Baylor falters and there was much cheering in Ohio. But, the Buckeyes still need to beat the teams from Michigan and hope for some help. Florida may now only be the sixth best team in state of Florida, and we’ve got our match-ups set for the Big 10 and PAC-12 Championship games. Fresno and Northern Illinois are still trying to crash the party, and several one loss teams are still saying “don’t forget about us!” It’s down to the final couple weeks!
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 13 Top-10 recap:
1. Yet another shutout for Alabama (okay, it was only Chattanooga, but still) and yet another Tide defense leading the league is fewest points allowed at just under 10. Heck, take out the A&M game earlier in the season and Alabama’s only giving up six points a game. You’re just not going to lose with a defense like that. But, I still have FSU ranked ahead of them, as they won’t hold FSU to six, or 10, or maybe even 42. Though, Saban preps for the big one like no other, and if Alabama wants to three-peat, they have three big ones in a row: Iron Bowl, SEC Championship, and BCS Championship.
2. Duke came from behind to beat Wake Forest and now has to beat North Carolina (even Dick Vitale couldn’t have scripted this better) to get to 10 wins and to win the ACC-Coastal.
3. Arizona State’s defense was so tired at the end of the UCLA game that they couldn’t get down in their stance, rush the QB, or even fake an injury to slow down the Bruin offense. But, they did make a couple key plays on back-to-back drives and the Sun Devils clinch that PAC-12 South. If they beat UofSuck this weekend, they’ll host their rematch against Stanford; if not, it’s back to the Farm.
4. So Florida last at home to Georgia Southern. It was their first loss ever to an FCS team, and the Gators have now lost six straight (after being ranked in many peoples' pre-season Top-10). They’re only 1-2 against non-conference teams (soon to be 1-3 when FSU tries to hang a 100 on them) and only 3-5 against the SEC (and that’s because Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas are a combined 1-20 in SEC play; so much for SEC top-to-bottom dominance, eh?). But, check out these stats: Georgia Southern turned it over twice, missed two extra points, completed zero passes (that’s right, zero!), and still won at the Swamp. At least the Gators get to close with FSU who’s still looking for style points. Gulp.
5. After watching Oregon get humiliated by UofSuck, I came to the realization that the Ducks are like a young LeBron James. They have everything needed to win-it-all, except something is missing. Football is easy when you’re scoring 5+ points and blowing people out, but faced with a little adversity and someone willing to hit you in the jaw and Oregon’s crumbled. Whether it’s been against Stanford the last two years, or Auburn in the Championship three years ago, Oregon hasn’t been able to win the games they need to win to put them over the top. But, they’re not a one-shot wonder either. They’ve built a great program, and I do think in the next couple of years they’re going to figure it out.
6. Eight of the 19 Top-25 teams that played this weekend scored 47 or more, and then toss in some unranked teams that went for 58, 80, 45, 49, 59, and 69, and it’s clear that there’s no shortage of offensive output out there. Yet, the Top 3 teams in the country are #1, #2, and #8 in fewest points allowed. Offenses are exciting, but defenses still win championships.
7. Notre Dame’s Jekyll and Hyde season continues. With nothing left to play for (they’re headed to the New Era Pinstripe Bowl regardless), they put together maybe their best effort of the season by beating a pretty good BYU team. Notre Dame has beaten Michigan State and Arizona State (teams that will be representing their divisions in their Conference Championships), a really good USC team (their only loss since they fired Kiffen), and close with Stanford (who will likely win the PAC-12). I don’t think their chances of beating Stanford are good, but it makes you wonder about this team with its quality wins coupled with losses to Pitt and Michigan; and near losses to Navy and Purdue. And of course they got blown out by Oklahoma, who blew out Texas, who lost to the BYU team that Notre Dame just beat.
8. LSU improved to 2-0 against A&M since they joined the SEC, and this stat tells it all: time of possession – LSU: 40:19 A&M 19:41. It’s pretty easy to beat A&M when they’re offense isn’t on the field. I’m predicting a big shake-up in A&M in the offseason with Manziel going the NFL and Sumlin going to USC. But, hey, it was fun while it lasted.
9. November – where spread offenses go to die. We saw it this weekend with Baylor and Oregon looking downright crappy on offense. I don’t know if it’s the long, grueling season; more prep time for defensive coordinators; or back loaded schedules; but November hasn’t been kind to these types of offenses.
10. There are many other rivalry games that aren’t going to be highlighted coming up this weekend but still are worth a mention: The Apple Cup, the Civil War, the Territorial Cup, The Game, The Golden Boot, Battle for the Sunshine State, Clean Ole Fashioned Hate, and The Egg Bowl (and probably a few that I missed). It’s one of my favorite weekends of the year because quite often, the teams that shouldn’t win wind up winning and messing up the end of the season for their rival. I’m sure we’ll see a bunch of upsets this week as well.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Florida State (11-0) – How much longer can the cops drag out their investigation? Oh, probably ‘till mid-January.
#2 Alabama (11-0) – Better record now than the previous two years of your Championship run.
#3 Ohio State (11-0) – Haven’t lost in two years and still no love.
#4 Clemson (10-1) – Need to break the losing streak to South Carolina to get a BCS bid.
#5 Auburn (10-1) – Still an outside chance at the BCS Championship; but very realistic. Beat ‘Bama and A&M/South Carolina, Clemson loses to South Carolina, and Ohio State loses to Michigan or Michigan State, and you’re in!
#6 Oklahoma State (10-1) – It took awhile, but I think my pick to win the Big-12 is finally going to pay off.
#7 Missouri (10-1) – Not as clean of a road as Auburn, but one loss SEC teams have precedent.
#8 Baylor (9-1) – Oops.
#9 South Carolina (9-2) – How the hell did you lose to Tennessee?
#10 Fresno State (10-0) – Rematch with Boise State in the MVC Championship approacheth. Take the over.
Rising Fast:
Arizona State – Clinches the PAC-12 South and gets a rematch with Stanford; at home, if they can beat UofSuck. Of course they should, which, given the history of this series, means they won’t.
Falling Faster:
Oregon – You would’ve though the Ducks would’ve been used to playing in the rain; figuratively and literally.
Heisman Watch:
A.J. McCarron, Alabama – The National writers are starting to lean this way as well.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Alabama v. Florida State – The game every one wants to see. I’m still thinking FSU -6.5.
Week 14 Big Games:
Texas A&M @ Missouri – Missouri wins the SEC-East with a win, or Texas A&M can play spoiler and vault South Carolina into the SEC Championship. Who predicted that at the beginning of the year? A&M has been rattled and beaten all year by good teams, and Missouri is a good team. Look for their winning ways to continue: 38 to 31.
