Bowl Preview Edition - Part II

And here’s part duex of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview Edition! Enjoy!

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPN2
Georgia v. Nebraska

The first bowl game of 2014 gives us a rematch of a bowl game from last season. Georgia is beaten up and Pelini keeps begging Nebraska to fire him. Both teams played a ton of close games this year, including several that weren’t decided until the final minutes (and how different of a bowl picture are we seeing if Auburn doesn’t beat Georgia on that bizarre hail mary?). So, look for a close game here. In these cases I always have to pick the SEC over the Big 10. Sorry Nebraska.

Gambling angle: The SEC has beaten the Big 10 in three straight here, but underdogs have also covered two out of the last three. I like Georgia to win, but not by nine; let’s take Nebraska +9 and the over 60.5 as both defenses have struggled all year.

Heart of Dallas Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPNU
North Texas v. UNLV

Last year we were graced with Oklahoma State and Purdue in the “Used to be Ticket City Bowl” and now we get North Texas and UNLV? Yikes. And it’s in the time slot competing with Georgia/Nebraska, which means no one will watch it. North Texas is pretty much at home, so they’ll win this one.

Gambling angle: No strong trends here for such a young bowl game, so I like North Texas -6.5 and the under 54.5.

Outback Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ESPN
LSU v. Iowa

The Outback Bowl is turning into one of my favorite bowls of the year. It always matches up Big 10 versus SEC teams. But top tier teams from each conference, not the stragglers that the Gator Bowl and others get. And, usually on paper the SEC team is supposed to be the dominant team. But looking back 20+ years, the SEC is only 12-9 against the Big 10 here. And remember Michigan State’s shocking upset of Georgia two years ago and Michigan’s near upset of South Carolina last year? LSU and injured and deflated, and Iowa surprised all with an eight win season. I’m smelling an upset here…

Gambling angle: The Big-10 has covered or tied the spread eight of the last 11 Outback bowls (as it’s usually a motivated Big-10 team and an unmotivated SEC team), so I like Iowa +7.5 the under 49.

Capital One Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ABC
South Carolina v. Wisconsin

Another good Big 10/SEC match up here, with solid defenses and smash mouth offenses. After the unexpected loss @ Tennessee, South Carolina has rattled off five straight wins, including victories against #5 Missouri and #6 Clemson. Wisconsin’s three losses were really only two (@ Ohio State and v. Penn State) as they should’ve beaten ASU on the road if the refs don’t blow it. If they do make that chip shot field goal, they’re probably closer to a Top-10 ranking. South Carolina is only giving up 20 points a game and Wisconsin on 15, so points will be at a premium. South Carolina has the momentum, and in a Big 10/SEC match up, I usually will pick the SEC, especially if it’s a hungry team. South Carolina by a FG.

Gambling angle: Five of the last eight have played under, and that seems appropriate with these defenses, so I like the under 51. The game is a pick ‘em, and I gotta go with South Carolina.

Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO – Jan. 1, 5:00pm EST ESPN
Michigan State v. Stanford

The 100th Rose Bowl takes place this year, and with these two teams, it looks similar to the matchup from 100 years ago. Points will be at a premium, but off-tackle right FB dives will not be. Stanford’s style lends itself to close games, and Michigan State’s defense is about the best in the land so this will be a close, low scoring game. I still don’t know how/why Stanford lost to Utah, but Stanford beat Notre Dame and Notre Dame beat Michigan State. That’s enough for me to pick the Cardinal in this one.

Gambling angle: The Big 10 has only won this game once since 2000, but the last three have been close, decided by a total of 15 points. Favorites tend to do well in Pasadena, so I like Stanford -4.5 and the under 42.5.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl – Jan. 1, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Baylor v. UCF

How many had Baylor and UCF in their preseason prediction for the Fiesta Bowl? Thought so. UCF comes in after winning the AAC, and their only loss was by a FG to South Carolina. But, the problem is, they had several other close calls; seven of their wins were decided by seven or less. That won’t bode well against the #1 offense in the country. Baylor, in a rout.

Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered four of the last six Fiesta Bowls, but the two that didn’t cover were when Kansas State was overmatched with Oregon last year and UConn got stuck with Oklahoma a couple years ago. Even though Baylor’s spread is the highest of the bowls this year, I like them to light things up. Baylor -16.5 and the over 68 is the play here.

Allstate Sugar Bowl – Jan. 2, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Alabama v. Oklahoma

After two years of bad match-ups, the Sugar Bowl gets a dream pairing of Alabama and Oklahoma. Alabama should be playing for the National Championship (again) and Oklahoma rebounded after the embarrassing loss to Baylor with their upset over Oklahoma State in the final game of the year to grab an at-large BCS bid. Alabama is a huge favorite, and rightfully so, but you do have to remember the last time an Alabama team wound up in the Sugar Bowl after a heartbreaking loss to close the season. Utah smacked them upside the head in the 2009 Sugar Bowl, winning 31-17. But, the Texas rumors are kaput, and Saban needs a win here to keep the recruiting train running through Tuscaloosa. Speaking of running, Alabama is 45-1 under A.J. McCarron when they rush for 125+ yards and only 4-5 when they don’t, so look for a steady dose of T.J. Yeldon and company. And, this will be the best defense that Oklahoma faces by far, much better than the Texas and Baylor defenses that held Oklahoma to 20 and 12 points in their two losses. ‘Bama wins in a rout.

Gambling angle: 15 is a lot of points to give up, but I’ll do it. Alabama -15 and the under 51.5 as the Tide defense will limit Oklahoma to less than 20 points.

AT&T Cotton Bowl – Jan. 3, 7:30pm EST FOX
Missouri v. Oklahoma State

Old Big 12 foes are at it again in the Cotton Bowl, following up last year’s match up of Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Missouri was the surprise in the SEC this year, and Oklahoma State once again blew a chance at the Big 12 Championship by losing Bedlam (again). Missouri, despite coming out of nowhere, is still one of the most underrated teams in the country, losing only that double O.T. thriller against South Carolina and keeping it pretty darn close against the buzz saw that is Auburn this year. Oklahoma State will score, but they won’t be able to score enough to overcome the Tigers. I like Missouri in a shootout.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 9-1 straight up over the Big-12 in this game. That will continue, and I like Missouri -1 and the over has hit two out of the last three here, so I gotta take the over 60.5 with these two offenses.

Discover Orange Bowl – Jan. 3, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Ohio State v. Clemson

Ohio State was one win away from a National Championship and Clemson lost the only two real games they played all year. It’s going to be hard to motivate the Buckeyes, who slipped up against the Spartans in the Big 10 Championship game. There will be lots of offense in this one, and we get to watch Boyd to Watkins one final time. I like Clemson to win this one, if for no other reason than I hate Ohio State.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 7-3 against the spread and the under has hit eight out of 11, and with good reason. Some overvalued BCS teams against some undervalued opponents. Let’s take Clemson +2.5 and the under 67.5.

BBVA Compass Bowl – Jan. 4, 1:00pm EST ESPN
Houston v. Vanderbilt

After 33 games we get Houston and Vanderbilt on January 4th? At least it’s a Saturday and there’s probably something else to do. Vandy’s QB is hurt, and Houston led the nation in turnover margin and takeaways. Houston gets the W.

Gambling angle: Let’s take Houston +3 and the under 54 (again, only because I’m picking lines and O/U’s on every game).

GoDaddy Bowl – Jan. 5, 9:00pm EST ESPN
Ball State v. Arkansas State

They should just change the name of this bowl to the Arkansas State bowl, as this is their third straight visit here. Ball State won 10 games for just the third time in school history, but is 0-7-1 in bowl games. If you’re not doing anything on this Sunday night, go ahead and watch Ball State win their first bowl game.

Gambling angle: Favorites are 8-1-2 against the spread in this game, so let’s look to Ball State -9 and the under 63.5.

Discover BCS National Championship – Jan. 6, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Florida State v. Auburn

The BCS comes to a close, and while Auburn may be the team of destiny, in order to win, they need to defeat a Florida State team that won all of its games by an average score of 53-10 and finished 2nd in the country in scoring and 1st in points allowed (a very rare thing). Auburn needed some magic to get here, the improbable wins in the closing moments against Georgia and Alabama; and then knocking off a very good Missouri team in the SEC Championship. On paper, FSU wins in a rout (especially with how suspect Auburn’s defense is), but there are several factors to consider here, even outside of the destiny talk. FSU hasn’t faced a rushing attack like Auburn. In fact, the one very strong rushing team that FSU played, Boston College, kept it pretty close. FSU didn’t play another close game. How will they do when Auburn not only matches them blow-for-blow early on, but then frustrates the FSU offense by keeping the FSU defense on the field for long drives? Auburn is battle tested and knows how to win close games, but FSU is not. And, of course you can’t ignore the SEC’s 7-game BCS Championship winning streak. And finally, check out these numbers: in the last 10 years the BCS Championship has been played between an undefeated team and a one loss team three times and the one loss team is 3-0, winning all three by 20+ points. And FSU’s strength of schedule is the lowest of any championship team in the last ten years. The three previous lowest (2006 Ohio State, 2007 Ohio State, and 2009 Texas) all lost to SEC teams by more than 14 points. But, the month off will benefit Florida State more than Auburn (who’s relying on a ton of momentum), and Auburn’s Achilles heel is its defense. They’ll score on FSU, but can they hold FSU to under 50? I don’t think so. FSU wins the final BCS Championship, but it comes down to the wire: FSU 52 Auburn 45.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 7-0 straight up and against the spread here, so gotta stick with that (at least for the spread). Auburn +8.5 and the over 67.

Well, that’s it for 2013’s college football season! From all of the editors, statisticians, researchers, and other contributors at the Autumn Wind (oh wait – it’s just me): Happy New Year!

Bowl Preview Edition - Part I

Here’s Part I of the 7th annual edition of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview. I’ll break ‘em all down: 35 bowls, 70 teams, starting December 21st and ending January 6th, including some very intriguing match-ups in non-BCS bowls. Here’s the games, dates, times, TV coverage, and angles (for entertainment purposes only) up to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on December 31st. I’ll post the update for the real bowl games next week. Enjoy the last few weeks of the 2013-2014 college football season!

Gildan New Mexico Bowl – Dec. 21, 2:00pm EST ESPN
Washington State v. Colorado State

A couple of teams new to bowls start off the 2012-2013 bowl season, as Colorado State is bowling for the first time since 2008 and Washington State gets in at 6-6 for the first time since 2003. Keep an eye Kapri Bibbs, the running back no one has heard of. He plays for Colorado State and leads the nation with 28 rushing touchdowns. And Washington State’s defense has been torched by some of the stronger rushing teams in the PAC-12 this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Colorado State pulls the upset.

Gambling angle: This is the 8th New Mexico Bowl – and underdogs have not only covered five of the first seven, but won outright in four of those (and Nevada nearly upset UofSuck as a 10-point dog last year). In addition the over has hit in the last five. Let’s look for Colorado State to cover the +4, perhaps winning outright, and even though the over is at 65, I think they’ll get there as Leach’s pass-happy offense will put some points on the board as well.

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl – Dec. 21, 3:30pm EST ABC
Fresno State v. USC

Fresno State was one win away from busting the BCS, and UCS is on their third coach of the year. The match-up here is Fresno’s high powered offense versus UCS’s stingy defense. And, even though Fresno’s defense is horrible, UCS’s offense is just as bad. I’m excited about the game as it’s pretty rare to have a matchup of two ranked teams this early in the bowl season.

