I can see it now; with TCU moving into #4 in the playoff poll, they really shouldn’t move down at all if they win out. Same with Oregon and FSU (though I find it funny that FSU is down to #3 now even though they keep winning). So, with Alabama playing Mississippi State this weekend, and Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl left to play, coupled with Baylor’s head-to-head win over TCU, there’s a scenario lining up where the Big 12 could get both TCU and Baylor in the playoff. Can you imagine that? A playoff with no SEC or Big 10? Of course, about six or seven things need to happen for that to come to fruition (especially with Baylor’s 130th out of 130 non-con schedule), so let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves; there’s still a month left until the final rankings come out. In the meantime, let’s check out the Top-8 from this weekend (because we really should have an eight team playoff).
1. Florida State won its 25th game in a row, but once again they found themselves down early to subpar competition. At some point, that’s going to catch up to them, right? Well, looking at their remaining schedule, it looks like the only time it may happen is in the playoff; unless Duke can pull the upset in the ACC Championship. Lots of people talk about SEC fatigue, but I think we’re starting to see FSU fatigue (especially with the continued off the field drama). The committee seems to be agreeing, dropping an undefeated defending champion with a Heisman Trophy winning QB in the midst of a 25 game winning streak to #3 in their polls. Good for them.
2. With a dominating performance against Michigan State, Ohio State has re-entered the playoff race. The loss to Virginia Tech seems so long ago, and looking ahead, it’s good news for the Buckeyes that Minnesota is the biggest test remaining on their schedule before the Big 10 Championship Game. But, even if they win out, they need some help. They need a Baylor and/or TCU loss, and some continued chaos in the SEC to have a chance. At this stage, it’s still safe to say that the conference left out of the playoff is going to be the Big 10.
3. Baylor blows out OU in Norman, has the win over TCU, and had the inside track to the Big 12 Championship, but it still may not be enough to overtake TCU in the polls. Which is interesting, since it would in essence mean the committee doesn’t value head-to-head AND conference championships as much as, uh, other stuff. Oh yeah, body of work; yeah, that’s the term. As if TCU’s non-conference schedule of Samford, SMU, and Minnesota is far superior to that of Baylor’s non-con of SMU, Northwestern St, and Buffalo. Still, there’s a couple scenario’s out there where both TCU and Baylor wind up in the Top-4 in the AP, and then the committee is going to find itself in a pickle, especially if the SEC Champion has two losses.
4. Alabama and LSU played another classic slugfest, and I was a little bit surprised to see Saban play for the FG to send the game into O.T. rather than taking a quick shot or two at the endzone. Maybe he’s a little gun shy after what happened @ Auburn last year, or what happened with Ole Miss @ LSU this year when they went for the win instead of kicking a FG and playing for O.T. Or maybe, despite being held in check most of the game by LSU, Kiffin told Saban that on a short field in O.T., Alabama could score. Sure enough, they pull out some trickery (fake tackle-eligible screen and go route to the TE) and get the winning score. Despite showing some seriously vulnerabilities this year, Alabama is still in a position to get to #4 – and they’re favorites against Mississippi State and will be against Auburn, too.
5. In their last 19 games, Duke is 16-3. In their last 19 basketball games, Duke is 14-5. Think about that for awhile
6. In probably their most complete performance of the year, TCU made Kansas State’s defense look average. The Horned Frogs rushed for three times the average given up all year by KSU, and had almost as many rushing TDs as Kansas State had given up all year. TCU rises to #4 in the polls, and Kansas State falls to 0-10 all time in Top-10 matchups.
7. My favorite quote of the week was from the Auburn-A&M game when TV replay showed that Auburn has recovered one of their fumbles, even though A&M came out of the stack with the ball. “A lot of stuff happens at the bottom of a pile. I'm not going to say exactly who had possession of it, but when it is all said and done I ended up with the ball and we had possession, so yes I did get the fumble.” Despite outplaying A&M in nearly every aspect of the game, the three turnovers (especially the two late fumbles) just killed Auburn.
8. Speaking of fumbles, Everett Golson fumbled three more times while I was writing this blog.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (9-0) – Can you just lose one of these games, dammit?
#2. Mississippi State (9-0) – Still have Alabama, Ole Miss, and possibly an SEC Championship. Obviously win out and you’re in. One loss may still get you there.
#3. Oregon (9-1) – No one’s talking about the Civil War; that usually spells trouble in cross-state games.
#4. Alabama (8-1) – Still not sure what to think about you; but we’ll know much more at this time next week.
#5. Baylor (8-1) – If it comes down to Baylor or TCU for #4, I have to give the nod to head-to-head results and conference champions. If Baylor wins out, they’ll have both.
#6. TCU (8-1) – Needs some help from Okie State, Texas Tech, or Kansas State; but first needs to take care of Kansas, Texas, and Iowa State.
#7. Arizona State (8-1) – Just please beat UofSuck. Please.
#8. Ohio State (8-1) – Oh hi there! Where have you been all year? Welcome to the party.
#9. Auburn (7-2) – Fumbled away your chances, literally. But still not out of it.
#10. Ole Miss (8-2) – Beat Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl, and pray for help. Two losses by a total of seven points.
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – Everyone’s voting for Mariota now; but I’m still pulling for Dak.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Alabama
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Though, Oregon is coming on strong; and losses may be looming for both FSU and Mississippi State.
Week 12 Big Games:
Auburn @ Georgia – Gurley is back for Georgia, and Auburn is reeling after fumbling away their hopes against A&M last weekend. Georgia still has hopes of playing in the SEC Championship game, while Auburn is left to be spoiler. Coupled with the game being in Athens give the Bulldogs the edge on the Tigers. A steady dose of Gurley and Chubb will keep Auburn’s offense off the field, and put up enough points for Georgia to stay in contention. Georgia 41 Auburn 34.
Nebraska @ Wisconsin – In the default play-in game for the Big 10 West Division championship (though Minnesota will disagree), Nebraska and Wisconsin both teams bring in massive offense lines and a power running game. But, this one is away from Memorial Stadium, and Nebraska hasn’t done well at all away from home against ranked teams, especially Wisconsin – losing 48-17 and 70-31 the last two times the Huskers have played Wisconsin away from home. I don’t think Wisconsin will run away with this one, but I also don’t think Nebraska pulls the upset, especially with Adbullah still not at 100%. Let’s take Wisconsin 34 to 27.
Week 12 Game of the Week:
Mississippi State @ Alabama – Both Alabama and Mississippi State played Arkansas and LSU very close. But, Alabama blew out A&M 59-0 while Mississippi State was in a dog fight with the Aggies the whole way. That’s why Alabama is a nearly double digit favorite against the #1 team in the country. But, let’s not forget what happened last week – Alabama was in a slug fest with their ol’ rival LSU, and needed O.T. to escape with an emotional victory at Death Valley. That spells trouble for Alabama, especially in the first half. Alabama will come out flat; all teams do after huge emotional games like that; and Mississippi State has to take advantage of that, and then hold off the Crimson Tide when they wake up and get their act together. I’d like Mississippi State to keep their magical season alive, but I’d also like to see some chaos continue in the SEC. Let’s take Alabama in a squeaker: 34 to 31.
Until next time…
No comments:
Post a Comment