Here’s why I hate the BCS. Two weeks ago, Oregon destroys Washington State and loses a spot in the standings because Florida State destroyed Clemson. Now, Oregon beats up on UCLA and all FSU does is clobber the NC State team that beat ‘em last year, and now FSU drops a spot. Get it together BCS; it’s not a “what have you done for me lately?” or “how bad did you beat a team you’re supposed to beat” ranking system. But, thankfully, it’s almost over. Speaking of almost over, the race to the Championship is down to pretty much four teams – Oregon, Ohio State, Alabama, and Florida State. All four took care of business with no problems this weekend, and if all four remain unbeaten, it would be a shame if 1) Oregon and Alabama don’t play (as they should’ve been the two to play last year; sorry, Notre Dame) and 2) we don’t have the four team playoff this year. And to prove how ridiculous the BCS ranking system is, I predict FSU will once again jump over Oregon because FSU has undefeated Miami and Oregon has a bye.
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 9 Top-10 recap:
1. Would whoever had Duke beating Virginia Tech and Minnesota beating Nebraska in your weekly pool please stand up. Thought so.
2. Miami remains unbeaten, but has been living dangerously the last couple of weeks; needing last minute scores to beat North Carolina and Wake Forest. That’s fine and dandy against teams with a combined 3-6 record in the ACC, but now you have to travel to Tallahassee. Looks like Miami is the next unbeaten to drop.
3. Baylor keeps rolling, yet they failed to score at least 69 for only the second time. They’re offense leads the nation in points (64/game), and they’ve only given up 16/game. The problem with Baylor is that we’re nine weeks into the season and they still haven’t played anyone. Their toughest competition so far has been either Kansas State or West Virginia – both of which have losing records. But that’s all gonna change. Enjoy your bye week Baylor. After that you get Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Texas. It’s quite possible you could lose all five of those. Okay, maybe not TCU. But here we are in week 10, and the Big12 has five teams with one loss or less in the conference. Seems like the scheduling has worked out for a mini-Big12 Championship playoff over the next few weeks.
4. Missouri’s dream season came to an abrupt end after leading South Carolina 17-0 after three quarters. Injured QB Shaw comes into the game and leads South Carolina on an amazing fourth quarter comeback on the road. And these weren’t short drives; all three scoring drives went 60+ yards. The look on the faces in the crowd after Missouri missed the 24 yard extra point length FG in O.T. said it all. Regardless, Mizzou still has the upper hand to win the SEC-East, but they need to beat Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and ol’ Big 12 rival Texas A&M.
5. As much as I love Stanford this year, and what they’ve done with their program the last several years, I’m still scratching my head as to how they’re basically ranked the same as they would be if they hadn’t lost to 4-4 Utah. Don’t get me wrong, Stanford is a great team, and has a very favorable schedule here on out (both Oregon and Notre Dame at the Farm); but are they the best one loss team in the country? Clemson and Oklahoma would surely disagree.
6. Was LSU really only ahead of Furman 20-16 at halftime? You’re not going to beat Alabama at that rate.
7. Both Fresno State and Northern Illinois stayed undefeated and have eyes on busting the BCS. Fresno’s gonna have to get by Boise State (again) in the Mountain West Championship game, and Northern Illinois is going to have to beat Ball State and Toledo (combined record 13-4) to even get to the MAC Championship, likely against Buffalo. But at #16 and 17 they’re both in a pretty good position right now with lots of teams above them that are going to lose a time or two before it is all said and done.
8. Obscure stats of the week. With a five TD performance against Air Force, Tommy Rees is now third in passing TD’s in Irish history (bumping Powlus to fourth) and now has the same number of wins at Theisman and Lujak. Pretty impressive for a guy that’s really never even been the starter; just more of a “well, I guess we need a QB – hey Tommy, what’cha doing today?” Sidebar on Powlus – I still dislike Chris Collingsworth for saying that Powlus was gonna win the Heisman four times after his first start when he threw four TDs against a crappy Northwestern game. “Step out of the way, Joe Montana” was the quote, I believe. Nice prediction, Chris.
9. The Big 12 doesn’t really want a champion this year it seems. Tech was the latest victim to go down (to Oklahoma), and now it’s just Texas and Baylor at the top. But that’s all gonna change soon with how stacked the Big 12 schedule is at the end of the year. I think Oklahoma probably has the best chance to come away with it, but don’t count out Baylor and that dangerous offense that has their fans saying RG-Who?
10. Oregon had some turnovers and played pretty sloppy in the first half against UCLA. But, they were tied, where as just about any other team would’ve been down by two to three scores. Then they went on the patented Ducks run. I’m not sure there’s a team out there (including Alabama, Ohio State, or even FSU) that has the ability to 1) hold the Ducks under 40 in a big game, and 2) play fast enough to score enough to score more than them. Kinda like Stanford did last year, LSU and USC the year before (okay, the USC game was kind of a shootout), and Auburn did in the championship game three years ago. But, I just don’t see that happening this year. They’re just really firing on all cylinders and have a week off to prep for revenge against Stanford, a team that’s looking more and more beatable as the year goes on.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (8-0) – First big test passed. Now on to the Farm.
#2 Ohio State (8-0) – I don’t see a loss coming.
#3 Alabama (8-0) – Yet another >40 to <14 win.
#4 Florida State (7-0) – Can you beat Miami twice? You may have to.
#5 Clemson (7-1) – Needs to finish strong to get a (deservedly so) at large BCS bid.
#6 Stanford (6-1) – The thing that worries me is you like to keep games close against everyone.
#7 Miami (7-0) – Sorry, ‘Canes, I’m not a believer.
#8 Baylor (7-0) – Still not sure whether or not to believe. We’ll know more soon.
#9 Oklahoma (7-1) – The Big 12 is still yours if you want it.
#10 LSU (7-2) – Problem is, even if you beat Alabama, you’ll lose to A&M the following week.
Rising Fast:
Minnesota and Duke – Both are bowl eligible in October!
Falling Faster:
Nebraska – Losing to UCLA is one thing. Losing to Minnesota for the first time in 50+ years is something else.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota – Not great statistics against UCLA, but they did what Boyd couldn’t do. Win when it matters. Now, the November 7th game @ Stanford will decide whether or not you win it. This is your Johnny Football moment.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Alabama still has LSU, Auburn, and the SEC Championship (South Carolina?). FSU has Miami (maybe twice) and Florida. Oregon has Stanford, Oregon State, and probably UCLA again. Ohio State has Michigan (maybe twice). See where I’m going with this whole “Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game” thing? Their road is much easier.
Week 10 Big Games:
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech – Two really even matched teams square off in one. Oklahoma State has looked better since its bizarre loss to West Virginia, while Tech is coming out of a shootout with Oklahoma where they came up just short. Oklahoma State is gonna give up points, and Tech is at home. That should be just enough to squeak out a victory for the Red Raiders: 37 to 34.
