Two more unbeatens go down, and now the SEC has four teams in the Top-5; the first time that’s ever happened (one conference having four in the top five), and they’re all in the same division! My bet that the SEC will have two in the Final Four is looking better and better, and there are some scenarios where they could have three teams. Heck, I’ve even seen a fourth scenario where they wind up all four slots, but that is predicated by FSU losing twice, which isn’t going to happen. They are vulnerable though, as they were largely outplayed and outcoached in Tallahassee by a Notre Dame squad with half the talent. Here’s the Top 10 recap:
1) Let’s just get it over with right away: yes, it was a pick play. Notre Dame dared the ref’s to call it, and they did (even the head referee mouthed “are you sure?” when told of the foul). The two most unfortunate things about the play (other than the FSU player that tore his helmet off after the play and could’ve been flagged for that): 1) the Irish TD in the first half was an actual real pick and wasn’t called (and it should’ve been called) and 2) the final pick play wasn’t even necessary as Robinson was so wide open from blown coverage that the other two Irish receivers could’ve just stood on the line and not moved. As Kelly said: “they were rewarded for blown coverage.”
2) One last comment about FSU before we move on to the SEC and other conferences. I almost puked during Jimbo’s post game comments when he said that Florida State “is a high-character program that’s ran the right way, on class, on dignity, in the classroom, off the field, and this team shows it.” That reminded me of the All Valley Tournament scene in Karate Kid III when Terry Silver hypocritically talked about importance of giving back to the community through the self-confidence and inner peace instilled by Karate, and the virtues of honesty, compassion, and fair play. Sorry Jimbo, we ain’t buying it. I miss the days of Jimmy Johnson’s Miami teams where they didn’t pretend they weren’t criminals – they embraced it.
3) Of all the Top-15 teams, the one that I still don’t have a good read on is Kansas State. They’re just outside the Top-10 and are the only team remaining in the Big 12 that is undefeated in conference play. They got lucky to beat Oklahoma this weekend (ever seen one of the best kickers in the game hook a 19 yard FG wide left by 30 feet?), but also were in a great position to beat Auburn. Then again, they struggled @ Iowa State but looked great against Texas Tech. Even though they’re sitting in first in the Big 12 right now, they still have @ TCU, @ West Virginia, and @ Baylor. I don’t think they’re going to be sitting in first for long.
4) Everyone seems to have forgotten about the Big 10 after Ohio State’s loss to Virginia Tech and Michigan State’s loss to Oregon. But, those teams haven’t loss since, and they bring in the 3rd and 4th scoring offenses in the country. Sure, part of that is their competition, but don’t think that a one loss Big 10 Champion doesn’t have legitimate claim to be in the Top-4. Especially if it winds up being Michigan State which would have a win over Ohio State and two wins over Nebraska, with their sole loss to Oregon (who’s chances to win the PAC-12 and get in the playoff are getting better and better by the weekend). I can see it now – the Final Four winds up being two teams from the SEC-West and Michigan State and Oregon (assuming Florida State losses again somewhere along the way – oh wait, that’s right, they didn’t lose to Notre Dame. Grrr……right up there with the phantom clip against Colorado in the ’91 Orange Bowl or the Reggie Bush “I’ll just illegally push Matt Leinart into the endzone” in 2005). Oh wait, where was I? That’s right – imagine if the Final Four winds up being two rematches! So much for the “every week is a playoff” crowd…
5) Two reason’s you can tell it’s almost November: Alabama is back in the Top-5 in scoring defense, and Georgia is probably the best one loss team in the country. From the opening minutes, Alabama took it straight to Texas A&M and finally exposed the Aggie offense as a unit that lost their QB, best WR, and left tackle to the NFL. And, even without Gurley for the last two weeks, Georgia’s running game hasn’t missed a beat, and they’re not running away with the SEC-East. That cross-divisional game with Auburn in a few weeks seems to be the Bulldogs last major chance for a stumble before the SEC Championship Game. Speaking of Auburn – they have @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, and @ Alabama remaining. That quite possibly could be three more losses. Safe to the say, even though they have four in the Top-5 right now, the SEC-West isn’t done beating each other up.
6) West Virginia lost the turnover battle 0-3, but still beat Baylor. How? Well, Baylor’s 18 penalties sure didn’t help. But, with the score tied at 27 going into the 4th quarter, West Virginia’s defense really tightened down and kept Bryce Perry and crew in check. That’s something you haven’t heard much about in the Baylor-West Virginia matchups the last couple of years: defense. Great win in Morgantown for the Mountaineers, and if they keep winning, that’s going to help out Alabama with strength-of-schedule points.
7) Whenever people start to doubt Oregon, it seems Washington shows up on their schedule. After struggling against Washington State and losing to UofSuck, the Ducks took care of Oregon, and then blasted Washington like they always do – that’s not 11 straight years of 17+ point wins in the cross state matchup. With Stanford losing yet again, all of the sudden, November 8th @ Utah seems to be the Ducks last major hurdle before the PAC-12 Championship and a likely spot in the Top-4.