Gambling angle: I like Fresno State +6 (and maybe an outright win) and with ten of the last 15 Vegas Bowl’s hitting the under, I like the under 62 as USC’s offense is bad but their defense is going to keep Fresno in check.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Dec. 21, 5:30pm EST ESPN
Buffalo v. San Diego State

Ohio State destroyed San Diego State, but Buffalo played the Buckeyes pretty close. That was back in September though, and things have obviously changes since then. Three of San Diego State’s wins came in overtime, and another two wins were separated by five points or less and they only beat 2-10 Air Force by seven. December in Idaho will favor Buffalo, so let’s go ahead and pick them.

Gambling angle: No strong trends here: underdogs are 4-3-1 against the spread the last eight here, and half of the last six have played to either the over or the under. The game is a pick ‘em, and lets pick Buffalo and the under 63.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Dec. 21, 9:00pm EST ESPN
Tulane v. Louisiana-Lafayette

We should just change the name of this bowl to the Louisiana-Lafayette bowl as they’re making their third straight appearance (also winning the last two). Both teams lost to South Alabama, so take that for what it’s worth. I should like LA-LF at home, but Joe Montana’s kid (Nick) has led a nice turn around for Tulane’s program that’s only in their 4th bowl game in 30 years.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 5-3 in the past eight and six of the past seven have played over the total. The game’s a pick ‘em, so let’s take Tulane and the over 56.

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl – Dec 23, 2:00pm EST ESPN
East Carolina v. Ohio

If you don’t have anything better to do than watch this game, then go ahead and jump off of a cliff. The most interesting part of this game will be the O/U on Beef ‘O’ Brady commercials. Let’s put it at 9.5.

Gambling angle: This is the 6th Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, somehow it still keeps going. Let’s take ECU -13.5 and the over 61.5, not that anyone will be watching.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl – Dec. 24, 8:00pm ESPN
Boise State v. Oregon State

Peterson won’t be coaching the Broncos, focusing on his upcoming job with Washington. That’s gotta favor Oregon State. As usual, there’s going to massive offense in this game (even more so then usual, thanks to two crappy defenses), so I think we’re looking at a shoot-out. Boise State will win this one in a squeaker.

Gambling angle: Boise State opened -3, but now it’s moved to Oregon State -3, Underdogs have won, and covered, four of the past five here, and seven of the last 11 have played over. I like Boise State +3 and the over 65.

Little Caesars Bowl – Dec. 26, 6:00pm EST ESPN
Pittsburgh v. Bowling Green

I like Little Caesars Pizza. That’s about all I’ll say about this game.

Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered five outta six and under total is 9-5 in last 14 Motor City…errrrr, Little Caesars Bowls. Pitt +5.5 and the under 50, I guess.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – Dec. 26, 9:30pm EST ESPN
Utah State v. Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois was one win away from another BCS game, but they stumbled against Bowling Green. On paper, NIU is a much better team than Utah State, but this is the first of those bowls where you’ve gotta wonder if Northern Illinois will show up to play after going from a likely BCS spot to a pre-New Year’s game. And, Utah State may be the best defense that NIU has seen all year. Utah State pulls the upset in a squeaker.

Gambling angle: The Mountain West has won six of the past seven here, so let’s look for that again. Utah State +1.5 and the under 58, as points will be at a premium in this one.

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman – Dec. 27 2:30pm EST ESPN
Marshall v. Maryland

Remember when Maryland was 4-0 and ranked #25? Well, that week they lost to Florida State 63-0 and proceeded to lose four of their next six (winning their only two in that stretch by a total of four points). They did close with a win against ACC winless NC State to finish 7-5, but it’s 9-4 Marshall that comes into this one with all of the momentum. They had won seven of eight before losing to Rice in the Conference USA Championship Game. Marshall is 1st in the nation in passing and 7th in scoring. The problem is they’re defense gives up more than 40/game. The good news is Maryland only scores ~20/game, so I think Marshall comes out on top.

Gambling angle: All five is this bowl’s history have played to the over; so I like the Marshal -2.5 and the over 61.

Texas Bowl – Dec. 27, 6:00pm EST ESPN
Syracuse v. Minnesota

The old Texas Bowl that was the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas is now back to being just the Texas Bowl. Minnesota’s back here again, after given Texas Tech all they could handle last year. And this Gopher team is much better. Syracuse is a middle of the pack ACC team, so you gotta favor Minnesota in this one.

Gambling angle: Favorites are 7-3-2 against the spread in this bowl so let’s take Minnesota -4; and I like the over 47.5 as well as four of the past six played over.

Fight Hunger Bowl – Dec. 27, 9:30pm EST ESPN
BYU v. Washington

I guess Kraft didn’t fight hunger good enough, so it’s just the Fight Hunger Bowl now. Sarkisian is out as he’s the new USC coach, so good ol’ Tuiasosopo will be coaching for Washington. Washington’s only four losses were to ranked PAC-12 teams (Oregon, Stanford, Arizona State, and UCLA), while BYU beat Texas and played Wisconsin and Notre Dame close, but they also lost to Virginia and Utah. Let’s take Washington.

Gambling angle: Let’s look at Washington -3 and the under 58.5.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Dec. 28, 12:00pm EST ESPN
Rutgers v. Notre Dame

Rutgers needed a late win against South Florida to finish 6-6 and get to a bowl. Notre Dame was up and down all season, and just never really regained the “it” they had last year, despite returning most of their starters. Vegas really likes Notre Dame in this one, but as usual, the number is too high. Notre Dame will win, as Rutgers isn’t very good, but it’s going to be an ugly game.

Gambling angle: I’ll take Rutgers +15.5 and the under 52.5.

Belk Bowl – Dec. 28, 3:20pm EST ESPN
Cincinnati v. North Carolina

This would be a great Sweet 16 matchup, but we’re stuck with a football game instead. Cincy rattled off nine wins under Tuberville, and North Carolina bounced back after a 1-5 start to make a bowl. If the New Era Pinstripe Bowl didn’t bore you enough, this one certainly will.

Gambling angle: Cincy won and covered in this game last year, but they’re a 3-point underdog this year against a middle of the road ACC team. I like Cincy +3 and the over 56.5 (if you haven’t figured it out by now, this gambling “advice” is truly for entertainment purposes. Anyone who bets on this game needs to call 1-800-522-4700 immediately.

Russell Athletic Bowl – Dec. 28, 6:45pm ESPN
Miami v. Louisville

Both of these teams had early National Championship hopes before Louisville lost a heartbreaker to eventual AAC Champion UCF and Miami dropped three straight to Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Duke. This is likely Teddy Bridgewater’s last game for Louisville, and he gets to play it very close to where he played his high school ball in Florida. Louisville’s defense is underrated, and it’s kind of a shame that they’re ranked as low as they are for being a one loss team. Miami was exposed mid-season, and they’ll be exposed in this one as well. Louisville wins big in yet another bowl game.

Gambling angle: The ACC is only 3-7 straight up in this game, and the under is 7-1 the past eight. I really like Louisville -3.5 and the under 55.5.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl – Dec. 28, 10:15pm EST ESPN
Michigan v. Kansas State

Michigan stumbles into this bowl, losing five of seven and has an injured QB. And let’s not forget they almost lost to Akron and UConn. Kansas State started poorly, but has won five of their last six (losing only to BCS-at large Oklahoma in a pretty close game). I’d think Kansas State wins this one handily, but they have lost their last five bowl games, and Michigan occasionally performs extremely well (remember the games against Notre Dame and Ohio State?). But, the injury bug will be too much for Michigan to overcome, and Synder is due for a bowl win.

Gambling angle: The over is 8-3 in this last 11 here, and the Big-12 has won five of seven v. Big-10, so I’ll take Kansas State -3.5 and over 55.5

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl – Dec. 30, 11:45am EST ESPN
Middle Tennessee v. Navy

Navy can run the ball and Middle Tennessee cannot stop the run. That’s this one in a nutshell.

Gambling angle: Rice upset Air Force last year, but I don’t see Middle Tennessee figuring out how to stop Navy’s triple option attack, especially with how porous their defense is. Let’s take Navy -6 and the over 55.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Dec. 30, 3:15pm EST ESPN
Ole Miss v. Georgia Tech

A match-up of 7-5 teams in this one. But, one’s from the SEC and the other from ACC. That means the SEC team wins. Don’t forget Ole Miss beat Texas and LSU this year (but do forget they lost to Mississippi State). Georgia Tech’s signature win was over Duke, but that was early in the season, and regardless of how good Duke is this year, it’s never a good thing to have them as your signature win.

Gambling angle: I like Ole Miss -3 (favorites are 6-2-1 the last nine Music City bowls) and since eight of 12 have played under, I like the under 57.

Valero Alamo Bowl – Dec. 30, 6:45pm EST ESPN
Oregon v. Texas

The Big 12 has owned the PAC-12 in recent history in this game which bodes well for Texas. Oregon struggled down the stretch after getting beat down (again) by Stanford, and Texas rebounded nicely after starting slow. This will also be Mack Brown’s final game at the helm for Texas, ending a stellar career that’s been on the slow decline the last couple of years. But, which Oregon team will show up? The National Championship contender, or the team that lost to Stanford and then more or less declared that they didn’t even care about the Rose Bowl (which of course led to another loss)? And, Texas upset Oregon State in this very game last year. But, the Ducks aren’t the Beavers, and this Texas team isn’t as good as last year’s version. I like Oregon in a shootout.

Gambling angle: Trends for both the spread and O/U are pretty even here, so I gotta go with my gut. Oregon will win, but not by 14. I like Texas +14 and the over 67.

National University Holiday Bowl – Dec. 30, 10:15pm EST ESPN
Arizona State v. Texas Tech

Lots of offense in this one, as the teams combine to average more than 90 passes a game. Tech stumbles in at 7-5, losing five straight in the meat of their conference schedule. Whereas, Arizona State comes in with losing to only two teams: Stanford and Notre Dame, and they easily could’ve beaten the Irish. On paper, this should be all Devils, but what scares me is ASU is 0-3 in the Holiday Bowl, and they had their sights set on the Rose Bowl this year. But, they are a much better team, and their offense will cause lots of problems for Tech’s defense which was exposed in their five game skid against Oklahoma (38), Oklahoma State (52), Kansas State (49), Baylor (63), and Texas (41). ASU should get a Holiday Bowl win finally.

Gambling angle: Interesting angle’s here: the PAC-10 doesn’t win (3-9 straight up), but favorites cover (14-3), which is quite the conundrum as ASU is a 14-point favorite. The over 70 looks good (even though it’s the second highest O/U this bowl season), and I’ll lean towards ASU winning, but Tech covering the +14.

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – Dec. 31, 12:30pm EST ESPN
Arizona v. Boston College

Two of the best running backs in the country face off in this one, and I’m sure you’ll hear the announcers say that a dozen or so times. Boston College’s claim to fame this year was only losing to Florida State by 14. UofSuck’s claim to fame was beating Oregon. They both lost to USC, though BC lost worse. That’s enough for me to pick UofSuck.

Gambling angle: Favorites are 7-3 against the spread and the four of the last five here played under. So let’s take UofSuck -7.5 and under 57 as the clock’s going to move quick in this one.

Hyundai Sun Bowl – Dec. 31, 2:00pm EST CBS
Virginia Tech v. UCLA

UCLA’s offense versus Virginia Tech’s defense will be the highlight here. As usual, Va Tech will bring a stingy defense and attempt a ball controlled offense, but they haven’t seen speed like this UCLA team has. UCLA put up 35 on USC just a couple weeks ago, and I expect them to do the same here.

