Is this really year 6 of the Autumn Wind???? Boy how time flies. Ironically, the Autumn Wind started with an e-mail rant to family and friends about how crappy Notre Dame was. Sad to say, not much has changed.
Lots of things happened during this off-season, some good (a playoff is coming, well, a sorta playoff), some bad (Penn State, let’s just leave it at that), and some just bizarre (conference realignment jockeying continues; and nothing says Big 12 football like West Virginia!). But, here we are just a few days away from the 2012-2013 season, and some things haven’t changed. The SEC is stacked once again, with at least five teams in the running for not only a conference championship, but the national championship. Every other conference is playing for the final spot in the title game, as I don’t see any way that the SEC Champion won’t finish #1 or #2 in what is the final two years of this BCS failure.
In this preseason edition, I’ll list my Top-5 things to watch for this year; I’ll offer up my games of the week for each week of the season; and my pre-season Top-10, why they’ll win it, and why they won’t. Of course BCS title and Heisman trophy predictions will follow, and in typical Wind fashion, will change weekly until I get it right (I have, after all, picked the National Championship winner correctly the past five years).
Top-5 Things to Watch for This Season
1) The Big East is crumbling, and we get to watch it over the next couple of years as conference realignment really takes a toll on the Big East. Yet, they still have an automatic BCS bid for the next two years. How pissed off are two to three SEC teams, the loser of Oregon/USC, and a Big 12 and/or Big 10 team gonna be with a four loss Big East team is sitting in the Orange Bowl? To butcher a quote from the great movie “Major League:”
Random Big East player “I play for the Big East.”
Rest of the country: “I didn’t know they still had a conference.”
Random player: “Yup, we have uniforms and everything, it’s really great.”
Then again, last time we saw a Big East team in the Orange Bowl, it was West Virginia dropping 70 on Clemson back in January (not that Clemson deserved to be there either).
2) The only thing worse than Notre Dame’s schedule is their new uniforms. That noise you heard was Knute rolling over. Is it too late to add Alabama or LSU to ND’s schedule? They are after all playing @ Michigan State, @ Oklahoma, and @ USC; all three of which are in the running to win their conferences. Add in Michigan, Stanford, BYU, and a likely slip up against someone else, and Notre Dame will be lucky to go 6-6 this year.
3) Lots of familiar faces in new places this year: Terry Bowden at Akron (Akron’s equal with Auburn, right?), Rich Rod at Arizona (if it didn’t work at Michigan, it’s certainly not gonna work for UofSuck – which is fine by me), Todd Graham at Arizona State (did he really say at the pep rally that they’d be in the hunt for a national title?), Norm Chow to Hawaii (that offense could be scary good), Charlie Weis to Kansas (thought I’m sure he’s still being paid millions by Notre Dame), Bob Davie to New Mexico (wait, is he still being paid by Notre Dame too?), Jim More to UCLA (no, not “Playoffs??!?!?!!? Don’t talk about playoffs!!!!” Jim Mora; his kid), Mike Leach to Washington State (I wonder if the players are getting keys made so they can break of out of equipment closets) and of course Urban Meyer to bowl-ineligible Ohio State (making the Michigan game their bowl game).
4) Do you remember “Oh Brother, Where Art Though” when Tommy said he sold his soul to the Devil “to play this here guitar?” Well, Lame Kiffen sold his soul to the Devil to coach this USC team. I don’t know what the NCAA was thinking. Petey Carroll cheated his ass off for years and finally took off right before the Heat caught up to him (with the excuse of “it was time to move on to something different” which really means “I finally got my hand caught in the cookie jar.”). The punishment? No bowl games for a couple years, but also no restrictions in recruiting for two years. So now, two years later when scholarship restrictions finally take place, Kiffen’s got a stacked bowl eligible team, ranked #1 in the AP, with a relatively easy schedule. Thankfully, Kiffen has always shown to suck as coach, so I look for USC to lose to Oregon and maybe Stanford. Karma, USC. It’s finally gonna get you.
