On the drive home from work the last couple of weeks, the angle of the sun has been slightly different. The air is a bit colder, the mosquitos a bit worse, and the DVR is cranking away recording all new episodes of “Bering Sea Gold.” That can only mean one thing: it’s back!
So, with only a couple days to go until the 2014-2015 kick-off, college football is back, and the Autumn Wind is back for its 8th season. In this preseason edition, I’ll list my top things to watch for this year; I’ll offer up my games of the week; and my pre-season Top-10, why they’ll win it, and why they won’t. We’ll also get into the four team playoff, and how it’s a guarantee that the SEC will take two of those spots. I’ll pick the conference winners, Heisman winner, playoff participants, and national champs. A few rants and raves will follow, and I’ll try not bore you with details of how bad this season will be for Notre Dame – academic investigations/suspensions, one of the worst schedules in the nation (Vegas had their win total O/U at 7.5, and that was pre-suspensions) and loss of many key weapons on offense and defense. It’s going to be a long Autumn in South Bend.
For year 8 of the Autumn Wind (and for what really should be an eight team playoff), let’s look at the top 8 things to watch for this season.
Top-8 Things to Watch for This Season
1. The first year of the four team playoff is going to dominate the discussion this year. I already don’t like it, and the season hasn’t even started yet. Why? Well, I think Stanford’s coach says it best when he talks about the inequalities in scheduling within the major conferences. Some play everyone in their conference, most don’t; many have a conference championship, some don’t; some sprinkle in a bunch of gimme’s in their non-conference play; others at least try to schedule some quality non-conference games (which of course is tough to predict many years out how quality those games will be when they actually arrive). But most of all – six major conferences (well, five; we don’t really count the Big E….errr, AAC) and only four spots in the playoffs. That means, at best – and I’ll say it again, at best; one of the major conference champions won’t get into the playoff. And, this year particularly, I think there’s only two spots available, as the SEC champions is obviously in, and I believe the SEC will get a second team in the Top 4. Sure, the argument is that the playoff is designed to put the top four teams in regardless of conference, but it’s just not right that one, two, or even three major conference champions won’t make the playoff. But hey, they’ve got until 2025 to figure this all out, so let’s just have fun with it.
2. While the SEC is clearly the #1 conference still, the PAC-12 continues to rise. We all know about Stanford and Oregon. But, they may not even win the conference. UCLA is the top dog right now, and Washington, USC, and ASU are all on the rise as well. Now, let’s just forget about Washington State, Colorado, and Utah…
3. Ohio State was in most people’s Top 5, but with the loss of their Heisman candidate QB, there is serious doubt as to how Ohio State will perform. They’re certainly talented enough all over the place to win games even with a new QB, but their schedule isn’t going to do them any favors. They only have one ranked team on the schedule: @ Michigan State. Their non-con is Navy, Virginia Tech, Kent State, and Cincinnati (that’s one reference, Ryan); certainly not going to get them many points from the committee. So, basically, their season comes down to the Michigan State game. If they can scrap together an undefeated season, they will be in the Top 4, but of all the teams out there, they have the littlest room for error.
4. I take that back. Marshall has the littlest room for error. There’s talk that they’ll run the table and make a play for #4, but that’s just not going to happen. I hope they go undefeated and have a great season, I really do. But they play no one. Literally. I think their toughest game is FIU. Even if every other team in the country has two losses, Marshall doesn’t deserve to be in the Top 4. Put them in a bowl game against someone from a power conference, but don’t waste a spot in the playoff on them. The difference between the NCAA basketball tourney (where we all love a Cinderella making a run to the Sweet 16, or even Elite 8, or occasionally Final Four) and football is the Cinderalla’s don’t belong in a four team playoff. Before the “but what about Boise State over Oklahoma?” talk starts, remember that Boise was a helluva team that year and Oklahoma was overrated (and Boise was actually ranked higher than OU in that game).
5. For major conference predictions, I like Alabama beating South Carolina to take the SEC, Michigan State clawing it out against Wisconsin to win the Big 10, Florida State over North Carolina the ACC, UCLA over Oregon in the PAC-12, and Oklahoma in the Big 12.
6. I know this year is the last scheduled game between Notre Dame and Michigan. And I know that Notre Dame probably won’t ever join a conference, even though they’re now trending away from a Big 10 dominated schedule to an ACC dominated schedule. And, they’ll always retain Navy, USC, and Stanford on the schedule. But dammit, find a way to make that Michigan-Notre Dame game a permanent annual game. Frankly, college football is just better when that game is always on the schedule every year.
