Bowl Preview Edition - Part II

And here’s part duex of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview Edition! Enjoy!

Ticket City Bowl – Jan. 2, 2:00pm ESPNU

Houston v. Penn State.

The first New Year’s game of the year, and each team is reeling. Penn State was passed over by three other bowls because of the scandals, and Houston was one win from a BCS game; not to mention each team is playing with an interim coach. Houston led the country in both scoring and passing yards, but didn’t play anywhere near a defense like they’ll see in this one. As it has been all year: can Penn State score enough to win? Houston is averaging 30 more a game than Penn State. That should be enough to get the Cougars a victory.

Gambling angle: This is the 2^nd Ticket City Bowl, with the underdog covering last year, and the over hitting. Despite Houston averaging 50/game, the over/under is only at 57, a testament to Penn State’s defense. Penn State is just too distracted, so let’s take Houston -5.5 and the over 57.

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl – Jan. 2, 1:00pm ESPN2

Florida v. Ohio State

Hey, I have a clever name for this bowl: the Urban Meyer bowl! What? That’s already been used? Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve heard about this game as the matchup of Meyer’s former and future teams. On paper, these teams are very similar: both struggled down the stretch after good starts, and each averaged 25/game and gave up 21/game. Ohio State is dealing with new NCAA sanctions, and Florida is playing in their own backyard. That should be enough to give the Gators a victory by a FG.

Gambling angle: As usual, the trend is for underdogs to cover here, and I like Florida +2, and the over 44 as both teams will pull out all of the tricks.

Outback Bowl – Jan. 2, 1:00pm ABC

Georgia v. Michigan State

This year’s Outback Bowl matches two 10-3 teams who also lost their respective conference championship games. Michigan State hasn’t won a bowl game in 10 years, and Georgia’s 10-game winning streak was snapped by LSU in the SEC Championship. There is some history here, as Georgia beat Michigan State in the 2009 Capital One bowl. As with many bowl games, this matches Gerogia’s offense (3^rd in the SEC) versus Michigan State’s defense (5^th in the country). But, let’s not forget that Georgia is also a top-5 defense. Look for a close, exciting, but scoring game, in what could’ve been two BCS teams. I like Georgia, down to the wire, to win in a close one. 

Gambling angle: The Big-10 has covered six of the last nine Outback bowls, and three of the last five have played under. Let’s try and keep that going: Michigan State +3.5 and the under 50.5Even though I like Florida to win; I think Penn State covers the -6. And I look for the under 48 here also.

Capital One Bowl – Jan. 2, 1:00pm ESPN

South Carolina v. Nebraska

This match-up is simple. If South Carolina stops Burkhead and forces Martinez to pass, they win. And, they should have no problem doing that, as the 4^th best defense in the country (even while playing in the brutal SEC). Nebraska’s only chance is if the Blackshirts show up, but there’s no Suh or Crick this time. South Carolina wins big.

Gambling angle: While underdogs here are 4-2-1 against the spread in the last seven here, I have to take South Carolina -2. Four of the last six have played under, and that seems appropriate with these defenses, so I like the under 47.

Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO – Jan. 2, 5:00pm ESPN

Oregon v. Wisconsin

Two of the most prolific offenses in the country meet up in Pasadena. Wisconsin was outplayed by TCU last year here, and Oregon hasn’t won a Rose Bowl since 1917. Each team scores ~45+/game, and each has a deceptively steady defense that compliments their offense. LaMichael James led the country in rushing yards per game for the Ducks, and Monte Ball of Wisconsin has a chance to tie or break Barry Sanders’ single season TD record. Wisconsin couldn’t match TCU in the trenches last year, and they won’t be able to match Oregon’s speed this year. Oregon finally gets a BCS bowl win!

Gambling angle: Favorites tend to do well in Pasadena, and I like Oregon at -6 in a shootout. The over is a ridiculous 72, and as much as I want to take the over, I can’t. I’ll take the under as I remember what both Wisconsin and Oregon did last year in bowl games (each scored 19 in loses to TCU and Auburn).

