Bowl Preview Edition - Part II

And here’s part duex of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview Edition! Enjoy!

Ticket City Bowl – Jan. 2, 2:00pm ESPNU

Houston v. Penn State.

The first New Year’s game of the year, and each team is reeling. Penn State was passed over by three other bowls because of the scandals, and Houston was one win from a BCS game; not to mention each team is playing with an interim coach. Houston led the country in both scoring and passing yards, but didn’t play anywhere near a defense like they’ll see in this one. As it has been all year: can Penn State score enough to win? Houston is averaging 30 more a game than Penn State. That should be enough to get the Cougars a victory.

Gambling angle: This is the 2^nd Ticket City Bowl, with the underdog covering last year, and the over hitting. Despite Houston averaging 50/game, the over/under is only at 57, a testament to Penn State’s defense. Penn State is just too distracted, so let’s take Houston -5.5 and the over 57.

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl – Jan. 2, 1:00pm ESPN2

Florida v. Ohio State

Hey, I have a clever name for this bowl: the Urban Meyer bowl! What? That’s already been used? Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve heard about this game as the matchup of Meyer’s former and future teams. On paper, these teams are very similar: both struggled down the stretch after good starts, and each averaged 25/game and gave up 21/game. Ohio State is dealing with new NCAA sanctions, and Florida is playing in their own backyard. That should be enough to give the Gators a victory by a FG.

Gambling angle: As usual, the trend is for underdogs to cover here, and I like Florida +2, and the over 44 as both teams will pull out all of the tricks.

Outback Bowl – Jan. 2, 1:00pm ABC

Georgia v. Michigan State

This year’s Outback Bowl matches two 10-3 teams who also lost their respective conference championship games. Michigan State hasn’t won a bowl game in 10 years, and Georgia’s 10-game winning streak was snapped by LSU in the SEC Championship. There is some history here, as Georgia beat Michigan State in the 2009 Capital One bowl. As with many bowl games, this matches Gerogia’s offense (3^rd in the SEC) versus Michigan State’s defense (5^th in the country). But, let’s not forget that Georgia is also a top-5 defense. Look for a close, exciting, but scoring game, in what could’ve been two BCS teams. I like Georgia, down to the wire, to win in a close one. 

Gambling angle: The Big-10 has covered six of the last nine Outback bowls, and three of the last five have played under. Let’s try and keep that going: Michigan State +3.5 and the under 50.5Even though I like Florida to win; I think Penn State covers the -6. And I look for the under 48 here also.

Capital One Bowl – Jan. 2, 1:00pm ESPN

South Carolina v. Nebraska

This match-up is simple. If South Carolina stops Burkhead and forces Martinez to pass, they win. And, they should have no problem doing that, as the 4^th best defense in the country (even while playing in the brutal SEC). Nebraska’s only chance is if the Blackshirts show up, but there’s no Suh or Crick this time. South Carolina wins big.

Gambling angle: While underdogs here are 4-2-1 against the spread in the last seven here, I have to take South Carolina -2. Four of the last six have played under, and that seems appropriate with these defenses, so I like the under 47.

Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO – Jan. 2, 5:00pm ESPN

Oregon v. Wisconsin

Two of the most prolific offenses in the country meet up in Pasadena. Wisconsin was outplayed by TCU last year here, and Oregon hasn’t won a Rose Bowl since 1917. Each team scores ~45+/game, and each has a deceptively steady defense that compliments their offense. LaMichael James led the country in rushing yards per game for the Ducks, and Monte Ball of Wisconsin has a chance to tie or break Barry Sanders’ single season TD record. Wisconsin couldn’t match TCU in the trenches last year, and they won’t be able to match Oregon’s speed this year. Oregon finally gets a BCS bowl win!

Gambling angle: Favorites tend to do well in Pasadena, and I like Oregon at -6 in a shootout. The over is a ridiculous 72, and as much as I want to take the over, I can’t. I’ll take the under as I remember what both Wisconsin and Oregon did last year in bowl games (each scored 19 in loses to TCU and Auburn).

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl – Glendale, AZ Jan. 2, 8:30pm ESPN

Oklahoma State v. Stanford

While the Rose Bowl features the 3^rd and 4^th scoring offenses in the country, the Fiesta Bowl features the 2^nd and 6^th scoring offenses, so look for lots of points. If you’ve followed ‘The Wind’ all year, you know how much I like these two teams this year. I’m really looking forward to watching this game. Stanford’s only blemishes the last two years have been against Oregon, and Oklahoma State silenced the critics by destroying the Sooners to end the season. As much as I’ve liked Stanford, I’m also a realist. They haven’t beaten anyone other than USC this year, and that was at home, and in triple O.T. Stanford and Andrew Luck run a very effective and efficient pro-style offense, but it’s not conducive to hanging with a spread style offense like Oklahoma State runs. And, like I’ve been saying all year: this year’s Oklahoma State team is special!  

Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered three of the last four Fiesta Bowls and four of the last seven have played under the total. While I do like Oklahoma State to win, Stanford will keep it close, so let’s look to Stanford +3.5; and much like the Rose Bowl, while there will be lots of points scored, I can’t see the over 74 hitting, so look to the under.

Allstate Sugar Bowl – Jan. 3, 8:30pm ESPN

Virginia Tech v. Michigan

A BCS Game with the #13 and #17 teams in the country? Okay then. As I’ve said before, we don’t know how good Va. Tech is because they haven’t played anyone (other than getting smashed by Clemson twice). And, while Michigan is much improved this year over last year (specifically on defense, going from 110^th last year to 18^th this year), their resume is about as non-impressive at Va. Tech’s (a win over Nebraska is about it). For once, I won’t be upset if I miss the Sugar Bowl.

Gambling angle: This game usually matches up an SEC team against someone, so no real trends to look at here. Va. Tech is -2, and I like that, with the over 51.

Discover Orange Bowl – Jan. 4, 8:30pm ESPN

Clemson v. West Virginia

If you thought the Sugar Bowl was bad, Clemson and West Virginia isn’t much better (#15 versus #23), though at least they both won their conferences. However, this should be a fairly entertaining game with solid offenses (each average ~35/game) and average defenses (each give up ~26/game).

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 6-2 against the spread and the under has hit seven out of nine, but I like the opposite here. Lots of offense and not much defense = Clemson -3.5 and over 60.5

AT&T Cotton Bowl – Jan. 6, 8:00pm FOX

Arkansas v. Kansas State

It’s fitting that the Cotton Bowl is played after the Orange and Sugar bowls this year, as it’s more of a BCS matchup than either of those games. #6 Arkansas comes in with its only loses to #1 and #2 Alabama, and surprise of the year #8 Kansas State reaches this game with their only loses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Either of these teams could’ve and should’ve made a BCS game. Will that affect their mental preparation at all? Doubtful. As usual, I’ve gotta take the SEC over the Big-12, and Arkansas gets their 11^th win.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 7-1 straight up over the Big-12 in this game. That will continue, and I like Arkansas -7.5; and while the under is 7-3 here, I gotta take the over 63 with these two offenses.

BBVA Compass Bowl – Jan. 7 1:00pm ESPN

Pittsburgh v. SMU

After 32 games we get Pittsburg v. SMU on January 7^th? SMU stumbles into this one losing four of its last six, and Pitt doesn’t have a coach (who is off to ASU – I’m still wondering if ASU realizes Pitt went 6-6 this year when they made a move to get him). Pitt wins again here, for the second straight year.

Gambling angle: In the bowl formerly known as the papajohns.com bowl, the Big East is 5-0. I’ll take Pitt -5 and the under 48.

GoDaddy.com Bowl – Jan. 8 9:00pm ESPN

Northern Illinois v. Arkansas State

So we’ve seen the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl, and Sugar Bowl – so it must be time for the National Championship, right? Nope. The bowl formally known as the GMAC bowl is played on January 8^th this year, and is one of three bowl games between the traditional big four and the championship. And, believe it or not, I’m actually okay with this. If we’re not going to have a playoff, but all means – let’s have games between Northern Illinois and Arkansas State. At least we get a match-up of conference champions in this one; albeit the MAC and the Sunbelt. And, while this may not be a BCS match-up, both teams are red hot, with NIU winning eight straight and Arkansas State winning nine in a row. NIU scores a ton, but they also give up more than 30/game. Arkansas State wins in a shootout, and quick – name the Arkansas State mascot. Thought so.

Gambling angle: Favorites are 8-0-1 against the spread in this game, so let’s look to Arkansas State -1.5 and the over 62.5

AllState BCS National Championship – Jan. 9, 8:30pm ESPN

LSU v. Alabama

Normally, I’m not a big fan of rematches in bowl games; and especially in National Championship games. But, let’s remember what happened November 5^th in Tuscaloosa. Alabama missed four field goals; neither defense made a mistake; neither coach took a chance on offense; and yet, Alabama battled the clear #1 team in the country to a 6-6 tie in regulation. Alabama’s defense gives up 190 yards/game and less than 9 points/game; far and away the best defense in the country. Rematches usually favor the loser of the first game, especially with two teams as evenly matched as this. Part of me wants LSU to win, as they’ve clearly been the most dominating team all year; but the same could be said about Alabama if they don’t miss four FGs at home. Like I said in the first match-up (even though I was wrong), you won’t be able to win this game by kicking FGs. I like Alabama to win 23-20.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 5-0 straight up and against the spread here, so of course that will move to 6-0 with two SEC teams playing! LSU is -1, and the O/U is 39.5. For selfish reasons which I may or may not explain later, I like Alabama +1 and the over 39.5 as both teams will open up their offenses a lot more compared to the November 5^th match-up. I wonder if the AP will still give LSU the AP Title with a loss? Hmmm, shall we start this debate already? Nah, save it for next year.  

Well, that’s it for 2011’s college football season! From all of the editors, statisticians, researchers, and other contributors at the Autumn Wind (oh wait – it’s just me): Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Until next time year….