Michigan @ Michigan State – Michigan State can pretty much wrap up the Legends division with a victory over the Wolverines. Despite both teams only having one loss; neither has been very impressive. Michigan State’s at home, but Michigan is the much better team. Let’s pick Michigan to win 27 to 17.
Week 10 Game of the Week:
Miami @ Florida State – This match-up kind of reminds me of this week’s Sunday Night Football game between the Packers and the Vikings. Old rivals, lots of odd finishes over the years; but ultimately reality sets in and you realize: where is Miami (Vikings) going to generate enough offense to keep up with the Seminoles (Packers)? Miami is having a good run, and may get FSU again in the ACC Championship game, but they just don’t have enough on either side of the ball to win this one. Florida State 41 Miami 27.
Until next time…
Monday, October 28, 2013
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Week 8 Recap and Week 9 Preview
Disclaimer: I watched no college football this week; well, with the exception of the Tuesday LA-Lafayette/Western Kentucky game. My elk hunt started Friday, so I was out in the woods from Thursday until Sunday. By the time I killed the elk on Saturday evening and got back to camp, all of the games were done. But, oh boy, was I scoreboard watching. And what a show it was to watch. Should’ve known something was up when Miami needed a last minute drive to beat North Carolina on Thursday, and then when Louisville went down on Friday. Followed by South Carolina and Georgia going down, Tech struggling with West Virginia, Florida bounced by Missouri, Ohio State struggling with Iowa, Auburn rolling A&M, Stanford owning UCLA once again, and Clemson getting trounced by Florida State. And, then there’s Oregon scoring 60 again and Alabama pitching another shut-out. So, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Since I didn’t watch much this weekend, let’s get straight to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (7-0) – Now it’s time to see what you’re made of, with UCLA and Stanford as your next two opponents.
#2 Ohio State (7-0) – The easiest road to undefeated territory; though, we saw what happened to Louisville.
#3 Alabama (7-0) – Even after giving up 42 to A&M, you’re back to the #1 scoring defense in the land.
#4 Florida State (6-0) – Destroyed Clemson. Undefeated Miami coming up in two weeks. Don’t forget about NC State!!!
#5 Missouri (7-0) – Who had Mizzou with a two game lead in the SEC East after week 8?
#6 Miami (6-0) – Living dangerously.
#7 Stanford (6-1) – Want that Utah game back?
#8 Texas Tech (7-0) – Flavor of the week in the Big 12.
#9 Clemson (6-1) – The Georgia win isn’t as impressive now, is it?
#10 Fresno State (6-0) – Sure, why not? Lots of teams ranked above you are guaranteed to lose.
Rising Fast:
Auburn – All of the sudden, the Iron Bowl looks to be Alabama’s most difficult remaining game.
Falling Faster:
Top-10 teams – Not a good week, unless you’re Oregon, Ohio State, Alabama, and Florida State.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota – Boyd failed his test against Florida State. Let’s see how Mariota and company do against UCLA and Stanford.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Sticking with it, as Ohio State still has the easier road compared to Alabama or Florida State. But okay, I really want to see Oregon/Alabama, as I think most people do.
Week 9 Big Games:
Tennessee @ Alabama – Alabama shouldn’t be 28 point favorites in this game. Not for the third weekend in October, or whatever all the freaks in the south celebrate. ‘Bama wins, but not by 4 TDs. Alabama 31 Tennessee 17.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma – Big 12 is still wide open, but Tech can create some more breathing room if they can go into Norman and get a victory. But they can’t. Oklahoma with a chance to get back into the Big 12 race with a big victory: 38 to 35.
South Carolina @ Missouri – Missouri is one of the big surprises of the season – a two game lead in the SEC East. South Carolina is one of the disappointments of the season – two losses already, with Missouri, Florida, and Clemson still on the schedule. But, Missouri has no business winning this game. Then again, they had no business beating Georgia or Florida either. Let’s see if Mizzou can’t keep it going: 34 to 24.
Stanford @ Oregon State – Oregon State’s rattled off six straight since they lost to Eastern Washington in week one. And, they won @ Utah, something Stanford couldn’t do. The Beaver’s are also first in the nation in passing, and ninth in points/game. Stanford’s defense will be tested, but I think the Utah loss really has them refocused. Let’s look for Stanford to win a tight one: 27 to 24.
Week 9 Game of the Week:
UCLA @ Oregon – Oregon finally gets a true test. But it’s in Eugene, and it’s against a UCLA team that was exposed against Stanford. UCLA will desperately try to slow things down (I put the over/under on fake injuries at 4.5), but won’t have any luck. The Ducks are just firing on all cylinders and then get a week off for the huge Thursday November 7th match-up against Stanford. Oregon 62 UCLA 41.
Until next time…
Since I didn’t watch much this weekend, let’s get straight to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (7-0) – Now it’s time to see what you’re made of, with UCLA and Stanford as your next two opponents.
#2 Ohio State (7-0) – The easiest road to undefeated territory; though, we saw what happened to Louisville.
#3 Alabama (7-0) – Even after giving up 42 to A&M, you’re back to the #1 scoring defense in the land.
#4 Florida State (6-0) – Destroyed Clemson. Undefeated Miami coming up in two weeks. Don’t forget about NC State!!!
#5 Missouri (7-0) – Who had Mizzou with a two game lead in the SEC East after week 8?
#6 Miami (6-0) – Living dangerously.
#7 Stanford (6-1) – Want that Utah game back?
#8 Texas Tech (7-0) – Flavor of the week in the Big 12.
#9 Clemson (6-1) – The Georgia win isn’t as impressive now, is it?
#10 Fresno State (6-0) – Sure, why not? Lots of teams ranked above you are guaranteed to lose.
Rising Fast:
Auburn – All of the sudden, the Iron Bowl looks to be Alabama’s most difficult remaining game.
Falling Faster:
Top-10 teams – Not a good week, unless you’re Oregon, Ohio State, Alabama, and Florida State.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota – Boyd failed his test against Florida State. Let’s see how Mariota and company do against UCLA and Stanford.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Sticking with it, as Ohio State still has the easier road compared to Alabama or Florida State. But okay, I really want to see Oregon/Alabama, as I think most people do.
Week 9 Big Games:
Tennessee @ Alabama – Alabama shouldn’t be 28 point favorites in this game. Not for the third weekend in October, or whatever all the freaks in the south celebrate. ‘Bama wins, but not by 4 TDs. Alabama 31 Tennessee 17.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma – Big 12 is still wide open, but Tech can create some more breathing room if they can go into Norman and get a victory. But they can’t. Oklahoma with a chance to get back into the Big 12 race with a big victory: 38 to 35.
South Carolina @ Missouri – Missouri is one of the big surprises of the season – a two game lead in the SEC East. South Carolina is one of the disappointments of the season – two losses already, with Missouri, Florida, and Clemson still on the schedule. But, Missouri has no business winning this game. Then again, they had no business beating Georgia or Florida either. Let’s see if Mizzou can’t keep it going: 34 to 24.
