Week 12 Recap and Week 13 Preview

Wow. What a weekend. Uncle Gene outlined a scenario last week where Va. Tech plays for the BCS Title, and I laughed it off. Shame on me. The interesting thing is that he didn’t include Oregon losing to USC, Oklahoma State losing to Iowa State, and Oklahoma losing to Baylor in his scenario; so anything is possible. There are no doubts about #1-3 in the BCS, but below, I’ll show why the current rankings of the #5-10 teams are a joke. It’s too bad we don’t have a playoff, because it would all work itself out on the field, instead of inside a hard drive.

I was again 2-3 in big games this past weekend, but still a respectable 33-17 overall. Only a couple weeks to go until the big bowl preview edition!

In this rendition of the Autumn Wind’s week 12 Top-10 recap, I’ll break down each of the BCS Top-10 teams, their resumes, and why I agree or completely disagree with the rankings:

1. LSU – Obviously agree with this ranking. They’ve beat everyone they’ve played. Interestingly, LSU is likely assured a Top 2 spot if they lose to Arkansas this weekend and don’t make the SEC Title Game. Where a loss to Arkansas and a loss to Georgia would knock them out. That says everything about the BCS. LSU is better off throwing the last regular season game of the year. Nice system.

2. Alabama – You have to have Alabama above Arkansas and below LSU (based on direct head-to-head), so #2 is appropriate. Alabama’s best chance for a BCS Title Appearance is status quo (meaning they’re rooting for LSU to beat Arkansas, even though Alabama has the head-to-head lead over Arkansas, but not LSU). Again, great system, huh? But, you’ve gotta win the Iron Bowl first…

3. Arkansas – #3 is appropriate here, as you’re only blemish was @ Alabama. Keep in mind though, Arkansas had really close game against Troy, Texas A&M, @ Ole Miss, and @ Vandy, so they are vulnerable. How vulnerable? We’ll know by Friday night…

4. Oklahoma State – Many people don’t like Oklahoma State being in this position. I think it’s appropriate. They’re only loss was in O.T. on the road a day after to of their university basketball coaches died in a plane crash. And, keep in mind that they completely destroyed the Texas Tech team in Lubbock – the same team that went into Norman and beat Oklahoma. #4 is where they belong, and if they win against Oklahoma in a couple weeks, they should be given serious consideration for #2.

5. Virginia Tech – This is the biggest joke of a BCS ranking I’ve ever seen. They’re loss was at home to the fraud known as Clemson, and they only beat Duke 14-10. Their quality win is, what? Georgia Tech? And that gets them #5 in the BCS and a possible shot at the title should a few chips fall in the right place? Oh my, that would be the worst BCS Championship game team since all of those Ohio State teams. Va. Tech reminds me of that ASU team a couple years ago that jumped 4 or 5 spots in the BCS during their bye week. Just because someone above them loses, doesn’t automatically mean you should jump that many spots…

6. Stanford – I’ve loved Stanford all year, but you can’t have them ranked this high over a team they lost to at home (Oregon). Especially since the game wasn’t that close. Stanford’s resume isn’t much better than Va. Tech, except for beating a highly underrated USC team (you have no idea how painful that is for me to say!). And, for the record, Stanford went into Duke and blew them out 44-14. Stanford has to be rated higher than Va. Tech, but lower than Oregon.

7. Boise State – Ouch, that missed kick against TCU really hurts now, as Boise probably would sneak into the Top-2 with what’s gone on the last couple of weeks. And remember, Boise handled Georgia early in the year – and Georgia does have a shot at the SEC Title. #7 and a BCS game is appropriate.

8. Houston – I struggle with where to put Houston. What’s their quality win? UCLA? Gimme a break. They’ve had an impressive season, but shouldn’t be higher than #10.

9. Oklahoma – I struggle to see how Oklahoma rates out higher than Oregon. They lost at home to an average team, and their best WR is out for the season, so they really don’t have much of a chance in Bedlam. #9 may be appropriate, but they shouldn’t be above Oregon.

