Bowl Preview - Part II

And here’s part duex of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview Edition! Enjoy! As of press time (half time of the Virginia Tech and Rutgers game), I’m 10-2 against the spread and 9-3 on the over/under. That’s some prognostication right there!

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPN

Northwestern v. Mississippi State

The first bowl game of 2013, and it matches up teams from the Big 10 and SEC, which never seems to go well for the Big 10. And even more so since Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1949 and Mississippi State has won five straight bowl games. But, Mississippi ended on quite the skid, losing four outta five (granted, in the heat of the SEC schedule). And where’s their quality win? Auburn, Arkansas, Tennessee?? Okay, SEC folks – not everyone in your conference is the ’85 Bears. North western’s three losses were all close games to quality teams (Penn State, Nebraska, and Michigan). Can’t believe it, but I like the Big 10 over the SEC in this one.

Gambling angle: As usual, the trend is for underdogs to cover here, and I like Mississippi State +2, and the under 51.5.

Heart of Dallas Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPNU

Oklahoma State v. Purdue

This used to be the Ticket City Bowl, but after only two years it’s now the Heart of Dallas Bowl. If you’re Purdue, it’s never a good thing to have needed a win against Indiana the last game of the year to become bowl eligible, and then immediately firing your coach. And if you’re Oklahoma State, it hasn’t been good to play away from home (they’re only road win was against what should be Division III Kansas). And finally, if you’re expecting this to be a quality New Year’s Day game, you’ll be disappointed; though it’ll likely wind up in a shootout as both defenses have struggled.

Gambling angle: No strong trends here for such a young bowl game, but even at -16.5, I like Oklahoma State. And let’s look to the over 70 as both teams give up ~30/game.

Outback Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ESPN

South Carolina v. Michigan

The Outback Bowl is turning into one of my favorite bowls of the year. It always matches up Big 10 versus SEC teams. But top tier teams from each conference, not the stragglers that the Gator Bowl and others get. And, usually on paper the SEC team is supposed to be the dominant team. But looking back 20 years, the SEC is only 11-9 against the Big 10 here. And remember Michigan State’s shocking upset of Georgia last year? Oh, who am I kidding. Maybe in a normal year the Big 10 would have a chance here, but Michigan’s only in this game because half of the Big 10 isn’t bowl eligible. South Carolina runs all over the Wolverines. 

Gambling angle: The Big-10 has covered seven of the last ten Outback bowl, but I’m bucking the trend here and taking South Carolina -5 and the under 48.

Capital One Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ABC

Georgia v. Nebraska

Another good Big 10/SEC match up here, but I don’t think I’ll like the results. Georgia nearly won the SEC Championship Game and Nebraska got bombed back to the stone age by Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship Game. Nebraska’s three losses were all away from Lincoln and two of those Husker fans are still trying to forget about (@ Ohio State and against Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship Game). Georgia beat Florida on a neutral field and nearly beat Alabama on a neutral field a few weeks later. And let’s not forget what South Carolina did to Nebraska in this very game last year. This may be it for Pelini.

Gambling angle: I hate to give up this many points, but let’s take Georgia -10. Five of the last seven have played under, and that seems appropriate with these defenses, so I like the under 57.

Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO – Jan. 1, 5:00pm EST ESPN

Stanford v. Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s back in the Rose Bowl for the third straight year (after losses the last two years to TCU and Oregon), but don’t fret over those five loses from the Badgers. All were close games and three of the losses were in O.T. And they’ve Barry Alvarez back as head coach, who is 3-0 in Pasadena. But, let’s take a look at Stanford. Their two losses were really close games as well, and they’ve reeled off five straight wins against five straight opponents. Wisconsin is too one dimensional. When they’re running downhill they’re unstoppable. But Stanford is about as physical a team you’ll find this year. Wisconsin loses yet another Rose Bowl.

Gambling angle: Favorites tend to do well in Pasadena, and I like Stanford -6.5, and the over 47, but just barely.

Discover Orange Bowl – Jan. 1, 8:30pm EST ESPN

Florida State v. Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois busted the BCS this year, and they’ve got some firepower on offense (40+/game). FSU brings one of the best defenses in the country to the Orange Bowl, but the difference here is this. Northern Illinois hasn’t played anyone. Well except for Iowa back on September 1^st, and they lost that on 17-16. Florida State should, and will, blow them out. Or will they? Florida State looked bad against North Carolina State and Florida, and not great against Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship; or against Virginia Tech, South Florida, and Clemson. Hmmmmm. And remember what these little giants have done to the Big Boys in BCS Games? I like Northern Illinois to keep this one close, and if it’s close in the 4^th quarter, anything can happen. Just ask Bob Stoops if he’d ever want to play Boise State again.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 7-2 against the spread and the under has hit seven out of ten, and with good reason. Some overvalued BCS teams against some undervalued opponents. Let’s take NIU +13.5 and the over 58 as their only chance is to get into a shootout with the Seminoles.

