We’re down to six unbeaten teams (well, five, since Marshall really doesn’t count), and at least one more is going down this weekend as Notre Dame travels to Tallahassee and we know the Egg Bowl will claim another before it’s said and done. It’s starting to look like 2007 where we wound up with no undefeated teams and ended up with a two loss LSU team winning it all. Only six unbeatens after week 7? Last year at this stage there were 14, and the year before 12. Call if parity, call it scheduling, call it coaching, call it something; but it sure is fun to watch as we pass the midpoint of the season and head down the stretch. Here’s the Top 10 recap:
1) Thanks to Washington, the “ice the kicker” timeouts are back in style. I see those work maybe once every three or four years. Well in Tucson this weekend (after ya’ll went to bed), Washington iced the kicker twice, at the end of the first half and the end of the game. The result? Both kicks were good, timeouts were called split seconds before the kicks, and the both second kicks missed or were blocked. The last one cost UofSuck the game. The most interesting part of that game was that despite their undefeated record and Top-10 ranking, UofSuck was a home underdog to an unranked USC team. A two point underdog. Final score: 28-26, USC. Man, those guys in Vegas are good.
2) UCLA falls to Oregon at home, giving the Ducks the clear path once again to the PAC-12 Championship. But, it’s becoming abundantly clear that home field “advantage” is not an advantage in the PAC-12 this year. In conference play, home teams are only 4-14 at home. That’s great when you’re Oregon going to Pasadena, but it doesn’t look so great when Stanford’s coming Eugene in three weeks, not to mention Washington this week.
3) It took Gurley getting suspended to wake up Georgia’s defense, and the Bulldogs went into Missouri and blew out the Tigers (being home isn’t so nice in the SEC either, right Texas A&M). Georgia had the ball for almost ¾ of the game, and Missouri was o’fer on third down and turned it over five times and never stood a chance. That Georgia loss @ South Carolina seems so long ago, and Georgia’s not only right back into things in the SEC East but right back into the Top-10.
4) The Fighting Irish gave up 43 points to an average (at best) North Carolina team, but still won. That’s the most points they’ve ever given up in a game and still won. You know what else is giving it up? Everett Golson. Nine turnovers in the last three games for the Irish QB, and they’re 3-0. That’s fine against the likes of Syracuse and North Carolina (and even “we always play good teams to a margin of victory of seven or less” Stanford), but that isn’t going to work this weekend at Notre Dame heads to Florida State for their first true road game of the year. A FSU team that is falling in the major polls faster than Obama’s approval rating, despite continuing to win.
5) Even when Baylor found themselves down to a really good TCU team by 21 points with just over 11 minutes to play, you still had that feeling that if anyone was going to pull off the victory, it would be Bryce Petty and company. No lead is safe against Baylor’s offense, but they have to get that defense figured out. Especially heading to dangerous Morgantown this weekend (upset alert?)
6) Alabama hasn’t looked great all season, and as the critics get a bit louder, Saban is getting a bit more irritated. They did hang on against a good Arkansas team though, even if it was the refs that helped them out a bit at the end. Still, at this point in the year, a win is a win. And, scheduling is lining up in their favor, with home games against A&M, LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn. If home field means anything anymore. Keep in mind, since joining the SEC, A&M is winless at home against ranked teams, but has won more than half of those games on the road.
7) Despite Texas sucking this year, and Oklahoma being pretty good, we finally had a close Red River shootout. Oklahoma’s been a beneficiary of good scheduling too, as the Sooners are now 32-0 following a regular season loss since 2000. Oklahoma needs to take care of K State this weekend, and then not fall on the road to Iowa State (TRAP GAME) before Baylor comes to town for the defacto Big 12 Championship on November 8th.
8) Don’t tell Oklahoma State I said that. Since barely losing to FSU in week one, the Cowboys have rattled off five straight and are back in the Top-15. They gotta head to TCU this weekend though, and I don’t think the Horned Frogs are going to give up 21 point 4th quarter leads again. And, the Cowboys close with games against Baylor and Oklahoma, so they could still make some noise in the Big 12, or at least play spoiler.
9) In the only big game result I missed last weekend (5-1 ain’t bad, 18-9 overall), Mississippi went into College Station and dominated the #3 scoring offense in the nation. In some ways, this was more impressive than last week’s huge win against Alabama. Yet, despite starting 6-0 for the first time in more than 50 years, Ole Miss is still playing red-headed step child to their neighbors from Starkville.
