Here’s Part I of the 7th annual edition of the Autumn Wind’s Bowl Preview. I’ll break ‘em all down: 35 bowls, 70 teams, starting December 21st and ending January 6th, including some very intriguing match-ups in non-BCS bowls. Here’s the games, dates, times, TV coverage, and angles (for entertainment purposes only) up to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on December 31st. I’ll post the update for the real bowl games next week. Enjoy the last few weeks of the 2013-2014 college football season!
Gildan New Mexico Bowl – Dec. 21, 2:00pm EST ESPN
Washington State v. Colorado State
A couple of teams new to bowls start off the 2012-2013 bowl season, as Colorado State is bowling for the first time since 2008 and Washington State gets in at 6-6 for the first time since 2003. Keep an eye Kapri Bibbs, the running back no one has heard of. He plays for Colorado State and leads the nation with 28 rushing touchdowns. And Washington State’s defense has been torched by some of the stronger rushing teams in the PAC-12 this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Colorado State pulls the upset.
Gambling angle: This is the 8th New Mexico Bowl – and underdogs have not only covered five of the first seven, but won outright in four of those (and Nevada nearly upset UofSuck as a 10-point dog last year). In addition the over has hit in the last five. Let’s look for Colorado State to cover the +4, perhaps winning outright, and even though the over is at 65, I think they’ll get there as Leach’s pass-happy offense will put some points on the board as well.
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl – Dec. 21, 3:30pm EST ABC
Fresno State v. USC
Fresno State was one win away from busting the BCS, and UCS is on their third coach of the year. The match-up here is Fresno’s high powered offense versus UCS’s stingy defense. And, even though Fresno’s defense is horrible, UCS’s offense is just as bad. I’m excited about the game as it’s pretty rare to have a matchup of two ranked teams this early in the bowl season.
Gambling angle: I like Fresno State +6 (and maybe an outright win) and with ten of the last 15 Vegas Bowl’s hitting the under, I like the under 62 as USC’s offense is bad but their defense is going to keep Fresno in check.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Dec. 21, 5:30pm EST ESPN
Buffalo v. San Diego State
Ohio State destroyed San Diego State, but Buffalo played the Buckeyes pretty close. That was back in September though, and things have obviously changes since then. Three of San Diego State’s wins came in overtime, and another two wins were separated by five points or less and they only beat 2-10 Air Force by seven. December in Idaho will favor Buffalo, so let’s go ahead and pick them.
Gambling angle: No strong trends here: underdogs are 4-3-1 against the spread the last eight here, and half of the last six have played to either the over or the under. The game is a pick ‘em, and lets pick Buffalo and the under 63.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Dec. 21, 9:00pm EST ESPN
Tulane v. Louisiana-Lafayette
We should just change the name of this bowl to the Louisiana-Lafayette bowl as they’re making their third straight appearance (also winning the last two). Both teams lost to South Alabama, so take that for what it’s worth. I should like LA-LF at home, but Joe Montana’s kid (Nick) has led a nice turn around for Tulane’s program that’s only in their 4th bowl game in 30 years.
Gambling angle: Underdogs are 5-3 in the past eight and six of the past seven have played over the total. The game’s a pick ‘em, so let’s take Tulane and the over 56.
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl – Dec 23, 2:00pm EST ESPN
East Carolina v. Ohio
If you don’t have anything better to do than watch this game, then go ahead and jump off of a cliff. The most interesting part of this game will be the O/U on Beef ‘O’ Brady commercials. Let’s put it at 9.5.
Gambling angle: This is the 6th Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, somehow it still keeps going. Let’s take ECU -13.5 and the over 61.5, not that anyone will be watching.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl – Dec. 24, 8:00pm ESPN
Boise State v. Oregon State
Peterson won’t be coaching the Broncos, focusing on his upcoming job with Washington. That’s gotta favor Oregon State. As usual, there’s going to massive offense in this game (even more so then usual, thanks to two crappy defenses), so I think we’re looking at a shoot-out. Boise State will win this one in a squeaker.
Gambling angle: Boise State opened -3, but now it’s moved to Oregon State -3, Underdogs have won, and covered, four of the past five here, and seven of the last 11 have played over. I like Boise State +3 and the over 65.
Little Caesars Bowl – Dec. 26, 6:00pm EST ESPN
Pittsburgh v. Bowling Green
I like Little Caesars Pizza. That’s about all I’ll say about this game.
Gambling angle: Underdogs have covered five outta six and under total is 9-5 in last 14 Motor City…errrrr, Little Caesars Bowls. Pitt +5.5 and the under 50, I guess.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – Dec. 26, 9:30pm EST ESPN
Utah State v. Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois was one win away from another BCS game, but they stumbled against Bowling Green. On paper, NIU is a much better team than Utah State, but this is the first of those bowls where you’ve gotta wonder if Northern Illinois will show up to play after going from a likely BCS spot to a pre-New Year’s game. And, Utah State may be the best defense that NIU has seen all year. Utah State pulls the upset in a squeaker.
