Baylor falters and there was much cheering in Ohio. But, the Buckeyes still need to beat the teams from Michigan and hope for some help. Florida may now only be the sixth best team in state of Florida, and we’ve got our match-ups set for the Big 10 and PAC-12 Championship games. Fresno and Northern Illinois are still trying to crash the party, and several one loss teams are still saying “don’t forget about us!” It’s down to the final couple weeks!
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 13 Top-10 recap:
1. Yet another shutout for Alabama (okay, it was only Chattanooga, but still) and yet another Tide defense leading the league is fewest points allowed at just under 10. Heck, take out the A&M game earlier in the season and Alabama’s only giving up six points a game. You’re just not going to lose with a defense like that. But, I still have FSU ranked ahead of them, as they won’t hold FSU to six, or 10, or maybe even 42. Though, Saban preps for the big one like no other, and if Alabama wants to three-peat, they have three big ones in a row: Iron Bowl, SEC Championship, and BCS Championship.
2. Duke came from behind to beat Wake Forest and now has to beat North Carolina (even Dick Vitale couldn’t have scripted this better) to get to 10 wins and to win the ACC-Coastal.
3. Arizona State’s defense was so tired at the end of the UCLA game that they couldn’t get down in their stance, rush the QB, or even fake an injury to slow down the Bruin offense. But, they did make a couple key plays on back-to-back drives and the Sun Devils clinch that PAC-12 South. If they beat UofSuck this weekend, they’ll host their rematch against Stanford; if not, it’s back to the Farm.
4. So Florida last at home to Georgia Southern. It was their first loss ever to an FCS team, and the Gators have now lost six straight (after being ranked in many peoples' pre-season Top-10). They’re only 1-2 against non-conference teams (soon to be 1-3 when FSU tries to hang a 100 on them) and only 3-5 against the SEC (and that’s because Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas are a combined 1-20 in SEC play; so much for SEC top-to-bottom dominance, eh?). But, check out these stats: Georgia Southern turned it over twice, missed two extra points, completed zero passes (that’s right, zero!), and still won at the Swamp. At least the Gators get to close with FSU who’s still looking for style points. Gulp.
5. After watching Oregon get humiliated by UofSuck, I came to the realization that the Ducks are like a young LeBron James. They have everything needed to win-it-all, except something is missing. Football is easy when you’re scoring 5+ points and blowing people out, but faced with a little adversity and someone willing to hit you in the jaw and Oregon’s crumbled. Whether it’s been against Stanford the last two years, or Auburn in the Championship three years ago, Oregon hasn’t been able to win the games they need to win to put them over the top. But, they’re not a one-shot wonder either. They’ve built a great program, and I do think in the next couple of years they’re going to figure it out.
6. Eight of the 19 Top-25 teams that played this weekend scored 47 or more, and then toss in some unranked teams that went for 58, 80, 45, 49, 59, and 69, and it’s clear that there’s no shortage of offensive output out there. Yet, the Top 3 teams in the country are #1, #2, and #8 in fewest points allowed. Offenses are exciting, but defenses still win championships.
7. Notre Dame’s Jekyll and Hyde season continues. With nothing left to play for (they’re headed to the New Era Pinstripe Bowl regardless), they put together maybe their best effort of the season by beating a pretty good BYU team. Notre Dame has beaten Michigan State and Arizona State (teams that will be representing their divisions in their Conference Championships), a really good USC team (their only loss since they fired Kiffen), and close with Stanford (who will likely win the PAC-12). I don’t think their chances of beating Stanford are good, but it makes you wonder about this team with its quality wins coupled with losses to Pitt and Michigan; and near losses to Navy and Purdue. And of course they got blown out by Oklahoma, who blew out Texas, who lost to the BYU team that Notre Dame just beat.
8. LSU improved to 2-0 against A&M since they joined the SEC, and this stat tells it all: time of possession – LSU: 40:19 A&M 19:41. It’s pretty easy to beat A&M when they’re offense isn’t on the field. I’m predicting a big shake-up in A&M in the offseason with Manziel going the NFL and Sumlin going to USC. But, hey, it was fun while it lasted.
9. November – where spread offenses go to die. We saw it this weekend with Baylor and Oregon looking downright crappy on offense. I don’t know if it’s the long, grueling season; more prep time for defensive coordinators; or back loaded schedules; but November hasn’t been kind to these types of offenses.
