I led last week’s Autumn Wind with this: “The giants will fall – it’s just a matter of when, to whom, and who’s left standing at the end.” Well, the madness that is the end of the college football season has officially started. Stanford, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Michigan all went down, and A&M was trying to figure out a way to lose. And this weekend we’ve a very good UCF team @ Louisville (who hasn’t looked that impressive the last couple of weeks), Florida @ 6-0 Mizzou, undefeated UCLA traveling to the Farm to face a pissed off Stanford team, and of course Florida State at Clemson. The Top-10 was pretty much unchanged until this weekend. Safe to say we’re gonna see some changes again. With the exception of Oregon and Alabama who are both once again 4+ TD favorites.
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 7 Top-10 recap:
1. Texas finally showed up for the Red River Rivalry and took down Oklahoma. Mack Brown has saved his job for now, and don’t look now, but Texas is tied atop the Big 12. Not a bad place to be after week 7. But, it’s been proven so far that no one really wants to win the Big 12, so don’t be surprised if Baylor or Texas Tech wind up winning the conference and their BCS bowl spot.
2. Georgia was living dangerously with that crappy defense all year, and with all of the injuries and with running up against a red hot Missouri team, their number was up. Is Missouri going to compete for the SEC and the BCS? No. Did they actually help sort things out by beating Georgia? Yes. We no longer have to look at Georgia as the best one loss team out there. And, very impressive start by Missouri.
3. Call it a look-ahead game, or call it trouble in the making, but Clemson barely getting by Boston College is not a good sign coming up on the big weekend against Florida State. But, a win is a win no matter what; something Oklahoma, Michigan, Georgia, and Stanford would agree with.
4. Georgia’s loss to Missouri and Florida’s loss to LSU has South Carolina saying “remember us?” The Gamecocks seem to be playing better since they’re not in the spotlight anymore, but that’s soon to change. Maybe Clowney will quit being a baby and start playing like a pro? Otherwise, I think his draft stock is falling faster than….well, I promised years ago, I’d try to keep politics out of the Autumn Wind; so just insert either the House GOP or Obama’s approval rating. Oops. I went there.
5. Speaking of oops, Stanford ran into its match @ Utah. Let’s not be mistaken here, this was an upset, but not a huge one. Utah was only a nine point dog, and they play a similar style as Stanford. I was very high on Stanford this year, but after struggling against Army, and nearly letting ASU come back from a huge deficit, it was clear they weren’t going to compete for a National Championship. They can, however, play spoiler once again, to Oregon in the PAC-12 North.
6. But, Oregon shows no signs of slowing down. And while Washington gave them a game through three quarters, the Ducks finally had to play a fourth quarter; and wound up running away with it again. Oregon is licking its chops (do ducks have chops?) for a match-up against Alabama in the Championship.
7. Despite giving up 42 to A&M, Alabama is back in familiar territory; 2nd in the NCAA in scoring defense and once again in the Top-10 in total defense. I still think LSU is going to beat Alabama, or if not, South Carolina in the SEC Championship, but I do admit that Saban has taken this team to new levels. After the 2010 Championship team, Saban admitted the following year failures were his fault, and that he wouldn’t let that happen again. All he’s done (well, the team) is rattle off two more titles and in contention for a third straight. It’s good to be a Tide fan. But wait, isn’t the third weekend in October coming up?
8. The Michigan & Penn State game was an instant classic, and while Michigan was another undefeated team to lose this weekend, it’s almost like the pollsters saw it coming. The Wolverines kept beating everyone, but never really moved up in the polls. The Penn State program is rebounding incredibly well from the sanctions put in place after that awful situation that I’d rather not talk about.
9. Georgia was living dangerously all year with that great offense, but offensive defense. Now that they’ve lost twice, I declare A&M the new Georgia; they’re flirting with trouble. Sure, it’s fun to watch that offense put up points and come from behind, but eventually, they’ll run into trouble with a defense that can’t stop anyone. Hmmmm….November 23rd @ LSU?
10. Speaking of the Tigers, LSU’s win over Florida wasn’t impressive, but they got the job done. A win is a win, is a win. And LSU has shown they can win shoot-outs (well, except against Georgia), and tight, tough defense match-ups. I know declare you the best one loss team in the country.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (6-0) – Big win on the road.
#2 Ohio State (6-0) – Only 16.5 favorites against Iowa?
#3 Alabama (6-0) – Yeah, yeah; don’t worry, if you take care of business, you’ll be in the Top 2.
#4 Louisville (12-0) – Watch out for UCF!
#5 Clemson (6-0) – Are you about to be the best one loss team in the country?
#6 Florida State (5-0) – If you pull off the victory in Death Valley (sorry LSU), I’m a believer.
#7 LSU (6-1) – I’ve got you beating Alabama, so I gotta get you climbing the polls now.
#8 Texas A&M (5-1) – Imagine if you could’a stopped Alabama once or twice?
#9 Miami (5-0) – Uh, ACC is the second best conference? Where did that come from?
#10 UCLA (5-0) – But, you gotta beat Stanford this weekend, which I’m not sure you can do.
Rising Fast:
Missouri – Where did this come from?
Falling Faster:
Georgia – A ton of injuries, a horrid defense, and an even worse schedule finally caught up with you.
Heisman Watch:
Tajh Boyd, Clemson – Marriota is really sneaking up on you. Can you get another signature win against FSU?
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Sticking with it, and hoping Ohio State loses here soon so we can get the Alabama/Oregon match-up we should’ve had last year.
Week 8 Big Games:
Florida @ Missouri – Florida has its share of injuries, but Missouri’s starting QB is out. Florida’s defense is light years better than Georgia, and Missouri will come out flat after that huge upset last weekend. Gators stay in contention in the SEC East: 27 to 24.
UCLA @ Stanford – UCLA is the undefeated team here; not Stanford. But, Stanford is back at home, and has owned UCLA recently; beating them last year to end the season and turning right around and beating them again in the inaugural PAC-12 Championship. Stanford is the type of team that gives UCLA fits. Kinda like Nebraska, but with an actual defense (sorry, Huskers). Stanford gets back on track: 30 to 24.
Auburn @ Texas A&M – Auburn’s a surprising 5-1, but they really haven’t played anyone other than LSU. A&M is fourth in the nation in scoring, but only 96th in scoring defense. Auburn will score, but they won’t be able to stop Johnny and company. Heck, Auburn gave up 24 to Washington State. A&M will get at least 50. Texas A&M 52 Auburn 27.
Week 8 Game of the Week:
Florida State @ Clemson – Maybe the game of the year so far; with both Florida State and Clemson avoiding their usual random upsets. Florida State comes in fresh off a bye, while Clemson comes in after a struggle against Boston College. Florida State has a much better defense, and Boyd has his match with FSU’s youngster QB Winston. FSU gets the win and propels into the National Championship debate: 45 to 41.
Until next time…
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