“ARTICLE 4. Persons subject to the rules shall not intentionally contact a game official forcibly during the game. PENALTY—Administer as a dead-ball foul. 15 yards from the succeeding spot. Automatic first down for fouls by Team B if not in conflict with other rules. Automatic disqualification.” That’s the text of the rule. Winston broke it twice, and wasn’t tossed out; let alone given a 15-yard penalty. Sure, it happened in the 3rd quarter, and probably didn’t impact the game directly at the time, but once again, Famous Jameis’ behavior is reinforced that rules don’t apply to him. I can’t wait to see what he gets away with next. Maybe he should try murder. He can talk to Ray Lewis about the best ways to not only get away with murder, but improve your image over time, post-murder. In other news, FSU keeps winning extremely close games against inferior teams. They’ll lose to Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, though. I’ll break that one down later, but let’s just say that I don’t really care if they win or lose that; in fact, I kind of want them to win it, because I want to see them get blitzed by any of the other three teams in the Top-4. Then again, they still need to get by Florida this weekend…(upset alert?)
In the meantime, let’s check out the Top-10 from this weekend (with an emphasis on why the Top-7 teams should be in the Top-4, and why they shouldn’t).
1. With Arkansas’s second consecutive shut-out against a ranked SEC team, the SEC West now has all seven teams bowl eligible – the first time that’s ever happened. It’s fitting that the best Division, top-to-bottom, we’ve seen, maybe ever, will be heavily represented in bowl games. Wow, that was a lot of commas.
2. With yet another second half collapse in the second half of the season, Nebraska’s in danger of losing four games (if they lose @ Iowa this weekend) for the seventh straight season; certainly not Nebraska standards, but also maybe the new norm. But, for me, it’s not just that Nebraska is losing, it’s how they’re losing. Getting blown out by Big 10 teams late in the season, and losing at home after building comfortable leads is starting (continuing?) to wear on the Husker faithful. But, I said it last week; they better not fire Pelini unless they have a committed replacement – and that replacement better be Scott Frost.
3. Speaking of mediocre finishes, Notre Dame has given up 30 or more points for the sixth straight game, the first time that's happened in all 126 seasons of Irish football. Sure, injuries and suspensions have played a part, not to mention their turnover prone offense putting the defense in tough spots all year, but yikes, it’s been a rough second half for the Irish. And of course they head down to Southern California this weekend to take on USC, so it’s likely to get even rougher. I said it all year (okay, except for maybe one week), the Irish were not a Top-10 team this year, despite the good start (against crappy opponents) and the close loss to undefeated FSU (who wouldn’t be in the Top-10 if they had lost that). Look for Kelly’s name to come up for the Florida job, or likely even some NFL jobs. And if Nebraska is going to be a tough spot to find a quality replacement, I don’t even know where Notre Dame goes with their search.
4. I still say Florida State is the #1 team in the land until they lose. That’s just how it should work. Defending champs, Heisman trophy winner, 27 game winning streak, and part of a Power 5 conference (sorry Marshall). If you’re not going to value undefeatedness (if that’s even a word), then maybe Arkansas should be considered for the Top-4 considering how they’re playing right now. And, there’s that old adage in sports that you’re #1 until your beaten. I don’t like ‘em, I hope they lose, I think they’ll lose, but in the meantime, FSU should be #1.
5. The UofSuck loss is looking better and better for Oregon, and let’s not forget they were a stupid celebration penalty away from forcing UofSuck into a FG try late in that game. Things could’ve easilty ended differently. The Michigan State win isn’t as impressive, but it’s still the most impressive non-conference win for the Top-7 teams. The PAC-12 South surge will help Oregon as well, as would a rematch against UofSuck in the PAC-12 title game (where Oregon would win this time by three TDs). Yep, Oregon deserves a shot in the Top-4 (assuming they win out).
