And here’s part duex of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview Edition! Enjoy!
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPN2
Georgia v. Nebraska
The first bowl game of 2014 gives us a rematch of a bowl game from last season. Georgia is beaten up and Pelini keeps begging Nebraska to fire him. Both teams played a ton of close games this year, including several that weren’t decided until the final minutes (and how different of a bowl picture are we seeing if Auburn doesn’t beat Georgia on that bizarre hail mary?). So, look for a close game here. In these cases I always have to pick the SEC over the Big 10. Sorry Nebraska.
Gambling angle: The SEC has beaten the Big 10 in three straight here, but underdogs have also covered two out of the last three. I like Georgia to win, but not by nine; let’s take Nebraska +9 and the over 60.5 as both defenses have struggled all year.
Heart of Dallas Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPNU
North Texas v. UNLV
Last year we were graced with Oklahoma State and Purdue in the “Used to be Ticket City Bowl” and now we get North Texas and UNLV? Yikes. And it’s in the time slot competing with Georgia/Nebraska, which means no one will watch it. North Texas is pretty much at home, so they’ll win this one.
Gambling angle: No strong trends here for such a young bowl game, so I like North Texas -6.5 and the under 54.5.
Outback Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ESPN
LSU v. Iowa
The Outback Bowl is turning into one of my favorite bowls of the year. It always matches up Big 10 versus SEC teams. But top tier teams from each conference, not the stragglers that the Gator Bowl and others get. And, usually on paper the SEC team is supposed to be the dominant team. But looking back 20+ years, the SEC is only 12-9 against the Big 10 here. And remember Michigan State’s shocking upset of Georgia two years ago and Michigan’s near upset of South Carolina last year? LSU and injured and deflated, and Iowa surprised all with an eight win season. I’m smelling an upset here…
Gambling angle: The Big-10 has covered or tied the spread eight of the last 11 Outback bowls (as it’s usually a motivated Big-10 team and an unmotivated SEC team), so I like Iowa +7.5 the under 49.
Capital One Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ABC
South Carolina v. Wisconsin
Another good Big 10/SEC match up here, with solid defenses and smash mouth offenses. After the unexpected loss @ Tennessee, South Carolina has rattled off five straight wins, including victories against #5 Missouri and #6 Clemson. Wisconsin’s three losses were really only two (@ Ohio State and v. Penn State) as they should’ve beaten ASU on the road if the refs don’t blow it. If they do make that chip shot field goal, they’re probably closer to a Top-10 ranking. South Carolina is only giving up 20 points a game and Wisconsin on 15, so points will be at a premium. South Carolina has the momentum, and in a Big 10/SEC match up, I usually will pick the SEC, especially if it’s a hungry team. South Carolina by a FG.
Gambling angle: Five of the last eight have played under, and that seems appropriate with these defenses, so I like the under 51. The game is a pick ‘em, and I gotta go with South Carolina.
Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO – Jan. 1, 5:00pm EST ESPN
Michigan State v. Stanford
The 100th Rose Bowl takes place this year, and with these two teams, it looks similar to the matchup from 100 years ago. Points will be at a premium, but off-tackle right FB dives will not be. Stanford’s style lends itself to close games, and Michigan State’s defense is about the best in the land so this will be a close, low scoring game. I still don’t know how/why Stanford lost to Utah, but Stanford beat Notre Dame and Notre Dame beat Michigan State. That’s enough for me to pick the Cardinal in this one.
Gambling angle: The Big 10 has only won this game once since 2000, but the last three have been close, decided by a total of 15 points. Favorites tend to do well in Pasadena, so I like Stanford -4.5 and the under 42.5.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl – Jan. 1, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Baylor v. UCF
How many had Baylor and UCF in their preseason prediction for the Fiesta Bowl? Thought so. UCF comes in after winning the AAC, and their only loss was by a FG to South Carolina. But, the problem is, they had several other close calls; seven of their wins were decided by seven or less. That won’t bode well against the #1 offense in the country. Baylor, in a rout.
Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered four of the last six Fiesta Bowls, but the two that didn’t cover were when Kansas State was overmatched with Oregon last year and UConn got stuck with Oklahoma a couple years ago. Even though Baylor’s spread is the highest of the bowls this year, I like them to light things up. Baylor -16.5 and the over 68 is the play here.
Allstate Sugar Bowl – Jan. 2, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Alabama v. Oklahoma
After two years of bad match-ups, the Sugar Bowl gets a dream pairing of Alabama and Oklahoma. Alabama should be playing for the National Championship (again) and Oklahoma rebounded after the embarrassing loss to Baylor with their upset over Oklahoma State in the final game of the year to grab an at-large BCS bid. Alabama is a huge favorite, and rightfully so, but you do have to remember the last time an Alabama team wound up in the Sugar Bowl after a heartbreaking loss to close the season. Utah smacked them upside the head in the 2009 Sugar Bowl, winning 31-17. But, the Texas rumors are kaput, and Saban needs a win here to keep the recruiting train running through Tuscaloosa. Speaking of running, Alabama is 45-1 under A.J. McCarron when they rush for 125+ yards and only 4-5 when they don’t, so look for a steady dose of T.J. Yeldon and company. And, this will be the best defense that Oklahoma faces by far, much better than the Texas and Baylor defenses that held Oklahoma to 20 and 12 points in their two losses. ‘Bama wins in a rout.
Gambling angle: 15 is a lot of points to give up, but I’ll do it. Alabama -15 and the under 51.5 as the Tide defense will limit Oklahoma to less than 20 points.
AT&T Cotton Bowl – Jan. 3, 7:30pm EST FOX
Missouri v. Oklahoma State
Old Big 12 foes are at it again in the Cotton Bowl, following up last year’s match up of Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Missouri was the surprise in the SEC this year, and Oklahoma State once again blew a chance at the Big 12 Championship by losing Bedlam (again). Missouri, despite coming out of nowhere, is still one of the most underrated teams in the country, losing only that double O.T. thriller against South Carolina and keeping it pretty darn close against the buzz saw that is Auburn this year. Oklahoma State will score, but they won’t be able to score enough to overcome the Tigers. I like Missouri in a shootout.
Gambling angle: The SEC is 9-1 straight up over the Big-12 in this game. That will continue, and I like Missouri -1 and the over has hit two out of the last three here, so I gotta take the over 60.5 with these two offenses.
Discover Orange Bowl – Jan. 3, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Ohio State v. Clemson
Ohio State was one win away from a National Championship and Clemson lost the only two real games they played all year. It’s going to be hard to motivate the Buckeyes, who slipped up against the Spartans in the Big 10 Championship game. There will be lots of offense in this one, and we get to watch Boyd to Watkins one final time. I like Clemson to win this one, if for no other reason than I hate Ohio State.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 7-3 against the spread and the under has hit eight out of 11, and with good reason. Some overvalued BCS teams against some undervalued opponents. Let’s take Clemson +2.5 and the under 67.5.
BBVA Compass Bowl – Jan. 4, 1:00pm EST ESPN
Houston v. Vanderbilt
After 33 games we get Houston and Vanderbilt on January 4th? At least it’s a Saturday and there’s probably something else to do. Vandy’s QB is hurt, and Houston led the nation in turnover margin and takeaways. Houston gets the W.