7. It’ll be interesting to watch how some of the big name coaches perform at their new schools: Charlie Strong at Texas, Sarkisian at USC, Bobby Petrino back to Louisville again, and Chris Petersen moving over from Boise State to Washington. But, the most intriguing move I’ll be watching is Lame Kiffin as the offensive coordinator at Alabama. It’s no secret I’m not a fan of Kiffin, mainly because he’s been an over paid under achiever living off the laurels of his dad and the promise of success when he never sticks around to see it through (mainly because he gets run out of town within a year or two, with a fat wallet). But, as horrible as he is, well was, as a head coach either in college or the NFL, he is a very good offense mind, and when plugged into the right situation, he should excel. And if anyone knows how to plug people into the right situation, it’s Nick Saban. Perfect timing too, with a full stable of running backs to provide a little relief to a new QB at Alabama.
8. It was nearly seven years ago when Appalachian State upset then #5 Michigan in the Big House, and lost the following week to Oregon. Notre Dame was upset by Georgia Tech in week 1, and destroyed by Penn State in week 2. That marked the first time ever in this history of college football that both Michigan and Notre Dame started the season 0-2, and marked the first time since 1909 that both Michigan and Notre Dame were unranked when they played. Those two weeks and what transpired were what spawned what we now know at the Autumn Wind. The last couple of years I keep swearing up and down that I’m done with this blog, but then I get the itch again right before the season starts. Let’s enjoy the ride once again!
Games of the Week
Week 1: Wisconsin v. LSU – Huge implications for strength of schedule points for later in the season. But both are still going to need to win their conferences if they want to get into the playoff.
Week 2: Michigan State @ Oregon – It’s like the Rose Bowl. In September. In Oregon.
Week 3: Georgia @ South Carolina – It’s like the SEC East semifinal.
Week 4: Clemson @ Florida State – FSU’s only major test of the year, and they’ll probably be a 16.5 point favorite.
Week 5: UCLA @ ASU – Big road test for UCLA. It’ll still be hot in the desert.
Week 6: LSU @ Auburn – Both need a win to keep their hopes alive in the NFL Southeast, I mean SEC West.
Week 7: Oregon @ UCLA – Preview of the PAC-12 Championship?
Week 8: Texas A&M @ Alabama – No Johnny Football, but let’s not forget how much Saban hated these games the last two years, even though Alabama won last year.
Week 9: South Carolina @ Auburn – Will South Carolina be fighting to stay on top in the SEC or just fighting to play spoiler?
Week 10: Stanford @ Oregon – Can the Trees make it three in a row over the Ducks?
Week 11: Alabama @ LSU – Always one of the most entertaining and competitive games of the year. It usually plays like an NFL game.
Week 12: Auburn @ Georgia – Bulldogs usually peak late. A victory here keeps them in contention for both the SEC and the playoff.
Week 13: USC @ UCLA – UCLA has owned USC recently. They’ll need for that to continue to win the PAC-12 and get to the playoff.
Week 14: Auburn @ Alabama – Iron Bowl. ‘Nuff said.
Week 15: Kansas State @ Baylor – Will they be playing for second place in the Big 12, or for a shot at the playoff?
The Pre-Season Top-10
#1. Florida State – No brainer here; the National Champs return their Heisman trophy QB, and they’ll be double digit favorites in every game this year. They only have two preseason ranked teams (Clemson and Notre Dame), and both are at home (as is the end of season matchup against Florida). Assuming they don’t lose @ NC State following the Clemson game, Florida State should roll into the playoff as the #1 seed.
#2. Oklahoma – Fourteen returning starters, a favorable schedule (both Kansas State and Baylor @ home), and a lot of momentum after knocking around Alabama in their bowl game last year propel Oklahoma into #2. We’ll also get to see if the Big-12 not having a conference championship game helps or hurts their chances at getting into the top 4.
#3. UCLA – Oregon should be the pick here, but since Oregon can’t beat Stanford, and since UCLA has Oregon, USC, and Stanford at home, I’m giving the nod to UCLA in the PAC-12. They do have tough games at ASU and Washington, but they’ll also pick up a bit of non-con credibility with Texas and Virginia on the schedule. Besides, you gotta have a Jim Mora (in this case, Junior) involved if we’re talking “PLAYOFFS???? Don’t talk about playoffs!.......Playoffs???”
