Wow! Rivalry weekend certainly lived up to the hype – many games came down to the wire and Arizona State beat the snot out of UofSuck! Coaches are already starting to shuffle, and there’s renewed debate about who’s #2. I’ll expand on that – who’s #1??
Now here’s the Autumn Wind’s week 14 Top-10 recap:
1. In my preview of the Auburn/Alabama game, I closed with this: “This one goes down to the wire, and if a bounce or two goes Auburn’s way, they pull off the upset.” The bounces certainly went their way (sans the Alabama 99-yard TD pass). I felt like Saban made some coaching mistakes, but I think part of it started right on the first drive when Alabama missed the FG wide left. It’s almost like Saban felt they were reliving the 2011 LSU game. Still, I have yet to hear a legitimate defense for trying that 56 yard FG with : 01 left. You’ve a Heisman candidate QB, have him toss it to the endzone and hope for a miracle grab or a defensive penalty. Of course, if it does go O.T., there’s no guarantee that Alabama wins (especially with how well Auburn runs the ball in a short field situation, and how bad Alabama’s kicking game was), but it still seems pretty cruel that the dynasty ends on a 109-yard missed FG return against an in-state rival in their building. Though, an Alabama-Auburn rematch in the Championship isn’t completely out of the question (more on that later).
2. In a turnover-filled Civil War, the Beavers matched the Ducks blow for blow, but in the end they just left too much time on the clock for the Oregon offense. Of course, Oregon scored the winning TD with just a 1:09 drive. Great effort by Oregon State though, and I’m glad that Mariota is coming back for Oregon. They’ll be a Top-5 preseason team once again.
3. “The Game” saw its highest scoring matchup since 1902 and Michigan went for two (probably since they wouldn’t let ‘em go for three) and the win after a three TD rally in the 4th quarter. I like the call. You were a huge underdog at home, had all the momentum, and had a chance to knock your rival out of the National Championship Game. And, Ohio State was running the ball at will against Michigan all day, not something you want to go up against in O.T. with a tired defense. But, the pass was intercepted and it looks like Ohio State will be in the BCS Championship if they can get by Michigan State.
4. South Carolina continued its dominance over Clemson, and I’m going to be really curious to watch how Clemson plays in its bowl game. Outside of the Georgia game in week #1, they played two quality teams (FSU and South Carolina) and got blown out by both of them. If Clemson played in the SEC, PAC-12, or Big-12 this year, they’re probably a 3-5 loss team.
5. The best part about the Territorial Cup was Arizona State blowing out UofSuck and grabbing home field advantage for the PAC-12 Championship against Stanford. The worst part? The PAC-12 Network must be owned by UofSuck, because it sucks as much as they do, and hardly anyone got to watch the game. Get it together PAC-12 Network!!
6. Michigan State has now won eight straight, and has a chance to knock Ohio State out of the National Championship picture. Interestingly enough, it looks like Michigan State is headed to Rose Bowl, win or lose as the Rose Bowl would likely grab them up if Ohio State does win and winds up in the National Championship. I’m still not sold on this Sparty team, but they do only have one loss (a close 17-13 contest @ Notre Dame), and they’re defense will always keep them in games (and in some cases, win games).
7. Duke held off North Carolina to win the ACC-Coastal, and with FSU playing Duke in the ACC Championship, and Ohio State playing Michigan State in the Big-12 Championship, the main assumption of there is that FSU-Ohio State will be the BCS Championship match-up. Lots has been said and written about who deserves the #2 slot and who will get stuck in the #3 slot (even though there’s lots of football left to play!). I’ll take it a step further – who deserves to be #1??
8. Let’s debate #1 – FSU is clear favorite atop the polls, but let’s look at their resume: non-con schedule (Nevada, Bethune-Cookman, Idaho, and Florda) – meh. Key wins: Clemson, Maryland, Miami – meh. Closest game: @ Boston College – meh. Overall conference (ACC): double meh. Okay, how about Ohio State: non-con schedule (Buffalo, San Diego State, Cal, Florida A&M): double meh (at least in FSU’s case, Florida is supposed to be good). Key wins: Wisconsin and Northwestern – okay, but not great. Closest games: v. Wisconsin and @ Michigan – okay. Overall conference (Big 10): meh (or even double meh, same # of ranked teams as the ACC). The edge may actually be to Ohio State to be ranked over FSU. So that settles #1 and #2, right? In the words of Corso – not so fast!
9. But here’s where it gets interesting – let’s look at these three one-loss SEC teams: Auburn, Alabama, and Missouri.
Auburn’s non-con schedule (Washington State, Arkansas State, W. Carolina, Florida Atl): meh (though at least Wazzou is going to a bowl). Key wins: Ole Miss, A&M, Georgia, Alabama – wow. Loss: @ LSU in week 4 – okay. Overall conference (SEC): still the best, seven currently ranked teams.