Gambling angle: Let’s take Houston +3 and the under 54 (again, only because I’m picking lines and O/U’s on every game).
GoDaddy Bowl – Jan. 5, 9:00pm EST ESPN
Ball State v. Arkansas State
They should just change the name of this bowl to the Arkansas State bowl, as this is their third straight visit here. Ball State won 10 games for just the third time in school history, but is 0-7-1 in bowl games. If you’re not doing anything on this Sunday night, go ahead and watch Ball State win their first bowl game.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 8-1-2 against the spread in this game, so let’s look to Ball State -9 and the under 63.5.
Discover BCS National Championship – Jan. 6, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Florida State v. Auburn
The BCS comes to a close, and while Auburn may be the team of destiny, in order to win, they need to defeat a Florida State team that won all of its games by an average score of 53-10 and finished 2nd in the country in scoring and 1st in points allowed (a very rare thing). Auburn needed some magic to get here, the improbable wins in the closing moments against Georgia and Alabama; and then knocking off a very good Missouri team in the SEC Championship. On paper, FSU wins in a rout (especially with how suspect Auburn’s defense is), but there are several factors to consider here, even outside of the destiny talk. FSU hasn’t faced a rushing attack like Auburn. In fact, the one very strong rushing team that FSU played, Boston College, kept it pretty close. FSU didn’t play another close game. How will they do when Auburn not only matches them blow-for-blow early on, but then frustrates the FSU offense by keeping the FSU defense on the field for long drives? Auburn is battle tested and knows how to win close games, but FSU is not. And, of course you can’t ignore the SEC’s 7-game BCS Championship winning streak. And finally, check out these numbers: in the last 10 years the BCS Championship has been played between an undefeated team and a one loss team three times and the one loss team is 3-0, winning all three by 20+ points. And FSU’s strength of schedule is the lowest of any championship team in the last ten years. The three previous lowest (2006 Ohio State, 2007 Ohio State, and 2009 Texas) all lost to SEC teams by more than 14 points. But, the month off will benefit Florida State more than Auburn (who’s relying on a ton of momentum), and Auburn’s Achilles heel is its defense. They’ll score on FSU, but can they hold FSU to under 50? I don’t think so. FSU wins the final BCS Championship, but it comes down to the wire: FSU 52 Auburn 45.
Gambling angle: The SEC is 7-0 straight up and against the spread here, so gotta stick with that (at least for the spread). Auburn +8.5 and the over 67.
Well, that’s it for 2013’s college football season! From all of the editors, statisticians, researchers, and other contributors at the Autumn Wind (oh wait – it’s just me): Happy New Year!
Monday, December 30, 2013
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Bowl Preview Edition - Part I
Here’s Part I of the 7th annual edition of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview. I’ll break ‘em all down: 35 bowls, 70 teams, starting December 21st and ending January 6th, including some very intriguing match-ups in non-BCS bowls. Here’s the games, dates, times, TV coverage, and angles (for entertainment purposes only) up to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on December 31st. I’ll post the update for the real bowl games next week. Enjoy the last few weeks of the 2013-2014 college football season!
Gildan New Mexico Bowl – Dec. 21, 2:00pm EST ESPN
Washington State v. Colorado State
A couple of teams new to bowls start off the 2012-2013 bowl season, as Colorado State is bowling for the first time since 2008 and Washington State gets in at 6-6 for the first time since 2003. Keep an eye Kapri Bibbs, the running back no one has heard of. He plays for Colorado State and leads the nation with 28 rushing touchdowns. And Washington State’s defense has been torched by some of the stronger rushing teams in the PAC-12 this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Colorado State pulls the upset.
Gambling angle: This is the 8th New Mexico Bowl – and underdogs have not only covered five of the first seven, but won outright in four of those (and Nevada nearly upset UofSuck as a 10-point dog last year). In addition the over has hit in the last five. Let’s look for Colorado State to cover the +4, perhaps winning outright, and even though the over is at 65, I think they’ll get there as Leach’s pass-happy offense will put some points on the board as well.
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl – Dec. 21, 3:30pm EST ABC
Fresno State v. USC
Fresno State was one win away from busting the BCS, and UCS is on their third coach of the year. The match-up here is Fresno’s high powered offense versus UCS’s stingy defense. And, even though Fresno’s defense is horrible, UCS’s offense is just as bad. I’m excited about the game as it’s pretty rare to have a matchup of two ranked teams this early in the bowl season.
Gambling angle: I like Fresno State +6 (and maybe an outright win) and with ten of the last 15 Vegas Bowl’s hitting the under, I like the under 62 as USC’s offense is bad but their defense is going to keep Fresno in check.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Dec. 21, 5:30pm EST ESPN
Buffalo v. San Diego State
Ohio State destroyed San Diego State, but Buffalo played the Buckeyes pretty close. That was back in September though, and things have obviously changes since then. Three of San Diego State’s wins came in overtime, and another two wins were separated by five points or less and they only beat 2-10 Air Force by seven. December in Idaho will favor Buffalo, so let’s go ahead and pick them.
Gambling angle: No strong trends here: underdogs are 4-3-1 against the spread the last eight here, and half of the last six have played to either the over or the under. The game is a pick ‘em, and lets pick Buffalo and the under 63.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Dec. 21, 9:00pm EST ESPN
Tulane v. Louisiana-Lafayette
We should just change the name of this bowl to the Louisiana-Lafayette bowl as they’re making their third straight appearance (also winning the last two). Both teams lost to South Alabama, so take that for what it’s worth. I should like LA-LF at home, but Joe Montana’s kid (Nick) has led a nice turn around for Tulane’s program that’s only in their 4th bowl game in 30 years.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 5-3 in the past eight and six of the past seven have played over the total. The game’s a pick ‘em, so let’s take Tulane and the over 56.
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl – Dec 23, 2:00pm EST ESPN
East Carolina v. Ohio
If you don’t have anything better to do than watch this game, then go ahead and jump off of a cliff. The most interesting part of this game will be the O/U on Beef ‘O’ Brady commercials. Let’s put it at 9.5.
Gambling angle: This is the 6th Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, somehow it still keeps going. Let’s take ECU -13.5 and the over 61.5, not that anyone will be watching.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl – Dec. 24, 8:00pm ESPN
Boise State v. Oregon State
Peterson won’t be coaching the Broncos, focusing on his upcoming job with Washington. That’s gotta favor Oregon State. As usual, there’s going to massive offense in this game (even more so then usual, thanks to two crappy defenses), so I think we’re looking at a shoot-out. Boise State will win this one in a squeaker.
Gambling angle: Boise State opened -3, but now it’s moved to Oregon State -3, Underdogs have won, and covered, four of the past five here, and seven of the last 11 have played over. I like Boise State +3 and the over 65.
Little Caesars Bowl – Dec. 26, 6:00pm EST ESPN
Pittsburgh v. Bowling Green
I like Little Caesars Pizza. That’s about all I’ll say about this game.
Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered five outta six and under total is 9-5 in last 14 Motor City…errrrr, Little Caesars Bowls. Pitt +5.5 and the under 50, I guess.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – Dec. 26, 9:30pm EST ESPN
Utah State v. Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois was one win away from another BCS game, but they stumbled against Bowling Green. On paper, NIU is a much better team than Utah State, but this is the first of those bowls where you’ve gotta wonder if Northern Illinois will show up to play after going from a likely BCS spot to a pre-New Year’s game. And, Utah State may be the best defense that NIU has seen all year. Utah State pulls the upset in a squeaker.
