Bowl Preview Edition - Part I

Here’s the 5^th annual edition of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview. I’ll break ‘em all down: 35 bowls, 70 teams, starting December 17^th and ending January 9^th, including some very intriguing match-ups in non-BCS bowls. This year will be known as the bowl season without any games on January 1^st! That’s right, because the 1^st falls on a Sunday this year, college football deferred its usual New Year’s Day games to the 2^nd.

Here’s the games, dates, times, TV coverage, and angles (for entertainment purposes only) up to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on December 31^st. I’ll post the update for the real bowl games next week. Enjoy the last few weeks of the 2011-2012 college football season!

Gildan New Mexico Bowl – Dec. 17, 2:00pm ESPN

Wyoming v. Temple

A match-up of 8-4 teams start off the 2011-2012 bowl season, but Temple has the advantage here. The Owls are 7^th in the nation in rushing, and 3^rd in the nation in scoring defense. Wyoming is no stranger to this bowl, having won a couple years ago as a 12.5 point underdog. But, the Cowboys rushing defense is 6^th worst in the nation. The Temple Owls win a bowl game!

Gambling angle: This is the 6^th New Mexico Bowl – and underdogs have not only covered, but won outright in three of the first five. In addition the over has hit in the last three. Despite the underdog’s strong play in this bowl, I think Temple covers the 6.5, and the over 48 should be no problem as Temple will score early and often, and Wyoming will wind up with some garbage points in the 4^th.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Dec. 17, 5:30pm ESPN

Utah State v. Ohio

This is the match-up of “someone must win” as these two teams are a combined 1-11 in bowl games. Both teams score a lot (31-35/game) but also give up a lot (22-28/game) so we’re looking at an entertaining offensive match-up in this one. Ohio falls to 0-6 all time in bowls, as the Aggies get the win, in a close one.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 3-2-1 against the spread the last six here, and three of the past four played to the over. Utah State opened at -2 and it’s up to -2.5. Let’s take Utah State -2.5 and the over 57.5.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Dec. 17, 9:00pm ESPN

Louisiana Lafayette v. San Diego State

In this match-up of 8-4 teams, you’ve got a San Diego State team whose only losses were to other bowl teams versus Louisiana Lafayette, a team that struggled on the road and it making their first ever bowl appearance. Not really much else to say about this one other that Louisiana Lafayette’s defense has been getting worse towards the end of the season, and both offenses score ~30+/game.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 4-2 in the past six and the past six have played over the total. The play here is San Diego State -5 with the over 58.5.

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl – Dec 20, 8pm ESPN

Marshall v. Florida International

Alright, now it’s bowl season: a 6-6 team from the MAC versus a 4^th place team from the Sun Belt Conference. If you don’t have anything better to do than watch this game, then go ahead and jump off of a cliff.

Gambling angle: This is the 4th Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, with the Big East victorious in the previous three (all as favorites). The problem is the Big East sucked this year and couldn’t send anyone for this bowl game. FIU is favored by four, and I like that, along with the over 48.5.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – Dec. 21, 8:00pm ESPN

TCU v. Louisiana Tech

TCU’s rattled off seven straight since their inexplicable loss to SMU, including winning @ Boise. And keep this in mind, except for a two point loss to Baylor to open the season and that O.T. loss to SMU (both very winnable games), TCU could be looking at 37-0 the last three regular season. The Horned Frogs aren’t the same as their previous teams, but they should have no problems against a Louisiana Tech team that won the WAC.

Gambling angle: The Mountain West has won the past five here. TCU opened at -12, but that’s crept down to -10.5. Gimme TCU -10.5 and the under 55.5 as TCU grinds out a big win.

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl – Dec. 22, 8:00pm ESPN

Boise State v. Arizona State

This is the worst match up of the bowl season. Boise was one FG away from playing in the National Championship, and ASU (the preseason favorite in the PAC-12 South) finished 6-6, losing four straight, and firing head coach Dennis Erickson. However, as we know, the games aren’t played on paper and often teams that wind up in disappointing bowl game won’t show up. But, that won’t be the case here. Remember, Boise got snubbed last year as well and went and put a whipping on Utah in this same bowl game. The only question is if ASU will show up at all; that, and put an already undisciplined team with a lame duck coach in Vegas and watch disaster unfold. Kellen Moore gets his 50^th win, a feat that may never be equaled.  

