I must admit, the beginning of college football season is always bittersweet for me. Sure, it means my Saturdays (and Thursdays) are tied up for hours on end with endless entertainment and intrigue, but it also means summer is over and with it brings on cold and dreary days, darkness driving to and from work, new episodes of “Gold Rush,” and the other signs of the upcoming winter. But, I will admit, as giddy as I get in February and March when CBS starts airing the Master’s teasers (admit it, you just heard Jim Nantz say “A tradition like no other, the Masters…..on CBS”), I have been even more excited seeing the “College Football returns August 29th” teasers on ESPN.
So, with only two days to go until the 2013-2014 kick-off, the Autumn Wind is back for its 7th season. In this preseason edition, I’ll list my top things to watch for this year; I’ll offer up my games of the week; and my pre-season Top-10, why they’ll win it, and why they won’t. Of course BCS title and Heisman trophy predictions will follow, and in typical Wind fashion, will change weekly until I get it right. For year 7 of the Autumn Wind, let’s look at the top 7 things to watch for this season.
1. All the talk of the off-season (well, not involving fake girlfriends and autographs, at least) has been if Alabama can three-peat. I don’t think so, and here are six reasons why: 1) Let’s not forget Alabama needed help the last two years to even get to the title game. Sure, once in the title game they’ve been dominant, but they were on the outside looking in going into the final weeks of the season each of the last two years. 2) Huge losses on both the offensive and defensive lines; you don’t just replace three All-American’s off the offensive line. You see it quite a bit in college football – you need to be superior on both lines to compete for the title. 3) There’s a sense of complacency in Tuscaloosa; it’s just expected that Alabama is gonna win it all. That spells trouble, especially when…4) There could be three (or more) teams (Ohio State, Oregon, Louisville) that finish undefeated and I don’t think one of those will be from the SEC; a one-loss SEC team isn’t going to the title this year. 5) Even if Alabama gets to the SEC Championship, I’m not sure they get by South Carolina; or Florida; or Georgia. And finally, 6) it’s extremely tough (i.e. unpossible) to win three in a row and four outta five in college football. So, this year is lining up to be the first in seven years without a SEC team winning the BCS. For all these reasons, I’m one of the few that doesn’t have Alabama #1. They’ll be in the discussion for sure; especially with a relatively easy schedule (only A&M and LSU are in the preseason Top-25; and both of those come after a bye week).
2. This is the year of the PAC-12; I’m calling it now. The winner of the November 7th Oregon @ Stanford game will finish undefeated and wind up in the BCS championship game. If you haven’t watched these teams play the last couple of years, you’re missing out. Oregon has finished in the top-5 the last three seasons (12 wins a year); been to four straight BCS games (something no other school can claim right now); they’re schedule is favorable with non-con games against Virginia and Tennessee; and they have a bye the weekend before the Thursday night game @ Stanford. Stanford’s been to three straight BCS games and has won 11+ games three years a row for the first time in school history. They’re big on both lines, and their defense that led the nation in sacks per game returns nine starters. Their only weakness is at running back (seriously, how do you replace the school’s all-time leading rusher), but their running-back-by-committee will work – especially when they have Barry Sanders Jr. starting to get some time. There is a trap game on the schedule though, @ Oregon State sandwiched in between the games against UCLA and Oregon; which is why I like Oregon to win the PAC-12 and go to the BCS Championship.
3. Brian Kelly said before the BCS Championship last year that Notre Dame was “a year away” – almost a prophet-like prediction that the Tide were gonna roll the Irish. Even after losing T’eo, the defense is stacked with Louis Nix and Stephon Tuitt upfront, three returning linebackers including Prince Shembo, and three returners in the secondary. The problem is their offense. They lost their top two running backs and their best tight end, and of course don’t have their planned QB-of-the-future who was booted for academic reasons; or something. Last year, seven of their wins came in games where they scored 22 or fewer points. With key losses at QB, RB, and TE, the defense is gonna have to be as good, or better, than last year to keep the Irish in games. And they’ve a brutal four game stretch with Michigan State, Oklahoma, Arizona State, and USC. Not to mention road games against Michigan and Stanford early and late in the year. 9-3 would be an incredible success, but I’m guessing it’ll be closer to 7-5 (then again, I predicted 6-6 last year).
4. The off season drama revolving around Johnny Manziel has been tough to watch. Between the bar fights, the meltdowns, the tweets, and the autograph scandal; it’s a humble reminder that these athletes are just kids. The compensation issue has to be resolved. I’m tired of the old argument that they’re getting a full ride scholarship and should be happy with just that. The money involved in college football is mind boggling. ESPN has reportedly paid 7.3 billion dollars just for the TV rights for the new playoff system. Everyone is profiting off of these kids, except for the kids themselves (well, allegedly, at least). Much like campaign finance reform, I don’t care about all of the details, but I just want something that is 100% transparent. If Nike is gonna pay the kids from Oregon a little extra cash for signing up, I wanna know about it. Put a system in place where the kids can get a miniscule slice of the pie that they’re brining to their schools. But make it above board and accountable. Rant over.