Gambling angle: The Mountain West has won six of the past seven here, so let’s look for that again. Utah State +1.5 and the under 58, as points will be at a premium in this one.
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman – Dec. 27 2:30pm EST ESPN
Marshall v. Maryland
Remember when Maryland was 4-0 and ranked #25? Well, that week they lost to Florida State 63-0 and proceeded to lose four of their next six (winning their only two in that stretch by a total of four points). They did close with a win against ACC winless NC State to finish 7-5, but it’s 9-4 Marshall that comes into this one with all of the momentum. They had won seven of eight before losing to Rice in the Conference USA Championship Game. Marshall is 1st in the nation in passing and 7th in scoring. The problem is they’re defense gives up more than 40/game. The good news is Maryland only scores ~20/game, so I think Marshall comes out on top.
Gambling angle: All five is this bowl’s history have played to the over; so I like the Marshal -2.5 and the over 61.
Texas Bowl – Dec. 27, 6:00pm EST ESPN
Syracuse v. Minnesota
The old Texas Bowl that was the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas is now back to being just the Texas Bowl. Minnesota’s back here again, after given Texas Tech all they could handle last year. And this Gopher team is much better. Syracuse is a middle of the pack ACC team, so you gotta favor Minnesota in this one.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 7-3-2 against the spread in this bowl so let’s take Minnesota -4; and I like the over 47.5 as well as four of the past six played over.
Fight Hunger Bowl – Dec. 27, 9:30pm EST ESPN
BYU v. Washington
I guess Kraft didn’t fight hunger good enough, so it’s just the Fight Hunger Bowl now. Sarkisian is out as he’s the new USC coach, so good ol’ Tuiasosopo will be coaching for Washington. Washington’s only four losses were to ranked PAC-12 teams (Oregon, Stanford, Arizona State, and UCLA), while BYU beat Texas and played Wisconsin and Notre Dame close, but they also lost to Virginia and Utah. Let’s take Washington.
Gambling angle: Let’s look at Washington -3 and the under 58.5.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Dec. 28, 12:00pm EST ESPN
Rutgers v. Notre Dame
Rutgers needed a late win against South Florida to finish 6-6 and get to a bowl. Notre Dame was up and down all season, and just never really regained the “it” they had last year, despite returning most of their starters. Vegas really likes Notre Dame in this one, but as usual, the number is too high. Notre Dame will win, as Rutgers isn’t very good, but it’s going to be an ugly game.
Gambling angle: I’ll take Rutgers +15.5 and the under 52.5.
Belk Bowl – Dec. 28, 3:20pm EST ESPN
Cincinnati v. North Carolina
This would be a great Sweet 16 matchup, but we’re stuck with a football game instead. Cincy rattled off nine wins under Tuberville, and North Carolina bounced back after a 1-5 start to make a bowl. If the New Era Pinstripe Bowl didn’t bore you enough, this one certainly will.
Gambling angle: Cincy won and covered in this game last year, but they’re a 3-point underdog this year against a middle of the road ACC team. I like Cincy +3 and the over 56.5 (if you haven’t figured it out by now, this gambling “advice” is truly for entertainment purposes. Anyone who bets on this game needs to call 1-800-522-4700 immediately.
Russell Athletic Bowl – Dec. 28, 6:45pm ESPN
Miami v. Louisville
Both of these teams had early National Championship hopes before Louisville lost a heartbreaker to eventual AAC Champion UCF and Miami dropped three straight to Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Duke. This is likely Teddy Bridgewater’s last game for Louisville, and he gets to play it very close to where he played his high school ball in Florida. Louisville’s defense is underrated, and it’s kind of a shame that they’re ranked as low as they are for being a one loss team. Miami was exposed mid-season, and they’ll be exposed in this one as well. Louisville wins big in yet another bowl game.
Gambling angle: The ACC is only 3-7 straight up in this game, and the under is 7-1 the past eight. I really like Louisville -3.5 and the under 55.5.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl – Dec. 28, 10:15pm EST ESPN
Michigan v. Kansas State
Michigan stumbles into this bowl, losing five of seven and has an injured QB. And let’s not forget they almost lost to Akron and UConn. Kansas State started poorly, but has won five of their last six (losing only to BCS-at large Oklahoma in a pretty close game). I’d think Kansas State wins this one handily, but they have lost their last five bowl games, and Michigan occasionally performs extremely well (remember the games against Notre Dame and Ohio State?). But, the injury bug will be too much for Michigan to overcome, and Synder is due for a bowl win.
Gambling angle: The over is 8-3 in this last 11 here, and the Big-12 has won five of seven v. Big-10, so I’ll take Kansas State -3.5 and over 55.5
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl – Dec. 30, 11:45am EST ESPN
Middle Tennessee v. Navy
Navy can run the ball and Middle Tennessee cannot stop the run. That’s this one in a nutshell.
Gambling angle: Rice upset Air Force last year, but I don’t see Middle Tennessee figuring out how to stop Navy’s triple option attack, especially with how porous their defense is. Let’s take Navy -6 and the over 55.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Dec. 30, 3:15pm EST ESPN
Ole Miss v. Georgia Tech
A match-up of 7-5 teams in this one. But, one’s from the SEC and the other from ACC. That means the SEC team wins. Don’t forget Ole Miss beat Texas and LSU this year (but do forget they lost to Mississippi State). Georgia Tech’s signature win was over Duke, but that was early in the season, and regardless of how good Duke is this year, it’s never a good thing to have them as your signature win.
Gambling angle: I like Ole Miss -3 (favorites are 6-2-1 the last nine Music City bowls) and since eight of 12 have played under, I like the under 57.
Valero Alamo Bowl – Dec. 30, 6:45pm EST ESPN
Oregon v. Texas
The Big 12 has owned the PAC-12 in recent history in this game which bodes well for Texas. Oregon struggled down the stretch after getting beat down (again) by Stanford, and Texas rebounded nicely after starting slow. This will also be Mack Brown’s final game at the helm for Texas, ending a stellar career that’s been on the slow decline the last couple of years. But, which Oregon team will show up? The National Championship contender, or the team that lost to Stanford and then more or less declared that they didn’t even care about the Rose Bowl (which of course led to another loss)? And, Texas upset Oregon State in this very game last year. But, the Ducks aren’t the Beavers, and this Texas team isn’t as good as last year’s version. I like Oregon in a shootout.
Gambling angle: Trends for both the spread and O/U are pretty even here, so I gotta go with my gut. Oregon will win, but not by 14. I like Texas +14 and the over 67.
National University Holiday Bowl – Dec. 30, 10:15pm EST ESPN
Arizona State v. Texas Tech
Lots of offense in this one, as the teams combine to average more than 90 passes a game. Tech stumbles in at 7-5, losing five straight in the meat of their conference schedule. Whereas, Arizona State comes in with losing to only two teams: Stanford and Notre Dame, and they easily could’ve beaten the Irish. On paper, this should be all Devils, but what scares me is ASU is 0-3 in the Holiday Bowl, and they had their sights set on the Rose Bowl this year. But, they are a much better team, and their offense will cause lots of problems for Tech’s defense which was exposed in their five game skid against Oklahoma (38), Oklahoma State (52), Kansas State (49), Baylor (63), and Texas (41). ASU should get a Holiday Bowl win finally.