Allstate Sugar Bowl – Jan. 2, 8:30pm EST ESPN

Florida v. Louisville

Two years in a row and we’ve a dud of a Sugar Bowl. Louisville doesn’t belong here and Florida has a case to make that they deserve to be #2. That’s got the making of an ugly game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Florida’s defense scores more points than Louisville’s offense.

Gambling angle: Let’s take Florida -13.5 and the under 45, in a truly ugly game.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl – Jan. 3, 8:30pm EST ESPN

Oregon v. Kansas State

Let’s call this the National Championship that could’a been. Both teams controlled their own destiny but stumbled down the stretch. And both teams are victims of the “we’re not in the SEC.” Until the SEC loses the title, that’s sadly, not gonna change. Still, the Fiesta Bowl is in my Top-3 games to watch this bowl season. Both teams are pretty solid all around, but it’s both teams offenses that make the headlines. Kansas State will be able to slow down the Ducks in a way similar to what Stanford did, but I’m not sure they can hold them to 14, especially seeing how Texas Tech, Baylor, and Texas moved the ball at will against Kansas State late in the year. And, the Ducks defense is underrated this year, for a change. This will be another exciting Fiesta Bowl (if we can block out the memory of the UConn-Oklahoma snooze fest a couple years ago). Oregon in a shoot out!  

Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered four of the last five Fiesta Bowls, but I can’t see Kansas State keeping up with Oregon for 48 minutes the way Stanford did. Let’s take Oregon -9 and the over 75.

AT&T Cotton Bowl – Jan. 4, 8:00pm EST FOX

Texas A&M v. Oklahoma

Once again the Cotton Bowl is played after the Orange and Sugar bowls this year, which is fitting as this is more of a BCS style match-up. Old Big 12 foes are at it, as Texas A&M surprised everyone in the SEC this year by beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa and bringing home the Heisman. Both teams average 40+ points/game and 500+ yards/game, so we know there’s gonna be a bunch of points, but as usual, I’ve gotta take the SEC over the Big-12, and A&M finishes their magical season with a win over their old rival.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 8-1 straight up over the Big-12 in this game. That will continue, and I like A&M -4.5; and the over has hit the last two here so I gotta take the over 71.5 with these two offenses.

BBVA Compass Bowl – Jan. 5, 1:00pm EST ESPN

Ole Miss v. Pitt

After 32 games we get Pittsburg v. Ole Miss on January 5^th? At least January 5^th is a Saturday and there’s probably something else to do.

Gambling angle: Let’s take Ole Miss -3.5 and the under 52 (again, only because I’m picking lines and O/U’s on every game).

GoDaddy.com Bowl – Jan. 6, 9:00pm EST ESPN

Kent State v. Arkansas State

So we’ve seen the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl, and Sugar Bowl – so it must be time for the National Championship, right? Nope. The bowl formally known as the GMAC bowl is played on January 6^th this year, and is one of three bowl games between the traditional big four and the championship. And, believe it or not, I’m actually okay with this. If we’re not going to have a playoff, but all means – let’s have games between Kent State and Arkansas State. At least we get a match-up of conference champions in this one; albeit the MAC and the Sunbelt. Arkansas State gets revenge against the MAC Champion this year.

Gambling angle: Favorites are 8-1-1 against the spread in this game, so let’s look to Arkansas State -4.5 and the over 62.

Discover BCS National Championship – Jan. 7, 8:30pm EST ESPN

Notre Dame v. Alabama

Two of the most storied traditions in college football history meet in the Championship. But they both got here on different paths. Alabama’s won two out of the last three Championships and were #1 in my preseason poll. Notre Dame hasn’t been relevant in nearly two years and wasn’t ranked at all in anyone’s polls. The Irish got here with defense, and luck. Alabama got here because the computers continue to have a soft spot for one-loss SEC teams; and why not? The SEC continues to dominate in this game. Notre Dame could easily get blown out in this game, but there were also a handful of games this year when that could’ve, and should’ve, happened. But it didn’t. The front seven of Notre Dame is unlike anything Alabama has faced this year. They keep Notre Dame in games, make plays, switch field position, and just don’t break, even when the Irish offense screws up and gives the opponent a short field. But, Saban is the best in the game at developing a game plan and preparing players. They’re only two losses the last two years were when the missed a bunch of FGs against LSU two years ago and when they got Manzieled (yes that’s a word) and fell down three TDs to A&M in the first quarter this year (and they could’ve easily won both those games). Notre Dame could’ve easily lost to Purdue, Stanford, Pitt, etc. I said it to Uncle Gene right when the match up was announced, and I’m sticking with it. Alabama 24 Notre Dame 13

Gambling angle: The SEC is 6-0 straight up and against the spread here, so gotta stick with that. Alabama -9.5 and the under 42.  

Well, that’s it for 2012’s college football season! From all of the editors, statisticians, researchers, and other contributors at the Autumn Wind (oh wait – it’s just me): Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Until next time year….