Gambling angle: I’ll take UCLA -7 and the under 47.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Dec 31, 4:00pm EST ESPN
Rice v. Mississippi State

Mississippi State needed an overtime upset over rival Ole Miss to get to bowl eligibility, and they beat Arkansas in overtime the week before to even make a bowl appearance possible. That’s 0-8 in the SEC, Arkansas, in case you forgot. Rice won 10 games and blew out Marshall in the Conference USA Championship and actually played pretty competitively against A&M early in the season. This is one of the few times I’ll pick against the SEC. Go Rice!

Gambling angle: The underdogs have covered eight out of nine here and the under has hit 10 out of the last 14. So, if I had to put action on this game, Rice +7.5 and the under 50.5

Chick-fil-A Bowl – Dec. 31, 8:00pm EST ESPN
Duke v. Texas A&M

We get to see Johnny Manziel one last time before he heads to a complete failure of a career in the NFL (if RG3 can’t cut it, neither will Mr. Football). Duke’s defense kept them in games (even in the FSU game, they were in it for a couple quarters), and with plenty of rest, let’s look for that to continue. A&M probably pulls it out in the end, but I think it’ll be closer than many think.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 5-3 straight up in the last eight here, but I like Duke +12.5; and let’s take the under 73.5 (highest O/U of the bowls) as Manziel isn’t going to be able to run wild against Duke’s defense (how many just mentally pictured Bobby Hurley slapping the court?).


Well that’s it for the pre-New Year’s Games!

Until next time…

Week 14 Recap and Week 15 Preview

Wow! Rivalry weekend certainly lived up to the hype – many games came down to the wire and Arizona State beat the snot out of UofSuck! Coaches are already starting to shuffle, and there’s renewed debate about who’s #2. I’ll expand on that – who’s #1??

Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 14 Top-10 recap:

1. In my preview of the Auburn/Alabama game, I closed with this: “This one goes down to the wire, and if a bounce or two goes Auburn’s way, they pull off the upset.” The bounces certainly went their way (sans the Alabama 99-yard TD pass). I felt like Saban made some coaching mistakes, but I think part of it started right on the first drive when Alabama missed the FG wide left. It’s almost like Saban felt they were reliving the 2011 LSU game. Still, I have yet to hear a legitimate defense for trying that 56 yard FG with : 01 left. You’ve a Heisman candidate QB, have him toss it to the endzone and hope for a miracle grab or a defensive penalty. Of course, if it does go O.T., there’s no guarantee that Alabama wins (especially with how well Auburn runs the ball in a short field situation, and how bad Alabama’s kicking game was), but it still seems pretty cruel that the dynasty ends on a 109-yard missed FG return against an in-state rival in their building. Though, an Alabama-Auburn rematch in the Championship isn’t completely out of the question (more on that later).

2. In a turnover-filled Civil War, the Beavers matched the Ducks blow for blow, but in the end they just left too much time on the clock for the Oregon offense. Of course, Oregon scored the winning TD with just a 1:09 drive. Great effort by Oregon State though, and I’m glad that Mariota is coming back for Oregon. They’ll be a Top-5 preseason team once again.

3. “The Game” saw its highest scoring matchup since 1902 and Michigan went for two (probably since they wouldn’t let ‘em go for three) and the win after a three TD rally in the 4th quarter. I like the call. You were a huge underdog at home, had all the momentum, and had a chance to knock your rival out of the National Championship Game. And, Ohio State was running the ball at will against Michigan all day, not something you want to go up against in O.T. with a tired defense. But, the pass was intercepted and it looks like Ohio State will be in the BCS Championship if they can get by Michigan State.

4. South Carolina continued its dominance over Clemson, and I’m going to be really curious to watch how Clemson plays in its bowl game. Outside of the Georgia game in week #1, they played two quality teams (FSU and South Carolina) and got blown out by both of them. If Clemson played in the SEC, PAC-12, or Big-12 this year, they’re probably a 3-5 loss team.

5. The best part about the Territorial Cup was Arizona State blowing out UofSuck and grabbing home field advantage for the PAC-12 Championship against Stanford. The worst part? The PAC-12 Network must be owned by UofSuck, because it sucks as much as they do, and hardly anyone got to watch the game. Get it together PAC-12 Network!!

6. Michigan State has now won eight straight, and has a chance to knock Ohio State out of the National Championship picture. Interestingly enough, it looks like Michigan State is headed to Rose Bowl, win or lose as the Rose Bowl would likely grab them up if Ohio State does win and winds up in the National Championship. I’m still not sold on this Sparty team, but they do only have one loss (a close 17-13 contest @ Notre Dame), and they’re defense will always keep them in games (and in some cases, win games).

7. Duke held off North Carolina to win the ACC-Coastal, and with FSU playing Duke in the ACC Championship, and Ohio State playing Michigan State in the Big-12 Championship, the main assumption of there is that FSU-Ohio State will be the BCS Championship match-up. Lots has been said and written about who deserves the #2 slot and who will get stuck in the #3 slot (even though there’s lots of football left to play!). I’ll take it a step further – who deserves to be #1??

8. Let’s debate #1 – FSU is clear favorite atop the polls, but let’s look at their resume: non-con schedule (Nevada, Bethune-Cookman, Idaho, and Florda) – meh. Key wins: Clemson, Maryland, Miami – meh. Closest game: @ Boston College – meh. Overall conference (ACC): double meh. Okay, how about Ohio State: non-con schedule (Buffalo, San Diego State, Cal, Florida A&M): double meh (at least in FSU’s case, Florida is supposed to be good). Key wins: Wisconsin and Northwestern – okay, but not great. Closest games: v. Wisconsin and @ Michigan – okay. Overall conference (Big 10): meh (or even double meh, same # of ranked teams as the ACC). The edge may actually be to Ohio State to be ranked over FSU. So that settles #1 and #2, right? In the words of Corso – not so fast!

9. But here’s where it gets interesting – let’s look at these three one-loss SEC teams: Auburn, Alabama, and Missouri.

Auburn’s non-con schedule (Washington State, Arkansas State, W. Carolina, Florida Atl): meh (though at least Wazzou is going to a bowl). Key wins: Ole Miss, A&M, Georgia, Alabama – wow. Loss: @ LSU in week 4 – okay. Overall conference (SEC): still the best, seven currently ranked teams.

Alabama’s non-con schedule (Virginia Tech, Colorado State, Georgia State, Chattanooga) – meh, though props for scheduling a tough (at least when scheduled) early game and for sprinkling out the cupcakes throughout the year). Key wins: @ A&M, Ole Miss, LSU – pretty good. Loss: @ Auburn (on a 109 missed FG return) – wow.

Missouri’s non-con schedule (Murray State, Toledo, Arkansas State, Indiana) – meh. Key wins: Georgia, Ole Miss, A&M – good. Loss: South Carolina (in 2 O.T.) – wow.

10. So, to close this recap, I will suggest this: if college football had no rankings until today, this is how the teams should be ranked (based on their abilities, momentum, and overall resume): 1) Missouri, 2) Auburn, 3) Alabama, 4) Ohio State, and 5) FSU; which, ironically, is almost the exact opposite of this week’s BCS rankings. But, thankfully, the sun is setting on the BCS, and next year we can be having the argument of who gets left out of the Top-4? In this scenario, I think it would probably be Alabama based on their late loss. Even with a playoff, it’s still going to be better to lose early than late…

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Florida State (12-0) – I hope you get a shot at one of the SEC teams.

#2 Ohio State (11-0) – Just lose to Michigan State and make it easier on everyone.

#3 Missouri (11-1) – Double O.T. loss to South Carolina makes you the most impressive one loss team.

#4 Auburn (11-1) – You beat ‘Bama, so you have to be above them.

#5 Alabama (11-1) – Do you think Saban slept on Saturday night?

#6 Oklahoma State (10-1) – Fiesta Bowl bound.

#7 Baylor (10-1) – Still seeking an at-large bid.

#8 South Carolina (10-2) – Will sadly be left out of an at-large bid.

#9 Michigan State (11-1) – Roses for the Spartans.

#10 Northern Illinois (12-0) – Which bowl do you get clobbered in this year? The Fiesta, I think.

Rising Fast:

Auburn – Two miracle finishes in a row put the Tigers in position for the SEC Championship and a very good case for an appearance in the BCS Championship.

Falling Faster:
UAB – They were up by eight at halftime against So. Miss (a team that was 0-12 last year and 0-11 this year) and ended up losing by 35 and finish the year 2-10.

Heisman Watch:

Jordan Lynch, Northern Illinois – Why not? He’s a 20/20 guy (passing/rushing TDs) and three of the four that have done that in the history of college football have won the Heisman (Tebow, Newton, and Manziel). Northern Illinois is likely going to bust the BCS again, and unlike Winston, Lynch isn’t likely to get busted by the law soon.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Florida State v. Ohio State – I’m still torn on this one, as you can make a case that several of the one loss teams had a much tougher road than these two. But, until we have a playoff, two undefeated teams have largely been rewarded. Let’s pick FSU 45 Ohio State 31.

Week 15 Big Games:

Duke v. Florida State – Duke’s a great story this year, but they’re completely over-matched in this one. Even the most serious of off the field distractions won’t come into play here. FSU 52 Duke 17.

Michigan State v. Ohio State – Michigan State will need their defense to score often to have a chance in this one. But, Ohio State may have some suspensions, and teams often start slow off of a very emotional victory. If Michigan State can put some points on the board early, their defense may be able to hold off the Buckeyes. But not for long enough. Ohio State 27 Michigan State 14.

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State – Bedlam decides the Big-12 Championship. Sort of. If Oklahoma State wins, they win the Conference, if OU pulls the upset then the Baylor/Texas game has some relevance. Oklahoma State always seems to struggle against their big brother, but they’ve got the better team this year, and are at home and are riding high. Oklahoma State 34 Oklahoma 27.

Stanford @ Arizona State – ASU gets Stanford at home in this rematch, but this time ASU is favored. It’s hard to figure out why, especially since Stanford had the Devil’s down 29-0 at halftime earlier this season. But ASU is peaking, and Stanford struggles on the road (losing @ Utah and @ USC and struggling @ Oregon State and even @ Army). A look at both of these teams’ match-ups with Notre Dame show just how evenly matched they are. And, if you look at last year’s PAC-12 Championship (also a re-match), Stanford struggled against UCLA even though the beat them handily the week before. I like ASU to unexpectedly get to the Rose Bowl: 34 to 31.

Week 15 Game of the Week:

Missouri v. Auburn – No surprise that the SEC Championship is once again this week’s game of the week, but it is a surprise that it is Auburn and Missouri facing off. We covered both teams earlier and how they got here and I think this match-up comes down to this – either destiny or borrowed time. Auburn could’ve easily lost their last two while Missouri has just been chugging along. Will Auburn come out flat after back-to-back weeks of emotional victories? Can Missouri’s defense shut down the Auburn running game? Everyone seems to be riding Auburn, so I’m going to do the opposite: Missouri pulls the upset and makes their case for #2: 38 to 31.

Until next time…

Week 13 Recap and Week 14 Preview

Baylor falters and there was much cheering in Ohio. But, the Buckeyes still need to beat the teams from Michigan and hope for some help. Florida may now only be the sixth best team in state of Florida, and we’ve got our match-ups set for the Big 10 and PAC-12 Championship games. Fresno and Northern Illinois are still trying to crash the party, and several one loss teams are still saying “don’t forget about us!” It’s down to the final couple weeks!

Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 13 Top-10 recap:

1. Yet another shutout for Alabama (okay, it was only Chattanooga, but still) and yet another Tide defense leading the league is fewest points allowed at just under 10. Heck, take out the A&M game earlier in the season and Alabama’s only giving up six points a game. You’re just not going to lose with a defense like that. But, I still have FSU ranked ahead of them, as they won’t hold FSU to six, or 10, or maybe even 42. Though, Saban preps for the big one like no other, and if Alabama wants to three-peat, they have three big ones in a row: Iron Bowl, SEC Championship, and BCS Championship.

2. Duke came from behind to beat Wake Forest and now has to beat North Carolina (even Dick Vitale couldn’t have scripted this better) to get to 10 wins and to win the ACC-Coastal.

3. Arizona State’s defense was so tired at the end of the UCLA game that they couldn’t get down in their stance, rush the QB, or even fake an injury to slow down the Bruin offense. But, they did make a couple key plays on back-to-back drives and the Sun Devils clinch that PAC-12 South. If they beat UofSuck this weekend, they’ll host their rematch against Stanford; if not, it’s back to the Farm.

4. So Florida last at home to Georgia Southern. It was their first loss ever to an FCS team, and the Gators have now lost six straight (after being ranked in many peoples' pre-season Top-10). They’re only 1-2 against non-conference teams (soon to be 1-3 when FSU tries to hang a 100 on them) and only 3-5 against the SEC (and that’s because Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas are a combined 1-20 in SEC play; so much for SEC top-to-bottom dominance, eh?). But, check out these stats: Georgia Southern turned it over twice, missed two extra points, completed zero passes (that’s right, zero!), and still won at the Swamp. At least the Gators get to close with FSU who’s still looking for style points. Gulp.

5. After watching Oregon get humiliated by UofSuck, I came to the realization that the Ducks are like a young LeBron James. They have everything needed to win-it-all, except something is missing. Football is easy when you’re scoring 5+ points and blowing people out, but faced with a little adversity and someone willing to hit you in the jaw and Oregon’s crumbled. Whether it’s been against Stanford the last two years, or Auburn in the Championship three years ago, Oregon hasn’t been able to win the games they need to win to put them over the top. But, they’re not a one-shot wonder either. They’ve built a great program, and I do think in the next couple of years they’re going to figure it out.

6. Eight of the 19 Top-25 teams that played this weekend scored 47 or more, and then toss in some unranked teams that went for 58, 80, 45, 49, 59, and 69, and it’s clear that there’s no shortage of offensive output out there. Yet, the Top 3 teams in the country are #1, #2, and #8 in fewest points allowed. Offenses are exciting, but defenses still win championships.

7. Notre Dame’s Jekyll and Hyde season continues. With nothing left to play for (they’re headed to the New Era Pinstripe Bowl regardless), they put together maybe their best effort of the season by beating a pretty good BYU team. Notre Dame has beaten Michigan State and Arizona State (teams that will be representing their divisions in their Conference Championships), a really good USC team (their only loss since they fired Kiffen), and close with Stanford (who will likely win the PAC-12). I don’t think their chances of beating Stanford are good, but it makes you wonder about this team with its quality wins coupled with losses to Pitt and Michigan; and near losses to Navy and Purdue. And of course they got blown out by Oklahoma, who blew out Texas, who lost to the BYU team that Notre Dame just beat.

8. LSU improved to 2-0 against A&M since they joined the SEC, and this stat tells it all: time of possession – LSU: 40:19 A&M 19:41. It’s pretty easy to beat A&M when they’re offense isn’t on the field. I’m predicting a big shake-up in A&M in the offseason with Manziel going the NFL and Sumlin going to USC. But, hey, it was fun while it lasted.

9. November – where spread offenses go to die. We saw it this weekend with Baylor and Oregon looking downright crappy on offense. I don’t know if it’s the long, grueling season; more prep time for defensive coordinators; or back loaded schedules; but November hasn’t been kind to these types of offenses.

10. There are many other rivalry games that aren’t going to be highlighted coming up this weekend but still are worth a mention: The Apple Cup, the Civil War, the Territorial Cup, The Game, The Golden Boot, Battle for the Sunshine State, Clean Ole Fashioned Hate, and The Egg Bowl (and probably a few that I missed). It’s one of my favorite weekends of the year because quite often, the teams that shouldn’t win wind up winning and messing up the end of the season for their rival. I’m sure we’ll see a bunch of upsets this week as well.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Florida State (11-0) – How much longer can the cops drag out their investigation? Oh, probably ‘till mid-January.

#2 Alabama (11-0) – Better record now than the previous two years of your Championship run.

#3 Ohio State (11-0) – Haven’t lost in two years and still no love.

#4 Clemson (10-1) – Need to break the losing streak to South Carolina to get a BCS bid.

#5 Auburn (10-1) – Still an outside chance at the BCS Championship; but very realistic. Beat ‘Bama and A&M/South Carolina, Clemson loses to South Carolina, and Ohio State loses to Michigan or Michigan State, and you’re in!

#6 Oklahoma State (10-1) – It took awhile, but I think my pick to win the Big-12 is finally going to pay off.

#7 Missouri (10-1) – Not as clean of a road as Auburn, but one loss SEC teams have precedent.

#8 Baylor (9-1) – Oops.

#9 South Carolina (9-2) – How the hell did you lose to Tennessee?

#10 Fresno State (10-0) – Rematch with Boise State in the MVC Championship approacheth. Take the over.

Rising Fast:

Arizona State – Clinches the PAC-12 South and gets a rematch with Stanford; at home, if they can beat UofSuck. Of course they should, which, given the history of this series, means they won’t.

Falling Faster:

Oregon – You would’ve though the Ducks would’ve been used to playing in the rain; figuratively and literally.

Heisman Watch:

A.J. McCarron, Alabama – The National writers are starting to lean this way as well.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Alabama v. Florida State – The game every one wants to see. I’m still thinking FSU -6.5.

Week 14 Big Games:

Texas A&M @ Missouri – Missouri wins the SEC-East with a win, or Texas A&M can play spoiler and vault South Carolina into the SEC Championship. Who predicted that at the beginning of the year? A&M has been rattled and beaten all year by good teams, and Missouri is a good team. Look for their winning ways to continue: 38 to 31.

Clemson @ South Carolina – This is the first Top-10 match-up in 111 meetings between these longtime rivals. Lots of people seem to be picking South Carolina in this one. They’ve dominated the series as of late winning four straight, but let’s take a closer look at South Carolina. They lost to Tennessee (UT’s only SEC win), only beat Florida by five and Kentucky by 7; and needed a Willis Reed type miracle from Conner Shaw to beat Missouri in overtime. But, Clemson’s resume isn’t much better: they beat Georgia to open the season and got clobbered by Florida State. That’s about it. Still, you know Clemson (specifically Boyd/Watkins) aren’t going to want to end their careers without a win against South Carolina. This one will be back-and-forth, and I think in many ways will mimic the early Clemson/Georgia game. But I like Clemson in the end: 44 to 38.

Notre Dame @ Stanford – Stanford has won three of four in this series, and Stanford fans will argue that they should’ve won last year. The huge goal-line stand in the driving rain preserved the victory for the Irish and sent them to the National Championship to get destroyed by ‘Bama. This is pretty much the same Stanford team, but a much different Notre Dame team: no T’eo, no Golson, no Eiffert, and now no Louis Nix who is out with a knee injury. Still, Stanford tends to play teams close, as does Notre Dame. Look for Notre Dame to keep this competitive, but that pro-style running game from Stanford will wear them down in the end. Stanford 27 Notre Dame 20.

Week 14 Game of the Week:

Alabama @ Auburn – Let’s not forget the winner of the Iron Bowl has also won the National Championship the last four years, so there’s much more than just the SEC-West on the line. This is only the second Iron Bowl in which both teams are ranked in the Top-5 (Alabama beat Auburn in 1971). Alabama has the experience and Auburn has the energy. It’s fitting of a match-up between the elephant and the tiger. Even during Auburn’s title run in 2010, Alabama dominated this game; well, for the first half, at least; before Auburn stormed back to win 28-27 and go on to win the Championship. I usually pick experience and defense in these types of match-ups, which would clearly favor Alabama. Vegas agrees, with ‘Bama as a 10.5 point favorite. But, check this out: Saban is 0-5 against Auburn teams that finish the season with nine or more wins (and they already have 10 wins). This one goes down to the wire, and if a bounce or two goes Auburn’s way, they pull off the upset. But alas, the bounces have gone ‘Bama’s way for nearly three years, so I can’t bet against that: Alabama 34 Auburn 31.

Until next time…

Week 12 Recap and Week 13 Preview

This weekend gave us the game of the year so far. It was back and forth. One team jumped to a big lead, the other came storming back. And there was a miraculous play on fourth down, and then they finally eeked out a victory. Of course I’m talking about UCF and Temple. Okay, the script in the Georgia/Auburn game played out pretty much the same, but more on that later. The BCS clears up a bit with Stanford losing to USC (how many times have I said that Stanford’s biggest problem is that it’s system is designed for close games) and Ohio State struggling to put Illinois away. It’s still ‘Bama and FSU in 1a/1b, but I’ve got Baylor at #3 now.

Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 12 Top-10 recap:

1. Baylor does it again – falls behind early in the first, then puts it in overdrive and drops 60 on someone. Yet the excuses are still out there. I was guilty of the “well they haven’t played anyone yet.” And now there’s the “well, Texas Tech was overrated and has lost four straight.” That’s fine and dandy, but the bottom line is Baylor is a very solid team top to bottom, and they will continue to get the spotlight with upcoming games @ Oklahoma State this weekend and v. Texas on December. Win out, and they’re in the Fiesta Bowl at worst. They’re praying for Auburn or South Carolina (sorry Missouri) to beat Alabama or FSU to lose to, um, Duke in the ACC Championship. Ohio State is going to slowly slide as the Big-10’s competition just isn’t as tough as the other major conferences (except the AAC of course).

2. During their usual post-LSU let down, ‘Bama looked sluggish at time, but once again walked away with a victory in which they held yet another opponent to less than 10. They keep saying this team has holes, but they keep winning in convincing fashion. Now they get a tune up against Chattanooga before the November 30th Iron Bowl, possibly the most anticipated match-up in this series in 20 years.

3. I said last week that despite how much I love Stanford, they weren’t deserving of a #4 BCS ranking and a mere upset or two away from a title match-up. I didn’t really need USC to prove my point, but they did. With loses against Utah and USC, how do you think Stanford would fare against FSU, Alabama, or Baylor? They’d interestingly enough probably have a better time with FSU and Baylor than Alabama, given their track record of success against spread teams versus grind it out teams. But, the BCS still loves Stanford, having them ranked the highest out of two loss teams.

4. Here we are approaching week 13, and South Carolina is still in the hunt in the SEC-East. They need a Missouri loss to either Ole Miss (not likely) or A&M (likely, but either way, take the over) to get a chance at Alabama/Auburn, and they also have a chance to show that Clemson isn’t the best one-loss team (a review of Clemson’s resume shows that a close win over Georgia isn’t that impressive now, and a blow-out against FSU with really nothing else to show for themselves implies trouble in the in-state rivalry to happen on November 30th).

5. Michigan State scored 41 against the Blackshirts from Nebraska. To put that in perspective, the only other times the Spartans have scored more than 30 were against Indiana (117th scoring defense), Illinois (111th scoring defense), and Youngstown State from the FCS. Pelini’s back on the hot seat.

6. These are words you don’t hear every day in November: Duke controls it’s own destiny in the ACC-Coastal.

7. Stanford’s loss to USC opened the door for Oregon to not only get back into the PAC-12 race, but also the National Championship race. But they’ll need a lot of help for that. Then again, remember a few years ago when LSU went from something like #7 to #2 in the second to last week of the year? With Alabama, Ohio State, Baylor, and Clemson having really tough match-ups left, this isn’t out of the question.