Stanford @ Oregon State – Oregon State’s rattled off six straight since they lost to Eastern Washington in week one. And, they won @ Utah, something Stanford couldn’t do. The Beaver’s are also first in the nation in passing, and ninth in points/game. Stanford’s defense will be tested, but I think the Utah loss really has them refocused. Let’s look for Stanford to win a tight one: 27 to 24.
Week 9 Game of the Week:
UCLA @ Oregon – Oregon finally gets a true test. But it’s in Eugene, and it’s against a UCLA team that was exposed against Stanford. UCLA will desperately try to slow things down (I put the over/under on fake injuries at 4.5), but won’t have any luck. The Ducks are just firing on all cylinders and then get a week off for the huge Thursday November 7th match-up against Stanford. Oregon 62 UCLA 41.
Until next time…
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
Week 7 Recap and Week 8 Preview
I led last week’s Autumn Wind with this: “The giants will fall – it’s just a matter of when, to whom, and who’s left standing at the end.” Well, the madness that is the end of the college football season has officially started. Stanford, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Michigan all went down, and A&M was trying to figure out a way to lose. And this weekend we’ve a very good UCF team @ Louisville (who hasn’t looked that impressive the last couple of weeks), Florida @ 6-0 Mizzou, undefeated UCLA traveling to the Farm to face a pissed off Stanford team, and of course Florida State at Clemson. The Top-10 was pretty much unchanged until this weekend. Safe to say we’re gonna see some changes again. With the exception of Oregon and Alabama who are both once again 4+ TD favorites.
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 7 Top-10 recap:
1. Texas finally showed up for the Red River Rivalry and took down Oklahoma. Mack Brown has saved his job for now, and don’t look now, but Texas is tied atop the Big 12. Not a bad place to be after week 7. But, it’s been proven so far that no one really wants to win the Big 12, so don’t be surprised if Baylor or Texas Tech wind up winning the conference and their BCS bowl spot.
2. Georgia was living dangerously with that crappy defense all year, and with all of the injuries and with running up against a red hot Missouri team, their number was up. Is Missouri going to compete for the SEC and the BCS? No. Did they actually help sort things out by beating Georgia? Yes. We no longer have to look at Georgia as the best one loss team out there. And, very impressive start by Missouri.
3. Call it a look-ahead game, or call it trouble in the making, but Clemson barely getting by Boston College is not a good sign coming up on the big weekend against Florida State. But, a win is a win no matter what; something Oklahoma, Michigan, Georgia, and Stanford would agree with.
4. Georgia’s loss to Missouri and Florida’s loss to LSU has South Carolina saying “remember us?” The Gamecocks seem to be playing better since they’re not in the spotlight anymore, but that’s soon to change. Maybe Clowney will quit being a baby and start playing like a pro? Otherwise, I think his draft stock is falling faster than….well, I promised years ago, I’d try to keep politics out of the Autumn Wind; so just insert either the House GOP or Obama’s approval rating. Oops. I went there.
5. Speaking of oops, Stanford ran into its match @ Utah. Let’s not be mistaken here, this was an upset, but not a huge one. Utah was only a nine point dog, and they play a similar style as Stanford. I was very high on Stanford this year, but after struggling against Army, and nearly letting ASU come back from a huge deficit, it was clear they weren’t going to compete for a National Championship. They can, however, play spoiler once again, to Oregon in the PAC-12 North.
6. But, Oregon shows no signs of slowing down. And while Washington gave them a game through three quarters, the Ducks finally had to play a fourth quarter; and wound up running away with it again. Oregon is licking its chops (do ducks have chops?) for a match-up against Alabama in the Championship.
7. Despite giving up 42 to A&M, Alabama is back in familiar territory; 2nd in the NCAA in scoring defense and once again in the Top-10 in total defense. I still think LSU is going to beat Alabama, or if not, South Carolina in the SEC Championship, but I do admit that Saban has taken this team to new levels. After the 2010 Championship team, Saban admitted the following year failures were his fault, and that he wouldn’t let that happen again. All he’s done (well, the team) is rattle off two more titles and in contention for a third straight. It’s good to be a Tide fan. But wait, isn’t the third weekend in October coming up?
8. The Michigan & Penn State game was an instant classic, and while Michigan was another undefeated team to lose this weekend, it’s almost like the pollsters saw it coming. The Wolverines kept beating everyone, but never really moved up in the polls. The Penn State program is rebounding incredibly well from the sanctions put in place after that awful situation that I’d rather not talk about.
9. Georgia was living dangerously all year with that great offense, but offensive defense. Now that they’ve lost twice, I declare A&M the new Georgia; they’re flirting with trouble. Sure, it’s fun to watch that offense put up points and come from behind, but eventually, they’ll run into trouble with a defense that can’t stop anyone. Hmmmm….November 23rd @ LSU?
10. Speaking of the Tigers, LSU’s win over Florida wasn’t impressive, but they got the job done. A win is a win, is a win. And LSU has shown they can win shoot-outs (well, except against Georgia), and tight, tough defense match-ups. I know declare you the best one loss team in the country.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (6-0) – Big win on the road.
#2 Ohio State (6-0) – Only 16.5 favorites against Iowa?
#3 Alabama (6-0) – Yeah, yeah; don’t worry, if you take care of business, you’ll be in the Top 2.
#4 Louisville (12-0) – Watch out for UCF!
#5 Clemson (6-0) – Are you about to be the best one loss team in the country?
#6 Florida State (5-0) – If you pull off the victory in Death Valley (sorry LSU), I’m a believer.
#7 LSU (6-1) – I’ve got you beating Alabama, so I gotta get you climbing the polls now.
#8 Texas A&M (5-1) – Imagine if you could’a stopped Alabama once or twice?
#9 Miami (5-0) – Uh, ACC is the second best conference? Where did that come from?
#10 UCLA (5-0) – But, you gotta beat Stanford this weekend, which I’m not sure you can do.
Rising Fast:
Missouri – Where did this come from?
Falling Faster:
Georgia – A ton of injuries, a horrid defense, and an even worse schedule finally caught up with you.
Heisman Watch:
Tajh Boyd, Clemson – Marriota is really sneaking up on you. Can you get another signature win against FSU?
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Sticking with it, and hoping Ohio State loses here soon so we can get the Alabama/Oregon match-up we should’ve had last year.
Week 8 Big Games:
Florida @ Missouri – Florida has its share of injuries, but Missouri’s starting QB is out. Florida’s defense is light years better than Georgia, and Missouri will come out flat after that huge upset last weekend. Gators stay in contention in the SEC East: 27 to 24.
UCLA @ Stanford – UCLA is the undefeated team here; not Stanford. But, Stanford is back at home, and has owned UCLA recently; beating them last year to end the season and turning right around and beating them again in the inaugural PAC-12 Championship. Stanford is the type of team that gives UCLA fits. Kinda like Nebraska, but with an actual defense (sorry, Huskers). Stanford gets back on track: 30 to 24.