Bowl Preview - Part I

Here’s Part I of the 6^th annual edition of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview. I’ll break ‘em all down: 35 bowls, 70 teams, starting December 15^th and ending January 7^th, including some very intriguing match-ups in non-BCS bowls. Here’s the games, dates, times, TV coverage, and angles (for entertainment purposes only) up to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on December 31^st. I’ll post the update for the real bowl games next week. Enjoy the last few weeks of the 2012-2013 college football season!

Gildan New Mexico Bowl – Dec. 15, 1:00pm EST ESPN

Arizona v. Nevada

A match-up of 7-5 teams start off the 2012-2013 bowl season, and on paper UofSuck has the advantage here. But, Nevada has a strong offense and UofSuck has had problems stopping people. Really no reason to watch this game unless 1) you’re bored, 2) you like seeing a half empty stadium in cold Albuquerque, or 3) you want to guess the over/under on how many times the announcers say that UofSuck has the leading rusher in the nation (the Autumn Wind puts that number at 8.5).

Gambling angle: This is the 7^th New Mexico Bowl – and underdogs have not only covered, but won outright in four of the first six in this bowl series. In addition the over has hit in the last four. Let’s look for Nevada to cover the 9.5, perhaps winning outright, and even though the over is at 75, I think they’ll get there.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Dec. 15, 4:30pm EST ESPN

Utah State v. Toledo

Utah State versus Toledo is another “yawn” game, right? In the words of Corso, not so fast!! Utah State had two loses (@ Wisconsin and @ BYU) by a total of five points. Toledo’s only loses were in O.T. to UofSuck, Ball State, and BCS bound Northern Illinois. These boys can play! Utah State lost a barn burning to Ohio last year in this same bowl, and I like for them to get their first bowl win in school history.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 4-2-1 against the spread the last seven here, and three of the past five played to the over; neither of which are strong trends. I like Utah State at -7.5, but let’s take the under 58.5 as Utah State brings the nation’s 8^th best scoring defense.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – Dec. 20, 8:00pm EST ESPN

San Diego State v. BYU

Old Mountain West rivals meet up again in this one, just one season after BYU bolted for some other conference, or independent status, or something. Other than the absurd name of this bowl, that’s about all the coverage I’m going to give it.

Gambling angle: The Mountain West has won the past six here, but last year TCU didn’t cover. Let’s look for that again, San Diego State wins, but doesn’t cover. BYU +2.5, down to the wire, and gotta take the under 49 as BYU has the 5^th best scoring defense in the league.

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl – Dec 21, 7pm EST ESPN

Ball State v. UCF

If you don’t have anything better to do than watch this game, then go ahead and jump off of a cliff.

Gambling angle: This is the 5th Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, somehow it still keeps going. UCF should cover the -7, and I would think the under 61.5 is the play here, not that anyone will be watching.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Dec. 22, 12:00pm EST ESPN

Louisiana Lafayette v. East Carolina

All you need to know about this one is that both teams love to throw it around and both teams suck at preventing the other team from doing that. Louisiana Lafayette should come out on top though – yes, Louisana-Lafayette, as in the team that nearly beat Florida, not the other 8-4 Louisiana- team that beat Arkansas and nearly beat Auburn. Keep your Louisiana “dash” teams separate please.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 5-2 in the past seven and five of the the past six have played over the total. Gotta buck the trend here though and take LA-LF -5.5 and gotta love the over at 67.

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl – Dec. 22, 3:30pm EST ESPN

Boise State v. Washington

Washington beat Stanford and Oregon State, and kept it close against Oregon (at least in the first half and USC. But, they also got blown out by LSU, UofSuck, and lost to horrible Washington State. Boise’s quietly 10-2 with their only loses against Michigan State in the opener, and San Diego State late. Boise’s defense will keep them in this game, and they don’t fall into the Vegas trap like so many other teams heading to Viva Las Vegas for this bowl.

Gambling angle: I like Boise -5.5; and with ten of the last 14 Vegas Bowl’s hitting the under (forget about Boise nearly hitting the over themselves last year), I like the under 46 as both offenses will struggle to score against some pretty good defenses.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl – Dec. 24, 8:00pm ESPN

Southern Methodist v. Fresno State

As usual, tons of offense in the Hawaii Bowl, with both teams scoring over 30-40 a game, mostly through the air. Fresno State was a quiet 9-3, and SMU needed a win against Tulsa in the finale to become bowl eligible. Fresno State should win this one going away.

Gambling angle: Underdogs have won, and covered, three of the past four here (but that’s often when Hawaii’s been the “home” underdog), and seven of the last 10 have played over. I like SMU +11.5 and the over 59.5

Little Caesars Bowl – Dec. 26, 7:30pm EST ESPN

Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky

I like Little Caesars Pizza. That’s about all I’ll say about this game.

Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered four outta five and under total is 8-5 in last 13 Motor City…errrrr, Little Caesars Bowls. Central Michigan +5.5 and the under 58.5, I guess.