Clemson @ South Carolina – This is the first Top-10 match-up in 111 meetings between these longtime rivals. Lots of people seem to be picking South Carolina in this one. They’ve dominated the series as of late winning four straight, but let’s take a closer look at South Carolina. They lost to Tennessee (UT’s only SEC win), only beat Florida by five and Kentucky by 7; and needed a Willis Reed type miracle from Conner Shaw to beat Missouri in overtime. But, Clemson’s resume isn’t much better: they beat Georgia to open the season and got clobbered by Florida State. That’s about it. Still, you know Clemson (specifically Boyd/Watkins) aren’t going to want to end their careers without a win against South Carolina. This one will be back-and-forth, and I think in many ways will mimic the early Clemson/Georgia game. But I like Clemson in the end: 44 to 38.
Notre Dame @ Stanford – Stanford has won three of four in this series, and Stanford fans will argue that they should’ve won last year. The huge goal-line stand in the driving rain preserved the victory for the Irish and sent them to the National Championship to get destroyed by ‘Bama. This is pretty much the same Stanford team, but a much different Notre Dame team: no T’eo, no Golson, no Eiffert, and now no Louis Nix who is out with a knee injury. Still, Stanford tends to play teams close, as does Notre Dame. Look for Notre Dame to keep this competitive, but that pro-style running game from Stanford will wear them down in the end. Stanford 27 Notre Dame 20.
Week 14 Game of the Week:
Alabama @ Auburn – Let’s not forget the winner of the Iron Bowl has also won the National Championship the last four years, so there’s much more than just the SEC-West on the line. This is only the second Iron Bowl in which both teams are ranked in the Top-5 (Alabama beat Auburn in 1971). Alabama has the experience and Auburn has the energy. It’s fitting of a match-up between the elephant and the tiger. Even during Auburn’s title run in 2010, Alabama dominated this game; well, for the first half, at least; before Auburn stormed back to win 28-27 and go on to win the Championship. I usually pick experience and defense in these types of match-ups, which would clearly favor Alabama. Vegas agrees, with ‘Bama as a 10.5 point favorite. But, check this out: Saban is 0-5 against Auburn teams that finish the season with nine or more wins (and they already have 10 wins). This one goes down to the wire, and if a bounce or two goes Auburn’s way, they pull off the upset. But alas, the bounces have gone ‘Bama’s way for nearly three years, so I can’t bet against that: Alabama 34 Auburn 31.
Until next time…
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Week 12 Recap and Week 13 Preview
This weekend gave us the game of the year so far. It was back and forth. One team jumped to a big lead, the other came storming back. And there was a miraculous play on fourth down, and then they finally eeked out a victory. Of course I’m talking about UCF and Temple. Okay, the script in the Georgia/Auburn game played out pretty much the same, but more on that later. The BCS clears up a bit with Stanford losing to USC (how many times have I said that Stanford’s biggest problem is that it’s system is designed for close games) and Ohio State struggling to put Illinois away. It’s still ‘Bama and FSU in 1a/1b, but I’ve got Baylor at #3 now.
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 12 Top-10 recap:
1. Baylor does it again – falls behind early in the first, then puts it in overdrive and drops 60 on someone. Yet the excuses are still out there. I was guilty of the “well they haven’t played anyone yet.” And now there’s the “well, Texas Tech was overrated and has lost four straight.” That’s fine and dandy, but the bottom line is Baylor is a very solid team top to bottom, and they will continue to get the spotlight with upcoming games @ Oklahoma State this weekend and v. Texas on December. Win out, and they’re in the Fiesta Bowl at worst. They’re praying for Auburn or South Carolina (sorry Missouri) to beat Alabama or FSU to lose to, um, Duke in the ACC Championship. Ohio State is going to slowly slide as the Big-10’s competition just isn’t as tough as the other major conferences (except the AAC of course).
2. During their usual post-LSU let down, ‘Bama looked sluggish at time, but once again walked away with a victory in which they held yet another opponent to less than 10. They keep saying this team has holes, but they keep winning in convincing fashion. Now they get a tune up against Chattanooga before the November 30th Iron Bowl, possibly the most anticipated match-up in this series in 20 years.
3. I said last week that despite how much I love Stanford, they weren’t deserving of a #4 BCS ranking and a mere upset or two away from a title match-up. I didn’t really need USC to prove my point, but they did. With loses against Utah and USC, how do you think Stanford would fare against FSU, Alabama, or Baylor? They’d interestingly enough probably have a better time with FSU and Baylor than Alabama, given their track record of success against spread teams versus grind it out teams. But, the BCS still loves Stanford, having them ranked the highest out of two loss teams.
4. Here we are approaching week 13, and South Carolina is still in the hunt in the SEC-East. They need a Missouri loss to either Ole Miss (not likely) or A&M (likely, but either way, take the over) to get a chance at Alabama/Auburn, and they also have a chance to show that Clemson isn’t the best one-loss team (a review of Clemson’s resume shows that a close win over Georgia isn’t that impressive now, and a blow-out against FSU with really nothing else to show for themselves implies trouble in the in-state rivalry to happen on November 30th).
5. Michigan State scored 41 against the Blackshirts from Nebraska. To put that in perspective, the only other times the Spartans have scored more than 30 were against Indiana (117th scoring defense), Illinois (111th scoring defense), and Youngstown State from the FCS. Pelini’s back on the hot seat.
6. These are words you don’t hear every day in November: Duke controls it’s own destiny in the ACC-Coastal.
7. Stanford’s loss to USC opened the door for Oregon to not only get back into the PAC-12 race, but also the National Championship race. But they’ll need a lot of help for that. Then again, remember a few years ago when LSU went from something like #7 to #2 in the second to last week of the year? With Alabama, Ohio State, Baylor, and Clemson having really tough match-ups left, this isn’t out of the question.
8. Oklahoma State dispatched Texas and pretty much knocked the Longhorns out of the Big-12 picture. Big-12 title is on the line (again) this weekend when Oklahoma State welcomes in Baylor.
9. As much as I like Arizona State, Wisconsin really should be 9-1 and likely in the top 10-15 in the BCS and playing for an at-large game. Then again, Wisconsin didn’t handle that kneel down correctly in Tempe in Week 3, so they do have some blame. Still, the Badgers’ two losses are by 9 points to the #3 and #17 teams in the BCS, so that should put them in the discussion for best two loss team in the country. Certainly, best two loss team that no one is talking about.
10. The entire game, and specifically the 4th quarter, of Georgia/Auburn was incredible. We’ve all seen the highlights, but one thing I haven’t seen much talk of is that Murray was stopped short of the goal line on their 4th down. Sure, replay upheld the call, mainly because there wasn’t indisputable evidence to overturn the call on the field. But I want to know where the opposite camera angle was. We only had two, from one side of the goal line and from the back. I want to see the opposite angle as I believe he was inches short of the goal line. Regardless, yet another example of defense backs trying to get a highlight interception when the play on 4th down needs to be to knock it down! After the deflection, that ball seemed to be in the air forever. I would’ve loved to have been there in person to witness that finish. College football at it’s finest!
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Florida State (10-0) – Off-the-field distractions don’t seem to be distracting the on-the-field play.