8. Oklahoma State dispatched Texas and pretty much knocked the Longhorns out of the Big-12 picture. Big-12 title is on the line (again) this weekend when Oklahoma State welcomes in Baylor.

9. As much as I like Arizona State, Wisconsin really should be 9-1 and likely in the top 10-15 in the BCS and playing for an at-large game. Then again, Wisconsin didn’t handle that kneel down correctly in Tempe in Week 3, so they do have some blame. Still, the Badgers’ two losses are by 9 points to the #3 and #17 teams in the BCS, so that should put them in the discussion for best two loss team in the country. Certainly, best two loss team that no one is talking about.

10. The entire game, and specifically the 4th quarter, of Georgia/Auburn was incredible. We’ve all seen the highlights, but one thing I haven’t seen much talk of is that Murray was stopped short of the goal line on their 4th down. Sure, replay upheld the call, mainly because there wasn’t indisputable evidence to overturn the call on the field. But I want to know where the opposite camera angle was. We only had two, from one side of the goal line and from the back. I want to see the opposite angle as I believe he was inches short of the goal line. Regardless, yet another example of defense backs trying to get a highlight interception when the play on 4th down needs to be to knock it down! After the deflection, that ball seemed to be in the air forever. I would’ve loved to have been there in person to witness that finish. College football at it’s finest!

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Florida State (10-0) – Off-the-field distractions don’t seem to be distracting the on-the-field play.

#2 Alabama (10-0) – Boring, yet incredibly efficient and may be the most complete Tide team of this dynasty.

#3 Baylor (9-0) – I’m a believer!

#4 Ohio State (10-0) – It’s not good when you need to run up the score against Illinois, and then only win by 25.

#5 Clemson (9-1) – Best one loss team. I think.

#6 Oregon (9-1) – Back in the picture.

#7 Auburn (10-1) – Iron Bowl. But we still have to wait a week.

#8 Oklahoma State (9-1) – Defacto Big-12 Championship this weekend. Again.

#9 Missouri (9-1) – Uh, we’re still here!!

#10 Fresno State (9-0) – Uh, so are we!

Rising Fast:

Duke – 8-2 and in control in the ACC-Coastal. And we’re talking basketball, not football.

Falling Faster:

Texas – They’ve still got a chance in the Big-12 despite the worst home loss in the Mack Brown era, and suffering their 8th straight home loss to ranked teams. Texas football, that ain’t.

Heisman Watch:

A.J. McCarron, Alabama – Sure, Winston at FSU may have better numbers and more flash, but nothing says “outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity” like sexual assault allegations that aren’t going away.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Alabama v. Florida State – I set the line at FSU -6.5 and O/U 64.

Week 13 Big Games:

Texas A&M @ LSU – The “don’t forget about us” match-up in the SEC-West. Both has aspirations for both the SEC Title and the BCS Title. Now they’re just playing for respect. LSU really shut down Johnny Football and Co. in the 2nd half last year, so it’s revenge time for A&M against an underachieving LSU team that has had flashes of brilliance. A&M 41 LSU 30.

Wisconsin @ Minnesota – A match-up of 8-2 teams in the Midwestern border battle. That’s right, Minnesota is 8-2. The Gophers have been winning close games, and while it’s no surprise that Wisconsin is rushing for over 300 yards a game, it is a bit of a surprise that Wisconsin has held six of their opponents to their lowest point total of the season. A strong rushing game and a solid defense will cause problems for Minnesota. No close game here: Wisconsin 45 Minnesota 13.

ASU @ UCLA – PAC-12 South more or less on the line in this one. ASU never plays well in So. Cal, but their defense is peaking. UCLA has struggled recently, though who doesn’t struggle against Oregon and Stanford? Overall these teams are pretty evenly matched, but weather may play a factor in this one, and if so, you gotta go with the better defense team which is ASU. Let’s take ASU in a squeaker: 31-30.

Missouri @ Ole Miss – Missouri’s starting QB is back, but their facing a Rebels team that is underrated (they’re only three loses were to A&M and Auburn by a combined 11 points, and they only gave up 25 to Alabama). The problem is that Missouri is more underrated and has shocked everyone this year, not only in the SEC but in the nation. Mizzou wins and keeps their SEC-East hopes alive: 33 to 24.

Week 13 Game of the Week:

Baylor @ Oklahoma State – Big-12 Championship game v3.0 (I think. It’s been hard to keep track). Baylor keeps impressing me, but Oklahoma State is at home and has a bit more experience. But, that loss to West Virginia is looking worse and worse, and despite picking OSU to win the Big-12, I think the tides are turning. Baylor’s offense is too explosive, and once they get the lead, they pin their ears back on defense and get to the QB. Baylor keeps things interesting the chase for the BCS: 59 to 45.

Until next time…

Week 11 Recap and Week 12 Preview

Oregon loses to Stanford and Alabama beats LSU. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Oregon’s loss creates quite a bit of havoc in the BCS. Sure, if Alabama and FSU win out, they’re in. But with the Ducks losing, Stanford’s stock is rising, up to #4 in the BCS. As much as I love Stanford (especially those seven lineman formations when everyone in the world knows they’re running off-tackle right and they still get 5+ yards), that means we’re only two upsets away from Stanford getting into the #2 slot. I’m sorry, but we can’t have a team in the championship whose loss was to a team with one conference win. Let’s just live with a Stanford-Ohio State Rose Bowl and call it good. There are some happy folks about Oregon’s loss though – the state of Florida is all cheers, as FSU is now likely to get in, and the Orange Bowl is likely to wind up with Clemson and Oregon.

Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 10 Top-10 recap:

1. Notre Dame’s loss to Pitt wasn’t shocking. Remember, Pitt should’ve beat Notre Dame last year if they can make a simple field goal. And, the Irish were only 5.5 point favorites, which should’ve given anyone pause as Vegas usually over-inflates Notre Dame point spreads anyways. What is shocking is how lifeless this Irish team is. I don’t think you recognize the value of leadership until you lose a Manti T’eo on defense and a Tyler Eifert on offense. I was laughing when folks were still saying that Notre Dame was going to a BCS game. Were they actually watching this team? I predicted 7-5, and that’s likely to happen with them closing with BYU and Stanford.

2. When Baylor fell behind 5-3 early on, I thought that they were indeed overrated. Then they scored three TDs in just a couple of minutes and ended up blowing out Oklahoma. The more impressive thing for me about Baylor is their defense. Usually these high powered offensive teams lack defense because they end up having their defense on the field for so long that they tire out. But there’s Baylor, #1 in the country at 61 points/game and #6 at scoring defense, only giving up 15/game. But, they gotta turn right around and play Texas Tech, and not falter against TCU before what’s looking to be a defacto Big-12 Championship on December 7th against Texas.

3. It’s worth noting that despite Stanford absolutely dominating Oregon on both sides of the ball for 50 minutes; Oregon was one on-side kick away from likely winning that game. That’s how explosive Oregon’s offense can be, and that’s why Stanford isn’t undefeated and going to the National Championship game. Their style just lends itself to close games.

4. What’s been a bigger surprise, how well Missouri has done in the SEC or how poor Florida has done? Losing to Vandy at home for the first time in nearly 70 years is a bad thing. What’s worse is Florida is now, at best, the fourth best team in the state.

5. Nebraska scored late, and the Blackshirts showed up, and Pelini keeps his job for another week. The stat out of this game is how horrible Michigan’s rushing has been the last two week: -69 yards rushing. Sure, a lot of that is because Gardner is slow and turns 5 yard sacks into 15-20 yard sacks, but still, for a program built on a solid ground game, two straight games with negative rushing yards (especially against Nebraska’s suspect defense) is pathetic.

6. Yet another week, yet another 21-point blow-out for Alabama. We’re watching what may wind up being the greatest college football dynasty in history, and we’re bored. That’s a shame. Even after the A&M and LSU wins, pundits were talking about how they exposed Alabama’s weaknesses. Well, here we are, 11 weeks in, and Alabama will likely be doing something they haven’t done the last two years. Finishing the season undefeated. I just wonder if the Saban to Texas distractions are going to continue to grow; especially with how much Texas just paid for their new Athletic Director.

7. With how good Alabama is, I still think Florida State is an all-around better team right now. #2 in offensive and #4 in scoring defense (and would be flirting in Alabama territory if not for giving up 34 to Boston College). The story lines are building for a FSU-‘Bama championship. I just hope they don’t screw it up.

8. Minnesota has been a good story this year – winning eight games already. But, the Big 12 is down overall, and their schedule has been fairly manageable. Of course, they close with Wisconsin and Michigan State. But, 8-4 is not a bad season for the Gophers.

9. Arizona State is off to a quiet 7-2 start and they control their destiny in the PAC-12 South. Take care of business against Oregon State, battle it out against UCLA, and don’t suck it up against UofSuck, and they get to be clobbered again by Stanford. But hey, at least ASU beat Utah.

10. So the Heisman race is wide open now; many have Winston as the top pick now with Johnny Football sneaking up behind. If I had a vote, I’d put McCarron at the top. Folks will say that it’s not about a career’s work, or reserved for someone who’s on a great team. But the Heisman criterion is vague: “The Heisman Memorial Trophy annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity.” If that’s not McCarron, I don’t know what is.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Florida State (9-0) – I think your offense is a bit better than Alabama’s.

#2 Alabama (9-0) – I think your defense is a bit better than FSU’s.

#3 Ohio State (9-0) – I think your schedule is the reason you can’t crack the Top-2.

#4 Baylor (8-0) – Still no love.

#5 Clemson (8-1) – You lost to FSU so you deserve to be here.

#6 Stanford (8-1) – You lost to Utah so you don’t deserve to be above Clemson.

#7 Oregon (8-1) – Too bad you can’t avoid Stanford on the schedule.

#8 Oklahoma State (8-1) – Remember us?

#9 Auburn (9-1) – The Iron Bowl approacheth.

#10 Fresno State (9-0) – Have fun at the Fiesta Bowl!

Rising Fast:

Baylor – Ok, I’m a believer (which of course means you’ll lose two outta your next three)

Falling Faster:

Notre Dame – There’s just nothing there. Nothing. Could end the season on three game skid.

Heisman Watch:

A.J. McCarron, Alabama – It would be deserving. He holds that team together without flashiness, cockiness, or arrogance.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Alabama v. Florida State – I could live with this match-up.

Week 12 Big Games:

Oklahoma State @ Texas – Defacto Big-12 Championship v1.1 (Texas/OU was the first), and the first of three for Oklahoma State – having Baylor next, and then finally Oklahoma. Texas has rattled off six straight since losing two out of their first three, but Oklahoma State has looked strong since that odd loss @ West Virginia (who took Texas to O.T. by the way). I think we’re in for close game, and more than likely a shootout as both defenses are pretty sketchy. I picked OSU to win the Big-12 in the preseason, so I gotta stick with them: 41 to 38.

Texas Tech @ Baylor – Baylor is on the upswing, and Tech has dropped three straight (soon to be five). Baylor’s defense is almost as impressive as their offense. They still really haven’t played anyone, but I’m a believer: Baylor 55 Texas Tech 24.

Week 12 Game of the Week:

Georgia @ Auburn – Georgia beat LSU by 3; Auburn lost to LSU by 14 (but they were on the road and Georgia was at home). Georgia’s defense is still a liability (which is the reason their margins of victory/loss against real teams has been 3, 11, 3, 3, 15, 4, and 3), and that doesn’t bode well against an Auburn team that is running the ball very well and will control the clock. And no look ahead to the Iron Bowl for Auburn, as they’ve a bye week to get ready for that. Tigers knock out the Bulldogs 45 to 38.