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman – Dec. 27 3:00pm EST ESPN

San Jose State v. Bowling Green

Nothing says Military Bowl like San Jose State and Bowling Green. San Jose State won 10 games, only losing to Stanford and Utah State. Bowling Green’s signature win was against Rhode Island, or Massachusetts. Seriously, what the hell are they doing in a bowl game?

Gambling angle: All four is this bowl’s history have played to the over; so I like the San Jose State -7.5 and the over 47.

Belk Bowl – Dec. 27, 6:30pm EST ESPN

Duke v. Cincinnati

The Belk Bowl should be changed this year to the “we’re used to underperforming in the post season” bowl – oh wait, we’re talking football here, not basketball. Cincy has won a share of the Big East for four straight seasons while Duke’s in a bowl game for the first time since 1994. Wait a minute. Cincy loses a tie breaker that would’ve sent them to a BCS game as Big East champ and instead they’re playing Duke in the Belk Bowl? That’s what’s wrong with college football, folks.

Gambling angle: Let’s take Cincy -7.5 and the under 58.5 (if you haven’t figured it out by now, this gambling “advice” is truly for entertainment purposes. Anyone who bets on this game needs to call 1-800-522-4700 immediately.

Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl – Dec. 28, 9:45pm EST ESPN

UCLA v. Baylor

Finally a bowl game with teams people have actually heard of. UCLA heads down the road to San Diego after losing back-to-backs to Stanford. Baylor’s 5^th in the nation in scoring offense but 117^th in scoring defense. Let’s get out the popcorn and have some fun!

Gambling angle: Interesting angle’s here: the PAC-10 doesn’t win (3-8 straight up), and favorites cover (11-3). Same story. I’ll take Baylor -1 and the over 74 as Baylor just can’t stop anyone.

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – Dec. 28, 2:00pm EST ESPN

Louisiana-Monroe v. Ohio

Everyone knows Lousiana-Monroe as the team that shocked Arkansas and then nearly beat Auburn and Baylor. Ohio is known as the team that beat Penn State in the opener and started off 7-0, but lost four out of their last five. That’s about all I care to say about this game as well. Louisiana-Monroe wins in their first ever bowl appearance.

Gambling angle: Favorites are 7-2 against the spread and the last three of the last four here played under. Let’s take Louisiana-Monroe -7 and the under 60, as both teams struggled down the stretch.

Russell Athletic Bowl – Dec. 28, 5:30pm ESPN

Virginia Tech v. Rutgers

Formerly the Champs Sports Bowl, it pits Rutgers (who started 9-1 and had a shot at a BCS bowl) against a Virginia Tech team that failed to win 10 games for the first time in nine years. Virginia Tech had all sorts of troubles scoring this year, and their usually reliable special teams were not very good either. And, Rutgers is a very good defensive team, only giving up about 14/game. The ACC has also struggled in this game against the Big East. The Scarlet Knights get the victory.

Gambling angle: The ACC is only 2-7 straight up in this game, and the under is 6-1 the past seven. I really like Rutgers +2.5 and the under 41.5.

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas – Dec. 28, 9:00pm EST ESPN

Texas Tech v. Minnesota

The old Texas Bowl is now the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas. The Big 10 is so bad that Minnesota with a 2-6 conference record gets to travel to Texas to take on Tech in a pretty much home game. Tech will throw the ball all over the field and Minnesota can’t. Tech will score a lot, and Minnesota won’t. Pretty easy pick here for Texas Tech.

Gambling angle: I like Texas Tech -13, as favorites are 7-2-2 against the spread in this bowl; and I like the over 57 as well as three of the past five played over, and Minnesota will struggle to contain Tech’s offense but still be able to put up some points on Tech’s defense.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl – Dec. 29, 11:45am EST ESPN

Air Force v. Rice

This is why I struggle with many of these bowl games. Rice started off 2-6 and is bowling. Air Force lost to Army and Navy, among others, but still almost beat Michigan in the Big House. I’ll watch this one because I like the Armed Forces TV commercials, and I like watching the triple option, especially against a crappy team like Rice.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 6-2 against the spread in this one, but this one is essentially a pick ‘em. The over/under has alternated eight of the last nine years, with last year’s predicted over missing by 1.5 points. I’ll take Air Force -1, and let’s take the under 61.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Dec. 29, 3:15pm EST ESPN

Syracuse v. West Virginia

West Virginia had preseason aspirations for both a Heisman trophy and a National Championship. But they needed a win late to become bowl eligible. Why? 116^th in the nation in scoring defense says a lot. Folks are giving Syracuse a chance in this game, but keep in mind they lost to Minnesota and only beat Stony Brook by 11. Sure they beat Louisville, but everyone knows Louisville was overrated. West Virginia wins, and wins big.

Gambling angle: I’ll take West Virginia -4 and the over 73.5 (West Virginia may get that on their own).