#2 Alabama (10-0) – Boring, yet incredibly efficient and may be the most complete Tide team of this dynasty.
#3 Baylor (9-0) – I’m a believer!
#4 Ohio State (10-0) – It’s not good when you need to run up the score against Illinois, and then only win by 25.
#5 Clemson (9-1) – Best one loss team. I think.
#6 Oregon (9-1) – Back in the picture.
#7 Auburn (10-1) – Iron Bowl. But we still have to wait a week.
#8 Oklahoma State (9-1) – Defacto Big-12 Championship this weekend. Again.
#9 Missouri (9-1) – Uh, we’re still here!!
#10 Fresno State (9-0) – Uh, so are we!
Rising Fast:
Duke – 8-2 and in control in the ACC-Coastal. And we’re talking basketball, not football.
Falling Faster:
Texas – They’ve still got a chance in the Big-12 despite the worst home loss in the Mack Brown era, and suffering their 8th straight home loss to ranked teams. Texas football, that ain’t.
Heisman Watch:
A.J. McCarron, Alabama – Sure, Winston at FSU may have better numbers and more flash, but nothing says “outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity” like sexual assault allegations that aren’t going away.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Alabama v. Florida State – I set the line at FSU -6.5 and O/U 64.
Week 13 Big Games:
Texas A&M @ LSU – The “don’t forget about us” match-up in the SEC-West. Both has aspirations for both the SEC Title and the BCS Title. Now they’re just playing for respect. LSU really shut down Johnny Football and Co. in the 2nd half last year, so it’s revenge time for A&M against an underachieving LSU team that has had flashes of brilliance. A&M 41 LSU 30.
Wisconsin @ Minnesota – A match-up of 8-2 teams in the Midwestern border battle. That’s right, Minnesota is 8-2. The Gophers have been winning close games, and while it’s no surprise that Wisconsin is rushing for over 300 yards a game, it is a bit of a surprise that Wisconsin has held six of their opponents to their lowest point total of the season. A strong rushing game and a solid defense will cause problems for Minnesota. No close game here: Wisconsin 45 Minnesota 13.
ASU @ UCLA – PAC-12 South more or less on the line in this one. ASU never plays well in So. Cal, but their defense is peaking. UCLA has struggled recently, though who doesn’t struggle against Oregon and Stanford? Overall these teams are pretty evenly matched, but weather may play a factor in this one, and if so, you gotta go with the better defense team which is ASU. Let’s take ASU in a squeaker: 31-30.
Missouri @ Ole Miss – Missouri’s starting QB is back, but their facing a Rebels team that is underrated (they’re only three loses were to A&M and Auburn by a combined 11 points, and they only gave up 25 to Alabama). The problem is that Missouri is more underrated and has shocked everyone this year, not only in the SEC but in the nation. Mizzou wins and keeps their SEC-East hopes alive: 33 to 24.
Week 13 Game of the Week:
Baylor @ Oklahoma State – Big-12 Championship game v3.0 (I think. It’s been hard to keep track). Baylor keeps impressing me, but Oklahoma State is at home and has a bit more experience. But, that loss to West Virginia is looking worse and worse, and despite picking OSU to win the Big-12, I think the tides are turning. Baylor’s offense is too explosive, and once they get the lead, they pin their ears back on defense and get to the QB. Baylor keeps things interesting the chase for the BCS: 59 to 45.
Until next time…
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 12 Top-10 recap:
1. Baylor does it again – falls behind early in the first, then puts it in overdrive and drops 60 on someone. Yet the excuses are still out there. I was guilty of the “well they haven’t played anyone yet.” And now there’s the “well, Texas Tech was overrated and has lost four straight.” That’s fine and dandy, but the bottom line is Baylor is a very solid team top to bottom, and they will continue to get the spotlight with upcoming games @ Oklahoma State this weekend and v. Texas on December. Win out, and they’re in the Fiesta Bowl at worst. They’re praying for Auburn or South Carolina (sorry Missouri) to beat Alabama or FSU to lose to, um, Duke in the ACC Championship. Ohio State is going to slowly slide as the Big-10’s competition just isn’t as tough as the other major conferences (except the AAC of course).
2. During their usual post-LSU let down, ‘Bama looked sluggish at time, but once again walked away with a victory in which they held yet another opponent to less than 10. They keep saying this team has holes, but they keep winning in convincing fashion. Now they get a tune up against Chattanooga before the November 30th Iron Bowl, possibly the most anticipated match-up in this series in 20 years.
3. I said last week that despite how much I love Stanford, they weren’t deserving of a #4 BCS ranking and a mere upset or two away from a title match-up. I didn’t really need USC to prove my point, but they did. With loses against Utah and USC, how do you think Stanford would fare against FSU, Alabama, or Baylor? They’d interestingly enough probably have a better time with FSU and Baylor than Alabama, given their track record of success against spread teams versus grind it out teams. But, the BCS still loves Stanford, having them ranked the highest out of two loss teams.
4. Here we are approaching week 13, and South Carolina is still in the hunt in the SEC-East. They need a Missouri loss to either Ole Miss (not likely) or A&M (likely, but either way, take the over) to get a chance at Alabama/Auburn, and they also have a chance to show that Clemson isn’t the best one-loss team (a review of Clemson’s resume shows that a close win over Georgia isn’t that impressive now, and a blow-out against FSU with really nothing else to show for themselves implies trouble in the in-state rivalry to happen on November 30th).
5. Michigan State scored 41 against the Blackshirts from Nebraska. To put that in perspective, the only other times the Spartans have scored more than 30 were against Indiana (117th scoring defense), Illinois (111th scoring defense), and Youngstown State from the FCS. Pelini’s back on the hot seat.
6. These are words you don’t hear every day in November: Duke controls it’s own destiny in the ACC-Coastal.
7. Stanford’s loss to USC opened the door for Oregon to not only get back into the PAC-12 race, but also the National Championship race. But they’ll need a lot of help for that. Then again, remember a few years ago when LSU went from something like #7 to #2 in the second to last week of the year? With Alabama, Ohio State, Baylor, and Clemson having really tough match-ups left, this isn’t out of the question.
8. Oklahoma State dispatched Texas and pretty much knocked the Longhorns out of the Big-12 picture. Big-12 title is on the line (again) this weekend when Oklahoma State welcomes in Baylor.
9. As much as I like Arizona State, Wisconsin really should be 9-1 and likely in the top 10-15 in the BCS and playing for an at-large game. Then again, Wisconsin didn’t handle that kneel down correctly in Tempe in Week 3, so they do have some blame. Still, the Badgers’ two losses are by 9 points to the #3 and #17 teams in the BCS, so that should put them in the discussion for best two loss team in the country. Certainly, best two loss team that no one is talking about.
