After week 1, we officially have more questions than answers. Well, except for one question we now know the answer to: no, South Carolina won’t win the SEC, won’t get into the playoff, and probably won’t even compete in the SEC East. Ouch. It’s one thing to lose the opening game; it’s another to do so at home as a double digit favorite while giving up the most yardage ever to a pass happy team that had lost their QB, best WR, and starting left tackle to the NFL draft. Good thing I didn’t have South Carolina making a run this year to the playoff. Oops. Enough about that, let’s take a look a few more things we learned (and a few more questions we have) after week 1:
1) In our search for answers, you can divide week 1 into 1) teams that didn’t play anyone and took care of business (looking at you Oregon, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Baylor, Stanford, Ole Miss, ASU, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Missouri), 2) teams that had some decent opponents but didn’t really struggle (specifically Auburn and USC), 3) ranked matchups (A&M/South Carolina, Georgia/Clemson, and LSU/Wisconsin) where the better teams clearly one, and 4) four games where top-10 teams struggled (FSU, Alabama, Ohio State, and UCLA). Of those, the Ohio State game was the least of a surprise. Navy is a good team, and Ohio State has to re-tool that offense. Still, when all was done, Ohio State had won comfortably. FSU, Alabama, and UCLA? Not so much…
2) Sure, UCLA had to travel across the country and play essentially a 9am (Pacific time kickoff) against an average Virginia team; but they needed three defensive TD’s to pull off the victory and avoid the upset. That’s not a good start for a team many have winning the PAC-12, getting into the playoff, and having a QB in the Heisman discussion (big step backwards for Hundley).
3) Florida State found out exactly how a hard it is to repeat in their opening week challenge against a pesky Oklahoma State team that just wouldn’t go away. I’ll call it a combination of rust and cockiness for the Seminoles, but I also am already looking forward to Bedlam on December 6th. If Oklahoma State can continue to play like they did on Saturday, and build upon that through their Big 12 schedule, they could have the chance to knock Boomer Sooner out of the playoff. The loss did pretty much eliminate Oklahoma State from the playoff though, especially since there are probably a couple more losses on the table.
4) We’ve seen Alabama open up their season against quality Power 5 conference teams over and over, and the results are always the same: ‘Bama up by two to three TDs after one, giving up a FG or fewer by the end of the half, and then coasting to an easy victory. But, at halftime against WVU, they were only up by a FG, and had already given up 17 points. Still, the victory really wasn’t ever in doubt in the 2nd half, and I think Alabama will be just fine, especially if Sims keeps handing it off 40 or more times to Yeldon and Henry. The biggest concern for Alabama right now is injuries – more on that later.
5) Maybe these were just pre-season jitters and adjustments for new personnel for FSU, Alabama, and UCLA. Maybe Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Virginia are much better teams than we thought. Or maybe these teams with high expectations are already feeling the pressure of the playoff system. My thought is that it’s a combination of the first two, and that the latter certainly didn’t come into play this early in the season.
6) Of all the ranked versus unranked games I found most impressive was USC’s thrashing of Fresno State, especially with all of the off the field drama surrounding USC the last couple of weeks. Now, Fresno isn’t the team they were last year, but for the Trojans to put on a performance like they did showed that Sarkisian is in control of this team. Big test in Palo Alto this weekend to see what could wind up being a preview of the PAC-12 Championship later this year.
7) Les Miles in the only coach in the country that could pull off a fake punt call with the wrong personnel in the game, have it succeed, and have it result in yet another come from behind win. Wisconsin was in control of that game for nearly three quarters. But in the end, LSU knows how to win close games, and Wisconsin sure knows how to lose them. It’s nothing new for the Badgers to seemingly snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory time and time again in big games recently. The best stat from this one? LSU is now 22-21 in games under Les Miles where they trailed entering the fourth quarter. That’s impressive.
8) Many are saying the most impressive performance in week 1 was Georgia taking down Clemson in Athens. I have to agree, especially how the game unfolded – Clemson takes a 21-14 lead and then Heisman hopeful Todd Gurley runs the ensuing kick back 100 yards for the equalizer, and then adds two more long TD runs in the 4th to seal it. This may be Georgia’s year finally, with a fairly favorable SEC schedule. But they’ve gotta take care of business next week against South Carolina.
9) I still think the PAC-12 is going to wind up being the better, deeper conference compared to the SEC this year. But, they didn’t help my case this weekend. Sure, Vandy turned it over seven times and lost to Temple; but Washington barely survived Hawaii, Washington State lost at home to Rutgers, preseason conference champ pick UCLA struggled against Virginia, and Colorado lost at home to Colorado State. And, Cal beating Northwestern isn’t nearly as impressive as Georgia beating Clemson and LSU beating Wisconsin. So, week 1 advantage goes to the SEC. Week 2 goes to the PAC-12 just because of the Oregon-Michigan State game. They toughest SEC game this weekend is East Carolina @ South Carolina. Then again, UTSA is going to beat UofSuck this weekend which won’t do the PAC-12 any favors.