Gambling angle: Interesting angle’s here: the PAC-10 doesn’t win (3-9 straight up), but favorites cover (14-3), which is quite the conundrum as ASU is a 14-point favorite. The over 70 looks good (even though it’s the second highest O/U this bowl season), and I’ll lean towards ASU winning, but Tech covering the +14.
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – Dec. 31, 12:30pm EST ESPN
Arizona v. Boston College
Two of the best running backs in the country face off in this one, and I’m sure you’ll hear the announcers say that a dozen or so times. Boston College’s claim to fame this year was only losing to Florida State by 14. UofSuck’s claim to fame was beating Oregon. They both lost to USC, though BC lost worse. That’s enough for me to pick UofSuck.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 7-3 against the spread and the four of the last five here played under. So let’s take UofSuck -7.5 and under 57 as the clock’s going to move quick in this one.
Hyundai Sun Bowl – Dec. 31, 2:00pm EST CBS
Virginia Tech v. UCLA
UCLA’s offense versus Virginia Tech’s defense will be the highlight here. As usual, Va Tech will bring a stingy defense and attempt a ball controlled offense, but they haven’t seen speed like this UCLA team has. UCLA put up 35 on USC just a couple weeks ago, and I expect them to do the same here.
Gambling angle: I’ll take UCLA -7 and the under 47.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Dec 31, 4:00pm EST ESPN
Rice v. Mississippi State
Mississippi State needed an overtime upset over rival Ole Miss to get to bowl eligibility, and they beat Arkansas in overtime the week before to even make a bowl appearance possible. That’s 0-8 in the SEC, Arkansas, in case you forgot. Rice won 10 games and blew out Marshall in the Conference USA Championship and actually played pretty competitively against A&M early in the season. This is one of the few times I’ll pick against the SEC. Go Rice!
Gambling angle: The underdogs have covered eight out of nine here and the under has hit 10 out of the last 14. So, if I had to put action on this game, Rice +7.5 and the under 50.5
Chick-fil-A Bowl – Dec. 31, 8:00pm EST ESPN
Duke v. Texas A&M
We get to see Johnny Manziel one last time before he heads to a complete failure of a career in the NFL (if RG3 can’t cut it, neither will Mr. Football). Duke’s defense kept them in games (even in the FSU game, they were in it for a couple quarters), and with plenty of rest, let’s look for that to continue. A&M probably pulls it out in the end, but I think it’ll be closer than many think.
Gambling angle: The SEC is 5-3 straight up in the last eight here, but I like Duke +12.5; and let’s take the under 73.5 (highest O/U of the bowls) as Manziel isn’t going to be able to run wild against Duke’s defense (how many just mentally pictured Bobby Hurley slapping the court?).
Well that’s it for the pre-New Year’s Games!
Until next time…
Gildan New Mexico Bowl – Dec. 21, 2:00pm EST ESPN
Washington State v. Colorado State
A couple of teams new to bowls start off the 2012-2013 bowl season, as Colorado State is bowling for the first time since 2008 and Washington State gets in at 6-6 for the first time since 2003. Keep an eye Kapri Bibbs, the running back no one has heard of. He plays for Colorado State and leads the nation with 28 rushing touchdowns. And Washington State’s defense has been torched by some of the stronger rushing teams in the PAC-12 this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Colorado State pulls the upset.
Gambling angle: This is the 8th New Mexico Bowl – and underdogs have not only covered five of the first seven, but won outright in four of those (and Nevada nearly upset UofSuck as a 10-point dog last year). In addition the over has hit in the last five. Let’s look for Colorado State to cover the +4, perhaps winning outright, and even though the over is at 65, I think they’ll get there as Leach’s pass-happy offense will put some points on the board as well.
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl – Dec. 21, 3:30pm EST ABC
Fresno State v. USC
Fresno State was one win away from busting the BCS, and UCS is on their third coach of the year. The match-up here is Fresno’s high powered offense versus UCS’s stingy defense. And, even though Fresno’s defense is horrible, UCS’s offense is just as bad. I’m excited about the game as it’s pretty rare to have a matchup of two ranked teams this early in the bowl season.
Gambling angle: I like Fresno State +6 (and maybe an outright win) and with ten of the last 15 Vegas Bowl’s hitting the under, I like the under 62 as USC’s offense is bad but their defense is going to keep Fresno in check.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Dec. 21, 5:30pm EST ESPN
Buffalo v. San Diego State
Ohio State destroyed San Diego State, but Buffalo played the Buckeyes pretty close. That was back in September though, and things have obviously changes since then. Three of San Diego State’s wins came in overtime, and another two wins were separated by five points or less and they only beat 2-10 Air Force by seven. December in Idaho will favor Buffalo, so let’s go ahead and pick them.
Gambling angle: No strong trends here: underdogs are 4-3-1 against the spread the last eight here, and half of the last six have played to either the over or the under. The game is a pick ‘em, and lets pick Buffalo and the under 63.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Dec. 21, 9:00pm EST ESPN
Tulane v. Louisiana-Lafayette
We should just change the name of this bowl to the Louisiana-Lafayette bowl as they’re making their third straight appearance (also winning the last two). Both teams lost to South Alabama, so take that for what it’s worth. I should like LA-LF at home, but Joe Montana’s kid (Nick) has led a nice turn around for Tulane’s program that’s only in their 4th bowl game in 30 years.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 5-3 in the past eight and six of the past seven have played over the total. The game’s a pick ‘em, so let’s take Tulane and the over 56.
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl – Dec 23, 2:00pm EST ESPN
East Carolina v. Ohio
If you don’t have anything better to do than watch this game, then go ahead and jump off of a cliff. The most interesting part of this game will be the O/U on Beef ‘O’ Brady commercials. Let’s put it at 9.5.
Gambling angle: This is the 6th Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, somehow it still keeps going. Let’s take ECU -13.5 and the over 61.5, not that anyone will be watching.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl – Dec. 24, 8:00pm ESPN
Boise State v. Oregon State
Peterson won’t be coaching the Broncos, focusing on his upcoming job with Washington. That’s gotta favor Oregon State. As usual, there’s going to massive offense in this game (even more so then usual, thanks to two crappy defenses), so I think we’re looking at a shoot-out. Boise State will win this one in a squeaker.
Gambling angle: Boise State opened -3, but now it’s moved to Oregon State -3, Underdogs have won, and covered, four of the past five here, and seven of the last 11 have played over. I like Boise State +3 and the over 65.
Little Caesars Bowl – Dec. 26, 6:00pm EST ESPN
Pittsburgh v. Bowling Green
I like Little Caesars Pizza. That’s about all I’ll say about this game.
Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered five outta six and under total is 9-5 in last 14 Motor City…errrrr, Little Caesars Bowls. Pitt +5.5 and the under 50, I guess.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – Dec. 26, 9:30pm EST ESPN
Utah State v. Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois was one win away from another BCS game, but they stumbled against Bowling Green. On paper, NIU is a much better team than Utah State, but this is the first of those bowls where you’ve gotta wonder if Northern Illinois will show up to play after going from a likely BCS spot to a pre-New Year’s game. And, Utah State may be the best defense that NIU has seen all year. Utah State pulls the upset in a squeaker.