10. The entire game, and specifically the 4th quarter, of Georgia/Auburn was incredible. We’ve all seen the highlights, but one thing I haven’t seen much talk of is that Murray was stopped short of the goal line on their 4th down. Sure, replay upheld the call, mainly because there wasn’t indisputable evidence to overturn the call on the field. But I want to know where the opposite camera angle was. We only had two, from one side of the goal line and from the back. I want to see the opposite angle as I believe he was inches short of the goal line. Regardless, yet another example of defense backs trying to get a highlight interception when the play on 4th down needs to be to knock it down! After the deflection, that ball seemed to be in the air forever. I would’ve loved to have been there in person to witness that finish. College football at it’s finest!
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Florida State (10-0) – Off-the-field distractions don’t seem to be distracting the on-the-field play.
#2 Alabama (10-0) – Boring, yet incredibly efficient and may be the most complete Tide team of this dynasty.
#3 Baylor (9-0) – I’m a believer!
#4 Ohio State (10-0) – It’s not good when you need to run up the score against Illinois, and then only win by 25.
#5 Clemson (9-1) – Best one loss team. I think.
#6 Oregon (9-1) – Back in the picture.
#7 Auburn (10-1) – Iron Bowl. But we still have to wait a week.
#8 Oklahoma State (9-1) – Defacto Big-12 Championship this weekend. Again.
#9 Missouri (9-1) – Uh, we’re still here!!
#10 Fresno State (9-0) – Uh, so are we!
Rising Fast:
Duke – 8-2 and in control in the ACC-Coastal. And we’re talking basketball, not football.
Falling Faster:
Texas – They’ve still got a chance in the Big-12 despite the worst home loss in the Mack Brown era, and suffering their 8th straight home loss to ranked teams. Texas football, that ain’t.
Heisman Watch:
A.J. McCarron, Alabama – Sure, Winston at FSU may have better numbers and more flash, but nothing says “outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity” like sexual assault allegations that aren’t going away.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Alabama v. Florida State – I set the line at FSU -6.5 and O/U 64.
Week 13 Big Games:
Texas A&M @ LSU – The “don’t forget about us” match-up in the SEC-West. Both has aspirations for both the SEC Title and the BCS Title. Now they’re just playing for respect. LSU really shut down Johnny Football and Co. in the 2nd half last year, so it’s revenge time for A&M against an underachieving LSU team that has had flashes of brilliance. A&M 41 LSU 30.
Wisconsin @ Minnesota – A match-up of 8-2 teams in the Midwestern border battle. That’s right, Minnesota is 8-2. The Gophers have been winning close games, and while it’s no surprise that Wisconsin is rushing for over 300 yards a game, it is a bit of a surprise that Wisconsin has held six of their opponents to their lowest point total of the season. A strong rushing game and a solid defense will cause problems for Minnesota. No close game here: Wisconsin 45 Minnesota 13.
ASU @ UCLA – PAC-12 South more or less on the line in this one. ASU never plays well in So. Cal, but their defense is peaking. UCLA has struggled recently, though who doesn’t struggle against Oregon and Stanford? Overall these teams are pretty evenly matched, but weather may play a factor in this one, and if so, you gotta go with the better defense team which is ASU. Let’s take ASU in a squeaker: 31-30.
Missouri @ Ole Miss – Missouri’s starting QB is back, but their facing a Rebels team that is underrated (they’re only three loses were to A&M and Auburn by a combined 11 points, and they only gave up 25 to Alabama). The problem is that Missouri is more underrated and has shocked everyone this year, not only in the SEC but in the nation. Mizzou wins and keeps their SEC-East hopes alive: 33 to 24.
Week 13 Game of the Week:
Baylor @ Oklahoma State – Big-12 Championship game v3.0 (I think. It’s been hard to keep track). Baylor keeps impressing me, but Oklahoma State is at home and has a bit more experience. But, that loss to West Virginia is looking worse and worse, and despite picking OSU to win the Big-12, I think the tides are turning. Baylor’s offense is too explosive, and once they get the lead, they pin their ears back on defense and get to the QB. Baylor keeps things interesting the chase for the BCS: 59 to 45.
Until next time…
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Week 11 Recap and Week 12 Preview
Oregon loses to Stanford and Alabama beats LSU. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Oregon’s loss creates quite a bit of havoc in the BCS. Sure, if Alabama and FSU win out, they’re in. But with the Ducks losing, Stanford’s stock is rising, up to #4 in the BCS. As much as I love Stanford (especially those seven lineman formations when everyone in the world knows they’re running off-tackle right and they still get 5+ yards), that means we’re only two upsets away from Stanford getting into the #2 slot. I’m sorry, but we can’t have a team in the championship whose loss was to a team with one conference win. Let’s just live with a Stanford-Ohio State Rose Bowl and call it good. There are some happy folks about Oregon’s loss though – the state of Florida is all cheers, as FSU is now likely to get in, and the Orange Bowl is likely to wind up with Clemson and Oregon.
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 10 Top-10 recap:
1. Notre Dame’s loss to Pitt wasn’t shocking. Remember, Pitt should’ve beat Notre Dame last year if they can make a simple field goal. And, the Irish were only 5.5 point favorites, which should’ve given anyone pause as Vegas usually over-inflates Notre Dame point spreads anyways. What is shocking is how lifeless this Irish team is. I don’t think you recognize the value of leadership until you lose a Manti T’eo on defense and a Tyler Eifert on offense. I was laughing when folks were still saying that Notre Dame was going to a BCS game. Were they actually watching this team? I predicted 7-5, and that’s likely to happen with them closing with BYU and Stanford.
2. When Baylor fell behind 5-3 early on, I thought that they were indeed overrated. Then they scored three TDs in just a couple of minutes and ended up blowing out Oklahoma. The more impressive thing for me about Baylor is their defense. Usually these high powered offensive teams lack defense because they end up having their defense on the field for so long that they tire out. But there’s Baylor, #1 in the country at 61 points/game and #6 at scoring defense, only giving up 15/game. But, they gotta turn right around and play Texas Tech, and not falter against TCU before what’s looking to be a defacto Big-12 Championship on December 7th against Texas.
3. It’s worth noting that despite Stanford absolutely dominating Oregon on both sides of the ball for 50 minutes; Oregon was one on-side kick away from likely winning that game. That’s how explosive Oregon’s offense can be, and that’s why Stanford isn’t undefeated and going to the National Championship game. Their style just lends itself to close games.
4. What’s been a bigger surprise, how well Missouri has done in the SEC or how poor Florida has done? Losing to Vandy at home for the first time in nearly 70 years is a bad thing. What’s worse is Florida is now, at best, the fourth best team in the state.
5. Nebraska scored late, and the Blackshirts showed up, and Pelini keeps his job for another week. The stat out of this game is how horrible Michigan’s rushing has been the last two week: -69 yards rushing. Sure, a lot of that is because Gardner is slow and turns 5 yard sacks into 15-20 yard sacks, but still, for a program built on a solid ground game, two straight games with negative rushing yards (especially against Nebraska’s suspect defense) is pathetic.