10. There are many other rivalry games that aren’t going to be highlighted coming up this weekend but still are worth a mention: The Apple Cup, the Civil War, the Territorial Cup, The Game, The Golden Boot, Battle for the Sunshine State, Clean Ole Fashioned Hate, and The Egg Bowl (and probably a few that I missed). It’s one of my favorite weekends of the year because quite often, the teams that shouldn’t win wind up winning and messing up the end of the season for their rival. I’m sure we’ll see a bunch of upsets this week as well.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Florida State (11-0) – How much longer can the cops drag out their investigation? Oh, probably ‘till mid-January.
#2 Alabama (11-0) – Better record now than the previous two years of your Championship run.
#3 Ohio State (11-0) – Haven’t lost in two years and still no love.
#4 Clemson (10-1) – Need to break the losing streak to South Carolina to get a BCS bid.
#5 Auburn (10-1) – Still an outside chance at the BCS Championship; but very realistic. Beat ‘Bama and A&M/South Carolina, Clemson loses to South Carolina, and Ohio State loses to Michigan or Michigan State, and you’re in!
#6 Oklahoma State (10-1) – It took awhile, but I think my pick to win the Big-12 is finally going to pay off.
#7 Missouri (10-1) – Not as clean of a road as Auburn, but one loss SEC teams have precedent.
#8 Baylor (9-1) – Oops.
#9 South Carolina (9-2) – How the hell did you lose to Tennessee?
#10 Fresno State (10-0) – Rematch with Boise State in the MVC Championship approacheth. Take the over.
Rising Fast:
Arizona State – Clinches the PAC-12 South and gets a rematch with Stanford; at home, if they can beat UofSuck. Of course they should, which, given the history of this series, means they won’t.
Falling Faster:
Oregon – You would’ve though the Ducks would’ve been used to playing in the rain; figuratively and literally.
Heisman Watch:
A.J. McCarron, Alabama – The National writers are starting to lean this way as well.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Alabama v. Florida State – The game every one wants to see. I’m still thinking FSU -6.5.
Week 14 Big Games:
Texas A&M @ Missouri – Missouri wins the SEC-East with a win, or Texas A&M can play spoiler and vault South Carolina into the SEC Championship. Who predicted that at the beginning of the year? A&M has been rattled and beaten all year by good teams, and Missouri is a good team. Look for their winning ways to continue: 38 to 31.
Clemson @ South Carolina – This is the first Top-10 match-up in 111 meetings between these longtime rivals. Lots of people seem to be picking South Carolina in this one. They’ve dominated the series as of late winning four straight, but let’s take a closer look at South Carolina. They lost to Tennessee (UT’s only SEC win), only beat Florida by five and Kentucky by 7; and needed a Willis Reed type miracle from Conner Shaw to beat Missouri in overtime. But, Clemson’s resume isn’t much better: they beat Georgia to open the season and got clobbered by Florida State. That’s about it. Still, you know Clemson (specifically Boyd/Watkins) aren’t going to want to end their careers without a win against South Carolina. This one will be back-and-forth, and I think in many ways will mimic the early Clemson/Georgia game. But I like Clemson in the end: 44 to 38.
Notre Dame @ Stanford – Stanford has won three of four in this series, and Stanford fans will argue that they should’ve won last year. The huge goal-line stand in the driving rain preserved the victory for the Irish and sent them to the National Championship to get destroyed by ‘Bama. This is pretty much the same Stanford team, but a much different Notre Dame team: no T’eo, no Golson, no Eiffert, and now no Louis Nix who is out with a knee injury. Still, Stanford tends to play teams close, as does Notre Dame. Look for Notre Dame to keep this competitive, but that pro-style running game from Stanford will wear them down in the end. Stanford 27 Notre Dame 20.
Week 14 Game of the Week:
Alabama @ Auburn – Let’s not forget the winner of the Iron Bowl has also won the National Championship the last four years, so there’s much more than just the SEC-West on the line. This is only the second Iron Bowl in which both teams are ranked in the Top-5 (Alabama beat Auburn in 1971). Alabama has the experience and Auburn has the energy. It’s fitting of a match-up between the elephant and the tiger. Even during Auburn’s title run in 2010, Alabama dominated this game; well, for the first half, at least; before Auburn stormed back to win 28-27 and go on to win the Championship. I usually pick experience and defense in these types of match-ups, which would clearly favor Alabama. Vegas agrees, with ‘Bama as a 10.5 point favorite. But, check this out: Saban is 0-5 against Auburn teams that finish the season with nine or more wins (and they already have 10 wins). This one goes down to the wire, and if a bounce or two goes Auburn’s way, they pull off the upset. But alas, the bounces have gone ‘Bama’s way for nearly three years, so I can’t bet against that: Alabama 34 Auburn 31.
Until next time…
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