Three weeks in, and we know this much: there is no SEC fatigue. We’ve heard about it for years, yet the results are still the same. The conference has eight teams ranked in the Top 18. Hell, the SEC West alone has five in the Top-10. I said it in my preseason post; I don’t see a way the SEC does not get two teams in the playoff. But, the biggest reason that scenario won’t happen is the SEC East has already beaten each other up, and the SEC West will get around to that in due time. The only way the SEC gets two teams in is if they wind up with a one loss team that doesn’t make the conference championship (like Alabama last year). I just don’t see a way the committee votes in essentially a rematch of a conference championship. But remember, four out of the last five years, the SEC has had two teams in the final four at the end of the year anyway. I’ve been saying all year it is going to happen, but the more I watch the SEC (particularly the West) play, I see a bunch of great teams, but not one or two incredibly dominant teams like we’ve seen the last several years. So, throw in injuries, schedules, and other factors (these still are 18-20 year old kids we’re talking about) and the more realistic scenario is that the SEC does indeed only get one team in. That’s good news for Oregon and others, as we get into this Top-10 recap:
1) That parity is showing itself throughout college football. Nine of the current Top-25 teams already have one loss. No one has looked really dominant outside of Baylor, and they haven’t played anyone. Teams are already victims of the “what have you done for us lately” mentality from the pollsters. USC beat Stanford, but now is ranked behind them because of their loss @ Boston College. Georgia just lost to South Carolina but is still ranked ahead of them, because of South Carolina’s loss to A&M (which outside of Michigan State’s loss to Oregon, is still the best loss of the season so far). Why? Preseason polls. Thankfully, polls won’t make up any formal part of the committee’s rankings and head-to-head will make up a big part of their decisions (as it should, like when Notre Dame beat FSU in 1993 and finished second behind FSU for that National Championship – yeah, I’m still not over that). Side bar: that was also the year Auburn finished 12-0 and #4 in the polls. Oh how things have changed in 20 years. Can you imagine an SEC team finishing undefeated in not in the Top 2? (Then again, let’s just forget about the pesky NCAA probation that Auburn team was under).
2) Okay – back to 2014…I think the most surprising upset over the weekend was East Carolina over Virginia Tech. Va Tech had just gone in to the Horseshoe and beaten Ohio State and then found themselves down 21-0 to East Carolina in the 1st quarter (and it easily could’ve been 38-0). They just didn’t look like the same team that beat Ohio State the week before.
3) USC on the other hand, showed serious defensive weaknesses last weekend against Stanford. The difference was that Boston College actually scored as they marched up and down the field against USC. Stanford did the same thing, but just didn’t capitalize. I think Stanford’s biggest weakness (as I’ve mentioned many times before) is that they play a style of ball very conducive to close games, and that often costs them against good teams. And I think part of that is coaching. I love Shaw as a coach, but I’m not sold on his ability to manage a game the way a Saban or a Miles or Sumlin do. Let’s look back at Stanford’s losses this year and the last two years. 2014: lost to USC by three, 2013; lost to Utah by six, USC by three, and Michigan State by four; 2012: lost to Washington by four and Notre Dame by seven (in O.T.). All of their losses the last two plus years have been by seven or less. Now, they have won their share of close games against good teams as well (2012: USC by seven, Oregon State by four, Oregon by three, UCLA by three, Wisconsin by six; 2013: Washington by three, Oregon by three, Notre Dame by seven). Keep that in mind as the PAC-12 North continues this year – USC’s defense sucks, Stanford has a history of close games, so it’s Oregon who has a chance to fly away with the PAC-12 North.
4) On to the PAC-12 South, UCLA continues to be the worst 3-0 team this year, but because of the hype surrounding them in the preseason, have continued to stick around in the upper end of the polls. But now they have a week off before a Thursday game with ASU, then a visit from improved Utah, before the huge showdown with Oregon on October 11th. They then play some mediocre PAC-12 teams before closing with USC and Stanford. Last year, Auburn made a season by winning improbable game after improbable game; can UCLA do that this year? Well, their game against ASU may be a bit easier since ASU’s QB is possibly out with a still-to-be-disclosed injury (I watched the replay a dozen times and the only thing I can think is turf toe or stress fracture in the ankle; but the Devil’s coaching staff won’t talk about it at all).
5) So a couple upsets and near upsets leads us to Georgia and South Carolina as the most exciting big game of the day. South Carolina’s defense played better, but their turnovers on offense nearly cost them. In the game that no one seemed to want to win, Georgia seemed to content to play for a game tying FG late (which they of course missed) rather than get Gurley the ball and go for the go ahead score. It was fitting that the game pretty much ended with a 4th and two inch QB sneak resulting in a first down by literally one millimeter (and I actually believe they got that spot right). So, the SEC East is wide open with a combined conference record of 2-4 and Florida sitting in the best position right now (which is of course going to change soon).
6) The long season from the Longhorns got even longer when they couldn’t even execute the coin toss properly against UCLA. UCLA won the toss and deferred to the second half, and Texas turned around and elected to play defense, essentially giving UCLA a free possession, which in turn helped UCLA pull out a victory. That was the second oddest coin toss result I’ve seen; followed by the one where Jerome Bettis (playing for the Steelers) clearly called tails, and the ref said “he called heads; heads is the call.”
