faster than Obama’s approval rating, despite continuing to win.
5) Even when Baylor found themselves down to a really good TCU team by 21 points with just over 11 minutes to play, you still had that feeling that if anyone was going to pull off the victory, it would be Bryce Petty and company. No lead is safe against Baylor’s offense, but they have to get that defense figured out. Especially heading to dangerous Morgantown this weekend (upset alert?)
6) Alabama hasn’t looked great all season, and as the critics get a bit louder, Saban is getting a bit more irritated. They did hang on against a good Arkansas team though, even if it was the refs that helped them out a bit at the end. Still, at this point in the year, a win is a win. And, scheduling is lining up in their favor, with home games against A&M, LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn. If home field means anything anymore. Keep in mind, since joining the SEC, A&M is winless at home against ranked teams, but has won more than half of those games on the road.
7) Despite Texas sucking this year, and Oklahoma being pretty good, we finally had a close Red River shootout. Oklahoma’s been a beneficiary of good scheduling too, as the Sooners are now 32-0 following a regular season loss since 2000. Oklahoma needs to take care of K State this weekend, and then not fall on the road to Iowa State (TRAP GAME) before Baylor comes to town for the defacto Big 12 Championship on November 8th.
8) Don’t tell Oklahoma State I said that. Since barely losing to FSU in week one, the Cowboys have rattled off five straight and are back in the Top-15. They gotta head to TCU this weekend though, and I don’t think the Horned Frogs are going to give up 21 point 4th quarter leads again. And, the Cowboys close with games against Baylor and Oklahoma, so they could still make some noise in the Big 12, or at least play spoiler.
9) In the only big game result I missed last weekend (5-1 ain’t bad, 18-9 overall), Mississippi went into College Station and dominated the #3 scoring offense in the nation. In some ways, this was more impressive than last week’s huge win against Alabama. Yet, despite starting 6-0 for the first time in more than 50 years, Ole Miss is still playing red-headed step child to their neighbors from Starkville.
10) I’ve been saying all year that we’ve got a bunch of good to great teams this year, but not one or two dominate teams. I’ve been wrong. Mississippi State has rattled off three straight victories against Top-10 foes, and find themselves coasting into a bye week as the #1 team in the major polls (but not my poll; sorry, FSU’s path to undefeatedhood is still much easier that Miss St’s). Dak Prescott is the Heisman winner unless something completely crazy happens, and their schedule lightens up a bit with the bye and four of their next five against Kentucky, Arkansas, UT Martin, and Vanderbilt. Assuming they get by Kentucky, November 15th @ Alabama will be a huge game, but don’t forget that’s the week after ‘Bama goes to LSU. Things are good for the state of Mississippi!
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (6-0) – Despite how bad you’ve looked at times, I just can’t move you down when you keep winning.
#2. Mississippi State (6-0) – For the purposes of the playoff, #2 is just as good as #1, so don’t worry, Dak.
#3. Baylor (6-0) – You thought Notre Dame giving up 43 and winning was impressive? The Bears gave up 25 more than that and still won!
#4. Ole Miss (6-0) – A loss is looming, I know it.
#5. Auburn (5-1) – Best one loss team in the country right now.
#6. Alabama (5-1) – Need to get some things cleaned up to stay in the picture.
#7. Notre Dame (6-0) – I still don’t think you’re a Top-10 team (maybe if I keep saying this, it’ll work!). Flashback to ’93 coming up this weekend!
#8. Oregon (5-1) – It sure helps when your o-line actually blocks every once in a while.
#9. Michigan State (5-1) – Still can’t have you above Oregon when you lost to them.
#10. (Georgia (5-1) – Remember us?
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – But, Bryce Perry can close the gap a bit with another big performance against Oklahoma State.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Auburn
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Baylor
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Who would’ve thought seven weeks ago that the best shot for the SEC to regain the Championship was via one of the Mississippi schools?
Week 8 Big Games:
Kansas State @ Oklahoma – Kansas State’s only blemish is against Auburn, a game they really should’ve won. Oklahoma went down to TCU a couple weeks ago, but overall has been less then stellar in Big 12 play, struggling against the likes of Texas and West Virginia. I think Oklahoma is still benefitting from their win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl – i.e. they’re overrated. I like Kansas State and their stellar defense to pull the upset in Norman: 27 to 20.
Texas A&M @ Alabama – The last two versions of this game have been downright classics – Johnny Football storming off to a three TD lead in Tuscaloosa two years ago and then holding on to win, and last year’s slug fest revenge win for ‘Bama. Not as much hype leading up to this one, as Texas A&M still hasn’t figured out how to play defense, and Alabama is being forgotten about as all of the hype is on the Mississippi schools. Look for Kiffin and Saban and pull off the gloves in this one, and Alabama wins with some style points: 45 to 27.
Oklahoma State @ TCU – TCU is an epic collapse away from being in the Top-5, and most people forget that Oklahoma State took FSU down to the wire in week 1. Safe to say, if TCU scores 58 this weekend, they’re not losing; and they might score that many as they’re the #3 scoring team in the country, along with that usually (except for last weekend) stingy defense. Look for TCU to fix some things in the secondary, put up a bunch more points, and keep their Big 12 title hopes alive. TCU 45 Oklahoma State 33.
Stanford @ Arizona State – Stanford brings the #1 scoring defense into Tempe this weekend, to take on the Sun Devils, whom they’ve owned recently (beating ASU handily both times they played last year). Stanford hasn’t given up more than 17 points in any game all year, yet they find themselves with two losses already. ASU can score, but their defense is downright horrible, and Stanford should have no problems running up and down the field. The only reason I give ASU the slightest chance in this one is because of Stanford’s tendency to play ranked teams extremely close. But in the end, I like Stanford in a blowout – 41 to 24.
Week 8 Game of the Week:
Notre Dame @ Florida State – Notre Dame is a true road team for the first time all year, and they’re a ~12 point underdog to the Seminoles. But, that’s down from a 24-point dog at the beginning of the year, so Vegas is liking the Irish a bit more (and/or doubting FSU a bit more). Both teams are dealing with off-the-field drama, and while Notre Dame has exceeded expectations this year, FSU has not, despite still being undefeated. As mentioned above, the key to this game will be Everett Golson. FSU will score a bunch, but if Golson turns it over repeatedly and keeps giving FSU a short field to work with, it will get ugly early. The other big key is how Notre Dame handles their first true road game of the year and the raucous crowd in Tallahassee. That can lead to mental mistakes, penalties, wasted timeouts, and turnovers. This isn’t your ’93 Irish, but this version of FSU is fairly similar to ’93 – very athletic and mobile QB, and incredible athletes all over the field. This one’s shaping up to be a repeat of the Notre Dame/Alabama game – Notre Dame has just enough tangibles (Golson, Robinson, and their defense) to make you think they can actually keep themselves in the game, but at the end it’ll be clear that what I’ve been saying all year is true: Notre Dame is not a Top-10 team. Florida State 31 Note Dame 24
Until next time…
1) Thanks to Washington, the “ice the kicker” timeouts are back in style. I see those work maybe once every three or four years. Well in Tucson this weekend (after ya’ll went to bed), Washington iced the kicker twice, at the end of the first half and the end of the game. The result? Both kicks were good, timeouts were called split seconds before the kicks, and the both second kicks missed or were blocked. The last one cost UofSuck the game. The most interesting part of that game was that despite their undefeated record and Top-10 ranking, UofSuck was a home underdog to an unranked USC team. A two point underdog. Final score: 28-26, USC. Man, those guys in Vegas are good.
2) UCLA falls to Oregon at home, giving the Ducks the clear path once again to the PAC-12 Championship. But, it’s becoming abundantly clear that home field “advantage” is not an advantage in the PAC-12 this year. In conference play, home teams are only 4-14 at home. That’s great when you’re Oregon going to Pasadena, but it doesn’t look so great when Stanford’s coming Eugene in three weeks, not to mention Washington this week.
3) It took Gurley getting suspended to wake up Georgia’s defense, and the Bulldogs went into Missouri and blew out the Tigers (being home isn’t so nice in the SEC either, right Texas A&M). Georgia had the ball for almost ¾ of the game, and Missouri was o’fer on third down and turned it over five times and never stood a chance. That Georgia loss @ South Carolina seems so long ago, and Georgia’s not only right back into things in the SEC East but right back into the Top-10.
4) The Fighting Irish gave up 43 points to an average (at best) North Carolina team, but still won. That’s the most points they’ve ever given up in a game and still won. You know what else is giving it up? Everett Golson. Nine turnovers in the last three games for the Irish QB, and they’re 3-0. That’s fine against the likes of Syracuse and North Carolina (and even “we always play good teams to a margin of victory of seven or less” Stanford), but that isn’t going to work this weekend at Notre Dame heads to Florida State for their first true road game of the year. A FSU team that is falling in the major polls faster than Obama’s approval rating, despite continuing to win.
5) Even when Baylor found themselves down to a really good TCU team by 21 points with just over 11 minutes to play, you still had that feeling that if anyone was going to pull off the victory, it would be Bryce Petty and company. No lead is safe against Baylor’s offense, but they have to get that defense figured out. Especially heading to dangerous Morgantown this weekend (upset alert?)
6) Alabama hasn’t looked great all season, and as the critics get a bit louder, Saban is getting a bit more irritated. They did hang on against a good Arkansas team though, even if it was the refs that helped them out a bit at the end. Still, at this point in the year, a win is a win. And, scheduling is lining up in their favor, with home games against A&M, LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn. If home field means anything anymore. Keep in mind, since joining the SEC, A&M is winless at home against ranked teams, but has won more than half of those games on the road.
7) Despite Texas sucking this year, and Oklahoma being pretty good, we finally had a close Red River shootout. Oklahoma’s been a beneficiary of good scheduling too, as the Sooners are now 32-0 following a regular season loss since 2000. Oklahoma needs to take care of K State this weekend, and then not fall on the road to Iowa State (TRAP GAME) before Baylor comes to town for the defacto Big 12 Championship on November 8th.
8) Don’t tell Oklahoma State I said that. Since barely losing to FSU in week one, the Cowboys have rattled off five straight and are back in the Top-15. They gotta head to TCU this weekend though, and I don’t think the Horned Frogs are going to give up 21 point 4th quarter leads again. And, the Cowboys close with games against Baylor and Oklahoma, so they could still make some noise in the Big 12, or at least play spoiler.
9) In the only big game result I missed last weekend (5-1 ain’t bad, 18-9 overall), Mississippi went into College Station and dominated the #3 scoring offense in the nation. In some ways, this was more impressive than last week’s huge win against Alabama. Yet, despite starting 6-0 for the first time in more than 50 years, Ole Miss is still playing red-headed step child to their neighbors from Starkville.
10) I’ve been saying all year that we’ve got a bunch of good to great teams this year, but not one or two dominate teams. I’ve been wrong. Mississippi State has rattled off three straight victories against Top-10 foes, and find themselves coasting into a bye week as the #1 team in the major polls (but not my poll; sorry, FSU’s path to undefeatedhood is still much easier that Miss St’s). Dak Prescott is the Heisman winner unless something completely crazy happens, and their schedule lightens up a bit with the bye and four of their next five against Kentucky, Arkansas, UT Martin, and Vanderbilt. Assuming they get by Kentucky, November 15th @ Alabama will be a huge game, but don’t forget that’s the week after ‘Bama goes to LSU. Things are good for the state of Mississippi!