5) There’s been some talk that the four team “playoff” compromise is partially the result of the Alabama-LSU matchup in January that was one of the lowest rated championship games of all time. If it did help move the playoff discussion along, great. But there’s nothing stopping that from happening again in the new system (a rematch for the title). And now, starting in 2014, we’re stuck with the four team playoff format until 2025, and a secret committee that picks the four teams. Maybe we should just go back to what bowl games were in the first place? A bunch of pomp and circumstance that resulted in the AP picking a champion. At least then we knew what we had, and didn’t try to pretend that this pile of dog crap was a rose.
Predicted Games of the Week
Week 1 – Michigan v. Alabama: Two top-10 ten teams; neutral site; storied powers; what’s not to love?
Week 2 – Wisconsin @ Oregon State: Week 2 is pretty weak overall, but if Wisconsin is going to win the Big 10, they have to be able to win in a tough place like Corvallis; even though the Beavers suck this year.
Week 3 – Alabama @ Arkansas: Arkansas had a legit claim to be #3 last year, with their only loses to LSU and Alabama. The strange off season tale of coach Bobby Petrino will hurt, but this is the Hogs best bet to win the SEC; and they have both Alabama and LSU at home.
Week 4 – Kansas State @ Oklahoma: Many people see this as the default Big 12 championship game. It will be a good game; the best of week 4; but the Big 12 title runs through Morgantown (see below).
Week 5 – Wisconsin @ Nebraska: Winning at Corvallis is one thing; winning in Lincoln is another. Well, it used to be.
Week 6 – Georgia @ South Carolina: Everyone seems to be focused on LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas. Don’t count out the winner of this game; as they may have a shot at #1 or #2.
Week 7 – South Carolina @ LSU: Can South Carolina actually win back-to-back games against Georgia and LSU? Hell, it’s the SEC; most back-to-back games are against NFC North quality opponents.
Week 8 – Michigan State @ Michigan: Sparty tries to spoil what could be a magical season for Michigan. Oh, and I think there’s some other game this weekend – third weekend of October or something or other.
Week 9 – Michigan @ Nebraska: If Michigan survives Sparty, they’ll need a big road win in Lincoln to stay alive in the Big 10 Legends Division. Or is it Leaders? Or Losers. Ah, who cares.
Week 10 – Oregon @ USC; Alabama @ LSU: This could very well be the top four teams in the country playing each other by the time week 10 rolls around.
Week 11 – Arkansas @ South Carolina: Will either team still be in the hunt at this point?
Week 12 – Oklahoma @ West Virginia: Mark it down; winner of this wins the Big 12. Like I said, the Big 12 goes through Morgantown.
Week 13 – LSU @ Arkansas, Arizona State @ Arizona, Notre Dame @ USC, Michigan @ Ohio State, Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma, Oregon @ Oregon State, Auburn @ Alabama, Georgia Tech @ Georgia, Florida @ Florida State, South Carolina @ Clemson, TCU @ Texas: No point to try and pick a top game for this weekend. Can I watch them all, please?
Week 14 – Oklahoma @ TCU: Oklahoma may still need this game for a BCS birth, and TCU may need this game to prove they belong in the Big 12.
The Pre-Season Top-10
#1 Alabama (0-0) – I don’t see a reason why Alabama won’t repeat. The best offensive line in the nation, a QB who knows how to manage a game, an incredible defense (though not as good as last year’s version), and probably the best game preparation coach we’ve seen in a long while, Nick Saban. The reason they might not? The schedule: versus Michigan and @ Arkansas early; and then the game of year @ LSU on November 3rd. But if anyone can go into Baton Rouge and win at night, it’s Alabama. And, even a loss to LSU or Arkansas may not prevent a return to the title game. We know this much – the winner of the SEC Championship will be in the title game.
#2 Oregon (0-0) – Unlike Alabama, Oregon has eight weeks to get firing on all cylinders before their first real test: November 3rd at USC. I think this is the year for Oregon. Even if they lose @ USC, I think they have a decent shot at beating them in the PAC-12 Championship. Conversely, if they beat USC on November 3rd, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lose the re-match. Both teams are good enough that I don’t see a way either can beat each other twice.