Auburn @ Texas A&M – Auburn’s a surprising 5-1, but they really haven’t played anyone other than LSU. A&M is fourth in the nation in scoring, but only 96th in scoring defense. Auburn will score, but they won’t be able to stop Johnny and company. Heck, Auburn gave up 24 to Washington State. A&M will get at least 50. Texas A&M 52 Auburn 27.
Week 8 Game of the Week:
Florida State @ Clemson – Maybe the game of the year so far; with both Florida State and Clemson avoiding their usual random upsets. Florida State comes in fresh off a bye, while Clemson comes in after a struggle against Boston College. Florida State has a much better defense, and Boyd has his match with FSU’s youngster QB Winston. FSU gets the win and propels into the National Championship debate: 45 to 41.
Until next time…
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 7 Top-10 recap:
1. Texas finally showed up for the Red River Rivalry and took down Oklahoma. Mack Brown has saved his job for now, and don’t look now, but Texas is tied atop the Big 12. Not a bad place to be after week 7. But, it’s been proven so far that no one really wants to win the Big 12, so don’t be surprised if Baylor or Texas Tech wind up winning the conference and their BCS bowl spot.
2. Georgia was living dangerously with that crappy defense all year, and with all of the injuries and with running up against a red hot Missouri team, their number was up. Is Missouri going to compete for the SEC and the BCS? No. Did they actually help sort things out by beating Georgia? Yes. We no longer have to look at Georgia as the best one loss team out there. And, very impressive start by Missouri.
3. Call it a look-ahead game, or call it trouble in the making, but Clemson barely getting by Boston College is not a good sign coming up on the big weekend against Florida State. But, a win is a win no matter what; something Oklahoma, Michigan, Georgia, and Stanford would agree with.
4. Georgia’s loss to Missouri and Florida’s loss to LSU has South Carolina saying “remember us?” The Gamecocks seem to be playing better since they’re not in the spotlight anymore, but that’s soon to change. Maybe Clowney will quit being a baby and start playing like a pro? Otherwise, I think his draft stock is falling faster than….well, I promised years ago, I’d try to keep politics out of the Autumn Wind; so just insert either the House GOP or Obama’s approval rating. Oops. I went there.
5. Speaking of oops, Stanford ran into its match @ Utah. Let’s not be mistaken here, this was an upset, but not a huge one. Utah was only a nine point dog, and they play a similar style as Stanford. I was very high on Stanford this year, but after struggling against Army, and nearly letting ASU come back from a huge deficit, it was clear they weren’t going to compete for a National Championship. They can, however, play spoiler once again, to Oregon in the PAC-12 North.
6. But, Oregon shows no signs of slowing down. And while Washington gave them a game through three quarters, the Ducks finally had to play a fourth quarter; and wound up running away with it again. Oregon is licking its chops (do ducks have chops?) for a match-up against Alabama in the Championship.
7. Despite giving up 42 to A&M, Alabama is back in familiar territory; 2nd in the NCAA in scoring defense and once again in the Top-10 in total defense. I still think LSU is going to beat Alabama, or if not, South Carolina in the SEC Championship, but I do admit that Saban has taken this team to new levels. After the 2010 Championship team, Saban admitted the following year failures were his fault, and that he wouldn’t let that happen again. All he’s done (well, the team) is rattle off two more titles and in contention for a third straight. It’s good to be a Tide fan. But wait, isn’t the third weekend in October coming up?
8. The Michigan & Penn State game was an instant classic, and while Michigan was another undefeated team to lose this weekend, it’s almost like the pollsters saw it coming. The Wolverines kept beating everyone, but never really moved up in the polls. The Penn State program is rebounding incredibly well from the sanctions put in place after that awful situation that I’d rather not talk about.
9. Georgia was living dangerously all year with that great offense, but offensive defense. Now that they’ve lost twice, I declare A&M the new Georgia; they’re flirting with trouble. Sure, it’s fun to watch that offense put up points and come from behind, but eventually, they’ll run into trouble with a defense that can’t stop anyone. Hmmmm….November 23rd @ LSU?
10. Speaking of the Tigers, LSU’s win over Florida wasn’t impressive, but they got the job done. A win is a win, is a win. And LSU has shown they can win shoot-outs (well, except against Georgia), and tight, tough defense match-ups. I know declare you the best one loss team in the country.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (6-0) – Big win on the road.
#2 Ohio State (6-0) – Only 16.5 favorites against Iowa?
#3 Alabama (6-0) – Yeah, yeah; don’t worry, if you take care of business, you’ll be in the Top 2.
#4 Louisville (12-0) – Watch out for UCF!
#5 Clemson (6-0) – Are you about to be the best one loss team in the country?
#6 Florida State (5-0) – If you pull off the victory in Death Valley (sorry LSU), I’m a believer.
#7 LSU (6-1) – I’ve got you beating Alabama, so I gotta get you climbing the polls now.
#8 Texas A&M (5-1) – Imagine if you could’a stopped Alabama once or twice?
#9 Miami (5-0) – Uh, ACC is the second best conference? Where did that come from?
#10 UCLA (5-0) – But, you gotta beat Stanford this weekend, which I’m not sure you can do.
Rising Fast:
Missouri – Where did this come from?
Falling Faster:
Georgia – A ton of injuries, a horrid defense, and an even worse schedule finally caught up with you.
Heisman Watch:
Tajh Boyd, Clemson – Marriota is really sneaking up on you. Can you get another signature win against FSU?
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Sticking with it, and hoping Ohio State loses here soon so we can get the Alabama/Oregon match-up we should’ve had last year.
Week 8 Big Games:
Florida @ Missouri – Florida has its share of injuries, but Missouri’s starting QB is out. Florida’s defense is light years better than Georgia, and Missouri will come out flat after that huge upset last weekend. Gators stay in contention in the SEC East: 27 to 24.
UCLA @ Stanford – UCLA is the undefeated team here; not Stanford. But, Stanford is back at home, and has owned UCLA recently; beating them last year to end the season and turning right around and beating them again in the inaugural PAC-12 Championship. Stanford is the type of team that gives UCLA fits. Kinda like Nebraska, but with an actual defense (sorry, Huskers). Stanford gets back on track: 30 to 24.
Auburn @ Texas A&M – Auburn’s a surprising 5-1, but they really haven’t played anyone other than LSU. A&M is fourth in the nation in scoring, but only 96th in scoring defense. Auburn will score, but they won’t be able to stop Johnny and company. Heck, Auburn gave up 24 to Washington State. A&M will get at least 50. Texas A&M 52 Auburn 27.
Week 8 Game of the Week:
Florida State @ Clemson – Maybe the game of the year so far; with both Florida State and Clemson avoiding their usual random upsets. Florida State comes in fresh off a bye, while Clemson comes in after a struggle against Boston College. Florida State has a much better defense, and Boyd has his match with FSU’s youngster QB Winston. FSU gets the win and propels into the National Championship debate: 45 to 41.
