Conference changes, coaching changes, and corruption allegations (well, corruption facts, I guess) sadly dominated the college football off-season this spring and summer. What hasn’t changed is the SEC is on top of the college football world once again. In fact, the SEC-West could probably compete rather well in the NFC-North.
I actually thought about not writing the Autumn Wind this year to see if I could be the curse that brought the SEC back to reality. After all, the SEC has won the BCS title in every year of the Autumn Wind’s existence. Actually, life has just been too darn busy. But alas, the fans have spoken, and the Autumn Wind is back!!!
I’ll this edition, I’ll list the Top-10 things to watch for this year; I’ll offer up my pre-season games of the week throughout the season; and my pre-season Top-10, why they’ll win it, and why they won’t. Of course BCS title and Heisman trophy predictions will follow, and in typical Wind fashion, will change weekly. Last year, I called the Nevada over Boise State upset from the beginning (before inexplicably backing out the week of!), and I’ve got another guaranteed upset special.
Top-10 Things to Watch for This Season
1) This is the first year in a long time in which there are so many scheduled match-ups of AP preseason Top-10 teams, especially non-con games with LSU/Oregon & Oklahoma/Florida State, coupled with Oklahoma State/Texas A&M, Nebraska/Wisconsin (10 v. 11, close enough), Texas A&M/Oklahoma, LSU/Alabama, Oregon/Stanford, Oklahoma/Oklahoma State.
2) Above (#1) is just something to watch for as there are several teams not in the AP preseason Top-10 that are lurking. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an undefeated Boise State and Va. Tech, and possibly Notre Dame and Texas A&M. Now, that will once again bring up the argument, does someone like LSU (with 7 AP Top-10 teams on the schedule) rank out higher than Va. Tech (with zero Top-10 teams on the schedule)? Let’s just get to the 16-team, 4 mega-conferences and get to a playoff system (to be outlined as the Autumn Wind moves on this year).
3) Speaking of schedules, here’s my huge upset of the year. Alabama @ Mississippi State. Don’t laugh, it’s the week after a huge game versus LSU, and the week before a cupcake against Georgia Southern at home. Look for a big let down from Alabama on November 12th. And, back to schedules, boy did Tulsa get unlucky this year. Three out of their first four games are @ Oklahoma, v. Oklahoma State, and @ Boise State. Oops.
4) Keep an eye on some long-time QB’s this year to break some records. Both Kellen Moore (Boise State) and Case Keenum (Houston) are back for their 14th season (or at least it seems like that) and should be putting up all sorts of crazy numbers.
5) The SEC-West is wickedly good. Defending National Champion Auburn may finish last in this sub-conference. Why does the Big East get an automatic bid again? I guarantee the 2nd-4th place team in this sub-conference would destroy the Big East champ on a neutral field.
6) Nebraska is picked by most to win the Big “10” this year. I find that strange. Their offense struggled toward the end of the year last year, and there’s something difficult about heading to new places to play. Do you really think Nebraska is going to come out strong in their first ever conference meetings against Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State, Michigan, and Iowa?
7) I’m excited to see the Big “10” and PAC-12 get championship games. I truly feel both conferences have been hurt in past years because they lacked a championship game. Mainly by the Big-12. Certainly not the SEC. But I’ve seen too many Big-12 teams benefit from a conference championship game while the Big-10 and PAC-10 (at the time) just sat back and watched their top teams drop in the polls in the last couple of weeks. I think this is a good thing for college football, and again, I’ll be unleashing my 4-megaconference plan soon!
8) Last year I declared it the year of the mid-majors as I felt the major conferences were a little bit down overall, and the WAC, Mountain West, and other “small” conferences had some great teams and great athletes. Well, this year, with the exception of Boise (which will be joining the PAC-16 eventually – oops, did I give that away?), the majors will shine this year (well, with the exception of the Big East). The SEC is great as always, the Big “10” is 8 deep (which really isn’t saying anything since they have 12 teams), the Big “12” is really strong at the top with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M (and look for Texas to be stronger than predicted), the PAC-12 will surprise (no surprise from Oregon and Stanford, but look out for UCLA, Arizona State, and USC), and while the ACC is a two team race (Florida State and Va. Tech), they will be really competitive within the conference (with the exception of Miami that may not even have a team)
9) The Heisman race is wide open – I think there’s well over a dozen candidates with a legitimate shot, and probably a handful or more that I don’t even have on the radar. Though, I think it comes down to Andrew Luck, LaMichael James, and Landry Jones.
