Here’s why I hate the BCS. Two weeks ago, Oregon destroys Washington State and loses a spot in the standings because Florida State destroyed Clemson. Now, Oregon beats up on UCLA and all FSU does is clobber the NC State team that beat ‘em last year, and now FSU drops a spot. Get it together BCS; it’s not a “what have you done for me lately?” or “how bad did you beat a team you’re supposed to beat” ranking system. But, thankfully, it’s almost over. Speaking of almost over, the race to the Championship is down to pretty much four teams – Oregon, Ohio State, Alabama, and Florida State. All four took care of business with no problems this weekend, and if all four remain unbeaten, it would be a shame if 1) Oregon and Alabama don’t play (as they should’ve been the two to play last year; sorry, Notre Dame) and 2) we don’t have the four team playoff this year. And to prove how ridiculous the BCS ranking system is, I predict FSU will once again jump over Oregon because FSU has undefeated Miami and Oregon has a bye.
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 9 Top-10 recap:
1. Would whoever had Duke beating Virginia Tech and Minnesota beating Nebraska in your weekly pool please stand up. Thought so.
2. Miami remains unbeaten, but has been living dangerously the last couple of weeks; needing last minute scores to beat North Carolina and Wake Forest. That’s fine and dandy against teams with a combined 3-6 record in the ACC, but now you have to travel to Tallahassee. Looks like Miami is the next unbeaten to drop.
3. Baylor keeps rolling, yet they failed to score at least 69 for only the second time. They’re offense leads the nation in points (64/game), and they’ve only given up 16/game. The problem with Baylor is that we’re nine weeks into the season and they still haven’t played anyone. Their toughest competition so far has been either Kansas State or West Virginia – both of which have losing records. But that’s all gonna change. Enjoy your bye week Baylor. After that you get Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Texas. It’s quite possible you could lose all five of those. Okay, maybe not TCU. But here we are in week 10, and the Big12 has five teams with one loss or less in the conference. Seems like the scheduling has worked out for a mini-Big12 Championship playoff over the next few weeks.
4. Missouri’s dream season came to an abrupt end after leading South Carolina 17-0 after three quarters. Injured QB Shaw comes into the game and leads South Carolina on an amazing fourth quarter comeback on the road. And these weren’t short drives; all three scoring drives went 60+ yards. The look on the faces in the crowd after Missouri missed the 24 yard extra point length FG in O.T. said it all. Regardless, Mizzou still has the upper hand to win the SEC-East, but they need to beat Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and ol’ Big 12 rival Texas A&M.
5. As much as I love Stanford this year, and what they’ve done with their program the last several years, I’m still scratching my head as to how they’re basically ranked the same as they would be if they hadn’t lost to 4-4 Utah. Don’t get me wrong, Stanford is a great team, and has a very favorable schedule here on out (both Oregon and Notre Dame at the Farm); but are they the best one loss team in the country? Clemson and Oklahoma would surely disagree.
6. Was LSU really only ahead of Furman 20-16 at halftime? You’re not going to beat Alabama at that rate.
7. Both Fresno State and Northern Illinois stayed undefeated and have eyes on busting the BCS. Fresno’s gonna have to get by Boise State (again) in the Mountain West Championship game, and Northern Illinois is going to have to beat Ball State and Toledo (combined record 13-4) to even get to the MAC Championship, likely against Buffalo. But at #16 and 17 they’re both in a pretty good position right now with lots of teams above them that are going to lose a time or two before it is all said and done.
8. Obscure stats of the week. With a five TD performance against Air Force, Tommy Rees is now third in passing TD’s in Irish history (bumping Powlus to fourth) and now has the same number of wins at Theisman and Lujak. Pretty impressive for a guy that’s really never even been the starter; just more of a “well, I guess we need a QB – hey Tommy, what’cha doing today?” Sidebar on Powlus – I still dislike Chris Collingsworth for saying that Powlus was gonna win the Heisman four times after his first start when he threw four TDs against a crappy Northwestern game. “Step out of the way, Joe Montana” was the quote, I believe. Nice prediction, Chris.
9. The Big 12 doesn’t really want a champion this year it seems. Tech was the latest victim to go down (to Oklahoma), and now it’s just Texas and Baylor at the top. But that’s all gonna change soon with how stacked the Big 12 schedule is at the end of the year. I think Oklahoma probably has the best chance to come away with it, but don’t count out Baylor and that dangerous offense that has their fans saying RG-Who?
10. Oregon had some turnovers and played pretty sloppy in the first half against UCLA. But, they were tied, where as just about any other team would’ve been down by two to three scores. Then they went on the patented Ducks run. I’m not sure there’s a team out there (including Alabama, Ohio State, or even FSU) that has the ability to 1) hold the Ducks under 40 in a big game, and 2) play fast enough to score enough to score more than them. Kinda like Stanford did last year, LSU and USC the year before (okay, the USC game was kind of a shootout), and Auburn did in the championship game three years ago. But, I just don’t see that happening this year. They’re just really firing on all cylinders and have a week off to prep for revenge against Stanford, a team that’s looking more and more beatable as the year goes on.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (8-0) – First big test passed. Now on to the Farm.
#2 Ohio State (8-0) – I don’t see a loss coming.
#3 Alabama (8-0) – Yet another >40 to <14 win.
#4 Florida State (7-0) – Can you beat Miami twice? You may have to.
#5 Clemson (7-1) – Needs to finish strong to get a (deservedly so) at large BCS bid.
#6 Stanford (6-1) – The thing that worries me is you like to keep games close against everyone.
#7 Miami (7-0) – Sorry, ‘Canes, I’m not a believer.
#8 Baylor (7-0) – Still not sure whether or not to believe. We’ll know more soon.
#9 Oklahoma (7-1) – The Big 12 is still yours if you want it.
#10 LSU (7-2) – Problem is, even if you beat Alabama, you’ll lose to A&M the following week.
Rising Fast:
Minnesota and Duke – Both are bowl eligible in October!
Falling Faster:
Nebraska – Losing to UCLA is one thing. Losing to Minnesota for the first time in 50+ years is something else.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota – Not great statistics against UCLA, but they did what Boyd couldn’t do. Win when it matters. Now, the November 7th game @ Stanford will decide whether or not you win it. This is your Johnny Football moment.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Alabama still has LSU, Auburn, and the SEC Championship (South Carolina?). FSU has Miami (maybe twice) and Florida. Oregon has Stanford, Oregon State, and probably UCLA again. Ohio State has Michigan (maybe twice). See where I’m going with this whole “Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game” thing? Their road is much easier.
Week 10 Big Games:
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech – Two really even matched teams square off in one. Oklahoma State has looked better since its bizarre loss to West Virginia, while Tech is coming out of a shootout with Oklahoma where they came up just short. Oklahoma State is gonna give up points, and Tech is at home. That should be just enough to squeak out a victory for the Red Raiders: 37 to 34.
Michigan @ Michigan State – Michigan State can pretty much wrap up the Legends division with a victory over the Wolverines. Despite both teams only having one loss; neither has been very impressive. Michigan State’s at home, but Michigan is the much better team. Let’s pick Michigan to win 27 to 17.
Week 10 Game of the Week:
Miami @ Florida State – This match-up kind of reminds me of this week’s Sunday Night Football game between the Packers and the Vikings. Old rivals, lots of odd finishes over the years; but ultimately reality sets in and you realize: where is Miami (Vikings) going to generate enough offense to keep up with the Seminoles (Packers)? Miami is having a good run, and may get FSU again in the ACC Championship game, but they just don’t have enough on either side of the ball to win this one. Florida State 41 Miami 27.
Until next time…
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