Until next time…
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
Week 6 Recap and Week 7 Preview
About half-way through the season, and we’ve yet to see a signature upset (Miami over Florida is probably the closest), though Northwestern, Washington, and Tennessee nearly sent the Top-10 head over heels this weekend. Don’t worry. It’ll happen. It always does. And it always comes out of nowhere. The giants will fall – it’s just a matter of when, to whom, and who’s left standing at the end. I insisted early on that there were going to be multiple undefeated teams at the end of the season, and we’re still at 17 right now. But, we still have Oregon/Stanford/UCLA all playing each other, Alabama/LSU, Clemson/Florida State, Michigan/Ohio State, and Oklahoma/Texas Tech/Baylor all playing each other. But, Louisville still doesn’t play anyone (though they could be playing an undefeated Houston team soon) so even if they go undefeated they can’t get into the Top-2.
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 6 Top-10 recap:
1. Colorado took a page from the Autumn Wind and threw everything they had early at the Ducks. On-side kicks, gimmicks, etc. and actually jumped to a quick lead over Oregon. The problem is Colorado isn’t very good and Oregon is great. Oregon has a dangerous game this weekend at Washington, but UW is coming home after nearly pulling off the upset at the Farm against Stanford. Look for Oregon to roll again.
2. Notre Dame’s defense looked much better against ASU, with six sacks, but they still gave up 34 and needed a strong game from Rees to outscore ASU. Up next, after a bye, is USC. Glad I’ll be hunting that weekend; not sure I can stand the pain of watching Notre Dame lose to a Kiffin-less USC.
3. Georgia is living dangerously because of their defense. It cost ‘em the Clemson game. And, needed a last minute TD to beat LSU is one thing; but needing a last second TD to tie Tennessee is another thing. I still think Georgia is the best one loss team in the country, but that defense has to improve.
4. Ohio State looked a little sluggish in the first half against Northwestern. Not surprising, considering the battle they had last weekend with Wisconsin. Northwestern is a good team, and a win is a win for the Buckeyes. Unlike Louisville, if Ohio State finishes undefeated, they probably deserve to be in the Top 2, unless there’s an unbeaten from the SEC and PAC-12.
5. Anyone that had Florida State on upset alert against Maryland needs to have their college football credentials revoked. 63-0 against an undefeated Maryland team is a statement game. Nice job FSU.
6. We know Oregon’s offense is incredible, but what Baylor is doing is just ridiculous. More than 69 points every game, and something like 700+ yards of offense. Granted, they haven’t played anyone, but the still aren’t gonna play anyone considering they’re into their Big-12 schedule now. Regardless, those offenses are fun to watch.
7. Iowa State got screwed out of a victory over Texas by the replay officials. My two biggest pet peeves in college football right now are defensive pass interference calls when the offensive player is doing as much, if not more than, hand holding with the defense back; and instant replay calls that are clearly missed even after review. If they’re going to waste all of that time, get the right call made. With the technology and dozens of cameras out there, I haven’t seen many, if any, calls that aren’t clearly obviously. Yet mistakes are still made, and in the case of Iowa State this weekend, it cost them the game.
8. There’s been some grumbling that Condi Rice is on the NCAA playoff committee. I don’t get it. She’s smarter than most, very analytical, and is a huge football fan. No sooner than we get rid of the old system and people are already complaining about it. Should we go back to the system where a big percentage of the BCS is determined by a coaches poll where no coaches actually vote in the poll?
9. We’re about mid-way through, so let’s look at the conferences: SEC still reigns supreme, the PAC-12 is climbing, as is the ACC, the Big 10 is about what we thought it would be, the Big 12 is struggling, and the AAC is dead as expected (outside of Louisville). I actually give the nod to the ACC with how well FSU, Clemson, and Miami are playing (including two big wins over Georgia and Florida). SEC a close second, and PAC-12 a very close third. Of course, there’s lots of football to play.
10. Sarkisian definitely has Washington’s program moving in the right direction. Blowing out Boise State and UofSuck and nearly pulling the upset at the Farm in another memorable game of the week. But after a tough, late, loss to Stanford, they have to regroup for Oregon coming to town this weekend. And then heading to ASU the following weekend. Sark’s gotta hold the ship together the next couple of weeks if they’re going to try to stay in the picture in the PAC-12 North.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (4-0) – One of these days, the starters are gonna have to play in the second half. How’s their conditioning?
#2 Ohio State (6-0) – Survived a scare against a very good Northwestern team on the road.
#3 Stanford (5-0) – Yikes. Washington’s supposed to play like crap away from home.
#4 Alabama (5-0) – I know, I know, I’m nuts for having them at number 4.
#5 Louisville (12-0) – You’re toughest remaining game is Houston?
#6 Clemson (5-0) – Outta be scared about that FSU game next weekend.
#7 Georgia (4-1) – Yet another Top-25 opponent on the schedule.
#8 Florida State (5-0) – Okay, maybe you are legit this year.
#9 Oklahoma (5-0) – Is the Red River Rivalry even a rivalry anymore?
#10 LSU (5-1) – Your schedule doesn’t get any easier.
Rising Fast:
Virginia Tech – After losing to ‘Bama in week 1 everyone wrote off Beamer and company. They’ve rattled off five straight wins, and their schedule is favorable with only a road trip to Miami in November looking like a challenge. 10+ wins for this Va Tech team would be impressive.
Falling Faster:
Texas – They needed help from the refs to beat Iowa State, and they still have Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Baylor; not to mention games @ TCU and @ West Virginia. I’m not sure Mack Brown survives the season, and if another blow out happens in the Red River Rivalry, he may be done this weekend.
Heisman Watch:
Tajh Boyd, Clemson – I still like Boyd, but it’s gonna come down to how he does versus Florida State versus how Mariotta (Oregon) does versus Stanford. Mariotta has yet to need to play in a fourth quarter, and that’s hurt him – but 7 TDs in 2.5 quarters never hurts.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Or give me Oregon versus an SEC team. Oregon wins either way.
Week 7 Big Games:
Missouri @ Georgia – Missouri comes in at a surprising 5-0, and Georgia’s defense continues to show big holes. But, they’re back in Athens and Missouri won’t be able to keep up with the Dawgs offense. Georgia 45 Mizzou 27.
Oklahoma v. Texas – The Red River Rivalry has gone from a BCS-playoff-esque matchup to seeing how bad Oklahoma can beat Texas. Mack Brown needs a miracle to keep his job. Ain’t gonna happen this weekend. Oklahoma 52 Texas 38.
Oregon @ Washington – Washington probably has the best chance other than Stanford to beat the Ducks this year. But, Washington is going to be flat following the emotional loss to Stanford. And you can’t spot Oregon any points and expect to catch up. Ducks keep rolling: 52 to 31.