10) And finally, a quick note on math; if the Big-10 has twelve teams, and the Big-12 has 10 teams, why is the PAC-12 (with 12 teams) the only conference smart enough to change their name? And don’t give me that “tradition” crap. And the 12-PAC does have a nice, bubbly, ring to it, doesn’t it?
Pre-Season Predicted Games of the Week
Week 1 – Oregon v. LSU: Incredibly exciting week 1 matchup, with BCS Title implications on the line in early September (though both teams will be able to recover from a loss)
Week 2 – Alabama @ Penn State: An Alabama loss hurts more here than what a win gains them. The Tide need this game to keep in the National Title picture. Penn State needs this game to send out JoePA on a high note. (Yes, he’s retiring after this year)
Week 3 – Oklahoma @ Florida State: When they played last year, I noted it, but didn’t give it much thought; especially when it ended in an Oklahoma route. The result may be different this year in Tallahassee in a match-up of Top-10 teams.
Week 4 – Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M: Both of these teams are likely to give Oklahoma fits, and either could wind up winning the Big-12 outright
Week 5 – Nebraska @ Wisconsin: Big Red @ Big Red! I’m excited for Nebraska’s first Big-10 trip to Camp Randall.
Week 6 – Oklahoma @ Texas: Texas is down, but this still is the Red River Shootout!
Week 7 – Arizona State @ Oregon: A preview of the inaugural PAC-12 title. Erickson has been saying for the last three years that this is the year for Devils.
Week 8 – Tennessee @ Alabama: just for you Greg and Gene; 3rd Saturday of something or other...
Week 9 – Georgia v. Florida: Both teams are predicted to be a little down this year; but wouldn’t it be interesting if this ends up to be the first ever World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party with both teams unbeaten at the time?
Week 10 – LSU @ Alabama: Birth in the SEC Championship on the line here.
Week 11 – Oregon @ Stanford: Remember how quickly Stanford jumped on Oregon in Eugene last year? Of course your don’t since PAC-10 (now 12) games aren’t shown around the country. Anyway, this was one of the best games I watched last year.
Week 12 – Nebraska @ Michigan: Can we bring back Keith Jackson for this one? “Oh, we got a good one here in the Big House; the Cornhuskers from Nebraska take on the Wolverines from Michigan.”
Week 13 – Alabama @ Auburn: The Iron Bowl will once again have Conference and National Championship implications, with Auburn looking to upset this time.
Week 14 – Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State: Even though the Big “12” no longer has a Championship Game, this is the conference title game. I wonder if we can get Dr. Pepper to sponsor this one?
The Pre-Season Top-10
#1 Alabama (0-0) – Nearly everyone is back on both sides of the ball, and I can see a few games where the Tide may not allow their opponent past the 50-yard line, and four or five shut-outs aren’t out of the question with how powerful this defense will be this year. But, look at the schedule? @ Penn State; v. Arkansas followed by @ Florida; v. LSU followed by @ Mississippi; and ending the regular season @ Auburn. Brutal schedule in the SEC-West, as usual.
#2 Oklahoma (0-0) – The Sooners will likely average ~50/game and control the Big-12 through the air. But - their schedule is also brutal (@Florida State, v. Texas A&M, and @ Oklahoma State), and without a Big-12 title game, a one-loss team from this conference won’t get in…
#3 Oregon (0-0) – Most of the Duck’s play makers are back, though they’ve had to re-load on the offensive line. If they can squeak (or quack) by LSU in week 1, they should remain undefeated until they close with @ Stanford, v. USC, and v. Oregon State (in the always entertaining Civil War), followed by the first PAC-12 Championship game.
#4 Boise State (0-0) – Kellen Moore is back for his 12th season (seriously, how long has he been at Boise?) and the Broncos return 14 starters (seriously, how is Boise continuing to re-load year after year?). If Boise beats Georgia in the dome in week 1, they should coast to yet another undefeated season. But – circle November 19th when they travel to dangerous San Diego State (yes, I’m serious).
#5 LSU (0-0) – Depth, talent, and experience should produce a Tiger squad that is better than last year’s surprising 11-2 team. But, look at this schedule: 7 AP pre-season Top-25 games; including v. Oregon and @ West Virginia BEFORE the brutal SEC-West schedule. Couple that with the off-season (and likely soon-to-be on-season) criminal distractions, and I wouldn’t be surprised if LSU ends up 7-5. Then again, 11-1 is also a possibility.
#6 Florida State (0-0) – Bobby who? This is Jimbo’s team now, and the Seminoles look to build upon last’s years finish (losing the crazy shootout in the ACC title, and handling SEC-East champ South Carolina in the Chick-fil-A bowl). The lead the nation in sacks last year with 48, they return nearly everyone on defense, and they’re schedule is relatively easy, sans Oklahoma coming to Tallahassee. But, they haven’t won an ACC title or been to a BCS game sine 2005, and remember that even when Bowden’s teams were riding high, there was always a wide-left towards the end of the season (which this year is in the Swamp. Just sayin’).
