Bowl Preview Edition - Part II

And here’s part duex of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview Edition! Enjoy!

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPN2
Georgia v. Nebraska

The first bowl game of 2014 gives us a rematch of a bowl game from last season. Georgia is beaten up and Pelini keeps begging Nebraska to fire him. Both teams played a ton of close games this year, including several that weren’t decided until the final minutes (and how different of a bowl picture are we seeing if Auburn doesn’t beat Georgia on that bizarre hail mary?). So, look for a close game here. In these cases I always have to pick the SEC over the Big 10. Sorry Nebraska.

Gambling angle: The SEC has beaten the Big 10 in three straight here, but underdogs have also covered two out of the last three. I like Georgia to win, but not by nine; let’s take Nebraska +9 and the over 60.5 as both defenses have struggled all year.

Heart of Dallas Bowl – Jan. 1, 12:00pm EST ESPNU
North Texas v. UNLV

Last year we were graced with Oklahoma State and Purdue in the “Used to be Ticket City Bowl” and now we get North Texas and UNLV? Yikes. And it’s in the time slot competing with Georgia/Nebraska, which means no one will watch it. North Texas is pretty much at home, so they’ll win this one.

Gambling angle: No strong trends here for such a young bowl game, so I like North Texas -6.5 and the under 54.5.

Outback Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ESPN
LSU v. Iowa

The Outback Bowl is turning into one of my favorite bowls of the year. It always matches up Big 10 versus SEC teams. But top tier teams from each conference, not the stragglers that the Gator Bowl and others get. And, usually on paper the SEC team is supposed to be the dominant team. But looking back 20+ years, the SEC is only 12-9 against the Big 10 here. And remember Michigan State’s shocking upset of Georgia two years ago and Michigan’s near upset of South Carolina last year? LSU and injured and deflated, and Iowa surprised all with an eight win season. I’m smelling an upset here…

Gambling angle: The Big-10 has covered or tied the spread eight of the last 11 Outback bowls (as it’s usually a motivated Big-10 team and an unmotivated SEC team), so I like Iowa +7.5 the under 49.

Capital One Bowl – Jan. 1, 1:00pm EST ABC
South Carolina v. Wisconsin

Another good Big 10/SEC match up here, with solid defenses and smash mouth offenses. After the unexpected loss @ Tennessee, South Carolina has rattled off five straight wins, including victories against #5 Missouri and #6 Clemson. Wisconsin’s three losses were really only two (@ Ohio State and v. Penn State) as they should’ve beaten ASU on the road if the refs don’t blow it. If they do make that chip shot field goal, they’re probably closer to a Top-10 ranking. South Carolina is only giving up 20 points a game and Wisconsin on 15, so points will be at a premium. South Carolina has the momentum, and in a Big 10/SEC match up, I usually will pick the SEC, especially if it’s a hungry team. South Carolina by a FG.

Gambling angle: Five of the last eight have played under, and that seems appropriate with these defenses, so I like the under 51. The game is a pick ‘em, and I gotta go with South Carolina.

Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO – Jan. 1, 5:00pm EST ESPN
Michigan State v. Stanford

The 100th Rose Bowl takes place this year, and with these two teams, it looks similar to the matchup from 100 years ago. Points will be at a premium, but off-tackle right FB dives will not be. Stanford’s style lends itself to close games, and Michigan State’s defense is about the best in the land so this will be a close, low scoring game. I still don’t know how/why Stanford lost to Utah, but Stanford beat Notre Dame and Notre Dame beat Michigan State. That’s enough for me to pick the Cardinal in this one.

Gambling angle: The Big 10 has only won this game once since 2000, but the last three have been close, decided by a total of 15 points. Favorites tend to do well in Pasadena, so I like Stanford -4.5 and the under 42.5.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl – Jan. 1, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Baylor v. UCF

How many had Baylor and UCF in their preseason prediction for the Fiesta Bowl? Thought so. UCF comes in after winning the AAC, and their only loss was by a FG to South Carolina. But, the problem is, they had several other close calls; seven of their wins were decided by seven or less. That won’t bode well against the #1 offense in the country. Baylor, in a rout.

Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered four of the last six Fiesta Bowls, but the two that didn’t cover were when Kansas State was overmatched with Oregon last year and UConn got stuck with Oklahoma a couple years ago. Even though Baylor’s spread is the highest of the bowls this year, I like them to light things up. Baylor -16.5 and the over 68 is the play here.

Allstate Sugar Bowl – Jan. 2, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Alabama v. Oklahoma

After two years of bad match-ups, the Sugar Bowl gets a dream pairing of Alabama and Oklahoma. Alabama should be playing for the National Championship (again) and Oklahoma rebounded after the embarrassing loss to Baylor with their upset over Oklahoma State in the final game of the year to grab an at-large BCS bid. Alabama is a huge favorite, and rightfully so, but you do have to remember the last time an Alabama team wound up in the Sugar Bowl after a heartbreaking loss to close the season. Utah smacked them upside the head in the 2009 Sugar Bowl, winning 31-17. But, the Texas rumors are kaput, and Saban needs a win here to keep the recruiting train running through Tuscaloosa. Speaking of running, Alabama is 45-1 under A.J. McCarron when they rush for 125+ yards and only 4-5 when they don’t, so look for a steady dose of T.J. Yeldon and company. And, this will be the best defense that Oklahoma faces by far, much better than the Texas and Baylor defenses that held Oklahoma to 20 and 12 points in their two losses. ‘Bama wins in a rout.