6. The Tide has looked shaky at times, and dominant at times; and anyone who comes out of the SEC-West with only one loss deserves a shot. If they win the SEC it’s a no-brainer, and if they lose to Auburn or in the SEC Championship game, they’re rightfully out. Interestingly enough, Alabama would’ve been in the playoff last year, considering their only blemish was that 109-yard FG return in the Iron Bowl. Which gets us to…
7. Mississippi State. If they win the Egg Bowl and Alabama wins the Iron Bowl, Mississippi State is stuck at 11-1, and with (in my opinion) a very rightful claim to #4. They’re only loss would’ve been to the Champion of the best Division by far this year (and maybe ever?), in a relatively close game. Sure, Alabama defense shut down the Bulldogs for three and half quarters, but Mississippi State’s defense also played well enough to keep them in that game. But, whether or not MSU gets #4 will have nothing to do with them, but what happens with Baylor, Ohio State, and committee’s perception about SEC fatigue.
8. We all know Baylor’s non-conference schedule was bad (then again, so were many other teams, and some could say Florida State’s in-conference schedule is bad), but they did beat TCU and Oklahoma in the conference. If they win out, they win the Big-12, and have the head-to-head over TCU. That should be enough to get them ranked above TCU. But will it be enough to get them to #4? Well, Kansas State can save us this entire problem by beating Baylor on December 6th. And if not, that’s another quality win for the Bears. If it comes down to Baylor or TCU for #4, I have to take Baylor for having the head-to-head advantage against TCU. But that also means they’re going to need at least a Mississippi State loss.
9. But, one thing that TCU’s resume brings to the table the following: they are 3-1 versus current AP Top-25 teams; out of the Top-7 teams, they’re the only one that has played four current Top-25 (Oregon’s played three; everyone else two) and beaten three current Top-25. Should Minnesota beat Wisconsin this weekend, and Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game, you have to give serious consideration to TCU – they’d be a conference co-champ (with their only loss on the road to the other co-champ) and also would’ve beaten any Power 5 champ. But, as good of a story as Minnesota has been, I don’t see them winning both of those games. So, TCU needs a bit of help, and perhaps a committee that will be gun shy about putting two SEC teams into the playoff which could result in a championship game played between two SEC-West teams. Again. Part of the reason we have the playoff is to avoid seeing that again.
10. Finally, Ohio State is sneaking up in the polls, but I still can’t get over the loss to a now 5-6 Virginia Tech at home early in the season. Of all the one-loss teams, that’s by far the worst loss. At least Baylor’s loss was on the road, following the emotional win against TCU, to a pretty good West Virginia Team that played Alabama, TCU, and Kansas State to games decided by 10, 1, and 6. I just don’t see a way for Ohio State to get there, unless TCU, Baylor, and Mississippi State all lose. And I don’t think that’s going to happen. The final thing that’s not going to happen, but would be interesting if it did: FSU loses to Georgia Tech, Oregon loses to ASU/UofA, Alabama loses to Auburn, Mississippi State loses to Ole Miss, Missouri beats whoever comes out of the SEC West in the SEC Championship, Ohio State holds serve. We could wind up with TCU, Baylor, Georgia (a 2-loss team who didn’t win their Division), and Ohio State in the Top-4. Think that would shake things up a bit?
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (11-0) – Living dangerously, but still undefeated.
#2. Oregon (10-1) – Flyin’ high.
#3. Alabama (10-1) – The Iron Bowl is here!
#4. Mississippi State (10-1) – Eggs, anyone?
#5. Baylor (9-1) – No love for the likely Big-12 Champs!
#6. TCU (9-1) – Best resume of any Top-10 team?
#7. Ohio State (10-1) – September 6th is sooooo long ago.
#8. Georgia (9-2) – Is it me, or does Georgia always lose two games but then find themselves back in the Top-10?
#9. Michigan State (9-2) – Two pretty good losses, but zero pretty good wins.
#10. UCLA (9-2) – Too far behind with too little time left.
Heisman Watch:
Marcus Mariota – Unless Oregon State pulls the upset in the Civil War, Mariota has the Heisman wrapped up.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Mississippi State
#2 Oregon v. #3 Alabama
Championship: Florida State v. Alabama – Sticking with my preseason prediction, at least for another week.