Gambling angle: Boise opened at -14, and I like that number; and with ten of the last 13 Vegas Bowl’s hitting the under, I like the under 66 as ASU will struggle to score against the underrated Broncos defense.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl – Dec. 24, 8:00pm ESPN

Southern Miss v. Nevada

As usual, tons of offense in the Hawaii Bowl, with both teams scoring over 32 a game, mostly through the ground attack. Southern Miss won 11 games, though Fedora is out as coach (moving on to North Carolina). Nevada’s pistol offense averages more than 500/game, and they’ll have no problem racing up and down the field.

Gambling angle: Underdogs have won, and covered, the past four here, and seven of the last nine have played over. Southern Miss is at -6. I love Nevada +6, with the over 63.

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – Dec. 26, 5:00pm ESPN2

North Carolina v. Missouri

Missouri won three straight to get here, and North Carolina finishd 2-4 down the stretch and will be on their 3^rd coach in two years next year. Nothing to see here folks…

Gambling angle: Favorites are 6-2 against the spread and the last three here played under. Missouri is -4.5 and like that number, as well as the under 52.5.

Little Caesars Bowl – Dec. 27, 4:30pm ESPN

Purdue v. Western Michigan

Purdue lost to Rice and only beat 1-11 Indiana by seven points in a must win to clinch a bowl berth finale. I don’t really care what Western Michigan has or has not done, they win this game.

Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered four straight and under total is 8-4 in last 12 Motor City…errrrr, Little Caesars Bowls. Purdue is -2.5, though I like Western Michigan to win outright, as Purdue just gives up too many points. Even though the under is the trend here, I do like the over 60.

Belk Bowl – Dec. 27, 8:00pm ESPN

North Carolina State v. Louisville

In what used to be the Meineke Car Care Bowl, Louisville can’t score and plays in the Big East. NC State upset Clemson and then came from a million back to beat Maryland in their final game. NC State wins, and wins big..

Gambling angle: Let’s take NC State -2.5 and the under 44.5.

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman – Dec. 28 4:30pm ESPN

Air Force v. Toledo

Grab the popcorn and get ready for some offense and not much defense. Toledo scores 42+/game, but gives up 31/game and Air Force scores 35/game but gives up 27/game.

Gambling angle: All three is this bowl’s history have played to the over; so I like the Toledo -3 and the over 70, as Air Force’s defense is too banged up to stop anyone.

Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl – Dec. 28, 8:00pm ESPN

Texas v. California

Both Texas and Cal had disappointing seasons. However, they each ended differently. Texas lost three out of their last four, and Cal won three out of their last four. Their sole loss in that stretch was by a FG at BCS-bound Stanford. But the wins were against Oregon State, Washington State, and ASU. Not exactly ’85 Bears material there. Texas’ losses were to Baylor, K State, and Missouri; all bowl teams.

Gambling angle: Interesting angle’s here: the PAC-10 doesn’t win (3-7 straight up), and favorites cover (10-3). Same story. I’ll take Texas -3 and the under 47.5.

Champs Sports Bowl – Dec. 29, 5:30pm ESPN

Notre Dame v. Florida State

The battle of “remember when were good?” schools. 1993 and the “Game of the Century” seem so long ago because, well, that was 18 years ago! Still, I’ll enjoy watching this game for old times sake, and the O/U on how many times Bowden and Holtz are named is 28.5.

Gambling angle: The ACC is only 1-7 straight up in this game, and the under is 5-1 the past six. I really like Notre Dame +3 and the under 47

Valero Alamo Bowl – Dec. 29, 9:00pm ESPN

Baylor v. Washington

The Big 12 has owned the PAC-12 in recent history in this game which bodes well for RGIII and Baylor. Rightfully so, Vegas has this game as the highest O/U this year. Baylor scores 43/game but gives up 36/game and Washington gives up more than it scores (33 and 31, respectively). Gonna be a ton of scoring in this one, and with it being played in RGIII’s backyard, I like Baylor.

Gambling angle: Even though five of eight played under, and underdogs are 6-4 against the spread; I’m going to buck both trends here and take Baylor -9 and the over 78.5.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl – Dec. 30, 12:00pm ESPN

Tulsa v. Brigham Young

BYU finished 9-3, but outside of Texas, didn’t play anyone. Tulsa didn’t really beat anyone, but their only losses were to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and Houston. Gonna be hard to watch the Armed Forces Bowl without an Armed Forces team playing.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 6-1 against the spread in this one, winning the last two outright. I like Tulsa +2.5. The over/under alternated the last 8 years; it’s this year’s turn for the over (which I like over 55.5).

