Week 3 Recap and Week 4 Preview

So it’s looking like Missouri and Texas A&M to the SEC; Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, etc. to Big East; much of the Big East to the ACC; and the Big 12 is stuck with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, and Baylor because no one wants Oklahoma without Texas, and no one wants Texas period because of their arrogance that destroyed the Big 12 in the first place. Classic.

On to actual football. Well, I was 4-0 in big games last week, which now brings my record to 10-2 overall. Of course the first three weeks are relatively easy. Now that we’re getting into conference play, things will get a little more interesting.

I found the number of ranked teams that were underdogs against unranked teams this weekend a little alarming. Yet, Michigan State, Arizona State, Ohio State, and Auburn all ended up losing (West Virginia was the only one to get a victory). I’m almost wishing that football would hold off on any rankings until week four or five; as Vegas clearly has a better handle on who’s “good” than the reporters or coaching assistant voters that rank the AP and Coach’s polls.

Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 3 Top-10 recap:

1. There’s a very good shot that LSU/Alabama game on November 5ht could wind up 6-3 in 4 O.T. with the way those two defenses play. LSU has now held two of the top-10 rushing teams to less than 100 yards on the ground; both times away from home. And Alabama is only giving up 6 points a game. The major polls have them #2 and #3 in the country; I pretty much have them #1a and #1c, with Oklahoma sitting at #1b.

2. It won’t be long and Kellen Moore will cruise by Colt McCoy in the total number of collegiate victories category. And he’s doing it in style. Nearly 80% completion percentage, 350+ yards/game, and 4 T.Ds/game. I’ll admit it, Boise State is fun to watch. And look for Moore to put up huge numbers in a couple weeks in a revenge game at home against Nevada.

3. Speaking of McCoy; it looks like there’s a new McCoy in town for the Longhorns. Case (Colt’s younger brother) seems to have provided a spark for Texas who find themselves 3-0 and back in the Top-25.

4. Nebraska’s going to have trouble in the Big 10 if the Blackshirts continue to play like they have been. Giving up 21 points in the fourth quarter at home is bad enough; but given up 38 total to a Washington team that barely beat Eastern Washington and Hawaii in Seattle.

5. Did South Carolina really need a 4^th quarter TD to beat Navy? Sorry guys, you can’t be in my Top-10 if Navy almost takes you down in week 3.

6. I was very impressed with how Stanford played on the road in Tucson. Of my Top-5 teams, Stanford is the only one that have no “yeah, they’re a good team..but..” statements about. Very disciplined, great offense, solid defense, strong special teams, tough, gritty; oh, and Andrew Luck at the helm. He manages a game incredibly well.

7. Notre Dame’s defense played extremely well against Michigan State – only giving up 39 rushing yards and basically turning them into a one-dimensional throwing offense for the last three quarters. But, despite the win, the Irish can’t continue to turn the ball over 3-5 times a game. That is just plain ridiculous.

8. Case in point to the point above? Look no further than Arizona State. They’re an incredibly athletic team; but turnovers, penalties and mental mistakes are going to haunt the Sun Devils all year.

9. Oklahoma won a big road game in a way I didn’t think they were capable of: ugly, smash-mouth, physical, low-scoring football. That should give the Sooners the confidence they need as they head into the Big-12 schedule.

10. Has the Oklahoma State/Tulsa game kicked off yet? I hate when I’ve got money on a time and weather delays force a post-midnight kick-off!

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Alabama (3-0) – If I wasn’t philosophically opposed to lowering a #1 without losing, you wouldn’t be here right now; based on what I’ve seen so far from Oklahoma and LSU. Then again, does Arkansas make my decision easy this weekend?

#2 Oklahoma (2-0) – An ugly win is better than a pretty loss.

#3 LSU (2-0) – How long until LSU is under NCAA sanctions? Les may be the new Petey.

#4 Stanford (3-0) – I thought they’d lose some of their grit with Harbaugh leaving. I was totally wrong. Stanford is definitely the front-runner in the PAC-12 North.

#5 Boise State (2-0) – If LSU and/or Alabama wind up with one loss and don’t go to the BCS Title Game, and I want to see what Kellen can do against a real SEC defense.

#6 Virginia Tech (3-0) – I really though you’d run the table; well at least to the ACC Championship Game. But, I’m calling it now; upset on November 10^th, when you go to Georgia Tech.

#7 Oklahoma State (3-0) – Are you capable of winning a game they way Oklahoma did? Because you’ve got a couple opponents coming up that are going to play that way, including this week @ A&M.

#8 Wisconsin (3-0) – Solid team. Favorites now in the Big 10 “whatever your sub division is called.”

#9 Texas A&M (2-0) – A chance this weekend to really make a believer out of me.

#10 Nebraska (3-0) – The defense really needs to start playing football. For a whole game.

Rising Fast:

Georgia Tech – First in scoring offense (~60/game), first in rushing (~430/game). A 10-win season isn’t out of the question.

Falling Faster:

Boston College – the only winless team in the paltry ACC, and their schedule gets worse with trips to Clemson, Va. Tech, Notre Dame, Miami, and a visit from Florida State. If they don’t win this week against Massachusetts, they may not win a game all year.

Heisman Watch:

Andrew Luck, Stanford – Although, I’m starting to lean to Kellen Moore, based on what his final four year numbers are going to be…

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Alabama v. Oklahoma – Oklahoma has proven itself thus far; we’ll know more about Alabama after this week.

Week 4 Big Games:

Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M – A&M is at home, and favored, against a Top-10 team. I see something special in this Oklahoma State squad. Yeah, their offense is great and their defense is sub-par, but they have “it” this year. Wrong team favored: Oklahoma State 37 Texas A&M 20

Florida State @ Clemson – Florida State hasn’t won in Death Valley since 2001. Even though the Seminoles lost last weekend, I did see enough to realize they are a top-tier team. FSU 31 Clemson 21

LSU @ West Virginia – LSU plays their third game of the year against a ranked team away from home. Wow. I take back everything I’ve ever said about SEC cupcake non-con schedules. Then again, this is West Virginia. Someone in the Big East has to get ranked in the Top-25 in order to justify sending their conference champ to a BCS game. LSU wins and wins big: 41 to 10

Week 3 Game of the Week:

Arkansas @ Alabama – The Tide is an 11.5 point favorite in this one. I’m not so sure Alabama will score enough to cover that number. Once again, the defense will save the day: Alabama 27 Arkansas 24

Until next time…