8) So who is Oregon going to face from the PAC-12 South? There’s a log jam happening right now, as four teams are sitting at one less, with USC holding the tie breaker over UofSuck, ASU holding the tie breaker over USC, and Utah having to play all three (plus Oregon and Stanford). It’s looking like the Territorial Cup may decide the PAC-12 South, assuming both ASU and UofSuck can hold serve until the last weekend in November. Regardless, for a team that gave up 62 to UCLA and was left for dead, I’ve been impressed with how ASU has responded by not quitting against USC in the Coliseum and by dominating a Stanford team on both sides of the ball. It should be noted that the PAC-12 South has four out of their five teams ranked in the Top 25. Take that, SEC West!
9) The old saying in college football is that it’s better to lose early than late. In the case of TCU, not only is it better to lose early than late, but also to not play anyone late. By the time LSU and Alabama tee it off late on November 8th, TCU will be done with their last real challenge against Kansas State. After that, they have Kansas, Texas, and Iowa State to close the season with no Conference Championship. If they find themselves in the top six or seven going into that game, they may just sneak into the Top-4 via attrition as here’s the other big games happening on November 8th or later: Ohio State @ Michigan State, Notre Dame @ Arizona State, Baylor @ Oklahoma, Mississippi State @ Alabama, Auburn @ Georgia, K State @ West Virginia, UCLA @ USC, Mississippi State @ Ole Miss, Auburn @ Alabama, Notre Dame @ USC, Kansas State @ Baylor, Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma, and the Big 10, PAC-12, SEC, and ACC Conference Championships. TCU’s got a great chance to not only win the Big 12 but to coast into the Top-4.
10) Regardless of what happens in the next seven or eight weeks, the committee is going to have their hands full – especially if they continue to state putting a high value on the result of head-to-head matchups. Michigan State is out because of the loss the Oregon. Same for Notre Dame at the hands of FSU. Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl losers? Out. No one wants to see those matchups again. So then you have to start looking at good losses versus bad losses. All those mentioned above are “good losses.” Oregon going to down to UofSuck, Georgia to South Carolina? Not so much. Yet, interestingly enough, Georgia and Oregon are playing some of the best football right now. The most interesting scenario is what happens if a one loss Georgia beats an undefeated Mississippi (or State) team in the SEC Championship. Georgia’s in for sure. But now you have a likely one loss team (or maybe two – winner of Iron Bowl may end with one loss) that didn’t make the conference championship and a one loss team that just lost the conference championship but beat their in-state rival the week before. Ah, my head hurts. Hopefully it’ll all be straightened out on the field in the next eight weeks, and given the history, it will. Even if there’s only one second left…
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (7-0) – After Louisville next week, their last “tough” game will be the ACC Championship against Duke or Pitt. But, I’m giving Louisville a chance – at home, on Thursday night…
#2. Mississippi State (6-0) – I don’t have you at #1 because you still have @ Alabama and @ Ole Miss (let alone the SEC Championship against Georgia – if you make it that far).
#3. Ole Miss (7-0) – @ LSU this weekend before Auburn comes to town next weekend. It’s a TRAP! Death Valley @ night. Good luck.
#4. Auburn (6-1) – @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, @ Alabama remaining, and don’t sleep against South Carolina this weekend.
#5. Alabama (6-1) – If you win @ Death Valley in three weeks, you lose v. Mississippi State the following weekend. If you lose @ LSU, you probably beat MSU. Regardless, another loss is coming, as Auburn’s still out there, too. Just not against Tennessee or Western Carolina.
#6. Oregon (6-1) – You might actually be able to beat Stanford this year is you can score 14+ points, as Stanford can’t seem to score more than 10-14 points against good teams.
#7. Michigan State (6-1) – Needs to run the table and needs SEC and PAC-12 losses to pile up.
#8. Notre Dame (6-1) – Ok, fine; you’re a top-10 team. Now just don’t blow it against Navy in a couple weeks.
#9. Georgia (6-1) – Just might be the best team in the whole SEC right now, and that’s saying a lot.
#10. TCU (6-1) – Up 21 @ Baylor with 11 minutes to go and you couldn’t seal the deal. The committee is going to remember that.
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Vegas is giving the best odds to Mariota right now; I’m guessing they’re just trying to recoup some money based on the payouts they’re going to have to make when Dak wins.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Auburn
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – I wonder if the refs will throw a flag in the closing seconds of this one?
Week 9 Big Games:
USC @ Utah – Utah is off to a 5-1 start, but their three PAC-12 games have been decided by a total of nine points. They did blow out Michigan in the Big House, but that’s not saying much this year. USC’s two losses came inexplicably to Boston College and that bizarre Hail Mary against ASU. Not sure what to expect in this one, except that Utah is similar in mold to Stanford (which almost beat USC) and Boston College – a physical line, power running game, and strong defense. Let’s take the Utes in a slugfest: 27 to 24.
Alabama @ Tennessee – Alabama 38 Tennessee 10 (if I don’t include this game every year I get yelled at from too many people in the South).
Week 9 Game of the Week:
Ole Miss @ LSU – Many folks are saying the LSU is going to pull the upset here; that Bo Wallace is due to make some more mistakes, and that LSU can’t possibly lose another one in Death Valley at night. They’re also point to their last two games to show that the Tigers’ have turned things around after their first two SEC games. Well, of course they looked better against Florida and Kentucky than against Mississippi State and Auburn! The Rebels and their #1 scoring defense keep rolling – Mississippi 38 LSU 27.
Until next time…
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