10. Oregon – Herbstreit nailed it on the BCS show on Sunday. It used to be said that you couldn’t get to the title by playing cupcake teams. But now, you have a team like Oregon that’s being punished for a week one non-conference loss to the unanimous #1 team in the country, and a late loss to a USC team that could/should very well have victories against both Oregon and Stanford. They were down 38-14 in the second half against a solid USC team, following a hugely emotional win the week before @ Stanford, and in essence tied the game up (do you think there will be an emphasis on kicking recruiting this off season by all of the major programs?). Is that something Va. Tech, Stanford, Boise, Houston, and Oklahoma are capable of? No. Oregon should not be all the way down to #10. Their resume is similar to the two-loss LSU team from a few years ago that deservingly made it to the Title. Now, am I saying that Oregon deserves to get there? No, but #10 is an insult.

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

#1 LSU (11-0) – Clearly #1.

#2 Alabama (10-1) – Only loss was to #1.

#3 Arkansas (10-1) – Only loss was to #2.

#4 Oklahoma State (10-1) – Following the loss of a couple University coaches, I’ll let this one loss slide. But, you really need to beat Oklahoma.

#5 Oregon (9-2) – I think on a neutral field, you’d be favored over any of the teams below you, hence my reason for putting a 2 loss Ducks team @ #5.

#6 Stanford (10-1) – If it wasn’t for that pesky loss to Oregon, you’d be playing for a national championship.

#7 Boise State (10-1) – I wonder how many kickers Boise is going to recruit for next year?

#8 Virginia Tech (10-1) – Wouldn’t it be funny if this winds up being Beamer’s year?

#9 Oklahoma (9-2) – I really should have Georgia at #9.

#10 Houston (11-0) – Remember, all three of Tulsa’s losses were to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Boise State. Good luck!

Rising Fast:

Arkansas – 7 straight since the ‘Bama loss, and a serious contender to really screw things up in the SEC-West and the BCS.

Falling Faster:

Field Goal kickers: How many games have been lost due to bad kickers this year? Alabama, Boise State, and Oregon know what I’m talking about.

Heisman Watch:

Case Keenum, Houston – Luck, Weeden, and James are all finished; so that leaves us with Keenum, Richardson, or RGIII. Keenum’s numbers are amazing: 4200+ yards, 38 T.D.s, only 3 INTs, and plenty of ridiculous career records. Oh, and Houston is 11-0.

BCS Title Game Prediction:

LSU v. Oklahoma State – This is the game I want to see, but I fear it’ll end up being an SEC-West rematch with either Alabama or Arkansas.

Week 13 Big Games:

Georgia @ Georgia Tech – Rushing defense versus rushing offense in this matchup. Georgia is second in the nation in rushing defense, and G. Tech is second in rushing. Georgia has won 9 straight for the first time since 1982, and is 9-1 against Tech in the last 10 (only losing that wild 45-42 game in 2008). While they’re already in the SEC Championship Game, Georgia needs this win to break into the Top-10 in the BCS. Georgia 31 Georgia Tech 27

Ohio State @ Michigan – It’s hard to believe that Michigan has not beat Ohio State since 2003! Michigan hopes to keep its BCS bowl chances alive. Ohio State is down this year, and Michigan is faster, stronger, and hungrier. Michigan 45 Ohio State 27

Penn State @ Wisconsin – The Big Ten whatever it’s called subdivision is up for grabs in this one. Wisconsin will run early, run often, and run up the score: 52 to 13.

Alabama @ Auburn – The Iron Bowl. The last two National Champions collide. Once again, BCS implications. 2010 1^st half: Alabama 24 Auburn 0. Final: Alabama 27 Auburn 28. That’s all that needs to be said. Oh, and no Cam Newton. Roll, Tide, Roll!. Alabama 34 Auburn 24

Notre Dame @ Stanford – Notre Dame’s back in the rankings after four straight wins and Stanford has eyes at the Fiesta Bowl. Stanford is only a 7 point favorite, but there is no way Notre Dame keeps it that close. Stanford 41 Notre Dame 24

Week 13 Games of the Week:

Arkansas @ LSU – It’s the 2011 Game of the Century v2.0. Remember that LSU gave up over 500 total yards to West Virginia, and Arkansas’ offense is a lot more potent. The key to this game will be if (well, when, actually) LSU’s secondary can force turnovers. If they do, they win, if not it will be a struggle for the Tigers. LSU is home, and is just too darn good; LSU will win, but not by the 14 that Vegas picked. LSU 31 Arkansas 28

Until next time…