Here’s Part I of the 6th annual edition of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview. I’ll break ‘em all down: 35 bowls, 70 teams, starting December 15th and ending January 7th, including some very intriguing match-ups in non-BCS bowls. Here’s the games, dates, times, TV coverage, and angles (for entertainment purposes only) up to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on December 31st. I’ll post the update for the real bowl games next week. Enjoy the last few weeks of the 2012-2013 college football season!
Gildan New Mexico Bowl – Dec. 15, 1:00pm EST ESPN
Arizona v. Nevada
A match-up of 7-5 teams start off the 2012-2013 bowl season, and on paper UofSuck has the advantage here. But, Nevada has a strong offense and UofSuck has had problems stopping people. Really no reason to watch this game unless 1) you’re bored, 2) you like seeing a half empty stadium in cold Albuquerque, or 3) you want to guess the over/under on how many times the announcers say that UofSuck has the leading rusher in the nation (the Autumn Wind puts that number at 8.5).
Gambling angle: This is the 7th New Mexico Bowl – and underdogs have not only covered, but won outright in four of the first six in this bowl series. In addition the over has hit in the last four. Let’s look for Nevada to cover the 9.5, perhaps winning outright, and even though the over is at 75, I think they’ll get there.
Famous Idaho
Utah State versus Toledo is another “yawn” game, right? In the words of Corso, not so fast!! Utah State had two loses (@ Wisconsin and @ BYU) by a total of five points. Toledo’s only loses were in O.T. to UofSuck, Ball State, and BCS bound Northern Illinois. These boys can play! Utah State lost a barn burning to Ohio last year in this same bowl, and I like for them to get their first bowl win in school history.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 4-2-1 against the spread the last seven here, and three of the past five played to the over; neither of which are strong trends. I like Utah State at -7.5, but let’s take the under 58.5 as Utah State brings the nation’s 8th best scoring defense.
San Diego State v. BYU
Old Mountain West rivals meet up again in this one, just one season after BYU bolted for some other conference, or independent status, or something. Other than the absurd name of this bowl, that’s about all the coverage I’m going to give it.
Gambling angle: The Mountain West has won the past six here, but last year TCU didn’t cover. Let’s look for that again, San Diego State wins, but doesn’t cover. BYU +2.5, down to the wire, and gotta take the under 49 as BYU has the 5th best scoring defense in the league.
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl – Dec 21, 7pm EST ESPN
Ball State v. UCF
If you don’t have anything better to do than watch this game, then go ahead and jump off of a cliff.
Gambling angle: This is the 5th Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, somehow it still keeps going. UCF should cover the -7, and I would think the under 61.5 is the play here, not that anyone will be watching.
R+L Carriers New Orleans
All you need to know about this one is that both teams love to throw it around and both teams suck at preventing the other team from doing that. Louisiana Lafayette should come out on top though – yes, Louisana-Lafayette, as in the team that nearly beat Florida, not the other 8-4 Louisiana- team that beat Arkansas and nearly beat Auburn. Keep your Louisiana “dash” teams separate please.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 5-2 in the past seven and five of the the past six have played over the total. Gotta buck the trend here though and take LA-LF -5.5 and gotta love the over at 67.
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl – Dec. 22, 3:30pm EST ESPN
Washington beat Stanford and Oregon State, and kept it close against Oregon (at least in the first half and USC. But, they also got blown out by LSU, UofSuck, and lost to horrible Washington State. Boise’s quietly 10-2 with their only loses against Michigan State in the opener, and San Diego State late. Boise’s defense will keep them in this game, and they don’t fall into the Vegas trap like so many other teams heading to Viva Las Vegas for this bowl.
Gambling angle: I like Boise -5.5; and with ten of the last 14 Vegas Bowl’s hitting the under (forget about Boise nearly hitting the over themselves last year), I like the under 46 as both offenses will struggle to score against some pretty good defenses.
Sheraton Hawaii
Southern Methodist v. Fresno State
As usual, tons of offense in the Hawaii Bowl, with both teams scoring over 30-40 a game, mostly through the air. Fresno State was a quiet 9-3, and SMU needed a win against Tulsa in the finale to become bowl eligible. Fresno State should win this one going away.
Gambling angle: Underdogs have won, and covered, three of the past four here (but that’s often when Hawaii’s been the “home” underdog), and seven of the last 10 have played over. I like SMU +11.5 and the over 59.5
Little Caesars Bowl – Dec. 26, 7:30pm EST ESPN
Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky
I like Little Caesars Pizza. That’s about all I’ll say about this game.
Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered four outta five and under total is 8-5 in last 13 Motor City…errrrr, Little Caesars Bowls. Central Michigan +5.5 and the under 58.5, I guess.
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman – Dec. 27 3:00pm EST ESPN
San Jose State v. Bowling Green
Nothing says Military Bowl like San Jose State and Bowling Green. San Jose State won 10 games, only losing to Stanford and Utah State. Bowling Green’s signature win was against Rhode Island, or Massachusetts. Seriously, what the hell are they doing in a bowl game?
Gambling angle: All four is this bowl’s history have played to the over; so I like the San Jose State -7.5 and the over 47.
Belk Bowl – Dec. 27, 6:30pm EST ESPN
Duke v. Cincinnati
The Belk Bowl should be changed this year to the “we’re used to underperforming in the post season” bowl – oh wait, we’re talking football here, not basketball. Cincy has won a share of the Big East for four straight seasons while Duke’s in a bowl game for the first time since 1994. Wait a minute. Cincy loses a tie breaker that would’ve sent them to a BCS game as Big East champ and instead they’re playing Duke in the Belk Bowl? That’s what’s wrong with college football, folks.
Gambling angle: Let’s take Cincy -7.5 and the under 58.5 (if you haven’t figured it out by now, this gambling “advice” is truly for entertainment purposes. Anyone who bets on this game needs to call 1-800-522-4700 immediately.
Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl – Dec. 28, 9:45pm EST ESPN
UCLA v. Baylor
Finally a bowl game with teams people have actually heard of. UCLA heads down the road to San Diego after losing back-to-backs to Stanford. Baylor’s 5th in the nation in scoring offense but 117th in scoring defense. Let’s get out the popcorn and have some fun!
Gambling angle: Interesting angle’s here: the PAC-10 doesn’t win (3-8 straight up), and favorites cover (11-3). Same story. I’ll take Baylor -1 and the over 74 as Baylor just can’t stop anyone.
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – Dec. 28, 2:00pm EST ESPN
Louisiana-Monroe v. Ohio
Everyone knows Lousiana-Monroe as the team that shocked Arkansas and then nearly beat Auburn and Baylor. Ohio is known as the team that beat Penn State in the opener and started off 7-0, but lost four out of their last five. That’s about all I care to say about this game as well. Louisiana-Monroe wins in their first ever bowl appearance.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 7-2 against the spread and the last three of the last four here played under. Let’s take Louisiana-Monroe -7 and the under 60, as both teams struggled down the stretch.
Russell Athletic Bowl – Dec. 28, 5:30pm ESPN
Virginia Tech v. Rutgers
Formerly the Champs Sports Bowl, it pits Rutgers (who started 9-1 and had a shot at a BCS bowl) against a Virginia Tech team that failed to win 10 games for the first time in nine years. Virginia Tech had all sorts of troubles scoring this year, and their usually reliable special teams were not very good either. And, Rutgers is a very good defensive team, only giving up about 14/game. The ACC has also struggled in this game against the Big East. The Scarlet Knights get the victory.
Gambling angle: The ACC is only 2-7 straight up in this game, and the under is 6-1 the past seven. I really like Rutgers +2.5 and the under 41.5.
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
Texas Tech v. Minnesota
The old Texas Bowl is now the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas. The Big 10 is so bad that Minnesota with a 2-6 conference record gets to travel to Texas to take on Tech in a pretty much home game. Tech will throw the ball all over the field and Minnesota can’t. Tech will score a lot, and Minnesota won’t. Pretty easy pick here for Texas Tech.
Gambling angle: I like Texas Tech -13, as favorites are 7-2-2 against the spread in this bowl; and I like the over 57 as well as three of the past five played over, and Minnesota will struggle to contain Tech’s offense but still be able to put up some points on Tech’s defense.
Air Force v. Rice
This is why I struggle with many of these bowl games. Rice started off 2-6 and is bowling. Air Force lost to Army and Navy, among others, but still almost beat Michigan in the Big House. I’ll watch this one because I like the Armed Forces TV commercials, and I like watching the triple option, especially against a crappy team like Rice.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 6-2 against the spread in this one, but this one is essentially a pick ‘em. The over/under has alternated eight of the last nine years, with last year’s predicted over missing by 1.5 points. I’ll take Air Force -1, and let’s take the under 61.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Dec. 29, 3:15pm EST ESPN
Syracuse v. West Virginia
West Virginia had preseason aspirations for both a Heisman trophy and a National Championship. But they needed a win late to become bowl eligible. Why? 116th in the nation in scoring defense says a lot. Folks are giving Syracuse a chance in this game, but keep in mind they lost to Minnesota and only beat Stony Brook by 11. Sure they beat Louisville, but everyone knows Louisville was overrated. West Virginia wins, and wins big.