Alabama’s non-con schedule (Virginia Tech, Colorado State, Georgia State, Chattanooga) – meh, though props for scheduling a tough (at least when scheduled) early game and for sprinkling out the cupcakes throughout the year). Key wins: @ A&M, Ole Miss, LSU – pretty good. Loss: @ Auburn (on a 109 missed FG return) – wow.
Missouri’s non-con schedule (Murray State, Toledo, Arkansas State, Indiana) – meh. Key wins: Georgia, Ole Miss, A&M – good. Loss: South Carolina (in 2 O.T.) – wow.
10. So, to close this recap, I will suggest this: if college football had no rankings until today, this is how the teams should be ranked (based on their abilities, momentum, and overall resume): 1) Missouri, 2) Auburn, 3) Alabama, 4) Ohio State, and 5) FSU; which, ironically, is almost the exact opposite of this week’s BCS rankings. But, thankfully, the sun is setting on the BCS, and next year we can be having the argument of who gets left out of the Top-4? In this scenario, I think it would probably be Alabama based on their late loss. Even with a playoff, it’s still going to be better to lose early than late…
Now on to the Top-10 in the standings:
Top-10:
#1 Florida State (12-0) – I hope you get a shot at one of the SEC teams.
#2 Ohio State (11-0) – Just lose to Michigan State and make it easier on everyone.
#3 Missouri (11-1) – Double O.T. loss to South Carolina makes you the most impressive one loss team.
#4 Auburn (11-1) – You beat ‘Bama, so you have to be above them.
#5 Alabama (11-1) – Do you think Saban slept on Saturday night?
#6 Oklahoma State (10-1) – Fiesta Bowl bound.
#7 Baylor (10-1) – Still seeking an at-large bid.
#8 South Carolina (10-2) – Will sadly be left out of an at-large bid.
#9 Michigan State (11-1) – Roses for the Spartans.
#10 Northern Illinois (12-0) – Which bowl do you get clobbered in this year? The Fiesta, I think.
Rising Fast:
Auburn – Two miracle finishes in a row put the Tigers in position for the SEC Championship and a very good case for an appearance in the BCS Championship.
Falling Faster:
UAB – They were up by eight at halftime against So. Miss (a team that was 0-12 last year and 0-11 this year) and ended up losing by 35 and finish the year 2-10.
Heisman Watch:
Jordan Lynch, Northern Illinois – Why not? He’s a 20/20 guy (passing/rushing TDs) and three of the four that have done that in the history of college football have won the Heisman (Tebow, Newton, and Manziel). Northern Illinois is likely going to bust the BCS again, and unlike Winston, Lynch isn’t likely to get busted by the law soon.
BCS Title Game Prediction:
Florida State v. Ohio State – I’m still torn on this one, as you can make a case that several of the one loss teams had a much tougher road than these two. But, until we have a playoff, two undefeated teams have largely been rewarded. Let’s pick FSU 45 Ohio State 31.
Week 15 Big Games:
Duke v. Florida State – Duke’s a great story this year, but they’re completely over-matched in this one. Even the most serious of off the field distractions won’t come into play here. FSU 52 Duke 17.
Michigan State v. Ohio State – Michigan State will need their defense to score often to have a chance in this one. But, Ohio State may have some suspensions, and teams often start slow off of a very emotional victory. If Michigan State can put some points on the board early, their defense may be able to hold off the Buckeyes. But not for long enough. Ohio State 27 Michigan State 14.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State – Bedlam decides the Big-12 Championship. Sort of. If Oklahoma State wins, they win the Conference, if OU pulls the upset then the Baylor/Texas game has some relevance. Oklahoma State always seems to struggle against their big brother, but they’ve got the better team this year, and are at home and are riding high. Oklahoma State 34 Oklahoma 27.
Stanford @ Arizona State – ASU gets Stanford at home in this rematch, but this time ASU is favored. It’s hard to figure out why, especially since Stanford had the Devil’s down 29-0 at halftime earlier this season. But ASU is peaking, and Stanford struggles on the road (losing @ Utah and @ USC and struggling @ Oregon State and even @ Army). A look at both of these teams’ match-ups with Notre Dame show just how evenly matched they are. And, if you look at last year’s PAC-12 Championship (also a re-match), Stanford struggled against UCLA even though the beat them handily the week before. I like ASU to unexpectedly get to the Rose Bowl: 34 to 31.
Week 15 Game of the Week:
Missouri v. Auburn – No surprise that the SEC Championship is once again this week’s game of the week, but it is a surprise that it is Auburn and Missouri facing off. We covered both teams earlier and how they got here and I think this match-up comes down to this – either destiny or borrowed time. Auburn could’ve easily lost their last two while Missouri has just been chugging along. Will Auburn come out flat after back-to-back weeks of emotional victories? Can Missouri’s defense shut down the Auburn running game? Everyone seems to be riding Auburn, so I’m going to do the opposite: Missouri pulls the upset and makes their case for #2: 38 to 31.
Until next time…
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