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (6-0) – Despite how bad you’ve looked at times, I just can’t move you down when you keep winning.
#2. Mississippi State (6-0) – For the purposes of the playoff, #2 is just as good as #1, so don’t worry, Dak.
#3. Baylor (6-0) – You thought Notre Dame giving up 43 and winning was impressive? The Bears gave up 25 more than that and still won!
#4. Ole Miss (6-0) – A loss is looming, I know it.
#5. Auburn (5-1) – Best one loss team in the country right now.
#6. Alabama (5-1) – Need to get some things cleaned up to stay in the picture.
#7. Notre Dame (6-0) – I still don’t think you’re a Top-10 team (maybe if I keep saying this, it’ll work!). Flashback to ’93 coming up this weekend!
#8. Oregon (5-1) – It sure helps when your o-line actually blocks every once in a while.
#9. Michigan State (5-1) – Still can’t have you above Oregon when you lost to them.
#10. (Georgia (5-1) – Remember us?
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – But, Bryce Perry can close the gap a bit with another big performance against Oklahoma State.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Auburn
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Baylor
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Who would’ve thought seven weeks ago that the best shot for the SEC to regain the Championship was via one of the Mississippi schools?
Week 8 Big Games:
Kansas State @ Oklahoma – Kansas State’s only blemish is against Auburn, a game they really should’ve won. Oklahoma went down to TCU a couple weeks ago, but overall has been less then stellar in Big 12 play, struggling against the likes of Texas and West Virginia. I think Oklahoma is still benefitting from their win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl – i.e. they’re overrated. I like Kansas State and their stellar defense to pull the upset in Norman: 27 to 20.
Texas A&M @ Alabama – The last two versions of this game have been downright classics – Johnny Football storming off to a three TD lead in Tuscaloosa two years ago and then holding on to win, and last year’s slug fest revenge win for ‘Bama. Not as much hype leading up to this one, as Texas A&M still hasn’t figured out how to play defense, and Alabama is being forgotten about as all of the hype is on the Mississippi schools. Look for Kiffin and Saban and pull off the gloves in this one, and Alabama wins with some style points: 45 to 27.
Oklahoma State @ TCU – TCU is an epic collapse away from being in the Top-5, and most people forget that Oklahoma State took FSU down to the wire in week 1. Safe to say, if TCU scores 58 this weekend, they’re not losing; and they might score that many as they’re the #3 scoring team in the country, along with that usually (except for last weekend) stingy defense. Look for TCU to fix some things in the secondary, put up a bunch more points, and keep their Big 12 title hopes alive. TCU 45 Oklahoma State 33.
Stanford @ Arizona State – Stanford brings the #1 scoring defense into Tempe this weekend, to take on the Sun Devils, whom they’ve owned recently (beating ASU handily both times they played last year). Stanford hasn’t given up more than 17 points in any game all year, yet they find themselves with two losses already. ASU can score, but their defense is downright horrible, and Stanford should have no problems running up and down the field. The only reason I give ASU the slightest chance in this one is because of Stanford’s tendency to play ranked teams extremely close. But in the end, I like Stanford in a blowout – 41 to 24.
Week 8 Game of the Week:
Notre Dame @ Florida State – Notre Dame is a true road team for the first time all year, and they’re a ~12 point underdog to the Seminoles. But, that’s down from a 24-point dog at the beginning of the year, so Vegas is liking the Irish a bit more (and/or doubting FSU a bit more). Both teams are dealing with off-the-field drama, and while Notre Dame has exceeded expectations this year, FSU has not, despite still being undefeated. As mentioned above, the key to this game will be Everett Golson. FSU will score a bunch, but if Golson turns it over repeatedly and keeps giving FSU a short field to work with, it will get ugly early. The other big key is how Notre Dame handles their first true road game of the year and the raucous crowd in Tallahassee. That can lead to mental mistakes, penalties, wasted timeouts, and turnovers. This isn’t your ’93 Irish, but this version of FSU is fairly similar to ’93 – very athletic and mobile QB, and incredible athletes all over the field. This one’s shaping up to be a repeat of the Notre Dame/Alabama game – Notre Dame has just enough tangibles (Golson, Robinson, and their defense) to make you think they can actually keep themselves in the game, but at the end it’ll be clear that what I’ve been saying all year is true: Notre Dame is not a Top-10 team. Florida State 31 Note Dame 24
Until next time…
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
Week 6 Recap and Week 7 Preview
For the first time ever, five of the Top-8 teams in the AP poll lost on the same weekend. With the way the schedules were lining up, and the failure for any one team to distance themselves from the pack, it wasn’t a matter of if this was going to happen, but when. It also highlights a big problem in college football – preseason polling. Preseason college football polls lately are becoming more and more like Doc Brown’s crazy mind-reader machine. Had you told Dr. Brown back in mid-September what was going to happen in week 6, he would’ve said: “Do you know what this means……it means that this DAMN thing doesn’t work!” Well, that’s becoming more and more true about preseason, and even early season polls, in college football. No need to even begin releasing things until conference play begins. However, despite the massive amount of upsets this weekend (and certainly more to come), the most interesting thing is that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Meaning, the overall playoff picture hasn’t significantly changed much, even though we have few teams new to the top of the polls. More on that, as we get into the Top 10 recap:
1) Despite UCLA’s luck running out finally, and Oregon losing to UofSuck (again), not much has changed in the PAC-12 race. No, UofSuck isn’t a Top-10 team and will quickly lose two or three (or more in the PAC-12). Remember, UofSuck barely beat UTSA and Nevada, and needed a Hail Mary to beat Cal at home. And, despite USC losing on a Hail Mary to ASU (what a bizarre play that was!) and Stanford falling to Notre Dame (in yet another Stanford game decided by seven or less), the PAC-12 race is right where it started out to be: between Oregon and UCLA. And, with the SEC really looking like it’s going to beat each other up now (no offense, Mississippi schools, but I just don’t see the Egg Bowl as the game deciding the SEC West), it still looks like the PAC-12 Champion has a good shot to get to the Final Four. And, we get a preview at that likely PAC-12 Championship this weekend at Oregon heads down to Palo Alto with both teams looking to get back on track.
2) In the Big 12, I called the TCU upset over Oklahoma. Despite being ranked #1 in some of the power polls, Oklahoma wasn’t impressing me, and in some ways were only in that position because of their win over an unmotivated Alabama team in the Sugar Bowl last year. And, Big Game Bob hasn’t been so for about 15 years. But, even with OU going down, the Big 12 Championship (and probably Final Four spot) is probably still going to come down to the Baylor-OU game. Especially because TCU goes down to Baylor this weekend.
3) The most surprising result of the week (including the upsets) was Auburn manhandling LSU and dominating every aspect of that game and handing Les Miles his worst loss as LSU’s coach. LSU had beaten Auburn three straight (including Auburn’s only regular season loss last year), but not only is Auburn’s offense back to firing on all cylinders, but their defense is playing better and better every week. But, it doesn’t get any easier for Auburn now, starting @ Mississippi State this weekend.
4) While most people’s take away from the Alabama/Ole Miss game was the Alabama is/was undefeated, I see things differently (especially if you actually watched the game). Alabama owned that game on both sides of the ball until that key turnover in the 4th quarter on the kick off following the Ole Miss score. And even then, thanks to the blocked extra point on the ensuing touchdown, they were in a position to win the game. Make no mistake, Alabama isn’t the juggernaut this year that they have been in previous years, but even when Alabama makes huge 4th quarter mistakes and misses FG’s, they’re still in position to win games. I still think they have a good chance to come out of the SEC-West, especially because of their experience. Mississippi State and Ole Miss aren’t used to what is going to be mounting pressure each and every week.
5) With Michigan State’s big come-from-ahead win against Nebraska, we’re seeing something interesting happening in the Big 10. While the SEC and PAC-12 start to beat each other up, the Big 10 is extremely happy to be in conference play. Michigan State and Ohio State are starting to run away with the conference, and the early losses by both teams are becoming distant memories. They always say in college football that it’s better to lose early than late (witness Michigan State ahead of Oregon in the polls), and as the prize fighters in the SEC keep knocking each off, it’s starting to look like the Big 10 Champion may sneak into the Top-4.
6) I still insist Notre Dame isn’t a Top-10 team. Sure, that’s a nice win against Stanford this weekend, but they lose that game if Stanford doesn’t make one missed assignment on that key 4th and 11 with a minute to go in the game that allowed Notre Dame to score the winning TD. Big mistakes and turnovers for both teams, but penalties and that missed assignment did Stanford in. But, Notre Dame still has @ Florida State, @ Arizona State, and @ USC (not mention @ pesky Navy). With one loss, Notre Dame will be out of the playoff picture.
7) Speaking of Arizona State and USC, I’ve seen lots of Hail Mary’s over the years, but I’ve never seen one like that, especially because ASU in essence had two Hail Mary’s – scoring on a 73-yard TD reception just a couple minutes earlier. After stopping USC to get the ball back, ASU only needed ~20 yards to get into FG range but opted to go for the Hail Mary. The result was an underthrown pop fly pass caught by an ASU guy in dead sprint as three of four USC players sat there like they were about to fair catch a punt. Arizona State still alive in the PAC-12 South.
8) That ASU Hail Mary was bizarre, but not as bizarre as the trick play TCU pulled off against Oklahoma. After tying the game, OU kicked off to the Horned Frogs. One of TCU’s players (dressed in their dark uniforms) had laid down in the dark painted end zone and was camouflaged. After the receiver caught the kick and started up field, the guy got up and caught a lateral, nearly getting to midfield in the process. But alas, the play was wiped out by a holding penalty. If you didn’t see the play, look it up; it’s pretty good.
9) I’m sold on Mississippi State (which of course means they’ll lose this weekend). Dak Prescott is playing like a Heisman, the defense is solid, the offense controls the ball/clock, and they’ve responded to challenges thusfar in SEC-West play. If they can somehow get by Auburn this week, they’ve a let up in schedule until they head to Tuscaloosa on November 15th.
10) While I wasn’t much of a fan of the BCS, and I think the four team playoff is a step in the right direction, I still get sick of the “every week is a playoff” mantra you hear so often. If that was the case, all five of these Top-8 teams that lost this weekend would be out of contention with so much football left to play. Thankfully they’re not; as I don’t think a week 6 loss should eliminate anyone from contention in a playoff. Call it a double elimination pre-playoff to the playoff, as all five teams that lost this weekend have no more room for error. Especially with six more huge games slated for week 7.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (5-0) – Still #1, but still vulnerable.
#2. Auburn (5-0) – It’s like the end of 2013 all over again!
#3. Baylor (5-0) – Your schedule makes it more likely that you’ll remain unbeaten. That’s important for the committee. Why, I don’t know. But it is.
#4. Mississippi State (5-0) – Two huge wins in a row and now all of the sudden you’re in contention. You’re also a home underdog this weekend to Auburn.
#5. Ole Miss (5-0) – Huge, emotional win v. Alabama; immediately followed by a trip to a pissed off A&M team. Yeah, have fun with that.
#6. Alabama (4-1) – Remember that two of three Alabama’s recent National Championships included a loss to a quality team from the SEC West. If ‘Bama doesn’t turn it over twice in the second half and makes some field goals, they win that game easily and are #2. Things aren’t over for the Tide.