Gambling angle: I’ll take West Virginia -4 and the over 73.5 (West Virginia may get that on their own).
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl – Dec. 29 4:00pm EST ESPN
Arizona State v. Navy
Navy started off 1-3, but finished 7-1, including wins over both Air Force and Army. ASU struggled in the middle of their PAC-12 schedule, losing four straight, but finished strong with wins over Washington State and UofSuck (the only one that matters). This one will be all about Navy’s rushing game against ASU’s run defense. Vegas likes the Sun Devils a lot, and so do I.
Gambling angle: Let’s look at ASU -14.5 (biggest spread of the bowl season) and the over 56.
Valero Alamo Bowl – Dec. 29, 6:45pm EST ESPN
Oregon State v. Texas
The Big 12 has owned the PAC-12 in recent history in this game which bodes well for Texas. Both teams stumbled down the stretch, but this one’s worth watching as it’s the first bowl game this year against ranked teams. Oregon State has the better resume, and Texas struggled down the stretch. Let’s go Beavers!
Gambling angle: Trends for both the spread and O/U are pretty even here, so I gotta go with my gut. Overall, the PAC-12 was better than the Big 12 this year, so I like Oregon State -2 and the under 56.5.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl – Dec. 29, 10:15pm EST ESPN
Michigan State v. TCU
The Insight Bowl is now the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. Michigan State is 10th in defense, but only 109th offense. That explains why they lost all their games (with the exception of Notre Dame) by one, three, two, four, and three, respectively. TCU did well in their first year in the Big 12, with wins over Baylor, West Virginia, and Texas; and close loses against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. A close game is gonna favor the Horned Frogs – gotta go with TCU.
Gambling angle: The over is 8-2 in this last ten here, and the Big-12 had won five straight of six v. Big-10. Gotta go with TCU -2.5 (as Michigan State always loses by a FG this year) and the over 41. Even though both defenses are strong, 41 is a low number, about as low as they get (in fact, it’s lower than the Alabama/ND O/U with is the matchup of the two best defenses in the game).
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Dec. 31, 12:00pm EST ESPN
Vanderbilt v. North Carolina State
I refuse to even acknowledge this game. Okay, the name of bowl is cool. That’s about it. (For those of you keeping track at home, I said the exact same thing about this game last year between
Gambling angle: I like Vandy -6.5 (favorites are 5-2-1 the last eight Music City bowls) and since eight of 11 have played under, I like the under 52.
Hyundai Sun Bowl – Dec. 31, 2:00pm EST CBS
Georgia Tech v. USC
Georgia Tech is back in the Sun Bowl again, but this time against a USC team that was the AP preseason #1 team (obviously the AP voters forget that Lame Kiffin can’t coach). Georgia Tech doesn’t even belong in this game, needing a waiver from the NCAA to get into a bowl game with a 6-7 record. They lost to Middle Tennessee by three TD’s for crying out loud.
Gambling angle: I’ll take USC -10 and the under 64.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Dec 31, 3:30pm EST ESPN
Tulsa v. Iowa State
September 1st – Tulsa v. Iowa State. December 31st – Tulsa v. Iowa State. At least this rematch isn’t a National Championship game. Iowa State won the first one, but Tulsa wins the rematch.
Gambling angle: The underdogs have covered seven out of eight here (doesn’t matter as this one’s a pick ‘em), and the under has hit nine out of the last 13. So, if I had to put action on this game, I’d take Tulsa in the pick ‘em and the under 51.5.
Chick-fil-A Bowl – Dec. 31, 7:30pm EST ESPN
LSU v. Clemson
In the last of the pre-New Year’s bowls, we have a matchup of ten win Tigers’ teams. Clemson’s only loses were to Florida State and South Carolina, and LSU’s only loses were to Alabama and Florida. That’s pretty impressive. We know the stats here – LSU plays great defense, but their offense has woken up as of late, and Clemson has scored on anyone and everyone – well, except for South Carolina. That’s enough of an indicator for me right there. The ACC just can’t compete with SEC defenses. LSU wins in a higher scoring game than many predict.
Gambling angle: The SEC is 5-2 straight up in the last seven here, so I like LSU -4; and the over 58.5 as both teams should be able to score.
Well that’s it for the pre-New Year’s Games!
Until next time…
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