Ever since Notre Dame beat Florida State in 1993 (and then lost a let-down game the following weekend against Boston College by a FG) yet lost the National Championship vote to FSU, I’ve always ranted about the value of head-to-head results over anything else (given even records). Seems I have myself in a pickle now. By head-to-head results only, Auburn should be #3 and Notre Dame should be #4 (given their sole losses to the #1 and #2 teams in the country). But, they’re not. And sure, I think it’s still appropriate to have Oregon over Michigan State. But, now it gets hairy – UofSuck is sitting on one loss (and should’ve been a win with a near chip shot FG against USC that they made before the ‘SC timeout), but who in their right mind would rank them above Oregon? Not I, not anyone. Okay, let’s complicate things a bit more. Baylor beat TCU, but everyone (including me) has TCU higher than Baylor. Alabama lost to Ole Miss just a couple weeks ago, and with Ole Miss’ loss to LSU this weekend, the AP has them four spots behind Alabama. And then there’s Georgia, who’s frantically climbing up the polls, with their lone loss to a four-loss South Carolina team. Yep, I’m beginning to think head-to-head is meaningless; well not meaningless, but certainly less of a factor than 1) how teams lost (which is why both ASU and Ohio State are going to have hard time climbing much higher in the polls), 2) and when teams lost. Throw strength of schedule in there as well (which starts to favor Auburn and Oregon for their non-con wins against Kansas State and Michigan State), and we have the first Top-25 rankings from the playoff committee. More on that later as we get into this weekend’s Top-10 recap; well, make it Top-5 (I’m packing up for a deer hunt as we speak so I need to keep this short):
1) My take home from the LSU/Ole Miss game is threefold: the kicking game plays such a huge roll in college football (Ole Miss couldn’t decide if they wanted to try a FG to tie the game, go for more yards, go for the endzone, take a delay of game, call a timeout, or just let Bo be Bad Bo); never count out LSU at home, especially when they’re down in the 4th quarter (looking at you Alabama); and while the SEC-West is still leading the polls, but they’re going to continue to knock each other off at an alarming rate (not to mention that the SEC-East can help a bit with Georgia-Auburn in a few weeks).
2) Oregon’s offense is back firing on all cylinders, but their defense needs to pick it up some. The Ducks have below-standard Stanford team this weekend, and if they can finally get that Cardinal off their back, they have a very good chance at taking care of Utah in a couple weeks and then just letting the PAC-12 South beat each other up to decide who gets to get beat up by Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship.
3) Mississippi State won in their first game as a #1 ranked team, but they were taken to the wire by a pretty good Kentucky team. It’s another reminder that while many accuse there of being an SEC bias, the reality is the SEC is once again, top to bottom, better than any conference in the country. (Well, if you take out Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida)
4) Wouldn’t it be something if Kansas State wins @ TCU, @ West Virginia, and @ Baylor; with their lone loss being what should’ve been a win against Auburn (a team with as good a shot as any to win the SEC)? If that happens, Kansas State is in. And if the queen had balls, she’d be king.
5) While I find the intrigue behind this week’s first reveal of the committee’s Top-4, I also know that in the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t really matter. There’s too much football to play, and too many upsets yet to happen. But, my initial thoughts: I was surprised (yet agree) with Notre Dame at #10 (they haven’t beaten anyone). I was really surprised at Ole Miss at #3, given how poor their offense looks at time and that fact that they play Auburn this weekend, meaning at least one of the initial Top-4 is going down this weekend (queue the conspiracies about that’s how they want it to happen). Other than that, no major surprises for me. But again, it’s all going to sort itself out in the next month and with the way things are lining up, I think the Top-4 is going to be a lot clearer on December 7th than it is on October 28th. I still think the SEC gets two teams in though, with Oregon and Florida State rounding out the mix.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (7-0) – The last time you played Louisville, it was on the road, on Thursday night, you were #4, they were unranked, and you lost. Just sayin’.
#2. Mississippi State (7-0) – A win is a win is a win. Next up, Arkansas and UT Martin before you go to Tuscaloosa on November 15th. Get healthy, Dak.
#3. Auburn (6-1) – @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, @ Alabama remaining. Huge strength of schedule points if you can run the table.
#4. Alabama (7-1) – Bye week before you head to Death Valley.
#5. Oregon (7-1) – Your ole foe, the Cardinal, come to town this weekend; and they’re vulnerable for a change.
#6. Ole Miss (7-1) – You lose @ Death Valley (where no one wins at night) and everyone has forgotten about you? Maybe because you have no time to recover as Auburn comes to town this weekend.
#7. Michigan State (7-1) – Bye week for you too; then Ohio State comes to town for your last big matchup before the Big 10 Championship.
#8. Notre Dame (6-1) – Just please, God; beat Navy.
#9. Georgia (6-1) – Still can’t believe that the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party hasn’t been played by undefeated teams.
#10. TCU (6-1) – Careful @ Morgantown; remember WestByGod’s only two losses are to Alabama (by 10) and Oklahoma (by 12). WVU should probably be a bit higher in the rankings.
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – But how bad is his foot injury?
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Alabama
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Until FSU loses to Louisville this weekend.
Week 10 Big Games:
Florida State @ Louisville – What do Louisville, Alabama, and Ole Miss have in common? They’re the only teams in college football to have not given up more than 23 points in a game this year. The Cardinals’ are going to have to give up that or fewer if they’re going to have a chance, as their offense isn’t going to be able to play in a shootout with Florida State. But, Florida State is having more off the field problems (I mean, wonderful outstanding citizens in the classroom and off the field; as Jimbo puts it). And this is Thursday night, where ranked favorites on the road go to die. Why not; it’s the hipster pick, but I’ll pick it too; Louisville shakes things up: 31 to 27.
Stanford @ Oregon – Oregon’s National Title march was derailed each of the last two years by Stanford, but the difference in this one is this: each of the last three years, Stanford wound up in a BCS game. Not so this year. Stanford is still physical on both sides of the ball, but Oregon is getting healthy at the right time. Oregon finally gets by the Cardinal, and solidifies their claim to a top-4 spot in the polls: Oregon 37 Stanford 24.
TCU @ West Virginia – We know TCU isn’t going to put up 80 in Morgantown, and we know that WVU’s two losses were to two quality teams: Alabama and Oklahoma. What we don’t know is if TCU’s defense is going to show back up after giving up 33 to Oklahoma, 61 to Baylor, and 27 to Texas Tech. But, West Virginia only beat Texas Tech by three, and TCU beat them by 55. Let the Horned Frogs keep rolling: TCU 44 West Virginia 31.
UofSuck @ UCLA – UofSuck is one FG away from being undefeated; or at least that’s what the pundits will tell you. They must have forgotten that they needed a 36 point 4th quarter against Cal to win, and almost lost to Nevada and the Fighting Roadrunners at UTSA. UCLA has underachieved all season, and look for that to continue. Whatever you do, take the over. I like UofSuck 48 UCLA 45.
Utah @ Arizona State – After giving up 62 to UCLA and 34 to USC, ASU suddenly learned how to play defense – only giving up 10/each in wins against Stanford and Washington. Utah has gone Stanford on us; not only are they big and physical, but they can’t play a game that’s decided by more than seven points – they’re four PAC-12 games have been decided by a total of 12 points. You east coasters will have to read about this one since it doesn’t kick-off until 11:00pm Eastern time. Too bad. You’re missing out on an Arizona State team starting to peak at the right time: ASU 30 to 24.
Week 10 Game of the Week:
Auburn @ Ole Miss – Ole Miss needs to dust itself off quick. After the upset to LSU, Auburn brings a much better offense into this one; though Ole Miss still has the #1 scoring defense in the country. Here’s the scary thing – Auburn won the turnover battle against LSU 4-1, gave up 10 points, and lost. Why? LSU lined up and hammered it time and time again inside the tackles. You’ll see the same thing here, but instead of the play action pass being freed up by the inside running game, the outside options are going to allow Auburn to run wild. Ole Miss goes down two weeks in a row: Auburn 27 Ole Miss 20.