#7. Notre Dame (5-0) – I still don’t think you’re a Top-10 team, but if everyone else keeps losing, and you keep winning, what am I supposed to do?
#8. Oregon (4-1) – As long as you have the same number of losses as Michigan State, I’ll have you ranked ahead of them. But, you need to take care of UCLA this weekend.
#9. Michigan State (4-1) – Congrats on winning the Big 10!
#10.TCU (4-0) – Welcome to the Top-10! Enjoy it while it lasts, because I have a feeling you won’t be here long!
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Coolest named QB we’ve seen in a while, best QB in the country right now on the hottest team in the country right now in best conference overall (and best division by far). But, the spotlight won’t be easy, especially with your upcoming schedule
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Mississippi State
#2 Auburn v. #3 Baylor
Championship: Mississippi State v. Auburn – Wouldn’t it be interesting if the first four team playoff in college football history gave a rematch of a regular season SEC game? With the teams that are left in the hunt, it’s entirely possible…
Week 7 Big Games:
Georgia @ Missouri – Missouri beat South Carolina and Georgia did not, so that gives an automatic nod to Missouri in this one, especially since they’re at home, right? In the words of Lee Corse – not so fast! Missouri is going to see a steady dose of Gurley all day long, and Georgia is overall the better team (as in, they didn’t lose to Indiana). Georgia regains control in the SEC-East: 38 to 27.
TCU @ Baylor – Oh how things change in the Big 12. The second weekend in October, and the featured game in Texas between Top-10 teams isn’t the Red River Shootout, but TCU/Baylor. Patterson’s boys better be ready to play early. We see it so many times. A team with an emotional win the weekend before struggles in their next game. Especially on the road. Especially with a quality opponent. All three of those are in play this weekend. Baylor scores early and often and blows TCU back to the middle of the Big 12: Baylor 52 TCU 38.
Oregon @ UCLA – This was supposed to be a Top-10 matchup and preview of the PAC-12 Championship, but with both teams stumbling against lesser foes this past weekend, we’re left with just two teams wanting to get back into things. UCLA hasn’t looked great all year (except against Arizona State) and Oregon’s offensive line looks like a series of human turn-styles. But, again, outside of the game against ASU (and who doesn’t look good against ASU’s defense?), UCLA hasn’t looked great against Virginia, Memphis, Texas, and Utah. Oregon heads into Pasadena and gets a win in the Rose Bowl: 43 to 30.
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M – Ole Miss’ stock is at an all-time high following their upset of Alabama, and A&M’s is at a yearly low after its loss at Mississippi State. But, I’ll say it again – huge emotional win followed by a tough game on the road, and that spells trouble for Ole Miss (especially with their safety being suspended for the first half for that cheap shot against Alabama that ended up breaking the leg of their running back). I’ll sell high and buy low, and take A&M: Texas A&M 45 Ole Miss 27.
USC @ UofSuck – UofSuck is the last undefeated team in the PAC-12, and they’re back at home against a two-loss USC team. And they’re a three point underdog. When Vegas knows, they know. Remember, this UofSuck team barely beat UTSA and Nevada, and needed a Hail Mary and 36 point 4th quarter to beat lowly Cal. And they caught Oregon at the right time on a Thursday night (where favorites go to die) with a beat up offensive line. USC 27 UofSuck 20.
Week 7 Game of the Week:
Auburn @ Mississippi State – Dak and Co. are back at home, and it’s just another game against a Top-10 opponent, as Mississippi State tries to keep their magical run alive. The problem is, Auburn is the team coming to town – not only the #2 in the current polls, but the #2 team from last year as well. And, their defense is much better than last year but most importantly, they aren’t as one dimension on offense this year, and Nick Marshall has Auburn rolling. Look for a shootout in this one, as both teams know they’re best defense will be a good offense as the other is going to score as well. My gut says War Eagle, but my heart says Dak Prescott: Mississippi State 41 Auburn 38.
Until next time…
1) Despite UCLA’s luck running out finally, and Oregon losing to UofSuck (again), not much has changed in the PAC-12 race. No, UofSuck isn’t a Top-10 team and will quickly lose two or three (or more in the PAC-12). Remember, UofSuck barely beat UTSA and Nevada, and needed a Hail Mary to beat Cal at home. And, despite USC losing on a Hail Mary to ASU (what a bizarre play that was!) and Stanford falling to Notre Dame (in yet another Stanford game decided by seven or less), the PAC-12 race is right where it started out to be: between Oregon and UCLA. And, with the SEC really looking like it’s going to beat each other up now (no offense, Mississippi schools, but I just don’t see the Egg Bowl as the game deciding the SEC West), it still looks like the PAC-12 Champion has a good shot to get to the Final Four. And, we get a preview at that likely PAC-12 Championship this weekend at Oregon heads down to Palo Alto with both teams looking to get back on track.
2) In the Big 12, I called the TCU upset over Oklahoma. Despite being ranked #1 in some of the power polls, Oklahoma wasn’t impressing me, and in some ways were only in that position because of their win over an unmotivated Alabama team in the Sugar Bowl last year. And, Big Game Bob hasn’t been so for about 15 years. But, even with OU going down, the Big 12 Championship (and probably Final Four spot) is probably still going to come down to the Baylor-OU game. Especially because TCU goes down to Baylor this weekend.
3) The most surprising result of the week (including the upsets) was Auburn manhandling LSU and dominating every aspect of that game and handing Les Miles his worst loss as LSU’s coach. LSU had beaten Auburn three straight (including Auburn’s only regular season loss last year), but not only is Auburn’s offense back to firing on all cylinders, but their defense is playing better and better every week. But, it doesn’t get any easier for Auburn now, starting @ Mississippi State this weekend.
4) While most people’s take away from the Alabama/Ole Miss game was the Alabama is/was undefeated, I see things differently (especially if you actually watched the game). Alabama owned that game on both sides of the ball until that key turnover in the 4th quarter on the kick off following the Ole Miss score. And even then, thanks to the blocked extra point on the ensuing touchdown, they were in a position to win the game. Make no mistake, Alabama isn’t the juggernaut this year that they have been in previous years, but even when Alabama makes huge 4th quarter mistakes and misses FG’s, they’re still in position to win games. I still think they have a good chance to come out of the SEC-West, especially because of their experience. Mississippi State and Ole Miss aren’t used to what is going to be mounting pressure each and every week.
5) With Michigan State’s big come-from-ahead win against Nebraska, we’re seeing something interesting happening in the Big 10. While the SEC and PAC-12 start to beat each other up, the Big 10 is extremely happy to be in conference play. Michigan State and Ohio State are starting to run away with the conference, and the early losses by both teams are becoming distant memories. They always say in college football that it’s better to lose early than late (witness Michigan State ahead of Oregon in the polls), and as the prize fighters in the SEC keep knocking each off, it’s starting to look like the Big 10 Champion may sneak into the Top-4.
6) I still insist Notre Dame isn’t a Top-10 team. Sure, that’s a nice win against Stanford this weekend, but they lose that game if Stanford doesn’t make one missed assignment on that key 4th and 11 with a minute to go in the game that allowed Notre Dame to score the winning TD. Big mistakes and turnovers for both teams, but penalties and that missed assignment did Stanford in. But, Notre Dame still has @ Florida State, @ Arizona State, and @ USC (not mention @ pesky Navy). With one loss, Notre Dame will be out of the playoff picture.
7) Speaking of Arizona State and USC, I’ve seen lots of Hail Mary’s over the years, but I’ve never seen one like that, especially because ASU in essence had two Hail Mary’s – scoring on a 73-yard TD reception just a couple minutes earlier. After stopping USC to get the ball back, ASU only needed ~20 yards to get into FG range but opted to go for the Hail Mary. The result was an underthrown pop fly pass caught by an ASU guy in dead sprint as three of four USC players sat there like they were about to fair catch a punt. Arizona State still alive in the PAC-12 South.
8) That ASU Hail Mary was bizarre, but not as bizarre as the trick play TCU pulled off against Oklahoma. After tying the game, OU kicked off to the Horned Frogs. One of TCU’s players (dressed in their dark uniforms) had laid down in the dark painted end zone and was camouflaged. After the receiver caught the kick and started up field, the guy got up and caught a lateral, nearly getting to midfield in the process. But alas, the play was wiped out by a holding penalty. If you didn’t see the play, look it up; it’s pretty good.
9) I’m sold on Mississippi State (which of course means they’ll lose this weekend). Dak Prescott is playing like a Heisman, the defense is solid, the offense controls the ball/clock, and they’ve responded to challenges thusfar in SEC-West play. If they can somehow get by Auburn this week, they’ve a let up in schedule until they head to Tuscaloosa on November 15th.
10) While I wasn’t much of a fan of the BCS, and I think the four team playoff is a step in the right direction, I still get sick of the “every week is a playoff” mantra you hear so often. If that was the case, all five of these Top-8 teams that lost this weekend would be out of contention with so much football left to play. Thankfully they’re not; as I don’t think a week 6 loss should eliminate anyone from contention in a playoff. Call it a double elimination pre-playoff to the playoff, as all five teams that lost this weekend have no more room for error. Especially with six more huge games slated for week 7.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (5-0) – Still #1, but still vulnerable.
#2. Auburn (5-0) – It’s like the end of 2013 all over again!
#3. Baylor (5-0) – Your schedule makes it more likely that you’ll remain unbeaten. That’s important for the committee. Why, I don’t know. But it is.
#4. Mississippi State (5-0) – Two huge wins in a row and now all of the sudden you’re in contention. You’re also a home underdog this weekend to Auburn.
#5. Ole Miss (5-0) – Huge, emotional win v. Alabama; immediately followed by a trip to a pissed off A&M team. Yeah, have fun with that.
#6. Alabama (4-1) – Remember that two of three Alabama’s recent National Championships included a loss to a quality team from the SEC West. If ‘Bama doesn’t turn it over twice in the second half and makes some field goals, they win that game easily and are #2. Things aren’t over for the Tide.
#7. Notre Dame (5-0) – I still don’t think you’re a Top-10 team, but if everyone else keeps losing, and you keep winning, what am I supposed to do?
#8. Oregon (4-1) – As long as you have the same number of losses as Michigan State, I’ll have you ranked ahead of them. But, you need to take care of UCLA this weekend.
#9. Michigan State (4-1) – Congrats on winning the Big 10!
#10.TCU (4-0) – Welcome to the Top-10! Enjoy it while it lasts, because I have a feeling you won’t be here long!
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Coolest named QB we’ve seen in a while, best QB in the country right now on the hottest team in the country right now in best conference overall (and best division by far). But, the spotlight won’t be easy, especially with your upcoming schedule
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Mississippi State
#2 Auburn v. #3 Baylor
Championship: Mississippi State v. Auburn – Wouldn’t it be interesting if the first four team playoff in college football history gave a rematch of a regular season SEC game? With the teams that are left in the hunt, it’s entirely possible…
Week 7 Big Games:
Georgia @ Missouri – Missouri beat South Carolina and Georgia did not, so that gives an automatic nod to Missouri in this one, especially since they’re at home, right? In the words of Lee Corse – not so fast! Missouri is going to see a steady dose of Gurley all day long, and Georgia is overall the better team (as in, they didn’t lose to Indiana). Georgia regains control in the SEC-East: 38 to 27.