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Dec. 30, 3:20pm ESPN

Iowa State v. Rutgers

Everyone knows Iowa State as the team that beat Oklahoma State. No one knows anything about Rutgers. Gotta go with Big-12 over Big East here, solely on principle.

Gambling angle: I’ll take Iowa State +1.5 and the over 44.5.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Dec. 30, 6:40pm ESPN

Wake Forest v. Mississippi State

I refuse to even acknowledge this game. Okay, the name of bowl is cool. That’s about it.

Gambling angle: I like Mississippi -7 (favorites are 5-1-1 the last seven Music City bowls) and since seven of ten have played under, I like the under 48.

Insight Bowl – Dec. 30, 10:00pm ESPN

Oklahoma v. Iowa

Iowa’s back at the Insight Bowl, and Oklahoma winds up here, even though they started the season at #1. Oklahoma has a lot to prove in this one, and again, I’ll pick the Big-12 over the Big 10 solely on principle

Gambling angle: The over is 8-1 in this last nine here, and the Big-12 had won four straight v. Big-10 before Iowa upset Missouri last year. Oklahoma wins, but not by the 14 they are favored by. I’ll take Iowa +14 and the over 58.

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas – Dec. 31, 12:00pm ESPN

Northwestern v. Texas A&M

The old Texas Bowl is now the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas. And once again, middle of the road Big-10 versus middle of the road Big-12 in this edition of the Texas Bowl. Which Northwestern team will show: the team that lost to Army or the team that beat Nebraska in Lincoln? Not that it will really matter. Sure, A&M is only 6-6, but they did beat Baylor, lost to Oklahoma State by one, Arkansas by four, Texas by two, and Missouri and Kansas State in O.T. Their only real bad loss was @ Oklahoma.

Gambling angle: I like Texas A&M -10, as favorites are 6-2-2 against the spread in this bowl; and I like the over 65 as well as three of the past four played over, and each defense is capable of giving up lots and lots of big plays.

Hyundai Sun Bowl – Dec. 31, 2:00pm CBS

Utah v. Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech’s rushing offense (3^rd in the nation) goes against Utah’s 20-point/game defense. This one will be an ugly game.

Gambling angle: I’ll take Georgia Tech -3.5 and the under 50.5.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl – Dec. 31 3:30pm ESPN

UCLA v. Illinois

If Kraft wasn’t trying to fight hunger with this bowl, I’d say why bother. Both teams are 6-6, Illinois has lost six straight, UCLA’s signature win was over San Jose State, and neither team has a coach.

Gambling angle: I guess I’ll take Illinois -2.5 and the over 47.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Dec 31, 3:30pm ABC

Vanderbilt v. Cincinnati

This is life in the SEC. The talk was how Vandy surprised everyone this year; enough so to give their coach an extension. Um, did anyone else notice they finished 2-6 in the SEC, including loses to Tennessee and Florida? And while Cincinnati won a share of the Big East title, keep in mind it’s the Big East; and they too lost to Tennessee, and their quality win was, what, Louisville? Ugh, the 3:30 time slot on New Years Eve is this game and the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl? I wonder if a Back to the Future marathon is on, cuz I won’t be watching either of these games.

Gambling angle: Vandy is a 2.5 point favorite, but I’m guessing that’s just an SEC v. Big East thing. The underdogs have covered six out of seven here, and the under has hit nine out of the last 12. So, if I had to put action on this game, I’d take Cincy +2.5 and the under 48.5

Chick-fil-A Bowl – Dec. 31, 7:30pm ESPN

Auburn v. Virginia

It’s still hard to believe that Virginia had a shot to go to the ACC Title game, then lost to Va. Tech at home 38-0. The defending BCS Champs Auburn surprised many folks with their early upsets over Mississippi State and South Carolina, but then they got destroyed later by Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, and Alabama. Tough one to pick here, but I’ll usually pick a middle of the road SEC team versus a second tier ACC team.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 4-2 straight up in the last six here, so I like Auburn -1.5; and the over 48.5 as both teams should be able to score.

Well that’s it for the pre-New Year’s Games!

Until next time…