Week 10 Recap and Week 11 Preview

Just when you thought realignment was providing enough off-the-field drama, queue Penn State. Ugh. It’s being discussed in so many other outlets, I just want to keep The Wind about football.

I said that Alabama/LSU couldn’t win by kicking field goals. I guess what I should have said was Alabama couldn’t win by missing field goals! I’ll let Uncle Geno break this down further in the recap, but I will say this: I seriously thought in O.T. that LSU should’ve taken four knees and gone to a 2^nd O.T. The way that game was headed, the defenses has a better chance at scoring points than the offenses!

And with that contest over, and Alabama’s surprisingly #3 ranking in the BCS, the Title picture is becoming a little clearer. Assuming LSU wins out (v. Western Kentucky, @ Ole Miss, v. Arkansas, v. SEC-East) they are obviously in. There are really only three other teams left in the picture (sorry Boise State): Alabama, the winner of Oregon/Stanford, and the winner of Oklahoma/Oklahoma State. I say if Stanford wins out, they’re in. Most other’s say if Oklahoma State wins out, they’re in. I’m actually okay with either. Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Does Alabama deserve to get to #2, and a re-match, with a loss at home to #1? On the same token, does Oregon deserve a re-match with LSU? Of course, plenty of strange things can, and following recent history, WILL, happen in the next few weeks.

I was only 2-2 in big games this past weekend, but still a respectable 29-11 overall.

Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 10 Top-10 recap:

1. I said it a few weeks ago – Stanford’s injuries may be its only weakness. Yet, despite all of the injuries they’re still blowing away teams (8-0-1 against the spread). And they get Oregon at home this time.

2. Oklahoma State is special. I keep saying it. They just keep finding ways to get it done. Though I think Stanford is the better team, I wouldn’t mind seeing what the Cowboy offense could do against the LSU defense.

3. Arkansas can really screw things up if they upset LSU the day after Thanksgiving. That would leave the SEC-West with LSU over Alabama, Alabama over Arkansas and Arkansas over LSU. And the tie-breakers in the SEC get complicated. It’s related to BCS ranking, but only if the #2 team is more than five spots below the #1 team. If not, it goes to head-to-head based on the #1 and #2 teams. So, let’s pretend Arkansas beats LSU. Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas would most likely be within five spots of each other. Alabama would need to either be in the #1 or #2 conference spot with LSU #3. Arkansas would need Alabama in the #3 spot, and LSU would need to be #1 or #2 with Alabama #1 or #2 and Arkansas #3. I need a beer, and an LSU win on November 25^th! 

4. Georgia controls it’s destiny in the SEC East and UCLA the same in the PAC-12 South. Weird. Richt may save his job is he makes it to the SEC-Championship.

5. Speaking of controlling destiny: who loses at home to a crappy team with a back-up quarterback with a shot at getting to their first Big-10 conference title? Nice job Nebraska…

6. I’ve been really rough on the Big East this year, as usual. But quite honestly, the Big-10 isn’t much better…Penn State leads the conference overall, and what’s their signature win? 14-10 over Temple?

7. Keenum and Moore continue to shatter records. Case now has the most passing yards in NCAA history to go along with the most passing TDs record that he broke last week; and Kellen now has 46 wins, highest ever for a quarterback. When it’s all said and done, both Houston and Boise State should be undefeated, and both Kellen and Case should be invited to the Heisman ceremony; if for nothing else but career achievement.

8. Arizona lost to Utah??? Sheesh, it’s really getting bad down at the ol’ Pueblo. But, that’s never a good thing, as the upcoming Territorial Cup match-up with Arizona State is usually won by the crappy team.

9. Speaking of the PAC-12, take a look at the number of teams per conference in the current BCS standings: SEC (6), Big-12 (5), Big-10 (5), ACC (3), C-USA (2), PAC-12 (2), Big East (1), MWC (1). That’s right, Conference USA has as many teams in the BCS Top-25 as the PAC-12. Not to discredit Oregon or Stanford at all, but PAC-12 is pretty awful overall this year (in fairness, USC would be ranked in the BCS, but can’t because of the probation).

10. And finally, here’s the analysis of the LSU @ Alabama game, courtesy of Uncle Gene:

Excellent defensive schemes on both sides. Linebackers looked like DTs, CBs look like LBs with speed.

Chess match with defenses revising calls based on film study tendencies. Defensives: EVEN

Take what the defense gives you? Neither gave much. Offensives looked vanilla almost NFL-like. Play calling was Okay. Offensives:  EVEN

Special teams: LSU by a mile

Swagger: LSU – though some would call three face mask penalties and Mathiews’ cold cocking of Dre Kirkpatrick, “dirty” or “undisciplined” others would think of the Raiders in the 70s. They intimidated Bama’s offensive line at times.

Plays of the game:

- Blocked field goal and interceptions set up LSU scores, Alabama’s defense looked worried after that.

- Tip by LSU DB in end zone in 3^rd quarter, touchdown in any other game.

- Interception / take away with 11;25 left.