#3 LSU (0-0) – No honey badger, no problem, right? Well, I’m not so sure. Granted, Les Miles handles distractions better than most, but let’s not forget how exposed LSU’s offense was in both matchups with Alabama last year. The schedule is about as favorable as can be, with South Carolina and Alabama at home. They do have to travel to Florida and Arkansas, but circle October 20th. Smack dab between home games against South Carolina and Alabama is a road trip to College Station to take on Texas A&M for the first time in SEC play. If that doesn’t scream “TRAP!!!!” I don’t know what does.
#4 USC (0-0) – The AP has the Trojans #1, which is really generous. Though, outside of Oregon, the PAC-12 is pretty weak this year. They do have road trips to Stanford and Washington, so if there’s a slip-up outside of the Oregon game, those are the ones to watch. Don’t be surprised if Barkley wins the Heisman and is a top two pick in the NFL draft.
#5 Oklahoma (0-0) – Landry Jones will put up big numbers, we know that. But, will this version of Oklahoma play some defense? The get Kansas State out of the way early, which should help the Sooners, and I still can’t believe that the Big 12 Title may run through Morgantown, West Virginia this year, but that’s what it’s looking like. October 17th, Oklahoma @ West Virginia – sponsored of course, by Dr. Pepper.
#6 Florida State (0-0) – Most have Florida State winning the ACC, which isn’t really a surprise. They return eight starters on offense, and eight from a defense that was second in the nation against the run and only gave up ~15 a game. They have Clemson and Florida at home; but there toughest game (no surprise) will be Thursday November 8th @ Virginia Tech. No one beats Va. Tech at home, at night, on Thursday.
#7 Wisconsin (0-0) – Many think the Big 10 title runs through the state of Michigan this year, but don’t count out the Badgers. The Leaders sub-conference is horrible, with the exception of Wisconsin, they don’t play Michigan, and have Michigan State at home. A third straight Rose Bowl appearance is likely.
#8 West Virginia (0-0) – How again does a team from the sticks in West Virginy join the Big 12 and get Oklahoma, Kansas State, and TCU at home? Geno Smith and company will light up the scoreboard, but then again so will the opposing team’s offense. I don’t know if they’ll have a chance to win the Big 12, but having Oklahoma at home will help.
#9 Michigan (0-0) – Who was the fool that voted for Michigan at #1 in the AP poll? Did Tim Jehn get a vote that I don’t know about? Michigan is glad the Rich Rod experiment is long in their rearview mirror, though expectations may be too high for Brady Hoke’s second season. We’ll know right away when they take on Alabama in week 1.
#10 Georgia (0-0) – If Georgia’s gonna make a run, this is the year. They lucked out with the schedule, probably the easiest of any SEC team. No Alabama, LSU, or Arkansas; they get South Carolina after a bye week, and get Florida at the always entertain World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. But, they have to survive a road trip to new SEC member Missouri in week 2.
Heisman Watch:
Matt Barkley, USC – Size, strength, hype, and an easy schedule make Barkley the preseason pick for the Heisman. He may even get some of the “Andrew Luck deserved it the last two years so I’m gonna vote for a PAC-12 guy.” I wonder if he’ll have to give this trophy back in a few years. Being a Heisman winner from USC isn’t always a good thing. Just ask O.J. Simpson and Reggie Bush.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Alabama v. Oregon – Ducks versus Elephants. Ducks fly fast, elephants rumble along. Very fitting for these two teams. Does the SEC win yet another BCS Championship? It looks like it.
Week 1 Big Games:
Boise State @ Michigan State – Can the Broncos continue to take on the big boys and beat ‘em on the road? Not without Kellen Moore and company. It was a fun ride the last several years, Boise; knocking off all those big boys at neutral fields; but it ends this year. Michigan State 38 Boise State 27
Clemson v. Auburn – Clemson’s ranked, Auburn isn’t. After this one, Auburn will be, and Clemson won’t. Auburn 34 Clemson 31
Week 1 Game of the Week:
Alabama v. Michigan – Saban’s been prepping for this game since the day after last year’s championship game. While on paper this looks to be a very exciting match up, let’s just all remember what SEC elite teams do to the Big 10. Alabama 30 Michigan 17
Until next time…
