Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Week 6 Recap and Week 7 Preview

Florida State, LSU, Georgia, and Texas all went down this weekend; which makes teams like Oklahoma and USC very happy. Better to lose early than late. Alabama and Oregon’s grip on #1 and #2 is very solid right now, and I can’t have West Virginia at #3 with how bad their defense is. So, South Carolina it is at #3, even though they have to go to LSU this weekend and host Florida the following week. Looking ahead to this weekend; there’s a bunch of trap games to look out for – Kansas State @ Iowa State (looking ahead to WVU), West Virginia @ Texas Tech (emotional win @ Texas, looking ahead to K State), Florida @ Vandy (emotional win v. LSU, looking ahead to South Carolina), and Alabama @ Missouri (looking ahead to @ Tennessee, v. Mississippi State, @ LSU, and v. A&M).

Here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 6 Top-10 recap:

1. While it wasn’t the good ole days of the “Catholics versus the Convicts”, I always enjoy seeing Notre Dame beat Miami. The Irish are the only team in college football that have yet to trail in a game this season. #2 in scoring defense, very few turnovers on offense, lots of forced turnovers on defense, and an incredible front seven on defense have the Irish 5-0 for the first time in 10 years. I do miss Lou Holtz though – remember when he said this before that epic Notre Dame v. Miami game in the late 80s? “After we win the game, if Miami wants to fight, fine, we'll meet 'em in the alley. And if they do, you save Jimmy Johnson's butt for me."

2. Georgia got down right thumped by South Carolina. How good is South Carolina’s defense? Well, I wouldn’t put it up there with Alabama, yet; but they held the SEC’s #1 offense to just over 200 yards of offense, and were a garbage time touchdown away from shutting out the Bulldogs who were averaging 48/game. Impressive, impressive win for Spurrier and company. Can they have a repeat performance this weekend in Death Valley?

3. That USC loss to Stanford seems so long ago. The Trojans have three more cupcakes before the November 3rd matchup with Oregon. Assuming they don’t blow it @ Washington this weekend, USC will likely be back in the top 7 or so by that big game.

4. Florida’s defense, especially their second half defense, is the main reason the Gators are 5-0. LSU didn’t have a chance; and once again, their offense was exposed. The Tigers need to pick up the pieces quick as South Carolina comes to town this weekend. LSU’s defense will keep them in games, but they’ve gotta find a way to put points on the board.

5. Now that’s the Florida State team I’ve gotten to know over the past few years. Both Florida State and Oklahoma get the award for the last several years titled: “You lost to who?”

6. Missouri dropped to 0-3 in the SEC after losing to Vandy. I think Vandy is probably the happiest school in the SEC these days; knowing they won’t share the basement alone anymore.

7. Speaking of conference winless teams….UofSuck is 0-3 in the PAC-12. Even Colorado has a PAC-12 victory.

8. The Big 10 is so bad that the top 2 teams in the league aren’t eligible for post-season play. I think Minnesota still has a chance at getting to the Big 10 Championship.

9. No one’s gonna say that West Virginia has a good defense, but with their system, it works. With an efficient, quick-strike offense, it just means your defense is going to be on the field a lot. It’s almost like a reverse of what’s common football knowledge – WVU wants their defense out there to give their offense a rest. But, a dangerous trap game this weekend, in Lubbock, against Texas Tech, before the huge matchup the following week with Kansas State.

10. It’s not good when you score 38 and lose by 25. Yes, Nebraska, I’m looking at you…

Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:

Top-10:

#1 Alabama (5-0) – The Tide haven’t given up more than 14 points in any game this year. If that sticks, they’re the champs. Again.

#2 Oregon (6-0) – Bye week this week before traveling to the desert next Thursday.

#3 South Carolina (6-0) – Best South Carolina team I’ve seen.

#4 West Virginia (5-0) – You should be #3, and will be soon once South Carolina loses one of its next two (or both?), but I just can’t have you there now. Beat K State and we’ll talk.

#5 Kansas State (5-0) – Don’t forget about Iowa State this weekend! Gotta win that one first before the West Virginia game means anything.

#6 Notre Dame (5-0) – Can you finally beat Stanford for once?

#7 Florida (5-0) – Didn’t see this one coming…

#8 LSU (5-1) – Things can change in a hurry in the SEC. For the good, or the bad.

#9 USC (4-1) – If you’d quit turning the ball over, you’d still be in the top 5.

#10 Oregon State (4-0) – This is probably the worst Top 10 team I’ve had, but I just couldn’t think of anyone else to put here. At least beat BYU, please.

Rising Fast:

Florida – Didn’t see this coming. But look out @ Vandy this weekend – trap game – with South Carolina coming to the Swamp the following weekend.

Falling Faster:

Florida State – Getting shut out in the second half and losing to unranked NC State is not making the case that you belonged in the top 2.

Heisman Watch:

Geno Smith, West Virginia – Is this guy ever gonna throw an interception?

BCS Title Game Prediction:

Alabama v. Oregon – Clearly the two best teams in football, though South Carolina may disagree.

Week 7 Big Games:

Stanford @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame has lost three straight versus Stanford, but the Irish haven’t given up a touchdown in three games. The bottom line for this game is if Notre Dame’s front seven can keep the pressure on Stanford. Otherwise, those huge tight ends could have a huge day. Notre Dame’s offense will be able to move the ball, but they need touchdowns and not field goals. How will Stanford be emotionally after a big overtime victory and then having to travel to the chilly Midwest? I like Notre Dame in a squeaker 24 to 21

West Virginia @ Texas Tech – Dust off the extra scoreboard lights again. We know WVU will score, but Tech has a powerful offense as well. Like I said last week, WVU is going to run into a team that has both a good enough offense to put up points, but also a good enough defense to sorta slow down Geno and company. But it’s not this week. West Virginia 48 Texas Tech 34

Texas v. Oklahoma – The Red River shootout is here, and nobody seems to care. Oklahoma wins 34-24.

Texas A&M @ Louisiana Tech – Yes, this is a big game. Both teams are ranked, and Louisiana Tech actually has the longest winning streak in the country right now at 12.Grab some extra scoreboard bulbs as well here – two top 10 offenses square off, but the problem is LT is 109th in the country in scoring defense. Yikes. A&M 44 LT 38

Week 6 Game of the Week:

South Carolina @ LSU – South Carolina has struggled away from home, and Death Valley at night will be a little different than games at Vandy and Kentucky. We know both defenses will come to play, so expect a slow paced, low scoring game. The question is whether or not LSU can find any offense. South Carolina is the better team overall, and unless they have a massive meltdown, I see them winning a huge game on the road (and possibly jumping Oregon in the initial BCS standings) 17-13.



Until next time…

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