Until next time…
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Week 8 Recap and Week 9 Preview
Two more unbeatens go down, and now the SEC has four teams in the Top-5; the first time that’s ever happened (one conference having four in the top five), and they’re all in the same division! My bet that the SEC will have two in the Final Four is looking better and better, and there are some scenarios where they could have three teams. Heck, I’ve even seen a fourth scenario where they wind up all four slots, but that is predicated by FSU losing twice, which isn’t going to happen. They are vulnerable though, as they were largely outplayed and outcoached in Tallahassee by a Notre Dame squad with half the talent. Here’s the Top 10 recap:
1) Let’s just get it over with right away: yes, it was a pick play. Notre Dame dared the ref’s to call it, and they did (even the head referee mouthed “are you sure?” when told of the foul). The two most unfortunate things about the play (other than the FSU player that tore his helmet off after the play and could’ve been flagged for that): 1) the Irish TD in the first half was an actual real pick and wasn’t called (and it should’ve been called) and 2) the final pick play wasn’t even necessary as Robinson was so wide open from blown coverage that the other two Irish receivers could’ve just stood on the line and not moved. As Kelly said: “they were rewarded for blown coverage.”
2) One last comment about FSU before we move on to the SEC and other conferences. I almost puked during Jimbo’s post game comments when he said that Florida State “is a high-character program that’s ran the right way, on class, on dignity, in the classroom, off the field, and this team shows it.” That reminded me of the All Valley Tournament scene in Karate Kid III when Terry Silver hypocritically talked about importance of giving back to the community through the self-confidence and inner peace instilled by Karate, and the virtues of honesty, compassion, and fair play. Sorry Jimbo, we ain’t buying it. I miss the days of Jimmy Johnson’s Miami teams where they didn’t pretend they weren’t criminals – they embraced it.
3) Of all the Top-15 teams, the one that I still don’t have a good read on is Kansas State. They’re just outside the Top-10 and are the only team remaining in the Big 12 that is undefeated in conference play. They got lucky to beat Oklahoma this weekend (ever seen one of the best kickers in the game hook a 19 yard FG wide left by 30 feet?), but also were in a great position to beat Auburn. Then again, they struggled @ Iowa State but looked great against Texas Tech. Even though they’re sitting in first in the Big 12 right now, they still have @ TCU, @ West Virginia, and @ Baylor. I don’t think they’re going to be sitting in first for long.
4) Everyone seems to have forgotten about the Big 10 after Ohio State’s loss to Virginia Tech and Michigan State’s loss to Oregon. But, those teams haven’t loss since, and they bring in the 3rd and 4th scoring offenses in the country. Sure, part of that is their competition, but don’t think that a one loss Big 10 Champion doesn’t have legitimate claim to be in the Top-4. Especially if it winds up being Michigan State which would have a win over Ohio State and two wins over Nebraska, with their sole loss to Oregon (who’s chances to win the PAC-12 and get in the playoff are getting better and better by the weekend). I can see it now – the Final Four winds up being two teams from the SEC-West and Michigan State and Oregon (assuming Florida State losses again somewhere along the way – oh wait, that’s right, they didn’t lose to Notre Dame. Grrr……right up there with the phantom clip against Colorado in the ’91 Orange Bowl or the Reggie Bush “I’ll just illegally push Matt Leinart into the endzone” in 2005). Oh wait, where was I? That’s right – imagine if the Final Four winds up being two rematches! So much for the “every week is a playoff” crowd…
5) Two reason’s you can tell it’s almost November: Alabama is back in the Top-5 in scoring defense, and Georgia is probably the best one loss team in the country. From the opening minutes, Alabama took it straight to Texas A&M and finally exposed the Aggie offense as a unit that lost their QB, best WR, and left tackle to the NFL. And, even without Gurley for the last two weeks, Georgia’s running game hasn’t missed a beat, and they’re not running away with the SEC-East. That cross-divisional game with Auburn in a few weeks seems to be the Bulldogs last major chance for a stumble before the SEC Championship Game. Speaking of Auburn – they have @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, and @ Alabama remaining. That quite possibly could be three more losses. Safe to the say, even though they have four in the Top-5 right now, the SEC-West isn’t done beating each other up.
6) West Virginia lost the turnover battle 0-3, but still beat Baylor. How? Well, Baylor’s 18 penalties sure didn’t help. But, with the score tied at 27 going into the 4th quarter, West Virginia’s defense really tightened down and kept Bryce Perry and crew in check. That’s something you haven’t heard much about in the Baylor-West Virginia matchups the last couple of years: defense. Great win in Morgantown for the Mountaineers, and if they keep winning, that’s going to help out Alabama with strength-of-schedule points.
7) Whenever people start to doubt Oregon, it seems Washington shows up on their schedule. After struggling against Washington State and losing to UofSuck, the Ducks took care of Oregon, and then blasted Washington like they always do – that’s not 11 straight years of 17+ point wins in the cross state matchup. With Stanford losing yet again, all of the sudden, November 8th @ Utah seems to be the Ducks last major hurdle before the PAC-12 Championship and a likely spot in the Top-4.
8) So who is Oregon going to face from the PAC-12 South? There’s a log jam happening right now, as four teams are sitting at one less, with USC holding the tie breaker over UofSuck, ASU holding the tie breaker over USC, and Utah having to play all three (plus Oregon and Stanford). It’s looking like the Territorial Cup may decide the PAC-12 South, assuming both ASU and UofSuck can hold serve until the last weekend in November. Regardless, for a team that gave up 62 to UCLA and was left for dead, I’ve been impressed with how ASU has responded by not quitting against USC in the Coliseum and by dominating a Stanford team on both sides of the ball. It should be noted that the PAC-12 South has four out of their five teams ranked in the Top 25. Take that, SEC West!
9) The old saying in college football is that it’s better to lose early than late. In the case of TCU, not only is it better to lose early than late, but also to not play anyone late. By the time LSU and Alabama tee it off late on November 8th, TCU will be done with their last real challenge against Kansas State. After that, they have Kansas, Texas, and Iowa State to close the season with no Conference Championship. If they find themselves in the top six or seven going into that game, they may just sneak into the Top-4 via attrition as here’s the other big games happening on November 8th or later: Ohio State @ Michigan State, Notre Dame @ Arizona State, Baylor @ Oklahoma, Mississippi State @ Alabama, Auburn @ Georgia, K State @ West Virginia, UCLA @ USC, Mississippi State @ Ole Miss, Auburn @ Alabama, Notre Dame @ USC, Kansas State @ Baylor, Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma, and the Big 10, PAC-12, SEC, and ACC Conference Championships. TCU’s got a great chance to not only win the Big 12 but to coast into the Top-4.
10) Regardless of what happens in the next seven or eight weeks, the committee is going to have their hands full – especially if they continue to state putting a high value on the result of head-to-head matchups. Michigan State is out because of the loss the Oregon. Same for Notre Dame at the hands of FSU. Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl losers? Out. No one wants to see those matchups again. So then you have to start looking at good losses versus bad losses. All those mentioned above are “good losses.” Oregon going to down to UofSuck, Georgia to South Carolina? Not so much. Yet, interestingly enough, Georgia and Oregon are playing some of the best football right now. The most interesting scenario is what happens if a one loss Georgia beats an undefeated Mississippi (or State) team in the SEC Championship. Georgia’s in for sure. But now you have a likely one loss team (or maybe two – winner of Iron Bowl may end with one loss) that didn’t make the conference championship and a one loss team that just lost the conference championship but beat their in-state rival the week before. Ah, my head hurts. Hopefully it’ll all be straightened out on the field in the next eight weeks, and given the history, it will. Even if there’s only one second left…
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (7-0) – After Louisville next week, their last “tough” game will be the ACC Championship against Duke or Pitt. But, I’m giving Louisville a chance – at home, on Thursday night…
#2. Mississippi State (6-0) – I don’t have you at #1 because you still have @ Alabama and @ Ole Miss (let alone the SEC Championship against Georgia – if you make it that far).
#3. Ole Miss (7-0) – @ LSU this weekend before Auburn comes to town next weekend. It’s a TRAP! Death Valley @ night. Good luck.
#4. Auburn (6-1) – @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, @ Alabama remaining, and don’t sleep against South Carolina this weekend.
#5. Alabama (6-1) – If you win @ Death Valley in three weeks, you lose v. Mississippi State the following weekend. If you lose @ LSU, you probably beat MSU. Regardless, another loss is coming, as Auburn’s still out there, too. Just not against Tennessee or Western Carolina.
#6. Oregon (6-1) – You might actually be able to beat Stanford this year is you can score 14+ points, as Stanford can’t seem to score more than 10-14 points against good teams.
#7. Michigan State (6-1) – Needs to run the table and needs SEC and PAC-12 losses to pile up.
#8. Notre Dame (6-1) – Ok, fine; you’re a top-10 team. Now just don’t blow it against Navy in a couple weeks.