Gambling angle: The Mountain West has won six of the past seven here, so let’s look for that again. Utah State +1.5 and the under 58, as points will be at a premium in this one.
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman – Dec. 27 2:30pm EST ESPN
Marshall v. Maryland
Remember when Maryland was 4-0 and ranked #25? Well, that week they lost to Florida State 63-0 and proceeded to lose four of their next six (winning their only two in that stretch by a total of four points). They did close with a win against ACC winless NC State to finish 7-5, but it’s 9-4 Marshall that comes into this one with all of the momentum. They had won seven of eight before losing to Rice in the Conference USA Championship Game. Marshall is 1st in the nation in passing and 7th in scoring. The problem is they’re defense gives up more than 40/game. The good news is Maryland only scores ~20/game, so I think Marshall comes out on top.
Gambling angle: All five is this bowl’s history have played to the over; so I like the Marshal -2.5 and the over 61.
Texas Bowl – Dec. 27, 6:00pm EST ESPN
Syracuse v. Minnesota
The old Texas Bowl that was the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas is now back to being just the Texas Bowl. Minnesota’s back here again, after given Texas Tech all they could handle last year. And this Gopher team is much better. Syracuse is a middle of the pack ACC team, so you gotta favor Minnesota in this one.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 7-3-2 against the spread in this bowl so let’s take Minnesota -4; and I like the over 47.5 as well as four of the past six played over.
Fight Hunger Bowl – Dec. 27, 9:30pm EST ESPN
BYU v. Washington
I guess Kraft didn’t fight hunger good enough, so it’s just the Fight Hunger Bowl now. Sarkisian is out as he’s the new USC coach, so good ol’ Tuiasosopo will be coaching for Washington. Washington’s only four losses were to ranked PAC-12 teams (Oregon, Stanford, Arizona State, and UCLA), while BYU beat Texas and played Wisconsin and Notre Dame close, but they also lost to Virginia and Utah. Let’s take Washington.
Gambling angle: Let’s look at Washington -3 and the under 58.5.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Dec. 28, 12:00pm EST ESPN
Rutgers v. Notre Dame
Rutgers needed a late win against South Florida to finish 6-6 and get to a bowl. Notre Dame was up and down all season, and just never really regained the “it” they had last year, despite returning most of their starters. Vegas really likes Notre Dame in this one, but as usual, the number is too high. Notre Dame will win, as Rutgers isn’t very good, but it’s going to be an ugly game.
Gambling angle: I’ll take Rutgers +15.5 and the under 52.5.
Belk Bowl – Dec. 28, 3:20pm EST ESPN
Cincinnati v. North Carolina
This would be a great Sweet 16 matchup, but we’re stuck with a football game instead. Cincy rattled off nine wins under Tuberville, and North Carolina bounced back after a 1-5 start to make a bowl. If the New Era Pinstripe Bowl didn’t bore you enough, this one certainly will.
Gambling angle: Cincy won and covered in this game last year, but they’re a 3-point underdog this year against a middle of the road ACC team. I like Cincy +3 and the over 56.5 (if you haven’t figured it out by now, this gambling “advice” is truly for entertainment purposes. Anyone who bets on this game needs to call 1-800-522-4700 immediately.
Russell Athletic Bowl – Dec. 28, 6:45pm ESPN
Miami v. Louisville
Both of these teams had early National Championship hopes before Louisville lost a heartbreaker to eventual AAC Champion UCF and Miami dropped three straight to Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Duke. This is likely Teddy Bridgewater’s last game for Louisville, and he gets to play it very close to where he played his high school ball in Florida. Louisville’s defense is underrated, and it’s kind of a shame that they’re ranked as low as they are for being a one loss team. Miami was exposed mid-season, and they’ll be exposed in this one as well. Louisville wins big in yet another bowl game.
Gambling angle: The ACC is only 3-7 straight up in this game, and the under is 7-1 the past eight. I really like Louisville -3.5 and the under 55.5.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl – Dec. 28, 10:15pm EST ESPN
Michigan v. Kansas State
Michigan stumbles into this bowl, losing five of seven and has an injured QB. And let’s not forget they almost lost to Akron and UConn. Kansas State started poorly, but has won five of their last six (losing only to BCS-at large Oklahoma in a pretty close game). I’d think Kansas State wins this one handily, but they have lost their last five bowl games, and Michigan occasionally performs extremely well (remember the games against Notre Dame and Ohio State?). But, the injury bug will be too much for Michigan to overcome, and Synder is due for a bowl win.
Gambling angle: The over is 8-3 in this last 11 here, and the Big-12 has won five of seven v. Big-10, so I’ll take Kansas State -3.5 and over 55.5
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl – Dec. 30, 11:45am EST ESPN
Middle Tennessee v. Navy
Navy can run the ball and Middle Tennessee cannot stop the run. That’s this one in a nutshell.