5. Conference predictions: In the Big East…errrrr….. American Athletic Conference, I’ve got Louisville running away with it, though Cincy is gonna surprise some folks in Tuberville’s first year with the Bearcats. The ACC’s gonna come down to Florida State and Clemson, and I’m giving the nod to Clemson. The Big 10 is going to be all about Ohio State in the Leaders Division and a race between Michigan, Nebraska, and Northwestern in the Legends Division (and thank God this is the last year of those two stupid division names). In the Big 12 I like Oklahoma State – though Texas returns 19 starters. The PAC-12 is all about Oregon and Stanford in the North and UCLA and ASU in the South (nod to Oregon). The SEC is going to be Alabama in West and South Carolina in the East. Oh, and the schedule maker at Ole Miss should be out of a job – other than the home game against Southeastern Missouri State on September 7th, their schedule looks like this to open the season: @ Vandy, @ Texas, @ Alabama, @ Auburn. They’re not home again until October 12th and 19th, and then they get A&M and LSU. Scheduling – you’re doing it wrong…
6. Here’s my BCS Bowl Predictions - Rose Bowl: Michigan v. Stanford; Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State v. Boise State; Sugar Bowl: South Carolina v. Texas; Orange Bowl: Clemson v. Louisville; and BCS Championship: Oregon v. Ohio State
7. And lastly, after this season, we say goodbye to the BCS. In the end, it did what it was supposed to do – pit the #1 versus #2 teams for the last game of the year. Of course there have been conspiracies and controversies, but in short, don’t lose to Iowa State, Stanford, or Baylor (looking at you Oklahoma State, Oregon, and Kansas State), and then you won’t have any reason to complain. The plus-1 system isn’t perfect, but get used to it. We’re stuck with it until at least 2025. I can’t wait until the top four teams in the polls aren’t the teams selected to the four team playoff by the secret committee. Let the complaining begin!
Games of the Week
Week 1: Georgia @ Clemson – Sorry Alabama and Virginia Tech (well, mostly Va. Tech), Georgia @ Clemson has all sorts of national implications; especially for an early non-conference game. We all know Clemson appears to be overhyped every year, and I want Georgia to win (just because I have this fantasy about both Georgia and Florida being undefeated for the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party). Alternate game: LSU v. TCU – tough opener for Miles and Co. as TCU tries to show A&M they’re the best team in Texas.
Week 2: South Carolina @ Georgia – For those that want a playoff, remember that college football is basically 15 weeks of playoffs. Thankfully for Georgia it’s not single elimination. Can the SEC East really be decided in week 2? Alternate game: Notre Dame @ Michigan – the last in this series (at least for the time being) at the Big House. The last three between these rivals have been chaos – Michigan blowing a 21-7 lead in 2010 only to score in the final minute to win it; Notre Dame blowing 24-7 4th quarter lead, ending with three lead changes in the final two minutes in 2011; and of course the ugliness of the 2012 game in which we realized that Notre Dame’s defense was legit. I’ll miss this series; good thing there’s one more in 2014 @ Notre Dame. Anton and I need to grab a Ted’s hot dog and find a TV, just like we did in ’94.
Week 3: Alabama @ Texas A&M – Off season distractions at A&M and a coaching staff at ‘Bama that’s been scheming for this one since last year. Saban smells blood in the water, but this one’s at College Station.
Week 4: Michigan State @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame’s defense may need to score at least twice for the Irish to have shot in this one.
Week 5: LSU @ Georgia – Where will Georgia be after a brutal schedule to open the season? Will LSU have their offense figured out?
Week 6: Arizona State v. Notre Dame – If you think ND has talent on the defensive line, here’s a chance for the country to finally see Will Sutton; he’s likely gonna be the first defensive tackle selected in the next NFL draft.
Week 7: Florida @ LSU – Just your run of the mill top-10 midseason matchup in the SEC. Alternate game: Oklahoma v. Texas – Red River Rivalry? Is it really a rivalry if Oklahoma keeps winning by six TDs every year?
Week 8: Florida State @ Clemson – Winner controls the ACC and still has an outside shot at the BCS Championship.
Week 9: Tennessee @ Alabama – Just for you Greg and Geno.
Week 10: Georgia v. Florida – One of these years the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is gonna be between two undefeated teams. Sadly, I don’t think this is the year.