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl – Glendale, AZ Jan. 2, 8:30pm ESPN

Oklahoma State v. Stanford

While the Rose Bowl features the 3^rd and 4^th scoring offenses in the country, the Fiesta Bowl features the 2^nd and 6^th scoring offenses, so look for lots of points. If you’ve followed ‘The Wind’ all year, you know how much I like these two teams this year. I’m really looking forward to watching this game. Stanford’s only blemishes the last two years have been against Oregon, and Oklahoma State silenced the critics by destroying the Sooners to end the season. As much as I’ve liked Stanford, I’m also a realist. They haven’t beaten anyone other than USC this year, and that was at home, and in triple O.T. Stanford and Andrew Luck run a very effective and efficient pro-style offense, but it’s not conducive to hanging with a spread style offense like Oklahoma State runs. And, like I’ve been saying all year: this year’s Oklahoma State team is special!  

Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered three of the last four Fiesta Bowls and four of the last seven have played under the total. While I do like Oklahoma State to win, Stanford will keep it close, so let’s look to Stanford +3.5; and much like the Rose Bowl, while there will be lots of points scored, I can’t see the over 74 hitting, so look to the under.

Allstate Sugar Bowl – Jan. 3, 8:30pm ESPN

Virginia Tech v. Michigan

A BCS Game with the #13 and #17 teams in the country? Okay then. As I’ve said before, we don’t know how good Va. Tech is because they haven’t played anyone (other than getting smashed by Clemson twice). And, while Michigan is much improved this year over last year (specifically on defense, going from 110^th last year to 18^th this year), their resume is about as non-impressive at Va. Tech’s (a win over Nebraska is about it). For once, I won’t be upset if I miss the Sugar Bowl.

Gambling angle: This game usually matches up an SEC team against someone, so no real trends to look at here. Va. Tech is -2, and I like that, with the over 51.

Discover Orange Bowl – Jan. 4, 8:30pm ESPN

Clemson v. West Virginia

If you thought the Sugar Bowl was bad, Clemson and West Virginia isn’t much better (#15 versus #23), though at least they both won their conferences. However, this should be a fairly entertaining game with solid offenses (each average ~35/game) and average defenses (each give up ~26/game).

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 6-2 against the spread and the under has hit seven out of nine, but I like the opposite here. Lots of offense and not much defense = Clemson -3.5 and over 60.5

AT&T Cotton Bowl – Jan. 6, 8:00pm FOX

Arkansas v. Kansas State

It’s fitting that the Cotton Bowl is played after the Orange and Sugar bowls this year, as it’s more of a BCS matchup than either of those games. #6 Arkansas comes in with its only loses to #1 and #2 Alabama, and surprise of the year #8 Kansas State reaches this game with their only loses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Either of these teams could’ve and should’ve made a BCS game. Will that affect their mental preparation at all? Doubtful. As usual, I’ve gotta take the SEC over the Big-12, and Arkansas gets their 11^th win.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 7-1 straight up over the Big-12 in this game. That will continue, and I like Arkansas -7.5; and while the under is 7-3 here, I gotta take the over 63 with these two offenses.

BBVA Compass Bowl – Jan. 7 1:00pm ESPN

Pittsburgh v. SMU

After 32 games we get Pittsburg v. SMU on January 7^th? SMU stumbles into this one losing four of its last six, and Pitt doesn’t have a coach (who is off to ASU – I’m still wondering if ASU realizes Pitt went 6-6 this year when they made a move to get him). Pitt wins again here, for the second straight year.

Gambling angle: In the bowl formerly known as the papajohns.com bowl, the Big East is 5-0. I’ll take Pitt -5 and the under 48.

GoDaddy.com Bowl – Jan. 8 9:00pm ESPN

Northern Illinois v. Arkansas State

So we’ve seen the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl, and Sugar Bowl – so it must be time for the National Championship, right? Nope. The bowl formally known as the GMAC bowl is played on January 8^th this year, and is one of three bowl games between the traditional big four and the championship. And, believe it or not, I’m actually okay with this. If we’re not going to have a playoff, but all means – let’s have games between Northern Illinois and Arkansas State. At least we get a match-up of conference champions in this one; albeit the MAC and the Sunbelt. And, while this may not be a BCS match-up, both teams are red hot, with NIU winning eight straight and Arkansas State winning nine in a row. NIU scores a ton, but they also give up more than 30/game. Arkansas State wins in a shootout, and quick – name the Arkansas State mascot. Thought so.

