Things are set up perfectly now heading into Conference Championship weekend. It’s like a playoff before the playoff. I mean, we have Florida State & Georgia Tech, Oregon and UofSuck, Alabama and Missouri, Wisconsin and Ohio State, and of course – TCU and Iowa State. Wait, what? Come on Big12. Get your act together, grab a couple more teams, and get a conference championship already! It’s going to be extremely interesting to see what happens if TCU beats Iowa State (and they’re a 35-point favorite) and Baylor beats Kansas State. Can the committee all of the sudden reward Baylor and punish TCU? Or do we wind up with two Big 12 teams is FSU, Oregon, or Alabama go down?
For this update, let’s do a series of numbers games for the Top-10 from this weekend.
1. Three teams with 9+ wins the last five years. Alabama, Oregon, and………yep, Nebraska. The main reason Pelini was fired wasn’t because he won nine games every year – you don’t remember those. What you do remember is the losses; the bad losses, especially at the end of the year in the heart of conference play.
2. 4-0 or 0-4, depending how the look at it. That was the record of the ACC versus the SEC this weekend in their annual in-state rivalries. Great weekend for the ACC; not so much for the SEC (especially with Mississippi State losing the Egg Bowl) – though, Alabama can get the last laugh with a win against Missouri and be the lone representative of the SEC in the playoff.
3. 22-1, 0-2: Oregon’s record the last two years versus everyone, and their record the last two years against UofSuck. I guess it’s fitting that they’ll play in the PAC-12 Championship. And, if UofSuck gets yet another win against the Ducks, they’ll probably sneak into #4, with a little bit of help from Kansas State, Wisconsin, and possibly Georgia Tech.
4. 1: The number of teams that will have played 12 games against Power5 opponents. Must be an SEC team, right? Maybe Notre Dame? Perhaps a PAC-12 team? Nope. Florida State. That’s right, say what you want about their perceived schedule, their conference, their off the field problems, their game day struggles, their ranking in the playoffs right now, etc.; they will have played more Power5 opponents than anyone else this year. And up until now, they’re undefeated. Until this weekend, that is.
5. 566 and 628: No championship team since 2000 has given up more than 566 yards in a game. ‘Bama gave up nearly a hondo more than that against Auburn this weekend.
6. 7-0: Stanford’s record this year when scoring 20+ points (0-5 when scoring less than 20). What happened to the offense this year? Getting shut down by USC and Utah is one thing – but only scoring 14 against Notre Dame’s worst defense ever? 10 against an ASU team that gave up 62 to UCLA and was 75th in the country in scoring defense? For being the 2nd best scoring defense in the country (behind Ole Miss), you gotta win more than seven games, Stanford.
7. 1446, 133, & 15: If you thought Auburn and Alabama lit up the scoreboard, you obviously didn’t catch the Marshall/Western Kentucky game. 15 TD passes between the two, 133 total points, and 1446 total yards. And good for WKU to go for two in the first overtime. You had 738 yards of total offense; was there really a doubt you couldn’t get a couple more?
8. Three in the Top-10: If I had asked after week 2, which conference would have three teams in the Top-10 going into Championship weekend, how many would’ve said the Big 12? Sure, we knew the SEC (particularly the West) was going to beat each other up, but the way the TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State have persevered has been impressive. But, as the schedule is set up, one of them is going down this weekend; which means the Big 12’s lack of a championship game still has major implications for the playoff. There’s a still an outside chance that the Big-12 gets both TCU and Baylor in the playoff, which no one saw coming this year.
9. 28 and 12.6: Despite being on a 28 game winning streak, Florida State is only outscoring opponents this year by an average of 12.6 points a game. That’s the lowest amount for an undefeated team in the past ten years, and when compared to their 39.5 points per game margin of victory last year, it’s easy to see why FSU is slipping down the rankings, despite continuing to win. And I thought margin of victory wasn’t supposed to play into the committee’s considerations?
10. 1st in 127 years: Not only did Notre Dame give up 30+ points in seven straight games for the first time in the 127 year history of their football program, they also allowed six passing TD’s for the first time ever in their finale against rival USC. Yikes, the Irish were one marginal call away from upsetting then #1 FSU on the road and remaining undefeated, to this; all in just a few weeks? I bet Brian Kelly is wishing some NFL teams will come calling again…
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (12-0) – To be the best, you’ve gotta beat the best. Until they lose, FSU has to be #1.