TCU @ Baylor – Oh how things change in the Big 12. The second weekend in October, and the featured game in Texas between Top-10 teams isn’t the Red River Shootout, but TCU/Baylor. Patterson’s boys better be ready to play early. We see it so many times. A team with an emotional win the weekend before struggles in their next game. Especially on the road. Especially with a quality opponent. All three of those are in play this weekend. Baylor scores early and often and blows TCU back to the middle of the Big 12: Baylor 52 TCU 38.
Oregon @ UCLA – This was supposed to be a Top-10 matchup and preview of the PAC-12 Championship, but with both teams stumbling against lesser foes this past weekend, we’re left with just two teams wanting to get back into things. UCLA hasn’t looked great all year (except against Arizona State) and Oregon’s offensive line looks like a series of human turn-styles. But, again, outside of the game against ASU (and who doesn’t look good against ASU’s defense?), UCLA hasn’t looked great against Virginia, Memphis, Texas, and Utah. Oregon heads into Pasadena and gets a win in the Rose Bowl: 43 to 30.
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M – Ole Miss’ stock is at an all-time high following their upset of Alabama, and A&M’s is at a yearly low after its loss at Mississippi State. But, I’ll say it again – huge emotional win followed by a tough game on the road, and that spells trouble for Ole Miss (especially with their safety being suspended for the first half for that cheap shot against Alabama that ended up breaking the leg of their running back). I’ll sell high and buy low, and take A&M: Texas A&M 45 Ole Miss 27.
USC @ UofSuck – UofSuck is the last undefeated team in the PAC-12, and they’re back at home against a two-loss USC team. And they’re a three point underdog. When Vegas knows, they know. Remember, this UofSuck team barely beat UTSA and Nevada, and needed a Hail Mary and 36 point 4th quarter to beat lowly Cal. And they caught Oregon at the right time on a Thursday night (where favorites go to die) with a beat up offensive line. USC 27 UofSuck 20.
Week 7 Game of the Week:
Auburn @ Mississippi State – Dak and Co. are back at home, and it’s just another game against a Top-10 opponent, as Mississippi State tries to keep their magical run alive. The problem is, Auburn is the team coming to town – not only the #2 in the current polls, but the #2 team from last year as well. And, their defense is much better than last year but most importantly, they aren’t as one dimension on offense this year, and Nick Marshall has Auburn rolling. Look for a shootout in this one, as both teams know they’re best defense will be a good offense as the other is going to score as well. My gut says War Eagle, but my heart says Dak Prescott: Mississippi State 41 Auburn 38.
Until next time…
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
Week 5 Recap and Week 6 Preview
The week 5 Recap, in a series one sentences statements: (I was camping much of the weekend, so didn’t watch much, there really wasn’t much to talk about anyways, and the week 6 preview is too damn exciting with seven big games on the schedule, so I’m spending my time there)
1) Florida State was challenged early as predicted.
2) South Carolina still isn’t very good.
3) The SEC-West still is.
4) Case in point, Arkansas is the best two loss team in the country.
5) Georgia might be the most overrated one loss team in the country.
6) Baylor continues to roll.
7) Yet another Stanford game decided by seven or less.
8) Nebraska is the only undefeated team left in the B1G.
9) UofSuck is one of three undefeateds left in the PAC-12 (though that’ll change Thursday).
10) UCLA just scored; again.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (4-0) – Forget about October 18 v. Notre Dame. Thursday, October 30th @ Louisville will be interesting.
#2. Oklahoma (4-0) – We’ll finally know more after this weekend @ TCU.
#3. Alabama (4-0) – Four out of your next five away from Tuscaloosa, including @ Ole Miss, @ Arkansas, @ LSU, and that one “Third Saturday in October” thing (which the game is actually the 4th Saturday in October this year, and most of the last 20 years, but whatever).
#4. Oregon (4-0) – Don’t be peaking ahead to UCLA, now!
#5. Auburn (4-0) – Your remaining schedule makes Alabama’s look like cake: eight games, six of whom are ranked in the Top-15 right now.
#6. Texas A&M (5-0) – Six of your last seven are against teams ranked in the Top-24. Safe to say, the polls are going to start shaking soon!
#7. UCLA (4-0) – Finally got their offense figured out (sure, it was against the Arizona JuCo coalition) but now you have to find your defense against before Oregon comes to town on October 11th. But, don’t overlook Utah this weekend – this on screams TRAP!
#8. Baylor (4-0) – No love for the Bears, probably because they STILL haven’t played anyone.
#9. Michigan State (3-1) – The way the SEC and PAC-12 are going to beat themselves up, and the way FSU has looked vulnerable, you may just find yourself in the playoff. But, gotta take care of Nebraska first.
#10. Ole Miss (4-0) – The obligatory “I really don’t think you’re the #10 team in the country, but neither is Notre Dame, so I’ll keep you here until you lose to Alabama” ranking. I should just start doing a Top-9.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – The best part about Oregon’s bye is that Mariota didn’t get sacked another seven times this past weekend. And now he has Thursday night to lay the wood to UofSuck.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Oregon
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – Again, which one of these Top-4 teams will lose? The upsets are a comin’, and it’s not a matter of it, or even when these teams lose; it’s how many times and who’s left standing – not only after the season but after the conference championships and semi-finals.
Week 6 Big Games:
Arizona @ Oregon – UofSuck is 4-0 and sixth in the nation with nearly 600 yards of total offense a game. Oregon’s defense still needs to improve, as they’re 10th in the PAC-12 in total defense, giving up nearly 450/game. And, UofSuck beat Oregon 42-16 last year. But let’s remember what happened the last time the Wildcats travelled to Eugene – they got obliterated 49-0. And Oregon hasn’t lost at home to unranked teams since they lost to Boise back in 2008. Make no mistake, UofSuck will score, but it won’t be enough since their defense is probably worse than Oregon’s. First to 60 wins: Oregon 65 UofSuck 38
Oklahoma @ TCU – Whether in the Big 12 or previously in the Mountain West, TCU has given Stoops and Company fits, either winning outright, or pushing Oklahoma down to the wire. TCU’s got the top ranked defense in the Big 12, and are at home; but OU is coming off of a bye and are ranked #1 overall in ESPN’s Power Poll Index, but this is one of those games that if Oklahoma loses, you aren’t necessarily shocked. On the road, against a great defense, and a much improved offense. Let’s go ahead and call the upset and get things shaking this year: TCU 38 Oklahoma 34.
LSU @ Auburn – Nearly identical teams when you look at offensive and defensive stats so far to start the season. Auburn’s at home, which should help, and LSU’s already shown they can be beat. But also remember, LSU was the only team to beat Auburn last year (well, until the National Championship Game). A win by LSU would throw some chaos into the SEC-West, but don’t worry; that’s going to come regardless of what happens here on Saturday night with the way the schedules are going to play out. Vegas likes Auburn by more than a TD, but I think it’ll be closer than that, even though LSU is starting a freshman QB. Special teams and turnovers will decide this one. Let’s give the nod to Auburn: 31-27.
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State – I’d normally like A&M in this one as they’re the better team, but we’ve often talked about let down games. Mississippi State is at home and off a bye, and A&M is coming off of an emotional O.T. win against Arkansas and is travelling to Mississippi for an early start time. That spells a slow start for A&M (just like we saw last week when FSU went to N.C. State). And similar to that game, the question is can Mississippi State hold off the late rally from A&M, which is going to happen, the same way they were able to against LSU? The answer is no. A&M is used to the spotlight now, and once they start scoring in the 2nd half, MSU won’t be able to respond. I like A&M 45 Mississippi St. 34.
Stanford @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame is ranked 9th in the country, despite their four opponents so far this year having zero wins against Power 5 conference. This is still Notre Dame, I guess. But, Stanford has owned Notre Dame lately, beating the Irish four out of the last five times they’ve played; the exception being in South Bend two years ago when Notre Dame stuffed Stanford on four straight runs inside the one yard line to win it 20-13 in O.T. Notre Dame has played sloppy at times this year (five turnovers last week against Syracuse), and they haven’t been tested all year, only trailing for a couple of minutes. Stanford brings the best defense in the nation, and a battle tested team that constantly plays close games and finds a way to win most of them. Unless Golson has a huge game and the Irish win the turnover margin by three or more, I don’t see a way Notre Dame prevails in this one, but as usual with most games Stanford plays, it’ll be close: Stanford 23 Notre Dame 17.
Nebraska @ Michigan State – In a likely preview of the Big 10 Championship Game, the main matchup to watch will be Abdullah (167 yards/game) and the Husker’s run game (355/game) against the Michigan State defense that is only giving up around 80/yards a game on the ground. Nebraska is 5-0 and only ranked #19 in the country which tells you something about where their program stands, especially since after this week they only have one ranked opponent on the schedule. Maybe it’s the fact that Pelini has never started 6-0 at Nebraska, or maybe it’s because Michigan State (in addition to a great defense) is putting up more than 50 a game and was well in command @ Eugene before the wheels fell off in the 2nd half? Regardless, Nebraska hasn’t played well in big road games since joining the B1G, and I still can’t forget how Nebraska needed a miracle to get by McNeese State at home a couple weeks ago. With two good offenses, but only one great defense in this one, you gotta go with Sparty: Michigan State 31 Nebraska 24.
Week 6 Game of the Week:
Alabama @ Ole Miss – Ole Miss hasn’t beaten Alabama since Eli Manning was playing QB, but this year, it’s Ole Miss that comes into the game with the #1 defense in the SEC (right now, at least). Also, Bo Wallace has more yards and TD’s than Blake Sims, despite all of the hype being given to Alabama’s offense so far this year. The biggest problem is that ‘Bama’s defense is solid, as always, and Wallace has been prone to making mental mistakes and throwing too many picks (six already this year). The lead up to this game has a big upset brewing as many think Alabama is overrated this year. But, when the dust settles, it’ll just be another step in Saban’s “process” and we’ll all say “oh yeah, Alabama is good this year.” Alabama in a squeaker: 20 to 17.
Until next time…
1) Florida State was challenged early as predicted.
2) South Carolina still isn’t very good.
3) The SEC-West still is.
4) Case in point, Arkansas is the best two loss team in the country.
5) Georgia might be the most overrated one loss team in the country.
6) Baylor continues to roll.
7) Yet another Stanford game decided by seven or less.
8) Nebraska is the only undefeated team left in the B1G.
9) UofSuck is one of three undefeateds left in the PAC-12 (though that’ll change Thursday).
10) UCLA just scored; again.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (4-0) – Forget about October 18 v. Notre Dame. Thursday, October 30th @ Louisville will be interesting.
#2. Oklahoma (4-0) – We’ll finally know more after this weekend @ TCU.
#3. Alabama (4-0) – Four out of your next five away from Tuscaloosa, including @ Ole Miss, @ Arkansas, @ LSU, and that one “Third Saturday in October” thing (which the game is actually the 4th Saturday in October this year, and most of the last 20 years, but whatever).
#4. Oregon (4-0) – Don’t be peaking ahead to UCLA, now!
#5. Auburn (4-0) – Your remaining schedule makes Alabama’s look like cake: eight games, six of whom are ranked in the Top-15 right now.
#6. Texas A&M (5-0) – Six of your last seven are against teams ranked in the Top-24. Safe to say, the polls are going to start shaking soon!