#9. Georgia (6-1) – Just might be the best team in the whole SEC right now, and that’s saying a lot.
#10. TCU (6-1) – Up 21 @ Baylor with 11 minutes to go and you couldn’t seal the deal. The committee is going to remember that.
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Vegas is giving the best odds to Mariota right now; I’m guessing they’re just trying to recoup some money based on the payouts they’re going to have to make when Dak wins.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Auburn
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – I wonder if the refs will throw a flag in the closing seconds of this one?
Week 9 Big Games:
USC @ Utah – Utah is off to a 5-1 start, but their three PAC-12 games have been decided by a total of nine points. They did blow out Michigan in the Big House, but that’s not saying much this year. USC’s two losses came inexplicably to Boston College and that bizarre Hail Mary against ASU. Not sure what to expect in this one, except that Utah is similar in mold to Stanford (which almost beat USC) and Boston College – a physical line, power running game, and strong defense. Let’s take the Utes in a slugfest: 27 to 24.
Alabama @ Tennessee – Alabama 38 Tennessee 10 (if I don’t include this game every year I get yelled at from too many people in the South).
Week 9 Game of the Week:
Ole Miss @ LSU – Many folks are saying the LSU is going to pull the upset here; that Bo Wallace is due to make some more mistakes, and that LSU can’t possibly lose another one in Death Valley at night. They’re also point to their last two games to show that the Tigers’ have turned things around after their first two SEC games. Well, of course they looked better against Florida and Kentucky than against Mississippi State and Auburn! The Rebels and their #1 scoring defense keep rolling – Mississippi 38 LSU 27.
Until next time…
1) Let’s just get it over with right away: yes, it was a pick play. Notre Dame dared the ref’s to call it, and they did (even the head referee mouthed “are you sure?” when told of the foul). The two most unfortunate things about the play (other than the FSU player that tore his helmet off after the play and could’ve been flagged for that): 1) the Irish TD in the first half was an actual real pick and wasn’t called (and it should’ve been called) and 2) the final pick play wasn’t even necessary as Robinson was so wide open from blown coverage that the other two Irish receivers could’ve just stood on the line and not moved. As Kelly said: “they were rewarded for blown coverage.”
2) One last comment about FSU before we move on to the SEC and other conferences. I almost puked during Jimbo’s post game comments when he said that Florida State “is a high-character program that’s ran the right way, on class, on dignity, in the classroom, off the field, and this team shows it.” That reminded me of the All Valley Tournament scene in Karate Kid III when Terry Silver hypocritically talked about importance of giving back to the community through the self-confidence and inner peace instilled by Karate, and the virtues of honesty, compassion, and fair play. Sorry Jimbo, we ain’t buying it. I miss the days of Jimmy Johnson’s Miami teams where they didn’t pretend they weren’t criminals – they embraced it.
3) Of all the Top-15 teams, the one that I still don’t have a good read on is Kansas State. They’re just outside the Top-10 and are the only team remaining in the Big 12 that is undefeated in conference play. They got lucky to beat Oklahoma this weekend (ever seen one of the best kickers in the game hook a 19 yard FG wide left by 30 feet?), but also were in a great position to beat Auburn. Then again, they struggled @ Iowa State but looked great against Texas Tech. Even though they’re sitting in first in the Big 12 right now, they still have @ TCU, @ West Virginia, and @ Baylor. I don’t think they’re going to be sitting in first for long.
4) Everyone seems to have forgotten about the Big 10 after Ohio State’s loss to Virginia Tech and Michigan State’s loss to Oregon. But, those teams haven’t loss since, and they bring in the 3rd and 4th scoring offenses in the country. Sure, part of that is their competition, but don’t think that a one loss Big 10 Champion doesn’t have legitimate claim to be in the Top-4. Especially if it winds up being Michigan State which would have a win over Ohio State and two wins over Nebraska, with their sole loss to Oregon (who’s chances to win the PAC-12 and get in the playoff are getting better and better by the weekend). I can see it now – the Final Four winds up being two teams from the SEC-West and Michigan State and Oregon (assuming Florida State losses again somewhere along the way – oh wait, that’s right, they didn’t lose to Notre Dame. Grrr……right up there with the phantom clip against Colorado in the ’91 Orange Bowl or the Reggie Bush “I’ll just illegally push Matt Leinart into the endzone” in 2005). Oh wait, where was I? That’s right – imagine if the Final Four winds up being two rematches! So much for the “every week is a playoff” crowd…
5) Two reason’s you can tell it’s almost November: Alabama is back in the Top-5 in scoring defense, and Georgia is probably the best one loss team in the country. From the opening minutes, Alabama took it straight to Texas A&M and finally exposed the Aggie offense as a unit that lost their QB, best WR, and left tackle to the NFL. And, even without Gurley for the last two weeks, Georgia’s running game hasn’t missed a beat, and they’re not running away with the SEC-East. That cross-divisional game with Auburn in a few weeks seems to be the Bulldogs last major chance for a stumble before the SEC Championship Game. Speaking of Auburn – they have @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, and @ Alabama remaining. That quite possibly could be three more losses. Safe to the say, even though they have four in the Top-5 right now, the SEC-West isn’t done beating each other up.
6) West Virginia lost the turnover battle 0-3, but still beat Baylor. How? Well, Baylor’s 18 penalties sure didn’t help. But, with the score tied at 27 going into the 4th quarter, West Virginia’s defense really tightened down and kept Bryce Perry and crew in check. That’s something you haven’t heard much about in the Baylor-West Virginia matchups the last couple of years: defense. Great win in Morgantown for the Mountaineers, and if they keep winning, that’s going to help out Alabama with strength-of-schedule points.
7) Whenever people start to doubt Oregon, it seems Washington shows up on their schedule. After struggling against Washington State and losing to UofSuck, the Ducks took care of Oregon, and then blasted Washington like they always do – that’s not 11 straight years of 17+ point wins in the cross state matchup. With Stanford losing yet again, all of the sudden, November 8th @ Utah seems to be the Ducks last major hurdle before the PAC-12 Championship and a likely spot in the Top-4.
8) So who is Oregon going to face from the PAC-12 South? There’s a log jam happening right now, as four teams are sitting at one less, with USC holding the tie breaker over UofSuck, ASU holding the tie breaker over USC, and Utah having to play all three (plus Oregon and Stanford). It’s looking like the Territorial Cup may decide the PAC-12 South, assuming both ASU and UofSuck can hold serve until the last weekend in November. Regardless, for a team that gave up 62 to UCLA and was left for dead, I’ve been impressed with how ASU has responded by not quitting against USC in the Coliseum and by dominating a Stanford team on both sides of the ball. It should be noted that the PAC-12 South has four out of their five teams ranked in the Top 25. Take that, SEC West!
9) The old saying in college football is that it’s better to lose early than late. In the case of TCU, not only is it better to lose early than late, but also to not play anyone late. By the time LSU and Alabama tee it off late on November 8th, TCU will be done with their last real challenge against Kansas State. After that, they have Kansas, Texas, and Iowa State to close the season with no Conference Championship. If they find themselves in the top six or seven going into that game, they may just sneak into the Top-4 via attrition as here’s the other big games happening on November 8th or later: Ohio State @ Michigan State, Notre Dame @ Arizona State, Baylor @ Oklahoma, Mississippi State @ Alabama, Auburn @ Georgia, K State @ West Virginia, UCLA @ USC, Mississippi State @ Ole Miss, Auburn @ Alabama, Notre Dame @ USC, Kansas State @ Baylor, Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma, and the Big 10, PAC-12, SEC, and ACC Conference Championships. TCU’s got a great chance to not only win the Big 12 but to coast into the Top-4.
10) Regardless of what happens in the next seven or eight weeks, the committee is going to have their hands full – especially if they continue to state putting a high value on the result of head-to-head matchups. Michigan State is out because of the loss the Oregon. Same for Notre Dame at the hands of FSU. Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl losers? Out. No one wants to see those matchups again. So then you have to start looking at good losses versus bad losses. All those mentioned above are “good losses.” Oregon going to down to UofSuck, Georgia to South Carolina? Not so much. Yet, interestingly enough, Georgia and Oregon are playing some of the best football right now. The most interesting scenario is what happens if a one loss Georgia beats an undefeated Mississippi (or State) team in the SEC Championship. Georgia’s in for sure. But now you have a likely one loss team (or maybe two – winner of Iron Bowl may end with one loss) that didn’t make the conference championship and a one loss team that just lost the conference championship but beat their in-state rival the week before. Ah, my head hurts. Hopefully it’ll all be straightened out on the field in the next eight weeks, and given the history, it will. Even if there’s only one second left…
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (7-0) – After Louisville next week, their last “tough” game will be the ACC Championship against Duke or Pitt. But, I’m giving Louisville a chance – at home, on Thursday night…
#2. Mississippi State (6-0) – I don’t have you at #1 because you still have @ Alabama and @ Ole Miss (let alone the SEC Championship against Georgia – if you make it that far).