Gambling angle: Favorites are 8-0-1 against the spread in this game, so let’s look to Arkansas State -1.5 and the over 62.5

AllState BCS National Championship – Jan. 9, 8:30pm ESPN

LSU v. Alabama

Normally, I’m not a big fan of rematches in bowl games; and especially in National Championship games. But, let’s remember what happened November 5^th in Tuscaloosa. Alabama missed four field goals; neither defense made a mistake; neither coach took a chance on offense; and yet, Alabama battled the clear #1 team in the country to a 6-6 tie in regulation. Alabama’s defense gives up 190 yards/game and less than 9 points/game; far and away the best defense in the country. Rematches usually favor the loser of the first game, especially with two teams as evenly matched as this. Part of me wants LSU to win, as they’ve clearly been the most dominating team all year; but the same could be said about Alabama if they don’t miss four FGs at home. Like I said in the first match-up (even though I was wrong), you won’t be able to win this game by kicking FGs. I like Alabama to win 23-20.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 5-0 straight up and against the spread here, so of course that will move to 6-0 with two SEC teams playing! LSU is -1, and the O/U is 39.5. For selfish reasons which I may or may not explain later, I like Alabama +1 and the over 39.5 as both teams will open up their offenses a lot more compared to the November 5^th match-up. I wonder if the AP will still give LSU the AP Title with a loss? Hmmm, shall we start this debate already? Nah, save it for next year.  

Well, that’s it for 2011’s college football season! From all of the editors, statisticians, researchers, and other contributors at the Autumn Wind (oh wait – it’s just me): Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Until next time year….

Bowl Preview Edition - Part I

Here’s the 5^th annual edition of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview. I’ll break ‘em all down: 35 bowls, 70 teams, starting December 17^th and ending January 9^th, including some very intriguing match-ups in non-BCS bowls. This year will be known as the bowl season without any games on January 1^st! That’s right, because the 1^st falls on a Sunday this year, college football deferred its usual New Year’s Day games to the 2^nd.

Here’s the games, dates, times, TV coverage, and angles (for entertainment purposes only) up to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on December 31^st. I’ll post the update for the real bowl games next week. Enjoy the last few weeks of the 2011-2012 college football season!

Gildan New Mexico Bowl – Dec. 17, 2:00pm ESPN

Wyoming v. Temple

A match-up of 8-4 teams start off the 2011-2012 bowl season, but Temple has the advantage here. The Owls are 7^th in the nation in rushing, and 3^rd in the nation in scoring defense. Wyoming is no stranger to this bowl, having won a couple years ago as a 12.5 point underdog. But, the Cowboys rushing defense is 6^th worst in the nation. The Temple Owls win a bowl game!

Gambling angle: This is the 6^th New Mexico Bowl – and underdogs have not only covered, but won outright in three of the first five. In addition the over has hit in the last three. Despite the underdog’s strong play in this bowl, I think Temple covers the 6.5, and the over 48 should be no problem as Temple will score early and often, and Wyoming will wind up with some garbage points in the 4^th.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Dec. 17, 5:30pm ESPN

Utah State v. Ohio

This is the match-up of “someone must win” as these two teams are a combined 1-11 in bowl games. Both teams score a lot (31-35/game) but also give up a lot (22-28/game) so we’re looking at an entertaining offensive match-up in this one. Ohio falls to 0-6 all time in bowls, as the Aggies get the win, in a close one.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 3-2-1 against the spread the last six here, and three of the past four played to the over. Utah State opened at -2 and it’s up to -2.5. Let’s take Utah State -2.5 and the over 57.5.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Dec. 17, 9:00pm ESPN

Louisiana Lafayette v. San Diego State

In this match-up of 8-4 teams, you’ve got a San Diego State team whose only losses were to other bowl teams versus Louisiana Lafayette, a team that struggled on the road and it making their first ever bowl appearance. Not really much else to say about this one other that Louisiana Lafayette’s defense has been getting worse towards the end of the season, and both offenses score ~30+/game.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 4-2 in the past six and the past six have played over the total. The play here is San Diego State -5 with the over 58.5.

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl – Dec 20, 8pm ESPN

Marshall v. Florida International

Alright, now it’s bowl season: a 6-6 team from the MAC versus a 4^th place team from the Sun Belt Conference. If you don’t have anything better to do than watch this game, then go ahead and jump off of a cliff.

Gambling angle: This is the 4th Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, with the Big East victorious in the previous three (all as favorites). The problem is the Big East sucked this year and couldn’t send anyone for this bowl game. FIU is favored by four, and I like that, along with the over 48.5.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – Dec. 21, 8:00pm ESPN

TCU v. Louisiana Tech

TCU’s rattled off seven straight since their inexplicable loss to SMU, including winning @ Boise. And keep this in mind, except for a two point loss to Baylor to open the season and that O.T. loss to SMU (both very winnable games), TCU could be looking at 37-0 the last three regular season. The Horned Frogs aren’t the same as their previous teams, but they should have no problems against a Louisiana Tech team that won the WAC.