#7. UCLA (4-0) – Finally got their offense figured out (sure, it was against the Arizona JuCo coalition) but now you have to find your defense against before Oregon comes to town on October 11th. But, don’t overlook Utah this weekend – this on screams TRAP!
#8. Baylor (4-0) – No love for the Bears, probably because they STILL haven’t played anyone.
#9. Michigan State (3-1) – The way the SEC and PAC-12 are going to beat themselves up, and the way FSU has looked vulnerable, you may just find yourself in the playoff. But, gotta take care of Nebraska first.
#10. Ole Miss (4-0) – The obligatory “I really don’t think you’re the #10 team in the country, but neither is Notre Dame, so I’ll keep you here until you lose to Alabama” ranking. I should just start doing a Top-9.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – The best part about Oregon’s bye is that Mariota didn’t get sacked another seven times this past weekend. And now he has Thursday night to lay the wood to UofSuck.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Oregon
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – Again, which one of these Top-4 teams will lose? The upsets are a comin’, and it’s not a matter of it, or even when these teams lose; it’s how many times and who’s left standing – not only after the season but after the conference championships and semi-finals.
Week 6 Big Games:
Arizona @ Oregon – UofSuck is 4-0 and sixth in the nation with nearly 600 yards of total offense a game. Oregon’s defense still needs to improve, as they’re 10th in the PAC-12 in total defense, giving up nearly 450/game. And, UofSuck beat Oregon 42-16 last year. But let’s remember what happened the last time the Wildcats travelled to Eugene – they got obliterated 49-0. And Oregon hasn’t lost at home to unranked teams since they lost to Boise back in 2008. Make no mistake, UofSuck will score, but it won’t be enough since their defense is probably worse than Oregon’s. First to 60 wins: Oregon 65 UofSuck 38
Oklahoma @ TCU – Whether in the Big 12 or previously in the Mountain West, TCU has given Stoops and Company fits, either winning outright, or pushing Oklahoma down to the wire. TCU’s got the top ranked defense in the Big 12, and are at home; but OU is coming off of a bye and are ranked #1 overall in ESPN’s Power Poll Index, but this is one of those games that if Oklahoma loses, you aren’t necessarily shocked. On the road, against a great defense, and a much improved offense. Let’s go ahead and call the upset and get things shaking this year: TCU 38 Oklahoma 34.
LSU @ Auburn – Nearly identical teams when you look at offensive and defensive stats so far to start the season. Auburn’s at home, which should help, and LSU’s already shown they can be beat. But also remember, LSU was the only team to beat Auburn last year (well, until the National Championship Game). A win by LSU would throw some chaos into the SEC-West, but don’t worry; that’s going to come regardless of what happens here on Saturday night with the way the schedules are going to play out. Vegas likes Auburn by more than a TD, but I think it’ll be closer than that, even though LSU is starting a freshman QB. Special teams and turnovers will decide this one. Let’s give the nod to Auburn: 31-27.
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State – I’d normally like A&M in this one as they’re the better team, but we’ve often talked about let down games. Mississippi State is at home and off a bye, and A&M is coming off of an emotional O.T. win against Arkansas and is travelling to Mississippi for an early start time. That spells a slow start for A&M (just like we saw last week when FSU went to N.C. State). And similar to that game, the question is can Mississippi State hold off the late rally from A&M, which is going to happen, the same way they were able to against LSU? The answer is no. A&M is used to the spotlight now, and once they start scoring in the 2nd half, MSU won’t be able to respond. I like A&M 45 Mississippi St. 34.
Stanford @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame is ranked 9th in the country, despite their four opponents so far this year having zero wins against Power 5 conference. This is still Notre Dame, I guess. But, Stanford has owned Notre Dame lately, beating the Irish four out of the last five times they’ve played; the exception being in South Bend two years ago when Notre Dame stuffed Stanford on four straight runs inside the one yard line to win it 20-13 in O.T. Notre Dame has played sloppy at times this year (five turnovers last week against Syracuse), and they haven’t been tested all year, only trailing for a couple of minutes. Stanford brings the best defense in the nation, and a battle tested team that constantly plays close games and finds a way to win most of them. Unless Golson has a huge game and the Irish win the turnover margin by three or more, I don’t see a way Notre Dame prevails in this one, but as usual with most games Stanford plays, it’ll be close: Stanford 23 Notre Dame 17.
Nebraska @ Michigan State – In a likely preview of the Big 10 Championship Game, the main matchup to watch will be Abdullah (167 yards/game) and the Husker’s run game (355/game) against the Michigan State defense that is only giving up around 80/yards a game on the ground. Nebraska is 5-0 and only ranked #19 in the country which tells you something about where their program stands, especially since after this week they only have one ranked opponent on the schedule. Maybe it’s the fact that Pelini has never started 6-0 at Nebraska, or maybe it’s because Michigan State (in addition to a great defense) is putting up more than 50 a game and was well in command @ Eugene before the wheels fell off in the 2nd half? Regardless, Nebraska hasn’t played well in big road games since joining the B1G, and I still can’t forget how Nebraska needed a miracle to get by McNeese State at home a couple weeks ago. With two good offenses, but only one great defense in this one, you gotta go with Sparty: Michigan State 31 Nebraska 24.
Week 6 Game of the Week:
Alabama @ Ole Miss – Ole Miss hasn’t beaten Alabama since Eli Manning was playing QB, but this year, it’s Ole Miss that comes into the game with the #1 defense in the SEC (right now, at least). Also, Bo Wallace has more yards and TD’s than Blake Sims, despite all of the hype being given to Alabama’s offense so far this year. The biggest problem is that ‘Bama’s defense is solid, as always, and Wallace has been prone to making mental mistakes and throwing too many picks (six already this year). The lead up to this game has a big upset brewing as many think Alabama is overrated this year. But, when the dust settles, it’ll just be another step in Saban’s “process” and we’ll all say “oh yeah, Alabama is good this year.” Alabama in a squeaker: 20 to 17.
Until next time…
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Preview
We saw two main themes this weekend: the Top-4 are all beatable, and the SEC-West is stacked (undefeated in games against everyone else, except themselves). And the two points are related since the SEC-West has four teams in the Top-10 and six in the Top-17. Also, the Big 10 is back, and the bottom of the Top-10 is getting muddier and muddier as teams start to fall (I still insist that Notre Dame is not a Top-10 team; beat Stanford in a couple weeks and we’ll talk). More on that, as we get into this Top-10 recap:
1) Of the Top-7 teams that played this weekend, only Texas A&M appears flawless, but again, outside of their opening game @ South Carolina, they haven’t played anyone (sorry, Lamar, Rice, and SMU). But that all changes this weekend. A&M eases into SEC-West play against 3-1 Arkansas, and then plays Ole Miss, Mississippi, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU as five of their last seven (and three of those are on the road). I don’t think they’re going to be winning many of those 73-3 or 58-6.
2) Of the other Top-6 teams, Alabama had the easiest time, but that was mainly because of Florida’s porous secondary. Simms nearly set the Alabama single game passing record, and Amari Cooper is now in the Heisman race after 201 yards receiving and three TD’s on only 10 catches. But, Alabama also turned it over four times. That’ll work against Florida, but not against the SEC-West. They’ve got a week to clean things up before they head over to Ole Miss on October 4th.
3) If Oregon is going to win the PAC-12 and contend in the playoff, they’ve got to get healthy on the offensive line. Despite Mariota’s ridiculous numbers (21-25 for 329 yards, 5 TD’s, and 0 INT’s), it’s not good when you’re sacked almost twice as many times as incompletions thrown (seven vs. four). Oregon’s defense has to get better too, especially with some other high powered offenses coming up, specifically UofSuck in two weeks on Thursday night. Good win for Oregon, but you really shouldn’t be in a dog fight into the 4th quarter with Washington State. The Washington State team that hasn’t been good since the Ryan Leaf days, and more recently, the Washington State team that lost to Rutgers and Nevada (but hey, they did beat Portland State).
4) Three turnovers, three missed FG’s. And a loss by six to a Top-5 team. That’s how close Kansas State was to a signature win and getting themselves tossed in the playoff discussion. They held Auburn’s vaunted ground game in check, but their offense and special teams didn’t do them any favors. Still, the loss highlighted a couple key factors for all teams to remember: don’t turn the ball over, and make your FG’s. We’ve seen it time and time again how big FG’s are in college football – remember Oregon against Stanford and Alabama against LSU a couple years ago? Games both decided because the better team missed key FG’s (and not long ones, either). The other thing worth noting about this game: Thursday night games between ranked teams are usually very exciting, and often result in upsets. Next up for Thursday games: UCLA @ ASU this week.
5) Oklahoma’s been getting a lot of love from the various power rankings due to their win @ West Virginia. I think the main reason is that they beat WVU in their place by 12, whereas Alabama only beat them by 10 on a neutral field. I still think that of the Top-5, Oklahoma and Alabama both have yet to be tested (if we’re using West Virginia at the benchmark that should say something). But, what isn’t being talked about it is what role West Virginia may have in deciding the Big 12 and the playoff. They’ve already played both Alabama and Oklahoma close, and they have Baylor and Kansas State at home later this year. The Mountaineers could be playing spoiler in the Big 12.
6) I really don’t want to talk much about FSU. Sure, they beat Clemson (even though Clemson only scored on three of seven trips into the red zone) without their star QB, and now the only one in their path to the playoff and potentially another National Championship is Notre Dame. But, I’m sick of all of the media coverage around this troublemaker Winston. I do applaud FSU for suspending him for the full game rather than just a half, but his rap sheet is getting longer than most rappers, and he’s only a sophomore. I guess one good thing is that he won’t repeat as Heisman winner, and I do hope he grows up a bit, as he is a great talent. But what we’re seeing with Winston is a near direct correlation to what we’re seeing in the NFL headlines these days: many of these players have no accountability because from the time they were 12 years old, their bad behavior has been swept aside and/or covered up because of their athletic talent. And that’s just wrong. These players need to be taught that their off-the-field behavior and accomplishments are what’s going to carry them through life, not the few years they spend between the hedges. Lest they wind up like ex-Phoenix Sun Rex Chapman and countless other broke, criminal, ex-athletes.
7) Mississippi State did something that few do: roll into Death Valley on a Saturday night and beat LSU. But, they almost did what so many others do – allow 4th quarter comeback victories to Les Miles and crew. Despite sucking it up for 3+ quarters, and being down 24 early in the 4th, at the end LSU had the ball and a chance to win. What a wild final few minutes full of, in my opinion, poor coaching decisions. LSU scored with 12+ minutes remaining in the 4th and chose to go for two to cut the lead to 16. The math may add up (cut the lead down to two TD’s and two two-point conversions), but the probabilities do not – there’s no way you’re going to get three TD’s and three two-point conversions in a row. Then, Miss St had a chance to kick a FG to go back up 21, but went for it instead and got stuffed. Then LSU scores again, and now really has to go for two (I guess) and they miss again. Finally, Miss St gives the ball back to LSU and they score quickly and kick the PAT to make it 34-29 and then wind up with ball again in the closing seconds. Had Miles just kicked the PAT’s earlier in the 4th, it’s probably a 34-31 game, and they only need a FG to tie, rather than a Hail Mary to win. That’s why they always say to avoid going for two early.