#7 Virginia Tech (0-0) – Tyrod Taylor is gone, but four seniors are back on the offense line, the back 7 on defense are as good as any in the nation, and Va. Tech plays no one; and I mean no one. But, the Hookies will coast through the regular season at 12-0, and then lose to Florida State in the ACC-title game, and sorry, but a 1-loss Hookie team will not finish in the Top-2.
#8 Oklahoma State (0-0) – This could finally be the year for the Cowboys. They return 17 starters from an 11-2 team (and remember, in their two loses they scored 41 points in each!), will have an explosive offensive, and are fortunate enough to get Oklahoma at home again this year due to scheduling changes with the new Big-12. But, they have huge holes the front seven on defense, and this is the team that gave up 38 to Troy, 35 to A&M, 51 to Nebraska, 28 to Baylor, and 47 to Oklahoma (I think all of it in the 4th quarter) last year. Add a shaky defense to the fact that Okie State just never seems to be able to beat the Sooners when they need to, and it’s looking like another ~10-2 season for the Cowboys.
#9 Nebraska (0-0) – Most pundits have Nebraska winning the Big-10 in their first season, and their defense should be capable of holding teams to under 17/game. Their schedule is relatively easy, with trips to Camp Randall and the Big House (Wisconsin and Michigan) appear to be the biggest struggles. But, this is a younger Nebraska team that barely won @ Iowa State last year, couldn’t score @ Texas A&M, and couldn’t do anything against Washington in the Holiday Bowl. Plus, this will be Nebraska’s first time in a long time playing a lot of these Big-10 teams, which will make road games even more challenging. I still predict Nebraska to win the whatever sub-conference they’re in, in the Big-10, which is really the Big-12. (For some reason, this reminds me of the famous scene in “Three Amigos” with Lucky Day talking about how all of us has an El Guapo, and that we have a chance to beat our own El Guapo which also happen to be the real El Guapo – that’s how I see the Big “10”.)
#10 Notre Dame (0-0) – 2nd year coaches have done extremely well in recent memory in college football, and Brian Kelly has always done well in his 2nd year. Notre Dame returns an incredible 19 starters; four on the offensive line, all three WR and TE, and much of the front seven on defense. Couple that with a relatively easy schedule (the Irish should be favored in every game except @ Stanford to end the season), and a BCS game isn’t out of the question for the Irish. But, I haven’t had my favorite team win a title since the 2008 Boston Celtics, and before that it was the 1991 Twins. I’m due, but it won’t happen because somewhere in the relatively weak gauntlet of Michigan, Michigan State, Air Force, Navy, and USC, there will be a couple losses. I hope I’m wrong. And I hope I’m in Notre Dame Stadium for the Air Force game on October 8th!
Heisman Watch:
Andrew Luck, Stanford – Luck’s luck is on his side, based on a bunch of factors – incredible numbers from last year, a team that’s predicted to finish really high in the standings, possibly the best QB in the country suitable for the next level, and the fact that he turned down a lot of money to return to a Stanford team that has a new head coach.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Alabama v. Oklahoma – Although I truly don’t see both teams finishing #1/#2, as far as pre-season goes; these are the two “best” teams.
Week 1 Big Games:
South Florida @ Notre Dame – Please, Notre Dame, if you’re gonna blow it in what looks to be a promising season, at least win the first one? Nah, Notre Dame gets it done in this one (38-17), but I am concerned about the upcoming games against the Michigan schools. Well, at least Michigan. Sparty? Not so much, as long as the refs follow long standing rules about calling penalties for not snapping the ball before the game clock expires. (Yes, still bitter)
Boise State @ Georgia – Boise continues to challenge anyone, anywhere. Opened with Oregon two years ago, Va. Tech last year, and now @ Georgia this year. Too bad the Mountain West Conference is way down compared to the last couple of years. That will hurt Boise in the long run, if they survive this one. And I think they will. The wind coming out of the proverbial SEC sails will be stronger than that of Hurricane Irene if (when?) Boise wins this one 31 to 24.
Week 1 Game of the Week:
Oregon v. LSU – I’m less concerned about the point spread and more concerned about the over/under on 4th down attempts and 2-point conversion attempts! Look for a sloppy, yet fast paced game won by Oregon after Les Miles makes some bizarre decisions in the 4th quarter...Oregon 36 LSU 27
Until next time…
