Ever since Notre Dame beat Florida State in 1993 (and then lost a let-down game the following weekend against Boston College by a FG) yet lost the National Championship vote to FSU, I’ve always ranted about the value of head-to-head results over anything else (given even records). Seems I have myself in a pickle now. By head-to-head results only, Auburn should be #3 and Notre Dame should be #4 (given their sole losses to the #1 and #2 teams in the country). But, they’re not. And sure, I think it’s still appropriate to have Oregon over Michigan State. But, now it gets hairy – UofSuck is sitting on one loss (and should’ve been a win with a near chip shot FG against USC that they made before the ‘SC timeout), but who in their right mind would rank them above Oregon? Not I, not anyone. Okay, let’s complicate things a bit more. Baylor beat TCU, but everyone (including me) has TCU higher than Baylor. Alabama lost to Ole Miss just a couple weeks ago, and with Ole Miss’ loss to LSU this weekend, the AP has them four spots behind Alabama. And then there’s Georgia, who’s frantically climbing up the polls, with their lone loss to a four-loss South Carolina team. Yep, I’m beginning to think head-to-head is meaningless; well not meaningless, but certainly less of a factor than 1) how teams lost (which is why both ASU and Ohio State are going to have hard time climbing much higher in the polls), 2) and when teams lost. Throw strength of schedule in there as well (which starts to favor Auburn and Oregon for their non-con wins against Kansas State and Michigan State), and we have the first Top-25 rankings from the playoff committee. More on that later as we get into this weekend’s Top-10 recap; well, make it Top-5 (I’m packing up for a deer hunt as we speak so I need to keep this short):
1) My take home from the LSU/Ole Miss game is threefold: the kicking game plays such a huge roll in college football (Ole Miss couldn’t decide if they wanted to try a FG to tie the game, go for more yards, go for the endzone, take a delay of game, call a timeout, or just let Bo be Bad Bo); never count out LSU at home, especially when they’re down in the 4th quarter (looking at you Alabama); and while the SEC-West is still leading the polls, but they’re going to continue to knock each other off at an alarming rate (not to mention that the SEC-East can help a bit with Georgia-Auburn in a few weeks).
2) Oregon’s offense is back firing on all cylinders, but their defense needs to pick it up some. The Ducks have below-standard Stanford team this weekend, and if they can finally get that Cardinal off their back, they have a very good chance at taking care of Utah in a couple weeks and then just letting the PAC-12 South beat each other up to decide who gets to get beat up by Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship.
3) Mississippi State won in their first game as a #1 ranked team, but they were taken to the wire by a pretty good Kentucky team. It’s another reminder that while many accuse there of being an SEC bias, the reality is the SEC is once again, top to bottom, better than any conference in the country. (Well, if you take out Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida)
4) Wouldn’t it be something if Kansas State wins @ TCU, @ West Virginia, and @ Baylor; with their lone loss being what should’ve been a win against Auburn (a team with as good a shot as any to win the SEC)? If that happens, Kansas State is in. And if the queen had balls, she’d be king.
5) While I find the intrigue behind this week’s first reveal of the committee’s Top-4, I also know that in the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t really matter. There’s too much football to play, and too many upsets yet to happen. But, my initial thoughts: I was surprised (yet agree) with Notre Dame at #10 (they haven’t beaten anyone). I was really surprised at Ole Miss at #3, given how poor their offense looks at time and that fact that they play Auburn this weekend, meaning at least one of the initial Top-4 is going down this weekend (queue the conspiracies about that’s how they want it to happen). Other than that, no major surprises for me. But again, it’s all going to sort itself out in the next month and with the way things are lining up, I think the Top-4 is going to be a lot clearer on December 7th than it is on October 28th. I still think the SEC gets two teams in though, with Oregon and Florida State rounding out the mix.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (7-0) – The last time you played Louisville, it was on the road, on Thursday night, you were #4, they were unranked, and you lost. Just sayin’.
#2. Mississippi State (7-0) – A win is a win is a win. Next up, Arkansas and UT Martin before you go to Tuscaloosa on November 15th. Get healthy, Dak.
