For the first time ever, five of the Top-8 teams in the AP poll lost on the same weekend. With the way the schedules were lining up, and the failure for any one team to distance themselves from the pack, it wasn’t a matter of if this was going to happen, but when. It also highlights a big problem in college football – preseason polling. Preseason college football polls lately are becoming more and more like Doc Brown’s crazy mind-reader machine. Had you told Dr. Brown back in mid-September what was going to happen in week 6, he would’ve said: “Do you know what this means……it means that this DAMN thing doesn’t work!” Well, that’s becoming more and more true about preseason, and even early season polls, in college football. No need to even begin releasing things until conference play begins. However, despite the massive amount of upsets this weekend (and certainly more to come), the most interesting thing is that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Meaning, the overall playoff picture hasn’t significantly changed much, even though we have few teams new to the top of the polls. More on that, as we get into the Top 10 recap:
1) Despite UCLA’s luck running out finally, and Oregon losing to UofSuck (again), not much has changed in the PAC-12 race. No, UofSuck isn’t a Top-10 team and will quickly lose two or three (or more in the PAC-12). Remember, UofSuck barely beat UTSA and Nevada, and needed a Hail Mary to beat Cal at home. And, despite USC losing on a Hail Mary to ASU (what a bizarre play that was!) and Stanford falling to Notre Dame (in yet another Stanford game decided by seven or less), the PAC-12 race is right where it started out to be: between Oregon and UCLA. And, with the SEC really looking like it’s going to beat each other up now (no offense, Mississippi schools, but I just don’t see the Egg Bowl as the game deciding the SEC West), it still looks like the PAC-12 Champion has a good shot to get to the Final Four. And, we get a preview at that likely PAC-12 Championship this weekend at Oregon heads down to Palo Alto with both teams looking to get back on track.
2) In the Big 12, I called the TCU upset over Oklahoma. Despite being ranked #1 in some of the power polls, Oklahoma wasn’t impressing me, and in some ways were only in that position because of their win over an unmotivated Alabama team in the Sugar Bowl last year. And, Big Game Bob hasn’t been so for about 15 years. But, even with OU going down, the Big 12 Championship (and probably Final Four spot) is probably still going to come down to the Baylor-OU game. Especially because TCU goes down to Baylor this weekend.
3) The most surprising result of the week (including the upsets) was Auburn manhandling LSU and dominating every aspect of that game and handing Les Miles his worst loss as LSU’s coach. LSU had beaten Auburn three straight (including Auburn’s only regular season loss last year), but not only is Auburn’s offense back to firing on all cylinders, but their defense is playing better and better every week. But, it doesn’t get any easier for Auburn now, starting @ Mississippi State this weekend.
4) While most people’s take away from the Alabama/Ole Miss game was the Alabama is/was undefeated, I see things differently (especially if you actually watched the game). Alabama owned that game on both sides of the ball until that key turnover in the 4th quarter on the kick off following the Ole Miss score. And even then, thanks to the blocked extra point on the ensuing touchdown, they were in a position to win the game. Make no mistake, Alabama isn’t the juggernaut this year that they have been in previous years, but even when Alabama makes huge 4th quarter mistakes and misses FG’s, they’re still in position to win games. I still think they have a good chance to come out of the SEC-West, especially because of their experience. Mississippi State and Ole Miss aren’t used to what is going to be mounting pressure each and every week.
5) With Michigan State’s big come-from-ahead win against Nebraska, we’re seeing something interesting happening in the Big 10. While the SEC and PAC-12 start to beat each other up, the Big 10 is extremely happy to be in conference play. Michigan State and Ohio State are starting to run away with the conference, and the early losses by both teams are becoming distant memories. They always say in college football that it’s better to lose early than late (witness Michigan State ahead of Oregon in the polls), and as the prize fighters in the SEC keep knocking each off, it’s starting to look like the Big 10 Champion may sneak into the Top-4.
6) I still insist Notre Dame isn’t a Top-10 team. Sure, that’s a nice win against Stanford this weekend, but they lose that game if Stanford doesn’t make one missed assignment on that key 4th and 11 with a minute to go in the game that allowed Notre Dame to score the winning TD. Big mistakes and turnovers for both teams, but penalties and that missed assignment did Stanford in. But, Notre Dame still has @ Florida State, @ Arizona State, and @ USC (not mention @ pesky Navy). With one loss, Notre Dame will be out of the playoff picture.
7) Speaking of Arizona State and USC, I’ve seen lots of Hail Mary’s over the years, but I’ve never seen one like that, especially because ASU in essence had two Hail Mary’s – scoring on a 73-yard TD reception just a couple minutes earlier. After stopping USC to get the ball back, ASU only needed ~20 yards to get into FG range but opted to go for the Hail Mary. The result was an underthrown pop fly pass caught by an ASU guy in dead sprint as three of four USC players sat there like they were about to fair catch a punt. Arizona State still alive in the PAC-12 South.
8) That ASU Hail Mary was bizarre, but not as bizarre as the trick play TCU pulled off against Oklahoma. After tying the game, OU kicked off to the Horned Frogs. One of TCU’s players (dressed in their dark uniforms) had laid down in the dark painted end zone and was camouflaged. After the receiver caught the kick and started up field, the guy got up and caught a lateral, nearly getting to midfield in the process. But alas, the play was wiped out by a holding penalty. If you didn’t see the play, look it up; it’s pretty good.