Gambling angle: The Mountain West has won six of the past seven here, so let’s look for that again. Utah State +1.5 and the under 58, as points will be at a premium in this one.
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman – Dec. 27 2:30pm EST ESPN
Marshall v. Maryland
Remember when Maryland was 4-0 and ranked #25? Well, that week they lost to Florida State 63-0 and proceeded to lose four of their next six (winning their only two in that stretch by a total of four points). They did close with a win against ACC winless NC State to finish 7-5, but it’s 9-4 Marshall that comes into this one with all of the momentum. They had won seven of eight before losing to Rice in the Conference USA Championship Game. Marshall is 1st in the nation in passing and 7th in scoring. The problem is they’re defense gives up more than 40/game. The good news is Maryland only scores ~20/game, so I think Marshall comes out on top.
Gambling angle: All five is this bowl’s history have played to the over; so I like the Marshal -2.5 and the over 61.
Texas Bowl – Dec. 27, 6:00pm EST ESPN
Syracuse v. Minnesota
The old Texas Bowl that was the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas is now back to being just the Texas Bowl. Minnesota’s back here again, after given Texas Tech all they could handle last year. And this Gopher team is much better. Syracuse is a middle of the pack ACC team, so you gotta favor Minnesota in this one.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 7-3-2 against the spread in this bowl so let’s take Minnesota -4; and I like the over 47.5 as well as four of the past six played over.
Fight Hunger Bowl – Dec. 27, 9:30pm EST ESPN
BYU v. Washington
I guess Kraft didn’t fight hunger good enough, so it’s just the Fight Hunger Bowl now. Sarkisian is out as he’s the new USC coach, so good ol’ Tuiasosopo will be coaching for Washington. Washington’s only four losses were to ranked PAC-12 teams (Oregon, Stanford, Arizona State, and UCLA), while BYU beat Texas and played Wisconsin and Notre Dame close, but they also lost to Virginia and Utah. Let’s take Washington.
Gambling angle: Let’s look at Washington -3 and the under 58.5.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Dec. 28, 12:00pm EST ESPN
Rutgers v. Notre Dame
Rutgers needed a late win against South Florida to finish 6-6 and get to a bowl. Notre Dame was up and down all season, and just never really regained the “it” they had last year, despite returning most of their starters. Vegas really likes Notre Dame in this one, but as usual, the number is too high. Notre Dame will win, as Rutgers isn’t very good, but it’s going to be an ugly game.
Gambling angle: I’ll take Rutgers +15.5 and the under 52.5.
Belk Bowl – Dec. 28, 3:20pm EST ESPN
Cincinnati v. North Carolina
This would be a great Sweet 16 matchup, but we’re stuck with a football game instead. Cincy rattled off nine wins under Tuberville, and North Carolina bounced back after a 1-5 start to make a bowl. If the New Era Pinstripe Bowl didn’t bore you enough, this one certainly will.
Gambling angle: Cincy won and covered in this game last year, but they’re a 3-point underdog this year against a middle of the road ACC team. I like Cincy +3 and the over 56.5 (if you haven’t figured it out by now, this gambling “advice” is truly for entertainment purposes. Anyone who bets on this game needs to call 1-800-522-4700 immediately.
Russell Athletic Bowl – Dec. 28, 6:45pm ESPN
Miami v. Louisville
Both of these teams had early National Championship hopes before Louisville lost a heartbreaker to eventual AAC Champion UCF and Miami dropped three straight to Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Duke. This is likely Teddy Bridgewater’s last game for Louisville, and he gets to play it very close to where he played his high school ball in Florida. Louisville’s defense is underrated, and it’s kind of a shame that they’re ranked as low as they are for being a one loss team. Miami was exposed mid-season, and they’ll be exposed in this one as well. Louisville wins big in yet another bowl game.
Gambling angle: The ACC is only 3-7 straight up in this game, and the under is 7-1 the past eight. I really like Louisville -3.5 and the under 55.5.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl – Dec. 28, 10:15pm EST ESPN
Michigan v. Kansas State
Michigan stumbles into this bowl, losing five of seven and has an injured QB. And let’s not forget they almost lost to Akron and UConn. Kansas State started poorly, but has won five of their last six (losing only to BCS-at large Oklahoma in a pretty close game). I’d think Kansas State wins this one handily, but they have lost their last five bowl games, and Michigan occasionally performs extremely well (remember the games against Notre Dame and Ohio State?). But, the injury bug will be too much for Michigan to overcome, and Synder is due for a bowl win.
Gambling angle: The over is 8-3 in this last 11 here, and the Big-12 has won five of seven v. Big-10, so I’ll take Kansas State -3.5 and over 55.5
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl – Dec. 30, 11:45am EST ESPN
Middle Tennessee v. Navy
Navy can run the ball and Middle Tennessee cannot stop the run. That’s this one in a nutshell.
Gambling angle: Rice upset Air Force last year, but I don’t see Middle Tennessee figuring out how to stop Navy’s triple option attack, especially with how porous their defense is. Let’s take Navy -6 and the over 55.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Dec. 30, 3:15pm EST ESPN
Ole Miss v. Georgia Tech
A match-up of 7-5 teams in this one. But, one’s from the SEC and the other from ACC. That means the SEC team wins. Don’t forget Ole Miss beat Texas and LSU this year (but do forget they lost to Mississippi State). Georgia Tech’s signature win was over Duke, but that was early in the season, and regardless of how good Duke is this year, it’s never a good thing to have them as your signature win.
Gambling angle: I like Ole Miss -3 (favorites are 6-2-1 the last nine Music City bowls) and since eight of 12 have played under, I like the under 57.
Valero Alamo Bowl – Dec. 30, 6:45pm EST ESPN
Oregon v. Texas
The Big 12 has owned the PAC-12 in recent history in this game which bodes well for Texas. Oregon struggled down the stretch after getting beat down (again) by Stanford, and Texas rebounded nicely after starting slow. This will also be Mack Brown’s final game at the helm for Texas, ending a stellar career that’s been on the slow decline the last couple of years. But, which Oregon team will show up? The National Championship contender, or the team that lost to Stanford and then more or less declared that they didn’t even care about the Rose Bowl (which of course led to another loss)? And, Texas upset Oregon State in this very game last year. But, the Ducks aren’t the Beavers, and this Texas team isn’t as good as last year’s version. I like Oregon in a shootout.
Gambling angle: Trends for both the spread and O/U are pretty even here, so I gotta go with my gut. Oregon will win, but not by 14. I like Texas +14 and the over 67.
National University Holiday Bowl – Dec. 30, 10:15pm EST ESPN
Arizona State v. Texas Tech
Lots of offense in this one, as the teams combine to average more than 90 passes a game. Tech stumbles in at 7-5, losing five straight in the meat of their conference schedule. Whereas, Arizona State comes in with losing to only two teams: Stanford and Notre Dame, and they easily could’ve beaten the Irish. On paper, this should be all Devils, but what scares me is ASU is 0-3 in the Holiday Bowl, and they had their sights set on the Rose Bowl this year. But, they are a much better team, and their offense will cause lots of problems for Tech’s defense which was exposed in their five game skid against Oklahoma (38), Oklahoma State (52), Kansas State (49), Baylor (63), and Texas (41). ASU should get a Holiday Bowl win finally.