Gambling angle: 15 is a lot of points to give up, but I’ll do it. Alabama -15 and the under 51.5 as the Tide defense will limit Oklahoma to less than 20 points.

AT&T Cotton Bowl – Jan. 3, 7:30pm EST FOX
Missouri v. Oklahoma State

Old Big 12 foes are at it again in the Cotton Bowl, following up last year’s match up of Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Missouri was the surprise in the SEC this year, and Oklahoma State once again blew a chance at the Big 12 Championship by losing Bedlam (again). Missouri, despite coming out of nowhere, is still one of the most underrated teams in the country, losing only that double O.T. thriller against South Carolina and keeping it pretty darn close against the buzz saw that is Auburn this year. Oklahoma State will score, but they won’t be able to score enough to overcome the Tigers. I like Missouri in a shootout.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 9-1 straight up over the Big-12 in this game. That will continue, and I like Missouri -1 and the over has hit two out of the last three here, so I gotta take the over 60.5 with these two offenses.

Discover Orange Bowl – Jan. 3, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Ohio State v. Clemson

Ohio State was one win away from a National Championship and Clemson lost the only two real games they played all year. It’s going to be hard to motivate the Buckeyes, who slipped up against the Spartans in the Big 10 Championship game. There will be lots of offense in this one, and we get to watch Boyd to Watkins one final time. I like Clemson to win this one, if for no other reason than I hate Ohio State.

Gambling angle: Underdogs are 7-3 against the spread and the under has hit eight out of 11, and with good reason. Some overvalued BCS teams against some undervalued opponents. Let’s take Clemson +2.5 and the under 67.5.

BBVA Compass Bowl – Jan. 4, 1:00pm EST ESPN
Houston v. Vanderbilt

After 33 games we get Houston and Vanderbilt on January 4th? At least it’s a Saturday and there’s probably something else to do. Vandy’s QB is hurt, and Houston led the nation in turnover margin and takeaways. Houston gets the W.

Gambling angle: Let’s take Houston +3 and the under 54 (again, only because I’m picking lines and O/U’s on every game).

GoDaddy Bowl – Jan. 5, 9:00pm EST ESPN
Ball State v. Arkansas State

They should just change the name of this bowl to the Arkansas State bowl, as this is their third straight visit here. Ball State won 10 games for just the third time in school history, but is 0-7-1 in bowl games. If you’re not doing anything on this Sunday night, go ahead and watch Ball State win their first bowl game.

Gambling angle: Favorites are 8-1-2 against the spread in this game, so let’s look to Ball State -9 and the under 63.5.

Discover BCS National Championship – Jan. 6, 8:30pm EST ESPN
Florida State v. Auburn

The BCS comes to a close, and while Auburn may be the team of destiny, in order to win, they need to defeat a Florida State team that won all of its games by an average score of 53-10 and finished 2nd in the country in scoring and 1st in points allowed (a very rare thing). Auburn needed some magic to get here, the improbable wins in the closing moments against Georgia and Alabama; and then knocking off a very good Missouri team in the SEC Championship. On paper, FSU wins in a rout (especially with how suspect Auburn’s defense is), but there are several factors to consider here, even outside of the destiny talk. FSU hasn’t faced a rushing attack like Auburn. In fact, the one very strong rushing team that FSU played, Boston College, kept it pretty close. FSU didn’t play another close game. How will they do when Auburn not only matches them blow-for-blow early on, but then frustrates the FSU offense by keeping the FSU defense on the field for long drives? Auburn is battle tested and knows how to win close games, but FSU is not. And, of course you can’t ignore the SEC’s 7-game BCS Championship winning streak. And finally, check out these numbers: in the last 10 years the BCS Championship has been played between an undefeated team and a one loss team three times and the one loss team is 3-0, winning all three by 20+ points. And FSU’s strength of schedule is the lowest of any championship team in the last ten years. The three previous lowest (2006 Ohio State, 2007 Ohio State, and 2009 Texas) all lost to SEC teams by more than 14 points. But, the month off will benefit Florida State more than Auburn (who’s relying on a ton of momentum), and Auburn’s Achilles heel is its defense. They’ll score on FSU, but can they hold FSU to under 50? I don’t think so. FSU wins the final BCS Championship, but it comes down to the wire: FSU 52 Auburn 45.

Gambling angle: The SEC is 7-0 straight up and against the spread here, so gotta stick with that (at least for the spread). Auburn +8.5 and the over 67.

Well, that’s it for 2013’s college football season! From all of the editors, statisticians, researchers, and other contributors at the Autumn Wind (oh wait – it’s just me): Happy New Year!