Sure enough, Florida State jumps back over Oregon in the BCS by beating an overrated Miami team (seriously; FSU was 21 point favorites). Don’t get me wrong, FSU is good; well, great; but, this flip-flopping poll nonsense is, well, nonsense. Oregon may have had a legitimate beef with not getting to the Championship last year – but the canned response is “don’t lose to Stanford.” That holds true this year as well, but can you imagine the chaos that’s going to ensue if we wind up with four unbeaten teams (not counting Fresno and Northern Illinois, of course) at the end of the season? In the words of Dick Enberg, “Oh my.” Thankfully, these things usually sort themselves out in the final few weeks. And, we’re in the final few weeks.
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 10 Top-10 recap:
1. What’s scarier about Navy almost beating Notre Dame (and racking up 330+ yards rushing on an Irish defense that was supposed to be better than last year’s version) is that if Navy had won (and they were certainly in a position to do so) it would’ve been their third win in their last four trips to South Bend. Remember when the Navy game was the one guaranteed victory for the Irish? Oh how things have changed…
2. I’ve never been a big Ohio State fan, but they’re just not getting any love at all. 21-0 under Urban Meyer, and unless Alabama and Florida State lose, they’re not going to get in, despite a likely 13-0 record in a major conference. We need a playoff and we need it now.
3. Granted it was only against Tennessee, but for Missouri to bounce back with a big win after the heartbreaking double O.T. loss to South Carolina shows that the Tigers are legitimate contenders in the SEC East. They need to take care of business against Kentucky and Ole Miss on the road, and then they close with A&M at home. If they win all three; they get ‘Bama in the SEC Championship. And speaking of Tennessee, what a brutal schedule. This weekend against Auburn will be their fifth straight game against Top-11 competition, coupled with the earlier road games against Oregon and Florida. It’s hard to have a good season when you play seven ranked teams.
4. USC has won three straight PAC-12 games after they bagged Lame Kiffin. That’s been bittersweet for me. As much as I hate Kiffin, I hate USC more. I remember the feeling I had after USC got rid of John Robinson and Paul Hackett and hired Pete Carroll. They went from a decade of mediocrity to great almost overnight (cheating certainly helped, of course). I fear that USC is going to be back to greatness now that Kiffin is a distant memory. I just hope that Kiffin doesn’t land in Nebraska when Pelini gets run out of town. I don’t even think the Hail Mary can save his job.
5. Staying in the PAC-12, Arizona State appears to be on a collision course with Oregon for the PAC-12 Championship. ASU’s offense is probably the only one in the PAC-12 that could attempt to stay in a shootout with Oregon, and their scores against common opponents have been pretty similar. But, ASU was blown out by Stanford, and Stanford is not going to blow out Oregon. Still, take the over on an ASU/Oregon PAC-12 Championship.
6. The Michigan-Michigan State game was so ugly that it’s worth discussing for a just a bit. Okay, that’s about enough of a recap of that game. Sparty’s in line to get destroyed by Ohio State in the Big10 Championship.
7. Wisconsin is the best two loss team that no one is talking about. They likely should only have one loss with how the refs botched the finish @ Arizona State. And, they only lost by seven at the Horseshoe to Ohio State. They should finish 10-2, if they can survive the trip to Minnesota in a couple weeks. Yes, Minnesota. 7-2 Minnesota. Well, soon to be 7-5 Minnesota, but whatever.
8. If you had to pick Boyd to Watkins or Manziel to Evans as your top QB to WR combo, which would you pick? I’d probably pick Boyd/Watkins solely because of their first names: Tajh and Sammy sounds much more badass than Johnny and Mike. Then again, Johnny Lawrence and Mike Barnes were the villains in Karate Kid I and III…
9. Time to dust off the tie-breaker rules for the Big 12 Championship (since there’s not a conference championship game anymore, the rulebook is sponsored by Dr. Pepper). Texas is soon to be 6-0 in the conference, but closes with Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Baylor. Baylor is 4-0, but has Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Texas. Oklahoma State had the random loss to West Virginia, but still has Texas, Baylor, and Oklahoma. And finally, Oklahoma was shellacked by Texas, but only has Baylor and Oklahoma State left (well, not counting Iowa State and Kansas State). Oklahoma has the easier road, but with the loss to Texas, needs two Texas losses. I’m still betting on Oklahoma State to come out on top.