Until next time…

Week 10 Recap and Week 11 Preview

Sure enough, Florida State jumps back over Oregon in the BCS by beating an overrated Miami team (seriously; FSU was 21 point favorites). Don’t get me wrong, FSU is good; well, great; but, this flip-flopping poll nonsense is, well, nonsense. Oregon may have had a legitimate beef with not getting to the Championship last year – but the canned response is “don’t lose to Stanford.” That holds true this year as well, but can you imagine the chaos that’s going to ensue if we wind up with four unbeaten teams (not counting Fresno and Northern Illinois, of course) at the end of the season? In the words of Dick Enberg, “Oh my.” Thankfully, these things usually sort themselves out in the final few weeks. And, we’re in the final few weeks.

Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 10 Top-10 recap:

1. What’s scarier about Navy almost beating Notre Dame (and racking up 330+ yards rushing on an Irish defense that was supposed to be better than last year’s version) is that if Navy had won (and they were certainly in a position to do so) it would’ve been their third win in their last four trips to South Bend. Remember when the Navy game was the one guaranteed victory for the Irish? Oh how things have changed…

2. I’ve never been a big Ohio State fan, but they’re just not getting any love at all. 21-0 under Urban Meyer, and unless Alabama and Florida State lose, they’re not going to get in, despite a likely 13-0 record in a major conference. We need a playoff and we need it now.

3. Granted it was only against Tennessee, but for Missouri to bounce back with a big win after the heartbreaking double O.T. loss to South Carolina shows that the Tigers are legitimate contenders in the SEC East. They need to take care of business against Kentucky and Ole Miss on the road, and then they close with A&M at home. If they win all three; they get ‘Bama in the SEC Championship. And speaking of Tennessee, what a brutal schedule. This weekend against Auburn will be their fifth straight game against Top-11 competition, coupled with the earlier road games against Oregon and Florida. It’s hard to have a good season when you play seven ranked teams.

4. USC has won three straight PAC-12 games after they bagged Lame Kiffin. That’s been bittersweet for me. As much as I hate Kiffin, I hate USC more. I remember the feeling I had after USC got rid of John Robinson and Paul Hackett and hired Pete Carroll. They went from a decade of mediocrity to great almost overnight (cheating certainly helped, of course). I fear that USC is going to be back to greatness now that Kiffin is a distant memory. I just hope that Kiffin doesn’t land in Nebraska when Pelini gets run out of town. I don’t even think the Hail Mary can save his job.

5. Staying in the PAC-12, Arizona State appears to be on a collision course with Oregon for the PAC-12 Championship. ASU’s offense is probably the only one in the PAC-12 that could attempt to stay in a shootout with Oregon, and their scores against common opponents have been pretty similar. But, ASU was blown out by Stanford, and Stanford is not going to blow out Oregon. Still, take the over on an ASU/Oregon PAC-12 Championship.

6. The Michigan-Michigan State game was so ugly that it’s worth discussing for a just a bit. Okay, that’s about enough of a recap of that game. Sparty’s in line to get destroyed by Ohio State in the Big10 Championship.

7. Wisconsin is the best two loss team that no one is talking about. They likely should only have one loss with how the refs botched the finish @ Arizona State. And, they only lost by seven at the Horseshoe to Ohio State. They should finish 10-2, if they can survive the trip to Minnesota in a couple weeks. Yes, Minnesota. 7-2 Minnesota. Well, soon to be 7-5 Minnesota, but whatever.

8. If you had to pick Boyd to Watkins or Manziel to Evans as your top QB to WR combo, which would you pick? I’d probably pick Boyd/Watkins solely because of their first names: Tajh and Sammy sounds much more badass than Johnny and Mike. Then again, Johnny Lawrence and Mike Barnes were the villains in Karate Kid I and III…

9. Time to dust off the tie-breaker rules for the Big 12 Championship (since there’s not a conference championship game anymore, the rulebook is sponsored by Dr. Pepper). Texas is soon to be 6-0 in the conference, but closes with Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Baylor. Baylor is 4-0, but has Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Texas. Oklahoma State had the random loss to West Virginia, but still has Texas, Baylor, and Oklahoma. And finally, Oklahoma was shellacked by Texas, but only has Baylor and Oklahoma State left (well, not counting Iowa State and Kansas State). Oklahoma has the easier road, but with the loss to Texas, needs two Texas losses. I’m still betting on Oklahoma State to come out on top.

10. Well, we’re ten weeks in, let’s look back at my preseason Top-10: #1 Oregon, #2 Ohio State, #3 South Carolina, #4 Stanford, #5 Alabama, #6 Louisville, #7 Georgia, #8 Oklahoma State, #9 Clemson, and #10 Florida. So, oops on South Carolina, Louisville, Georgia, Okie State, and Florida (though, Oklahoma State could find themselves back in the Top-10 pretty quick). Not too shabby.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Oregon (8-0) – Win out, and you’re in. Don’t worry about those flip-flopping polls. FSU’s schedule isn’t going to help them from here on out.

#2 Ohio State (9-0) – Style points don’t matter Urban. Quit running up the score (though, if you get the chance to drop a hondo on Indiana in couple weeks, do it!)

#3 Alabama (8-0) – Wouldn’t it be sad if this “boring” team winds up undefeated (something they weren’t the last two years) champs? How would that affect their dynasty?

#4 Florida State (9-0) – Yes, Miami was overrated. But still, you put a whipping on the ‘Canes.

#5 Clemson (8-1) – Boyd to Watkins is fun to watch. Over and over.

#6 Stanford (7-1) – I don’t think you’re as good as last year’s team. We’ll find out for sure on Thursday.

#7 Oklahoma (7-1) – Since you’re going to beat Baylor, I have to have you ranked ahead of them.

#8 Baylor (7-0) – Fun run, while it lasted.

#9 LSU (7-2) – If you don’t beat ‘Bama, we can just forget about this ranking, m’kay?

#10 Fresno State (8-0) – Northern Illinois earned the right to get clobbered by a real team; you’ll probably get lucky and have a shot to beat the Big12 Champion in the Fiesta Bowl.

Rising Fast:

Florida State – Not just beating good teams, but destroying them. FSU is a legitimate title contender, and if the initial rankings came out today, they’d probably be #1. I have them #4 because I’m still pissed they gave them the title in ’93 over Notre Dame even though Notre Dame beat them head-to-head.

Falling Faster:

Texas Tech – Started off 7-0. Now you’ve lost two straight and still have Baylor and Texas.

Heisman Watch:

Marcus Mariota – It’s simple, if Oregon beats Stanford, he wins the Heisman.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Oregon v. Ohio State – Ohio State continues to be on the outside looking in, but I still have them here because it’s pretty clear they aren’t going to lose. FSU will lose to someone (they always do), as will Alabama. If ‘Bama does wind up undefeated, I’ll really enjoy the Oregon-Alabama match-up, but I’m sticking with my preseason prediction (gotta be a record for the Autumn Wind to have the same prediction in week 11) of Oregon & Ohio State.

Week 11 Big Games:

Oklahoma @ Baylor – Baylor finally plays someone, and it’s safe to say that they’re not going to put up 60 on the Sooners. OU has a revamped defense to counter the spread offense, and it’s been working wonders. I’m still not sure what happened in the Red River Rivalry, but OU is probably the best one loss team in the country; okay, maybe a bit behind Clemson. Baylor’s dream season comes to an end, despite being at home with a crowd calling this one the biggest game in Baylor history. Oklahoma

LSU @ Alabama – 21-17, 9-6, 24-21. Those are the scores of the last three regular season games between Alabama and LSU (throw out the 21-0 National Championship matchup that never should’ve happened). And, LSU has won two out of three of those. We all know Alabama’s story, and while LSU limps in with two losses, they were by a combined six points to pretty good Georgia and Ole’ Miss teams. Both teams can score, but Alabama’s defense keeps getting better and better – only giving up a total of 26 points in their last six games. But, folks are getting complacent in Tuscaloosa. I’ve heard from several Alabama fans that aren’t even watching games anymore because, and I quote: “they’re boring.” Alabama is favored by 11, which is crazy, considering the recent history between these two. I’m sticking to my guns, and I’m calling the upset, which knocks the SEC out of Championship consideration: LSU 23 Alabama 20.

Week 11 Game of the Week:

Oregon @ Stanford – I’ve had this one circled since last year when Oregon laid a balut at home and shanked that FG attempt in O.T. in their 14-7 loss that kept them out of the national championship picture. But Stanford was just returning the favor from 2011 when Oregon blew them out of championship consideration in a 53-20 loss at the Farm. Both teams have shown they can win on each others’ field, so that won’t play a factor. Turnovers will. That will decide the game. Mariota hasn’t thrown an INT since the Stanford game last year. If he protects the ball, Oregon wins. The other major factor is injuries. Stanford’s a little beat up. They were able to control tempo from start to finish last year, but with some injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and not as efficient of an offense compared to last year’s version, Stanford needs to avoid a patented Duck three-TD burst. And they won’t be able to. Oregon wins big: 43 to 24.

Until next time…

Week 9 Recap and Week 10 Preview

Here’s why I hate the BCS. Two weeks ago, Oregon destroys Washington State and loses a spot in the standings because Florida State destroyed Clemson. Now, Oregon beats up on UCLA and all FSU does is clobber the NC State team that beat ‘em last year, and now FSU drops a spot. Get it together BCS; it’s not a “what have you done for me lately?” or “how bad did you beat a team you’re supposed to beat” ranking system. But, thankfully, it’s almost over. Speaking of almost over, the race to the Championship is down to pretty much four teams – Oregon, Ohio State, Alabama, and Florida State. All four took care of business with no problems this weekend, and if all four remain unbeaten, it would be a shame if 1) Oregon and Alabama don’t play (as they should’ve been the two to play last year; sorry, Notre Dame) and 2) we don’t have the four team playoff this year. And to prove how ridiculous the BCS ranking system is, I predict FSU will once again jump over Oregon because FSU has undefeated Miami and Oregon has a bye.

Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 9 Top-10 recap:

1. Would whoever had Duke beating Virginia Tech and Minnesota beating Nebraska in your weekly pool please stand up. Thought so.

2. Miami remains unbeaten, but has been living dangerously the last couple of weeks; needing last minute scores to beat North Carolina and Wake Forest. That’s fine and dandy against teams with a combined 3-6 record in the ACC, but now you have to travel to Tallahassee. Looks like Miami is the next unbeaten to drop.

3. Baylor keeps rolling, yet they failed to score at least 69 for only the second time. They’re offense leads the nation in points (64/game), and they’ve only given up 16/game. The problem with Baylor is that we’re nine weeks into the season and they still haven’t played anyone. Their toughest competition so far has been either Kansas State or West Virginia – both of which have losing records. But that’s all gonna change. Enjoy your bye week Baylor. After that you get Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Texas. It’s quite possible you could lose all five of those. Okay, maybe not TCU. But here we are in week 10, and the Big12 has five teams with one loss or less in the conference. Seems like the scheduling has worked out for a mini-Big12 Championship playoff over the next few weeks.

4. Missouri’s dream season came to an abrupt end after leading South Carolina 17-0 after three quarters. Injured QB Shaw comes into the game and leads South Carolina on an amazing fourth quarter comeback on the road. And these weren’t short drives; all three scoring drives went 60+ yards. The look on the faces in the crowd after Missouri missed the 24 yard extra point length FG in O.T. said it all. Regardless, Mizzou still has the upper hand to win the SEC-East, but they need to beat Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and ol’ Big 12 rival Texas A&M.