Week 7 Game of the Week:
Florida @ LSU – LSU’s offense versus Florida’s defense in this one. LSU’s scored 35+ and racked up 400+ yards in their first six games for the first time ever. But Florida’s defense is only giving up 217 yards/game and 12 points/game. But that’s come against Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Not exactly LSU or Alabama or A&M offenses. LSU doesn’t lose at home, winning 28 outta 29 (losing to Alabama last year), and their offense just has too many weapons. LSU 24 Florida 13.
Until next time…
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 6 Top-10 recap:
1. Colorado took a page from the Autumn Wind and threw everything they had early at the Ducks. On-side kicks, gimmicks, etc. and actually jumped to a quick lead over Oregon. The problem is Colorado isn’t very good and Oregon is great. Oregon has a dangerous game this weekend at Washington, but UW is coming home after nearly pulling off the upset at the Farm against Stanford. Look for Oregon to roll again.
2. Notre Dame’s defense looked much better against ASU, with six sacks, but they still gave up 34 and needed a strong game from Rees to outscore ASU. Up next, after a bye, is USC. Glad I’ll be hunting that weekend; not sure I can stand the pain of watching Notre Dame lose to a Kiffin-less USC.
3. Georgia is living dangerously because of their defense. It cost ‘em the Clemson game. And, needed a last minute TD to beat LSU is one thing; but needing a last second TD to tie Tennessee is another thing. I still think Georgia is the best one loss team in the country, but that defense has to improve.
4. Ohio State looked a little sluggish in the first half against Northwestern. Not surprising, considering the battle they had last weekend with Wisconsin. Northwestern is a good team, and a win is a win for the Buckeyes. Unlike Louisville, if Ohio State finishes undefeated, they probably deserve to be in the Top 2, unless there’s an unbeaten from the SEC and PAC-12.
5. Anyone that had Florida State on upset alert against Maryland needs to have their college football credentials revoked. 63-0 against an undefeated Maryland team is a statement game. Nice job FSU.
6. We know Oregon’s offense is incredible, but what Baylor is doing is just ridiculous. More than 69 points every game, and something like 700+ yards of offense. Granted, they haven’t played anyone, but the still aren’t gonna play anyone considering they’re into their Big-12 schedule now. Regardless, those offenses are fun to watch.
7. Iowa State got screwed out of a victory over Texas by the replay officials. My two biggest pet peeves in college football right now are defensive pass interference calls when the offensive player is doing as much, if not more than, hand holding with the defense back; and instant replay calls that are clearly missed even after review. If they’re going to waste all of that time, get the right call made. With the technology and dozens of cameras out there, I haven’t seen many, if any, calls that aren’t clearly obviously. Yet mistakes are still made, and in the case of Iowa State this weekend, it cost them the game.
8. There’s been some grumbling that Condi Rice is on the NCAA playoff committee. I don’t get it. She’s smarter than most, very analytical, and is a huge football fan. No sooner than we get rid of the old system and people are already complaining about it. Should we go back to the system where a big percentage of the BCS is determined by a coaches poll where no coaches actually vote in the poll?
9. We’re about mid-way through, so let’s look at the conferences: SEC still reigns supreme, the PAC-12 is climbing, as is the ACC, the Big 10 is about what we thought it would be, the Big 12 is struggling, and the AAC is dead as expected (outside of Louisville). I actually give the nod to the ACC with how well FSU, Clemson, and Miami are playing (including two big wins over Georgia and Florida). SEC a close second, and PAC-12 a very close third. Of course, there’s lots of football to play.
10. Sarkisian definitely has Washington’s program moving in the right direction. Blowing out Boise State and UofSuck and nearly pulling the upset at the Farm in another memorable game of the week. But after a tough, late, loss to Stanford, they have to regroup for Oregon coming to town this weekend. And then heading to ASU the following weekend. Sark’s gotta hold the ship together the next couple of weeks if they’re going to try to stay in the picture in the PAC-12 North.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (4-0) – One of these days, the starters are gonna have to play in the second half. How’s their conditioning?
#2 Ohio State (6-0) – Survived a scare against a very good Northwestern team on the road.
#3 Stanford (5-0) – Yikes. Washington’s supposed to play like crap away from home.
#4 Alabama (5-0) – I know, I know, I’m nuts for having them at number 4.
#5 Louisville (12-0) – You’re toughest remaining game is Houston?
#6 Clemson (5-0) – Outta be scared about that FSU game next weekend.
#7 Georgia (4-1) – Yet another Top-25 opponent on the schedule.
#8 Florida State (5-0) – Okay, maybe you are legit this year.
#9 Oklahoma (5-0) – Is the Red River Rivalry even a rivalry anymore?
#10 LSU (5-1) – Your schedule doesn’t get any easier.
Rising Fast:
Virginia Tech – After losing to ‘Bama in week 1 everyone wrote off Beamer and company. They’ve rattled off five straight wins, and their schedule is favorable with only a road trip to Miami in November looking like a challenge. 10+ wins for this Va Tech team would be impressive.
Falling Faster:
Texas – They needed help from the refs to beat Iowa State, and they still have Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Baylor; not to mention games @ TCU and @ West Virginia. I’m not sure Mack Brown survives the season, and if another blow out happens in the Red River Rivalry, he may be done this weekend.
Heisman Watch:
Tajh Boyd, Clemson – I still like Boyd, but it’s gonna come down to how he does versus Florida State versus how Mariotta (Oregon) does versus Stanford. Mariotta has yet to need to play in a fourth quarter, and that’s hurt him – but 7 TDs in 2.5 quarters never hurts.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Or give me Oregon versus an SEC team. Oregon wins either way.
Week 7 Big Games:
Missouri @ Georgia – Missouri comes in at a surprising 5-0, and Georgia’s defense continues to show big holes. But, they’re back in Athens and Missouri won’t be able to keep up with the Dawgs offense. Georgia 45 Mizzou 27.
Oklahoma v. Texas – The Red River Rivalry has gone from a BCS-playoff-esque matchup to seeing how bad Oklahoma can beat Texas. Mack Brown needs a miracle to keep his job. Ain’t gonna happen this weekend. Oklahoma 52 Texas 38.
Oregon @ Washington – Washington probably has the best chance other than Stanford to beat the Ducks this year. But, Washington is going to be flat following the emotional loss to Stanford. And you can’t spot Oregon any points and expect to catch up. Ducks keep rolling: 52 to 31.
Week 7 Game of the Week:
Florida @ LSU – LSU’s offense versus Florida’s defense in this one. LSU’s scored 35+ and racked up 400+ yards in their first six games for the first time ever. But Florida’s defense is only giving up 217 yards/game and 12 points/game. But that’s come against Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Not exactly LSU or Alabama or A&M offenses. LSU doesn’t lose at home, winning 28 outta 29 (losing to Alabama last year), and their offense just has too many weapons. LSU 24 Florida 13.
Until next time…
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
Week 5 Recap and Week 6 Preview
Week 5 in the books, and not much has changed: Alabama found its defense and USC is still 100% behind Lame Kiffin (or not). Please Nebraska, please. Don’t even consider it.