10. Well, we’re ten weeks in, let’s look back at my preseason Top-10: #1 Oregon, #2 Ohio State, #3 South Carolina, #4 Stanford, #5 Alabama, #6 Louisville, #7 Georgia, #8 Oklahoma State, #9 Clemson, and #10 Florida. So, oops on South Carolina, Louisville, Georgia, Okie State, and Florida (though, Oklahoma State could find themselves back in the Top-10 pretty quick). Not too shabby.
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Oregon (8-0) – Win out, and you’re in. Don’t worry about those flip-flopping polls. FSU’s schedule isn’t going to help them from here on out.
#2 Ohio State (9-0) – Style points don’t matter Urban. Quit running up the score (though, if you get the chance to drop a hondo on Indiana in couple weeks, do it!)
#3 Alabama (8-0) – Wouldn’t it be sad if this “boring” team winds up undefeated (something they weren’t the last two years) champs? How would that affect their dynasty?
#4 Florida State (9-0) – Yes, Miami was overrated. But still, you put a whipping on the ‘Canes.
#5 Clemson (8-1) – Boyd to Watkins is fun to watch. Over and over.
#6 Stanford (7-1) – I don’t think you’re as good as last year’s team. We’ll find out for sure on Thursday.
#7 Oklahoma (7-1) – Since you’re going to beat Baylor, I have to have you ranked ahead of them.
#8 Baylor (7-0) – Fun run, while it lasted.
#9 LSU (7-2) – If you don’t beat ‘Bama, we can just forget about this ranking, m’kay?
#10 Fresno State (8-0) – Northern Illinois earned the right to get clobbered by a real team; you’ll probably get lucky and have a shot to beat the Big12 Champion in the Fiesta Bowl.
Rising Fast:
Florida State – Not just beating good teams, but destroying them. FSU is a legitimate title contender, and if the initial rankings came out today, they’d probably be #1. I have them #4 because I’m still pissed they gave them the title in ’93 over Notre Dame even though Notre Dame beat them head-to-head.
Falling Faster:
Texas Tech – Started off 7-0. Now you’ve lost two straight and still have Baylor and Texas.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota – It’s simple, if Oregon beats Stanford, he wins the Heisman.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Oregon v. Ohio State – Ohio State continues to be on the outside looking in, but I still have them here because it’s pretty clear they aren’t going to lose. FSU will lose to someone (they always do), as will Alabama. If ‘Bama does wind up undefeated, I’ll really enjoy the Oregon-Alabama match-up, but I’m sticking with my preseason prediction (gotta be a record for the Autumn Wind to have the same prediction in week 11) of Oregon & Ohio State.
Week 11 Big Games:
Oklahoma @ Baylor – Baylor finally plays someone, and it’s safe to say that they’re not going to put up 60 on the Sooners. OU has a revamped defense to counter the spread offense, and it’s been working wonders. I’m still not sure what happened in the Red River Rivalry, but OU is probably the best one loss team in the country; okay, maybe a bit behind Clemson. Baylor’s dream season comes to an end, despite being at home with a crowd calling this one the biggest game in Baylor history. Oklahoma
LSU @ Alabama – 21-17, 9-6, 24-21. Those are the scores of the last three regular season games between Alabama and LSU (throw out the 21-0 National Championship matchup that never should’ve happened). And, LSU has won two out of three of those. We all know Alabama’s story, and while LSU limps in with two losses, they were by a combined six points to pretty good Georgia and Ole’ Miss teams. Both teams can score, but Alabama’s defense keeps getting better and better – only giving up a total of 26 points in their last six games. But, folks are getting complacent in Tuscaloosa. I’ve heard from several Alabama fans that aren’t even watching games anymore because, and I quote: “they’re boring.” Alabama is favored by 11, which is crazy, considering the recent history between these two. I’m sticking to my guns, and I’m calling the upset, which knocks the SEC out of Championship consideration: LSU 23 Alabama 20.
Week 11 Game of the Week:
Oregon @ Stanford – I’ve had this one circled since last year when Oregon laid a balut at home and shanked that FG attempt in O.T. in their 14-7 loss that kept them out of the national championship picture. But Stanford was just returning the favor from 2011 when Oregon blew them out of championship consideration in a 53-20 loss at the Farm. Both teams have shown they can win on each others’ field, so that won’t play a factor. Turnovers will. That will decide the game. Mariota hasn’t thrown an INT since the Stanford game last year. If he protects the ball, Oregon wins. The other major factor is injuries. Stanford’s a little beat up. They were able to control tempo from start to finish last year, but with some injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and not as efficient of an offense compared to last year’s version, Stanford needs to avoid a patented Duck three-TD burst. And they won’t be able to. Oregon wins big: 43 to 24.
Until next time…
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