We saw two main themes this weekend: the Top-4 are all beatable, and the SEC-West is stacked (undefeated in games against everyone else, except themselves). And the two points are related since the SEC-West has four teams in the Top-10 and six in the Top-17. Also, the Big 10 is back, and the bottom of the Top-10 is getting muddier and muddier as teams start to fall (I still insist that Notre Dame is not a Top-10 team; beat Stanford in a couple weeks and we’ll talk). More on that, as we get into this Top-10 recap:
1) Of the Top-7 teams that played this weekend, only Texas A&M appears flawless, but again, outside of their opening game @ South Carolina, they haven’t played anyone (sorry, Lamar, Rice, and SMU). But that all changes this weekend. A&M eases into SEC-West play against 3-1 Arkansas, and then plays Ole Miss, Mississippi, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU as five of their last seven (and three of those are on the road). I don’t think they’re going to be winning many of those 73-3 or 58-6.
2) Of the other Top-6 teams, Alabama had the easiest time, but that was mainly because of Florida’s porous secondary. Simms nearly set the Alabama single game passing record, and Amari Cooper is now in the Heisman race after 201 yards receiving and three TD’s on only 10 catches. But, Alabama also turned it over four times. That’ll work against Florida, but not against the SEC-West. They’ve got a week to clean things up before they head over to Ole Miss on October 4th.
3) If Oregon is going to win the PAC-12 and contend in the playoff, they’ve got to get healthy on the offensive line. Despite Mariota’s ridiculous numbers (21-25 for 329 yards, 5 TD’s, and 0 INT’s), it’s not good when you’re sacked almost twice as many times as incompletions thrown (seven vs. four). Oregon’s defense has to get better too, especially with some other high powered offenses coming up, specifically UofSuck in two weeks on Thursday night. Good win for Oregon, but you really shouldn’t be in a dog fight into the 4th quarter with Washington State. The Washington State team that hasn’t been good since the Ryan Leaf days, and more recently, the Washington State team that lost to Rutgers and Nevada (but hey, they did beat Portland State).
4) Three turnovers, three missed FG’s. And a loss by six to a Top-5 team. That’s how close Kansas State was to a signature win and getting themselves tossed in the playoff discussion. They held Auburn’s vaunted ground game in check, but their offense and special teams didn’t do them any favors. Still, the loss highlighted a couple key factors for all teams to remember: don’t turn the ball over, and make your FG’s. We’ve seen it time and time again how big FG’s are in college football – remember Oregon against Stanford and Alabama against LSU a couple years ago? Games both decided because the better team missed key FG’s (and not long ones, either). The other thing worth noting about this game: Thursday night games between ranked teams are usually very exciting, and often result in upsets. Next up for Thursday games: UCLA @ ASU this week.
5) Oklahoma’s been getting a lot of love from the various power rankings due to their win @ West Virginia. I think the main reason is that they beat WVU in their place by 12, whereas Alabama only beat them by 10 on a neutral field. I still think that of the Top-5, Oklahoma and Alabama both have yet to be tested (if we’re using West Virginia at the benchmark that should say something). But, what isn’t being talked about it is what role West Virginia may have in deciding the Big 12 and the playoff. They’ve already played both Alabama and Oklahoma close, and they have Baylor and Kansas State at home later this year. The Mountaineers could be playing spoiler in the Big 12.
6) I really don’t want to talk much about FSU. Sure, they beat Clemson (even though Clemson only scored on three of seven trips into the red zone) without their star QB, and now the only one in their path to the playoff and potentially another National Championship is Notre Dame. But, I’m sick of all of the media coverage around this troublemaker Winston. I do applaud FSU for suspending him for the full game rather than just a half, but his rap sheet is getting longer than most rappers, and he’s only a sophomore. I guess one good thing is that he won’t repeat as Heisman winner, and I do hope he grows up a bit, as he is a great talent. But what we’re seeing with Winston is a near direct correlation to what we’re seeing in the NFL headlines these days: many of these players have no accountability because from the time they were 12 years old, their bad behavior has been swept aside and/or covered up because of their athletic talent. And that’s just wrong. These players need to be taught that their off-the-field behavior and accomplishments are what’s going to carry them through life, not the few years they spend between the hedges. Lest they wind up like ex-Phoenix Sun Rex Chapman and countless other broke, criminal, ex-athletes.
7) Mississippi State did something that few do: roll into Death Valley on a Saturday night and beat LSU. But, they almost did what so many others do – allow 4th quarter comeback victories to Les Miles and crew. Despite sucking it up for 3+ quarters, and being down 24 early in the 4th, at the end LSU had the ball and a chance to win. What a wild final few minutes full of, in my opinion, poor coaching decisions. LSU scored with 12+ minutes remaining in the 4th and chose to go for two to cut the lead to 16. The math may add up (cut the lead down to two TD’s and two two-point conversions), but the probabilities do not – there’s no way you’re going to get three TD’s and three two-point conversions in a row. Then, Miss St had a chance to kick a FG to go back up 21, but went for it instead and got stuffed. Then LSU scores again, and now really has to go for two (I guess) and they miss again. Finally, Miss St gives the ball back to LSU and they score quickly and kick the PAT to make it 34-29 and then wind up with ball again in the closing seconds. Had Miles just kicked the PAT’s earlier in the 4th, it’s probably a 34-31 game, and they only need a FG to tie, rather than a Hail Mary to win. That’s why they always say to avoid going for two early.