#2. Oregon (11-1) – Are you excited, or petrified to be seeing UofSuck for the third time in two years?
#3. Alabama (11-1) – If Georgia beat Missouri 34-0, how bad will ‘Bama beat them?
#4. Baylor (10-1) – Don’t worry, if you take care of business, you’ll leap from TCU in the playoff poll. But, that’s a big if…
#5. TCU (10-1) – Iowa State has a history of pulling huge upsets to end the season. Just ask Nebraska and Oklahoma State, among others. But this one isn’t in Ames.
#6. Ohio State (10-1) – Is it ironic that Ohio State basketball was punished in the playoff rankings because of a key injury? You know the committee is going to be watching this one very close.
#7. Arizona (10-2) – Dating back to 1959, I don’t think UofSuck has ever won the PAC-12 outright in football.
#8. Michigan State (10-2) – Not gonna move much higher.
#9. Kansas State (9-2) – #4 is still a long shot, but within the mathematical realm of possibility (meaning, there’s no chance in hell)
#10. Georgia Tech (10-2) – You can make a lot of people happy if you can pull the upset.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota – Signed, sealed, delivered.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Baylor
#2 Oregon v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State v. Alabama – Of course, if the current playoff committee rankings hold true, this will be one of the semi-finals. Rumor has it, under the BCS system, these teams would be #1 and #2. Make it happen, committee.
Week 15 Big Games:
Florida State v. Georgia Tech – The blueprint will be the same as it’s been all year. FSU will find themselves behind in the first half, Winston will throw a couple of picks, and the Seminoles will rally in the second half. But, the difference in this game will be if Georgia Tech can 1) control the line of scrimmage for all 60 minutes, 2) frustrate the FSU defense with long drives, 3) win the turnover battle (especially in the second half), and 4) punch in TD’s and not FG’s inside the redzone. If three of those things happen, Georgia Tech pulls the upset. And, FSU is due for a loss. I like Georgia Tech 34 Florida State 31
Alabama v. Missouri – We’ve talked all year about how Alabama has had some weaknesses and holes, and yet here they are. Again. Missouri on the other hand, wasn’t supposed to be here. After getting blown out 34-0 to Georgia, Missouri has won six straight, including four as underdogs, to get back to the SEC Championship Game for the second year in a row. The difference will be this: 8-1 v. 0-5. Saban is 8-1 in conference and national championship games, while Missouri is 0-5 in conference championship games all time. Alabama has the experience, the coaching, the depth, the ability to win with both offense and defense, and of course: “the process.” Alabama 41 Missouri 27
Wisconsin v. Ohio State – After Braxton Miller went out in the preseason, and then Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech, everyone counted them out. But, they’ve steamrolled through the rest of the season, only to lose their other starting QB to injury, who set all sorts of records in place of Miller. We know what we’re going to get out of Wisconsin, a steady dose of Melvin Gordon, even though he’s got a sore ankle. Ohio State is going to load up the box and stop Gordon, and play extremely conservative on offense with their third string QB. Look for a low scoring, field position dominated grudge match. And in the end, I like Ohio State to come out on top: 23 to 20.
Kanas State @ Baylor – Baylor can win the Big 12 (regardless of what the committee says) with a win here and in my opinion solidify their spot in the Top-4 because of their head-to-head win over TCU. Kansas State can ruin things for the Bears, and it might be a bit easier, considering Baylor almost lost to Texas Tech and Bryce Perry is beat up pretty good. But, the bottom line is this: despite all of the good wins in his career, and despite how well he’s built the K State program, Bill Synder is 0-10 in Top-10 match-ups. That alone favors the Bears. Baylor 34 Kansas State 24
Week 15 Game of the Week:
Arizona v. Oregon – Arizona’s two game winning streak over the Ducks is largely because of injury. Last year, Mariota had a bum leg, and this year, Oregon didn’t have an offense line. The Ducks are healthy and hungry, and it’s really hard to beat a Top-5 team twice in the same year. In fact, the last 13 times that a team has faced a Top-5 team twice in one year, they’ve only beaten them both times once: in 1999 when Alabama knocked off Top-5 Florida twice. It’ll also help that this game is on Friday night – all alone on TV – and the Ducks will secure themselves a spot in the inaugural playoff: Oregon 44 UofSuck 31
Until next time…
