This weekend gave us the game of the year so far. It was back and forth. One team jumped to a big lead, the other came storming back. And there was a miraculous play on fourth down, and then they finally eeked out a victory. Of course I’m talking about UCF and Temple. Okay, the script in the Georgia/Auburn game played out pretty much the same, but more on that later. The BCS clears up a bit with Stanford losing to USC (how many times have I said that Stanford’s biggest problem is that it’s system is designed for close games) and Ohio State struggling to put Illinois away. It’s still ‘Bama and FSU in 1a/1b, but I’ve got Baylor at #3 now.
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 12 Top-10 recap:
1. Baylor does it again – falls behind early in the first, then puts it in overdrive and drops 60 on someone. Yet the excuses are still out there. I was guilty of the “well they haven’t played anyone yet.” And now there’s the “well, Texas Tech was overrated and has lost four straight.” That’s fine and dandy, but the bottom line is Baylor is a very solid team top to bottom, and they will continue to get the spotlight with upcoming games @ Oklahoma State this weekend and v. Texas on December. Win out, and they’re in the Fiesta Bowl at worst. They’re praying for Auburn or South Carolina (sorry Missouri) to beat Alabama or FSU to lose to, um, Duke in the ACC Championship. Ohio State is going to slowly slide as the Big-10’s competition just isn’t as tough as the other major conferences (except the AAC of course).
2. During their usual post-LSU let down, ‘Bama looked sluggish at time, but once again walked away with a victory in which they held yet another opponent to less than 10. They keep saying this team has holes, but they keep winning in convincing fashion. Now they get a tune up against Chattanooga before the November 30th Iron Bowl, possibly the most anticipated match-up in this series in 20 years.
3. I said last week that despite how much I love Stanford, they weren’t deserving of a #4 BCS ranking and a mere upset or two away from a title match-up. I didn’t really need USC to prove my point, but they did. With loses against Utah and USC, how do you think Stanford would fare against FSU, Alabama, or Baylor? They’d interestingly enough probably have a better time with FSU and Baylor than Alabama, given their track record of success against spread teams versus grind it out teams. But, the BCS still loves Stanford, having them ranked the highest out of two loss teams.
4. Here we are approaching week 13, and South Carolina is still in the hunt in the SEC-East. They need a Missouri loss to either Ole Miss (not likely) or A&M (likely, but either way, take the over) to get a chance at Alabama/Auburn, and they also have a chance to show that Clemson isn’t the best one-loss team (a review of Clemson’s resume shows that a close win over Georgia isn’t that impressive now, and a blow-out against FSU with really nothing else to show for themselves implies trouble in the in-state rivalry to happen on November 30th).
5. Michigan State scored 41 against the Blackshirts from Nebraska. To put that in perspective, the only other times the Spartans have scored more than 30 were against Indiana (117th scoring defense), Illinois (111th scoring defense), and Youngstown State from the FCS. Pelini’s back on the hot seat.
6. These are words you don’t hear every day in November: Duke controls it’s own destiny in the ACC-Coastal.
7. Stanford’s loss to USC opened the door for Oregon to not only get back into the PAC-12 race, but also the National Championship race. But they’ll need a lot of help for that. Then again, remember a few years ago when LSU went from something like #7 to #2 in the second to last week of the year? With Alabama, Ohio State, Baylor, and Clemson having really tough match-ups left, this isn’t out of the question.
8. Oklahoma State dispatched Texas and pretty much knocked the Longhorns out of the Big-12 picture. Big-12 title is on the line (again) this weekend when Oklahoma State welcomes in Baylor.
9. As much as I like Arizona State, Wisconsin really should be 9-1 and likely in the top 10-15 in the BCS and playing for an at-large game. Then again, Wisconsin didn’t handle that kneel down correctly in Tempe in Week 3, so they do have some blame. Still, the Badgers’ two losses are by 9 points to the #3 and #17 teams in the BCS, so that should put them in the discussion for best two loss team in the country. Certainly, best two loss team that no one is talking about.