8) Speaking of Hail Mary’s, in a game no one watched, UofSuck scored 36 points against Cal. In the 4th quarter. Including the game winning TD on a 47-yard heave as time expired to win 49-45. All I gotta say about that is: Thursday October 2nd, UofSuck @ Oregon (revenge game for the Ducks); take the over, I don’t care if it’s at 80+.
9) Finally a good week for the Big 10. They went 12-1 over the weekend, and while many of those wins were against the likes of Eastern Michigan, Massachusetts, Texas State, Southern Illinois; there were victories over Navy, Miami, and of course, Indiana’s shocking upset over Missouri. The lone loss? Michigan at the not-so-Big House against a pretty good Utah team. It’s going to be a long year for the Wolverines, and you can bet the search for a new head coach is on, as Brady Hoke is struggling both on the field and in the Midwest recruiting battles.
10) The playoff picture is largely unchanged from last week. FSU has the upper hand because of their remaining schedule. The SEC-West, the PAC-12, and Big 12 are all setting themselves up to beat each other up which is going to make the choices for #4 especially difficult. I think we all agree an undefeated FSU ACC Champion is in, so is the SEC Champion regardless of record. An undefeated PAC-12 and/or Big 12 Champion are in as well. So, that’s the easy part. If you’re FSU, Oregon, Oklahoma/Baylor, and someone in the SEC-West (other than Arkansas), win out in you’re in. But, the losses are going to come, and I’ve a couple top teams on upset alert this weekend. Bring on October….
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (3-0) – One ranked team left on your schedule: Notre Dame. Flashback to 1993’s Game of the Century?
#2. Oklahoma (4-0) – Kansas State, Baylor, and Okie State all at home.
#3. Alabama (4-0) – November 15th, v. Mississippi State. The week after @ LSU. If they survive Death Valley, they better respond at home. Remember what happened a few years back after Death Valley? A&M jumped all over Alabama in Tuscaloosa before they even knew what hit them.
#4. Oregon (4-0) – A week off to get the line healthy.
#5. Auburn (3-0) – Louisiana Tech this weekend, then it’s LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Ole Miss, A&M, Georgia; a break with Samford, and then the Iron Bowl. Wow.
#6. Texas A&M (4-0) – Other than Alabama, your schedule may be the most favorable in the SEC-West, if there is such a thing as a favorable SEC-West schedule this year.
#7. UCLA (3-0) – I vowed to keep you in the Top-10 until you lose, which will be sooner rather than later…
#8. Baylor (3-0) – Five more games to get fat before travelling to Norman on November 8th.
#9. Michigan State (2-1) – Let’s face it, despite the woes of the B1G, MSU loss is still more impressive than anyone else’s, and they should run the table.
#10. Arizona State (3-0) – I can’t have BYU or Notre Dame here; so it’s ASU for now.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – More TD’s than incompletions this week, and no INT’s to date this year. But, Amari Cooper from Alabama is officially on your heels.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Oregon – Let’s put the point spread at FSU -2.5.
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama – I’d set it at Alabama -3.5.
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – Though I’m starting to lean a little more towards Oregon v. Alabama.
Week 5 Big Games:
Arkansas @ Texas A&M – Just about every week from now on, the SEC-West is going to feature their own playoff on the road to the SEC Championship and the College Football Playoff. The first big test for A&M within the West, and it’s an Arkansas team that is the only unranked team in the SEC West right now. And it’s going to stay that way. A&M 45 Arkansas 20
Florida State @ N.C. State – A huge, emotional, close win at home for FSU over a rival; followed by a road game against a 4-0 N.C. State team. Don’t laugh. There will be a letdown. Just how big will it be, and can N.C. State capitalize? Ah, no. Florida State firing on all cylinders leading up to their October 18th game against Notre Dame. FSU 58 N.C. State 17.
Week 5 Game of the Week:
UCLA @ Arizona State – Thursday nighter in the desert, and both teams are beat up at QB. Hundley should play, but 5th year starter Taylor Kelly is out for ASU. UCLA hasn’t looked good all year, but has found ways to win all their games. ASU is looking better than expected, but they really haven’t been tested yet. That’ll change in the next six weeks at they take on UCLA, USC, Stanford, Washington, Utah, and Notre Dame (currently a combined 17-2). Without Kelly, ASU is going to be a bit more one dimensional on offense, but D.J. Foster is up to the task (he was the #3 rusher in the country before their bye week last week). That bodes well for ASU if they can keep it close, and they can considering all three of UCLA’s games have been decided by a TD or less. Upset in the desert: ASU 34 UCLA 27.
Until next time…
1) Of the Top-7 teams that played this weekend, only Texas A&M appears flawless, but again, outside of their opening game @ South Carolina, they haven’t played anyone (sorry, Lamar, Rice, and SMU). But that all changes this weekend. A&M eases into SEC-West play against 3-1 Arkansas, and then plays Ole Miss, Mississippi, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU as five of their last seven (and three of those are on the road). I don’t think they’re going to be winning many of those 73-3 or 58-6.
2) Of the other Top-6 teams, Alabama had the easiest time, but that was mainly because of Florida’s porous secondary. Simms nearly set the Alabama single game passing record, and Amari Cooper is now in the Heisman race after 201 yards receiving and three TD’s on only 10 catches. But, Alabama also turned it over four times. That’ll work against Florida, but not against the SEC-West. They’ve got a week to clean things up before they head over to Ole Miss on October 4th.
3) If Oregon is going to win the PAC-12 and contend in the playoff, they’ve got to get healthy on the offensive line. Despite Mariota’s ridiculous numbers (21-25 for 329 yards, 5 TD’s, and 0 INT’s), it’s not good when you’re sacked almost twice as many times as incompletions thrown (seven vs. four). Oregon’s defense has to get better too, especially with some other high powered offenses coming up, specifically UofSuck in two weeks on Thursday night. Good win for Oregon, but you really shouldn’t be in a dog fight into the 4th quarter with Washington State. The Washington State team that hasn’t been good since the Ryan Leaf days, and more recently, the Washington State team that lost to Rutgers and Nevada (but hey, they did beat Portland State).
4) Three turnovers, three missed FG’s. And a loss by six to a Top-5 team. That’s how close Kansas State was to a signature win and getting themselves tossed in the playoff discussion. They held Auburn’s vaunted ground game in check, but their offense and special teams didn’t do them any favors. Still, the loss highlighted a couple key factors for all teams to remember: don’t turn the ball over, and make your FG’s. We’ve seen it time and time again how big FG’s are in college football – remember Oregon against Stanford and Alabama against LSU a couple years ago? Games both decided because the better team missed key FG’s (and not long ones, either). The other thing worth noting about this game: Thursday night games between ranked teams are usually very exciting, and often result in upsets. Next up for Thursday games: UCLA @ ASU this week.
5) Oklahoma’s been getting a lot of love from the various power rankings due to their win @ West Virginia. I think the main reason is that they beat WVU in their place by 12, whereas Alabama only beat them by 10 on a neutral field. I still think that of the Top-5, Oklahoma and Alabama both have yet to be tested (if we’re using West Virginia at the benchmark that should say something). But, what isn’t being talked about it is what role West Virginia may have in deciding the Big 12 and the playoff. They’ve already played both Alabama and Oklahoma close, and they have Baylor and Kansas State at home later this year. The Mountaineers could be playing spoiler in the Big 12.
6) I really don’t want to talk much about FSU. Sure, they beat Clemson (even though Clemson only scored on three of seven trips into the red zone) without their star QB, and now the only one in their path to the playoff and potentially another National Championship is Notre Dame. But, I’m sick of all of the media coverage around this troublemaker Winston. I do applaud FSU for suspending him for the full game rather than just a half, but his rap sheet is getting longer than most rappers, and he’s only a sophomore. I guess one good thing is that he won’t repeat as Heisman winner, and I do hope he grows up a bit, as he is a great talent. But what we’re seeing with Winston is a near direct correlation to what we’re seeing in the NFL headlines these days: many of these players have no accountability because from the time they were 12 years old, their bad behavior has been swept aside and/or covered up because of their athletic talent. And that’s just wrong. These players need to be taught that their off-the-field behavior and accomplishments are what’s going to carry them through life, not the few years they spend between the hedges. Lest they wind up like ex-Phoenix Sun Rex Chapman and countless other broke, criminal, ex-athletes.
7) Mississippi State did something that few do: roll into Death Valley on a Saturday night and beat LSU. But, they almost did what so many others do – allow 4th quarter comeback victories to Les Miles and crew. Despite sucking it up for 3+ quarters, and being down 24 early in the 4th, at the end LSU had the ball and a chance to win. What a wild final few minutes full of, in my opinion, poor coaching decisions. LSU scored with 12+ minutes remaining in the 4th and chose to go for two to cut the lead to 16. The math may add up (cut the lead down to two TD’s and two two-point conversions), but the probabilities do not – there’s no way you’re going to get three TD’s and three two-point conversions in a row. Then, Miss St had a chance to kick a FG to go back up 21, but went for it instead and got stuffed. Then LSU scores again, and now really has to go for two (I guess) and they miss again. Finally, Miss St gives the ball back to LSU and they score quickly and kick the PAT to make it 34-29 and then wind up with ball again in the closing seconds. Had Miles just kicked the PAT’s earlier in the 4th, it’s probably a 34-31 game, and they only need a FG to tie, rather than a Hail Mary to win. That’s why they always say to avoid going for two early.
8) Speaking of Hail Mary’s, in a game no one watched, UofSuck scored 36 points against Cal. In the 4th quarter. Including the game winning TD on a 47-yard heave as time expired to win 49-45. All I gotta say about that is: Thursday October 2nd, UofSuck @ Oregon (revenge game for the Ducks); take the over, I don’t care if it’s at 80+.
9) Finally a good week for the Big 10. They went 12-1 over the weekend, and while many of those wins were against the likes of Eastern Michigan, Massachusetts, Texas State, Southern Illinois; there were victories over Navy, Miami, and of course, Indiana’s shocking upset over Missouri. The lone loss? Michigan at the not-so-Big House against a pretty good Utah team. It’s going to be a long year for the Wolverines, and you can bet the search for a new head coach is on, as Brady Hoke is struggling both on the field and in the Midwest recruiting battles.
10) The playoff picture is largely unchanged from last week. FSU has the upper hand because of their remaining schedule. The SEC-West, the PAC-12, and Big 12 are all setting themselves up to beat each other up which is going to make the choices for #4 especially difficult. I think we all agree an undefeated FSU ACC Champion is in, so is the SEC Champion regardless of record. An undefeated PAC-12 and/or Big 12 Champion are in as well. So, that’s the easy part. If you’re FSU, Oregon, Oklahoma/Baylor, and someone in the SEC-West (other than Arkansas), win out in you’re in. But, the losses are going to come, and I’ve a couple top teams on upset alert this weekend. Bring on October….
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (3-0) – One ranked team left on your schedule: Notre Dame. Flashback to 1993’s Game of the Century?
#2. Oklahoma (4-0) – Kansas State, Baylor, and Okie State all at home.
#3. Alabama (4-0) – November 15th, v. Mississippi State. The week after @ LSU. If they survive Death Valley, they better respond at home. Remember what happened a few years back after Death Valley? A&M jumped all over Alabama in Tuscaloosa before they even knew what hit them.
#4. Oregon (4-0) – A week off to get the line healthy.