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl – Dec. 29 4:00pm EST ESPN

Arizona State v. Navy

Navy started off 1-3, but finished 7-1, including wins over both Air Force and Army. ASU struggled in the middle of their PAC-12 schedule, losing four straight, but finished strong with wins over Washington State and UofSuck (the only one that matters). This one will be all about Navy’s rushing game against ASU’s run defense. Vegas likes the Sun Devils a lot, and so do I.

Gambling angle: Let’s look at ASU -14.5 (biggest spread of the bowl season) and the over 56.

Valero Alamo Bowl – Dec. 29, 6:45pm EST ESPN

Oregon State v. Texas

The Big 12 has owned the PAC-12 in recent history in this game which bodes well for Texas. Both teams stumbled down the stretch, but this one’s worth watching as it’s the first bowl game this year against ranked teams. Oregon State has the better resume, and Texas struggled down the stretch. Let’s go Beavers!

Gambling angle: Trends for both the spread and O/U are pretty even here, so I gotta go with my gut. Overall, the PAC-12 was better than the Big 12 this year, so I like Oregon State -2 and the under 56.5.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl – Dec. 29, 10:15pm EST ESPN

Michigan State v. TCU

The Insight Bowl is now the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. Michigan State is 10^th in defense, but only 109^th offense. That explains why they lost all their games (with the exception of Notre Dame) by one, three, two, four, and three, respectively. TCU did well in their first year in the Big 12, with wins over Baylor, West Virginia, and Texas; and close loses against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. A close game is gonna favor the Horned Frogs – gotta go with TCU.    

Gambling angle: The over is 8-2 in this last ten here, and the Big-12 had won five straight of six v. Big-10. Gotta go with TCU -2.5 (as Michigan State always loses by a FG this year) and the over 41. Even though both defenses are strong, 41 is a low number, about as low as they get (in fact, it’s lower than the Alabama/ND O/U with is the matchup of the two best defenses in the game).

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Dec. 31, 12:00pm EST ESPN

Vanderbilt v. North Carolina State

I refuse to even acknowledge this game. Okay, the name of bowl is cool. That’s about it. (For those of you keeping track at home, I said the exact same thing about this game last year between

Gambling angle: I like Vandy -6.5 (favorites are 5-2-1 the last eight Music City bowls) and since eight of 11 have played under, I like the under 52.

Hyundai Sun Bowl – Dec. 31, 2:00pm EST CBS

Georgia Tech v. USC

Georgia Tech is back in the Sun Bowl again, but this time against a USC team that was the AP preseason #1 team (obviously the AP voters forget that Lame Kiffin can’t coach). Georgia Tech doesn’t even belong in this game, needing a waiver from the NCAA to get into a bowl game with a 6-7 record. They lost to Middle Tennessee by three TD’s for crying out loud.

Gambling angle: I’ll take USC -10 and the under 64.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Dec 31, 3:30pm EST ESPN

Tulsa v. Iowa State

September 1^st – Tulsa v. Iowa State. December 31^st – Tulsa v. Iowa State. At least this rematch isn’t a National Championship game. Iowa State won the first one, but Tulsa wins the rematch.

Gambling angle: The underdogs have covered seven out of eight here (doesn’t matter as this one’s a pick ‘em), and the under has hit nine out of the last 13. So, if I had to put action on this game, I’d take Tulsa in the pick ‘em and the under 51.5.

Chick-fil-A Bowl – Dec. 31, 7:30pm EST ESPN

LSU v. Clemson

In the last of the pre-New Year’s bowls, we have a matchup of ten win Tigers’ teams. Clemson’s only loses were to Florida State and South Carolina, and LSU’s only loses were to Alabama and Florida. That’s pretty impressive. We know the stats here – LSU plays great defense, but their offense has woken up as of late, and Clemson has scored on anyone and everyone – well, except for South Carolina. That’s enough of an indicator for me right there. The ACC just can’t compete with SEC defenses. LSU wins in a higher scoring game than many predict.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 5-2 straight up in the last seven here, so I like LSU -4; and the over 58.5 as both teams should be able to score.

Well that’s it for the pre-New Year’s Games!

Until next time…

Week 13 Recap and Week 14 Preview

Even after Notre Dame’s goal line stand late in the game (capping off an unthinkable season total of allowing -31 yards rushing in goal-to-go situations), I was still running through scenarios in my head. USC could get a safety and then run the kick back for a TD to tie it. But no, ND sealed it and is in the BCS Championship!!!!! Unbelievable.

Here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 13 Top-5 recap (gotta make it quick – elk hunt prep underway!):

1. You can’t win big games just by kicking FGs. Ask Alabama about how that worked for them last year in the regular season against LSU. Well, when you have the defense that Notre Dame does, and you’re playing against a fool of a coach like Lame Kiffin, you can get away with it. I’m sure there’s people out there still saying that Notre Dame is lucky, their schedule isn’t as tough as originally thought, blah, blah, blah; let’s face it - they’re undefeated for a reason. They just have found ways to win. And I’m not buying that they’ll lose by double digits to the eventual SEC Champion. They’ve shut up the critics all year – they were supposed to lose @ Michigan State, v. Michigan, @ Oklahoma, v. Stanford, @ USC, etc. but their defense just wouldn’t let it happen. Finally, a fun year to be an Irish fan!!!!! And, Notre Dame is the first football team to be ranked #1 in the polls and #1 in graduation success. Good for them.