5. As much as I love Stanford this year, and what they’ve done with their program the last several years, I’m still scratching my head as to how they’re basically ranked the same as they would be if they hadn’t lost to 4-4 Utah. Don’t get me wrong, Stanford is a great team, and has a very favorable schedule here on out (both Oregon and Notre Dame at the Farm); but are they the best one loss team in the country? Clemson and Oklahoma would surely disagree.

6. Was LSU really only ahead of Furman 20-16 at halftime? You’re not going to beat Alabama at that rate.

7. Both Fresno State and Northern Illinois stayed undefeated and have eyes on busting the BCS. Fresno’s gonna have to get by Boise State (again) in the Mountain West Championship game, and Northern Illinois is going to have to beat Ball State and Toledo (combined record 13-4) to even get to the MAC Championship, likely against Buffalo. But at #16 and 17 they’re both in a pretty good position right now with lots of teams above them that are going to lose a time or two before it is all said and done.

8. Obscure stats of the week. With a five TD performance against Air Force, Tommy Rees is now third in passing TD’s in Irish history (bumping Powlus to fourth) and now has the same number of wins at Theisman and Lujak. Pretty impressive for a guy that’s really never even been the starter; just more of a “well, I guess we need a QB – hey Tommy, what’cha doing today?” Sidebar on Powlus – I still dislike Chris Collingsworth for saying that Powlus was gonna win the Heisman four times after his first start when he threw four TDs against a crappy Northwestern game. “Step out of the way, Joe Montana” was the quote, I believe. Nice prediction, Chris.

9. The Big 12 doesn’t really want a champion this year it seems. Tech was the latest victim to go down (to Oklahoma), and now it’s just Texas and Baylor at the top. But that’s all gonna change soon with how stacked the Big 12 schedule is at the end of the year. I think Oklahoma probably has the best chance to come away with it, but don’t count out Baylor and that dangerous offense that has their fans saying RG-Who?

10. Oregon had some turnovers and played pretty sloppy in the first half against UCLA. But, they were tied, where as just about any other team would’ve been down by two to three scores. Then they went on the patented Ducks run. I’m not sure there’s a team out there (including Alabama, Ohio State, or even FSU) that has the ability to 1) hold the Ducks under 40 in a big game, and 2) play fast enough to score enough to score more than them. Kinda like Stanford did last year, LSU and USC the year before (okay, the USC game was kind of a shootout), and Auburn did in the championship game three years ago. But, I just don’t see that happening this year. They’re just really firing on all cylinders and have a week off to prep for revenge against Stanford, a team that’s looking more and more beatable as the year goes on.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Oregon (8-0) – First big test passed. Now on to the Farm.

#2 Ohio State (8-0) – I don’t see a loss coming.

#3 Alabama (8-0) – Yet another >40 to <14 win.

#4 Florida State (7-0) – Can you beat Miami twice? You may have to.

#5 Clemson (7-1) – Needs to finish strong to get a (deservedly so) at large BCS bid.

#6 Stanford (6-1) – The thing that worries me is you like to keep games close against everyone.

#7 Miami (7-0) – Sorry, ‘Canes, I’m not a believer.

#8 Baylor (7-0) – Still not sure whether or not to believe. We’ll know more soon.

#9 Oklahoma (7-1) – The Big 12 is still yours if you want it.

#10 LSU (7-2) – Problem is, even if you beat Alabama, you’ll lose to A&M the following week.

Rising Fast:

Minnesota and Duke – Both are bowl eligible in October!

Falling Faster:

Nebraska – Losing to UCLA is one thing. Losing to Minnesota for the first time in 50+ years is something else.

Heisman Watch:

Marcus Mariota – Not great statistics against UCLA, but they did what Boyd couldn’t do. Win when it matters. Now, the November 7th game @ Stanford will decide whether or not you win it. This is your Johnny Football moment.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Oregon v. Ohio State – Alabama still has LSU, Auburn, and the SEC Championship (South Carolina?). FSU has Miami (maybe twice) and Florida. Oregon has Stanford, Oregon State, and probably UCLA again. Ohio State has Michigan (maybe twice). See where I’m going with this whole “Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game” thing? Their road is much easier.

Week 10 Big Games:

Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech – Two really even matched teams square off in one. Oklahoma State has looked better since its bizarre loss to West Virginia, while Tech is coming out of a shootout with Oklahoma where they came up just short. Oklahoma State is gonna give up points, and Tech is at home. That should be just enough to squeak out a victory for the Red Raiders: 37 to 34.

Michigan @ Michigan State – Michigan State can pretty much wrap up the Legends division with a victory over the Wolverines. Despite both teams only having one loss; neither has been very impressive. Michigan State’s at home, but Michigan is the much better team. Let’s pick Michigan to win 27 to 17.

Week 10 Game of the Week:

Miami @ Florida State – This match-up kind of reminds me of this week’s Sunday Night Football game between the Packers and the Vikings. Old rivals, lots of odd finishes over the years; but ultimately reality sets in and you realize: where is Miami (Vikings) going to generate enough offense to keep up with the Seminoles (Packers)? Miami is having a good run, and may get FSU again in the ACC Championship game, but they just don’t have enough on either side of the ball to win this one. Florida State 41 Miami 27.

Until next time…

Week 8 Recap and Week 9 Preview

Disclaimer: I watched no college football this week; well, with the exception of the Tuesday LA-Lafayette/Western Kentucky game. My elk hunt started Friday, so I was out in the woods from Thursday until Sunday. By the time I killed the elk on Saturday evening and got back to camp, all of the games were done. But, oh boy, was I scoreboard watching. And what a show it was to watch. Should’ve known something was up when Miami needed a last minute drive to beat North Carolina on Thursday, and then when Louisville went down on Friday. Followed by South Carolina and Georgia going down, Tech struggling with West Virginia, Florida bounced by Missouri, Ohio State struggling with Iowa, Auburn rolling A&M, Stanford owning UCLA once again, and Clemson getting trounced by Florida State. And, then there’s Oregon scoring 60 again and Alabama pitching another shut-out. So, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Since I didn’t watch much this weekend, let’s get straight to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Oregon (7-0) – Now it’s time to see what you’re made of, with UCLA and Stanford as your next two opponents.

#2 Ohio State (7-0) – The easiest road to undefeated territory; though, we saw what happened to Louisville.

#3 Alabama (7-0) – Even after giving up 42 to A&M, you’re back to the #1 scoring defense in the land.

#4 Florida State (6-0) – Destroyed Clemson. Undefeated Miami coming up in two weeks. Don’t forget about NC State!!!

#5 Missouri (7-0) – Who had Mizzou with a two game lead in the SEC East after week 8?

#6 Miami (6-0) – Living dangerously.

#7 Stanford (6-1) – Want that Utah game back?

#8 Texas Tech (7-0) – Flavor of the week in the Big 12.

#9 Clemson (6-1) – The Georgia win isn’t as impressive now, is it?

#10 Fresno State (6-0) – Sure, why not? Lots of teams ranked above you are guaranteed to lose.

Rising Fast:

Auburn – All of the sudden, the Iron Bowl looks to be Alabama’s most difficult remaining game.

Falling Faster:

Top-10 teams – Not a good week, unless you’re Oregon, Ohio State, Alabama, and Florida State.

Heisman Watch:

Marcus Mariota – Boyd failed his test against Florida State. Let’s see how Mariota and company do against UCLA and Stanford.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Oregon v. Ohio State – Sticking with it, as Ohio State still has the easier road compared to Alabama or Florida State. But okay, I really want to see Oregon/Alabama, as I think most people do.

Week 9 Big Games:

Tennessee @ Alabama – Alabama shouldn’t be 28 point favorites in this game. Not for the third weekend in October, or whatever all the freaks in the south celebrate. ‘Bama wins, but not by 4 TDs. Alabama 31 Tennessee 17.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma – Big 12 is still wide open, but Tech can create some more breathing room if they can go into Norman and get a victory. But they can’t. Oklahoma with a chance to get back into the Big 12 race with a big victory: 38 to 35.

South Carolina @ Missouri – Missouri is one of the big surprises of the season – a two game lead in the SEC East. South Carolina is one of the disappointments of the season – two losses already, with Missouri, Florida, and Clemson still on the schedule. But, Missouri has no business winning this game. Then again, they had no business beating Georgia or Florida either. Let’s see if Mizzou can’t keep it going: 34 to 24.

Stanford @ Oregon State – Oregon State’s rattled off six straight since they lost to Eastern Washington in week one. And, they won @ Utah, something Stanford couldn’t do. The Beaver’s are also first in the nation in passing, and ninth in points/game. Stanford’s defense will be tested, but I think the Utah loss really has them refocused. Let’s look for Stanford to win a tight one: 27 to 24.

Week 9 Game of the Week:

UCLA @ Oregon – Oregon finally gets a true test. But it’s in Eugene, and it’s against a UCLA team that was exposed against Stanford. UCLA will desperately try to slow things down (I put the over/under on fake injuries at 4.5), but won’t have any luck. The Ducks are just firing on all cylinders and then get a week off for the huge Thursday November 7th match-up against Stanford. Oregon 62 UCLA 41.

Until next time…

Week 7 Recap and Week 8 Preview

I led last week’s Autumn Wind with this: “The giants will fall – it’s just a matter of when, to whom, and who’s left standing at the end.” Well, the madness that is the end of the college football season has officially started. Stanford, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Michigan all went down, and A&M was trying to figure out a way to lose. And this weekend we’ve a very good UCF team @ Louisville (who hasn’t looked that impressive the last couple of weeks), Florida @ 6-0 Mizzou, undefeated UCLA traveling to the Farm to face a pissed off Stanford team, and of course Florida State at Clemson. The Top-10 was pretty much unchanged until this weekend. Safe to say we’re gonna see some changes again. With the exception of Oregon and Alabama who are both once again 4+ TD favorites.

Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 7 Top-10 recap:

1. Texas finally showed up for the Red River Rivalry and took down Oklahoma. Mack Brown has saved his job for now, and don’t look now, but Texas is tied atop the Big 12. Not a bad place to be after week 7. But, it’s been proven so far that no one really wants to win the Big 12, so don’t be surprised if Baylor or Texas Tech wind up winning the conference and their BCS bowl spot.

2. Georgia was living dangerously with that crappy defense all year, and with all of the injuries and with running up against a red hot Missouri team, their number was up. Is Missouri going to compete for the SEC and the BCS? No. Did they actually help sort things out by beating Georgia? Yes. We no longer have to look at Georgia as the best one loss team out there. And, very impressive start by Missouri.

3. Call it a look-ahead game, or call it trouble in the making, but Clemson barely getting by Boston College is not a good sign coming up on the big weekend against Florida State. But, a win is a win no matter what; something Oklahoma, Michigan, Georgia, and Stanford would agree with.

4. Georgia’s loss to Missouri and Florida’s loss to LSU has South Carolina saying “remember us?” The Gamecocks seem to be playing better since they’re not in the spotlight anymore, but that’s soon to change. Maybe Clowney will quit being a baby and start playing like a pro? Otherwise, I think his draft stock is falling faster than….well, I promised years ago, I’d try to keep politics out of the Autumn Wind; so just insert either the House GOP or Obama’s approval rating. Oops. I went there.

5. Speaking of oops, Stanford ran into its match @ Utah. Let’s not be mistaken here, this was an upset, but not a huge one. Utah was only a nine point dog, and they play a similar style as Stanford. I was very high on Stanford this year, but after struggling against Army, and nearly letting ASU come back from a huge deficit, it was clear they weren’t going to compete for a National Championship. They can, however, play spoiler once again, to Oregon in the PAC-12 North.