- 72 yard punt

 - Sack by LSU in OT 

Finally, Alabama didn’t miss Julio Jones or Mark Ingram, they missed Leigh Tiffin, the kicker from previous years.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 LSU (9-0) – Whoever’s idea it was to schedule Western Kentucky following @ Alabama, nice work.

#2 Stanford (9-0) – Probably could beat the Raiders.

#3 Oklahoma State (9-0) – I just can’t imagine you being able to put 45+ up on LSU, Stanford, or Alabama.

#4 Alabama (8-1) – I won’t put you higher than fourth, unless something really crazy happens in the next four weeks.

#5 Boise State (8-0) – I won’t put you higher than fifth. Enjoy the trip to the Fiesta Bowl. Again.

#6 Oregon (8-1) – Remember when Oregon scored over four times as many points against LSU as Alabama did?

#7 Arkansas (8-1) – The hogs are saying “Don’t forget about us…”

#8 Oklahoma (8-1) – …as are the Sooners.

#9 Virginia Tech (8-1) – Back in the Top-10, for a week…

#10 Houston (9-0) – Howdy Houston, welcome to the spotlight. First in the country in passing, first in scoring, but that @ Tulsa game at the end of the season is looking scary. Remember, Tulsa’s only losses are to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Boise State (all Top-10 teams). Tulsa’s scheduling department should be fired – a C-USA team getting stuck playing four Top-10 teams?

Rising Fast:

Georgia – Seven straight, and the potential to get closer to the Top-10 while wrapping up the SEC-East.

Falling Faster:

Nebraska – Getting blown out @ Camp Randall is one thing; losing in Lincoln to a crappy team with a backup QB is another. And it’s not done yet for Nebraska. There are possibly two more losses out there, maybe three.

Heisman Watch:

Andrew Luck, Stanford – 17 straight, and counting, for the Cardinal. If they win against Oregon this weekend, Luck has the Heisman wrapped up.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

LSU v. Stanford – I’d love to see Andrew Luck pick apart the LSU secondary. Well, attempt to.

Week 11 Big Games:

Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech – A Thursday night match-up of rushing offense, versus rushing defense. The winner will likely represent the ACC-Coastal in the ACC Championship (as the winner here has the last five years). If the game was in Blacksburg, I’d say Va. Tech wins in a blow-out (I think they’re like 75-0 on Thursday night games at home), but on the road is a different story. G. Tech grinds out a victory: 20-17

Nebraska @ Penn State – JoePA’s last home game, Senior Day for Penn State, and both teams with a shot at the inaugural Big-10 Championship Game. This one is simple. If Penn State (like every other team that faces Nebraska) is able to stop the run and force Martinez to throw, they have a chance. The problem is, Penn State is 100^th in the nation in scoring. Even if they do slow down Nebraska, they won’t be able to score enough to win. Nebraska 24 Penn State 13

Auburn @ Georgia – September seems so long ago for the Bulldogs. After back-to-back losses to Boise and South Carolina to open the season, Georgia has rattled off seven straight wins and is looking to clinch the SEC-East for the first time since 2005. The defending champs, Auburn, is coming off of a bye, and is healthy. A win here, and Richt saves his job. Georgia 38 Auburn 27

TCU @ Boise State – The premiere match-up the Mountain West had hoped for will only happen once thanks for TCU joining the Big East and then the Big 12, and Boise likely going to the Big East. Boise has struggled lately, barely beating Air Force, and playing basically a tie game first half against UNLV. TCU is flying below the radar, with their only two loss by a total of nine points. Boise doesn’t lose on the blue turf, but TCU doesn’t lose MWC games (21 straight). Boise wins, in a typical Boise/TCU low scoring smash-fest: 24 to 14

Week 11 Games of the Week:

Oregon @ Stanford – What’s at stake in this game? The PAC-12 North, and a legit shot at getting to #2 in the BCS. Keep in mind Oregon’s only PAC-10 loss in the last three years was @ Stanford in 2009, and Stanford’s only loss in the last two years was @ Eugene last year – a game in which Stanford was up 21-3 in the first quarter. Stanford is old school: huge offensive line and tight ends, four scholarship fullbacks, a pro-style quarterback and a grind it out offense. Oregon is new school: no huddle spread formation, incredible speed, and a quick scoring offense that likes to put up TDs in less the two minutes. The results are eerily the same: both teams are Top-10 in the nation in pretty much every offensive category, and each put up ~510 yards/game and ~48 points/game. Stanford’s defense has given up less points, but don’t confuse Oregon’s 21 point/game defense with a bad one. That’s just a byproduct of their offensive style. With their style, I didn’t think Oregon could be beat, just because they’d eventually out score you. Auburn last year and LSU this year proved me wrong, and I really think Stanford will too. Keep in mind Oregon struggled at home against both Arizona State and Washington State, and didn’t score in the 4^th quarter against Washington; while Stanford (outside of injuries) has not struggled at all, with the exception of the USC game – though that outcome was exactly what I thought it would be. This will be a wild, bizarre shoot-out, similar to the last two years, and Stanford comes out on top 48 to 41.

Until next time…