“Game control.” That’s the new phrase the playoff committee is using as they try to figure out who in the heck to pick for #4 (#1-3 are pretty clear if they all win out – but that’s still a big if). Head-to-head doesn’t matter (right Baylor?), conference championships don’t matter (right TCU and Mississippi State?), who you lost to doesn’t matter (right Baylor, Ohio State, and Oregon?), who you beat doesn’t matter (right Alabama?), and that you haven’t lost at all doesn’t matter (right Florida State?); so we’re left with this “game control” phrase to pick the Top 4. Clearly, Alabama leads in that factor, as they’ve really controlled every game (with the exception of about three plays in their lone loss at Mississippi). My Top-4 is a little more scientific: Who do I think are the best overall teams in football, number one through four. Okay, maybe that sound as subjective as the Heisman criteria, but until someone, anyone, beats Florida State – they’re still #1. Oregon and Alabama are a toss-up for #2 and #3, and while #4 may be pretty cloudy right now, should #4-7 all win out, I still say Mississippi State has the most impressive resume for that final spot (and I’ve money on the SEC getting two teams in the playoff; so just call me Jameis Winston with my pick for #4). In the meantime, let’s check out the Top-4 from this weekend (for the four teams fighting for the #4 spot).
1. The difference between Auburn’s miracle run last year and Florida State’s run this year, is Auburn was actually coming from behind to beat good teams. Florida State fell behind an average-at-best team yet again, and rallied yet again. I believe that’s now seven comeback wins this year for the defending champs. Regardless of who they’re playing, that’s impressive that they’ve been able to battle back all of those times without slipping up. Even though I still have them as #1, they probably don’t deserve to be there, but assuming they win out, they do deserve a Top-4 ranking as they’re the only Power 5 team undefeated.
2. There’s still a bunch of “what if’s” out there regarding the Top-4, thanks to one half of the divisions in many of the conferences looking to play spoiler. What if Missouri beats Alabama in SEC Championship? What if Georgia Tech upsets FSU in the ACC? What if someone actually steps forward and wins the PAC-12 South? What a mess we have out west, with five teams still in contention in the PAC-12 South to see who gets steamrolled by Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship. ASU was sailing along until they went to Corvallis this weekend and got smoked by the Beavers. I wouldn’t mind seeing a UofSuck/Oregon rematch in the PAC-12 Championship, if for nothing else to see the Ducks beat the snot out of them like they should’ve the first time. UofSuck is still around because of some bizarre finishes. The latest being the “ice the kicker” actually backfiring this time, as their kicker missed the FG that was attempted after the timeout was called, only to make the game winner after the time out. The PAC-12 South is the wild, wild, west.
3. I’m not as impressed by Gordon’s 408 rushing performance against the Black Skirts as I am with Western Illinois holding him to 38 yards on 17 carriers back in September (the only time he’s been held under 120 yards rushing all year). Maybe Pelini can get Leatherneck’s Defensive Coordinator Brian Ward to come on over to Lincoln. They need something there. This is Nebraska’s 7th loss by 17 or more points, as a ranked team, in the last four years. That’s not good. I don’t know what the answer is though. It’s hard to fire a guy that’s won 9+ games every year; unless they have someone lined up to replace him. And if they did, he probably would’ve been fired last year. Chin up Husker fans; it’s still not as bad as it was under Callahan. We’ll see what happens this weekend against Minnesota, though. If the team has quit on him, it may be time for a change.
4. Georgia just can’t get a break. They beat Missouri 34-0 but are probably going to watch the Tigers represent the SEC-East in the SEC Championship game. Again. Gurley’s finally back after his suspension for autograph issues (why he’s suspended and everyone else under investigation for this gets to keep playing, I’ll never know), and they destroy SEC-West’s Auburn only to lose Gurley to a torn ACL. That $10 million dollar insurance policy they got for Gurley for ~$50,000 will turn out to be a nice investment though…
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (10-0) – Will you fall behind for the fifth straight game? Probably. Will you still win? Yes.
#2. Oregon (9-1) – Colorado’s first PAC-12 win of the year is not coming this weekend in Eugene.
#3. Alabama (9-1) – Watch out for the Catamounts of Western Carolina! Okay, not really.
#4. Mississippi State (9-1) – What is it with top teams playing teams winless in their conference this week? Safe to say, Vandy isn’t pulling the upset.
#5. Baylor (9-1) – 1st in the nation in scoring, 1st in the Big 12, but it may not be enough.
#6. TCU (9-1) – Did you really almost lose to Kansas?
#7. Ohio State (9-1) – You’d beat Virginia Tech by three TDs if you played them now. The problem is you already lost to them by two TDs. At home. In VT’s highest scoring game of the year. Sorry, but that’s not #4 material.
#8. Ole Miss (8-2) – Win the Egg Bowl, and things get messy.
#9. Georgia (8-2) – The eventual SEC-East Champ lost to you 34-0. How does that feel?
#10. Kansas State (8-2) – I have you here because I can’t have a UCLA team that needed double O.T. to beat Colorado anywhere near the Top-10.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota – Back in the lead, though that rumbling you’re hearing is Melvin Gordon coming on strong.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Mississippi State
#2 Oregon v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State v. Alabama – Interestingly enough, I’ve now come full circle. This was my preseason prediction.
Week 13 Big Games:
Arizona @ Utah – The log jam in the PAC-12 will clear up a bit after this weekend, and starting with this game. UofSuck has lost games by having the kicker iced, won games by having the kicker iced, nearly lost to UT San Antonio, needed a Hail Mary to beat Cal, and yet somehow beat Oregon. For Utah, six of their seven PAC-12 games have been decided by six or less, and three of those went to O.T. Utah can throw a big wrench into the PAC-12 South with a win, and UofSuck hasn’t played well against physical teams, which Utah is. We know the game will be close, and we know we should like Utah at home. But these pesky UofSuckers just keep getting things done, so I’ll take them in the upset: Arizona 31 Utah 27
Minnesota @ Nebraska – Though I don’t think firing him is the right move, Pelini’s job is likely on the line in this one. It’s Minnesota that comes in with the inside track to the Big 10 title game (though they need a little help), and Nebraska is just playing for pride. The main angle on this one is that Nebraska is a much better team at home and Minnesota has struggled on the road (losing to TCU and Illinois). But, I don’t think Nebraska is going to blow them out. Keep in mind that Minnesota’s David Cobb has actually outrushed Nebraska’s Abdullah this year, and the Gophers have shown the ability to keep things close (their only loss of more than seven points was @ TCU). Let’s look for Nebraska to win, but closer than the odds makers think: Nebraska 27 Minnesota 24.
Week 13 Game of the Week:
USC @ UCLA – After owning the battle for L.A. for a decade prior to 2012, USC has lost two straight to their cross town rival. UCLA is back in the college football playoff Top-10, but their only chance now is to win out and play spoiler to Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship. UCLA seems to have hit their stride lately, winning four straight since their loss to Oregon (but let’s just ignore that double O.T. win over 2-8 Colorado). UCLA is more athletic and more talented, and Mora Jr. has USC’s number right now. UCLA 30 USC 20.
Until next time…
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