And here’s part duex of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview Edition! Enjoy! As of press time (half time of the Virginia Tech and Rutgers game), I’m 10-2 against the spread and 9-3 on the over/under. That’s some prognostication right there!
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPN
Northwestern v. Mississippi State
The first bowl game of 2013, and it matches up teams from the Big 10 and SEC, which never seems to go well for the Big 10. And even more so since Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1949 and Mississippi State has won five straight bowl games. But, Mississippi ended on quite the skid, losing four outta five (granted, in the heat of the SEC schedule). And where’s their quality win? Auburn, Arkansas, Tennessee?? Okay, SEC folks – not everyone in your conference is the ’85 Bears. North western’s three losses were all close games to quality teams (Penn State, Nebraska, and Michigan). Can’t believe it, but I like the Big 10 over the SEC in this one.
Gambling angle: As usual, the trend is for underdogs to cover here, and I like Mississippi State +2, and the under 51.5.
Heart of Dallas Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPNU
Oklahoma State v. Purdue
This used to be the Ticket City Bowl, but after only two years it’s now the Heart of Dallas Bowl. If you’re Purdue, it’s never a good thing to have needed a win against Indiana the last game of the year to become bowl eligible, and then immediately firing your coach. And if you’re Oklahoma State, it hasn’t been good to play away from home (they’re only road win was against what should be Division III Kansas). And finally, if you’re expecting this to be a quality New Year’s Day game, you’ll be disappointed; though it’ll likely wind up in a shootout as both defenses have struggled.
Gambling angle: No strong trends here for such a young bowl game, but even at -16.5, I like Oklahoma State. And let’s look to the over 70 as both teams give up ~30/game.
Outback Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ESPN
South Carolina v. Michigan
The Outback Bowl is turning into one of my favorite bowls of the year. It always matches up Big 10 versus SEC teams. But top tier teams from each conference, not the stragglers that the Gator Bowl and others get. And, usually on paper the SEC team is supposed to be the dominant team. But looking back 20 years, the SEC is only 11-9 against the Big 10 here. And remember Michigan State’s shocking upset of Georgia last year? Oh, who am I kidding. Maybe in a normal year the Big 10 would have a chance here, but Michigan’s only in this game because half of the Big 10 isn’t bowl eligible. South Carolina runs all over the Wolverines.
Gambling angle: The Big-10 has covered seven of the last ten Outback bowl, but I’m bucking the trend here and taking South Carolina -5 and the under 48.
Capital One Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ABC
Georgia v. Nebraska
Another good Big 10/SEC match up here, but I don’t think I’ll like the results. Georgia nearly won the SEC Championship Game and Nebraska got bombed back to the stone age by Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship Game. Nebraska’s three losses were all away from Lincoln and two of those Husker fans are still trying to forget about (@ Ohio State and against Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship Game). Georgia beat Florida on a neutral field and nearly beat Alabama on a neutral field a few weeks later. And let’s not forget what South Carolina did to Nebraska in this very game last year. This may be it for Pelini.
Gambling angle: I hate to give up this many points, but let’s take Georgia -10. Five of the last seven have played under, and that seems appropriate with these defenses, so I like the under 57.
Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO – Jan. 1, 5:00pm EST ESPN
Stanford v. Wisconsin
Wisconsin’s back in the Rose Bowl for the third straight year (after losses the last two years to TCU and Oregon), but don’t fret over those five loses from the Badgers. All were close games and three of the losses were in O.T. And they’ve Barry Alvarez back as head coach, who is 3-0 in Pasadena. But, let’s take a look at Stanford. Their two losses were really close games as well, and they’ve reeled off five straight wins against five straight opponents. Wisconsin is too one dimensional. When they’re running downhill they’re unstoppable. But Stanford is about as physical a team you’ll find this year. Wisconsin loses yet another Rose Bowl.
Gambling angle: Favorites tend to do well in Pasadena, and I like Stanford -6.5, and the over 47, but just barely.
Discover Orange Bowl – Jan. 1, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Florida State v. Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois busted the BCS this year, and they’ve got some firepower on offense (40+/game). FSU brings one of the best defenses in the country to the Orange Bowl, but the difference here is this. Northern Illinois hasn’t played anyone. Well except for Iowa back on September 1st, and they lost that on 17-16. Florida State should, and will, blow them out. Or will they? Florida State looked bad against North Carolina State and Florida, and not great against Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship; or against Virginia Tech, South Florida, and Clemson. Hmmmmm. And remember what these little giants have done to the Big Boys in BCS Games? I like Northern Illinois to keep this one close, and if it’s close in the 4th quarter, anything can happen. Just ask Bob Stoops if he’d ever want to play Boise State again.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 7-2 against the spread and the under has hit seven out of ten, and with good reason. Some overvalued BCS teams against some undervalued opponents. Let’s take NIU +13.5 and the over 58 as their only chance is to get into a shootout with the Seminoles.