#3. Auburn (6-1) – @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, @ Alabama remaining. Huge strength of schedule points if you can run the table.
#4. Alabama (7-1) – Bye week before you head to Death Valley.
#5. Oregon (7-1) – Your ole foe, the Cardinal, come to town this weekend; and they’re vulnerable for a change.
#6. Ole Miss (7-1) – You lose @ Death Valley (where no one wins at night) and everyone has forgotten about you? Maybe because you have no time to recover as Auburn comes to town this weekend.
#7. Michigan State (7-1) – Bye week for you too; then Ohio State comes to town for your last big matchup before the Big 10 Championship.
#8. Notre Dame (6-1) – Just please, God; beat Navy.
#9. Georgia (6-1) – Still can’t believe that the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party hasn’t been played by undefeated teams.
#10. TCU (6-1) – Careful @ Morgantown; remember WestByGod’s only two losses are to Alabama (by 10) and Oklahoma (by 12). WVU should probably be a bit higher in the rankings.
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – But how bad is his foot injury?
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Alabama
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Until FSU loses to Louisville this weekend.
Week 10 Big Games:
Florida State @ Louisville – What do Louisville, Alabama, and Ole Miss have in common? They’re the only teams in college football to have not given up more than 23 points in a game this year. The Cardinals’ are going to have to give up that or fewer if they’re going to have a chance, as their offense isn’t going to be able to play in a shootout with Florida State. But, Florida State is having more off the field problems (I mean, wonderful outstanding citizens in the classroom and off the field; as Jimbo puts it). And this is Thursday night, where ranked favorites on the road go to die. Why not; it’s the hipster pick, but I’ll pick it too; Louisville shakes things up: 31 to 27.
Stanford @ Oregon – Oregon’s National Title march was derailed each of the last two years by Stanford, but the difference in this one is this: each of the last three years, Stanford wound up in a BCS game. Not so this year. Stanford is still physical on both sides of the ball, but Oregon is getting healthy at the right time. Oregon finally gets by the Cardinal, and solidifies their claim to a top-4 spot in the polls: Oregon 37 Stanford 24.
TCU @ West Virginia – We know TCU isn’t going to put up 80 in Morgantown, and we know that WVU’s two losses were to two quality teams: Alabama and Oklahoma. What we don’t know is if TCU’s defense is going to show back up after giving up 33 to Oklahoma, 61 to Baylor, and 27 to Texas Tech. But, West Virginia only beat Texas Tech by three, and TCU beat them by 55. Let the Horned Frogs keep rolling: TCU 44 West Virginia 31.
UofSuck @ UCLA – UofSuck is one FG away from being undefeated; or at least that’s what the pundits will tell you. They must have forgotten that they needed a 36 point 4th quarter against Cal to win, and almost lost to Nevada and the Fighting Roadrunners at UTSA. UCLA has underachieved all season, and look for that to continue. Whatever you do, take the over. I like UofSuck 48 UCLA 45.
Utah @ Arizona State – After giving up 62 to UCLA and 34 to USC, ASU suddenly learned how to play defense – only giving up 10/each in wins against Stanford and Washington. Utah has gone Stanford on us; not only are they big and physical, but they can’t play a game that’s decided by more than seven points – they’re four PAC-12 games have been decided by a total of 12 points. You east coasters will have to read about this one since it doesn’t kick-off until 11:00pm Eastern time. Too bad. You’re missing out on an Arizona State team starting to peak at the right time: ASU 30 to 24.
Week 10 Game of the Week:
Auburn @ Ole Miss – Ole Miss needs to dust itself off quick. After the upset to LSU, Auburn brings a much better offense into this one; though Ole Miss still has the #1 scoring defense in the country. Here’s the scary thing – Auburn won the turnover battle against LSU 4-1, gave up 10 points, and lost. Why? LSU lined up and hammered it time and time again inside the tackles. You’ll see the same thing here, but instead of the play action pass being freed up by the inside running game, the outside options are going to allow Auburn to run wild. Ole Miss goes down two weeks in a row: Auburn 27 Ole Miss 20.
Until next time…
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