It’s one of my biggest pet peeves when the pollsters move a team way down in the polls for winning, or worse when they move someone way up when the teams above them keep winning. If you really felt Oregon was the #2 team in the country, why did you wait for them the beat Michigan State to make them #2? Especially when Alabama shut out their opponent in a lightning shortened game. Now, that being said, one team that does deserve to move down (despite winning) is UCLA. Yikes, two wins by the narrowest of margins against Virginia and Memphis? That’s not a good start for what many have predicted to be the PAC-12 winners. But, we’ll know more about UCLA when they take on Texas this weekend and when they travel to the desert (or is it rain forest?) to take on ASU on Thursday September 25th. But, in the meantime, I’m moving UCLA down in my poll.
1) The playoff picture got a bit clearer, as the Big 10 is obviously not going to make it. Not a good week at all for that conference. When your shining moments are Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland staring off 2-0; you’ve got problems. The bigger problem is when in the hell did Rutgers and Maryland join the Big 10?
2) Really the only chance for the Big 10 is for Nebraska to run the table. But, the Husker’s have tough road games at Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Iowa. And the Husker’s road resume isn’t very good since joining the B1G. Their home resume almost took a big hit this weekend against FCS McNeese State. If it wasn’t for Abdullah’s heroics in the final minute, Nebraska probably loses that game in O.T.
3) I don’t know why, but I always take great pleasure in seeing Ohio State lose, especially at home. Maybe it’s because it doesn’t happen very often, or maybe it’s because when it does happen, it’s to a team like Virginia Tech that all of the sudden is playing Beamer Ball again. And that’s a good thing.
4) One more thought on the Big 10 – and that’s Michigan. Wow, what an anticlimactic finish to the Notre Dame & Michigan rivalry. I know both coaches tried to downplay the significance of it before the game, but I think Michigan took that a little too literally and completely forgot to show up. Notre Dame has looked pretty good in their first two, and if they can find a way to beat Stanford in South Bend in a few weeks, they’ll be in the Top 10 when they head off for their first true road game of the year: October 18th @ Tallahassee. And unless FSU gets their act together, that could be an upset in the making against the Seminoles (or at least you can be sure Lou Holtz will predict it that way!).
5) I said in the USC/Stanford preview last week that Stanford “plays the type of games that are always close and can allow for weird things to happen.” Advancing all nine of their offensive possessions to inside the USC 35 yard line and walking away with 10 total points definitely fits that bill. Stanford should’ve beaten USC by 21-24 points, but instead lose by a FG because their offense and kicking game weren’t able to close to out in the red-ish zone. Sure, I’ll give USC’s defense a bit of credit too, but I’m not sold on USC yet, though they have shown that they can win games in a variety of ways this year so far. We’ll know more on October 4th when ASU brings a real offense to the Coliseum.
6) The most impressive thing I saw in the Oregon/Michigan State game was that the momentum was turned not by the Ducks explosive offense, but by their defense. Call it second half adjustments, call it conditioning, call if confidence, call it experience; but whatever you call it, Oregon finally grew up Saturday. They aren’t the flashy team that’s going to score 50+ points a game, but then give up against the Stanford’s of the world when the going gets tough. Things got tough against Sparty, and the Ducks finally responded. With the Stanford loss to USC, the PAC-12 officially goes through Eugene (especially with that road trip to Pasadena in a few weeks not looking nearly as scary). Not to say there isn’t a loss out there though; I still think the PAC-12 is going to beat each other up and when the dust settles, there likely won’t be an undefeated team left in the conference which may hurt them in playoff considerations.
7) While a few of the top ranked teams have struggled so far this year, Oklahoma, Baylor, and A&M have been lighting it up against everyone. Oklahoma and Baylor will continue to do so, until they meet on November 8th, and A&M will continue to roll for the next few weeks, but look at how their schedule closes out: v. Ole Miss, @ Alabama, @ Auburn, v. Missouri, v. LSU. Okay, there’s a UL Monroe in there as well, but does anyone think they can run that gauntlet without a loss? I sure don’t.