Gambling angle: Rice upset Air Force last year, but I don’t see Middle Tennessee figuring out how to stop Navy’s triple option attack, especially with how porous their defense is. Let’s take Navy -6 and the over 55.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Dec. 30, 3:15pm EST ESPN
Ole Miss v. Georgia Tech
A match-up of 7-5 teams in this one. But, one’s from the SEC and the other from ACC. That means the SEC team wins. Don’t forget Ole Miss beat Texas and LSU this year (but do forget they lost to Mississippi State). Georgia Tech’s signature win was over Duke, but that was early in the season, and regardless of how good Duke is this year, it’s never a good thing to have them as your signature win.
Gambling angle: I like Ole Miss -3 (favorites are 6-2-1 the last nine Music City bowls) and since eight of 12 have played under, I like the under 57.
Valero Alamo Bowl – Dec. 30, 6:45pm EST ESPN
Oregon v. Texas
The Big 12 has owned the PAC-12 in recent history in this game which bodes well for Texas. Oregon struggled down the stretch after getting beat down (again) by Stanford, and Texas rebounded nicely after starting slow. This will also be Mack Brown’s final game at the helm for Texas, ending a stellar career that’s been on the slow decline the last couple of years. But, which Oregon team will show up? The National Championship contender, or the team that lost to Stanford and then more or less declared that they didn’t even care about the Rose Bowl (which of course led to another loss)? And, Texas upset Oregon State in this very game last year. But, the Ducks aren’t the Beavers, and this Texas team isn’t as good as last year’s version. I like Oregon in a shootout.
Gambling angle: Trends for both the spread and O/U are pretty even here, so I gotta go with my gut. Oregon will win, but not by 14. I like Texas +14 and the over 67.
National University Holiday Bowl – Dec. 30, 10:15pm EST ESPN
Arizona State v. Texas Tech
Lots of offense in this one, as the teams combine to average more than 90 passes a game. Tech stumbles in at 7-5, losing five straight in the meat of their conference schedule. Whereas, Arizona State comes in with losing to only two teams: Stanford and Notre Dame, and they easily could’ve beaten the Irish. On paper, this should be all Devils, but what scares me is ASU is 0-3 in the Holiday Bowl, and they had their sights set on the Rose Bowl this year. But, they are a much better team, and their offense will cause lots of problems for Tech’s defense which was exposed in their five game skid against Oklahoma (38), Oklahoma State (52), Kansas State (49), Baylor (63), and Texas (41). ASU should get a Holiday Bowl win finally.
Gambling angle: Interesting angle’s here: the PAC-10 doesn’t win (3-9 straight up), but favorites cover (14-3), which is quite the conundrum as ASU is a 14-point favorite. The over 70 looks good (even though it’s the second highest O/U this bowl season), and I’ll lean towards ASU winning, but Tech covering the +14.
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – Dec. 31, 12:30pm EST ESPN
Arizona v. Boston College
Two of the best running backs in the country face off in this one, and I’m sure you’ll hear the announcers say that a dozen or so times. Boston College’s claim to fame this year was only losing to Florida State by 14. UofSuck’s claim to fame was beating Oregon. They both lost to USC, though BC lost worse. That’s enough for me to pick UofSuck.
Gambling angle: Favorites are 7-3 against the spread and the four of the last five here played under. So let’s take UofSuck -7.5 and under 57 as the clock’s going to move quick in this one.
Hyundai Sun Bowl – Dec. 31, 2:00pm EST CBS
Virginia Tech v. UCLA
UCLA’s offense versus Virginia Tech’s defense will be the highlight here. As usual, Va Tech will bring a stingy defense and attempt a ball controlled offense, but they haven’t seen speed like this UCLA team has. UCLA put up 35 on USC just a couple weeks ago, and I expect them to do the same here.
Gambling angle: I’ll take UCLA -7 and the under 47.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Dec 31, 4:00pm EST ESPN
Rice v. Mississippi State
Mississippi State needed an overtime upset over rival Ole Miss to get to bowl eligibility, and they beat Arkansas in overtime the week before to even make a bowl appearance possible. That’s 0-8 in the SEC, Arkansas, in case you forgot. Rice won 10 games and blew out Marshall in the Conference USA Championship and actually played pretty competitively against A&M early in the season. This is one of the few times I’ll pick against the SEC. Go Rice!
Gambling angle: The underdogs have covered eight out of nine here and the under has hit 10 out of the last 14. So, if I had to put action on this game, Rice +7.5 and the under 50.5
Chick-fil-A Bowl – Dec. 31, 8:00pm EST ESPN
Duke v. Texas A&M
We get to see Johnny Manziel one last time before he heads to a complete failure of a career in the NFL (if RG3 can’t cut it, neither will Mr. Football). Duke’s defense kept them in games (even in the FSU game, they were in it for a couple quarters), and with plenty of rest, let’s look for that to continue. A&M probably pulls it out in the end, but I think it’ll be closer than many think.
Gambling angle: The SEC is 5-3 straight up in the last eight here, but I like Duke +12.5; and let’s take the under 73.5 (highest O/U of the bowls) as Manziel isn’t going to be able to run wild against Duke’s defense (how many just mentally pictured Bobby Hurley slapping the court?).
Well that’s it for the pre-New Year’s Games!
Until next time…
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