Week 11: Oregon @ Stanford (Thursday) – In 2011, Oregon spoiled Stanford’s bid for a National Championship, in 2012, Stanford returned the favor – both of those were road games for the winner; can Oregon do it again? Alternate Game: LSU @ Alabama – the last three (not counting the National Championship blowout) in this series have been decided by 10 points total and similar to Oregon/Stanford, the road team has won the last two. I’d be happy if these two games were National Championship semi-finals.
Week 12: Florida @ South Carolina – Winner claims the SEC East (unless Georgia is still relevant after their brutal early season schedule)
Week 13: Texas A&M @ LSU – Could have some relevance in the SEC West, but also in the race for the Championship.
Week 14: Notre Dame @ Stanford – I wanna see Stanford have a first goal at the three with a chance to win, cuz I know Shaw will still call four straight running plays. The battle in the trenches will be fun to watch. The rest of Notre Dame’s offense, not so much.
Week 15: Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State – Bedlam. Could decide the winner of the Big 12. O/U on “Belldozer” references by Mussberger: 12.5.
The Pre-Season Top-10
#1 Oregon (0-0) – What’s not to love (well other than the uniforms – several of which the NCAA made illegal for this year)? Speed, scoring, improved defense, and seamless transitions from Bellotti to Kelly to Helfrich over the last five years. Hard to believe Mariota is a redshirt sophomore and De’Anthony Thomas is a junior.
#2 Ohio State (0-0) – A Heisman trophy contender at QB, a coach who has won a National Championship in his second year in the past, actually eligible for a bowl this year, and playing in the crappy Big 10? Uh oh. Looks like Ohio State will play in its record 10th BCS bowl game, and it’ll probably the Championship game.
#3 South Carolina (0-0) – If you can take care of business in week 2 @ Georgia, you shouldn’t see a challenge until deep into November when you get both Florida and Clemson at home.
#4 Stanford (0-0) – Everyone thought Stanford was done when Luck and Harbaugh left two and three years ago. Everyone was wrong.
#5 Alabama (0-0) – One of the easiest schedules out there; with only two preseason top-25 teams on the schedule (A&M and LSU), and you get both of them after a bye week. The scheduling gods smiled on Alabama this year. The defense will be good as ever, but will McCarron have any protection?
#6 Louisville (0-0) – Even though your conference sucks, you’re a legit team that returns 16 starters. Just ask Florida how good you are.
#7 Georgia (0-0) – Clemson, South Carolina, and LSU as three of your first four opponents? I really feel sorry for North Texas when you play them on September 21st. If you win all three of those against top-12 teams, the dude who voted you #1 in the AP preseason poll may be on to something.
#8 Oklahoma State (0-0) – Favorites in the Big 12. The Big 12 ain’t great this year, but it’s deep. Should be interesting to see what Oklahoma, Texas, and TCU have to say about this.
#9 Clemson (0-0) – It seems like every year we get the “this is Clemson’s year.” And every year they choke it away. Is this finally the year?
#10 Florida (0-0) – You looked really bad against Louisville in the Sugar Bowl as a two TD favorite. But, don’t sleep on the Gators going into this season.
Heisman Watch:
Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina – Yes, no defensive player has won the Heisman since 1997, although Manti T’eo was good for the imagination last year; wait, what? They’re talking that this is the deepest QB crew since the famous ’82 class, and that’s got the making of splitting the vote. If Clowney matches (or exceeds) what he did last year, and South Carolina lives up to the hype, he’ll be the winner.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – A fitting end to the BCS would be to not have an SEC win it; let alone be in the game. With some top teams having a relatively easy schedule, we could wind up with 3-4 undefeated teams, which won’t bode well for a one-loss SEC school. Oregon finally gets a break and brings the title to Eugene.
Week 1 Big Games:
Alabama v. Virginia Tech – Alabama comes in as a huge favorite against Virginia Tech. Tech is a really young team attempting to develop a new offense. That won’t bode well against the veteran Alabama defense, led by All Universe linebacker C.J. Mosely. More of the same. Alabama scores on their first possession, and the defense carries them the rest of the way. Alabama 31 Virginia Tech 10.
TCU v. LSU – Two solid defenses will steal the show here with two offenses that struggled a year ago. I said earlier that the Big 12 isn’t great this year, but boy how that would change in an instant if TCU can pull the upset on a sorta neutral field in Texas. TCU will keep it close, but LSU will pull it out with a late FG: 20 to 17.
Week 1 Game of the Week:
Georgia @ Clemson – Why do we need a playoff system when you have a week 1 matchup like this? Expectations are at record highs for both Georgia and Clemson, with both hoping to be in the National Championship picture at the end of the year. Georgia returns nine on offense, the same offense that put up 28 on Alabama in the SEC Championship last year. Clemson was sixth best in the nation last year in points, putting up ~41/game. Both defenses are young. There’s gonna be some fireworks in this one! I like Georgia 45 to 31.
Until next time…