Gambling angle: The Mountain West has won the past five here. TCU opened at -12, but that’s crept down to -10.5. Gimme TCU -10.5 and the under 55.5 as TCU grinds out a big win.

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl – Dec. 22, 8:00pm ESPN

Boise State v. Arizona State

This is the worst match up of the bowl season. Boise was one FG away from playing in the National Championship, and ASU (the preseason favorite in the PAC-12 South) finished 6-6, losing four straight, and firing head coach Dennis Erickson. However, as we know, the games aren’t played on paper and often teams that wind up in disappointing bowl game won’t show up. But, that won’t be the case here. Remember, Boise got snubbed last year as well and went and put a whipping on Utah in this same bowl game. The only question is if ASU will show up at all; that, and put an already undisciplined team with a lame duck coach in Vegas and watch disaster unfold. Kellen Moore gets his 50^th win, a feat that may never be equaled.  

Gambling angle: Boise opened at -14, and I like that number; and with ten of the last 13 Vegas Bowl’s hitting the under, I like the under 66 as ASU will struggle to score against the underrated Broncos defense.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl – Dec. 24, 8:00pm ESPN

Southern Miss v. Nevada

As usual, tons of offense in the Hawaii Bowl, with both teams scoring over 32 a game, mostly through the ground attack. Southern Miss won 11 games, though Fedora is out as coach (moving on to North Carolina). Nevada’s pistol offense averages more than 500/game, and they’ll have no problem racing up and down the field.

Gambling angle: Underdogs have won, and covered, the past four here, and seven of the last nine have played over. Southern Miss is at -6. I love Nevada +6, with the over 63.

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – Dec. 26, 5:00pm ESPN2

North Carolina v. Missouri

Missouri won three straight to get here, and North Carolina finishd 2-4 down the stretch and will be on their 3^rd coach in two years next year. Nothing to see here folks…

Gambling angle: Favorites are 6-2 against the spread and the last three here played under. Missouri is -4.5 and like that number, as well as the under 52.5.

Little Caesars Bowl – Dec. 27, 4:30pm ESPN

Purdue v. Western Michigan

Purdue lost to Rice and only beat 1-11 Indiana by seven points in a must win to clinch a bowl berth finale. I don’t really care what Western Michigan has or has not done, they win this game.

Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered four straight and under total is 8-4 in last 12 Motor City…errrrr, Little Caesars Bowls. Purdue is -2.5, though I like Western Michigan to win outright, as Purdue just gives up too many points. Even though the under is the trend here, I do like the over 60.

Belk Bowl – Dec. 27, 8:00pm ESPN

North Carolina State v. Louisville

In what used to be the Meineke Car Care Bowl, Louisville can’t score and plays in the Big East. NC State upset Clemson and then came from a million back to beat Maryland in their final game. NC State wins, and wins big..

Gambling angle: Let’s take NC State -2.5 and the under 44.5.

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman – Dec. 28 4:30pm ESPN

Air Force v. Toledo

Grab the popcorn and get ready for some offense and not much defense. Toledo scores 42+/game, but gives up 31/game and Air Force scores 35/game but gives up 27/game.

Gambling angle: All three is this bowl’s history have played to the over; so I like the Toledo -3 and the over 70, as Air Force’s defense is too banged up to stop anyone.

Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl – Dec. 28, 8:00pm ESPN

Texas v. California

Both Texas and Cal had disappointing seasons. However, they each ended differently. Texas lost three out of their last four, and Cal won three out of their last four. Their sole loss in that stretch was by a FG at BCS-bound Stanford. But the wins were against Oregon State, Washington State, and ASU. Not exactly ’85 Bears material there. Texas’ losses were to Baylor, K State, and Missouri; all bowl teams.

Gambling angle: Interesting angle’s here: the PAC-10 doesn’t win (3-7 straight up), and favorites cover (10-3). Same story. I’ll take Texas -3 and the under 47.5.

Champs Sports Bowl – Dec. 29, 5:30pm ESPN

Notre Dame v. Florida State

The battle of “remember when were good?” schools. 1993 and the “Game of the Century” seem so long ago because, well, that was 18 years ago! Still, I’ll enjoy watching this game for old times sake, and the O/U on how many times Bowden and Holtz are named is 28.5.