#5. Auburn (3-0) – Louisiana Tech this weekend, then it’s LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Ole Miss, A&M, Georgia; a break with Samford, and then the Iron Bowl. Wow.
#6. Texas A&M (4-0) – Other than Alabama, your schedule may be the most favorable in the SEC-West, if there is such a thing as a favorable SEC-West schedule this year.
#7. UCLA (3-0) – I vowed to keep you in the Top-10 until you lose, which will be sooner rather than later…
#8. Baylor (3-0) – Five more games to get fat before travelling to Norman on November 8th.
#9. Michigan State (2-1) – Let’s face it, despite the woes of the B1G, MSU loss is still more impressive than anyone else’s, and they should run the table.
#10. Arizona State (3-0) – I can’t have BYU or Notre Dame here; so it’s ASU for now.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – More TD’s than incompletions this week, and no INT’s to date this year. But, Amari Cooper from Alabama is officially on your heels.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Oregon – Let’s put the point spread at FSU -2.5.
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama – I’d set it at Alabama -3.5.
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – Though I’m starting to lean a little more towards Oregon v. Alabama.
Week 5 Big Games:
Arkansas @ Texas A&M – Just about every week from now on, the SEC-West is going to feature their own playoff on the road to the SEC Championship and the College Football Playoff. The first big test for A&M within the West, and it’s an Arkansas team that is the only unranked team in the SEC West right now. And it’s going to stay that way. A&M 45 Arkansas 20
Florida State @ N.C. State – A huge, emotional, close win at home for FSU over a rival; followed by a road game against a 4-0 N.C. State team. Don’t laugh. There will be a letdown. Just how big will it be, and can N.C. State capitalize? Ah, no. Florida State firing on all cylinders leading up to their October 18th game against Notre Dame. FSU 58 N.C. State 17.
Week 5 Game of the Week:
UCLA @ Arizona State – Thursday nighter in the desert, and both teams are beat up at QB. Hundley should play, but 5th year starter Taylor Kelly is out for ASU. UCLA hasn’t looked good all year, but has found ways to win all their games. ASU is looking better than expected, but they really haven’t been tested yet. That’ll change in the next six weeks at they take on UCLA, USC, Stanford, Washington, Utah, and Notre Dame (currently a combined 17-2). Without Kelly, ASU is going to be a bit more one dimensional on offense, but D.J. Foster is up to the task (he was the #3 rusher in the country before their bye week last week). That bodes well for ASU if they can keep it close, and they can considering all three of UCLA’s games have been decided by a TD or less. Upset in the desert: ASU 34 UCLA 27.
Until next time…
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Week 3 Recap and Week 4 Preview
Three weeks in, and we know this much: there is no SEC fatigue. We’ve heard about it for years, yet the results are still the same. The conference has eight teams ranked in the Top 18. Hell, the SEC West alone has five in the Top-10. I said it in my preseason post; I don’t see a way the SEC does not get two teams in the playoff. But, the biggest reason that scenario won’t happen is the SEC East has already beaten each other up, and the SEC West will get around to that in due time. The only way the SEC gets two teams in is if they wind up with a one loss team that doesn’t make the conference championship (like Alabama last year). I just don’t see a way the committee votes in essentially a rematch of a conference championship. But remember, four out of the last five years, the SEC has had two teams in the final four at the end of the year anyway. I’ve been saying all year it is going to happen, but the more I watch the SEC (particularly the West) play, I see a bunch of great teams, but not one or two incredibly dominant teams like we’ve seen the last several years. So, throw in injuries, schedules, and other factors (these still are 18-20 year old kids we’re talking about) and the more realistic scenario is that the SEC does indeed only get one team in. That’s good news for Oregon and others, as we get into this Top-10 recap:
1) That parity is showing itself throughout college football. Nine of the current Top-25 teams already have one loss. No one has looked really dominant outside of Baylor, and they haven’t played anyone. Teams are already victims of the “what have you done for us lately” mentality from the pollsters. USC beat Stanford, but now is ranked behind them because of their loss @ Boston College. Georgia just lost to South Carolina but is still ranked ahead of them, because of South Carolina’s loss to A&M (which outside of Michigan State’s loss to Oregon, is still the best loss of the season so far). Why? Preseason polls. Thankfully, polls won’t make up any formal part of the committee’s rankings and head-to-head will make up a big part of their decisions (as it should, like when Notre Dame beat FSU in 1993 and finished second behind FSU for that National Championship – yeah, I’m still not over that). Side bar: that was also the year Auburn finished 12-0 and #4 in the polls. Oh how things have changed in 20 years. Can you imagine an SEC team finishing undefeated in not in the Top 2? (Then again, let’s just forget about the pesky NCAA probation that Auburn team was under).
2) Okay – back to 2014…I think the most surprising upset over the weekend was East Carolina over Virginia Tech. Va Tech had just gone in to the Horseshoe and beaten Ohio State and then found themselves down 21-0 to East Carolina in the 1st quarter (and it easily could’ve been 38-0). They just didn’t look like the same team that beat Ohio State the week before.
3) USC on the other hand, showed serious defensive weaknesses last weekend against Stanford. The difference was that Boston College actually scored as they marched up and down the field against USC. Stanford did the same thing, but just didn’t capitalize. I think Stanford’s biggest weakness (as I’ve mentioned many times before) is that they play a style of ball very conducive to close games, and that often costs them against good teams. And I think part of that is coaching. I love Shaw as a coach, but I’m not sold on his ability to manage a game the way a Saban or a Miles or Sumlin do. Let’s look back at Stanford’s losses this year and the last two years. 2014: lost to USC by three, 2013; lost to Utah by six, USC by three, and Michigan State by four; 2012: lost to Washington by four and Notre Dame by seven (in O.T.). All of their losses the last two plus years have been by seven or less. Now, they have won their share of close games against good teams as well (2012: USC by seven, Oregon State by four, Oregon by three, UCLA by three, Wisconsin by six; 2013: Washington by three, Oregon by three, Notre Dame by seven). Keep that in mind as the PAC-12 North continues this year – USC’s defense sucks, Stanford has a history of close games, so it’s Oregon who has a chance to fly away with the PAC-12 North.
4) On to the PAC-12 South, UCLA continues to be the worst 3-0 team this year, but because of the hype surrounding them in the preseason, have continued to stick around in the upper end of the polls. But now they have a week off before a Thursday game with ASU, then a visit from improved Utah, before the huge showdown with Oregon on October 11th. They then play some mediocre PAC-12 teams before closing with USC and Stanford. Last year, Auburn made a season by winning improbable game after improbable game; can UCLA do that this year? Well, their game against ASU may be a bit easier since ASU’s QB is possibly out with a still-to-be-disclosed injury (I watched the replay a dozen times and the only thing I can think is turf toe or stress fracture in the ankle; but the Devil’s coaching staff won’t talk about it at all).
5) So a couple upsets and near upsets leads us to Georgia and South Carolina as the most exciting big game of the day. South Carolina’s defense played better, but their turnovers on offense nearly cost them. In the game that no one seemed to want to win, Georgia seemed to content to play for a game tying FG late (which they of course missed) rather than get Gurley the ball and go for the go ahead score. It was fitting that the game pretty much ended with a 4th and two inch QB sneak resulting in a first down by literally one millimeter (and I actually believe they got that spot right). So, the SEC East is wide open with a combined conference record of 2-4 and Florida sitting in the best position right now (which is of course going to change soon).
6) The long season from the Longhorns got even longer when they couldn’t even execute the coin toss properly against UCLA. UCLA won the toss and deferred to the second half, and Texas turned around and elected to play defense, essentially giving UCLA a free possession, which in turn helped UCLA pull out a victory. That was the second oddest coin toss result I’ve seen; followed by the one where Jerome Bettis (playing for the Steelers) clearly called tails, and the ref said “he called heads; heads is the call.”
7) Despite youth, suspensions, injuries, and academic inquiries, Notre Dame is off to a 3-0 start for the second time in three years (and only the first time they’ve done that in 25 years. Wow). They’ve got a week off before Syracuse, and then Stanford comes to South Bend. The polls have the Irish in the Top 10, but I do not. Golson has been playing well, and defense looks pretty good, but looking at this team and their schedule, 9-3 would be a miracle. That isn’t Top-10 material.
8) Virginia has now beaten a ranked team (Louisville) and should’ve beaten another ranked team (UCLA). Are they going to be the sleeper team in the ACC to make some noise? We’ll know more after they travel to BYU this weekend to take on another underrated team. Looking at BYU’s schedule, it’s hard to see a loss out there (v. Nevada, @ UCF, @ Cal, maybe?).
9) Much like Virginia Tech, Oregon forgot to show up in the first quarter. But, well, it was against Wyoming, not East Carolina, and Oregon isn’t Virginia Tech. When the dust settled, Oregon had blown out the Cowboys, helped in part by a defense that forced three turnovers. If Oregon stays healthy on offense, and if their defense can continue to generate some turnovers, they’ll be just fine. Another cupcake this weekend against Washington State, and then UofSuck comes to Eugene on Thursday October 2nd and the Ducks have revenge on their mind for that one.
10) I keep saying this is the year that the PAC-12 overtakes the SEC as the best overall conference. Then USC loses to unranked Boston College, UofSuck struggles with Nevada, and UCLA barely survives a bad Texas team. The SEC took care of business in non-con play this weekend, with the exception of Tennessee losing to Oklahoma; but even then the Vols looked better against the Sooners than many thought. Oh well, just another year of SEC supremacy, I guess.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (2-0) – Chance for a statement game this weekend against Clemson. You’ve owned the Tigers in Tallahassee the last twenty years.
#2. Oklahoma (3-0) – A solid defense and a pretty good offense. Oh, and Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State all at home.
#3. Alabama (3-0) – Schedule is shaping up nicely; @ Ole Miss after a bye, A&M at home, and @ LSU after a bye.
#4. Oregon (3-0) – Only two currently ranked teams remaining on the schedule (@ UCLA and v. Stanford), and the huge strength of schedule win over Michigan State. Still need to win the PAC-12 to make it to the playoff though.
#5. Auburn (2-0) – Of your remaining schedule, seven are in the Top 20. Good luck with that.
#6. LSU (3-0) – @ Auburn in a few weeks. But first you need to take care of pesky Mississippi State.
#7. UCLA (3-0) – Overrated or underachiever? We’ll know more next Thursday when you take on ASU. Now, get healthy.
#8. Baylor (3-0) – Five more preseason games until November 8, @ Oklahoma. You better keep scoring ~60 a game; style points will matter for you.
#9. Texas A&M (3-0) – Still not sold on A&M, but you’ve a few weeks to solidify your Top-10 ranking before that brutal schedule kicks in. A little hint, out of Ole Miss, Alabama, UL Monroe, Auburn, and Missouri, I wouldn’t have scheduled UL Monroe after a bye.
#10. Arizona State (3-0) – But only by default. I can’t have another SEC team in my Top-10 as the losses are going to come eventually. And I can’t have Notre Dame here; they’re just not a Top-10 team (right now, at least). And, ASU has a bye, so it “bye’s” me another week to figure out #10. And finally with their next three games v. UCLA, @ USC, and v. Stanford we’ll know soon enough is ASU is Top-10 material.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – Over/under on how many times his dive into the endzone will be shown on preview commercials or Heisman updates? I’m thinking 17.5.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Oregon – FSU is one of the few teams that can match Oregon’s speed, and their defense is as good as their offense.