Gambling angle: Interesting angle’s here: the PAC-10 doesn’t win (3-9 straight up), but favorites cover (14-3), which is quite the conundrum as ASU is a 14-point favorite. The over 70 looks good (even though it’s the second highest O/U this bowl season), and I’ll lean towards ASU winning, but Tech covering the +14.
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – Dec. 31, 12:30pm EST ESPN
Arizona v. Boston College
Two of the best running backs in the country face off in this one, and I’m sure you’ll hear the announcers say that a dozen or so times. Boston College’s claim to fame this year was only losing to Florida State by 14. UofSuck’s claim to fame was beating Oregon. They both lost to USC, though BC lost worse. That’s enough for me to pick UofSuck.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 7-3 against the spread and the four of the last five here played under. So let’s take UofSuck -7.5 and under 57 as the clock’s going to move quick in this one.
Hyundai Sun Bowl – Dec. 31, 2:00pm EST CBS
Virginia Tech v. UCLA
UCLA’s offense versus Virginia Tech’s defense will be the highlight here. As usual, Va Tech will bring a stingy defense and attempt a ball controlled offense, but they haven’t seen speed like this UCLA team has. UCLA put up 35 on USC just a couple weeks ago, and I expect them to do the same here.
Gambling angle: I’ll take UCLA -7 and the under 47.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Dec 31, 4:00pm EST ESPN
Rice v. Mississippi State
Mississippi State needed an overtime upset over rival Ole Miss to get to bowl eligibility, and they beat Arkansas in overtime the week before to even make a bowl appearance possible. That’s 0-8 in the SEC, Arkansas, in case you forgot. Rice won 10 games and blew out Marshall in the Conference USA Championship and actually played pretty competitively against A&M early in the season. This is one of the few times I’ll pick against the SEC. Go Rice!
Gambling angle: The underdogs have covered eight out of nine here and the under has hit 10 out of the last 14. So, if I had to put action on this game, Rice +7.5 and the under 50.5
Chick-fil-A Bowl – Dec. 31, 8:00pm EST ESPN
Duke v. Texas A&M
We get to see Johnny Manziel one last time before he heads to a complete failure of a career in the NFL (if RG3 can’t cut it, neither will Mr. Football). Duke’s defense kept them in games (even in the FSU game, they were in it for a couple quarters), and with plenty of rest, let’s look for that to continue. A&M probably pulls it out in the end, but I think it’ll be closer than many think.
Gambling angle: The SEC is 5-3 straight up in the last eight here, but I like Duke +12.5; and let’s take the under 73.5 (highest O/U of the bowls) as Manziel isn’t going to be able to run wild against Duke’s defense (how many just mentally pictured Bobby Hurley slapping the court?).
Well that’s it for the pre-New Year’s Games!
Until next time…
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Week 14 Recap and Week 15 Preview
Wow! Rivalry weekend certainly lived up to the hype – many games came down to the wire and Arizona State beat the snot out of UofSuck! Coaches are already starting to shuffle, and there’s renewed debate about who’s #2. I’ll expand on that – who’s #1??
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 14 Top-10 recap:
1. In my preview of the Auburn/Alabama game, I closed with this: “This one goes down to the wire, and if a bounce or two goes Auburn’s way, they pull off the upset.” The bounces certainly went their way (sans the Alabama 99-yard TD pass). I felt like Saban made some coaching mistakes, but I think part of it started right on the first drive when Alabama missed the FG wide left. It’s almost like Saban felt they were reliving the 2011 LSU game. Still, I have yet to hear a legitimate defense for trying that 56 yard FG with : 01 left. You’ve a Heisman candidate QB, have him toss it to the endzone and hope for a miracle grab or a defensive penalty. Of course, if it does go O.T., there’s no guarantee that Alabama wins (especially with how well Auburn runs the ball in a short field situation, and how bad Alabama’s kicking game was), but it still seems pretty cruel that the dynasty ends on a 109-yard missed FG return against an in-state rival in their building. Though, an Alabama-Auburn rematch in the Championship isn’t completely out of the question (more on that later).
2. In a turnover-filled Civil War, the Beavers matched the Ducks blow for blow, but in the end they just left too much time on the clock for the Oregon offense. Of course, Oregon scored the winning TD with just a 1:09 drive. Great effort by Oregon State though, and I’m glad that Mariota is coming back for Oregon. They’ll be a Top-5 preseason team once again.
3. “The Game” saw its highest scoring matchup since 1902 and Michigan went for two (probably since they wouldn’t let ‘em go for three) and the win after a three TD rally in the 4th quarter. I like the call. You were a huge underdog at home, had all the momentum, and had a chance to knock your rival out of the National Championship Game. And, Ohio State was running the ball at will against Michigan all day, not something you want to go up against in O.T. with a tired defense. But, the pass was intercepted and it looks like Ohio State will be in the BCS Championship if they can get by Michigan State.
4. South Carolina continued its dominance over Clemson, and I’m going to be really curious to watch how Clemson plays in its bowl game. Outside of the Georgia game in week #1, they played two quality teams (FSU and South Carolina) and got blown out by both of them. If Clemson played in the SEC, PAC-12, or Big-12 this year, they’re probably a 3-5 loss team.
5. The best part about the Territorial Cup was Arizona State blowing out UofSuck and grabbing home field advantage for the PAC-12 Championship against Stanford. The worst part? The PAC-12 Network must be owned by UofSuck, because it sucks as much as they do, and hardly anyone got to watch the game. Get it together PAC-12 Network!!
6. Michigan State has now won eight straight, and has a chance to knock Ohio State out of the National Championship picture. Interestingly enough, it looks like Michigan State is headed to Rose Bowl, win or lose as the Rose Bowl would likely grab them up if Ohio State does win and winds up in the National Championship. I’m still not sold on this Sparty team, but they do only have one loss (a close 17-13 contest @ Notre Dame), and they’re defense will always keep them in games (and in some cases, win games).
7. Duke held off North Carolina to win the ACC-Coastal, and with FSU playing Duke in the ACC Championship, and Ohio State playing Michigan State in the Big-12 Championship, the main assumption of there is that FSU-Ohio State will be the BCS Championship match-up. Lots has been said and written about who deserves the #2 slot and who will get stuck in the #3 slot (even though there’s lots of football left to play!). I’ll take it a step further – who deserves to be #1??
8. Let’s debate #1 – FSU is clear favorite atop the polls, but let’s look at their resume: non-con schedule (Nevada, Bethune-Cookman, Idaho, and Florda) – meh. Key wins: Clemson, Maryland, Miami – meh. Closest game: @ Boston College – meh. Overall conference (ACC): double meh. Okay, how about Ohio State: non-con schedule (Buffalo, San Diego State, Cal, Florida A&M): double meh (at least in FSU’s case, Florida is supposed to be good). Key wins: Wisconsin and Northwestern – okay, but not great. Closest games: v. Wisconsin and @ Michigan – okay. Overall conference (Big 10): meh (or even double meh, same # of ranked teams as the ACC). The edge may actually be to Ohio State to be ranked over FSU. So that settles #1 and #2, right? In the words of Corso – not so fast!