#4. Alabama – For one second Alabama was looking like a three peat, and the next second they had their hearts ripped out by Auburn. And, I agree with Saban; they didn’t care about the bowl game against Oklahoma, so that outcome means nothing to the Tide. A couple things to keep in mind – two of their three most recent championships came with 1st year QB’s (so the loss of McCarron isn’t huge) and three times in the last five years Alabama wasn’t the preseason #1 (of course they went on to win it all those three years). But, the SEC West is stacked again as usual, so it’s a good thing Alabama’s non-con is West Virginia, Florida Atlantic, Southern Miss, and Western Carolina.
#5. Oregon – This may be Oregon’s best all-around team yet, but until they can beat Stanford, they’re going to have a hard time getting into the Top-4. The week 2 test against Michigan State will surely show us if they’re able to win a physical, grind-it-out game, because that’s exactly what Sparty is going to try to do.
#6. Michigan State – If, and it’s a big if, Michigan State can go to Autzen in week 2 and win against Oregon, they should be able to sneak into the Top 4. Ohio State is crushed with the loss of Miller, and they don’t have to play Wisconsin. They basically just have to beat Nebraska at home (and we all know how poor Nebraska has been on the road in Big 10 play).
#7. Auburn – Teams have had all off-season to prepare for Gus Malzahn’s unique offense that almost sprung the Tiger’s from unranked to National Champs last year. But their schedule is brutal: seven ranked teams, and then a potential SEC Championship and playoff semi-final before getting to play for a National Championship again. Yeah, not gonna happen.
#8. South Carolina – A team that just seems to get a bit better every year, South Carolina has high hopes that this is finally the year they win the SEC. We’ll certainly know if they have a shot right away – before October hits they’ll have played three ranked teams. Of all the teams out there, a four team playoff may benefit South Carolina the most; they may not even need to play in the SEC Championship to sneak into the Top 4.
#9. Baylor – If Oklahoma doesn’t win the Big 12, Baylor should. The highest scoring team in the country has a cakewalk of a schedule, and while I mentioned earlier the Big 12 doesn’t benefit from a Conference Championship game; the final week does give us a default Big 12 four team playoff with Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State and Baylor v. Kansas State.
#10. Wisconsin – Speaking of favorable schedules, after LSU on August 30th, Wisconsin doesn’t play another ranked team until Nebraska on November 15th. And they completely avoid Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State. If Wisconsin can roll through LSU in week 1, they could be a team that sneaks into #4.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – They don’t like giving the Heisman to the same person twice. The expectations are just too high. So, Winston is out. Mariota is in for one big reason: week 2 versus Michigan State. If he (and Oregon) shines in that game, Mariota can cruise to the Heisman.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 South Carolina
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama
Wait, I’ve South Carolina at #8 in my poll, but #4 in my playoff seeds? Yep. Remember, the committee will largely throw poll position out the window in making their Top 4 selections.
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – just too many weapons for FSU, and it would be interesting if FSU repeats and starts their own dynasty by beating Alabama.
Week 1 Big Games:
Texas A&M @ South Carolina – This may be the year South Carolina finally wins the SEC. And, A&M is ranked mainly because of their laurels or the last two years. Their defense is still horrible, and their offense won’t be able to score enough to win any shootouts. Vegas agrees and has South Carolina as double digit favorites. South Carolina 31 Texas A&M 17.
Clemson @ Georgia – No Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins for Clemson, and no Aaron Murray for Georgia, but yet again we have an intriguing opening match-up with Clemson and Georgia. Clemson is off an 11 win season last year, but lost a lot key players. Georgia never seems to start the season well, mainly because they seem to play some giants every year early on. Georgia’s defense will be better this, not great; but still better. And Clemson’s offense will go through some growing pains without Boyd and Watkins. And, it’s in Athens. That’s enough to give the nod to Georgia 38 to 23.
Week 1 Game of the Week:
Wisconsin @ LSU – Lots of defense and power running in this matchup of Top 15 teams. Wisconsin has an eye on the Big 12 Championship and LSU is hoping to escape out of the SEC West. But, both need a win here to have an early advantage at one of the four playoff seeds. Both teams are pretty evenly matched, however, I’ll give the nod to LSU for a couple reasons: 1) SEC over Big 10 pretty much any day, 2) Wisconsin struggled last year in close games (and this one will be close), and 3) under Les Miles, LSU is undefeated against ranked non-con opponents, and this is the fourth year out of five that LSU has opened with a ranked non-con opponent. Let’s take LSU, down to the wire: 24-21.
Until next time…
