Week 5 in the books, and not much has changed: Alabama found its defense and USC is still 100% behind Lame Kiffin (or not). Please Nebraska, please. Don’t even consider it.
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 5 Top-10 recap:
1. Alabama’s defense was very impressive in the 25-0 win over Ole Miss, but the same thing that plagued Alabama two years ago showed its face again. Failure to convert drives into points. Kicking FG won’t cut it against LSU; their last big game before a potential SEC Championship, and it comes after a bye. Georgia State and Chattanooga are still on the schedule? Really?
2. What’s impressed me more about Oregon this year compared to previous years is how they’re putting away teams early. They’d always go on their patented 3-4 TD run, but sometimes it wouldn’t happen until the 3rd or even 4th quarters. Now it is happening in the 1st quarter. A good test is going to be to see how Washington deals with Stanford this weekend and Oregon next weekend. If I were to game plan against Oregon, it would be this: I’d go for it on 4th down every time (unless it was 20+ yards). An 80 yard field is actually easier for the Ducks than a 25 yard field. I’d on-side kick following every score, even though they’d know it’s coming after the first and second time. The only way to beat Oregon is to increase your chances of having way more possessions than in a normal game. I dare Washington to try that. UCLA too. Stanford can potentially slow things down like they did last year, but I don’t see a loss on the Ducks schedule.
3. While Alabama tried to regain the SEC’s defensive reputation, the rest of the conference has not. Sure, there’s some incredible offenses out there, but the defenses are just horrible: A&M, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, etc., I’m looking at you.
4. Call it looking ahead, or call it something that happens every year, but Florida State is better than a 3-point first quarter against Boston College. Sure they’ve Maryland and Clemson coming up, but to be considered a serious National Championship contender, you can’t really struggle with a team that only scored seven points against USC.
5. With Oklahoma State’s loss at Morgantown, the Big-12 is wide open. Seven teams have a legitimate shot at winning the conference, and it appears right now that Oklahoma is the team to beat. But don’t count out Baylor, Tech, WestbyGod, TCU, Okie State, and even Texas.
6. The big difference between this year’s Notre Dame squad, and last year’s is that the offense has been putting the Irish in bad positions all year. You can’t spot Oklahoma 14 points in the first two minutes as a result of crappy offense, and not come close to stopping Michigan at all, and still expect the defense to work miracles. Rees is probably on pace to set records for worst completion % of all time (currently sitting at 53%).
7. Stanford rolling on all cylinders after looking flat against San Jose State and Army. The defense (specifically against the rush) is one of the best in the nation, and the offense continues to be efficient with both the run and the pass. Let’s see how they do against Washington this weekend in a revenge game – remember Washington upset Stanford last year in an ugly game.
8. The Buckeyes survived against Wisconsin, and I still think they’ll finish #2 in the country if they win out. Will they have a hangover game @ Northwestern this weekend? Hmmmm, I wonder what the first hlaf spread is? And, if Georgia is the best one loss team in the country, Wisconsin is by far the best two loss team in the country – the should’a-been-a-victory against ASU, and a close road loss at the Horseshoe.
9. ASU scored 42 in the 2nd half against USC. Lame Kiffin was greeted at the gate after the flight home to be fired in person. I wonder when he saw them on the tarmac if he was thinking the AD and President were still 100% behind him? ASU has certainly found its offense. In the last six quarters, they’ve put up 90 points against Stanford and USC, and this weekend they have the national spotlight against Notre Dame.
10. Five weeks in, and the game of the weeks have been great every week (unless you turned off the ASU/Stanford game at half-time last weekend). Georgia/LSU was another wonderful match-up of two really talented well-coached teams. After Georgia scored with a shade under two minutes left, I thought “uh oh” – this one really had the feeling of “last one with the ball, wins.” Georgia came up with a key stop, and Georgia continues to be the best one loss team in the country, with their sights set on a rematch with Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (4-0) – The Ducks liked playing in the rain? Shocking…
#2 Ohio State (5-0) – Passed test #1.
#3 Stanford (4-0) – If they spank Washington like they spanked UofSuck, look out Ducks!
#4 Alabama (4-0) – Okay, you’re good, we get that.
#5 Louisville (12-0) – Played anyone yet?
#6 Clemson (4-0) – Remember us?
#7 Georgia (3-1) – Oh to have that Clemson game back…
#8 Florida State (2-0) – Look out for the Fighting Turtles!
#9 Oklahoma (4-0) – I guess you’re the best in the Big 12. For now.
#10 LSU (4-1) – You’re loss was to the best one loss team in football; and you had the ball last in a shootout against a crappy defense where you could’a won it. Would’a, could’a, should’a.
Rising Fast:
Baylor – First in nation in scoring at 70/game and second in the nation in scoring defense at 7.7/game. Okay, sure, they’ve only played Wofford, Buffalo, and Louisiana-Monroe; but – look at their next four: West Virginia, @ Kansas State, v. Iowa State, and @ Kansas. They’ll be 7-0 (and maybe still averaging 70/game) when Oklahoma comes to town on November 7th.
Falling Faster:
USC – Nothing makes me happier than USC sucking it up and Kiffin out of a job. UConn’s looking for a coach, Lane!
Heisman Watch:
Tajh Boyd, Clemson – 311 yards, 3 TDs, and QBR of 91.0. In three quarters.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – It’s all coming together…now, LSU just needs to beat Alabama then lose to A&M the next game, and then A&M needs to lose to Ole Miss this weekend, and then Georgia needs to lose to Florida, and then….wait a minute; how exactly is the SEC Champion not going to get in the BCS Championship again? Oops.
Week 6 Big Games:
Maryland @ Florida State – Maryland is 4-0 and shut out West Virginia (who then beat Big 12 favorite Oklahoma Stat). Florida State looked great until they actually played someone, and then they found themselves in a hole against Boston College. This is the makings of a trap game with Florida State @ Clemson next. But, they have a bye week after this, so not a true trap. Florida State will struggle early again, but pull away in the end: FSU 31 Maryland 20.
Arizona State v. Notre Dame – At the beginning of the season, this one looked winnable for Notre Dame. Not anymore. ASU has been impressive on offense, even in their loss to Stanford, and their defensive line – led by Will Sutton – is going to force Tommy Rees into even more mistakes. ASU 34 Notre Dame 27
Ohio State @ Northwestern – Northwestern is a little overvalued. Sure, they’re 4-0, but that’s been against Cal, Syracuse, Western Michigan, and Maine. But, GameDay’s coming to town, and Ohio State is going to be a little flat early on after the big win against Wisconsin. Northwestern will jump ahead early, but they’re just not in the same picture as Ohio State. Buckeyes roll in the 2nd half: Ohio State 41 Northwestern 31.
Week 6 Game of the Week:
Washington @ Stanford – Revenge game for Stanford, but Washington is also better than they were last year. But, Washington just doesn’t play that well away from home. Stanford’s similar to last year’s Notre Dame team, in that their front seven control the game; but their offense hasn’t missed much of beat since Luck and the crew of NFL tight ends and backs left. Stanford with a big win: 31 to 17.
Until next time…
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