Gambling angle: The ACC is only 1-7 straight up in this game, and the under is 5-1 the past six. I really like Notre Dame +3 and the under 47

Valero Alamo Bowl – Dec. 29, 9:00pm ESPN

Baylor v. Washington

The Big 12 has owned the PAC-12 in recent history in this game which bodes well for RGIII and Baylor. Rightfully so, Vegas has this game as the highest O/U this year. Baylor scores 43/game but gives up 36/game and Washington gives up more than it scores (33 and 31, respectively). Gonna be a ton of scoring in this one, and with it being played in RGIII’s backyard, I like Baylor.

Gambling angle: Even though five of eight played under, and underdogs are 6-4 against the spread; I’m going to buck both trends here and take Baylor -9 and the over 78.5.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl – Dec. 30, 12:00pm ESPN

Tulsa v. Brigham Young

BYU finished 9-3, but outside of Texas, didn’t play anyone. Tulsa didn’t really beat anyone, but their only losses were to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and Houston. Gonna be hard to watch the Armed Forces Bowl without an Armed Forces team playing.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 6-1 against the spread in this one, winning the last two outright. I like Tulsa +2.5. The over/under alternated the last 8 years; it’s this year’s turn for the over (which I like over 55.5).

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Dec. 30, 3:20pm ESPN

Iowa State v. Rutgers

Everyone knows Iowa State as the team that beat Oklahoma State. No one knows anything about Rutgers. Gotta go with Big-12 over Big East here, solely on principle.

Gambling angle: I’ll take Iowa State +1.5 and the over 44.5.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Dec. 30, 6:40pm ESPN

Wake Forest v. Mississippi State

I refuse to even acknowledge this game. Okay, the name of bowl is cool. That’s about it.

Gambling angle: I like Mississippi -7 (favorites are 5-1-1 the last seven Music City bowls) and since seven of ten have played under, I like the under 48.

Insight Bowl – Dec. 30, 10:00pm ESPN

Oklahoma v. Iowa

Iowa’s back at the Insight Bowl, and Oklahoma winds up here, even though they started the season at #1. Oklahoma has a lot to prove in this one, and again, I’ll pick the Big-12 over the Big 10 solely on principle

Gambling angle: The over is 8-1 in this last nine here, and the Big-12 had won four straight v. Big-10 before Iowa upset Missouri last year. Oklahoma wins, but not by the 14 they are favored by. I’ll take Iowa +14 and the over 58.

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas – Dec. 31, 12:00pm ESPN

Northwestern v. Texas A&M

The old Texas Bowl is now the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas. And once again, middle of the road Big-10 versus middle of the road Big-12 in this edition of the Texas Bowl. Which Northwestern team will show: the team that lost to Army or the team that beat Nebraska in Lincoln? Not that it will really matter. Sure, A&M is only 6-6, but they did beat Baylor, lost to Oklahoma State by one, Arkansas by four, Texas by two, and Missouri and Kansas State in O.T. Their only real bad loss was @ Oklahoma.

Gambling angle: I like Texas A&M -10, as favorites are 6-2-2 against the spread in this bowl; and I like the over 65 as well as three of the past four played over, and each defense is capable of giving up lots and lots of big plays.

Hyundai Sun Bowl – Dec. 31, 2:00pm CBS

Utah v. Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech’s rushing offense (3^rd in the nation) goes against Utah’s 20-point/game defense. This one will be an ugly game.

Gambling angle: I’ll take Georgia Tech -3.5 and the under 50.5.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl – Dec. 31 3:30pm ESPN

UCLA v. Illinois

If Kraft wasn’t trying to fight hunger with this bowl, I’d say why bother. Both teams are 6-6, Illinois has lost six straight, UCLA’s signature win was over San Jose State, and neither team has a coach.

Gambling angle: I guess I’ll take Illinois -2.5 and the over 47.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Dec 31, 3:30pm ABC

Vanderbilt v. Cincinnati

This is life in the SEC. The talk was how Vandy surprised everyone this year; enough so to give their coach an extension. Um, did anyone else notice they finished 2-6 in the SEC, including loses to Tennessee and Florida? And while Cincinnati won a share of the Big East title, keep in mind it’s the Big East; and they too lost to Tennessee, and their quality win was, what, Louisville? Ugh, the 3:30 time slot on New Years Eve is this game and the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl? I wonder if a Back to the Future marathon is on, cuz I won’t be watching either of these games.