6. But, Oregon shows no signs of slowing down. And while Washington gave them a game through three quarters, the Ducks finally had to play a fourth quarter; and wound up running away with it again. Oregon is licking its chops (do ducks have chops?) for a match-up against Alabama in the Championship.

7. Despite giving up 42 to A&M, Alabama is back in familiar territory; 2nd in the NCAA in scoring defense and once again in the Top-10 in total defense. I still think LSU is going to beat Alabama, or if not, South Carolina in the SEC Championship, but I do admit that Saban has taken this team to new levels. After the 2010 Championship team, Saban admitted the following year failures were his fault, and that he wouldn’t let that happen again. All he’s done (well, the team) is rattle off two more titles and in contention for a third straight. It’s good to be a Tide fan. But wait, isn’t the third weekend in October coming up?

8. The Michigan & Penn State game was an instant classic, and while Michigan was another undefeated team to lose this weekend, it’s almost like the pollsters saw it coming. The Wolverines kept beating everyone, but never really moved up in the polls. The Penn State program is rebounding incredibly well from the sanctions put in place after that awful situation that I’d rather not talk about.

9. Georgia was living dangerously all year with that great offense, but offensive defense. Now that they’ve lost twice, I declare A&M the new Georgia; they’re flirting with trouble. Sure, it’s fun to watch that offense put up points and come from behind, but eventually, they’ll run into trouble with a defense that can’t stop anyone. Hmmmm….November 23rd @ LSU?

10. Speaking of the Tigers, LSU’s win over Florida wasn’t impressive, but they got the job done. A win is a win, is a win. And LSU has shown they can win shoot-outs (well, except against Georgia), and tight, tough defense match-ups. I know declare you the best one loss team in the country.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Oregon (6-0) – Big win on the road.

#2 Ohio State (6-0) – Only 16.5 favorites against Iowa?

#3 Alabama (6-0) – Yeah, yeah; don’t worry, if you take care of business, you’ll be in the Top 2.

#4 Louisville (12-0) – Watch out for UCF!

#5 Clemson (6-0) – Are you about to be the best one loss team in the country?

#6 Florida State (5-0) – If you pull off the victory in Death Valley (sorry LSU), I’m a believer.

#7 LSU (6-1) – I’ve got you beating Alabama, so I gotta get you climbing the polls now.

#8 Texas A&M (5-1) – Imagine if you could’a stopped Alabama once or twice?

#9 Miami (5-0) – Uh, ACC is the second best conference? Where did that come from?

#10 UCLA (5-0) – But, you gotta beat Stanford this weekend, which I’m not sure you can do.

Rising Fast:

Missouri – Where did this come from?

Falling Faster:

Georgia – A ton of injuries, a horrid defense, and an even worse schedule finally caught up with you.

Heisman Watch:

Tajh Boyd, Clemson – Marriota is really sneaking up on you. Can you get another signature win against FSU?

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Oregon v. Ohio State – Sticking with it, and hoping Ohio State loses here soon so we can get the Alabama/Oregon match-up we should’ve had last year.

Week 8 Big Games:

Florida @ Missouri – Florida has its share of injuries, but Missouri’s starting QB is out. Florida’s defense is light years better than Georgia, and Missouri will come out flat after that huge upset last weekend. Gators stay in contention in the SEC East: 27 to 24.

UCLA @ Stanford – UCLA is the undefeated team here; not Stanford. But, Stanford is back at home, and has owned UCLA recently; beating them last year to end the season and turning right around and beating them again in the inaugural PAC-12 Championship. Stanford is the type of team that gives UCLA fits. Kinda like Nebraska, but with an actual defense (sorry, Huskers). Stanford gets back on track: 30 to 24.

Auburn @ Texas A&M – Auburn’s a surprising 5-1, but they really haven’t played anyone other than LSU. A&M is fourth in the nation in scoring, but only 96th in scoring defense. Auburn will score, but they won’t be able to stop Johnny and company. Heck, Auburn gave up 24 to Washington State. A&M will get at least 50. Texas A&M 52 Auburn 27.

Week 8 Game of the Week:

Florida State @ Clemson – Maybe the game of the year so far; with both Florida State and Clemson avoiding their usual random upsets. Florida State comes in fresh off a bye, while Clemson comes in after a struggle against Boston College. Florida State has a much better defense, and Boyd has his match with FSU’s youngster QB Winston. FSU gets the win and propels into the National Championship debate: 45 to 41.

Until next time…

Week 6 Recap and Week 7 Preview

About half-way through the season, and we’ve yet to see a signature upset (Miami over Florida is probably the closest), though Northwestern, Washington, and Tennessee nearly sent the Top-10 head over heels this weekend. Don’t worry. It’ll happen. It always does. And it always comes out of nowhere. The giants will fall – it’s just a matter of when, to whom, and who’s left standing at the end. I insisted early on that there were going to be multiple undefeated teams at the end of the season, and we’re still at 17 right now. But, we still have Oregon/Stanford/UCLA all playing each other, Alabama/LSU, Clemson/Florida State, Michigan/Ohio State, and Oklahoma/Texas Tech/Baylor all playing each other. But, Louisville still doesn’t play anyone (though they could be playing an undefeated Houston team soon) so even if they go undefeated they can’t get into the Top-2.

Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 6 Top-10 recap:

1. Colorado took a page from the Autumn Wind and threw everything they had early at the Ducks. On-side kicks, gimmicks, etc. and actually jumped to a quick lead over Oregon. The problem is Colorado isn’t very good and Oregon is great. Oregon has a dangerous game this weekend at Washington, but UW is coming home after nearly pulling off the upset at the Farm against Stanford. Look for Oregon to roll again.

2. Notre Dame’s defense looked much better against ASU, with six sacks, but they still gave up 34 and needed a strong game from Rees to outscore ASU. Up next, after a bye, is USC. Glad I’ll be hunting that weekend; not sure I can stand the pain of watching Notre Dame lose to a Kiffin-less USC.

3. Georgia is living dangerously because of their defense. It cost ‘em the Clemson game. And, needed a last minute TD to beat LSU is one thing; but needing a last second TD to tie Tennessee is another thing. I still think Georgia is the best one loss team in the country, but that defense has to improve.

4. Ohio State looked a little sluggish in the first half against Northwestern. Not surprising, considering the battle they had last weekend with Wisconsin. Northwestern is a good team, and a win is a win for the Buckeyes. Unlike Louisville, if Ohio State finishes undefeated, they probably deserve to be in the Top 2, unless there’s an unbeaten from the SEC and PAC-12.

5. Anyone that had Florida State on upset alert against Maryland needs to have their college football credentials revoked. 63-0 against an undefeated Maryland team is a statement game. Nice job FSU.

6. We know Oregon’s offense is incredible, but what Baylor is doing is just ridiculous. More than 69 points every game, and something like 700+ yards of offense. Granted, they haven’t played anyone, but the still aren’t gonna play anyone considering they’re into their Big-12 schedule now. Regardless, those offenses are fun to watch.

7. Iowa State got screwed out of a victory over Texas by the replay officials. My two biggest pet peeves in college football right now are defensive pass interference calls when the offensive player is doing as much, if not more than, hand holding with the defense back; and instant replay calls that are clearly missed even after review. If they’re going to waste all of that time, get the right call made. With the technology and dozens of cameras out there, I haven’t seen many, if any, calls that aren’t clearly obviously. Yet mistakes are still made, and in the case of Iowa State this weekend, it cost them the game.

8. There’s been some grumbling that Condi Rice is on the NCAA playoff committee. I don’t get it. She’s smarter than most, very analytical, and is a huge football fan. No sooner than we get rid of the old system and people are already complaining about it. Should we go back to the system where a big percentage of the BCS is determined by a coaches poll where no coaches actually vote in the poll?

9. We’re about mid-way through, so let’s look at the conferences: SEC still reigns supreme, the PAC-12 is climbing, as is the ACC, the Big 10 is about what we thought it would be, the Big 12 is struggling, and the AAC is dead as expected (outside of Louisville). I actually give the nod to the ACC with how well FSU, Clemson, and Miami are playing (including two big wins over Georgia and Florida). SEC a close second, and PAC-12 a very close third. Of course, there’s lots of football to play.

10. Sarkisian definitely has Washington’s program moving in the right direction. Blowing out Boise State and UofSuck and nearly pulling the upset at the Farm in another memorable game of the week. But after a tough, late, loss to Stanford, they have to regroup for Oregon coming to town this weekend. And then heading to ASU the following weekend. Sark’s gotta hold the ship together the next couple of weeks if they’re going to try to stay in the picture in the PAC-12 North.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Oregon (4-0) – One of these days, the starters are gonna have to play in the second half. How’s their conditioning?

#2 Ohio State (6-0) – Survived a scare against a very good Northwestern team on the road.

#3 Stanford (5-0) – Yikes. Washington’s supposed to play like crap away from home.

#4 Alabama (5-0) – I know, I know, I’m nuts for having them at number 4.

#5 Louisville (12-0) – You’re toughest remaining game is Houston?

#6 Clemson (5-0) – Outta be scared about that FSU game next weekend.

#7 Georgia (4-1) – Yet another Top-25 opponent on the schedule.

#8 Florida State (5-0) – Okay, maybe you are legit this year.

#9 Oklahoma (5-0) – Is the Red River Rivalry even a rivalry anymore?

#10 LSU (5-1) – Your schedule doesn’t get any easier.

Rising Fast:

Virginia Tech – After losing to ‘Bama in week 1 everyone wrote off Beamer and company. They’ve rattled off five straight wins, and their schedule is favorable with only a road trip to Miami in November looking like a challenge. 10+ wins for this Va Tech team would be impressive.

Falling Faster:

Texas – They needed help from the refs to beat Iowa State, and they still have Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Baylor; not to mention games @ TCU and @ West Virginia. I’m not sure Mack Brown survives the season, and if another blow out happens in the Red River Rivalry, he may be done this weekend.

Heisman Watch:

Tajh Boyd, Clemson – I still like Boyd, but it’s gonna come down to how he does versus Florida State versus how Mariotta (Oregon) does versus Stanford. Mariotta has yet to need to play in a fourth quarter, and that’s hurt him – but 7 TDs in 2.5 quarters never hurts.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Oregon v. Ohio State – Or give me Oregon versus an SEC team. Oregon wins either way.

Week 7 Big Games:

Missouri @ Georgia – Missouri comes in at a surprising 5-0, and Georgia’s defense continues to show big holes. But, they’re back in Athens and Missouri won’t be able to keep up with the Dawgs offense. Georgia 45 Mizzou 27.

Oklahoma v. Texas – The Red River Rivalry has gone from a BCS-playoff-esque matchup to seeing how bad Oklahoma can beat Texas. Mack Brown needs a miracle to keep his job. Ain’t gonna happen this weekend. Oklahoma 52 Texas 38.

Oregon @ Washington – Washington probably has the best chance other than Stanford to beat the Ducks this year. But, Washington is going to be flat following the emotional loss to Stanford. And you can’t spot Oregon any points and expect to catch up. Ducks keep rolling: 52 to 31.

Week 7 Game of the Week:

Florida @ LSU – LSU’s offense versus Florida’s defense in this one. LSU’s scored 35+ and racked up 400+ yards in their first six games for the first time ever. But Florida’s defense is only giving up 217 yards/game and 12 points/game. But that’s come against Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Not exactly LSU or Alabama or A&M offenses. LSU doesn’t lose at home, winning 28 outta 29 (losing to Alabama last year), and their offense just has too many weapons. LSU 24 Florida 13.

Until next time…