#3. Ole Miss (7-0) – @ LSU this weekend before Auburn comes to town next weekend. It’s a TRAP! Death Valley @ night. Good luck.
#4. Auburn (6-1) – @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, @ Alabama remaining, and don’t sleep against South Carolina this weekend.
#5. Alabama (6-1) – If you win @ Death Valley in three weeks, you lose v. Mississippi State the following weekend. If you lose @ LSU, you probably beat MSU. Regardless, another loss is coming, as Auburn’s still out there, too. Just not against Tennessee or Western Carolina.
#6. Oregon (6-1) – You might actually be able to beat Stanford this year is you can score 14+ points, as Stanford can’t seem to score more than 10-14 points against good teams.
#7. Michigan State (6-1) – Needs to run the table and needs SEC and PAC-12 losses to pile up.
#8. Notre Dame (6-1) – Ok, fine; you’re a top-10 team. Now just don’t blow it against Navy in a couple weeks.
#9. Georgia (6-1) – Just might be the best team in the whole SEC right now, and that’s saying a lot.
#10. TCU (6-1) – Up 21 @ Baylor with 11 minutes to go and you couldn’t seal the deal. The committee is going to remember that.
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Vegas is giving the best odds to Mariota right now; I’m guessing they’re just trying to recoup some money based on the payouts they’re going to have to make when Dak wins.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Auburn
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – I wonder if the refs will throw a flag in the closing seconds of this one?
Week 9 Big Games:
USC @ Utah – Utah is off to a 5-1 start, but their three PAC-12 games have been decided by a total of nine points. They did blow out Michigan in the Big House, but that’s not saying much this year. USC’s two losses came inexplicably to Boston College and that bizarre Hail Mary against ASU. Not sure what to expect in this one, except that Utah is similar in mold to Stanford (which almost beat USC) and Boston College – a physical line, power running game, and strong defense. Let’s take the Utes in a slugfest: 27 to 24.
Alabama @ Tennessee – Alabama 38 Tennessee 10 (if I don’t include this game every year I get yelled at from too many people in the South).
Week 9 Game of the Week:
Ole Miss @ LSU – Many folks are saying the LSU is going to pull the upset here; that Bo Wallace is due to make some more mistakes, and that LSU can’t possibly lose another one in Death Valley at night. They’re also point to their last two games to show that the Tigers’ have turned things around after their first two SEC games. Well, of course they looked better against Florida and Kentucky than against Mississippi State and Auburn! The Rebels and their #1 scoring defense keep rolling – Mississippi 38 LSU 27.
Until next time…
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Week 7 Recap and Week 8 Preview
We’re down to six unbeaten teams (well, five, since Marshall really doesn’t count), and at least one more is going down this weekend as Notre Dame travels to Tallahassee and we know the Egg Bowl will claim another before it’s said and done. It’s starting to look like 2007 where we wound up with no undefeated teams and ended up with a two loss LSU team winning it all. Only six unbeatens after week 7? Last year at this stage there were 14, and the year before 12. Call if parity, call it scheduling, call it coaching, call it something; but it sure is fun to watch as we pass the midpoint of the season and head down the stretch. Here’s the Top 10 recap:
1) Thanks to Washington, the “ice the kicker” timeouts are back in style. I see those work maybe once every three or four years. Well in Tucson this weekend (after ya’ll went to bed), Washington iced the kicker twice, at the end of the first half and the end of the game. The result? Both kicks were good, timeouts were called split seconds before the kicks, and the both second kicks missed or were blocked. The last one cost UofSuck the game. The most interesting part of that game was that despite their undefeated record and Top-10 ranking, UofSuck was a home underdog to an unranked USC team. A two point underdog. Final score: 28-26, USC. Man, those guys in Vegas are good.
2) UCLA falls to Oregon at home, giving the Ducks the clear path once again to the PAC-12 Championship. But, it’s becoming abundantly clear that home field “advantage” is not an advantage in the PAC-12 this year. In conference play, home teams are only 4-14 at home. That’s great when you’re Oregon going to Pasadena, but it doesn’t look so great when Stanford’s coming Eugene in three weeks, not to mention Washington this week.
3) It took Gurley getting suspended to wake up Georgia’s defense, and the Bulldogs went into Missouri and blew out the Tigers (being home isn’t so nice in the SEC either, right Texas A&M). Georgia had the ball for almost ¾ of the game, and Missouri was o’fer on third down and turned it over five times and never stood a chance. That Georgia loss @ South Carolina seems so long ago, and Georgia’s not only right back into things in the SEC East but right back into the Top-10.
4) The Fighting Irish gave up 43 points to an average (at best) North Carolina team, but still won. That’s the most points they’ve ever given up in a game and still won. You know what else is giving it up? Everett Golson. Nine turnovers in the last three games for the Irish QB, and they’re 3-0. That’s fine against the likes of Syracuse and North Carolina (and even “we always play good teams to a margin of victory of seven or less” Stanford), but that isn’t going to work this weekend at Notre Dame heads to Florida State for their first true road game of the year. A FSU team that is falling in the major polls faster than Obama’s approval rating, despite continuing to win.
5) Even when Baylor found themselves down to a really good TCU team by 21 points with just over 11 minutes to play, you still had that feeling that if anyone was going to pull off the victory, it would be Bryce Petty and company. No lead is safe against Baylor’s offense, but they have to get that defense figured out. Especially heading to dangerous Morgantown this weekend (upset alert?)
6) Alabama hasn’t looked great all season, and as the critics get a bit louder, Saban is getting a bit more irritated. They did hang on against a good Arkansas team though, even if it was the refs that helped them out a bit at the end. Still, at this point in the year, a win is a win. And, scheduling is lining up in their favor, with home games against A&M, LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn. If home field means anything anymore. Keep in mind, since joining the SEC, A&M is winless at home against ranked teams, but has won more than half of those games on the road.
7) Despite Texas sucking this year, and Oklahoma being pretty good, we finally had a close Red River shootout. Oklahoma’s been a beneficiary of good scheduling too, as the Sooners are now 32-0 following a regular season loss since 2000. Oklahoma needs to take care of K State this weekend, and then not fall on the road to Iowa State (TRAP GAME) before Baylor comes to town for the defacto Big 12 Championship on November 8th.
8) Don’t tell Oklahoma State I said that. Since barely losing to FSU in week one, the Cowboys have rattled off five straight and are back in the Top-15. They gotta head to TCU this weekend though, and I don’t think the Horned Frogs are going to give up 21 point 4th quarter leads again. And, the Cowboys close with games against Baylor and Oklahoma, so they could still make some noise in the Big 12, or at least play spoiler.
9) In the only big game result I missed last weekend (5-1 ain’t bad, 18-9 overall), Mississippi went into College Station and dominated the #3 scoring offense in the nation. In some ways, this was more impressive than last week’s huge win against Alabama. Yet, despite starting 6-0 for the first time in more than 50 years, Ole Miss is still playing red-headed step child to their neighbors from Starkville.
10) I’ve been saying all year that we’ve got a bunch of good to great teams this year, but not one or two dominate teams. I’ve been wrong. Mississippi State has rattled off three straight victories against Top-10 foes, and find themselves coasting into a bye week as the #1 team in the major polls (but not my poll; sorry, FSU’s path to undefeatedhood is still much easier that Miss St’s). Dak Prescott is the Heisman winner unless something completely crazy happens, and their schedule lightens up a bit with the bye and four of their next five against Kentucky, Arkansas, UT Martin, and Vanderbilt. Assuming they get by Kentucky, November 15th @ Alabama will be a huge game, but don’t forget that’s the week after ‘Bama goes to LSU. Things are good for the state of Mississippi!
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (6-0) – Despite how bad you’ve looked at times, I just can’t move you down when you keep winning.
#2. Mississippi State (6-0) – For the purposes of the playoff, #2 is just as good as #1, so don’t worry, Dak.