Gambling angle: Vandy is a 2.5 point favorite, but I’m guessing that’s just an SEC v. Big East thing. The underdogs have covered six out of seven here, and the under has hit nine out of the last 12. So, if I had to put action on this game, I’d take Cincy +2.5 and the under 48.5

Chick-fil-A Bowl – Dec. 31, 7:30pm ESPN

Auburn v. Virginia

It’s still hard to believe that Virginia had a shot to go to the ACC Title game, then lost to Va. Tech at home 38-0. The defending BCS Champs Auburn surprised many folks with their early upsets over Mississippi State and South Carolina, but then they got destroyed later by Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, and Alabama. Tough one to pick here, but I’ll usually pick a middle of the road SEC team versus a second tier ACC team.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 4-2 straight up in the last six here, so I like Auburn -1.5; and the over 48.5 as both teams should be able to score.

Well that’s it for the pre-New Year’s Games!

Until next time…

Week 14 Recap

And it’s time for my annual BCS rant. No, I don’t care that Chris Peterson was stuffing the voting box to try and benefit Boise State. He’s a coach voting in the coach’s poll; who cares. I’m just glad to hear an actual coach is voting in the coach’s poll rather than the typical assistant training who doesn’t watch much football. And no, I don’t care that Arkansas, Kansas State, Boise State, and South Carolina were denied in favor of Va. Tech and Michigan. What I do care about is how the system calculates things. The fact that Western Arizona Community College was ranked 30^th in one of the BCS computer rankings towards the end of October is asinine. A junior college is getting ranked? Then again, Arizona State should look to WACC to find some of their “stellar” JuCo transfers.

And, look at the games we are left with. The Sugar Bowl match-up features two teams (Michigan and Va. Tech) who have a combined one win against current Top-25 teams, and the Orange Bowl with a pair of three loss teams. Nice BCS system we’ve got. I officially call for a six team playoff. Seeds #1 and #2 get a bye (but they have to have actually won their conference to get a #1 or #2 seed, sorry Alabama), and a special committee (ala NCAA March Madness) decides on the other four. #3 and #6 play, #4 and #5 play, and then we’re left with a final four, and finally a championship. Five total games; which is the same as the current number of BCS Bowl games. Sure, you can still have your “Papaceasars.net Bowl” featuring the #6 seed from Conference USA against the #4 seed from the MAC.

But no, the BCS folks keep hiding behind 1) tradition, and 2) the poor student athletes that have to travel so much. Let’s tackle #2 first. I could buy this if 1) the bowl season didn’t fall near Christmas break and 2) if there weren’t teams already travelling all over the country during the school year to play games on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights. Back to tradition; the jackasses that use the tradition of the bowl games are the same folks who are tearing apart century old rivalries year after year in the name of conference realignment. All so they can hit the jackpot on their new [fill in the blank] Conference Network channels on DirecTV. Congrats BCS. Now, when does the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl start?

Ok, rant over. Let’s get on to the week 14 Top 10 recap, and look for the Bowl Preview edition soon:

1. The Big East title was up for grabs, and West Virginia had to hold off South Florida, and Cincy had to hold off a furious 4^th quarter rally by UConn to capture the three way tie in the….oh who cares. It’s the Big East.

2. Any voter that had Va. Tech and Houston in their top-5 shouldn’t be allowed to vote anymore. As I said a few weeks ago, Houston’s signature win was against 6-7 UCLA and Va. Tech’s was, wait, don’t tell me, I’ll think of it…

3. Oregon won it’s third straight conference title, but keep in mind the Ducks, while they’ve rolled through the PAC-12 the last few years, have lost two straight BCS bowls. Though the result was never in doubt, UCLA did move the ball well on Oregon, and despite four turnovers, put up 31 on the Ducks. Don’t think for a second Monte Ball and company didn’t notice that. Wisconsin/Oregon will be a great Rose Bowl!

4. Keenum had a shot to sway some Heisman voters, Houston had a shot at a BCS at large bid for the first time ever; in the end, Southern Miss ended up costing their own Conference USA $17 million dollars in the upset win over Houston. And no, Larry Fedora, you don’t deserve a BCS at large bid for beating Houston and winning C-USA. You lost to Marshall and UAB for crying out loud. Have fun in Hawaii.

5. Where Keenum failed in his national audience Heisman spotlight, RG3 did not, dismantling the statistically best defense in the Big 12. Baylor has now beaten Texas two straight, and Texas finished with back-to-back losing records in the conference for the first time since before World War II.