9) I’m sold on Mississippi State (which of course means they’ll lose this weekend). Dak Prescott is playing like a Heisman, the defense is solid, the offense controls the ball/clock, and they’ve responded to challenges thusfar in SEC-West play. If they can somehow get by Auburn this week, they’ve a let up in schedule until they head to Tuscaloosa on November 15th.
10) While I wasn’t much of a fan of the BCS, and I think the four team playoff is a step in the right direction, I still get sick of the “every week is a playoff” mantra you hear so often. If that was the case, all five of these Top-8 teams that lost this weekend would be out of contention with so much football left to play. Thankfully they’re not; as I don’t think a week 6 loss should eliminate anyone from contention in a playoff. Call it a double elimination pre-playoff to the playoff, as all five teams that lost this weekend have no more room for error. Especially with six more huge games slated for week 7.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (5-0) – Still #1, but still vulnerable.
#2. Auburn (5-0) – It’s like the end of 2013 all over again!
#3. Baylor (5-0) – Your schedule makes it more likely that you’ll remain unbeaten. That’s important for the committee. Why, I don’t know. But it is.
#4. Mississippi State (5-0) – Two huge wins in a row and now all of the sudden you’re in contention. You’re also a home underdog this weekend to Auburn.
#5. Ole Miss (5-0) – Huge, emotional win v. Alabama; immediately followed by a trip to a pissed off A&M team. Yeah, have fun with that.
#6. Alabama (4-1) – Remember that two of three Alabama’s recent National Championships included a loss to a quality team from the SEC West. If ‘Bama doesn’t turn it over twice in the second half and makes some field goals, they win that game easily and are #2. Things aren’t over for the Tide.
#7. Notre Dame (5-0) – I still don’t think you’re a Top-10 team, but if everyone else keeps losing, and you keep winning, what am I supposed to do?
#8. Oregon (4-1) – As long as you have the same number of losses as Michigan State, I’ll have you ranked ahead of them. But, you need to take care of UCLA this weekend.
#9. Michigan State (4-1) – Congrats on winning the Big 10!
#10.TCU (4-0) – Welcome to the Top-10! Enjoy it while it lasts, because I have a feeling you won’t be here long!
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Coolest named QB we’ve seen in a while, best QB in the country right now on the hottest team in the country right now in best conference overall (and best division by far). But, the spotlight won’t be easy, especially with your upcoming schedule
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Mississippi State
#2 Auburn v. #3 Baylor
Championship: Mississippi State v. Auburn – Wouldn’t it be interesting if the first four team playoff in college football history gave a rematch of a regular season SEC game? With the teams that are left in the hunt, it’s entirely possible…
Week 7 Big Games:
Georgia @ Missouri – Missouri beat South Carolina and Georgia did not, so that gives an automatic nod to Missouri in this one, especially since they’re at home, right? In the words of Lee Corse – not so fast! Missouri is going to see a steady dose of Gurley all day long, and Georgia is overall the better team (as in, they didn’t lose to Indiana). Georgia regains control in the SEC-East: 38 to 27.
TCU @ Baylor – Oh how things change in the Big 12. The second weekend in October, and the featured game in Texas between Top-10 teams isn’t the Red River Shootout, but TCU/Baylor. Patterson’s boys better be ready to play early. We see it so many times. A team with an emotional win the weekend before struggles in their next game. Especially on the road. Especially with a quality opponent. All three of those are in play this weekend. Baylor scores early and often and blows TCU back to the middle of the Big 12: Baylor 52 TCU 38.
Oregon @ UCLA – This was supposed to be a Top-10 matchup and preview of the PAC-12 Championship, but with both teams stumbling against lesser foes this past weekend, we’re left with just two teams wanting to get back into things. UCLA hasn’t looked great all year (except against Arizona State) and Oregon’s offensive line looks like a series of human turn-styles. But, again, outside of the game against ASU (and who doesn’t look good against ASU’s defense?), UCLA hasn’t looked great against Virginia, Memphis, Texas, and Utah. Oregon heads into Pasadena and gets a win in the Rose Bowl: 43 to 30.
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M – Ole Miss’ stock is at an all-time high following their upset of Alabama, and A&M’s is at a yearly low after its loss at Mississippi State. But, I’ll say it again – huge emotional win followed by a tough game on the road, and that spells trouble for Ole Miss (especially with their safety being suspended for the first half for that cheap shot against Alabama that ended up breaking the leg of their running back). I’ll sell high and buy low, and take A&M: Texas A&M 45 Ole Miss 27.
USC @ UofSuck – UofSuck is the last undefeated team in the PAC-12, and they’re back at home against a two-loss USC team. And they’re a three point underdog. When Vegas knows, they know. Remember, this UofSuck team barely beat UTSA and Nevada, and needed a Hail Mary and 36 point 4th quarter to beat lowly Cal. And they caught Oregon at the right time on a Thursday night (where favorites go to die) with a beat up offensive line. USC 27 UofSuck 20.
Week 7 Game of the Week:
Auburn @ Mississippi State – Dak and Co. are back at home, and it’s just another game against a Top-10 opponent, as Mississippi State tries to keep their magical run alive. The problem is, Auburn is the team coming to town – not only the #2 in the current polls, but the #2 team from last year as well. And, their defense is much better than last year but most importantly, they aren’t as one dimension on offense this year, and Nick Marshall has Auburn rolling. Look for a shootout in this one, as both teams know they’re best defense will be a good offense as the other is going to score as well. My gut says War Eagle, but my heart says Dak Prescott: Mississippi State 41 Auburn 38.
Until next time…
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