Disclaimer: I watched no football this weekend; I was out in the woods chasing deer around (errrr……drinking beer by a campfire), and cell service was spotty at best, so I wasn’t even able to keep up on my app. Yes, I missed Notre Dame almost losing to Navy. So, rather than the usual weekend recap, let’s just talk quickly about where things stand after week 10.
The latest scenario in the SEC (and certainly helped out by what’s going on in the other conferences) has an outside chance that the SEC may not have one team in the playoffs, let alone two, three or four. Let’s just say we wind up with an unbeaten FSU, and one loss champs in the PAC-12 (Oregon), Big 10 (Michigan State), and Big 12 (Baylor, TCU, or Kansas State). And, let’s just say we wind up with a five way tie for first in the SEC-West with everyone (except A&M and Arkansas, of course) at 6-2 in conference play (which is very plausible, by the way). And we know that the SEC-East Champion is going to have at least two losses (thanks to Georgia blowing it against Florida). Let’s say a two-to-three loss SEC-East Champ beats a two loss SEC-West team in the SEC Championship. Do you really send them to the Playoff? Conversely, do you send a two loss team from the SEC-West to the playoff that didn’t win their division? I don’t think so. So, there’s a not-too-far-fetched scenario where the playoff teams are FSU, Oregon, TCU, and Michigan State. That would officially end #SECbias forever. But, of course, that’s not how it’s all going to play out. And it will begin to really sort itself out this weekend: at least in the PAC-12 (Oregon @ Utah), Big 10 (Ohio State @ Michigan State), Big 12 (Kansas State @ TCU), and Notre Dame (@ ASU). The loser of these five games is officially out of the playoff. And, Alabama @ LSU has the potential to really start throwing a wrench in things should LSU pull the minor upset. At home. In Death Valley. At night.
The Top-10
#1. Florida State (8-0) – They just refuse to lose.
#2. Mississippi State (8-0) – Nothing says Week 11 SEC schedule like the Skyhawks from UT Martin coming to town! Wait, what?
#3. Auburn (7-1) – The LSU and Kansas State wins are continuing to be more and more impressive.
#4. Alabama (7-1) – LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn three of the next four weeks? I feel sorry for Western Carolina on 11/22 if things don’t go well the next two weeks.
#5. Oregon (8-1) – Don’t forget about Utah, a team that is playing more like Stanford than the real Stanford.
#6. TCU (7-1) – Found a way to escape Morgantown and that’s all that matters. Find a way to beat Kansas State this weekend, and the Big 12 should be yours, and quite possibly a #4 when it’s all said and done. But you still need Baylor to lose somewhere along the way.
#7. Michigan State (7-1) – Ironically, your signature win is your loss to Oregon.
#8. Notre Dame (7-1) – Sure, your only loss is to FSU, but you almost lost to North Carolina, Navy, and Stanford; and struggled at times with Syracuse and the Purdue.
#9. Baylor (7-1) – I’d like Kansas State here (as their only loss is to Auburn), but I can’t ignore that they have @ TCU, @ WVU, and @ Baylor left, while you have @ Oklahoma and v. Kansas State left. Advantage Baylor.
#10. Arizona State (7-1) – Catching Notre Dame at the right time (after Navy and with a bunch of injuries).
Heisman Watch:
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – If they remain undefeated through the close of voting, Dak is still the winner. But, Mariota’s coming on strong.
College Football Playoff Prediction:
#1 Florida State v. #4 Alabama
#2 Mississippi State v. #3 Oregon
Championship: Florida State v. Mississippi State – Though, I’d rather see Alabama v. Oregon.
Week 11 Big Games:
Oregon @ Utah – Let down game for Oregon after finally beating Stanford? Maybe. Especially since Utah is playing more like Stanford this year than Stanford is. Yet another Utah PAC-12 game decided by six or less in their O.T. loss to Arizona State. The problem though is that Utah doesn’t have the offense to keep up with Oregon. It’ll stay close for a bit, maybe into the second half; but look for Oregon to pull away late: Oregon 45 Utah 24.
Alabama @ LSU – Since losing to LSU in Tuscaloosa in the most exciting 9-6 game ever, Alabama has beaten LSU three straight, including two by 21 or more, and one of those for a National Championship. No secret what LSU will try to do on offense: run between the tackles. If Alabama can stop those and put LSU in obvious passing downs, it could be a long night for the Tigers. Conversely, which defense line will show up for LSU? The one that was trashed for 600+ yards rushing by Mississippi State and Auburn, or the one that has given up less than 100 yards a game during their three game SEC winning streak? Kiffin and Saban have the weapons to be a little more creative on offense, but that also brings turnovers into play, especially in a raucous atmosphere like Death Valley. Special teams, turnover margins, and the kicking game will decide this one. I’m leaning towards LSU, but whenever you start to count out Alabama is when they respond best. Alabama 27 LSU 17.
Ohio State @ Michigan State – Here we are in Week 11 and Ohio State is playing its first game this year against a ranked team? Wow. And if they win, they’re all of the sudden in playoff contention. But, they won’t. Michigan State is too strong on both lines, and Ohio State has struggled with average teams such as Navy, Penn State, and even Cincinnati. Michigan State keeps its hopes alive: MSU 41 Ohio State 34.
Notre Dame @ Arizona State – After Notre Dame lost to Navy in 2007 after 43 straight victories against them, an alarming trend has emerged: counting that year, Notre Dame is 5-3 against Navy, but in their games immediately following the Navy game they are 2-5 with their only victories against teams that finished with losing records that year. And, just this year other college teams are 2-6 the week after they play Navy. Notre Dame is beat up on defense and living dangerously on offense. Arizona State is playing well on both sides of the ball, and it’s going to be warm in Tempe (especially for November). Look for ASU to beat the Irish in a low scoring, turnover filled game: ASU 27 Notre Dame 24
Baylor @ Oklahoma – Baylor has never won in Norman. There’s a first time for everything. Baylor 52 Oklahoma 38.
Week 11 Game of the Week:
Kansas State @ TCU – TCU barely survived that trap game in Morgantown, and now they get Kansas State at home with a chance to stay in contention in the Big 12 and the Playoff. Kansas State could’ve beaten Auburn, but that also could’ve easily lost to Iowa State and Oklahoma. And looking at Oklahoma, the margins of victory by KSU and TCU against Oklahoma are pretty similar (one and four points). If this was in Manhattan, I’d give the nod to Kansas State, but I think that TCU will be a bit looser being back at home, and they’re still playing with a chip on their shoulder after blowing that 21 point lead with 11 minutes left against Baylor. TCU 34 Kansas State 28
Until next time…
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