7) Despite youth, suspensions, injuries, and academic inquiries, Notre Dame is off to a 3-0 start for the second time in three years (and only the first time they’ve done that in 25 years. Wow). They’ve got a week off before Syracuse, and then Stanford comes to South Bend. The polls have the Irish in the Top 10, but I do not. Golson has been playing well, and defense looks pretty good, but looking at this team and their schedule, 9-3 would be a miracle. That isn’t Top-10 material.
8) Virginia has now beaten a ranked team (Louisville) and should’ve beaten another ranked team (UCLA). Are they going to be the sleeper team in the ACC to make some noise? We’ll know more after they travel to BYU this weekend to take on another underrated team. Looking at BYU’s schedule, it’s hard to see a loss out there (v. Nevada, @ UCF, @ Cal, maybe?).
9) Much like Virginia Tech, Oregon forgot to show up in the first quarter. But, well, it was against Wyoming, not East Carolina, and Oregon isn’t Virginia Tech. When the dust settled, Oregon had blown out the Cowboys, helped in part by a defense that forced three turnovers. If Oregon stays healthy on offense, and if their defense can continue to generate some turnovers, they’ll be just fine. Another cupcake this weekend against Washington State, and then UofSuck comes to Eugene on Thursday October 2nd and the Ducks have revenge on their mind for that one.
10) I keep saying this is the year that the PAC-12 overtakes the SEC as the best overall conference. Then USC loses to unranked Boston College, UofSuck struggles with Nevada, and UCLA barely survives a bad Texas team. The SEC took care of business in non-con play this weekend, with the exception of Tennessee losing to Oklahoma; but even then the Vols looked better against the Sooners than many thought. Oh well, just another year of SEC supremacy, I guess.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (2-0) – Chance for a statement game this weekend against Clemson. You’ve owned the Tigers in Tallahassee the last twenty years.
#2. Oklahoma (3-0) – A solid defense and a pretty good offense. Oh, and Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State all at home.
#3. Alabama (3-0) – Schedule is shaping up nicely; @ Ole Miss after a bye, A&M at home, and @ LSU after a bye.
#4. Oregon (3-0) – Only two currently ranked teams remaining on the schedule (@ UCLA and v. Stanford), and the huge strength of schedule win over Michigan State. Still need to win the PAC-12 to make it to the playoff though.
#5. Auburn (2-0) – Of your remaining schedule, seven are in the Top 20. Good luck with that.
#6. LSU (3-0) – @ Auburn in a few weeks. But first you need to take care of pesky Mississippi State.
#7. UCLA (3-0) – Overrated or underachiever? We’ll know more next Thursday when you take on ASU. Now, get healthy.
#8. Baylor (3-0) – Five more preseason games until November 8, @ Oklahoma. You better keep scoring ~60 a game; style points will matter for you.
#9. Texas A&M (3-0) – Still not sold on A&M, but you’ve a few weeks to solidify your Top-10 ranking before that brutal schedule kicks in. A little hint, out of Ole Miss, Alabama, UL Monroe, Auburn, and Missouri, I wouldn’t have scheduled UL Monroe after a bye.
#10. Arizona State (3-0) – But only by default. I can’t have another SEC team in my Top-10 as the losses are going to come eventually. And I can’t have Notre Dame here; they’re just not a Top-10 team (right now, at least). And, ASU has a bye, so it “bye’s” me another week to figure out #10. And finally with their next three games v. UCLA, @ USC, and v. Stanford we’ll know soon enough is ASU is Top-10 material.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – Over/under on how many times his dive into the endzone will be shown on preview commercials or Heisman updates? I’m thinking 17.5.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Oregon – FSU is one of the few teams that can match Oregon’s speed, and their defense is as good as their offense.
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama – I just want to see this matchup in a game that matters, not some crappy BCS bowl game that Alabama doesn’t care about - if nothing else, for the press blurbs from Stoops and Saban.
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – Until there’s reason to believe otherwise, I’m sticking with this. FSU is a three TD favorite against a ranked Clemson team this weekend, and Alabama is back to that usual 42/10 scoring/defense average.
Week 4 Big Games:
Auburn @ Kansas State – As most are gearing up for their conference schedules, we get a nice Thursday match up on ranked non-con teams in a game that does have some national implications. Auburn’s on the road, and Kansas State doesn’t feel like they’re getting any respect in the Big 12. A win over a Top 5 team could certainly add Kansas State into the discussion. But, Auburn’s too strong, and KSU nearly lost to Iowa State last week. Iowa State! Keep an eye on the forecast though. The rain may be the only thing that can slow down the Tiger. Auburn 45 Kansas State 17
Florida @ Alabama – Florida needed triple O.T. to topple Kentucky, but now they stumble into Tuscaloosa with a hungry Alabama team ready to get rolling into SEC play. Florida’s going to come out excited, but it won’t take long for Alabama to take over and control the game. Just another step in the process for Saban and the Tide. Alabama 38 Florida 13.
Week 4 Game of the Week:
Clemson @ Florida State – Remember that leading up to last year’s Clemson/FSU game, it was Clemson that was higher ranked and had national championship ambitions. Of course, FSU clobbered Clemson and ran away with the Championship. Florida State hasn’t played well yet this year, but Clemson doesn’t have the Boyd to Watkins connection anymore and their defense isn’t stellar. And, FSU has owned Clemson in Tallahassee in recent times: winning 10 out of the last 11. Florida State 31 Clemson 10
Until next time…
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