6. Yet another week, yet another 21-point blow-out for Alabama. We’re watching what may wind up being the greatest college football dynasty in history, and we’re bored. That’s a shame. Even after the A&M and LSU wins, pundits were talking about how they exposed Alabama’s weaknesses. Well, here we are, 11 weeks in, and Alabama will likely be doing something they haven’t done the last two years. Finishing the season undefeated. I just wonder if the Saban to Texas distractions are going to continue to grow; especially with how much Texas just paid for their new Athletic Director.
7. With how good Alabama is, I still think Florida State is an all-around better team right now. #2 in offensive and #4 in scoring defense (and would be flirting in Alabama territory if not for giving up 34 to Boston College). The story lines are building for a FSU-‘Bama championship. I just hope they don’t screw it up.
8. Minnesota has been a good story this year – winning eight games already. But, the Big 12 is down overall, and their schedule has been fairly manageable. Of course, they close with Wisconsin and Michigan State. But, 8-4 is not a bad season for the Gophers.
9. Arizona State is off to a quiet 7-2 start and they control their destiny in the PAC-12 South. Take care of business against Oregon State, battle it out against UCLA, and don’t suck it up against UofSuck, and they get to be clobbered again by Stanford. But hey, at least ASU beat Utah.
10. So the Heisman race is wide open now; many have Winston as the top pick now with Johnny Football sneaking up behind. If I had a vote, I’d put McCarron at the top. Folks will say that it’s not about a career’s work, or reserved for someone who’s on a great team. But the Heisman criterion is vague: “The Heisman Memorial Trophy annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity.” If that’s not McCarron, I don’t know what is.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Florida State (9-0) – I think your offense is a bit better than Alabama’s.
#2 Alabama (9-0) – I think your defense is a bit better than FSU’s.
#3 Ohio State (9-0) – I think your schedule is the reason you can’t crack the Top-2.
#4 Baylor (8-0) – Still no love.
#5 Clemson (8-1) – You lost to FSU so you deserve to be here.
#6 Stanford (8-1) – You lost to Utah so you don’t deserve to be above Clemson.
#7 Oregon (8-1) – Too bad you can’t avoid Stanford on the schedule.
#8 Oklahoma State (8-1) – Remember us?
#9 Auburn (9-1) – The Iron Bowl approacheth.
#10 Fresno State (9-0) – Have fun at the Fiesta Bowl!
Rising Fast:
Baylor – Ok, I’m a believer (which of course means you’ll lose two outta your next three)
Falling Faster:
Notre Dame – There’s just nothing there. Nothing. Could end the season on three game skid.
Heisman Watch:
A.J. McCarron, Alabama – It would be deserving. He holds that team together without flashiness, cockiness, or arrogance.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Alabama v. Florida State – I could live with this match-up.
Week 12 Big Games:
Oklahoma State @ Texas – Defacto Big-12 Championship v1.1 (Texas/OU was the first), and the first of three for Oklahoma State – having Baylor next, and then finally Oklahoma. Texas has rattled off six straight since losing two out of their first three, but Oklahoma State has looked strong since that odd loss @ West Virginia (who took Texas to O.T. by the way). I think we’re in for close game, and more than likely a shootout as both defenses are pretty sketchy. I picked OSU to win the Big-12 in the preseason, so I gotta stick with them: 41 to 38.
Texas Tech @ Baylor – Baylor is on the upswing, and Tech has dropped three straight (soon to be five). Baylor’s defense is almost as impressive as their offense. They still really haven’t played anyone, but I’m a believer: Baylor 55 Texas Tech 24.
Week 12 Game of the Week:
Georgia @ Auburn – Georgia beat LSU by 3; Auburn lost to LSU by 14 (but they were on the road and Georgia was at home). Georgia’s defense is still a liability (which is the reason their margins of victory/loss against real teams has been 3, 11, 3, 3, 15, 4, and 3), and that doesn’t bode well against an Auburn team that is running the ball very well and will control the clock. And no look ahead to the Iron Bowl for Auburn, as they’ve a bye week to get ready for that. Tigers knock out the Bulldogs 45 to 38.
Until next time…
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 10 Top-10 recap:
1. Notre Dame’s loss to Pitt wasn’t shocking. Remember, Pitt should’ve beat Notre Dame last year if they can make a simple field goal. And, the Irish were only 5.5 point favorites, which should’ve given anyone pause as Vegas usually over-inflates Notre Dame point spreads anyways. What is shocking is how lifeless this Irish team is. I don’t think you recognize the value of leadership until you lose a Manti T’eo on defense and a Tyler Eifert on offense. I was laughing when folks were still saying that Notre Dame was going to a BCS game. Were they actually watching this team? I predicted 7-5, and that’s likely to happen with them closing with BYU and Stanford.
2. When Baylor fell behind 5-3 early on, I thought that they were indeed overrated. Then they scored three TDs in just a couple of minutes and ended up blowing out Oklahoma. The more impressive thing for me about Baylor is their defense. Usually these high powered offensive teams lack defense because they end up having their defense on the field for so long that they tire out. But there’s Baylor, #1 in the country at 61 points/game and #6 at scoring defense, only giving up 15/game. But, they gotta turn right around and play Texas Tech, and not falter against TCU before what’s looking to be a defacto Big-12 Championship on December 7th against Texas.
3. It’s worth noting that despite Stanford absolutely dominating Oregon on both sides of the ball for 50 minutes; Oregon was one on-side kick away from likely winning that game. That’s how explosive Oregon’s offense can be, and that’s why Stanford isn’t undefeated and going to the National Championship game. Their style just lends itself to close games.
4. What’s been a bigger surprise, how well Missouri has done in the SEC or how poor Florida has done? Losing to Vandy at home for the first time in nearly 70 years is a bad thing. What’s worse is Florida is now, at best, the fourth best team in the state.
5. Nebraska scored late, and the Blackshirts showed up, and Pelini keeps his job for another week. The stat out of this game is how horrible Michigan’s rushing has been the last two week: -69 yards rushing. Sure, a lot of that is because Gardner is slow and turns 5 yard sacks into 15-20 yard sacks, but still, for a program built on a solid ground game, two straight games with negative rushing yards (especially against Nebraska’s suspect defense) is pathetic.
6. Yet another week, yet another 21-point blow-out for Alabama. We’re watching what may wind up being the greatest college football dynasty in history, and we’re bored. That’s a shame. Even after the A&M and LSU wins, pundits were talking about how they exposed Alabama’s weaknesses. Well, here we are, 11 weeks in, and Alabama will likely be doing something they haven’t done the last two years. Finishing the season undefeated. I just wonder if the Saban to Texas distractions are going to continue to grow; especially with how much Texas just paid for their new Athletic Director.
7. With how good Alabama is, I still think Florida State is an all-around better team right now. #2 in offensive and #4 in scoring defense (and would be flirting in Alabama territory if not for giving up 34 to Boston College). The story lines are building for a FSU-‘Bama championship. I just hope they don’t screw it up.