2. Remember last week when I joked that the winner of the MAAC Championship between Kent State and Northern Illinois should take the Big East’s BCS spot? Well, it’s not looking like a joke. The winner of this game will likely be in top 16 and well ahead in the rankings over the Big East “champion,” so we’ll have a MAAC team in a BCS game, probably the Orange Bowl. Which means the Big East goes to the Sugar Bowl. And let’s not even think about what happens if Georgia Tech upsets Florida State in the ACC Championship. How pissed off are rest of the top 15 going to be, getting passed over in a BCS game by a crappy Big East team and a MAAC Champion? Is it playoff time yet? 

3. There’s always something magical about watching ASU come from behind and beat UofSuck, especially in Tucson. Two years ago, ASU blocked a couple kicks late and in O.T to shock the Cats, and this year the Devils poured on 24 in the 4^th via two picks and blocked punt. And I really wanted to throat punch the ESPN announcer that kept saying that the UofSuck kid was the leading rusher in the nation. Yeah, we heard you the first twelve times.

4. Oregon took care of business in the Civil War, but without a chance to win the PAC-12, they’re stuck in the same boat that Florida is. You know the Fiesta Bowl is excited to get the Ducks, especially with having been stuck with UConn last year. Many will see the Fiesta Bowl matchup between Oregon and Kansas State as the “what could’ve been” bowl with both teams ranked #1 and #2 just a couple weeks ago.

5. If ND’s defense is where offenses go to die, Alabama is where coaches go to die. Three of Alabama’s opponents this year have already let their coach go, and the season isn’t over yet. If Notre Dame should somehow beat ‘Bama, this may be the Autumn Wind’s finale. It will be hard to top that.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Notre Dame (12-0) – Remember the wins against Stanford, Oklahoma, and USC. And let’s just forget about needing Pitt to miss a FG to avoid a home loss; or that late FG you needed to beat the Purdue.

#2 Alabama (11-1) – One loss? Doesn’t matter.

#3 Georgia (11-1) – That embarrassing loss @ South Carolina can all be forgotten.

#4 Oregon (11-1) – What could’a been…

#5 Florida (11-1) – You’d be a scary first round matchup in a playoff.

#6 Kansas State (10-1) – Ditto to what I said about Oregon.

#7 LSU (10-2) – Imagine if you played defense in the fourth quarter at home against Alabama?

#8 Stanford (10-2) – What the hell happened in that Washington game earlier?

                                                                                                                     

#9 Texas A&M (10-2) – Johnny Football still has three years of eligibility left?

#10 South Carolina (10-2) – Spurrier spurs Clemson yet again.

Rising Fast:

The MAAC – BCS Busters!!!! I still think that if a non-AQ team is in the Top 16 and has a higher ranking than an AQ conference champion, the non-AQ should just get that spot and not tie up another spot. Yes, Big East, I’m talking to you.

Falling Faster:

Clemson and Florida State – Both got beat downs from their in-state big brothers from the SEC.

Heisman Watch:

Manti Te’o, Notre Dame – Remember how bad Manziel played in the second halves against Florida and LSU? Remember how bad Notre Dame’s offense is, and the reason they’re undefeated and #1 is because of that defense led by Te’o? If I had a vote, and someday I will, Manti is #1.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Notre Dame v. Alabama – Did you know Bear Bryant was 0-4 against Notre Dame?

Week 14 Big Games:

UCLA @ Stanford – Part II. Same result. Stanford wins 35 to 17 and heads to the Rose Bowl.

Northern Illinois v. Kent State – The MAAC Championship has BCS implications! Who says we need a playoff? Northern Illinois’ resume is better, losing to Iowa by a point; while Kent State got blown out by Kentucky. Northern Illinois 31 Kent State 27.

Texas @ Kansas State – The default Big 12 Championship. If K. State wins, they head to the Fiesta Bowl, if they lose Oklahoma gets the crown (assuming they beat TCU). Is this one sponsored by Dr. Pepper? Kansas State had a week to rest, and Texas had a week to fall apart. K State big – 52 to 24.

Nebraska v. Wisconsin – Another conference title rematch, with Nebraska needing to come from behind at home to win the first one. But, Nebraska’s been on fire since the blowout against Ohio State, and Wisconsin can’t win close games (losing in overtime to Michigan State, Ohio State, and Penn State; and losing by a FG to Nebraska and Oregon State). Nebraska wins in a close one and heads to the Rose Bowl, 31 to 28.

