Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Preview

Realignment’s kinda cooled off a little with the Big-12 (back to the Big 8?) holding steady, the SEC and PAC-12 saying that they’re done expanding, and the basketball schools in the ACC and Big East starting to influence some football decisions.

On the field, I was 3-1 in big games (13-3 overall) this past weekend, and this weekend the calendar turns to October – or as us gamblers call it: Locktober! And, it’s always a good weekend when Notre Dame, Arizona State, and Nebraska all win…

Undefeated teams will continue to fall as conference play gears up, though there are a couple non-major teams (Boise State and Houston) that have a decent shot at running the table. This would get more interesting if the BCS does decide to drop the stupid rule that a conference can’t have more than two teams in BCS games.

Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 4 Top-10 recap:

1. LSU is 3-0 away from home against ranked teams through four weeks. Even with a couple of their star players still suspended. Just how Les likes it: chaotic. They should be 8-0, and they have a bye week before the huge match-up in Tuscaloosa on November 5^th. What’s a ticket gonna run for that one Geno?

2. If able continues to have their offense show up like it did against Arkansas, they will be nearly impossible to beat. The hogs never had a chance on Saturday.

3. I mentioned in last week’s column that I saw something special in this Oklahoma State team. That was re-affirmed as they came from 17 down to beat A&M on the road. No one does that against the Wrecking Crew! Well, the Cowboys just did.

4. Florida State looked tired and worn out early against Clemson. The beating they took the week before against Oklahoma probably had something to do with it; as did the curse of playing in Death Valley.

5. Arizona State finally beat USC. That hasn’t happened since 1999. As much as I love seeing SC lose, I laugh even more watching what a joke of coach Lame Kiffin is. The my laughter turns to sadness as I realize how many millions of dollars he’s made sucking at his job. And then my sadness turns to tears as I visualize the pictures of his wife in a bikini that were floating around the interwebz a few years ago.

6. I love watching last second plays. This weekend, Kansas State stuffed Miami on the goal-line on 4^th down with less than a minute to go. Originally ruled a likely game winning TD in Miami, the right call was made when the replay booth reversed the call…

7. …unlike what happened in the Syracuse/Toledo game, where an extra point Syracuse kicked late in the game was incorrectly called good, and that even the replay officials missed it. Of course, Syracuse ended up prevailing in overtime…

8. Alright gamblers – what the over/under on number of turnovers when Notre Dame plays USC in November? Notre Dame is currently last in the league (well, first, I guess), and SC isn’t that far behind. How ‘bout 8.5, +/-110.

9. Houston’s got a shot to stay undefeated, and if so, Case Keenum should get some Heisman attention. The Cougars are putting up ~450 yards/game in the air, and they don’t play a difficult game until mid-November.

10. Florida’s 4-0 and rocketing up the polls, but let’s take a look at their victories: FAU, UAB, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Now, look at their next six: v. Alabama, @ LSU, @ Auburn, v. Georgia, v. Vandy, @ South Carolina. I fail to see more than one (two tops) wins in this stretch. Such is life in the SEC…

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Alabama (4-0) – As much as I try to hate Saban, I can’t.

#2 LSU (4-0) – 1a/1b with Alabama. Clearing the schedule for November 5^th…

#3 Oklahoma (3-0) – I thought about dropping you lower, but I understand a struggle against an average team a week after a big emotional road victory. Now, go score about 65 against Ball State…

#4 Stanford (3-0) – Still my pick to win the PAC-12, and possibly sneak into the top-2.

#5 Boise State (3-0) – Fiesta Bowl, again?

#6 Virginia Tech (4-0) – Time for some Beamer ball – FGs, field position, and defense.

#7 Oklahoma State (4-0) – Special I tell you, this team is special!

#8 Wisconsin (4-0) – You haven’t played anyone yet. That changes this weekend when the Huskers come to town.

#9 Nebraska (4-0) – You haven’t really played anyone yet, but unlike Wisconsin, you’ve struggled at times. Good luck in Camp Randall!

#10 Oregon (3-1) – You belong back in my top-10. You did score 27 against LSU, something that LSU’s other three opponents combined barely totaled, and the schedule is manageable, sans the trip to Stanford in early November.

Rising Fast:

Clemson – Just when I declared the ACC was a two-pony with Va. Tech and Florida State, Clemson (and Georgia Tech for that matter) are saying “don’t forget about us!”

Falling Faster:

Florida State – Dagummit!

Heisman Watch:

Andrew Luck, Stanford – Though, check out these numbers from a rising candidate: 85% completion percentage, 962 yards, 13 TDs, 0 INTs. Kellen Moore? Nope – Robert Griffin III from Baylor. Heck, he has more TD passes than incomplete passes on the year!

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Alabama v. Oklahoma – Though, a rematch of Alabama/LSU may be more intriguing...

Week 5 Big Games:

Texas A&M @ Arkansas – A neutral site game, and one that matches up teams that got beat in big games last weekend. You’d think Arkansas would be excited to get a reprieve from the SEC schedule; but not with a pissed off Aggie team playing basically in their back yard. Texas A&M 38-35

Clemson @ Virginia Tech – My “rising fast” teams have a tendency to lose immediately; and no different here. To think a young Clemson team is going to go into Blacksburg and do anything against Va. Tech’s defense is laughable. Va Tech 27-10.

Alabama @ Florida – Don’t buy into the smoke and mirrors that Florida is the #5 best defense against the run. Their previous opponents are ranked 90^th or worse in rushing. Alabama rolls over the Gators 38-20.

Week 5 Game of the Week:

Nebraska @ Wisconsin – The Blackshirts are given up a surprising 22/game, and Wisconsin hasn’t played anybody yet; so it’s really hard to gage this game. What we all know is that Camp Randall will be rocking for the first Big-10 match-up with the Huskers, and that right there gives Wisconsin a big advantage. I like Wisconsin to win 31-20.

Until next time…