6. As they were tearing down goal posts and storming the field in Stillwater, it was sad to think that even with Oklahoma State’s annihilation of Oklahoma, they wouldn’t be jumping Alabama into the #2 spot. More so, because the Cowboys won in a way that they needed to in order to be given consideration. 44-10 over Oklahoma for their first Bedlam win since 2003 (and they didn’t even score in the 4^th quarter), undisputed champion in what is clearly the #2 conference in the country right now, and they really weren’t even given much consideration. Oh well, that’s the BCS for ya.

7. So Virginia Tech hasn’t beaten a currently ranked team, and has been blown out twice now by a three loss Clemson team, and they get a BCS at large bid? Oh well, that’s the BCS for ya.

8. Another ranked opponent goes down against LSU. I’m really beginning to wonder if these guys wouldn’t be able to compete with some of the teams we see on Sunday. IF (and that’s a big if as Vegas only has them favored by 1) LSU beats Alabama again, I’m ready to put them in the Top-10 teams ever, and probably Top-5 that I’ve seen in my college football watching days.

9. It’s really a shame that we aren’t gonna see the #2 offense in the nation going up against the #2 defense in the nation for all the marbles. Then again, I believe the BCS has been talking to David Stern. Just like how the NBA wasn’t ready for the early 2000-era Phoenix Suns style of play to win it all, I don’t think the college football establishment is ready for what Oklahoma State has done this year (win with huge offense, nation-leading number of turnovers forced, yet a defense ranked in the high 90s). Okay, maybe a little conspiracy theory, I guess…

10. The five bowl games I’m really looking forward to are 5) Cotton Bowl (Arkansas/Kansas State), 4) Outback Bowl (Georgia/Michigan State), 3) Capital One Bowl (South Carolina/Nebraska), 2) Rose Bowl (Oregon/Wisconsin), and 1) Fiesta Bowl (Oklahoma State/Stanford).

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

#1 LSU (13-0) – The Green Bay Packers of college football, except with a better defense.

#2 Alabama (11-1) – I wouldn’t be surprised to see you beat LSU this time around.

#3 Oklahoma State (11-1) – Don’t lose to Iowa State next time!

#4 Oregon (10-2) – Don’t lose to USC next time!

#5 Stanford (11-1) – Don’t lose to Oregon next time!

#6 Arkansas (10-2) – Don’t lose to LSU and Alabama next time!

#7 Boise State (11-1) – Make a FG!

#8 South Carolina (10-2) – Don’t lose to Auburn and Arkansas next time!

#9 Kansas State (10-2) – Who are you?

#10 Wisconsin (11-2) – Play some hail mary defense! Knock it down!!!

Heisman Watch:

Robert Griffin III, Baylor – I still think Luck deserves it, but RG3’s numbers are better in every category: 3,998 yards passing (to Luck’s 3,170), 36 TDs (35), 6 INTs (9), completion % 72.4 (70), 644 rushing yards (153), 9 rushing TDs (2), and passer rating 192.3 (167.5). And, as solid as Luck was all year, RG3 had way more “did you see that” moments starting with the 50-48 upset of TCU in week 1, and ending with the rout of Texas this past weekend. But, the voters are largely stupid sheep, so congrats Trent Richardson!

Until next time…

Week 13 Recap and Week 14 Preview

Well it’s Championship Week in college football, but we already know who’s playing for the BCS Championship. Enough has been ranted and debated about the Alabama/LSU rematch, but I really don’t see any scenario where that doesn’t happen. And, I’m fine with that. Sort of. To steal a line from a caller into a Chicago sports talk radio show – it’s kinda like Thanksgiving dinner. The dinner is incredible, and while there’s high hopes for the leftovers, the second time around isn’t ever as good as the first. Or, similar to movie sequels (well, except for Back to the Future II and III of course, and a close second with Karate Kid II and III).

The BCS continues to expose itself as a joke, using computer formulas that are not know to anyone inside college football, and using “coach’s” polls as a big chunk of its rankings. If karma truly exists, we’ll have 7-5 Louisville win the Big East spot, Georgia win the SEC spot, Oklahoma win the Big-12 spot, UCLA win the PAC-12 game, Clemson win the ACC, and Michigan State win the Big Ten spot. With LSU/Alabama already decided as the title game, that would mean Boise and Stanford get screwed out of BCS games.