8. Minnesota has been a good story this year – winning eight games already. But, the Big 12 is down overall, and their schedule has been fairly manageable. Of course, they close with Wisconsin and Michigan State. But, 8-4 is not a bad season for the Gophers.
9. Arizona State is off to a quiet 7-2 start and they control their destiny in the PAC-12 South. Take care of business against Oregon State, battle it out against UCLA, and don’t suck it up against UofSuck, and they get to be clobbered again by Stanford. But hey, at least ASU beat Utah.
10. So the Heisman race is wide open now; many have Winston as the top pick now with Johnny Football sneaking up behind. If I had a vote, I’d put McCarron at the top. Folks will say that it’s not about a career’s work, or reserved for someone who’s on a great team. But the Heisman criterion is vague: “The Heisman Memorial Trophy annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity.” If that’s not McCarron, I don’t know what is.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Florida State (9-0) – I think your offense is a bit better than Alabama’s.
#2 Alabama (9-0) – I think your defense is a bit better than FSU’s.
#3 Ohio State (9-0) – I think your schedule is the reason you can’t crack the Top-2.
#4 Baylor (8-0) – Still no love.
#5 Clemson (8-1) – You lost to FSU so you deserve to be here.
#6 Stanford (8-1) – You lost to Utah so you don’t deserve to be above Clemson.
#7 Oregon (8-1) – Too bad you can’t avoid Stanford on the schedule.
#8 Oklahoma State (8-1) – Remember us?
#9 Auburn (9-1) – The Iron Bowl approacheth.
#10 Fresno State (9-0) – Have fun at the Fiesta Bowl!
Rising Fast:
Baylor – Ok, I’m a believer (which of course means you’ll lose two outta your next three)
Falling Faster:
Notre Dame – There’s just nothing there. Nothing. Could end the season on three game skid.
Heisman Watch:
A.J. McCarron, Alabama – It would be deserving. He holds that team together without flashiness, cockiness, or arrogance.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Alabama v. Florida State – I could live with this match-up.
Week 12 Big Games:
Oklahoma State @ Texas – Defacto Big-12 Championship v1.1 (Texas/OU was the first), and the first of three for Oklahoma State – having Baylor next, and then finally Oklahoma. Texas has rattled off six straight since losing two out of their first three, but Oklahoma State has looked strong since that odd loss @ West Virginia (who took Texas to O.T. by the way). I think we’re in for close game, and more than likely a shootout as both defenses are pretty sketchy. I picked OSU to win the Big-12 in the preseason, so I gotta stick with them: 41 to 38.
Texas Tech @ Baylor – Baylor is on the upswing, and Tech has dropped three straight (soon to be five). Baylor’s defense is almost as impressive as their offense. They still really haven’t played anyone, but I’m a believer: Baylor 55 Texas Tech 24.
Week 12 Game of the Week:
Georgia @ Auburn – Georgia beat LSU by 3; Auburn lost to LSU by 14 (but they were on the road and Georgia was at home). Georgia’s defense is still a liability (which is the reason their margins of victory/loss against real teams has been 3, 11, 3, 3, 15, 4, and 3), and that doesn’t bode well against an Auburn team that is running the ball very well and will control the clock. And no look ahead to the Iron Bowl for Auburn, as they’ve a bye week to get ready for that. Tigers knock out the Bulldogs 45 to 38.
Until next time…
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
Week 10 Recap and Week 11 Preview
Sure enough, Florida State jumps back over Oregon in the BCS by beating an overrated Miami team (seriously; FSU was 21 point favorites). Don’t get me wrong, FSU is good; well, great; but, this flip-flopping poll nonsense is, well, nonsense. Oregon may have had a legitimate beef with not getting to the Championship last year – but the canned response is “don’t lose to Stanford.” That holds true this year as well, but can you imagine the chaos that’s going to ensue if we wind up with four unbeaten teams (not counting Fresno and Northern Illinois, of course) at the end of the season? In the words of Dick Enberg, “Oh my.” Thankfully, these things usually sort themselves out in the final few weeks. And, we’re in the final few weeks.
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 10 Top-10 recap:
1. What’s scarier about Navy almost beating Notre Dame (and racking up 330+ yards rushing on an Irish defense that was supposed to be better than last year’s version) is that if Navy had won (and they were certainly in a position to do so) it would’ve been their third win in their last four trips to South Bend. Remember when the Navy game was the one guaranteed victory for the Irish? Oh how things have changed…
2. I’ve never been a big Ohio State fan, but they’re just not getting any love at all. 21-0 under Urban Meyer, and unless Alabama and Florida State lose, they’re not going to get in, despite a likely 13-0 record in a major conference. We need a playoff and we need it now.
3. Granted it was only against Tennessee, but for Missouri to bounce back with a big win after the heartbreaking double O.T. loss to South Carolina shows that the Tigers are legitimate contenders in the SEC East. They need to take care of business against Kentucky and Ole Miss on the road, and then they close with A&M at home. If they win all three; they get ‘Bama in the SEC Championship. And speaking of Tennessee, what a brutal schedule. This weekend against Auburn will be their fifth straight game against Top-11 competition, coupled with the earlier road games against Oregon and Florida. It’s hard to have a good season when you play seven ranked teams.
4. USC has won three straight PAC-12 games after they bagged Lame Kiffin. That’s been bittersweet for me. As much as I hate Kiffin, I hate USC more. I remember the feeling I had after USC got rid of John Robinson and Paul Hackett and hired Pete Carroll. They went from a decade of mediocrity to great almost overnight (cheating certainly helped, of course). I fear that USC is going to be back to greatness now that Kiffin is a distant memory. I just hope that Kiffin doesn’t land in Nebraska when Pelini gets run out of town. I don’t even think the Hail Mary can save his job.
5. Staying in the PAC-12, Arizona State appears to be on a collision course with Oregon for the PAC-12 Championship. ASU’s offense is probably the only one in the PAC-12 that could attempt to stay in a shootout with Oregon, and their scores against common opponents have been pretty similar. But, ASU was blown out by Stanford, and Stanford is not going to blow out Oregon. Still, take the over on an ASU/Oregon PAC-12 Championship.
6. The Michigan-Michigan State game was so ugly that it’s worth discussing for a just a bit. Okay, that’s about enough of a recap of that game. Sparty’s in line to get destroyed by Ohio State in the Big10 Championship.
7. Wisconsin is the best two loss team that no one is talking about. They likely should only have one loss with how the refs botched the finish @ Arizona State. And, they only lost by seven at the Horseshoe to Ohio State. They should finish 10-2, if they can survive the trip to Minnesota in a couple weeks. Yes, Minnesota. 7-2 Minnesota. Well, soon to be 7-5 Minnesota, but whatever.