8) Arizona State’s offense has been looking great as expected, but it’s still a bit scary to look on the other side of the ball and see all of those ju-co transfers. That’s worked fine against Weber State and New Mexico, and will work fine against Colorado this weekend, but then their schedule goes all A&M on them: UCLA, USC, and Stanford in three straight; followed up with games against Washington and Notre Dame. It was interesting to see on one of the broadcasts that ASU is actually the PAC-12 team with the longest drought in the entire conference of not finishing in the Top-10 in the country. Looks like that’s gonna continue.
9) For our weekly comparisons of the PAC-12 versus SEC, let’s just do something to save us all the trouble in future comparisons – the Autumn Wind is kicking Vandy out of the SEC and Washington State out of the PAC-12. This week’s comment refers to defense. Who would’ve thought five years ago that the PAC-12 would be the defensive conference and the SEC would the wild west of offenses? Well, that’s what appears to have happened. So far.
10) There’s going to be some tough decisions for the committee to make if things progress as I’m anticipating. Which is, undefeated ACC and Big 12 champions, and a bunch of one and two loss teams from the PAC-12 and SEC. The Big 10 is out, and the AAC was never in. You keep hearing about SEC fatigue, but the polls have 5 SEC teams in the Top 10 compared to just two for the PAC-12. That’s why I still think there’s going to be two SEC teams in the playoff, Georgia (as a result of beating Auburn or A&M in the SEC Championship), and Alabama (as a result of one regular season loss and no SEC Championship appearance).
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (2-0) – It’s now obvious they aren’t going to cruise through every game like they did last regular season.
#2. Oklahoma (2-0) – But, Oklahoma probably will.
#3. Alabama (2-0) – Undefeated, one loss, two losses, or even three losses are all a possibility.
#4. Georgia (1-0) – The stars appear to be aligning.
#5. Oregon (2-0) – Only team with a major statement win so far.
#6. Auburn (2-0) – Not sneaking up on anyone this year, but still rolling. Errrr…..War Eaglin’….
#7. LSU (2-0) – Someone’s gonna survive the SEC West – could be Miles and Co.
#8. UCLA (2-0) – Yikes. They need to get things figured out quick.
#9. Baylor (2-0) – I can see a scenario lining up where you’re the only undefeated team.
#10.USC (2-0) – Nice win over Stanford, but let’s be honest; they left A LOT of points out there in your red zone.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – Bad time for a bye week for Gurley; Mariota leads a second half comeback against Michigan State, and is still my pick for the Heisman. He wasn’t flashy, but he didn’t make any errors; and he showed a maturity and confidence that Oregon overall has lacked when falling behind the last couple of years. But, this weekend Georgia has South Carolina while Oregon has Wyoming. And neither team plays anyone of consequence for the next few weeks so it may leave the door open for someone else to sneak into the picture. But for now it’s Mariota and Gurley running neck and neck.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Georgia
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – So many uncertainties still, especially with how poorly (or at least underachieving) the top ranked teams (outside of Oregon and Auburn) have played so far. But, I’ll stick with this for now.
Week 3 Big Games:
UCLA v. Texas – Desperation for both teams. UCLA was supposed to run away with the PAC-12, but they’re not even to conference play yet and they’ve almost found ways to lose to Virginia and Memphis. Texas was blown out by BYU (again), and is still searching for their identity under Charlie Strong. The game’s at a “neutral” site, but in Texas; but UCLA is more experienced, and already tested (though, they shouldn’t have been tested by Virginia or Memphis). Texas can pull the upset, but they don’t. UCLA gets back on track right before conference play. UCLA 41 Texas 27.
Week 3 Game of the Week:
Georgia @ South Carolina – It’s only week 3, but this is probably the SEC Semi-final. Despite losing to A&M in week 1, and struggling a bit with East Carolina, the Gamecocks are back at home. Georgia’s off a bye and can really distance themselves not only in the race for the SEC East, but also for a solid shot at the playoff. South Carolina had won three straight in the series before last year’s loss, but Georgia had won 7 out of 8 before that. Look for the same game plan Georgia had against Clemson: a steady dose of Gurley, early and often, and look for the same result. Georgia 45 South Carolina 24.
Until next time…
No comments:
Post a Comment