9. But here’s where it gets interesting – let’s look at these three one-loss SEC teams: Auburn, Alabama, and Missouri.
Auburn’s non-con schedule (Washington State, Arkansas State, W. Carolina, Florida Atl): meh (though at least Wazzou is going to a bowl). Key wins: Ole Miss, A&M, Georgia, Alabama – wow. Loss: @ LSU in week 4 – okay. Overall conference (SEC): still the best, seven currently ranked teams.
Alabama’s non-con schedule (Virginia Tech, Colorado State, Georgia State, Chattanooga) – meh, though props for scheduling a tough (at least when scheduled) early game and for sprinkling out the cupcakes throughout the year). Key wins: @ A&M, Ole Miss, LSU – pretty good. Loss: @ Auburn (on a 109 missed FG return) – wow.
Missouri’s non-con schedule (Murray State, Toledo, Arkansas State, Indiana) – meh. Key wins: Georgia, Ole Miss, A&M – good. Loss: South Carolina (in 2 O.T.) – wow.
10. So, to close this recap, I will suggest this: if college football had no rankings until today, this is how the teams should be ranked (based on their abilities, momentum, and overall resume): 1) Missouri, 2) Auburn, 3) Alabama, 4) Ohio State, and 5) FSU; which, ironically, is almost the exact opposite of this week’s BCS rankings. But, thankfully, the sun is setting on the BCS, and next year we can be having the argument of who gets left out of the Top-4? In this scenario, I think it would probably be Alabama based on their late loss. Even with a playoff, it’s still going to be better to lose early than late…
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Florida State (12-0) – I hope you get a shot at one of the SEC teams.
#2 Ohio State (11-0) – Just lose to Michigan State and make it easier on everyone.
#3 Missouri (11-1) – Double O.T. loss to South Carolina makes you the most impressive one loss team.
#4 Auburn (11-1) – You beat ‘Bama, so you have to be above them.
#5 Alabama (11-1) – Do you think Saban slept on Saturday night?
#6 Oklahoma State (10-1) – Fiesta Bowl bound.
#7 Baylor (10-1) – Still seeking an at-large bid.
#8 South Carolina (10-2) – Will sadly be left out of an at-large bid.
#9 Michigan State (11-1) – Roses for the Spartans.
#10 Northern Illinois (12-0) – Which bowl do you get clobbered in this year? The Fiesta, I think.
Rising Fast:
Auburn – Two miracle finishes in a row put the Tigers in position for the SEC Championship and a very good case for an appearance in the BCS Championship.
Falling Faster:
UAB – They were up by eight at halftime against So. Miss (a team that was 0-12 last year and 0-11 this year) and ended up losing by 35 and finish the year 2-10.
Heisman Watch:
Jordan Lynch, Northern Illinois – Why not? He’s a 20/20 guy (passing/rushing TDs) and three of the four that have done that in the history of college football have won the Heisman (Tebow, Newton, and Manziel). Northern Illinois is likely going to bust the BCS again, and unlike Winston, Lynch isn’t likely to get busted by the law soon.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Florida State v. Ohio State – I’m still torn on this one, as you can make a case that several of the one loss teams had a much tougher road than these two. But, until we have a playoff, two undefeated teams have largely been rewarded. Let’s pick FSU 45 Ohio State 31.
Week 15 Big Games:
Duke v. Florida State – Duke’s a great story this year, but they’re completely over-matched in this one. Even the most serious of off the field distractions won’t come into play here. FSU 52 Duke 17.
Michigan State v. Ohio State – Michigan State will need their defense to score often to have a chance in this one. But, Ohio State may have some suspensions, and teams often start slow off of a very emotional victory. If Michigan State can put some points on the board early, their defense may be able to hold off the Buckeyes. But not for long enough. Ohio State 27 Michigan State 14.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State – Bedlam decides the Big-12 Championship. Sort of. If Oklahoma State wins, they win the Conference, if OU pulls the upset then the Baylor/Texas game has some relevance. Oklahoma State always seems to struggle against their big brother, but they’ve got the better team this year, and are at home and are riding high. Oklahoma State 34 Oklahoma 27.
Stanford @ Arizona State – ASU gets Stanford at home in this rematch, but this time ASU is favored. It’s hard to figure out why, especially since Stanford had the Devil’s down 29-0 at halftime earlier this season. But ASU is peaking, and Stanford struggles on the road (losing @ Utah and @ USC and struggling @ Oregon State and even @ Army). A look at both of these teams’ match-ups with Notre Dame show just how evenly matched they are. And, if you look at last year’s PAC-12 Championship (also a re-match), Stanford struggled against UCLA even though the beat them handily the week before. I like ASU to unexpectedly get to the Rose Bowl: 34 to 31.
Week 15 Game of the Week:
Missouri v. Auburn – No surprise that the SEC Championship is once again this week’s game of the week, but it is a surprise that it is Auburn and Missouri facing off. We covered both teams earlier and how they got here and I think this match-up comes down to this – either destiny or borrowed time. Auburn could’ve easily lost their last two while Missouri has just been chugging along. Will Auburn come out flat after back-to-back weeks of emotional victories? Can Missouri’s defense shut down the Auburn running game? Everyone seems to be riding Auburn, so I’m going to do the opposite: Missouri pulls the upset and makes their case for #2: 38 to 31.
Until next time…
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 14 Top-10 recap:
1. In my preview of the Auburn/Alabama game, I closed with this: “This one goes down to the wire, and if a bounce or two goes Auburn’s way, they pull off the upset.” The bounces certainly went their way (sans the Alabama 99-yard TD pass). I felt like Saban made some coaching mistakes, but I think part of it started right on the first drive when Alabama missed the FG wide left. It’s almost like Saban felt they were reliving the 2011 LSU game. Still, I have yet to hear a legitimate defense for trying that 56 yard FG with : 01 left. You’ve a Heisman candidate QB, have him toss it to the endzone and hope for a miracle grab or a defensive penalty. Of course, if it does go O.T., there’s no guarantee that Alabama wins (especially with how well Auburn runs the ball in a short field situation, and how bad Alabama’s kicking game was), but it still seems pretty cruel that the dynasty ends on a 109-yard missed FG return against an in-state rival in their building. Though, an Alabama-Auburn rematch in the Championship isn’t completely out of the question (more on that later).
2. In a turnover-filled Civil War, the Beavers matched the Ducks blow for blow, but in the end they just left too much time on the clock for the Oregon offense. Of course, Oregon scored the winning TD with just a 1:09 drive. Great effort by Oregon State though, and I’m glad that Mariota is coming back for Oregon. They’ll be a Top-5 preseason team once again.
3. “The Game” saw its highest scoring matchup since 1902 and Michigan went for two (probably since they wouldn’t let ‘em go for three) and the win after a three TD rally in the 4th quarter. I like the call. You were a huge underdog at home, had all the momentum, and had a chance to knock your rival out of the National Championship Game. And, Ohio State was running the ball at will against Michigan all day, not something you want to go up against in O.T. with a tired defense. But, the pass was intercepted and it looks like Ohio State will be in the BCS Championship if they can get by Michigan State.
4. South Carolina continued its dominance over Clemson, and I’m going to be really curious to watch how Clemson plays in its bowl game. Outside of the Georgia game in week #1, they played two quality teams (FSU and South Carolina) and got blown out by both of them. If Clemson played in the SEC, PAC-12, or Big-12 this year, they’re probably a 3-5 loss team.