Week 14 Big Games:
TCU @ Texas – With wins against Texas and Iowa State, TCU can share the Big-12 and possibly get to #4 in the Playoff rankings. Many are saying that Texas is surging, but let’s look at their schedule. Their five Big-12 wins are against the bottom five in the Big-12, so the reason they appear to be surging late in the year is because they played Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State earlier in the year. And, after nearly blowing it against Kansas two weeks ago, TCU will come into this one focused and ready to go. I like TCU to win, and win big: 48 to 27.
Stanford @ UCLA – UCLA can win the PAC-12 South with a victory here, and for Stanford to pull the upset, it’s pretty easy: score points. Stanford is 0-5 when scoring 17 or less and 6-0 when scoring more than 17. In recent years, this is the type of matchup where I think Stanford would prevail: short week, UCLA off a big win over USC, PAC-12 South on-the-line pressure, etc. But, this isn’t the Stanford of years past. I think Stanford gets to 20+, but I also think UCLA gets almost double that. UCLA 37 Stanford 24.
Arizona State @ Arizona – These teams won’t know if they’re playing for the PAC-12 South or not (as Stanford/UCLA is at the same time), but in the Territorial Cup, that doesn’t matter. As is usually the case, the inter-state rivalry games have been close and crazy the last several years with seven of the last ten decided by seven or less. Also, as usual, you can throw out home field advantage – the road team has won four out of the last five. But, the big interest in this game, this year, is that both have nine wins together for the first time since 1975, and both are ranked coming into this one for the first time since 1986. The key in this one will be ASU’s defense (or lack thereof) against either UofSuck’s injured QB, or their backup who has never started a game. ASU’s pressure defense is prone to big plays, but also to giving up big plays. And in a rivalry game, there will be big plays; and lots of them. UofSuck 52 ASU 45.
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss – Dreams of an undefeated matchup in the Egg Bowl went south pretty quick, with Ole Miss dropping three straight SEC games and Mississippi State dropping a game against Alabama. Mississippi State needs this one against “that school from up north” to remain in the playoff discussion and the key to this one will be, of course, which Bo Wallace shows up. I’m betting on Bad Bo. Mississippi State 34 Ole Miss 23
Georgia Tech @ Georgia – It’s been since 1966 that these two teams have such good records coming into the game known as “Clean, Old Fashioned Hate.” But, despite my early pick that Georgia Tech beats Florida State in the ACC Championship next weekend, I’ve gotta go with Georgia in this one. Why? Well, Mark Richt is 12-1 against the Yellow Jackets. No more Gurley, but Chubb will continue doing what he’s been doing all year, running downhill. Georgia 34 Georgia Tech 27.
Minnesota @ Wisconsin – The battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe has extra meaning this year, as the winner goes to the Big 10 Championship game. Minnesota is a two-TD underdog, but that hasn’t stopped them all year. The problem for Minnesota is that they haven’t won in Madison in 20 years, and Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon is healthy while Minnesota’s top back, David Cobb, is not. Look for Minnesota to do exactly what Iowa tried to do last week – stop Gordon and force Wisconsin to throw. That didn’t work out well for Iowa, as Gordon averaged 6.5 yards/carry on 30+ carries. I like Wisconsin to tire out Minnesota and get the win, but not by as big as Vegas thinks: Wisconsin 30 Minnesota 24.
Week 14 Game of the Week:
Auburn @ Alabama – The winner of the Iron Bowl has played in the National Championship the last five years, and we don’t need to recap last year’s incredible game. Though, it would only take a second (that’s for you, Geno). Alabama is once again a ~10 point favorite in this one, but there’s one very interesting stat to look at. In the last 10 years, Auburn is 6-0 against Alabama when they’re ranked, and 0-4 when they’re not. But, the difference this year is the wheels are coming off at Auburn, while Alabama is peaking. Roll Tide. Alabama 27 Auburn 20.
Until next time…
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