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 5 Top-10 recap:
1. Alabama’s defense was very impressive in the 25-0 win over Ole Miss, but the same thing that plagued Alabama two years ago showed its face again. Failure to convert drives into points. Kicking FG won’t cut it against LSU; their last big game before a potential SEC Championship, and it comes after a bye. Georgia State and Chattanooga are still on the schedule? Really?
2. What’s impressed me more about Oregon this year compared to previous years is how they’re putting away teams early. They’d always go on their patented 3-4 TD run, but sometimes it wouldn’t happen until the 3rd or even 4th quarters. Now it is happening in the 1st quarter. A good test is going to be to see how Washington deals with Stanford this weekend and Oregon next weekend. If I were to game plan against Oregon, it would be this: I’d go for it on 4th down every time (unless it was 20+ yards). An 80 yard field is actually easier for the Ducks than a 25 yard field. I’d on-side kick following every score, even though they’d know it’s coming after the first and second time. The only way to beat Oregon is to increase your chances of having way more possessions than in a normal game. I dare Washington to try that. UCLA too. Stanford can potentially slow things down like they did last year, but I don’t see a loss on the Ducks schedule.
3. While Alabama tried to regain the SEC’s defensive reputation, the rest of the conference has not. Sure, there’s some incredible offenses out there, but the defenses are just horrible: A&M, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, etc., I’m looking at you.
4. Call it looking ahead, or call it something that happens every year, but Florida State is better than a 3-point first quarter against Boston College. Sure they’ve Maryland and Clemson coming up, but to be considered a serious National Championship contender, you can’t really struggle with a team that only scored seven points against USC.
5. With Oklahoma State’s loss at Morgantown, the Big-12 is wide open. Seven teams have a legitimate shot at winning the conference, and it appears right now that Oklahoma is the team to beat. But don’t count out Baylor, Tech, WestbyGod, TCU, Okie State, and even Texas.
6. The big difference between this year’s Notre Dame squad, and last year’s is that the offense has been putting the Irish in bad positions all year. You can’t spot Oklahoma 14 points in the first two minutes as a result of crappy offense, and not come close to stopping Michigan at all, and still expect the defense to work miracles. Rees is probably on pace to set records for worst completion % of all time (currently sitting at 53%).
7. Stanford rolling on all cylinders after looking flat against San Jose State and Army. The defense (specifically against the rush) is one of the best in the nation, and the offense continues to be efficient with both the run and the pass. Let’s see how they do against Washington this weekend in a revenge game – remember Washington upset Stanford last year in an ugly game.
8. The Buckeyes survived against Wisconsin, and I still think they’ll finish #2 in the country if they win out. Will they have a hangover game @ Northwestern this weekend? Hmmmm, I wonder what the first hlaf spread is? And, if Georgia is the best one loss team in the country, Wisconsin is by far the best two loss team in the country – the should’a-been-a-victory against ASU, and a close road loss at the Horseshoe.
9. ASU scored 42 in the 2nd half against USC. Lame Kiffin was greeted at the gate after the flight home to be fired in person. I wonder when he saw them on the tarmac if he was thinking the AD and President were still 100% behind him? ASU has certainly found its offense. In the last six quarters, they’ve put up 90 points against Stanford and USC, and this weekend they have the national spotlight against Notre Dame.
10. Five weeks in, and the game of the weeks have been great every week (unless you turned off the ASU/Stanford game at half-time last weekend). Georgia/LSU was another wonderful match-up of two really talented well-coached teams. After Georgia scored with a shade under two minutes left, I thought “uh oh” – this one really had the feeling of “last one with the ball, wins.” Georgia came up with a key stop, and Georgia continues to be the best one loss team in the country, with their sights set on a rematch with Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (4-0) – The Ducks liked playing in the rain? Shocking…
#2 Ohio State (5-0) – Passed test #1.
#3 Stanford (4-0) – If they spank Washington like they spanked UofSuck, look out Ducks!
#4 Alabama (4-0) – Okay, you’re good, we get that.
#5 Louisville (12-0) – Played anyone yet?
#6 Clemson (4-0) – Remember us?
#7 Georgia (3-1) – Oh to have that Clemson game back…
#8 Florida State (2-0) – Look out for the Fighting Turtles!
#9 Oklahoma (4-0) – I guess you’re the best in the Big 12. For now.
#10 LSU (4-1) – You’re loss was to the best one loss team in football; and you had the ball last in a shootout against a crappy defense where you could’a won it. Would’a, could’a, should’a.
Rising Fast:
Baylor – First in nation in scoring at 70/game and second in the nation in scoring defense at 7.7/game. Okay, sure, they’ve only played Wofford, Buffalo, and Louisiana-Monroe; but – look at their next four: West Virginia, @ Kansas State, v. Iowa State, and @ Kansas. They’ll be 7-0 (and maybe still averaging 70/game) when Oklahoma comes to town on November 7th.
Falling Faster:
USC – Nothing makes me happier than USC sucking it up and Kiffin out of a job. UConn’s looking for a coach, Lane!
Heisman Watch:
Tajh Boyd, Clemson – 311 yards, 3 TDs, and QBR of 91.0. In three quarters.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – It’s all coming together…now, LSU just needs to beat Alabama then lose to A&M the next game, and then A&M needs to lose to Ole Miss this weekend, and then Georgia needs to lose to Florida, and then….wait a minute; how exactly is the SEC Champion not going to get in the BCS Championship again? Oops.
Week 6 Big Games:
Maryland @ Florida State – Maryland is 4-0 and shut out West Virginia (who then beat Big 12 favorite Oklahoma Stat). Florida State looked great until they actually played someone, and then they found themselves in a hole against Boston College. This is the makings of a trap game with Florida State @ Clemson next. But, they have a bye week after this, so not a true trap. Florida State will struggle early again, but pull away in the end: FSU 31 Maryland 20.
Arizona State v. Notre Dame – At the beginning of the season, this one looked winnable for Notre Dame. Not anymore. ASU has been impressive on offense, even in their loss to Stanford, and their defensive line – led by Will Sutton – is going to force Tommy Rees into even more mistakes. ASU 34 Notre Dame 27
Ohio State @ Northwestern – Northwestern is a little overvalued. Sure, they’re 4-0, but that’s been against Cal, Syracuse, Western Michigan, and Maine. But, GameDay’s coming to town, and Ohio State is going to be a little flat early on after the big win against Wisconsin. Northwestern will jump ahead early, but they’re just not in the same picture as Ohio State. Buckeyes roll in the 2nd half: Ohio State 41 Northwestern 31.
Week 6 Game of the Week:
Washington @ Stanford – Revenge game for Stanford, but Washington is also better than they were last year. But, Washington just doesn’t play that well away from home. Stanford’s similar to last year’s Notre Dame team, in that their front seven control the game; but their offense hasn’t missed much of beat since Luck and the crew of NFL tight ends and backs left. Stanford with a big win: 31 to 17.