Allstate Sugar Bowl – Jan. 2, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Florida v. Louisville
Two years in a row and we’ve a dud of a Sugar Bowl. Louisville doesn’t belong here and Florida has a case to make that they deserve to be #2. That’s got the making of an ugly game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Florida’s defense scores more points than Louisville’s offense.
Gambling angle: Let’s take Florida -13.5 and the under 45, in a truly ugly game.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl – Jan. 3, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Oregon v. Kansas State
Let’s call this the National Championship that could’a been. Both teams controlled their own destiny but stumbled down the stretch. And both teams are victims of the “we’re not in the SEC.” Until the SEC loses the title, that’s sadly, not gonna change. Still, the Fiesta Bowl is in my Top-3 games to watch this bowl season. Both teams are pretty solid all around, but it’s both teams offenses that make the headlines. Kansas State will be able to slow down the Ducks in a way similar to what Stanford did, but I’m not sure they can hold them to 14, especially seeing how Texas Tech, Baylor, and Texas moved the ball at will against Kansas State late in the year. And, the Ducks defense is underrated this year, for a change. This will be another exciting Fiesta Bowl (if we can block out the memory of the UConn-Oklahoma snooze fest a couple years ago). Oregon in a shoot out!
Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered four of the last five Fiesta Bowls, but I can’t see Kansas State keeping up with Oregon for 48 minutes the way Stanford did. Let’s take Oregon -9 and the over 75.
AT&T Cotton Bowl – Jan. 4, 8:00pm EST FOX
Texas A&M v. Oklahoma
Once again the Cotton Bowl is played after the Orange and Sugar bowls this year, which is fitting as this is more of a BCS style match-up. Old Big 12 foes are at it, as Texas A&M surprised everyone in the SEC this year by beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa and bringing home the Heisman. Both teams average 40+ points/game and 500+ yards/game, so we know there’s gonna be a bunch of points, but as usual, I’ve gotta take the SEC over the Big-12, and A&M finishes their magical season with a win over their old rival.
Gambling angle: The SEC is 8-1 straight up over the Big-12 in this game. That will continue, and I like A&M -4.5; and the over has hit the last two here so I gotta take the over 71.5 with these two offenses.
BBVA Compass Bowl – Jan. 5, 1:00pm EST ESPN
Ole Miss v. Pitt
After 32 games we get Pittsburg
Gambling angle: Let’s take Ole Miss -3.5 and the under 52 (again, only because I’m picking lines and O/U’s on every game).
GoDaddy.com Bowl – Jan. 6, 9:00pm EST ESPN
Kent State v. Arkansas State
So we’ve seen the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl, and Sugar Bowl – so it must be time for the National Championship, right? Nope. The bowl formally known as the GMAC bowl is played on January 6th this year, and is one of three bowl games between the traditional big four and the championship. And, believe it or not, I’m actually okay with this. If we’re not going to have a playoff, but all means – let’s have games between Kent State and Arkansas State. At least we get a match-up of conference champions in this one; albeit the MAC and the Sunbelt. Arkansas State gets revenge against the MAC Champion this year.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 8-1-1 against the spread in this game, so let’s look to Arkansas State -4.5 and the over 62.
Discover BCS National Championship – Jan. 7, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Notre Dame v. Alabama
Two of the most storied traditions in college football history meet in the Championship. But they both got here on different paths. Alabama’s won two out of the last three Championships and were #1 in my preseason poll. Notre Dame hasn’t been relevant in nearly two years and wasn’t ranked at all in anyone’s polls. The Irish got here with defense, and luck. Alabama got here because the computers continue to have a soft spot for one-loss SEC teams; and why not? The SEC continues to dominate in this game. Notre Dame could easily get blown out in this game, but there were also a handful of games this year when that could’ve, and should’ve, happened. But it didn’t. The front seven of Notre Dame is unlike anything Alabama has faced this year. They keep Notre Dame in games, make plays, switch field position, and just don’t break, even when the Irish offense screws up and gives the opponent a short field. But, Saban is the best in the game at developing a game plan and preparing players. They’re only two losses the last two years were when the missed a bunch of FGs against LSU two years ago and when they got Manzieled (yes that’s a word) and fell down three TDs to A&M in the first quarter this year (and they could’ve easily won both those games). Notre Dame could’ve easily lost to Purdue, Stanford, Pitt, etc. I said it to Uncle Gene right when the match up was announced, and I’m sticking with it. Alabama 24 Notre Dame 13
Gambling angle: The SEC is 6-0 straight up and against the spread here, so gotta stick with that. Alabama -9.5 and the under 42.
Well, that’s it for 2012’s college football season! From all of the editors, statisticians, researchers, and other contributors at the Autumn Wind (oh wait – it’s just me): Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Until next time year….
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