10) I’ve been saying all year that we’ve got a bunch of good to great teams this year, but not one or two dominate teams. I’ve been wrong. Mississippi State has rattled off three straight victories against Top-10 foes, and find themselves coasting into a bye week as the #1 team in the major polls (but not my poll; sorry, FSU’s path to undefeatedhood is still much easier that Miss St’s). Dak Prescott is the Heisman winner unless something completely crazy happens, and their schedule lightens up a bit with the bye and four of their next five against Kentucky, Arkansas, UT Martin, and Vanderbilt. Assuming they get by Kentucky, November 15th @ Alabama will be a huge game, but don’t forget that’s the week after ‘Bama goes to LSU. Things are good for the state of Mississippi!
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (6-0) – Despite how bad you’ve looked at times, I just can’t move you down when you keep winning.
#2. Mississippi State (6-0) – For the purposes of the playoff, #2 is just as good as #1, so don’t worry, Dak.
#3. Baylor (6-0) – You thought Notre Dame giving up 43 and winning was impressive? The Bears gave up 25 more than that and still won!
#4. Ole Miss (6-0) – A loss is looming, I know it.
#5. Auburn (5-1) – Best one loss team in the country right now.
#6. Alabama (5-1) – Need to get some things cleaned up to stay in the picture.
#7. Notre Dame (6-0) – I still don’t think you’re a Top-10 team (maybe if I keep saying this, it’ll work!). Flashback to ’93 coming up this weekend!
#8. Oregon (5-1) – It sure helps when your o-line actually blocks every once in a while.
#9. Michigan State (5-1) – Still can’t have you above Oregon when you lost to them.
#10. (Georgia (5-1) – Remember us?
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – But, Bryce Perry can close the gap a bit with another big performance against Oklahoma State.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Auburn
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Baylor
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Who would’ve thought seven weeks ago that the best shot for the SEC to regain the Championship was via one of the Mississippi schools?
Week 8 Big Games:
Kansas State @ Oklahoma – Kansas State’s only blemish is against Auburn, a game they really should’ve won. Oklahoma went down to TCU a couple weeks ago, but overall has been less then stellar in Big 12 play, struggling against the likes of Texas and West Virginia. I think Oklahoma is still benefitting from their win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl – i.e. they’re overrated. I like Kansas State and their stellar defense to pull the upset in Norman: 27 to 20.
Texas A&M @ Alabama – The last two versions of this game have been downright classics – Johnny Football storming off to a three TD lead in Tuscaloosa two years ago and then holding on to win, and last year’s slug fest revenge win for ‘Bama. Not as much hype leading up to this one, as Texas A&M still hasn’t figured out how to play defense, and Alabama is being forgotten about as all of the hype is on the Mississippi schools. Look for Kiffin and Saban and pull off the gloves in this one, and Alabama wins with some style points: 45 to 27.
Oklahoma State @ TCU – TCU is an epic collapse away from being in the Top-5, and most people forget that Oklahoma State took FSU down to the wire in week 1. Safe to say, if TCU scores 58 this weekend, they’re not losing; and they might score that many as they’re the #3 scoring team in the country, along with that usually (except for last weekend) stingy defense. Look for TCU to fix some things in the secondary, put up a bunch more points, and keep their Big 12 title hopes alive. TCU 45 Oklahoma State 33.
Stanford @ Arizona State – Stanford brings the #1 scoring defense into Tempe this weekend, to take on the Sun Devils, whom they’ve owned recently (beating ASU handily both times they played last year). Stanford hasn’t given up more than 17 points in any game all year, yet they find themselves with two losses already. ASU can score, but their defense is downright horrible, and Stanford should have no problems running up and down the field. The only reason I give ASU the slightest chance in this one is because of Stanford’s tendency to play ranked teams extremely close. But in the end, I like Stanford in a blowout – 41 to 24.
Week 8 Game of the Week:
Notre Dame @ Florida State – Notre Dame is a true road team for the first time all year, and they’re a ~12 point underdog to the Seminoles. But, that’s down from a 24-point dog at the beginning of the year, so Vegas is liking the Irish a bit more (and/or doubting FSU a bit more). Both teams are dealing with off-the-field drama, and while Notre Dame has exceeded expectations this year, FSU has not, despite still being undefeated. As mentioned above, the key to this game will be Everett Golson. FSU will score a bunch, but if Golson turns it over repeatedly and keeps giving FSU a short field to work with, it will get ugly early. The other big key is how Notre Dame handles their first true road game of the year and the raucous crowd in Tallahassee. That can lead to mental mistakes, penalties, wasted timeouts, and turnovers. This isn’t your ’93 Irish, but this version of FSU is fairly similar to ’93 – very athletic and mobile QB, and incredible athletes all over the field. This one’s shaping up to be a repeat of the Notre Dame/Alabama game – Notre Dame has just enough tangibles (Golson, Robinson, and their defense) to make you think they can actually keep themselves in the game, but at the end it’ll be clear that what I’ve been saying all year is true: Notre Dame is not a Top-10 team. Florida State 31 Note Dame 24
Until next time…
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