5. The best part about the Territorial Cup was Arizona State blowing out UofSuck and grabbing home field advantage for the PAC-12 Championship against Stanford. The worst part? The PAC-12 Network must be owned by UofSuck, because it sucks as much as they do, and hardly anyone got to watch the game. Get it together PAC-12 Network!!
6. Michigan State has now won eight straight, and has a chance to knock Ohio State out of the National Championship picture. Interestingly enough, it looks like Michigan State is headed to Rose Bowl, win or lose as the Rose Bowl would likely grab them up if Ohio State does win and winds up in the National Championship. I’m still not sold on this Sparty team, but they do only have one loss (a close 17-13 contest @ Notre Dame), and they’re defense will always keep them in games (and in some cases, win games).
7. Duke held off North Carolina to win the ACC-Coastal, and with FSU playing Duke in the ACC Championship, and Ohio State playing Michigan State in the Big-12 Championship, the main assumption of there is that FSU-Ohio State will be the BCS Championship match-up. Lots has been said and written about who deserves the #2 slot and who will get stuck in the #3 slot (even though there’s lots of football left to play!). I’ll take it a step further – who deserves to be #1??
8. Let’s debate #1 – FSU is clear favorite atop the polls, but let’s look at their resume: non-con schedule (Nevada, Bethune-Cookman, Idaho, and Florda) – meh. Key wins: Clemson, Maryland, Miami – meh. Closest game: @ Boston College – meh. Overall conference (ACC): double meh. Okay, how about Ohio State: non-con schedule (Buffalo, San Diego State, Cal, Florida A&M): double meh (at least in FSU’s case, Florida is supposed to be good). Key wins: Wisconsin and Northwestern – okay, but not great. Closest games: v. Wisconsin and @ Michigan – okay. Overall conference (Big 10): meh (or even double meh, same # of ranked teams as the ACC). The edge may actually be to Ohio State to be ranked over FSU. So that settles #1 and #2, right? In the words of Corso – not so fast!
9. But here’s where it gets interesting – let’s look at these three one-loss SEC teams: Auburn, Alabama, and Missouri.
Auburn’s non-con schedule (Washington State, Arkansas State, W. Carolina, Florida Atl): meh (though at least Wazzou is going to a bowl). Key wins: Ole Miss, A&M, Georgia, Alabama – wow. Loss: @ LSU in week 4 – okay. Overall conference (SEC): still the best, seven currently ranked teams.
Alabama’s non-con schedule (Virginia Tech, Colorado State, Georgia State, Chattanooga) – meh, though props for scheduling a tough (at least when scheduled) early game and for sprinkling out the cupcakes throughout the year). Key wins: @ A&M, Ole Miss, LSU – pretty good. Loss: @ Auburn (on a 109 missed FG return) – wow.
Missouri’s non-con schedule (Murray State, Toledo, Arkansas State, Indiana) – meh. Key wins: Georgia, Ole Miss, A&M – good. Loss: South Carolina (in 2 O.T.) – wow.
10. So, to close this recap, I will suggest this: if college football had no rankings until today, this is how the teams should be ranked (based on their abilities, momentum, and overall resume): 1) Missouri, 2) Auburn, 3) Alabama, 4) Ohio State, and 5) FSU; which, ironically, is almost the exact opposite of this week’s BCS rankings. But, thankfully, the sun is setting on the BCS, and next year we can be having the argument of who gets left out of the Top-4? In this scenario, I think it would probably be Alabama based on their late loss. Even with a playoff, it’s still going to be better to lose early than late…
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Florida State (12-0) – I hope you get a shot at one of the SEC teams.
#2 Ohio State (11-0) – Just lose to Michigan State and make it easier on everyone.
#3 Missouri (11-1) – Double O.T. loss to South Carolina makes you the most impressive one loss team.
#4 Auburn (11-1) – You beat ‘Bama, so you have to be above them.
#5 Alabama (11-1) – Do you think Saban slept on Saturday night?
#6 Oklahoma State (10-1) – Fiesta Bowl bound.
#7 Baylor (10-1) – Still seeking an at-large bid.
#8 South Carolina (10-2) – Will sadly be left out of an at-large bid.
#9 Michigan State (11-1) – Roses for the Spartans.
#10 Northern Illinois (12-0) – Which bowl do you get clobbered in this year? The Fiesta, I think.
Rising Fast:
Auburn – Two miracle finishes in a row put the Tigers in position for the SEC Championship and a very good case for an appearance in the BCS Championship.
Falling Faster:
UAB – They were up by eight at halftime against So. Miss (a team that was 0-12 last year and 0-11 this year) and ended up losing by 35 and finish the year 2-10.
Heisman Watch:
Jordan Lynch, Northern Illinois – Why not? He’s a 20/20 guy (passing/rushing TDs) and three of the four that have done that in the history of college football have won the Heisman (Tebow, Newton, and Manziel). Northern Illinois is likely going to bust the BCS again, and unlike Winston, Lynch isn’t likely to get busted by the law soon.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Florida State v. Ohio State – I’m still torn on this one, as you can make a case that several of the one loss teams had a much tougher road than these two. But, until we have a playoff, two undefeated teams have largely been rewarded. Let’s pick FSU 45 Ohio State 31.
Week 15 Big Games:
Duke v. Florida State – Duke’s a great story this year, but they’re completely over-matched in this one. Even the most serious of off the field distractions won’t come into play here. FSU 52 Duke 17.
Michigan State v. Ohio State – Michigan State will need their defense to score often to have a chance in this one. But, Ohio State may have some suspensions, and teams often start slow off of a very emotional victory. If Michigan State can put some points on the board early, their defense may be able to hold off the Buckeyes. But not for long enough. Ohio State 27 Michigan State 14.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State – Bedlam decides the Big-12 Championship. Sort of. If Oklahoma State wins, they win the Conference, if OU pulls the upset then the Baylor/Texas game has some relevance. Oklahoma State always seems to struggle against their big brother, but they’ve got the better team this year, and are at home and are riding high. Oklahoma State 34 Oklahoma 27.
Stanford @ Arizona State – ASU gets Stanford at home in this rematch, but this time ASU is favored. It’s hard to figure out why, especially since Stanford had the Devil’s down 29-0 at halftime earlier this season. But ASU is peaking, and Stanford struggles on the road (losing @ Utah and @ USC and struggling @ Oregon State and even @ Army). A look at both of these teams’ match-ups with Notre Dame show just how evenly matched they are. And, if you look at last year’s PAC-12 Championship (also a re-match), Stanford struggled against UCLA even though the beat them handily the week before. I like ASU to unexpectedly get to the Rose Bowl: 34 to 31.
Week 15 Game of the Week:
Missouri v. Auburn – No surprise that the SEC Championship is once again this week’s game of the week, but it is a surprise that it is Auburn and Missouri facing off. We covered both teams earlier and how they got here and I think this match-up comes down to this – either destiny or borrowed time. Auburn could’ve easily lost their last two while Missouri has just been chugging along. Will Auburn come out flat after back-to-back weeks of emotional victories? Can Missouri’s defense shut down the Auburn running game? Everyone seems to be riding Auburn, so I’m going to do the opposite: Missouri pulls the upset and makes their case for #2: 38 to 31.
Until next time…
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)