#3. Baylor (6-0) – You thought Notre Dame giving up 43 and winning was impressive? The Bears gave up 25 more than that and still won!
#4. Ole Miss (6-0) – A loss is looming, I know it.
#5. Auburn (5-1) – Best one loss team in the country right now.
#6. Alabama (5-1) – Need to get some things cleaned up to stay in the picture.
#7. Notre Dame (6-0) – I still don’t think you’re a Top-10 team (maybe if I keep saying this, it’ll work!). Flashback to ’93 coming up this weekend!
#8. Oregon (5-1) – It sure helps when your o-line actually blocks every once in a while.
#9. Michigan State (5-1) – Still can’t have you above Oregon when you lost to them.
#10. (Georgia (5-1) – Remember us?
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – But, Bryce Perry can close the gap a bit with another big performance against Oklahoma State.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Auburn
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Baylor
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Who would’ve thought seven weeks ago that the best shot for the SEC to regain the Championship was via one of the Mississippi schools?
Week 8 Big Games:
Kansas State @ Oklahoma – Kansas State’s only blemish is against Auburn, a game they really should’ve won. Oklahoma went down to TCU a couple weeks ago, but overall has been less then stellar in Big 12 play, struggling against the likes of Texas and West Virginia. I think Oklahoma is still benefitting from their win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl – i.e. they’re overrated. I like Kansas State and their stellar defense to pull the upset in Norman: 27 to 20.
Texas A&M @ Alabama – The last two versions of this game have been downright classics – Johnny Football storming off to a three TD lead in Tuscaloosa two years ago and then holding on to win, and last year’s slug fest revenge win for ‘Bama. Not as much hype leading up to this one, as Texas A&M still hasn’t figured out how to play defense, and Alabama is being forgotten about as all of the hype is on the Mississippi schools. Look for Kiffin and Saban and pull off the gloves in this one, and Alabama wins with some style points: 45 to 27.
Oklahoma State @ TCU – TCU is an epic collapse away from being in the Top-5, and most people forget that Oklahoma State took FSU down to the wire in week 1. Safe to say, if TCU scores 58 this weekend, they’re not losing; and they might score that many as they’re the #3 scoring team in the country, along with that usually (except for last weekend) stingy defense. Look for TCU to fix some things in the secondary, put up a bunch more points, and keep their Big 12 title hopes alive. TCU 45 Oklahoma State 33.
Stanford @ Arizona State – Stanford brings the #1 scoring defense into Tempe this weekend, to take on the Sun Devils, whom they’ve owned recently (beating ASU handily both times they played last year). Stanford hasn’t given up more than 17 points in any game all year, yet they find themselves with two losses already. ASU can score, but their defense is downright horrible, and Stanford should have no problems running up and down the field. The only reason I give ASU the slightest chance in this one is because of Stanford’s tendency to play ranked teams extremely close. But in the end, I like Stanford in a blowout – 41 to 24.
Week 8 Game of the Week:
Notre Dame @ Florida State – Notre Dame is a true road team for the first time all year, and they’re a ~12 point underdog to the Seminoles. But, that’s down from a 24-point dog at the beginning of the year, so Vegas is liking the Irish a bit more (and/or doubting FSU a bit more). Both teams are dealing with off-the-field drama, and while Notre Dame has exceeded expectations this year, FSU has not, despite still being undefeated. As mentioned above, the key to this game will be Everett Golson. FSU will score a bunch, but if Golson turns it over repeatedly and keeps giving FSU a short field to work with, it will get ugly early. The other big key is how Notre Dame handles their first true road game of the year and the raucous crowd in Tallahassee. That can lead to mental mistakes, penalties, wasted timeouts, and turnovers. This isn’t your ’93 Irish, but this version of FSU is fairly similar to ’93 – very athletic and mobile QB, and incredible athletes all over the field. This one’s shaping up to be a repeat of the Notre Dame/Alabama game – Notre Dame has just enough tangibles (Golson, Robinson, and their defense) to make you think they can actually keep themselves in the game, but at the end it’ll be clear that what I’ve been saying all year is true: Notre Dame is not a Top-10 team. Florida State 31 Note Dame 24
Until next time…
1) Thanks to Washington, the “ice the kicker” timeouts are back in style. I see those work maybe once every three or four years. Well in Tucson this weekend (after ya’ll went to bed), Washington iced the kicker twice, at the end of the first half and the end of the game. The result? Both kicks were good, timeouts were called split seconds before the kicks, and the both second kicks missed or were blocked. The last one cost UofSuck the game. The most interesting part of that game was that despite their undefeated record and Top-10 ranking, UofSuck was a home underdog to an unranked USC team. A two point underdog. Final score: 28-26, USC. Man, those guys in Vegas are good.
2) UCLA falls to Oregon at home, giving the Ducks the clear path once again to the PAC-12 Championship. But, it’s becoming abundantly clear that home field “advantage” is not an advantage in the PAC-12 this year. In conference play, home teams are only 4-14 at home. That’s great when you’re Oregon going to Pasadena, but it doesn’t look so great when Stanford’s coming Eugene in three weeks, not to mention Washington this week.
3) It took Gurley getting suspended to wake up Georgia’s defense, and the Bulldogs went into Missouri and blew out the Tigers (being home isn’t so nice in the SEC either, right Texas A&M). Georgia had the ball for almost ¾ of the game, and Missouri was o’fer on third down and turned it over five times and never stood a chance. That Georgia loss @ South Carolina seems so long ago, and Georgia’s not only right back into things in the SEC East but right back into the Top-10.
4) The Fighting Irish gave up 43 points to an average (at best) North Carolina team, but still won. That’s the most points they’ve ever given up in a game and still won. You know what else is giving it up? Everett Golson. Nine turnovers in the last three games for the Irish QB, and they’re 3-0. That’s fine against the likes of Syracuse and North Carolina (and even “we always play good teams to a margin of victory of seven or less” Stanford), but that isn’t going to work this weekend at Notre Dame heads to Florida State for their first true road game of the year. A FSU team that is falling in the major polls faster than Obama’s approval rating, despite continuing to win.
5) Even when Baylor found themselves down to a really good TCU team by 21 points with just over 11 minutes to play, you still had that feeling that if anyone was going to pull off the victory, it would be Bryce Petty and company. No lead is safe against Baylor’s offense, but they have to get that defense figured out. Especially heading to dangerous Morgantown this weekend (upset alert?)
6) Alabama hasn’t looked great all season, and as the critics get a bit louder, Saban is getting a bit more irritated. They did hang on against a good Arkansas team though, even if it was the refs that helped them out a bit at the end. Still, at this point in the year, a win is a win. And, scheduling is lining up in their favor, with home games against A&M, LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn. If home field means anything anymore. Keep in mind, since joining the SEC, A&M is winless at home against ranked teams, but has won more than half of those games on the road.
7) Despite Texas sucking this year, and Oklahoma being pretty good, we finally had a close Red River shootout. Oklahoma’s been a beneficiary of good scheduling too, as the Sooners are now 32-0 following a regular season loss since 2000. Oklahoma needs to take care of K State this weekend, and then not fall on the road to Iowa State (TRAP GAME) before Baylor comes to town for the defacto Big 12 Championship on November 8th.
8) Don’t tell Oklahoma State I said that. Since barely losing to FSU in week one, the Cowboys have rattled off five straight and are back in the Top-15. They gotta head to TCU this weekend though, and I don’t think the Horned Frogs are going to give up 21 point 4th quarter leads again. And, the Cowboys close with games against Baylor and Oklahoma, so they could still make some noise in the Big 12, or at least play spoiler.
9) In the only big game result I missed last weekend (5-1 ain’t bad, 18-9 overall), Mississippi went into College Station and dominated the #3 scoring offense in the nation. In some ways, this was more impressive than last week’s huge win against Alabama. Yet, despite starting 6-0 for the first time in more than 50 years, Ole Miss is still playing red-headed step child to their neighbors from Starkville.
10) I’ve been saying all year that we’ve got a bunch of good to great teams this year, but not one or two dominate teams. I’ve been wrong. Mississippi State has rattled off three straight victories against Top-10 foes, and find themselves coasting into a bye week as the #1 team in the major polls (but not my poll; sorry, FSU’s path to undefeatedhood is still much easier that Miss St’s). Dak Prescott is the Heisman winner unless something completely crazy happens, and their schedule lightens up a bit with the bye and four of their next five against Kentucky, Arkansas, UT Martin, and Vanderbilt. Assuming they get by Kentucky, November 15th @ Alabama will be a huge game, but don’t forget that’s the week after ‘Bama goes to LSU. Things are good for the state of Mississippi!