10) Several teams have had some significant injuries already in week 1. I wonder how that will wind up affecting the playoff committee’s selections come December? We see it in college basketball all of the time – a team deserving of a one seed gets bumped down to a two or three seed (or worse) because of late injuries. Will something like that happen with football? Think about this scenario – an undefeated Alabama barely beats Auburn at the end of the year and loses Yeldon due to injury and he’s out for the SEC Championship Game against a one-loss Georgia team. Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship, but the playoff is three weeks away and Yeldon will be back by then. Does a one-loss, non-SEC Champion Alabama get into the playoff (especially considering the SEC Champion regardless of number of losses is in)? Well, time will tell. And as I’ve always said in the Autumn Wind – these things always have a way of working themselves out, especially in the last month of the season.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (1-0) – If you play Clemson as close as you played Oklahoma State, I’m dropping you like third period French.
#2. Oklahoma (1-0) – @ West Virginia on September 20th looks a bit more interesting all of the sudden.
#3. UCLA (1-0) – Your offense better get things together or you’re gonna get hooked by the Horns in two weeks.
#4. Alabama (1-0) – You win in week 1, your two-headed running back committee goes for over 200 yards, Sims throws for 250, and the defense was pretty good. And everyone is saying “what’s wrong with Alabama?” Well, just part of the “process.”
#5. Oregon (1-0) – My goal in keeping you outside of the Top 4 right now is so you earn it; rather than the last three years of disappointment. That, and this week’s matchup against a very similar style to that of Stanford.
#6. Michigan State (1-0) – Big 10’s best hope to get into the playoff is for you to win the September Rose Bowl.
#7. Auburn (1-0) – Brutal schedule upcoming: @ Kansas State, v. LSU, @ Mississippi State, v. South Carolina, @ Ole Miss, v. Texas A&M, @ Georgia, @ Alabama. With that schedule, two losses may get you in the Top 4.
#8. Georgia (1-0) – Take care of South Carolina on the road in a couple weeks, and a 9-0 start is well within reach before Auburn comes to Athens on November 15th.
#9. LSU (1-0) – A&M should probably be up here, but the win against Wisconsin is going to prove to be more impressive as every week goes on.
#10.Baylor (1-0) – ‘Cuz I just can’t have 5 SEC teams in the Top 10.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – But, he’s going to need a solid performance and a win against Michigan State this weekend; as everyone is talking about Gurley from Georgia (and rightfully so – that was a Heisman performance in week 1 against Clemson).
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Georgia
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – I’ve got a bad feeling this prediction isn’t going to last long…but which team will be the first to fall? Considering the schedule and injuries, it’ll be Alabama. Then again, for the remainder of September, FSU’s schedule is much more difficult than Alabama’s.
Week 2 Big Games:
USC @ Stanford – Shaw and Sark don’t like each other. USC wants to go fast, Stanford wants to go slow. Stanford has lost of experience (especially on defense), but USC has seemed to pick up Sark’s system in no time. Stanford’s won 17 straight in a row at home (longest streak in the nation), but plays the type of games that are always close and can allow for weird things to happen (see @ Utah last year). I really like Stanford’s program and what Shaw’s done, and I absolutely hate USC, but I think USC pulls the shocker: 27 to 24.
Michigan @ Notre Dame – The last scheduled game between these two rivals, and Michigan looks to play spoiler under the lights in South Bend. Notre Dame is the better team this year, but that rarely matters in this series (though the home team has won the last three). With the exception of last year, the previous four were decided by six or fewer points, including several with multiple comebacks in the final minutes. I hate picking a winner in this game, so I’ll just pick Michigan. If they win I’ll be happy I’m right, and if Notre Dame wins, I’ll gladly stand up and sway while singing “Notre Dame, Our Mother” one last time in this series. Michigan 34 Notre Dame 31.
Week 2 Game of the Week:
Michigan State @ Oregon – If anyone other than Stanford can slow down the Ducks, it’s Michigan State. Very similar styles – ball control offense, and a swarming defense. But, Stanford has the experience of playing Oregon’s speed every year. Michigan State does not. And, it’s a long road trip for the Spartans. Finally, Oregon has a chip on their shoulder and has a chance in the national spotlight to say “don’t forget about us.” Look for the Ducks to fly high in Eugene: Oregon 41 Michigan State 20.
Until next time…
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