Week 14 Game of the Week:

Alabama v. Georgia – Imagine that, the winner of the SEC Championship goes to the BCS Championship. Again. This one’s in Georgia’s back yard, but I’ve liked Alabama all year. I was initially leaning towards the upset, but Alabama is just too much of a complete team, and they can turn foes into one dimensional teams when they get going early. And they will here again. Alabama 38 Georgia 24

Until next time…

Week 12 Recap and Week 13 Preview

And we once again have chaos in the BCS! It seemed that Oregon and Kansas State were in line to coast to Miami, but now they’re both on the outside looking in. And the current #1 and #2 don’t have an easy road either. ND has to go to USC and Alabama has the Iron Bowl and the SEC Championship. Florida may be in the best position of any team, assuming they can beat their fourth Top-10 ranked team of the year, which is a big if, at Florida State this weekend. Oregon needs lots of help – a Notre Dame loss, an Alabama loss to a Georgia team that needs to lose to Georgia Tech before the SEC Championship, a Stanford loss to UCLA; and not to mention an Oregon win against Oregon State and a win against UCLA in the PAC-12 Championship. I’m not sure how to feel that it is basically a four team race at this point: Notre Dame and three SEC teams. Is college football ready for another SEC/SEC match-up? Then again, is the college football world ready for a Big “10” with Maryland and Rutgers?

Here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 12 Top-10 recap:

1. I’ve mentally prepared myself for Notre Dame losing to USC all year. That’s just what happens to the Irish lately. But, they keep winning; they keep improving on offense; and that defense is right up there with Alabama, LSU, and Florida. Plus, Lame Kiffin is a well documented joke of a coach (four PAC-12 loses for the AP preseason #1 team?) and it is looking like Barkley won’t play with the nasty shoulder injury. Also, look at this stat: in their third seasons as coach of the Irish, Frank Leahy, Ara Parseghian, Dan Devine, Lou Holtz, and now Brian Kelly are a combined 61-2-1 in their third seasons with the previous four winning National Championships in their third season. Destiny? Luck of the Irish? About damn time Notre Dame is back? Nope, I tell ya, I’m mentally prepared for the loss on Saturday.

2. LSU needed two late scores to beat Ole’ Miss and if you made it past Les Miles’ odd rant in the post game press conference, you look at the standings and LSU has a chance to still play for the SEC Championship. Sure, it would require A&M beating Missouri (likely) and Auburn beating Alabama (no way in hell). 

3. The loss by Kansas State and the poor performance by Collin Klein has really opened up the Heisman race. But, other than Johnny Manziel, no one seems to be stepping out of the shadows (and it’s not like Te’o really ever had a chance). And, since the Heisman folks seem to never allow freshman into their elusive club, it looks like Klein will take the trophy, especially if he has a big game against Texas in a couple weeks.

4. Too bad there wasn’t more on the line in the Oklahoma/West Virginia game (other than in uncle Geno’s football pool). What a wild game: 1440 yards of total offense, 99 total point (should’ve been well over 100 but they both missed a couple 2-point conversions), and Oklahoma escapes Morgantown, and West Virginia still isn’t bowl eligible. They’re giving up more nearly 50/game during their five game skid.

5. I haven’t been able to tell how good Clemson is. Sure, they’ve ripped through that ACC schedule and they did put up 37 @ Florida State earlier in the year (outside of that game FSU is only giving up 10.6/game). I guess we’ll find out this week when they host South Carolina. A win, and a one loss Clemson team, could shake things up in the final standings.

6. I’ll say it again, I’m mentally prepared for Notre Dame to lose to USC, but I did get great admiration watching Kiffin on the sidelines as UCLA took it right to the Trojans and got out of there with a win and the PAC-12 South division. I wonder if Kiffin will be the next Arizona Cardinals coach?

7. Who would’ve thought that Michigan State would need a win against Minnesota this weekend to become bowl eligible? Well, when your seven conference games have been decided by 20 points (that’s less than three a game for the UofSuck math majors out there), that’s gonna happen.

8. Tom Osborne led the Huskers onto the field for their last game of the year, and Dr. Tom’s last game of his career, at Memorial Stadium. After an easy win over the Gophers, Nebraska is likely going to the Big 10 Championship Game and a shot at the Rose Bowl. The loss @ UCLA earlier in the year is looking better and better, but the blow out @ Ohio State still has to make the Husker Nation scream.

9. So Rutgers lost to Kent State and is likely gonna be the Big East representative in the BCS? How ‘bout the MAAC take that seat – I’d rather see Kent State or Northern Illinois in that game.

10. They say baseball is a game of inches. Don’t tell that to the Ducks. After Stanford scored the game tying TD in the final two minutes on a very close in-bounds call in the end zone, Oregon clonked a FG off the upright in O.T., barely missed out on a subsequent Stanford fumble, and watched Stanford squeak the game winning FG just inside the upright. A few inches either way and Oregon is still in business.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Notre Dame (11-0) – Even though I’m mentally prepared for you to lose to USC, please, please, PLEASE, beat them!!!!