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (6-0) – Despite how bad you’ve looked at times, I just can’t move you down when you keep winning.
#2. Mississippi State (6-0) – For the purposes of the playoff, #2 is just as good as #1, so don’t worry, Dak.
#3. Baylor (6-0) – You thought Notre Dame giving up 43 and winning was impressive? The Bears gave up 25 more than that and still won!
#4. Ole Miss (6-0) – A loss is looming, I know it.
#5. Auburn (5-1) – Best one loss team in the country right now.
#6. Alabama (5-1) – Need to get some things cleaned up to stay in the picture.
#7. Notre Dame (6-0) – I still don’t think you’re a Top-10 team (maybe if I keep saying this, it’ll work!). Flashback to ’93 coming up this weekend!
#8. Oregon (5-1) – It sure helps when your o-line actually blocks every once in a while.
#9. Michigan State (5-1) – Still can’t have you above Oregon when you lost to them.
#10. (Georgia (5-1) – Remember us?
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – But, Bryce Perry can close the gap a bit with another big performance against Oklahoma State.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Auburn
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Baylor
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Who would’ve thought seven weeks ago that the best shot for the SEC to regain the Championship was via one of the Mississippi schools?
Week 8 Big Games:
Kansas State @ Oklahoma – Kansas State’s only blemish is against Auburn, a game they really should’ve won. Oklahoma went down to TCU a couple weeks ago, but overall has been less then stellar in Big 12 play, struggling against the likes of Texas and West Virginia. I think Oklahoma is still benefitting from their win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl – i.e. they’re overrated. I like Kansas State and their stellar defense to pull the upset in Norman: 27 to 20.
Texas A&M @ Alabama – The last two versions of this game have been downright classics – Johnny Football storming off to a three TD lead in Tuscaloosa two years ago and then holding on to win, and last year’s slug fest revenge win for ‘Bama. Not as much hype leading up to this one, as Texas A&M still hasn’t figured out how to play defense, and Alabama is being forgotten about as all of the hype is on the Mississippi schools. Look for Kiffin and Saban and pull off the gloves in this one, and Alabama wins with some style points: 45 to 27.
Oklahoma State @ TCU – TCU is an epic collapse away from being in the Top-5, and most people forget that Oklahoma State took FSU down to the wire in week 1. Safe to say, if TCU scores 58 this weekend, they’re not losing; and they might score that many as they’re the #3 scoring team in the country, along with that usually (except for last weekend) stingy defense. Look for TCU to fix some things in the secondary, put up a bunch more points, and keep their Big 12 title hopes alive. TCU 45 Oklahoma State 33.
Stanford @ Arizona State – Stanford brings the #1 scoring defense into Tempe this weekend, to take on the Sun Devils, whom they’ve owned recently (beating ASU handily both times they played last year). Stanford hasn’t given up more than 17 points in any game all year, yet they find themselves with two losses already. ASU can score, but their defense is downright horrible, and Stanford should have no problems running up and down the field. The only reason I give ASU the slightest chance in this one is because of Stanford’s tendency to play ranked teams extremely close. But in the end, I like Stanford in a blowout – 41 to 24.
Week 8 Game of the Week:
Notre Dame @ Florida State – Notre Dame is a true road team for the first time all year, and they’re a ~12 point underdog to the Seminoles. But, that’s down from a 24-point dog at the beginning of the year, so Vegas is liking the Irish a bit more (and/or doubting FSU a bit more). Both teams are dealing with off-the-field drama, and while Notre Dame has exceeded expectations this year, FSU has not, despite still being undefeated. As mentioned above, the key to this game will be Everett Golson. FSU will score a bunch, but if Golson turns it over repeatedly and keeps giving FSU a short field to work with, it will get ugly early. The other big key is how Notre Dame handles their first true road game of the year and the raucous crowd in Tallahassee. That can lead to mental mistakes, penalties, wasted timeouts, and turnovers. This isn’t your ’93 Irish, but this version of FSU is fairly similar to ’93 – very athletic and mobile QB, and incredible athletes all over the field. This one’s shaping up to be a repeat of the Notre Dame/Alabama game – Notre Dame has just enough tangibles (Golson, Robinson, and their defense) to make you think they can actually keep themselves in the game, but at the end it’ll be clear that what I’ve been saying all year is true: Notre Dame is not a Top-10 team. Florida State 31 Note Dame 24
Until next time…
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
Week 6 Recap and Week 7 Preview
For the first time ever, five of the Top-8 teams in the AP poll lost on the same weekend. With the way the schedules were lining up, and the failure for any one team to distance themselves from the pack, it wasn’t a matter of if this was going to happen, but when. It also highlights a big problem in college football – preseason polling. Preseason college football polls lately are becoming more and more like Doc Brown’s crazy mind-reader machine. Had you told Dr. Brown back in mid-September what was going to happen in week 6, he would’ve said: “Do you know what this means……it means that this DAMN thing doesn’t work!” Well, that’s becoming more and more true about preseason, and even early season polls, in college football. No need to even begin releasing things until conference play begins. However, despite the massive amount of upsets this weekend (and certainly more to come), the most interesting thing is that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Meaning, the overall playoff picture hasn’t significantly changed much, even though we have few teams new to the top of the polls. More on that, as we get into the Top 10 recap:
1) Despite UCLA’s luck running out finally, and Oregon losing to UofSuck (again), not much has changed in the PAC-12 race. No, UofSuck isn’t a Top-10 team and will quickly lose two or three (or more in the PAC-12). Remember, UofSuck barely beat UTSA and Nevada, and needed a Hail Mary to beat Cal at home. And, despite USC losing on a Hail Mary to ASU (what a bizarre play that was!) and Stanford falling to Notre Dame (in yet another Stanford game decided by seven or less), the PAC-12 race is right where it started out to be: between Oregon and UCLA. And, with the SEC really looking like it’s going to beat each other up now (no offense, Mississippi schools, but I just don’t see the Egg Bowl as the game deciding the SEC West), it still looks like the PAC-12 Champion has a good shot to get to the Final Four. And, we get a preview at that likely PAC-12 Championship this weekend at Oregon heads down to Palo Alto with both teams looking to get back on track.
2) In the Big 12, I called the TCU upset over Oklahoma. Despite being ranked #1 in some of the power polls, Oklahoma wasn’t impressing me, and in some ways were only in that position because of their win over an unmotivated Alabama team in the Sugar Bowl last year. And, Big Game Bob hasn’t been so for about 15 years. But, even with OU going down, the Big 12 Championship (and probably Final Four spot) is probably still going to come down to the Baylor-OU game. Especially because TCU goes down to Baylor this weekend.
3) The most surprising result of the week (including the upsets) was Auburn manhandling LSU and dominating every aspect of that game and handing Les Miles his worst loss as LSU’s coach. LSU had beaten Auburn three straight (including Auburn’s only regular season loss last year), but not only is Auburn’s offense back to firing on all cylinders, but their defense is playing better and better every week. But, it doesn’t get any easier for Auburn now, starting @ Mississippi State this weekend.
4) While most people’s take away from the Alabama/Ole Miss game was the Alabama is/was undefeated, I see things differently (especially if you actually watched the game). Alabama owned that game on both sides of the ball until that key turnover in the 4th quarter on the kick off following the Ole Miss score. And even then, thanks to the blocked extra point on the ensuing touchdown, they were in a position to win the game. Make no mistake, Alabama isn’t the juggernaut this year that they have been in previous years, but even when Alabama makes huge 4th quarter mistakes and misses FG’s, they’re still in position to win games. I still think they have a good chance to come out of the SEC-West, especially because of their experience. Mississippi State and Ole Miss aren’t used to what is going to be mounting pressure each and every week.
5) With Michigan State’s big come-from-ahead win against Nebraska, we’re seeing something interesting happening in the Big 10. While the SEC and PAC-12 start to beat each other up, the Big 10 is extremely happy to be in conference play. Michigan State and Ohio State are starting to run away with the conference, and the early losses by both teams are becoming distant memories. They always say in college football that it’s better to lose early than late (witness Michigan State ahead of Oregon in the polls), and as the prize fighters in the SEC keep knocking each off, it’s starting to look like the Big 10 Champion may sneak into the Top-4.