8) Speaking of Hail Mary’s, in a game no one watched, UofSuck scored 36 points against Cal. In the 4th quarter. Including the game winning TD on a 47-yard heave as time expired to win 49-45. All I gotta say about that is: Thursday October 2nd, UofSuck @ Oregon (revenge game for the Ducks); take the over, I don’t care if it’s at 80+.
9) Finally a good week for the Big 10. They went 12-1 over the weekend, and while many of those wins were against the likes of Eastern Michigan, Massachusetts, Texas State, Southern Illinois; there were victories over Navy, Miami, and of course, Indiana’s shocking upset over Missouri. The lone loss? Michigan at the not-so-Big House against a pretty good Utah team. It’s going to be a long year for the Wolverines, and you can bet the search for a new head coach is on, as Brady Hoke is struggling both on the field and in the Midwest recruiting battles.
10) The playoff picture is largely unchanged from last week. FSU has the upper hand because of their remaining schedule. The SEC-West, the PAC-12, and Big 12 are all setting themselves up to beat each other up which is going to make the choices for #4 especially difficult. I think we all agree an undefeated FSU ACC Champion is in, so is the SEC Champion regardless of record. An undefeated PAC-12 and/or Big 12 Champion are in as well. So, that’s the easy part. If you’re FSU, Oregon, Oklahoma/Baylor, and someone in the SEC-West (other than Arkansas), win out in you’re in. But, the losses are going to come, and I’ve a couple top teams on upset alert this weekend. Bring on October….
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (3-0) – One ranked team left on your schedule: Notre Dame. Flashback to 1993’s Game of the Century?
#2. Oklahoma (4-0) – Kansas State, Baylor, and Okie State all at home.
#3. Alabama (4-0) – November 15th, v. Mississippi State. The week after @ LSU. If they survive Death Valley, they better respond at home. Remember what happened a few years back after Death Valley? A&M jumped all over Alabama in Tuscaloosa before they even knew what hit them.
#4. Oregon (4-0) – A week off to get the line healthy.
#5. Auburn (3-0) – Louisiana Tech this weekend, then it’s LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Ole Miss, A&M, Georgia; a break with Samford, and then the Iron Bowl. Wow.
#6. Texas A&M (4-0) – Other than Alabama, your schedule may be the most favorable in the SEC-West, if there is such a thing as a favorable SEC-West schedule this year.
#7. UCLA (3-0) – I vowed to keep you in the Top-10 until you lose, which will be sooner rather than later…
#8. Baylor (3-0) – Five more games to get fat before travelling to Norman on November 8th.
#9. Michigan State (2-1) – Let’s face it, despite the woes of the B1G, MSU loss is still more impressive than anyone else’s, and they should run the table.
#10. Arizona State (3-0) – I can’t have BYU or Notre Dame here; so it’s ASU for now.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota, Oregon – More TD’s than incompletions this week, and no INT’s to date this year. But, Amari Cooper from Alabama is officially on your heels.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Oregon – Let’s put the point spread at FSU -2.5.
#2 Oklahoma v. #3 Alabama – I’d set it at Alabama -3.5.
Championship: Florida State over Alabama – Though I’m starting to lean a little more towards Oregon v. Alabama.
Week 5 Big Games:
Arkansas @ Texas A&M – Just about every week from now on, the SEC-West is going to feature their own playoff on the road to the SEC Championship and the College Football Playoff. The first big test for A&M within the West, and it’s an Arkansas team that is the only unranked team in the SEC West right now. And it’s going to stay that way. A&M 45 Arkansas 20
Florida State @ N.C. State – A huge, emotional, close win at home for FSU over a rival; followed by a road game against a 4-0 N.C. State team. Don’t laugh. There will be a letdown. Just how big will it be, and can N.C. State capitalize? Ah, no. Florida State firing on all cylinders leading up to their October 18th game against Notre Dame. FSU 58 N.C. State 17.
Week 5 Game of the Week:
UCLA @ Arizona State – Thursday nighter in the desert, and both teams are beat up at QB. Hundley should play, but 5th year starter Taylor Kelly is out for ASU. UCLA hasn’t looked good all year, but has found ways to win all their games. ASU is looking better than expected, but they really haven’t been tested yet. That’ll change in the next six weeks at they take on UCLA, USC, Stanford, Washington, Utah, and Notre Dame (currently a combined 17-2). Without Kelly, ASU is going to be a bit more one dimensional on offense, but D.J. Foster is up to the task (he was the #3 rusher in the country before their bye week last week). That bodes well for ASU if they can keep it close, and they can considering all three of UCLA’s games have been decided by a TD or less. Upset in the desert: ASU 34 UCLA 27.
Until next time…
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