8. If you had to pick Boyd to Watkins or Manziel to Evans as your top QB to WR combo, which would you pick? I’d probably pick Boyd/Watkins solely because of their first names: Tajh and Sammy sounds much more badass than Johnny and Mike. Then again, Johnny Lawrence and Mike Barnes were the villains in Karate Kid I and III…
9. Time to dust off the tie-breaker rules for the Big 12 Championship (since there’s not a conference championship game anymore, the rulebook is sponsored by Dr. Pepper). Texas is soon to be 6-0 in the conference, but closes with Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Baylor. Baylor is 4-0, but has Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Texas. Oklahoma State had the random loss to West Virginia, but still has Texas, Baylor, and Oklahoma. And finally, Oklahoma was shellacked by Texas, but only has Baylor and Oklahoma State left (well, not counting Iowa State and Kansas State). Oklahoma has the easier road, but with the loss to Texas, needs two Texas losses. I’m still betting on Oklahoma State to come out on top.
10. Well, we’re ten weeks in, let’s look back at my preseason Top-10: #1 Oregon, #2 Ohio State, #3 South Carolina, #4 Stanford, #5 Alabama, #6 Louisville, #7 Georgia, #8 Oklahoma State, #9 Clemson, and #10 Florida. So, oops on South Carolina, Louisville, Georgia, Okie State, and Florida (though, Oklahoma State could find themselves back in the Top-10 pretty quick). Not too shabby.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (8-0) – Win out, and you’re in. Don’t worry about those flip-flopping polls. FSU’s schedule isn’t going to help them from here on out.
#2 Ohio State (9-0) – Style points don’t matter Urban. Quit running up the score (though, if you get the chance to drop a hondo on Indiana in couple weeks, do it!)
#3 Alabama (8-0) – Wouldn’t it be sad if this “boring” team winds up undefeated (something they weren’t the last two years) champs? How would that affect their dynasty?
#4 Florida State (9-0) – Yes, Miami was overrated. But still, you put a whipping on the ‘Canes.
#5 Clemson (8-1) – Boyd to Watkins is fun to watch. Over and over.
#6 Stanford (7-1) – I don’t think you’re as good as last year’s team. We’ll find out for sure on Thursday.
#7 Oklahoma (7-1) – Since you’re going to beat Baylor, I have to have you ranked ahead of them.
#8 Baylor (7-0) – Fun run, while it lasted.
#9 LSU (7-2) – If you don’t beat ‘Bama, we can just forget about this ranking, m’kay?
#10 Fresno State (8-0) – Northern Illinois earned the right to get clobbered by a real team; you’ll probably get lucky and have a shot to beat the Big12 Champion in the Fiesta Bowl.
Rising Fast:
Florida State – Not just beating good teams, but destroying them. FSU is a legitimate title contender, and if the initial rankings came out today, they’d probably be #1. I have them #4 because I’m still pissed they gave them the title in ’93 over Notre Dame even though Notre Dame beat them head-to-head.
Falling Faster:
Texas Tech – Started off 7-0. Now you’ve lost two straight and still have Baylor and Texas.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota – It’s simple, if Oregon beats Stanford, he wins the Heisman.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Ohio State continues to be on the outside looking in, but I still have them here because it’s pretty clear they aren’t going to lose. FSU will lose to someone (they always do), as will Alabama. If ‘Bama does wind up undefeated, I’ll really enjoy the Oregon-Alabama match-up, but I’m sticking with my preseason prediction (gotta be a record for the Autumn Wind to have the same prediction in week 11) of Oregon & Ohio State.
Week 11 Big Games:
Oklahoma @ Baylor – Baylor finally plays someone, and it’s safe to say that they’re not going to put up 60 on the Sooners. OU has a revamped defense to counter the spread offense, and it’s been working wonders. I’m still not sure what happened in the Red River Rivalry, but OU is probably the best one loss team in the country; okay, maybe a bit behind Clemson. Baylor’s dream season comes to an end, despite being at home with a crowd calling this one the biggest game in Baylor history. Oklahoma
LSU @ Alabama – 21-17, 9-6, 24-21. Those are the scores of the last three regular season games between Alabama and LSU (throw out the 21-0 National Championship matchup that never should’ve happened). And, LSU has won two out of three of those. We all know Alabama’s story, and while LSU limps in with two losses, they were by a combined six points to pretty good Georgia and Ole’ Miss teams. Both teams can score, but Alabama’s defense keeps getting better and better – only giving up a total of 26 points in their last six games. But, folks are getting complacent in Tuscaloosa. I’ve heard from several Alabama fans that aren’t even watching games anymore because, and I quote: “they’re boring.” Alabama is favored by 11, which is crazy, considering the recent history between these two. I’m sticking to my guns, and I’m calling the upset, which knocks the SEC out of Championship consideration: LSU 23 Alabama 20.
Week 11 Game of the Week:
Oregon @ Stanford – I’ve had this one circled since last year when Oregon laid a balut at home and shanked that FG attempt in O.T. in their 14-7 loss that kept them out of the national championship picture. But Stanford was just returning the favor from 2011 when Oregon blew them out of championship consideration in a 53-20 loss at the Farm. Both teams have shown they can win on each others’ field, so that won’t play a factor. Turnovers will. That will decide the game. Mariota hasn’t thrown an INT since the Stanford game last year. If he protects the ball, Oregon wins. The other major factor is injuries. Stanford’s a little beat up. They were able to control tempo from start to finish last year, but with some injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and not as efficient of an offense compared to last year’s version, Stanford needs to avoid a patented Duck three-TD burst. And they won’t be able to. Oregon wins big: 43 to 24.
Until next time…
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 10 Top-10 recap:
1. What’s scarier about Navy almost beating Notre Dame (and racking up 330+ yards rushing on an Irish defense that was supposed to be better than last year’s version) is that if Navy had won (and they were certainly in a position to do so) it would’ve been their third win in their last four trips to South Bend. Remember when the Navy game was the one guaranteed victory for the Irish? Oh how things have changed…
2. I’ve never been a big Ohio State fan, but they’re just not getting any love at all. 21-0 under Urban Meyer, and unless Alabama and Florida State lose, they’re not going to get in, despite a likely 13-0 record in a major conference. We need a playoff and we need it now.
3. Granted it was only against Tennessee, but for Missouri to bounce back with a big win after the heartbreaking double O.T. loss to South Carolina shows that the Tigers are legitimate contenders in the SEC East. They need to take care of business against Kentucky and Ole Miss on the road, and then they close with A&M at home. If they win all three; they get ‘Bama in the SEC Championship. And speaking of Tennessee, what a brutal schedule. This weekend against Auburn will be their fifth straight game against Top-11 competition, coupled with the earlier road games against Oregon and Florida. It’s hard to have a good season when you play seven ranked teams.