10. The entire game, and specifically the 4th quarter, of Georgia/Auburn was incredible. We’ve all seen the highlights, but one thing I haven’t seen much talk of is that Murray was stopped short of the goal line on their 4th down. Sure, replay upheld the call, mainly because there wasn’t indisputable evidence to overturn the call on the field. But I want to know where the opposite camera angle was. We only had two, from one side of the goal line and from the back. I want to see the opposite angle as I believe he was inches short of the goal line. Regardless, yet another example of defense backs trying to get a highlight interception when the play on 4th down needs to be to knock it down! After the deflection, that ball seemed to be in the air forever. I would’ve loved to have been there in person to witness that finish. College football at it’s finest!
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Florida State (10-0) – Off-the-field distractions don’t seem to be distracting the on-the-field play.
#2 Alabama (10-0) – Boring, yet incredibly efficient and may be the most complete Tide team of this dynasty.
#3 Baylor (9-0) – I’m a believer!
#4 Ohio State (10-0) – It’s not good when you need to run up the score against Illinois, and then only win by 25.
#5 Clemson (9-1) – Best one loss team. I think.
#6 Oregon (9-1) – Back in the picture.
#7 Auburn (10-1) – Iron Bowl. But we still have to wait a week.
#8 Oklahoma State (9-1) – Defacto Big-12 Championship this weekend. Again.
#9 Missouri (9-1) – Uh, we’re still here!!
#10 Fresno State (9-0) – Uh, so are we!
Rising Fast:
Duke – 8-2 and in control in the ACC-Coastal. And we’re talking basketball, not football.
Falling Faster:
Texas – They’ve still got a chance in the Big-12 despite the worst home loss in the Mack Brown era, and suffering their 8th straight home loss to ranked teams. Texas football, that ain’t.
Heisman Watch:
A.J. McCarron, Alabama – Sure, Winston at FSU may have better numbers and more flash, but nothing says “outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity” like sexual assault allegations that aren’t going away.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Alabama v. Florida State – I set the line at FSU -6.5 and O/U 64.
Week 13 Big Games:
Texas A&M @ LSU – The “don’t forget about us” match-up in the SEC-West. Both has aspirations for both the SEC Title and the BCS Title. Now they’re just playing for respect. LSU really shut down Johnny Football and Co. in the 2nd half last year, so it’s revenge time for A&M against an underachieving LSU team that has had flashes of brilliance. A&M 41 LSU 30.
Wisconsin @ Minnesota – A match-up of 8-2 teams in the Midwestern border battle. That’s right, Minnesota is 8-2. The Gophers have been winning close games, and while it’s no surprise that Wisconsin is rushing for over 300 yards a game, it is a bit of a surprise that Wisconsin has held six of their opponents to their lowest point total of the season. A strong rushing game and a solid defense will cause problems for Minnesota. No close game here: Wisconsin 45 Minnesota 13.
ASU @ UCLA – PAC-12 South more or less on the line in this one. ASU never plays well in So. Cal, but their defense is peaking. UCLA has struggled recently, though who doesn’t struggle against Oregon and Stanford? Overall these teams are pretty evenly matched, but weather may play a factor in this one, and if so, you gotta go with the better defense team which is ASU. Let’s take ASU in a squeaker: 31-30.
Missouri @ Ole Miss – Missouri’s starting QB is back, but their facing a Rebels team that is underrated (they’re only three loses were to A&M and Auburn by a combined 11 points, and they only gave up 25 to Alabama). The problem is that Missouri is more underrated and has shocked everyone this year, not only in the SEC but in the nation. Mizzou wins and keeps their SEC-East hopes alive: 33 to 24.
Week 13 Game of the Week:
Baylor @ Oklahoma State – Big-12 Championship game v3.0 (I think. It’s been hard to keep track). Baylor keeps impressing me, but Oklahoma State is at home and has a bit more experience. But, that loss to West Virginia is looking worse and worse, and despite picking OSU to win the Big-12, I think the tides are turning. Baylor’s offense is too explosive, and once they get the lead, they pin their ears back on defense and get to the QB. Baylor keeps things interesting the chase for the BCS: 59 to 45.
Until next time…
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