6) I still insist Notre Dame isn’t a Top-10 team. Sure, that’s a nice win against Stanford this weekend, but they lose that game if Stanford doesn’t make one missed assignment on that key 4th and 11 with a minute to go in the game that allowed Notre Dame to score the winning TD. Big mistakes and turnovers for both teams, but penalties and that missed assignment did Stanford in. But, Notre Dame still has @ Florida State, @ Arizona State, and @ USC (not mention @ pesky Navy). With one loss, Notre Dame will be out of the playoff picture.
7) Speaking of Arizona State and USC, I’ve seen lots of Hail Mary’s over the years, but I’ve never seen one like that, especially because ASU in essence had two Hail Mary’s – scoring on a 73-yard TD reception just a couple minutes earlier. After stopping USC to get the ball back, ASU only needed ~20 yards to get into FG range but opted to go for the Hail Mary. The result was an underthrown pop fly pass caught by an ASU guy in dead sprint as three of four USC players sat there like they were about to fair catch a punt. Arizona State still alive in the PAC-12 South.
8) That ASU Hail Mary was bizarre, but not as bizarre as the trick play TCU pulled off against Oklahoma. After tying the game, OU kicked off to the Horned Frogs. One of TCU’s players (dressed in their dark uniforms) had laid down in the dark painted end zone and was camouflaged. After the receiver caught the kick and started up field, the guy got up and caught a lateral, nearly getting to midfield in the process. But alas, the play was wiped out by a holding penalty. If you didn’t see the play, look it up; it’s pretty good.
9) I’m sold on Mississippi State (which of course means they’ll lose this weekend). Dak Prescott is playing like a Heisman, the defense is solid, the offense controls the ball/clock, and they’ve responded to challenges thusfar in SEC-West play. If they can somehow get by Auburn this week, they’ve a let up in schedule until they head to Tuscaloosa on November 15th.
10) While I wasn’t much of a fan of the BCS, and I think the four team playoff is a step in the right direction, I still get sick of the “every week is a playoff” mantra you hear so often. If that was the case, all five of these Top-8 teams that lost this weekend would be out of contention with so much football left to play. Thankfully they’re not; as I don’t think a week 6 loss should eliminate anyone from contention in a playoff. Call it a double elimination pre-playoff to the playoff, as all five teams that lost this weekend have no more room for error. Especially with six more huge games slated for week 7.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (5-0) – Still #1, but still vulnerable.
#2. Auburn (5-0) – It’s like the end of 2013 all over again!
#3. Baylor (5-0) – Your schedule makes it more likely that you’ll remain unbeaten. That’s important for the committee. Why, I don’t know. But it is.
#4. Mississippi State (5-0) – Two huge wins in a row and now all of the sudden you’re in contention. You’re also a home underdog this weekend to Auburn.
#5. Ole Miss (5-0) – Huge, emotional win v. Alabama; immediately followed by a trip to a pissed off A&M team. Yeah, have fun with that.
#6. Alabama (4-1) – Remember that two of three Alabama’s recent National Championships included a loss to a quality team from the SEC West. If ‘Bama doesn’t turn it over twice in the second half and makes some field goals, they win that game easily and are #2. Things aren’t over for the Tide.
#7. Notre Dame (5-0) – I still don’t think you’re a Top-10 team, but if everyone else keeps losing, and you keep winning, what am I supposed to do?
#8. Oregon (4-1) – As long as you have the same number of losses as Michigan State, I’ll have you ranked ahead of them. But, you need to take care of UCLA this weekend.
#9. Michigan State (4-1) – Congrats on winning the Big 10!
#10.TCU (4-0) – Welcome to the Top-10! Enjoy it while it lasts, because I have a feeling you won’t be here long!
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Coolest named QB we’ve seen in a while, best QB in the country right now on the hottest team in the country right now in best conference overall (and best division by far). But, the spotlight won’t be easy, especially with your upcoming schedule
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Mississippi State
#2 Auburn v. #3 Baylor
Championship: Mississippi State v. Auburn – Wouldn’t it be interesting if the first four team playoff in college football history gave a rematch of a regular season SEC game? With the teams that are left in the hunt, it’s entirely possible…
Week 7 Big Games:
Georgia @ Missouri – Missouri beat South Carolina and Georgia did not, so that gives an automatic nod to Missouri in this one, especially since they’re at home, right? In the words of Lee Corse – not so fast! Missouri is going to see a steady dose of Gurley all day long, and Georgia is overall the better team (as in, they didn’t lose to Indiana). Georgia regains control in the SEC-East: 38 to 27.
TCU @ Baylor – Oh how things change in the Big 12. The second weekend in October, and the featured game in Texas between Top-10 teams isn’t the Red River Shootout, but TCU/Baylor. Patterson’s boys better be ready to play early. We see it so many times. A team with an emotional win the weekend before struggles in their next game. Especially on the road. Especially with a quality opponent. All three of those are in play this weekend. Baylor scores early and often and blows TCU back to the middle of the Big 12: Baylor 52 TCU 38.
Oregon @ UCLA – This was supposed to be a Top-10 matchup and preview of the PAC-12 Championship, but with both teams stumbling against lesser foes this past weekend, we’re left with just two teams wanting to get back into things. UCLA hasn’t looked great all year (except against Arizona State) and Oregon’s offensive line looks like a series of human turn-styles. But, again, outside of the game against ASU (and who doesn’t look good against ASU’s defense?), UCLA hasn’t looked great against Virginia, Memphis, Texas, and Utah. Oregon heads into Pasadena and gets a win in the Rose Bowl: 43 to 30.
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M – Ole Miss’ stock is at an all-time high following their upset of Alabama, and A&M’s is at a yearly low after its loss at Mississippi State. But, I’ll say it again – huge emotional win followed by a tough game on the road, and that spells trouble for Ole Miss (especially with their safety being suspended for the first half for that cheap shot against Alabama that ended up breaking the leg of their running back). I’ll sell high and buy low, and take A&M: Texas A&M 45 Ole Miss 27.
USC @ UofSuck – UofSuck is the last undefeated team in the PAC-12, and they’re back at home against a two-loss USC team. And they’re a three point underdog. When Vegas knows, they know. Remember, this UofSuck team barely beat UTSA and Nevada, and needed a Hail Mary and 36 point 4th quarter to beat lowly Cal. And they caught Oregon at the right time on a Thursday night (where favorites go to die) with a beat up offensive line. USC 27 UofSuck 20.
Week 7 Game of the Week:
Auburn @ Mississippi State – Dak and Co. are back at home, and it’s just another game against a Top-10 opponent, as Mississippi State tries to keep their magical run alive. The problem is, Auburn is the team coming to town – not only the #2 in the current polls, but the #2 team from last year as well. And, their defense is much better than last year but most importantly, they aren’t as one dimension on offense this year, and Nick Marshall has Auburn rolling. Look for a shootout in this one, as both teams know they’re best defense will be a good offense as the other is going to score as well. My gut says War Eagle, but my heart says Dak Prescott: Mississippi State 41 Auburn 38.
Until next time…
1) Despite UCLA’s luck running out finally, and Oregon losing to UofSuck (again), not much has changed in the PAC-12 race. No, UofSuck isn’t a Top-10 team and will quickly lose two or three (or more in the PAC-12). Remember, UofSuck barely beat UTSA and Nevada, and needed a Hail Mary to beat Cal at home. And, despite USC losing on a Hail Mary to ASU (what a bizarre play that was!) and Stanford falling to Notre Dame (in yet another Stanford game decided by seven or less), the PAC-12 race is right where it started out to be: between Oregon and UCLA. And, with the SEC really looking like it’s going to beat each other up now (no offense, Mississippi schools, but I just don’t see the Egg Bowl as the game deciding the SEC West), it still looks like the PAC-12 Champion has a good shot to get to the Final Four. And, we get a preview at that likely PAC-12 Championship this weekend at Oregon heads down to Palo Alto with both teams looking to get back on track.
2) In the Big 12, I called the TCU upset over Oklahoma. Despite being ranked #1 in some of the power polls, Oklahoma wasn’t impressing me, and in some ways were only in that position because of their win over an unmotivated Alabama team in the Sugar Bowl last year. And, Big Game Bob hasn’t been so for about 15 years. But, even with OU going down, the Big 12 Championship (and probably Final Four spot) is probably still going to come down to the Baylor-OU game. Especially because TCU goes down to Baylor this weekend.