4. USC has won three straight PAC-12 games after they bagged Lame Kiffin. That’s been bittersweet for me. As much as I hate Kiffin, I hate USC more. I remember the feeling I had after USC got rid of John Robinson and Paul Hackett and hired Pete Carroll. They went from a decade of mediocrity to great almost overnight (cheating certainly helped, of course). I fear that USC is going to be back to greatness now that Kiffin is a distant memory. I just hope that Kiffin doesn’t land in Nebraska when Pelini gets run out of town. I don’t even think the Hail Mary can save his job.
5. Staying in the PAC-12, Arizona State appears to be on a collision course with Oregon for the PAC-12 Championship. ASU’s offense is probably the only one in the PAC-12 that could attempt to stay in a shootout with Oregon, and their scores against common opponents have been pretty similar. But, ASU was blown out by Stanford, and Stanford is not going to blow out Oregon. Still, take the over on an ASU/Oregon PAC-12 Championship.
6. The Michigan-Michigan State game was so ugly that it’s worth discussing for a just a bit. Okay, that’s about enough of a recap of that game. Sparty’s in line to get destroyed by Ohio State in the Big10 Championship.
7. Wisconsin is the best two loss team that no one is talking about. They likely should only have one loss with how the refs botched the finish @ Arizona State. And, they only lost by seven at the Horseshoe to Ohio State. They should finish 10-2, if they can survive the trip to Minnesota in a couple weeks. Yes, Minnesota. 7-2 Minnesota. Well, soon to be 7-5 Minnesota, but whatever.
8. If you had to pick Boyd to Watkins or Manziel to Evans as your top QB to WR combo, which would you pick? I’d probably pick Boyd/Watkins solely because of their first names: Tajh and Sammy sounds much more badass than Johnny and Mike. Then again, Johnny Lawrence and Mike Barnes were the villains in Karate Kid I and III…
9. Time to dust off the tie-breaker rules for the Big 12 Championship (since there’s not a conference championship game anymore, the rulebook is sponsored by Dr. Pepper). Texas is soon to be 6-0 in the conference, but closes with Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Baylor. Baylor is 4-0, but has Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Texas. Oklahoma State had the random loss to West Virginia, but still has Texas, Baylor, and Oklahoma. And finally, Oklahoma was shellacked by Texas, but only has Baylor and Oklahoma State left (well, not counting Iowa State and Kansas State). Oklahoma has the easier road, but with the loss to Texas, needs two Texas losses. I’m still betting on Oklahoma State to come out on top.
10. Well, we’re ten weeks in, let’s look back at my preseason Top-10: #1 Oregon, #2 Ohio State, #3 South Carolina, #4 Stanford, #5 Alabama, #6 Louisville, #7 Georgia, #8 Oklahoma State, #9 Clemson, and #10 Florida. So, oops on South Carolina, Louisville, Georgia, Okie State, and Florida (though, Oklahoma State could find themselves back in the Top-10 pretty quick). Not too shabby.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (8-0) – Win out, and you’re in. Don’t worry about those flip-flopping polls. FSU’s schedule isn’t going to help them from here on out.
#2 Ohio State (9-0) – Style points don’t matter Urban. Quit running up the score (though, if you get the chance to drop a hondo on Indiana in couple weeks, do it!)
#3 Alabama (8-0) – Wouldn’t it be sad if this “boring” team winds up undefeated (something they weren’t the last two years) champs? How would that affect their dynasty?
#4 Florida State (9-0) – Yes, Miami was overrated. But still, you put a whipping on the ‘Canes.
#5 Clemson (8-1) – Boyd to Watkins is fun to watch. Over and over.
#6 Stanford (7-1) – I don’t think you’re as good as last year’s team. We’ll find out for sure on Thursday.
#7 Oklahoma (7-1) – Since you’re going to beat Baylor, I have to have you ranked ahead of them.
#8 Baylor (7-0) – Fun run, while it lasted.
#9 LSU (7-2) – If you don’t beat ‘Bama, we can just forget about this ranking, m’kay?
#10 Fresno State (8-0) – Northern Illinois earned the right to get clobbered by a real team; you’ll probably get lucky and have a shot to beat the Big12 Champion in the Fiesta Bowl.
Rising Fast:
Florida State – Not just beating good teams, but destroying them. FSU is a legitimate title contender, and if the initial rankings came out today, they’d probably be #1. I have them #4 because I’m still pissed they gave them the title in ’93 over Notre Dame even though Notre Dame beat them head-to-head.
Falling Faster:
Texas Tech – Started off 7-0. Now you’ve lost two straight and still have Baylor and Texas.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota – It’s simple, if Oregon beats Stanford, he wins the Heisman.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Ohio State continues to be on the outside looking in, but I still have them here because it’s pretty clear they aren’t going to lose. FSU will lose to someone (they always do), as will Alabama. If ‘Bama does wind up undefeated, I’ll really enjoy the Oregon-Alabama match-up, but I’m sticking with my preseason prediction (gotta be a record for the Autumn Wind to have the same prediction in week 11) of Oregon & Ohio State.
Week 11 Big Games:
Oklahoma @ Baylor – Baylor finally plays someone, and it’s safe to say that they’re not going to put up 60 on the Sooners. OU has a revamped defense to counter the spread offense, and it’s been working wonders. I’m still not sure what happened in the Red River Rivalry, but OU is probably the best one loss team in the country; okay, maybe a bit behind Clemson. Baylor’s dream season comes to an end, despite being at home with a crowd calling this one the biggest game in Baylor history. Oklahoma
LSU @ Alabama – 21-17, 9-6, 24-21. Those are the scores of the last three regular season games between Alabama and LSU (throw out the 21-0 National Championship matchup that never should’ve happened). And, LSU has won two out of three of those. We all know Alabama’s story, and while LSU limps in with two losses, they were by a combined six points to pretty good Georgia and Ole’ Miss teams. Both teams can score, but Alabama’s defense keeps getting better and better – only giving up a total of 26 points in their last six games. But, folks are getting complacent in Tuscaloosa. I’ve heard from several Alabama fans that aren’t even watching games anymore because, and I quote: “they’re boring.” Alabama is favored by 11, which is crazy, considering the recent history between these two. I’m sticking to my guns, and I’m calling the upset, which knocks the SEC out of Championship consideration: LSU 23 Alabama 20.
Week 11 Game of the Week:
Oregon @ Stanford – I’ve had this one circled since last year when Oregon laid a balut at home and shanked that FG attempt in O.T. in their 14-7 loss that kept them out of the national championship picture. But Stanford was just returning the favor from 2011 when Oregon blew them out of championship consideration in a 53-20 loss at the Farm. Both teams have shown they can win on each others’ field, so that won’t play a factor. Turnovers will. That will decide the game. Mariota hasn’t thrown an INT since the Stanford game last year. If he protects the ball, Oregon wins. The other major factor is injuries. Stanford’s a little beat up. They were able to control tempo from start to finish last year, but with some injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and not as efficient of an offense compared to last year’s version, Stanford needs to avoid a patented Duck three-TD burst. And they won’t be able to. Oregon wins big: 43 to 24.
Until next time…
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