#2 Alabama (10-1) – The Iron Bowl is still a rivalry game, isn’t it?

#3 Georgia (10-1) – Wins over Florida and potentially Alabama in the SEC Championship would make you deserving of a #2 spot. I think.

#4 Oregon (10-1) – Still gotta chance. Need a win in the Civil War, a UCLA win against Stanford, and you’re back in the picture. Chin up, Ducks.

#5 Florida (10-1) – If you don’t win your conference you can’t go to the….wait, how many times has this happened now?

#6 Kansas State (10-1) – Ouch.

#7 LSU (9-2) – Hmmmm, weren’t you sitting with two losses and in 7^th place in 2007? Hmmmm…

#8 Stanford (9-2) – That Washington loss really hurts now!! But, you’re still not in the PAC-12 Championship.

                                                                                                                     

#9 Texas A&M (9-2) – Do you think they want those second halves against Florida and LSU back?

#10 Florida State (10-1) – One point loss to some crappy team I can’t even remember (NC State, I think?) That’s the difference between #1 and #10.

Rising Fast:

Notre Dame – 11-0, #1 in the BCS for the first time ever, tied for 1^st in the nation in scoring defense (and they’ll return seven starters next year including the beasts Stephon Tuitt, Louis Nix, and Prince Shembo), a few great road wins, a few too many scares, and one win away from a championship appearance. Of course, it’s on the road at the Coliseum against long-time rival USC. Gulp.

Falling Faster:

Kansas State and Oregon – Win out, and you’re in!!! Now, you both need lots of help. But, stranger things have happened in the BCS era.

Heisman Watch:

Collin Klein, Kansas State – Klein’s gotta have a huge game against Texas, or I think the Heisman is going to a freshman for the first time ever. Johnny Football, grab your suit.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Florida v. Alabama – Yes, I’m calling it. Notre Dame loses to USC, Florida beats Florida State, and Alabama wins the SEC and we’re stuck with yet another SEC/SEC match-up. Sharpen your pitch forks and light your torches!

Week 13 Big Games:

Florida @ Florida State – It’s the first time this game has been relevant in over a decade. But it’s not Spurrier and Bowden anymore. These are both smash mouth teams, with FSU leading the country in total defense and Florida is third in the nation in scoring defense. Both teams have an outside chance of back dooring into the National Championship game but they both need a win here. Turnovers, field position, and rushing yards will make the difference in this game, and that often favors the home team. I’ll take Florida State 24 Florida 20.

Oregon @ Oregon State – On paper, Oregon should win this one big. But, it’s the Civil War, and it’s in Corvallis. But, Oregon’s won four straight in the series, and while their National Championship hopes were apparently dashed by Stanford last week, Oregon still has a shot at Miami. Oregon gets back into form. Oregon 54 Oregon State 30.

Stanford @ UCLA – Interesting game here. If Stanford wins, they claim the PAC-12 North and play UCLA again in the PAC-12 Championship. If they lose, and Oregon beats Oregon State, then Oregon plays UCLA in the Championship game. If Stanford loses and Oregon State beats Oregon, then tie breaker rules would go into effect to see who plays UCLA. If you’re UCLA would you rather play Stanford or Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship? Not that I’m suggesting they’d throw a game, but just sayin’… But, Stanford is a couple calls away from being undefeated and has a toughness that UCLA hasn’t seen. Stanford wins, and sets up the rematch, 31 to 24.

South Carolina @ Clemson – Both teams are ranked in the Top-15 in this contest for the first time in 25 years, and South Carolina is looking to win a fourth straight over their instate rival, something that’s only happened once in this series. There’s been a war of words with both coaches dating back to last year’s game, and the players are getting chippy as well. Clemson has a shot at a BCS at large bid with a win, and South Carolina doesn’t have much to play for except for pride. Clemson’s version of Death Valley is a tough place to play, as Clemson has won 13 straight at home. I like Clemson 38 to 27.

Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma – Bedlam. Both teams have a Top-10 offense and chance to make some noise in the Big 12. Oklahoma had owned this series until Oklahoma State blew out the Sooners last year. But that was in Stillwater. This is in Norman, where OSU hasn’t won in over a decade. Oklahoma can still win the Big 12 with a win and a K State loss @ Texas. Oklahoma has too much fire power, and that OSU team from last year is just a shell of itself. Oklahoma 45 Oklahoma State 31.

Week 13 Game of the Week:

Notre Dame @ USC – Remember 1964? Okay, I don’t, but USC knocked off undefeated #1 Notre Dame at the Coliseum. Can they do it again? Barkley’s out, but USC still has two of the top WR in the game. Notre Dame has survived crappy performances against crappy teams, but have managed to show up in the big games. Ask Oregon if they’d rather be lucky than good at this point. But, the luck of the Irish runs out – turnovers and special teams will play a factor in this one. USC 20 Notre Dame 17.

Until next time…