I was a huge 6-0 in big games this past weekend, and moved up to 39-17 overall on the year, which ain’t too shabby. No Top-10 recap this week, as quite honestly, I’m hung over from the fact that we have two weeks of games before bowls start, and we already know who the #1 and #2 teams will be.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

#1 LSU (12-0) – 12-0 for the first time in school history.

#2 Alabama (11-1) – Lay off the Tide. They did nothing to deserve this criticism, except miss 4 FGs against LSU. It’s not their fault that since their loss, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Stanford, Boise State, and Arkansas all lost…

#3 Oklahoma State (10-1) – Don’t like the system? Well, don’t lose to Iowa State.

#4 Oregon (10-2) – Favored by 32.5 in the inaugural PAC-12 Championship against a team that fired their coach (and UCLA had to petition for bowl eligibility when they lose and wind up 6-7: how can you make a conference championship and not even be bowl eligible?!!?!).

#5 Stanford (11-1) – As much as I think you should be given more serious consideration to be ~#2, you did lose at home to a 2-loss team, and needed triple O.T. at home to beat a USC team that’s on probation.

#6 Arkansas (10-2) – In any other conference this year, you’re 12-0.

#7 Boise State (11-1) – Two missed kicks = two missed chances to get to #2 in the last two years.

#8 Virginia Tech (11-1) – Let’s see, favored by 7 on a neutral field against an opponent you lost to by 20 at home a few weeks ago? This is the ACC…

#9 Oklahoma (10-2) – The thing I’ll miss most without a true Big 12 Championship game is the 5 million references to Dr. Pepper.

#10 Houston (12-0) – Just don’t blow it against Southern Miss, and your undefeated dream is a reality (and I called this in week 1)!

Rising Fast:

Coaching Resumes – 12 coaching vacancies in D1, not even counting the recently filled jobs at Ohio State, Washington State, and UofSuck.

Falling Faster:

Illinois – Losing six straight is one thing; but losing to Minnesota? That’s just embarrassing!

Heisman Watch:

Case Keenum, Houston – 300+ yards passing in every game this season (despite sitting for large chunks of the fourth quarter in 9 of 12 games), 43 TDs, and only 3 INTs. And, Houston is one win away from a BCS berth.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

LSU v. Alabama – Meh. I don’t see any way this match up doesn’t happen, and quite honestly I probably won’t watch. I’ve seen it already. And of course the BCS cop-out will be “the system works great! It always gives us the #1 and #2 matchup.” Yawn.

Week 14 Big Games:

Southern Miss v. Houston – Can the C-USA winner get the Big East’s automatic bid? Houston’s dream season continues – 44 to 20

Virginia Tech v. Clemson – Va. Tech is 2-0 in the ACC Championship when facing an opponent they lost to on the regular season. Clemson’s struggling, losing 3 of their last 4, and Va. Tech has reeled of seven straight since losing to Clemson in Blacksburg. Va. Tech is 7^th in the nation in scoring defense, while coming off that statement win 38-0 on the road @ Virginia last week. Va. Tech is the better team, and will win this one handily 27 to 17

Wisconsin v. Michigan State – Wisconsin’s two hail mary’s away from undefeated. They boast the 4^th best scoring offense and 4^th best scoring defense in the country. Michigan State’s two losses (Notre Dame and Nebraska) were away from home. Indianapolis won’t be friendly to the Spartans. Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl: 38 to 24

Georgia v. LSU – LSU is in the national championship with a win or a loss here, and Georgia needs a win to go to a BCS game. Georgia’s rattled off ten straight, following those first two loses to Boise State and South Carolina, but let’s not kid ourselves here; LSU is not taking this game lightly. Les knows he has a chance to cement this team in as one of the best ever in college football. Yes, I said that. Look at their resume so far: 7-0 v. ranked teams, 3-0 v. teams ranked #2 or #3. A win against Georgia and another win against Alabama would make them an amazing 14-0 with wins against nine ranked teams, including conference champs (well, likely conference champs) from two other BCS conferences. Amazing. No let down here: LSU 41 Georgia 27.

Week 14 Games of the Week:

Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State – Bedlam, winner wins the Big 12. Tons of passing offense (both in the top 5) and scoring (both in the top 10) and very little defense. Oklahoma has owned the Cowboys, winning eight straight in this series. And keep an eye on the skies – cold weather and lots of rain could increase the turn over total for one team, or both. It pains me to say this; cold, nasty weather will create an ugly game; and that favors the Sooners. Oklahoma 37 Oklahoma State 31

Until next time…