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama – I just want to see this matchup in a game that matters, not some crappy BCS bowl game that Alabama doesn’t care about - if nothing else, for the press blurbs from Stoops and Saban.
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – Until there’s reason to believe otherwise, I’m sticking with this. FSU is a three TD favorite against a ranked Clemson team this weekend, and Alabama is back to that usual 42/10 scoring/defense average.
Week 4 Big Games:
Auburn @ Kansas State – As most are gearing up for their conference schedules, we get a nice Thursday match up on ranked non-con teams in a game that does have some national implications. Auburn’s on the road, and Kansas State doesn’t feel like they’re getting any respect in the Big 12. A win over a Top 5 team could certainly add Kansas State into the discussion. But, Auburn’s too strong, and KSU nearly lost to Iowa State last week. Iowa State! Keep an eye on the forecast though. The rain may be the only thing that can slow down the Tiger. Auburn 45 Kansas State 17
Florida @ Alabama – Florida needed triple O.T. to topple Kentucky, but now they stumble into Tuscaloosa with a hungry Alabama team ready to get rolling into SEC play. Florida’s going to come out excited, but it won’t take long for Alabama to take over and control the game. Just another step in the process for Saban and the Tide. Alabama 38 Florida 13.
Week 4 Game of the Week:
Clemson @ Florida State – Remember that leading up to last year’s Clemson/FSU game, it was Clemson that was higher ranked and had national championship ambitions. Of course, FSU clobbered Clemson and ran away with the Championship. Florida State hasn’t played well yet this year, but Clemson doesn’t have the Boyd to Watkins connection anymore and their defense isn’t stellar. And, FSU has owned Clemson in Tallahassee in recent times: winning 10 out of the last 11. Florida State 31 Clemson 10
Until next time…
1) That parity is showing itself throughout college football. Nine of the current Top-25 teams already have one loss. No one has looked really dominant outside of Baylor, and they haven’t played anyone. Teams are already victims of the “what have you done for us lately” mentality from the pollsters. USC beat Stanford, but now is ranked behind them because of their loss @ Boston College. Georgia just lost to South Carolina but is still ranked ahead of them, because of South Carolina’s loss to A&M (which outside of Michigan State’s loss to Oregon, is still the best loss of the season so far). Why? Preseason polls. Thankfully, polls won’t make up any formal part of the committee’s rankings and head-to-head will make up a big part of their decisions (as it should, like when Notre Dame beat FSU in 1993 and finished second behind FSU for that National Championship – yeah, I’m still not over that). Side bar: that was also the year Auburn finished 12-0 and #4 in the polls. Oh how things have changed in 20 years. Can you imagine an SEC team finishing undefeated in not in the Top 2? (Then again, let’s just forget about the pesky NCAA probation that Auburn team was under).
2) Okay – back to 2014…I think the most surprising upset over the weekend was East Carolina over Virginia Tech. Va Tech had just gone in to the Horseshoe and beaten Ohio State and then found themselves down 21-0 to East Carolina in the 1st quarter (and it easily could’ve been 38-0). They just didn’t look like the same team that beat Ohio State the week before.
3) USC on the other hand, showed serious defensive weaknesses last weekend against Stanford. The difference was that Boston College actually scored as they marched up and down the field against USC. Stanford did the same thing, but just didn’t capitalize. I think Stanford’s biggest weakness (as I’ve mentioned many times before) is that they play a style of ball very conducive to close games, and that often costs them against good teams. And I think part of that is coaching. I love Shaw as a coach, but I’m not sold on his ability to manage a game the way a Saban or a Miles or Sumlin do. Let’s look back at Stanford’s losses this year and the last two years. 2014: lost to USC by three, 2013; lost to Utah by six, USC by three, and Michigan State by four; 2012: lost to Washington by four and Notre Dame by seven (in O.T.). All of their losses the last two plus years have been by seven or less. Now, they have won their share of close games against good teams as well (2012: USC by seven, Oregon State by four, Oregon by three, UCLA by three, Wisconsin by six; 2013: Washington by three, Oregon by three, Notre Dame by seven). Keep that in mind as the PAC-12 North continues this year – USC’s defense sucks, Stanford has a history of close games, so it’s Oregon who has a chance to fly away with the PAC-12 North.
4) On to the PAC-12 South, UCLA continues to be the worst 3-0 team this year, but because of the hype surrounding them in the preseason, have continued to stick around in the upper end of the polls. But now they have a week off before a Thursday game with ASU, then a visit from improved Utah, before the huge showdown with Oregon on October 11th. They then play some mediocre PAC-12 teams before closing with USC and Stanford. Last year, Auburn made a season by winning improbable game after improbable game; can UCLA do that this year? Well, their game against ASU may be a bit easier since ASU’s QB is possibly out with a still-to-be-disclosed injury (I watched the replay a dozen times and the only thing I can think is turf toe or stress fracture in the ankle; but the Devil’s coaching staff won’t talk about it at all).
5) So a couple upsets and near upsets leads us to Georgia and South Carolina as the most exciting big game of the day. South Carolina’s defense played better, but their turnovers on offense nearly cost them. In the game that no one seemed to want to win, Georgia seemed to content to play for a game tying FG late (which they of course missed) rather than get Gurley the ball and go for the go ahead score. It was fitting that the game pretty much ended with a 4th and two inch QB sneak resulting in a first down by literally one millimeter (and I actually believe they got that spot right). So, the SEC East is wide open with a combined conference record of 2-4 and Florida sitting in the best position right now (which is of course going to change soon).
6) The long season from the Longhorns got even longer when they couldn’t even execute the coin toss properly against UCLA. UCLA won the toss and deferred to the second half, and Texas turned around and elected to play defense, essentially giving UCLA a free possession, which in turn helped UCLA pull out a victory. That was the second oddest coin toss result I’ve seen; followed by the one where Jerome Bettis (playing for the Steelers) clearly called tails, and the ref said “he called heads; heads is the call.”
7) Despite youth, suspensions, injuries, and academic inquiries, Notre Dame is off to a 3-0 start for the second time in three years (and only the first time they’ve done that in 25 years. Wow). They’ve got a week off before Syracuse, and then Stanford comes to South Bend. The polls have the Irish in the Top 10, but I do not. Golson has been playing well, and defense looks pretty good, but looking at this team and their schedule, 9-3 would be a miracle. That isn’t Top-10 material.
8) Virginia has now beaten a ranked team (Louisville) and should’ve beaten another ranked team (UCLA). Are they going to be the sleeper team in the ACC to make some noise? We’ll know more after they travel to BYU this weekend to take on another underrated team. Looking at BYU’s schedule, it’s hard to see a loss out there (v. Nevada, @ UCF, @ Cal, maybe?).
9) Much like Virginia Tech, Oregon forgot to show up in the first quarter. But, well, it was against Wyoming, not East Carolina, and Oregon isn’t Virginia Tech. When the dust settled, Oregon had blown out the Cowboys, helped in part by a defense that forced three turnovers. If Oregon stays healthy on offense, and if their defense can continue to generate some turnovers, they’ll be just fine. Another cupcake this weekend against Washington State, and then UofSuck comes to Eugene on Thursday October 2nd and the Ducks have revenge on their mind for that one.
10) I keep saying this is the year that the PAC-12 overtakes the SEC as the best overall conference. Then USC loses to unranked Boston College, UofSuck struggles with Nevada, and UCLA barely survives a bad Texas team. The SEC took care of business in non-con play this weekend, with the exception of Tennessee losing to Oklahoma; but even then the Vols looked better against the Sooners than many thought. Oh well, just another year of SEC supremacy, I guess.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (2-0) – Chance for a statement game this weekend against Clemson. You’ve owned the Tigers in Tallahassee the last twenty years.
#2. Oklahoma (3-0) – A solid defense and a pretty good offense. Oh, and Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State all at home.
#3. Alabama (3-0) – Schedule is shaping up nicely; @ Ole Miss after a bye, A&M at home, and @ LSU after a bye.
#4. Oregon (3-0) – Only two currently ranked teams remaining on the schedule (@ UCLA and v. Stanford), and the huge strength of schedule win over Michigan State. Still need to win the PAC-12 to make it to the playoff though.
#5. Auburn (2-0) – Of your remaining schedule, seven are in the Top 20. Good luck with that.
#6. LSU (3-0) – @ Auburn in a few weeks. But first you need to take care of pesky Mississippi State.
#7. UCLA (3-0) – Overrated or underachiever? We’ll know more next Thursday when you take on ASU. Now, get healthy.
#8. Baylor (3-0) – Five more preseason games until November 8, @ Oklahoma. You better keep scoring ~60 a game; style points will matter for you.
#9. Texas A&M (3-0) – Still not sold on A&M, but you’ve a few weeks to solidify your Top-10 ranking before that brutal schedule kicks in. A little hint, out of Ole Miss, Alabama, UL Monroe, Auburn, and Missouri, I wouldn’t have scheduled UL Monroe after a bye.
#10. Arizona State (3-0) – But only by default. I can’t have another SEC team in my Top-10 as the losses are going to come eventually. And I can’t have Notre Dame here; they’re just not a Top-10 team (right now, at least). And, ASU has a bye, so it “bye’s” me another week to figure out #10. And finally with their next three games v. UCLA, @ USC, and v. Stanford we’ll know soon enough is ASU is Top-10 material.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – Over/under on how many times his dive into the endzone will be shown on preview commercials or Heisman updates? I’m thinking 17.5.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Oregon – FSU is one of the few teams that can match Oregon’s speed, and their defense is as good as their offense.
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama – I just want to see this matchup in a game that matters, not some crappy BCS bowl game that Alabama doesn’t care about - if nothing else, for the press blurbs from Stoops and Saban.
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – Until there’s reason to believe otherwise, I’m sticking with this. FSU is a three TD favorite against a ranked Clemson team this weekend, and Alabama is back to that usual 42/10 scoring/defense average.
Week 4 Big Games:
Auburn @ Kansas State – As most are gearing up for their conference schedules, we get a nice Thursday match up on ranked non-con teams in a game that does have some national implications. Auburn’s on the road, and Kansas State doesn’t feel like they’re getting any respect in the Big 12. A win over a Top 5 team could certainly add Kansas State into the discussion. But, Auburn’s too strong, and KSU nearly lost to Iowa State last week. Iowa State! Keep an eye on the forecast though. The rain may be the only thing that can slow down the Tiger. Auburn 45 Kansas State 17
Florida @ Alabama – Florida needed triple O.T. to topple Kentucky, but now they stumble into Tuscaloosa with a hungry Alabama team ready to get rolling into SEC play. Florida’s going to come out excited, but it won’t take long for Alabama to take over and control the game. Just another step in the process for Saban and the Tide. Alabama 38 Florida 13.
Week 4 Game of the Week:
Clemson @ Florida State – Remember that leading up to last year’s Clemson/FSU game, it was Clemson that was higher ranked and had national championship ambitions. Of course, FSU clobbered Clemson and ran away with the Championship. Florida State hasn’t played well yet this year, but Clemson doesn’t have the Boyd to Watkins connection anymore and their defense isn’t stellar. And, FSU has owned Clemson in Tallahassee in recent times: winning 10 out of the last 11. Florida State 31 Clemson 10
Until next time…
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)