3) The most surprising result of the week (including the upsets) was Auburn manhandling LSU and dominating every aspect of that game and handing Les Miles his worst loss as LSU’s coach. LSU had beaten Auburn three straight (including Auburn’s only regular season loss last year), but not only is Auburn’s offense back to firing on all cylinders, but their defense is playing better and better every week. But, it doesn’t get any easier for Auburn now, starting @ Mississippi State this weekend.
4) While most people’s take away from the Alabama/Ole Miss game was the Alabama is/was undefeated, I see things differently (especially if you actually watched the game). Alabama owned that game on both sides of the ball until that key turnover in the 4th quarter on the kick off following the Ole Miss score. And even then, thanks to the blocked extra point on the ensuing touchdown, they were in a position to win the game. Make no mistake, Alabama isn’t the juggernaut this year that they have been in previous years, but even when Alabama makes huge 4th quarter mistakes and misses FG’s, they’re still in position to win games. I still think they have a good chance to come out of the SEC-West, especially because of their experience. Mississippi State and Ole Miss aren’t used to what is going to be mounting pressure each and every week.
5) With Michigan State’s big come-from-ahead win against Nebraska, we’re seeing something interesting happening in the Big 10. While the SEC and PAC-12 start to beat each other up, the Big 10 is extremely happy to be in conference play. Michigan State and Ohio State are starting to run away with the conference, and the early losses by both teams are becoming distant memories. They always say in college football that it’s better to lose early than late (witness Michigan State ahead of Oregon in the polls), and as the prize fighters in the SEC keep knocking each off, it’s starting to look like the Big 10 Champion may sneak into the Top-4.
6) I still insist Notre Dame isn’t a Top-10 team. Sure, that’s a nice win against Stanford this weekend, but they lose that game if Stanford doesn’t make one missed assignment on that key 4th and 11 with a minute to go in the game that allowed Notre Dame to score the winning TD. Big mistakes and turnovers for both teams, but penalties and that missed assignment did Stanford in. But, Notre Dame still has @ Florida State, @ Arizona State, and @ USC (not mention @ pesky Navy). With one loss, Notre Dame will be out of the playoff picture.
7) Speaking of Arizona State and USC, I’ve seen lots of Hail Mary’s over the years, but I’ve never seen one like that, especially because ASU in essence had two Hail Mary’s – scoring on a 73-yard TD reception just a couple minutes earlier. After stopping USC to get the ball back, ASU only needed ~20 yards to get into FG range but opted to go for the Hail Mary. The result was an underthrown pop fly pass caught by an ASU guy in dead sprint as three of four USC players sat there like they were about to fair catch a punt. Arizona State still alive in the PAC-12 South.
8) That ASU Hail Mary was bizarre, but not as bizarre as the trick play TCU pulled off against Oklahoma. After tying the game, OU kicked off to the Horned Frogs. One of TCU’s players (dressed in their dark uniforms) had laid down in the dark painted end zone and was camouflaged. After the receiver caught the kick and started up field, the guy got up and caught a lateral, nearly getting to midfield in the process. But alas, the play was wiped out by a holding penalty. If you didn’t see the play, look it up; it’s pretty good.
9) I’m sold on Mississippi State (which of course means they’ll lose this weekend). Dak Prescott is playing like a Heisman, the defense is solid, the offense controls the ball/clock, and they’ve responded to challenges thusfar in SEC-West play. If they can somehow get by Auburn this week, they’ve a let up in schedule until they head to Tuscaloosa on November 15th.
10) While I wasn’t much of a fan of the BCS, and I think the four team playoff is a step in the right direction, I still get sick of the “every week is a playoff” mantra you hear so often. If that was the case, all five of these Top-8 teams that lost this weekend would be out of contention with so much football left to play. Thankfully they’re not; as I don’t think a week 6 loss should eliminate anyone from contention in a playoff. Call it a double elimination pre-playoff to the playoff, as all five teams that lost this weekend have no more room for error. Especially with six more huge games slated for week 7.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (5-0) – Still #1, but still vulnerable.
#2. Auburn (5-0) – It’s like the end of 2013 all over again!
#3. Baylor (5-0) – Your schedule makes it more likely that you’ll remain unbeaten. That’s important for the committee. Why, I don’t know. But it is.
#4. Mississippi State (5-0) – Two huge wins in a row and now all of the sudden you’re in contention. You’re also a home underdog this weekend to Auburn.
#5. Ole Miss (5-0) – Huge, emotional win v. Alabama; immediately followed by a trip to a pissed off A&M team. Yeah, have fun with that.
#6. Alabama (4-1) – Remember that two of three Alabama’s recent National Championships included a loss to a quality team from the SEC West. If ‘Bama doesn’t turn it over twice in the second half and makes some field goals, they win that game easily and are #2. Things aren’t over for the Tide.
#7. Notre Dame (5-0) – I still don’t think you’re a Top-10 team, but if everyone else keeps losing, and you keep winning, what am I supposed to do?
#8. Oregon (4-1) – As long as you have the same number of losses as Michigan State, I’ll have you ranked ahead of them. But, you need to take care of UCLA this weekend.
#9. Michigan State (4-1) – Congrats on winning the Big 10!
#10.TCU (4-0) – Welcome to the Top-10! Enjoy it while it lasts, because I have a feeling you won’t be here long!
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Coolest named QB we’ve seen in a while, best QB in the country right now on the hottest team in the country right now in best conference overall (and best division by far). But, the spotlight won’t be easy, especially with your upcoming schedule
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Mississippi State
#2 Auburn v. #3 Baylor
Championship: Mississippi State v. Auburn – Wouldn’t it be interesting if the first four team playoff in college football history gave a rematch of a regular season SEC game? With the teams that are left in the hunt, it’s entirely possible…
Week 7 Big Games:
Georgia @ Missouri – Missouri beat South Carolina and Georgia did not, so that gives an automatic nod to Missouri in this one, especially since they’re at home, right? In the words of Lee Corse – not so fast! Missouri is going to see a steady dose of Gurley all day long, and Georgia is overall the better team (as in, they didn’t lose to Indiana). Georgia regains control in the SEC-East: 38 to 27.
TCU @ Baylor – Oh how things change in the Big 12. The second weekend in October, and the featured game in Texas between Top-10 teams isn’t the Red River Shootout, but TCU/Baylor. Patterson’s boys better be ready to play early. We see it so many times. A team with an emotional win the weekend before struggles in their next game. Especially on the road. Especially with a quality opponent. All three of those are in play this weekend. Baylor scores early and often and blows TCU back to the middle of the Big 12: Baylor 52 TCU 38.
Oregon @ UCLA – This was supposed to be a Top-10 matchup and preview of the PAC-12 Championship, but with both teams stumbling against lesser foes this past weekend, we’re left with just two teams wanting to get back into things. UCLA hasn’t looked great all year (except against Arizona State) and Oregon’s offensive line looks like a series of human turn-styles. But, again, outside of the game against ASU (and who doesn’t look good against ASU’s defense?), UCLA hasn’t looked great against Virginia, Memphis, Texas, and Utah. Oregon heads into Pasadena and gets a win in the Rose Bowl: 43 to 30.
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M – Ole Miss’ stock is at an all-time high following their upset of Alabama, and A&M’s is at a yearly low after its loss at Mississippi State. But, I’ll say it again – huge emotional win followed by a tough game on the road, and that spells trouble for Ole Miss (especially with their safety being suspended for the first half for that cheap shot against Alabama that ended up breaking the leg of their running back). I’ll sell high and buy low, and take A&M: Texas A&M 45 Ole Miss 27.
USC @ UofSuck – UofSuck is the last undefeated team in the PAC-12, and they’re back at home against a two-loss USC team. And they’re a three point underdog. When Vegas knows, they know. Remember, this UofSuck team barely beat UTSA and Nevada, and needed a Hail Mary and 36 point 4th quarter to beat lowly Cal. And they caught Oregon at the right time on a Thursday night (where favorites go to die) with a beat up offensive line. USC 27 UofSuck 20.
Week 7 Game of the Week:
Auburn @ Mississippi State – Dak and Co. are back at home, and it’s just another game against a Top-10 opponent, as Mississippi State tries to keep their magical run alive. The problem is, Auburn is the team coming to town – not only the #2 in the current polls, but the #2 team from last year as well. And, their defense is much better than last year but most importantly, they aren’t as one dimension on offense this year, and Nick Marshall has Auburn rolling. Look for a shootout in this one, as both teams know they’re best defense will be a good offense as the other is going to score as well. My gut says War Eagle, but my heart says Dak Prescott: Mississippi State 41 Auburn 38.
Until next time…
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