Until next time…
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 5 Top-10 recap:
1. Alabama’s defense was very impressive in the 25-0 win over Ole Miss, but the same thing that plagued Alabama two years ago showed its face again. Failure to convert drives into points. Kicking FG won’t cut it against LSU; their last big game before a potential SEC Championship, and it comes after a bye. Georgia State and Chattanooga are still on the schedule? Really?
2. What’s impressed me more about Oregon this year compared to previous years is how they’re putting away teams early. They’d always go on their patented 3-4 TD run, but sometimes it wouldn’t happen until the 3rd or even 4th quarters. Now it is happening in the 1st quarter. A good test is going to be to see how Washington deals with Stanford this weekend and Oregon next weekend. If I were to game plan against Oregon, it would be this: I’d go for it on 4th down every time (unless it was 20+ yards). An 80 yard field is actually easier for the Ducks than a 25 yard field. I’d on-side kick following every score, even though they’d know it’s coming after the first and second time. The only way to beat Oregon is to increase your chances of having way more possessions than in a normal game. I dare Washington to try that. UCLA too. Stanford can potentially slow things down like they did last year, but I don’t see a loss on the Ducks schedule.
3. While Alabama tried to regain the SEC’s defensive reputation, the rest of the conference has not. Sure, there’s some incredible offenses out there, but the defenses are just horrible: A&M, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, etc., I’m looking at you.
4. Call it looking ahead, or call it something that happens every year, but Florida State is better than a 3-point first quarter against Boston College. Sure they’ve Maryland and Clemson coming up, but to be considered a serious National Championship contender, you can’t really struggle with a team that only scored seven points against USC.
5. With Oklahoma State’s loss at Morgantown, the Big-12 is wide open. Seven teams have a legitimate shot at winning the conference, and it appears right now that Oklahoma is the team to beat. But don’t count out Baylor, Tech, WestbyGod, TCU, Okie State, and even Texas.
6. The big difference between this year’s Notre Dame squad, and last year’s is that the offense has been putting the Irish in bad positions all year. You can’t spot Oklahoma 14 points in the first two minutes as a result of crappy offense, and not come close to stopping Michigan at all, and still expect the defense to work miracles. Rees is probably on pace to set records for worst completion % of all time (currently sitting at 53%).
7. Stanford rolling on all cylinders after looking flat against San Jose State and Army. The defense (specifically against the rush) is one of the best in the nation, and the offense continues to be efficient with both the run and the pass. Let’s see how they do against Washington this weekend in a revenge game – remember Washington upset Stanford last year in an ugly game.
8. The Buckeyes survived against Wisconsin, and I still think they’ll finish #2 in the country if they win out. Will they have a hangover game @ Northwestern this weekend? Hmmmm, I wonder what the first hlaf spread is? And, if Georgia is the best one loss team in the country, Wisconsin is by far the best two loss team in the country – the should’a-been-a-victory against ASU, and a close road loss at the Horseshoe.
9. ASU scored 42 in the 2nd half against USC. Lame Kiffin was greeted at the gate after the flight home to be fired in person. I wonder when he saw them on the tarmac if he was thinking the AD and President were still 100% behind him? ASU has certainly found its offense. In the last six quarters, they’ve put up 90 points against Stanford and USC, and this weekend they have the national spotlight against Notre Dame.
10. Five weeks in, and the game of the weeks have been great every week (unless you turned off the ASU/Stanford game at half-time last weekend). Georgia/LSU was another wonderful match-up of two really talented well-coached teams. After Georgia scored with a shade under two minutes left, I thought “uh oh” – this one really had the feeling of “last one with the ball, wins.” Georgia came up with a key stop, and Georgia continues to be the best one loss team in the country, with their sights set on a rematch with Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (4-0) – The Ducks liked playing in the rain? Shocking…
#2 Ohio State (5-0) – Passed test #1.
#3 Stanford (4-0) – If they spank Washington like they spanked UofSuck, look out Ducks!
#4 Alabama (4-0) – Okay, you’re good, we get that.
#5 Louisville (12-0) – Played anyone yet?
#6 Clemson (4-0) – Remember us?
#7 Georgia (3-1) – Oh to have that Clemson game back…
#8 Florida State (2-0) – Look out for the Fighting Turtles!
#9 Oklahoma (4-0) – I guess you’re the best in the Big 12. For now.
#10 LSU (4-1) – You’re loss was to the best one loss team in football; and you had the ball last in a shootout against a crappy defense where you could’a won it. Would’a, could’a, should’a.
Rising Fast:
Baylor – First in nation in scoring at 70/game and second in the nation in scoring defense at 7.7/game. Okay, sure, they’ve only played Wofford, Buffalo, and Louisiana-Monroe; but – look at their next four: West Virginia, @ Kansas State, v. Iowa State, and @ Kansas. They’ll be 7-0 (and maybe still averaging 70/game) when Oklahoma comes to town on November 7th.
Falling Faster:
USC – Nothing makes me happier than USC sucking it up and Kiffin out of a job. UConn’s looking for a coach, Lane!
Heisman Watch:
Tajh Boyd, Clemson – 311 yards, 3 TDs, and QBR of 91.0. In three quarters.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – It’s all coming together…now, LSU just needs to beat Alabama then lose to A&M the next game, and then A&M needs to lose to Ole Miss this weekend, and then Georgia needs to lose to Florida, and then….wait a minute; how exactly is the SEC Champion not going to get in the BCS Championship again? Oops.
Week 6 Big Games:
Maryland @ Florida State – Maryland is 4-0 and shut out West Virginia (who then beat Big 12 favorite Oklahoma Stat). Florida State looked great until they actually played someone, and then they found themselves in a hole against Boston College. This is the makings of a trap game with Florida State @ Clemson next. But, they have a bye week after this, so not a true trap. Florida State will struggle early again, but pull away in the end: FSU 31 Maryland 20.
Arizona State v. Notre Dame – At the beginning of the season, this one looked winnable for Notre Dame. Not anymore. ASU has been impressive on offense, even in their loss to Stanford, and their defensive line – led by Will Sutton – is going to force Tommy Rees into even more mistakes. ASU 34 Notre Dame 27
Ohio State @ Northwestern – Northwestern is a little overvalued. Sure, they’re 4-0, but that’s been against Cal, Syracuse, Western Michigan, and Maine. But, GameDay’s coming to town, and Ohio State is going to be a little flat early on after the big win against Wisconsin. Northwestern will jump ahead early, but they’re just not in the same picture as Ohio State. Buckeyes roll in the 2nd half: Ohio State 41 Northwestern 31.
Week 6 Game of the Week:
Washington @ Stanford – Revenge game for Stanford, but Washington is also better than they were last year. But, Washington just doesn’t play that well away from home. Stanford’s similar to last year’s Notre Dame team, in that their front seven control the game; but their offense hasn’t missed much of beat since Luck and the crew of NFL tight ends and backs left. Stanford with a big win: 31 to 17.
Until next time…
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